The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has confirmed that an image that has been circulating online for years does indeed show an experimental Chinese reusable spaceplane in orbit. A newly released higher-resolution copy of the image underscores that the design is nearly a dead ringer for the X-37B miniature space shuttles now operated by the U.S. Space Force.

DIA included the higher-resolution image of the Chinese spaceplane in a new unclassified report on global security challenges outside of the Earth’s atmosphere, which was released yesterday. A satellite belonging to Maxar Technologies (now Vantor) captured the image, but when exactly remains unclear. It does have a 2024 copyright date.

The image shows a miniature space shuttle-like design with small wings and twin vertical tails. It also has upward-opening doors above a central payload bay. There is also an extension at the tail end with solar panels seen deployed on either side. There are what look to be side-by-side ventral bays, which are likely for the main gear in a tricycle landing gear configuration. Overall, the core design is extremely similar to that of the U.S. X-37B, which also features tricycle landing gear and can also be fitted with an extended payload module at the tail. One major difference is that the wings on the Chinese design have a much longer chord compared to the X-37B.

“A key capability for reusable space activities are spaceplanes like this PRC [People’s Republic of China] Spaceplane captured by Maxar. Spaceplanes can launch into orbit to place objects in space or even test them and return to earth [sic],” reads the caption to the picture in DIA’s report.

As noted, the basic fact of the existence of this image is not new. U.S. Space Force Col. John Patrick, then head of U.S. Space Forces-Korea (SPACEFOR-KOR), included a much lower-resolution version in a presentation at the Open Space Forum in South Korea in 2024. It was also not immediately clear at that time whether or not the picture simply showed an X-37B. TWZ had reached out at the time to the U.S. Space Force and Maxar for more information, and both had declined to comment. Two X-37Bs were built, and they have been sent on eight orbital missions, in total, since 2010. The Orbital Test Vehicle 8 (OTV-8) mission was launched on August 22, 2025.

X-37B in orbit photographed by ground-based telescopes？ pic.twitter.com/YPj8I4cQmZ

— 笑脸男人 (@lfx160219) November 8, 2024

China is understood to have conducted four separate orbital spaceplane missions using the same experimental vehicle since 2020. Three of those missions had concluded before Col. Patrick gave his presentation. The most recent launch occurred on February 7 of this year, and the vehicle has not yet returned, at least as far as we are aware.

On the third mission, which lasted from December 14, 2023, to September 6, 2024, the Chinese spaceplane was observed releasing multiple smaller objects into orbit. What those payloads may have been remains unknown, but they could have been released from the main payload bay, which is seen open in the on-orbit image. The bay could have opened without any subsequent release of objects on either of the two prior missions, as well.

As an aside, the spaceplane appears to have released at least one more object earlier this year in the course of its latest mission.

A secretive airbase in the northwest end of China, sporting one of the longest runways in the world at 16,400 feet, looks to be where the spaceplane has landed after missions. The facility, which has been expanded massively in recent years, is now loosely akin to America’s top-secret proving ground at Area 51, and has been the site of other advanced aviation test efforts.

DIA’s report also says that “China has two primary spaceplane models: the Shenlong and Tengyun,” but does not specify which one is seen in the image. The name Shenlong has been commonly used to refer to the spaceplane China has been experimenting with to date. Images said to show a prototype or test article of this design slung underneath an H-6 bomber for testing purposes had emerged in 2007.

The state-run China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) unveiled the Tengyun design in 2016 as part of a so-called two-stage-to-orbit system that uses a mothership aircraft flying within the atmosphere as part of the launch method rather than a traditional space launch rocket. As of 2020, CASIC was aiming for a live test of Tengyun in 2025, but it is not immediately clear whether or not that occurred.

There have been other spaceplane developments in China in recent years. This includes designs from the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) and Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) subsidiary Chengdu. The design from Chengdu is called Haolong and has been in development officially as an option for resupplying the country’s Tiangong space station.

They seem not only got a model but also a full-scale prototype.
HaoLong-1 cargo spaceplane https://t.co/VI1Yoh3sRj pic.twitter.com/Dthfd1gi1v

— CNSPACE (@CNSpaceflight) November 11, 2024

In general, “spaceplanes are … reusable and feature enhanced maneuverability, making them more suitable for certain missions than traditional satellites,” DIA’s report notes.

TWZ has highlighted in the past how reusable space shuttle-like vehicles offer ideal platforms for rapidly deploying small satellites and any other payloads into orbit. In this way, they can be critical assets for space-based experimentation, as well as operational activities. This could include intelligence gathering, and even on-orbit attacks, areas of clear interest to the Chinese government.

