China’s updated drone export rules will cover the engines in Russia’s Geran attack drones, Russia’s version of Iran’s Shahed, Ukraine’s sanctions commissioner Vladyslav Vlasiuk said on 27 October. He cited a clarification from China’s Commerce Ministry, Ukrainska Pravda’s defense desk Oboronka reported. The license requirement takes effect on 18 November.

Licensing itself isn’t new. China has required permits for some drone engines since September 2023. Even so, Chinese engines kept reaching Russian drone plants, some shipped as refrigeration units, Reuters reported. Russia’s jet-powered Gerans rely fully on Chinese turbojets, HUR deputy chief Vadym Skibitskyi has said. So the update’s value lies in enforcement, not in the list.

Three agencies, one list

Beijing issued the update in a joint announcement by the Commerce Ministry, the General Administration of Customs, and the Central Military Commission’s Equipment Development Department. Announcement No. 49 bars exports of listed drone items without a license, including specially designed autopilots and certain drone engines. China will approve applications that comply with the rules, a Commerce Ministry spokesperson added.

Vlasiuk said the core of Russia’s long-range strike drones has formally come under control. He named engines for Gerans, turbojets for their jet versions, autopilots, and jam-resistant navigation. The announcement lists anti-jam navigation as a technology, not as hardware. He called the step an opening for Ukraine because Beijing now formally takes responsibility for these categories. Kyiv will press for the rules to be applied to known suppliers of Russia’s arms industry and, with partners, track licenses, transit routes, and re-exports, he said.

Permits, refusals, and FPV parts

Licensing does not mean a ban, Vlasiuk stressed. Exporters China deems reliable can get general permits for up to three years, while the rules leave broad grounds for refusal. The new thresholds do not cover motors and speed controllers for FPV drones, batteries, cameras, or optical fiber, he added.

The rules do cover brushless motors that meet all of these: at least 48 volts, at least 3 kW, a power density of at least 3 kW per kilogram, and no more than 3,000 rpm. Their speed controllers are covered too, Militarnyi reported. Russia could still obtain parts with Beijing’s approval, the outlet noted. Ukraine, without such close ties, could face delays, inspections, and higher costs.

One morning in June, the head of export at Ukrainian drone company Stellarion found himself unexpectedly in need of a U-Haul outside the Detroit Metro Airport in Michigan.

Stellarion was set to test its drones in front of American soldiers at a competition organized by the Pentagon at Camp Grayling,

Fighter jets, including F-16s, Mirage aircraft, and MiG-29s, play a significant role in intercepting Russian jet-powered drones, according to the General Staff.

Key developments on Oct. 26:

• Ukrainian forces carry out 2 aerial evacuations of wounded soldiers, video shows
• Death toll from Russian attack on park in Kharkiv Oblast on Oct. 19 rises to 6 after child dies in hospital
• Ukraine strikes Russian plant producing missile, bomb batteries in Yelets, General Staff

In a cornfield north of Kyiv, pieces of blackened metal are scattered among rows of dried stalks. They are all that remains of a Russian Geran attack drone, shot down by Ukrainian fighter jets as it flew toward the capital during one of Russia's mass aerial assaults.

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The Bars jet powered drone has a range of 1,000 kilometers and can reach speeds of up to 700 kilometers per hour.

As of October, Russia has up to 700 ballistic and several thousand cruise missiles in reserve, and its 2026 state order for Geran-type drones and decoys such as the Gerbera exceeded 100,000 units, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) told NV in figures the outlet published on 20 October. The missile stocks are roughly the same as HUR reported to NV in July, the outlet found.

Ukraine enters the heating season facing what it says is a Russian plan to hit 60 infrastructure sites this winter. HUR’s figures suggest Russia has the weapons for it, even after its fall mass strikes. In June, HUR said Russia could fire up to 100 ballistic missiles a month while keeping its stocks steady. Its drone output, meanwhile, is shifting to jets that are harder to shoot down.

Russia produces 110 ballistic missiles a month

Russia can make more than 200 missiles a month, 110 of them ballistic, HUR said. About 115 of its ballistic missiles are Iskander-Ms, with production of up to 65 a month. A modernized Iskander with a projected range of 550 to 700 km is in development.

At the same time, Russia holds up to 400 S-300PM and S-400 air defense missiles adapted to strike ground targets, and makes about 40 a month. Meanwhile, Kinzhal production has been temporarily paused over poor accuracy, and the capacity has gone to conventional ballistic missiles.

Most new Kalibrs go into reserve

Russia plans to make more than 80 Kh-101 cruise missiles a month and is exceeding that, though defects in releasing them from aircraft have sent some batches back to the factories.

Russia has more than 450 Kalibrs and makes about 29 a month. Because Ukrainian air defense downs them effectively, Russia sends most new ones to its strategic reserve and to equip its fleets, HUR said. It also holds more than 600 Oniks anti-ship missiles, upgraded for ground strikes, and more than 120 Zircons.

Russia now assembles 4,000 jet drones a month

Russia holds a reserve of about 6,200 Gerans and makes about 10,000 drones a month. Its main production hub is the Alabuga special economic zone in Tatarstan.

Since summer, Russia has shifted toward turbojet drones. “The reason is the saturation of Ukraine’s Air Force with mobile fire groups that shoot down low-speed targets en masse,” HUR said. Russia now assembles about 4,000 jet drones a month, mostly Geran-4s and Geran-5s, which fly at 400 to 500 km/h. It also makes about 2,000 cheaper propeller-driven Geran-2s, which HUR said are used to wear down air defense and locate air defense positions.

A city stretches out beneath the lens of a Russian drone. Roads, apartment blocks, parks, and office buildings come into view as the weapon closes in on its target.

Footage like this has become all too familiar over the course of Russia's full-scale war, usually captured by small