With Israel’s election yielding no clear winner, US President Donald Trump could face prolonged uncertainty over who will lead Washington’s closest Middle East ally as he confronts challenges from Iran and Gaza across the region.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc secured the most seats in Israel’s parliament but still lost its parliamentary majority on Tuesday, despite Trump having endorsed him against a rival alliance of parties led by hawkish former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

While Netanyahu seemed in a stronger position, neither side was projected to have an outright path to form a new government after Israel’s first election since the Hamas-led attacks of Oct 7, 2023, and the ensuing wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

The stage appeared to be set for a period of painstaking coalition bargaining or possibly another election while Netanyahu remains in power in a caretaker capacity.

The outcome will have implications for US-Israeli relations, which have been dominated by the joint fight against Iran, stalled Gaza peace efforts and signs of eroding US public support for Israel.

The uncertainty comes at a sensitive moment for Trump, when he and Netanyahu have threatened to join in another round of attacks against Iran.

“Israeli politics can be messy,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East adviser in Democratic and Republican administrations.

From the US perspective, he said, “It would be good to get some clarity, but that’s easier said than done.”

Which outcome would Trump prefer?

Netanyahu a consummate political survivor who has had a close but sometimes turbulent relationship with Trump dating back decades may have survived again.

He is the longest-serving Israeli prime minister and the only one the US president has ever worked with.

Eisenkot, who projected an image as a political outsider and security-minded former general during the campaign, has seen his governing chances dimmed but not extinguished. He is not known to have ever met Trump.

Some analysts say creation of a broad unity government keeping Netanyahu in power might serve Trump’s interest in a politically stable Israeli partner. But neither side has shown a willingness to take that path.

Asked whether he was going to get involved in an effort to form a Netanyahu-led unity government, Trump told Axios on Wednesday he hadn’t thought about it, adding: “I will take a look.”

What does the election mean for the war in Iran?

Topping the list is how Trump might engage with Israel in the war against Iran, which has rocked the Middle East.

The eight-month-old conflict has disrupted global energy supplies, pushed up US gasoline prices and driven down his approval ratings, imperiling his Republicans’ control of Congress in the Nov 3 midterm elections.

Trump, in his Oct 18 endorsement, insisted he wanted Netanyahu to remain in power to help him soon “finish the job” against Iran. The president said overnight that Netanyahu, who outperformed pre-election polls, had done “very well” and that his backing had boosted the Israeli leader.

Trump has repeatedly signalled that the US and Israel could restart attacks on Iran after the midterms, with some critics, including in Israel, suggesting Netanyahu might see it as a way to bolster his political standing as caretaker prime minister.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US national intelligence officer on the Middle East, said any future Israeli leadership would likely be on the same page as Trump if he decides to escalate from the current stalemate with Israel’s regional arch-foe.

“It’s hard to imagine any real daylight between them on that point,” said Panikoff, now at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.

Where Netanyahu and many Israelis have sometimes differed with Trump is when he has offered concessions in now-stalled negotiations with Tehran.

What are the implications for Gaza peace efforts?

No matter how Israel’s next government shapes up, there is little reason to believe there will be any sweeping shift in tough policies toward the Palestinians.

This does not bode well for breaking the diplomatic deadlock between Israel and Hamas and fully implementing Trumps Gaza peace plan following the war there.

Israel, in response to the group’s deadly cross-border attack, levelled much of the enclave and killed tens of thousands of Palestinians.

Administration officials have privately expressed frustration over what they see as intransigence by Netanyahu, who has insisted that Hamas must first disarm.

Eisenkot, who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war, stressed his military credentials while positioning himself as a centrist domestically during the election campaign.

He has vowed to break with Netanyahus far-right coalition allies, but not with the hawkish approach to security that has become more entrenched since the 2023 Hamas attack.

Like Netanyahu, Eisenkot opposes Palestinian statehood and says Hamas’s military wing must be destroyed.

But he has pledged to prevent violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, which Netanyahus government has been accused of tolerating. Settler attacks have drawn criticism in recent weeks from US officials worried the territory could become another Middle East flashpoint.

What about Israel’s growing isolation?

Even as Israel’s political climate is expected to remain unsettled for some time, Trump may have to contend with what opinion polls project could be the Democrats’ takeover of one or both chambers of Congress in the midterms.

That could mean increased pressure from Democrats, whose support for Israel plunged over its conduct in the Gaza war, to curb billions of dollars in US aid and weapons supplies.

Some members of Trumps MAGA base have also become increasingly critical of Israel, accusing it of having misled Trump who campaigned for a second term on a promise to avoid foreign military interventions into believing Iran could easily be defeated.

Trump, in an interview with Axios in June, cautioned Netanyahu about Israel’s deepening international isolation, and most analysts say the trend may be irreversible, even with a new government.

Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and his family arrived in Miami on Wednesday, where the United States government would grant them entry visas after he refused to comply with a Brazilian Supreme Court order to surrender his passports.

Bolsonaro, who lost last Sunday’s presidential election to leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, left Brazil under a shroud of secrecy after the court order, which relates to a money-laundering investigation in which he denies wrongdoing.