As we often mention in the context of the X-37B, spaceplanes also have distinct advantages when it comes to rendezvousing with and maneuvering very close to other objects in space. They can execute course changes and other maneuvers in ways that traditional satellites cannot. All of this only underscores their potential as weapon systems, as well as for gathering intelligence. The fact that a Maxar (now Vantor) satellite took an on-orbit picture – a service the company is known to offer – of a Chinese spaceplane further highlights the kind of cat-and-mouse games that are increasingly emerging in space. The general risks posed by these kinds of activities were recently thrust into the public eye by the unprecedentedly close shadowing of a commercial radar imaging satellite tied to Ukraine by another satellite belonging to Russia.

China has been making massive investments, in general, in new space-based intelligence and other capabilities in recent years. Chinese space developments have now also extended into reusable space launch rocket boosters. Space launch company LandSpace became the first in China to achieve a successful recovery of a reusable space launch rocket booster on land in August. That followed CASC’s successful recovery of a reusable space launch rocket booster at sea using a specially configured ship the month before.

In general, “access to space traditionally requires expendable spacecraft: single-use launch vehicles, satellites, and one-time use capsules designed to maximize performance. Reliance on expendable vehicles has made access to space expensive and exclusive,” DIA’s report explains. “Reusable technologies, while even more difficult and expensive to develop and build, stand to greatly reduce the cost of spaceflight by recovering, refurbishing, and reusing rocket stages, fairings, and capsules.”

Chinese spaceplanes, one of which we have not definitively gotten a view of in orbit, look set to become an increasingly important part of this growing ecosystem.

Update: 6:32 PM ET –

Vantor has now provided an additional copy of the image of the Chinese spaceplane, elements of which look to be redacted, and some additional details. The company has confirmed it was taken on May 28, 2024, by the WorldView-3 satellite at a range of just under 56 miles (90 kilometers).

“There is a separate satellite docked to the aft section of the vehicle whose structure and solar arrays are visible,” Vantor also told us. “The spacecraft’s payload bay doors are visibly open.”

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

The post U.S. Intel Confirms This Is China’s Secret Spaceplane (Updated) appeared first on TWZ.

Boeing targets 52 jets a month in the second half of 2027 and expects $10 billion in annual free cash flow in 2029

Elon Musk is under attack! Countless Democrats are admitting they plan to investigate or even jail him if they take back power on Congress in the midterms. They can't tell you what he specifically did wrong, but they'll come up with something.

Just as bad, or even worse, however, is that some of his critics want to nationalize his companies, including Starlink, which provides crucial infrastructure to Ukraine. Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, a far-left populist Democrat, thinks Starlink is too important to be left under Musk's control, and that the federal government would do a better job administering it. I doubt that, but let's hear what he had to say:

NEW: Robert Reich calls for the "defunding" of Elon Musk, calls for Democrats to go after Musk's companies.

"Democrats ought to [start] laying the groundwork for nationalizing Starlink & SpaceX… It should be a public corporation."

Does he want Musk to drop another $50M on the… pic.twitter.com/0jiljf0CtG

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 25, 2026

From the horse's mouth: Reich thinks Democrats should be laying the groundwork to nationalize Starlink and SpaceX. This idea is crazy and reckless—and even dangerous. Here's why.

Now it's important to go over some of the background here. Starlink is a product that Ukraine uses to provide internet to its people, but only for civilian uses. Musk has maintained that while he is very happy to provide internet to Ukraine in the face of unrelenting invasion, Starlink cannot be used for offensive military purposes, because this would make his satellites a legitimate target of Russia in terms of their war effort. We want to avoid that. Separately, Starshield, a different system, is administered by the Pentagon, and Musk claims he has no control over it.

What happened last week is that a slowdown of the Starshield system resulted in reduced effectiveness of Ukraine's counterstrikes against Russia. And look, that was a problem. I traveled to Ukraine earlier this summer as part of a delegation arranged by a pro-Ukrainian nonprofit. I saw up close how important Starshield is to the defense of a free Ukraine. Moreover, there's entirely too much griping about Ukraine coming from some corners of right-wing media. Some people often seem to forget that Russia is invading Ukraine, not the other way around. It's Russia that won't accept a peace deal. When President Donald Trump called for an immediate ceasefire, Ukraine stopped hitting energy infrastructure in Russia—but Russia kept attacking anyway. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has agreed to immediately stop fighting and freeze the conflict along the current lines, just like Trump wants. It's Russian President Vladimir Putin who won't negotiate.

We don't know for sure who ordered the Starshield slowdown. The U.S. government has denied doing so. Musk has, however, claimed Ukraine violated the terms of service of Starlink, using it for offensive military purposes, and thus that system was slowed down. I understand why that might be frustrating for the Ukrainians, but the fact is that it's Musk's company, so he makes the rules. It belongs to him.

