What Lula’s victory means for Palestine solidarity in Brazil
Over the weekend, Brazilians elected Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva president once more by a very narrow margin, defying polls that had him trailing. No candidate had won a Brazilian runoff from second place since 1989. That precedent is broken, and it was broken from below: by student-led rallies in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Porto Alegre.
The rallies were called without Lula, by pop-star fan communities and influencers who injected energy into a campaign that had flagged all year, and by widespread mass communications like Deputy André Janones's WhatsApp channel, which passed 10 million followers. Many of those young figures have been vocal on Palestine. Their job now is to make sure their government hears them.
That mobilisation will matter all the more given the political landscape Lula faces. The Congress that convenes on 1 February will comprise 594 members, 513 deputies and 81 senators, with the right and its allies holding a comfortable majority in both houses. With 90 members close to the Palestinian struggle, the challenge will be to turn that support, alongside pressure from civil society, into concrete political action.
Palestine
Lula's words have been strong in recent years. He recognised the State of Palestine in 2010, the first in South America to do so, condemned the genocide in Gaza as early as October 2023, and did not back down when the Israeli colonial regime declared him persona non grata over his Holocaust comparison.
Brazil joined South Africa's case at the International Court of Justice and has had no ambassador in Tel Aviv since May 2024. His actions, however, were fewer. Diplomatic and trade relations with Israel were never fully cut. The Army’s planned purchase of 36 armoured howitzers from Elbit Systems was stalled in 2024 amid political opposition over military ties with Israel. The deal resurfaced in October 2026 after Brazilian defence company Avibras, reached an agreement with Elbit’s Brazilian subsidiary, AEL Sistemas, paving the way for local assembly.
The proposed purchase, worth almost $200 million, remained controversial after renewed public backlash, and the army subsequently cancelled the planned signing of the initial contract for two units. However, the wider procurement was not cancelled.
Lula has always been a conciliator. But a fourth and last term with popular backing opens room for much bolder steps, including ending trade relations with illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, withdrawing from the Mercosur–Israel Free Trade Agreement, imposing a total embargo on weapons and technology transfers with the Zionist regime, and investigating and halting any indirect exports of Brazilian oil through third-country intermediaries.
The recognition of Palestine itself came at the end of his second term, and was then seen as his last.
For Palestinian solidarity movements, Lula’s victory above all means keeping the conditions they work under today, which are far more favourable than those a Flávio government would offer. The government remains open to dialogue with civil society, its own rhetoric lends legitimacy to the cause, and the state does not throw its weight behind the campaign against it.
Holding the line
Lula's government is not immune to Zionist lobbies, however. They continue to influence leaders close to the president and elected officials within his Workers' Party (PT) and Congress, where it needs centrist allies.
Even under Lula, part of the work will be to contest the government itself.
The institutional climate will remain turbulent. The reaction from Bolsonaro's supporters, especially if backed by Trump, is a challenge the PT anticipates. But the balance has shifted. Flávio will lose the privileged forum his Senate seat gives him, and with investigations advancing, he could face arrest.
Eduardo Bolsonaro, second in the family's line of command, is a fugitive in the United States after a Supreme Court justice issued an arrest warrant and cancelled his passports. He was sentenced to four years and two months for coercing the judicial process through lobbying Washington for sanctions against Brazilian magistrates.
From Florida, he has advised his brother to flee if defeated and joked about US Marines intervening. The family cannot hold political capital while their assets disperse.
Lula's path is to strengthen republican institutions – the Supreme Court included –, but he would be boxed in by a Senate taken over by the Bolsonarista party, which confirms justices and can impeach them.
Sustained public mobilisation in the streets and online could also help expose the networks of corruption and patronage that sustain the far-right’s power in Congress. Investigations into Banco Master and parliamentary budget amendments could weaken some of these networks and make it harder for politicians to convert economic power into political influence.
For the Palestinian movement, this matters. Challenging the interests that protect Zionist politicians is part of building a Congress more accountable to the public and less willing to enable complicity in the occupation.
Brazil’s importance in the region and to the cause is based on many factors; Brazil holds a third of Latin America's population and GDP, its main instrument abroad has never been economic or military might but diplomacy, and the country has built its influence on multilateralism, mediation and coalitions such as the BRICS. Gains made in Brazil tend to spread, as the wave of recognition of Palestine that followed 2010 showed.
In the region, Brazil is now an exception. Seven South American governments are aligned with Donald Trump, and Brazil is the largest country still holding out. Israel and the United States – as governments but also through Big Tech companies like META - invested here for years to change that. They have failed, for now.
Ultimately, a generation of young political figures carried this campaign, vocal on Palestine and with a strong presence online. In a contest increasingly fought on social media, a terrain the right had long dominated, the left has begun to close the gap. The platforms themselves are part of that dispute, and Meta's seeming interference in the campaign has become a matter of national and international debate.
The dispute over Brazil's public digital payment system (PIX) has also exposed US interest in challenging a model that threatens the dominance of American payment companies.
Furthermore, Brazil has a vibrant independent press that is often more receptive to the Palestinian cause. The country’s media landscape also includes major broadcasters such as TV Globo (formerly Rede Globo), Brazil’s largest television network and one of the country’s most influential media organisations. Its televised political debates attract large audiences and shape public discussion, with their coverage and political implications often resonating beyond Brazil’s borders.
Internationally, Lula's surprising victory and popular mobilisation must inspire and trickle to other countries where people are protesting in their masses against growing authoritarianism, fascism and neoliberal economic policies - all aligned with the Zionist regime - in France, India, Spain, and Serbia.
The pendulum is likely to swing in Brazil by 2030, and the next four years must be used to build irreversible actions toward liberation.
Rula Shadeed is the Co-Director of the Palestine Institute for Public Diplomacy.
Follow Rula on Instagram: @pipdbrasil and X: @rabetbypipd
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Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.