Images showed Bolsonaro, his wife and two daughters disembarking from a Gulfstream G400 and heading into Miami’s Opa-Locka Executive Airport.

Their journey to the United States captured attention across the region. They entered northern Argentina late on Tuesday evening, according to the country’s migration department, and then took a private jet to the Ecuadorean city of Guayaquil. From there, they flew to Miami.

Neither Argentina’s presidency, Ecuadorean ministries nor Baires Fly, the operator of the private jet, responded to requests for comment.

Fresh Brazil-US rift

Bolsonaro’s departure threatens to deepen a rift between the two most populous nations in the Americas.

Lula has accused Washington of colluding with the Bolsonaro family to help return them to power. Ahead of Sunday’s election, Reuters reported on a US State Department campaign to restore the Bolsonaros to office.

Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he would approve of Bolsonaro coming to the United States, after his State Department said it would give them entry visas.

Trump has previously alleged that Flavio’s father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, was a victim of judicial persecution in Brazil.

Jair Bolsonaro also travelled to the United States after refusing to concede defeat to Lula in 2022, during Joe Biden’s presidency. He eventually returned to Brazil but was later sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup after supporters stormed government buildings in Brasilia.

Flavio Bolsonaro had been widely expected to win Sunday’s election but suffered a shock defeat.

Bolsonaro, who loses his immunity from prosecution when his Senate term ends in February, said on Monday after the order to hand in his passports that he had no plans to flee.

“I have never thought about leaving the country,” he said. “I will hand over my passports and defend myself against this travesty, which is a clear attempt to intimidate me.”

The US military has spent over $47 billion so far to prosecute the war in Iran, more than 25 per cent higher than the Defense Department’s estimate in July, according to Pentagon data obtained by Reuters.

The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment on its estimate, which has not been shared publicly.

The disclosure about the rising cost of the Iran war comes as Republicans wrestle with the political fallout of the unpopular conflict ahead of the November 3 election that will determine control of Congress for the next two years.

The war’s impact on global energy costs has weighed on support for Republican candidates and hurt President Donald Trump’s approval ratings. Trump’s Republican Party holds a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress.

The Pentagon’s latest estimate was tied to the operational costs of carrying out the war, with a projected cost of more than $29 billion to replace expended munitions used in the conflict.

More than $6 billion would be needed to replace military equipment and so-called “platform losses,” which include the loss of aircraft, including many drones lost during the war.

Trump launched the Iran war jointly with Israel in February, predicting that the conflict would last a short time.

Trump’s initial strategy in the Iran war focused on first using expensive, high-end precision missiles to bomb Iran’s defenses so it could later use less expensive munitions, including gravity bombs like the air-launched JDAMs, which are plentiful.

But an April ceasefire gave time for Iran to dig out underground storage facilities, bringing back online some Iranian defenses, as well as missiles and drones that had been inaccessible.

Trump has since imposed a naval blockade on Iran to starve it of oil export revenue and held out the possibility of restarting combat operations after the midterm elections.

US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, say the Pentagon has been planning to restart heavy fighting if ordered to do so.

The latest Pentagon estimate compares to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s July estimate of $37.5 billion for the cost of the war.

While the figures include a host of operational costs, from flight operations to cyber support, the US military’s Iran war cost estimates did not clearly account for the massive expense expected to repair damage to US bases sustained by Iranian missile and drone attacks.

GUWAHATI: India has deployed hundreds of additional security personnel in its remote northeast, authorities said on Tuesday, after youth protesters clashed with police last week over a plan to build a mega-dam to counter a Chinese hydropower project upstream.

Protests in Arunachal Pradesh’s Siang Valley, which borders Tibet, turned violent last week, triggering clashes with police, who made at least 21 arrests.

Police fired tear gas shells, while youth protesters pelted stones and set fire to a police station and an office of the state-owned National Hydroelectric Pow­er Corporation, authorities said.

“Forces are being increased in the places where it is required. We do not want any law and order problem,” SD Singh Jamwal, police chief of Arunachal Pradesh, told Reuters.

Sporadic protests have taken place in the Siang Valley in the last two years, the location of the proposed 11,200-megawatt Siang Upper Multipurpose Project, which will be developed by state-run National Hydroelectric Power Corporation.

Villagers who oppose the project fear that the dam would submerge ancestral villages belonging to the Adi tribe.

“We will keep opposing this dam till they cancel it. If it is constructed, 27 of our ancestral villages will be completely submerged. At least 40 or 50 more will be affected,” Gegong Jijong of the Siang Indigenous Farmers’ Forum told Reuters.

The Siang river flows into Arunachal Pradesh from Tibet, where it is known as the Yarlung Zangbo. China anno­unced plans in December 2024 to build the world’s largest hydropower dam upstream, triggering fears in New Delhi that its longtime strategic rival could weaponise its control of the river.

China claims Arunachal Pradesh, which it calls Zangnan, as part of southern Tibet. India says the state is an integral and inalienable part of its territory.

Arunachal Pradesh’s BJP-aligned chief minister has called the Chinese project an existential threat.

Published in Dawn, October 28th, 2026