And importantly, it has to stay that way. Nationalizing the company would be an insane step to take in response to a tech owner having a say in how his product is used. Do we really trust the government to operate these companies as efficiently as their founders? Of course not. Moreover, in this specific case, it might bring us closer to a direct confrontation with Russia—and as much as it's a good thing to undermine the Russian conquest of Ukraine, we do not want to start World War III.

And there are the broader philosophical harms. We are experiencing an unprecedented flourishing in the tech space, with AI, driverless cars, robotics, and such. When the government nationalizes a successful tech company, it sends a warning to all the others: If you're too good at what you do, we might take you over. We might punish you. This disincentivizes investment and innovation at a time when they're desperately needed.

Nationalizing Musk's companies is doing Ukraine no favors. But it will hurt America's interests too. We want to encourage Musk, Jeff Bezos, Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg, and all the rest to compete with one another to design products that make life better, earning them profits along the way. It doesn't work if the government butts in. Unfortunately, far-left thinkers like Reich, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.), and many of the people who are about to be elected to Congress for the first time actually want to slow down the pace of tech. That's how much they hate Musk.

The post Democrats Want to Punish Elon Musk. Nationalizing SpaceX Would Punish Innovation. appeared first on Reason Magazine.

Une équipe internationale, menée par des scientifiques de l'Université de Toulouse, aurait détecté, pour la première fois de façon directe, le champ magnétique d'une exoplanète grâce au spectropolarimètre SPIRou....

Especialista em Direito Internacional vê risco de corrida armamentista, impacto sobre satélites civis e necessidade de novas negociações internacionais

Por Júlia CARMO

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Os Estados Unidos reconheceram publicamente, pela primeira vez, que possuem armas de controle espacial posicionadas em órbita.

A confirmação foi feita pelo secretário da Força Aérea americana, Troy Meink, durante a Air, Space & Cyber Conference, em Maryland, e provocou reações imediatas de China e Rússia, que acusaram Washington de estimular uma nova etapa da corrida armamentista.

“Os Estados Unidos possuem armas de controle espacial em órbita capazes de defender a Força Conjunta contra ações hostis de adversários”, declarou Meink na segunda-feira (14).

O governo americano não informou quantos equipamentos estão no espaço, quais tecnologias utilizam nem se têm capacidade de destruição física de outros satélites.

A Força Espacial sustenta que a decisão responde ao desenvolvimento de capacidades espaciais e antiespaciais de Pequim e Moscou.

O reconhecimento público, entretanto, muda a forma como essa disputa é apresentada, até agora, Washington mantinha em sigilo a existência de armas efetivamente posicionadas em órbita.

Para Cássio Eduardo Zen, doutor em Direito Internacional e docente de Direito Internacional Público e Privado no Centro Universitário de Pinhais (Fapi), o episódio deve ser analisado com cautela.

“Precisamos nos recordar de que, na década de 1980, o presidente Ronald Reagan fez o programa Star Wars. Então, essa história de militarização do espaço não é uma novidade. Já foi aplicada ou discutida outras vezes”, contextualiza Zen.

Programa Star Wars

O especialista se refere à Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), anunciada por Ronald Reagan em março de 1983.

O projeto, apelidado de “Star Wars”, previa pesquisas para criar um sistema capaz de interceptar mísseis balísticos, inclusive com tecnologias baseadas no espaço.

O programa se transformou em um dos principais pontos de tensão entre Estados Unidos e União Soviética durante a fase final da Guerra Fria.

A União Soviética argumentava que a iniciativa poderia levar armas ao espaço e alterar o equilíbrio nuclear.

Documentos históricos do Departamento de Estado mostram que Moscou chegou a propor negociações para proibir a colocação de armamentos em órbita durante as discussões provocadas pela SDI.

Zen considera que esse histórico é importante antes de interpretar o anúncio atual como uma ruptura completa.

“É preciso perguntar até que ponto isso representa uma efetiva militarização e até que ponto pode ser uma provocação. Vindo do governo Trump, é possível que exista algum exagero na forma como essa informação está sendo apresentada”, pondera o professor.

Diferentemente da década de 1980, porém, o anúncio atual não trata apenas de pesquisa.

A própria Força Aérea americana afirmou oficialmente que existem hoje “on-orbit space control weapons”, ou armas de controle espacial em órbita.

Armas desconhecidas

A natureza desses equipamentos é uma das principais dúvidas. O governo dos EUA não informou se os sistemas são cinéticos, capazes de atingir fisicamente outro objeto, ou não cinéticos, como equipamentos de interferência eletromagnética, sistemas cibernéticos ou tecnologias capazes de bloquear ou desativar satélites sem destruí-los.

Lasers, interferência eletromagnética e ataques aos enlaces de comunicação estão entre as tecnologias possíveis em operações espaciais.

A Força Espacial afirmou que suas capacidades podem ser empregadas de maneira defensiva e ofensiva para “afetar as capacidades do adversário”.

Essa falta de detalhes dificulta até mesmo determinar quais normas internacionais poderiam ser aplicadas.

“Se for comprovado que existe uma militarização incompatível com as normas internacionais, outros países podem questionar essa atuação e exigir mudanças de conduta”, afirma Zen.

O professor considera que respostas diplomáticas e econômicas também poderiam aparecer.

“Os outros Estados podem adotar medidas políticas e até sanções econômicas, dependendo do tipo de violação que venha a ser constatada”, acrescenta o advogado.

Regra internacional

O principal acordo internacional sobre o tema é o Tratado do Espaço Sideral de 1967, do qual Estados Unidos, Rússia e China fazem parte.

Existe, contudo, uma diferença jurídica importante, o tratado não proíbe genericamente todo uso militar da órbita terrestre.

O artigo 4º impede que os países coloquem em órbita armas nucleares ou outras armas de destruição em massa.

Também proíbe bases militares, testes de armas e manobras militares na Lua e em outros corpos celestes.

O texto não estabelece a mesma proibição geral para armas convencionais colocadas na órbita da Terra.

É justamente essa lacuna que complica a reação jurídica ao anúncio americano. Zen defende uma interpretação mais ampla do princípio de uso pacífico do espaço.

“O princípio geral de Direito Internacional aplicável ao espaço sideral é considerar esse ambiente destinado a finalidades pacíficas. O problema agora será saber exatamente que tipo de equipamento os Estados Unidos colocaram em órbita e qual é sua função”, explica o docente.

Por isso, uma eventual conclusão sobre ilegalidade dependerá do tipo de arma, da finalidade, de sua operação e de outros compromissos internacionais aplicáveis.

China reage

Pequim respondeu ao anúncio nesta terça-feira (15).

“Instamos o lado americano a parar de expandir suas capacidades militares e de se preparar para a guerra no espaço sideral”, afirmou Guo Jiakun, porta-voz do Ministério das Relações Exteriores da China.

O governo chinês há anos defende publicamente negociações para limitar uma corrida armamentista espacial.

Em manifestação anterior, o próprio Guo afirmou que a China se opõe à “transformação do espaço em armamento” e apoia a criação de instrumentos jurídicos específicos sobre o tema.

Washington apresenta uma versão diferente. A Força Espacial americana afirma que a China já desenvolve capacidades “espaciais e contraespaciais” como parte de sua modernização militar e utiliza esse avanço como uma das justificativas para o fortalecimento das próprias forças.

Essa dinâmica preocupa Zen porque cada potência pode utilizar as ações da rival para justificar novos investimentos.

“Os outros países podem se sentir legitimados a fazer exatamente o mesmo tipo de conduta. Aí, sim, existe o risco de uma corrida armamentista”, alerta o especialista.

Rússia reage

A Rússia adotou discurso semelhante ao chinês. “Contamos com uma ampla consolidação internacional para continuar trabalhando em prol da desmilitarização completa do espaço”, declarou Dmitri Peskov, porta-voz do Kremlin.

Segundo ele, Moscou considera que o espaço deveria permanecer “livre de qualquer arma”.

A defesa dessa posição não começou com o anúncio americano. Rússia e China apresentaram ao longo dos últimos anos propostas para um instrumento internacional juridicamente vinculante destinado a impedir a colocação de armas no espaço e o uso ou ameaça da força contra objetos espaciais.

Os próprios Estados Unidos, porém, acusam Moscou de desenvolver tecnologias antissatélite e de considerar o espaço como um domínio relevante para futuros conflitos.

Para Zen, essa combinação cria um problema típico de segurança internacional, uma potência diz estar se armando para responder à outra, enquanto a rival utiliza justamente essa decisão como justificativa para fazer o mesmo.

“Se China e Rússia entenderem que os Estados Unidos já colocaram armas no espaço e responderem com equipamentos equivalentes, entramos numa lógica em que cada novo passo é utilizado para justificar o próximo”, observa o professor.

Satélites civis

Uma corrida desse tipo não atingiria somente as Forças Armadas. Satélites são utilizados para comunicação, localização, meteorologia, transmissão de dados e diferentes atividades econômicas.

Equipamentos civis e militares compartilham regiões orbitais e frequências que precisam ser coordenadas internacionalmente.

“Se acontecer uma militarização mais intensa do espaço, especialmente envolvendo satélites, isso é extremamente preocupante para os usos civis”, ressalta Zen.

Segundo ele, a preocupação envolve tanto a ocupação do ambiente orbital quanto a possibilidade de interferência.

“Você pode ter risco de interferência, problemas na utilização de frequências e dificuldades para operações de satélites destinados à comunicação e a outros serviços civis”, detalha o especialista.

A União Internacional de Telecomunicações (UIT) administra internacionalmente o uso de frequências e posições orbitais para reduzir interferências prejudiciais.

A própria organização trata o espectro e a órbita geoestacionária como recursos limitados que exigem coordenação entre os países.

Risco brasileiro

Para o Brasil, o tema não é distante. O país utiliza satélites para telecomunicações, transmissão de televisão, internet, monitoramento ambiental, meteorologia e sistemas ligados a diferentes setores da economia.

Zen chama atenção especialmente para a necessidade de o Brasil acompanhar as negociações internacionais sobre utilização das órbitas e segurança dos equipamentos espaciais.

“Isso também é relevante para o Brasil. Precisamos prestar muito mais atenção ao que acontece no ambiente orbital e às consequências que uma escalada militar pode trazer para serviços dos quais dependemos”, defende o professor.

Ele também menciona os riscos associados ao crescimento do número de objetos em órbita.

“Outro problema é o lixo espacial. É um risco que muitas vezes recebe pouca atenção até que um objeto perca o controle, seja destruído ou passe a representar perigo para outros equipamentos”, destaca Zen.

A preocupação possui respaldo técnico. A NASA considera detritos orbitais uma das principais ameaças a espaçonaves e satélites.

Objetos pequenos viajam em velocidades tão elevadas que podem danificar ou destruir equipamentos.

Colisões também podem produzir novos fragmentos e aumentar progressivamente a quantidade de material perigoso em órbita.

Novas regras

Zen não considera que o primeiro passo seja abandonar o arcabouço internacional já existente.

“Na minha avaliação, o ponto inicial não é simplesmente criar uma nova norma, mas aplicar e desenvolver aquilo que já existe para preservar o uso pacífico do espaço”, afirma o especialista.

Ao mesmo tempo, o anúncio americano evidencia as limitações das regras formuladas há quase seis décadas.

Em 1967, o principal temor era colocar armas nucleares em órbita. Hoje, sistemas militares podem funcionar por interferência eletrônica, ataques cibernéticos, lasers ou tecnologias capazes de incapacitar um satélite sem utilizar explosivos.

Por isso, China e Rússia defendem há anos um novo tratado específico para impedir uma corrida armamentista espacial.

As negociações, porém, esbarram em divergências sobre definições, fiscalização e verificação das tecnologias utilizadas.

Efeito imediato

Até agora, a consequência mais concreta do anúncio é política. Os Estados Unidos confirmaram uma capacidade que mantinham em sigilo, China e Rússia responderam cobrando desmilitarização e o debate sobre armas espaciais voltou a ocupar as relações entre as três potências.

Ainda não existem informações suficientes para afirmar se o equipamento americano viola o Tratado do Espaço Sideral.

Washington não revelou se as armas carregam material de destruição em massa, nem mesmo a natureza técnica dos sistemas posicionados em órbita.

Zen, por isso, recomenda cautela antes de tratar o anúncio como prova de uma mudança completa nas regras militares globais.

“Eu ainda considero possível que exista uma dose de bravata nessa confirmação. Estamos falando de um governo que utiliza declarações fortes como instrumento político e de negociação”, avalia o professor.

Mas ele ressalta que, caso as armas sejam efetivamente operacionais e provoquem uma resposta equivalente das outras potências, o efeito poderá ultrapassar a disputa diplomática.

“O risco maior é China e Rússia fazerem exatamente a mesma coisa. Se cada lado passar a colocar novos sistemas militares no espaço porque o outro já fez isso, podemos entrar numa corrida armamentista com consequências que não ficam restritas aos militares”, conclui Zen.

Publicado originalmente por obrasilianista.com.br

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© Nasa/Swift/Cruz deWilde

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Elon Musk says it will mark major ‘milestone in the history of civilisation and consciousness’

© Nasa

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A Russian satellite, Kosmos 2612, may have passed within approximately 85 feet (26 meters) of a U.S.-registered satellite belonging to commercial imagery provider ICEYE. This would be an extraordinarily close and potentially dangerous pass-by for two objects in space traveling at thousands of miles per hour. For weeks beforehand, ICEYE-X36, which would be of special interest to Russia, had already found itself in increasingly close orbital alignment with its pursuer. The two satellites now look to be drifting further and further apart, but the episode has been a clear sign of what is to come as the potential for conflict in space only continues to grow.

Publicly available space tracking data from the satellitemap.space and orbitalradar.com websites show that Kosmos 2612 (also written sometimes Cosmos 2612 and abbreviated K2612) and ICEYE X36 had their especially close encounter at approximately 16:07 UTC today. Private space services company LeoLabs also told TWZ today that it could not “confirm or contradict what other data sources have stated publicly,” but that it has “high-confidence that the objects came within approximately [emphasis in the original] 500 meters [1,640 feet] of each other.” Kosmos 2612 had been making progressively closer passes by ICEYE X36 in recent days.

Short time-lapse of part of this morning’s first pass of ICEYE-X36 (59103) and COSMOS 2612 (68762) over South America under partly cloudy skies. pic.twitter.com/t8RhwmKcV4

— s2a systems (@s2a_systems) October 18, 2026

6/x
Note that while ICEYE-X36 was Finnish built, it is (like other ICEYE sats who's ownership transferred) no longer Finnish. It is registered in the US but might be Ukranian owned/leased now.

— Dr Marco Langbroek (@Marco_Langbroek) October 17, 2026

“COSMOS 2612 closed from hundreds of kilometers away to extreme proximity to ICEYE-X36. It then maneuvered around ICEYE-X36,  remained nearby for an extended period, and then began moving away,” LeoLabs also stated in a report assessing the situation, which was updated today and provided to TWZ. “The latest observations show the spacecraft strongly diverging and confirm that the close-proximity activity had ended.” 

LeoLabs’ broader assessment here is supported by data from other publicly available sources, as seen below.

UPDATE: Cosmos 2612 appears to have maneuvered following a close approach with the ICEYE satellite.

The latest TLEs show 2612 in a larger orbit that will drift away with no further maneuvers.

In this animation, I fit an impulsive burn to bridge 2612’s previous TLE to its most… https://t.co/owzTZiijka pic.twitter.com/RBqGDvVH9H

— Adam Cohen (@AdamCohen8) October 18, 2026

Additional context

None of the distances stated earlier may seem especially close, let alone worrisome, by terrestrial standards. However, this is absolutely abnormal for operations in space that are not being directly coordinated by the parties involved. As a point of reference, in 2020, another Russian satellite, Kosmos 2542, came within 150 to 300 kilometers (93 to 186 miles) of USA 245, a KH-11 spy satellite, and became a major international news story.

“We are aware of the situation and tracking it closely,” a spokesperson for ICEYE’s U.S.-based division told TWZ this morning. “Our constellation architecture is designed for continuity and resilience.”

ICEYE was founded in Finland, but now has offices globally. The company specializes in providing imagery via synthetic aperture radar (SAR) from satellites like ICEYE X36, which was launched in 2024.

SAR has the benefit of being able to capture images day or night, and regardless of bad weather or other obscurants like heavy smoke. There are trade-offs in terms of the kinds of details typically visible via SAR compared to what is seen in visual spectrum imagery. Ukrainian authorities have been utilizing ICEYE imagery for years now, including for targeting purposes, as part of the ongoing conflict with Russia. There have been reports in the past that ICEYE X36 has been operating more directly under the control of the Ukrainian government, but this has not been confirmed.

Kosmos 2612 is one of six satellites (Cosmos 2609 through Cosmos 2614) the Russian military launched via a single Soyuz-2.1b rocket on April 17. The exact purpose and configuration of these satellites are unconfirmed. However, they appear to be so-called inspector types capable of rendezvousing and maneuvering close to other objects in space. We will come back to this later on.

What is clear is that Kosmos 2612 has spent the past three weeks deliberately maneuvering to extremely closely shadow ICEYE X36.

“Over two weeks beginning on September 30, 2026, Cosmos 2612 executed a series of new maneuvers that brought it back into coplanar alignment and placed it at nearly the same altitude as the commercial satellite,” Clayton Swope, Deputy Director of the Aerospace Security Project and Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank in Washington, D.C., along with Research Assistant Chantal Li, wrote in an analysis of the situation just last Thursday.

“According to current orbital elements, the Russian #KOSMOS 2612 satellite is now within 1-2 km [0.6 miles to 1.2 miles] of #ICEYE-X36,” Dr. Marco Langbroek, currently a lecturer on Space Situational Awareness at the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering of Delft Technical University in the Netherlands, wrote in a thread on X on Saturday. “Based on current elements, it might come within meters of the latter within a few hours from now. This is an #RPO [rendezvous and proximity operation] without consent.”

2/x
Initially I was skeptic whether #ICEYEX36 really was an intentional target: but a series of manoeuvers by #Kosmos2612 starting on Sept 30, were clearly designed to bring the two objects very close and synchronise their orbital periods, orbital altitude and eccentricity: pic.twitter.com/BhIoi8Rtbe

— Dr Marco Langbroek (@Marco_Langbroek) October 17, 2026

“New TLEs [two-line elements] show that K2612 made a manuever [sic] on Oct 16 and is now stationkeeping within 5 km [3.1 miles] or less of ICEYE X36,” Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and astronomer, who previously worked for the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and has long been tracking objects of interest in orbit, also wrote in a series of posts on X on Saturday. “To my knowledge this is the first LEO [low Earth orbit] rendezvous of two active satellites where the owner of one of the sats did not give approval.”

McDowell later clarified that “close passes” of objects in orbit had certainly occurred previously, “but not I think rendezvous [sic] (matching velocity vector).”

“This is the most advanced and potentially dangerous uncooperative RPO we’ve observed,” Adam Marsh, LeoLabs vice president for technical solutions, separately told Breaking Defense.

Unprecedented orbital maneuvering

As underscored by the previous interaction of Kosmos 2542 and USA 245, close shadowing of satellites in orbit is certainly nothing new. The U.S. government, as well as Russia and others, have been observed engaging in this kind of activity in the past. At the same time, just how close Kosmos 2612 got to ICEYE X36, and how long they spent in close alignment, are, at the very least, highly unusual.

“It’s important to note that ‘red’ on ‘blue’ engagements,  such as this, are relatively uncommon in Low Earth Orbit (LEO),” LeoLabs’ report points out. At the same time, “this was not a routine conjunction or ‘fly by.’ The sequence included a controlled approach, changes in relative position, close-proximity loitering, additional small maneuvers, and a controlled departure. The behavior is consistent with sophisticated rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO).”

On top of this, there are other signs that what just happened between Kosmos 2612 and ICEYE X36 may follow a Russian playbook of sorts that could also be used in a prelude to an on-orbit anti-satellite attack.

Within weeks of their launch in April, Kosmos 2610, 2611, 2612, 2613, and 2614 had all moved orbital planes shared by multiple ICEYE satellites. Three of them subsequently made close passes by ICEYE X36, specifically, but none of them initially kept station with it. ICEYE CEO Rafal Modrzewski did say “the company later moved its ​satellite, prompting further Russian manoeuvres [sic],” according to a story Reuters published last week.

Russian satellites approaching ICEYE: a closer look at the timeline.

Tracking data via @LeoLabs_Space . Analysis via COMSPOC SSA.

On April 16, Russia launched six maneuverable satellites (Cosmos 2609-2614) from Plesetsk. Five of them — Cosmos 2610, 2611, 2612, 2613, and 2614… pic.twitter.com/ISoToOptnp

— COMSPOC_OPS (@COMSPOC_OPS) July 15, 2026

To take a step even further back, before Kosmos 2542 was caught shadowing USA 245 in 2020, there were reports that the U.S. spy satellite had shifted its orbit. This was possibly prompted by the movements of another Russian ‘inspector,’ Kosmos 2543. This does not appear to have ever been confirmed.

While in space, Kosmos 2542 had deployed Kosmos 2543 in November 2019. Then, on July 23, 2020, the U.S. military said that it had detected Kosmos 2543 itself launching a smaller object in what it described as a test of a space-based anti-satellite weapon. In a subsequent interview with Time, then-Chief of Space Operations Gen. John “Jay” Raymond, U.S. Space Force’s top uniformed officer, disclosed that American forces had first observed Russian “nesting doll” satellites – a reference to traditional Russian matryoshka dolls – similarly demonstrating the “characteristics of a weapon system” in 2017.

U.S. officials have been warning for years that Russia’s growing array of inspector-type satellites, ostensibly designed to examine other assets the country has in orbit if they break down or otherwise malfunction, are inherently dual-purpose in nature. Beyond launching projectiles, a host of other modes of attack, kinetic and non-kinetic, are enabled by the underlying ability of a spacecraft to maneuver very close to other objects in orbit and hold that position. This includes the use of grappling arms to cause damage or just tow a satellite out of orbit, spraying aerosols to harm or impair optics and solar panels, and electronic warfare jamming. A satellite could turn out to be the weapon itself, becoming a kinetic interceptor that smashes into its target on command.

One satellite shadowing another closely in orbit allows various kinds of intelligence gathering, as well. Collection of imagery and signal emissions can offer valuable details about a target’s capabilities and vulnerabilities, as well as how it is being used in a particular context.

“As observed by LeoLabs Global Radar Network and analyzed by our team, COSMOS 2612 demonstrated a sequence of capabilities that could be used to inspect, characterize, shadow, or potentially interfere with another spacecraft,” according to LeoLabs’ report. “These actions require planning, maneuverability, precise navigation, and significant fuel. They may also indicate the use of onboard sensors capable of measuring the relative position of another spacecraft.”

What has just transpired between Kosmos 2612 and ICEYE X36 highlights how just a viable threat of attack can be disruptive in its own right. Simply forcing an imagery-gathering satellite out of position could prevent it from collecting over an intended area, or at least doing so in the most effective manner.

Furthermore, satellites only have a limited amount of fuel with which to maneuver in any way after reaching orbit. Harassment in space that forces them to burn off that finite resource at a higher-than-expected rate could reduce their total operational life expectancy, as well as further limit their effectiveness and make them more vulnerable to attacks or accidents. Debris in space is a steadily growing hazard that satellites increasingly need to dodge.

The United States, among others, has been actively pursuing on-orbit refueling capabilities to help address these issues. Last month, American officials also made the bombshell admission that there are unspecified U.S. weapon systems in orbit now, ostensibly for defensive purposes amid growing threats from Russia, as well as China. Both of those countries, among others, have been actively developing and fielding various anti-satellite capabilities inside and out of the Earth’s atmosphere.

“We can only speculate about the operation’s goal, but it could have been anything from simply intimidation to outright destruction or sabotage of a U.S.-registered satellite,” CSIS’ Clayton Swope told TWZ directly today in light of the new developments regarding Kosmos 2612 and ICEYE X36. “Perhaps the operation is on hold. There are, however, several other satellites that shadowed ICEYE X36 back in May that could be brought in[to] action too.”

Attribution and broader ramifications

It is important to point out that space, as a domain, inherently creates complications when it comes to attributing any form of attack, should one occur. Satellites do suffer mishaps, sometimes with catastrophic results, the causes of which are not always clear.

Just in January, a Russian inspector satellite launched in 2014 appeared to break up unexpectedly. Sometime around the end of July, the Chinese reconnaissance satellite Yaogan 50-02, which had only been launched some four months earlier, also broke up in orbit. On Sept. 13, a similar fate befell the U.S. Cold War-era Farrah III spy satellite, also known as USA 32. At the time of writing, no firm evidence has emerged to indicate any of these incidents were the result of hostile action rather than accidents of some kind.

Update: Debris from active PRC satellite Yaogan 50-02.@S4S_SDA has now cataloged 62 pieces of debris originating from the PRC's active Yaogan 50-02 satellite (68196 / 2026-051A) on around 20 July 2026 (ref my initial analysis on Substack, link in thread).

In spite of the… pic.twitter.com/1ecF68W8VQ

— Space Domain Awareness (@shell_jim) October 12, 2026

Some recordings of USA 32 (#19460), whose fragmentation in LEO on 13 Sep 2026 at approximately 2113 UTC was confirmed by U.S. Space Forces–Space (S4S). By the time of the recordings, a large number of fragments had already dispersed over a wide section of the track. pic.twitter.com/gjRxCTPz2o

— s2a systems (@s2a_systems) September 16, 2026

“While the intention behind COSMOS 2612’s behavior remains uncertain, the deliberate nature of the activity, the fuel required to conduct this activity, and the proximity to a Western commercial imaging satellite make the event strategically important,” LeoLab’s report notes. “This event, and the capabilities demonstrated, do not establish hostile intent. It does, however, demonstrate capabilities that could support intelligence collection, on-orbit inspection, coercive signaling, interference, or preparation for future counterspace operations.”

It is very possible, if not highly probable, that Kosmos 2612’s recent activities will be indicative of a trend going forward. Aggressive and potentially dangerous maneuvering by armed forces in close proximity to each other is not uncommon within the atmosphere, especially in the air and at sea. Extending a variation of those tactics into the space domain would make sense, especially given the central role that capabilities in orbit increasingly play in modern military operations globally. Those roles extend to early warning, general intelligence gathering, weapons guidance, near-real-time communications, and beyond.

American officials have already said in the past that American assets in space are routinely the target of “reversible attacks,” meaning ones that do not cause permanent damage. That also speaks to the difficulty of attribution if there is no lasting effect or impact to draw attention to.

The U.S. government’s long-time monopoly on the space domain has also been steadily eroding in recent years, especially in light of China’s massive expansion of its intelligence-gathering and other satellite constellations. The scale and scope of what commercial satellite imagery and other space services providers, like ICEYE, offer today have led to a further democratization of space-based capabilities to countries like Ukraine that do not possess significant, if any, constellations of their own.

All of this, in turn, has increasingly driven the U.S. military, specifically, to plan for more proactive operations and potential direct conflict in orbit to ensure it retains its edge going forward. The aforementioned disclosure of U.S. on-orbit weapons is indicative of those developments and an accompanying shift in U.S. policy to be more open about counter-space capabilities.

More details may yet emerge about Kosmos 2612 and its recent rendezvous in orbit with ICEYE X36, but it already points to how space has become an increasingly likely potential zone for direct conflict going forward.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

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