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US midterms 2026: Nine key issues shaping the election

29 October 2026 at 15:46

Americans head to the polls on 3 November for the 2026 midterm elections, with rising living costs, President Donald Trump's war on Iran and concerns over the future of US democracy dominating the political debate.

Opinion polls across the country suggest widespread dissatisfaction, particularly over the economy, as households struggle with everyday expenses.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has added to those concerns, disrupting global oil supplies and driving up petrol, diesel and home heating costs.

Healthcare, immigration, government corruption and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence have also emerged as major election issues, exposing divisions between Republicans and Democrats over the country's future.

Here are nine key issues shaping the midterms, according to a Bloomberg analysis published on Thursday.

1. Economy and cost of living

The economy remains the biggest concern for American voters, with affordability emerging as a defining issue in the 2026 elections.

According to a Pew Research Center survey, around 84% of registered voters consider the economy extremely important when deciding how to vote.

A New York Times/Siena College poll found that 51% of voters trusted Democrats to manage the economy better, compared with 45% who favoured Republicans.

Democratic candidates have blamed Trump's tariffs and the war on Iran for rising prices, making opposition to both policies central to their campaigns.

Republicans, meanwhile, have highlighted Trump's 2025 tax legislation, which introduced tax breaks covering tips, overtime earnings and certain Social Security retirement income.

2. The war on Iran

The war on Iran has become a major electoral issue, particularly as its economic consequences affect American households.

According to Pew Research Center, 65% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of US military action against Iran, compared with 33% who approve.

Democratic candidates have criticised the conflict as unpopular, expensive and open-ended, warning against further military involvement.

The war has also exposed divisions within the Republican Party.

Some Republican candidates have distanced themselves from Trump, whose 2024 presidential campaign promised an "America First" foreign policy and pledged to avoid new military conflicts.

3. Government corruption

Public concern about corruption has reached record levels.

A Gallup survey conducted in September found that 89% of American adults believe government corruption is widespread.

Among Democrats, the figure reached 91%, compared with 57% in 2024, when Joe Biden was president.

Democratic candidates have raised questions about Trump's financial interests, including his cryptocurrency ventures and stock trading, alleging that he has used public office for personal financial gain.

The Justice Department's handling of files relating to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein has also drawn criticism from victims' advocates, who have accused the administration of protecting powerful individuals.

Meanwhile, candidates from both parties have called for restrictions on congressional stock trading, term limits for lawmakers and Supreme Court justices, and tighter rules governing former members of Congress who become lobbyists.

4. The future of American democracy

Concerns over the future of US democracy have become another defining issue.

A Pew survey found that 85% of Democratic voters and 69% of Republican voters consider the future of democracy extremely important when casting their ballots.

Democratic leaders have repeatedly portrayed Trump as a threat to democratic institutions, accusing him of using authoritarian tactics and inflammatory rhetoric to intimidate political opponents and minority communities.

The debate reflects wider disagreements over presidential power, government accountability and the role of democratic institutions.

5. Healthcare costs

Healthcare remains a major financial concern for American families.

According to a KFF survey, around six in ten voters are worried about healthcare costs, while nearly half consider it extremely important for midterm candidates to address the issue.

The poll found that 42% trusted Democrats more to handle healthcare costs, compared with 22% who favoured Republicans.

Progressive Democratic candidates have called for a universal, government-run healthcare system to replace private insurance.

Democrats have also opposed Republican-backed reductions in Medicaid spending, which provides healthcare coverage for low-income Americans and people with disabilities.

Republicans have focused more heavily on tackling healthcare fraud and have argued that a government-run universal system would increase taxes.

6. Immigration and border security

Immigration, a central issue in Trump's 2024 election victory, has become increasingly contentious during his second term.

His administration's expanded deportation operations and immigration enforcement measures have prompted protests and calls to abolish or reduce the powers of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Opposition has also emerged in some districts that supported Trump in 2024.

Latino voters could play an important role in closely contested races, particularly those who backed Trump in the presidential election but have since shifted towards the Democrats.

An NBC News/Telemundo poll found that 69% disapproved of Trump's handling of immigration, compared with 30% who approved.

On border security, 58% disapproved of his approach, while 39% approved.

Most Republican candidates have continued defending Trump's immigration policies, warning that Democrats would return to what they claim was the Biden administration's "open borders" approach.

7. Artificial intelligence and data centres

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence has created an unexpected election battleground.

Large data centres, which provide the computing infrastructure needed to operate AI systems, have faced growing opposition over their consumption of electricity, water and land.

Concerns about job losses and the wider impact of AI on everyday life have also become increasingly prominent.

According to Pew Research Center, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to express concern about AI's role in society and its potential impact on employment.

Trump, however, has backed the expansion of AI infrastructure, arguing that the United States must maintain its technological advantage over China.

The issue has increasingly divided communities over the economic benefits of new technology and its potential environmental and social costs.

8. Transgender rights

Transgender rights remain a contentious issue in the 2026 elections, following their prominence during the 2024 presidential campaign.

Trump's previous campaign focused heavily on Kamala Harris's support for gender-affirming surgery for transgender prisoners.

A survey conducted by The 19th and YouGov found that 45% of American adults said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate supporting a ban on transgender athletes competing in women's and girls' sports.

By comparison, 20% said they would prefer candidates who opposed such restrictions.

The issue has become part of a wider debate over civil rights, gender identity and participation in competitive sport.

9. Social Security and retirement benefits

Social Security has emerged as a major concern, particularly among older Americans, who traditionally vote at higher rates in midterm elections.

The programme provides monthly payments to retirees, surviving family members and people with disabilities.

Current projections suggest that the main trust fund supporting retirement and survivors' benefits could exhaust its reserves by 2032.

Without congressional intervention, incoming payroll tax revenues would cover only around 78% of scheduled benefits.

Social Security is primarily financed through payroll taxes, applied to earnings up to an annual limit of $184,500 in 2026.

Polling suggests broad public support for raising or eliminating that earnings cap to strengthen the programme's finances.

The debate has placed retirement security and the long-term sustainability of federal benefits firmly on the election agenda.

Palestinian vote in Israel: From boycott to record Knesset gains

29 October 2026 at 11:39

Palestinian citizens of Israel have secured their largest-ever parliamentary representation following Tuesday's election, marking a historic moment after decades of debate over political participation, representation and the rights of Palestinians who remained on their land after the Nakba of 1948.

The Joint List secured 11 seats and the United Arab List (Ra'am) eight, bringing Palestinian parties' combined representation to a record 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Turnout among Palestinian voters reportedly reached a historic 80%, while the two lists received a combined 759,329 votes, reflecting a sharp increase in political mobilisation despite longstanding divisions over whether participation in Israeli elections advances Palestinian rights or legitimises the Israeli state.

The results have also given Palestinian parties a potentially decisive role in coalition negotiations, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition nor Gadi Eisenkot's opposition securing a parliamentary majority.

Why has Palestinian participation been controversial?

Since Israel's first parliamentary election in 1949, Palestinian citizens have been divided between those who view voting as necessary to defend their rights and those who argue that participating in the Knesset lends legitimacy to a state that systematically discriminates against them.

Supporters of participation argue that parliamentary representation provides a platform to challenge discriminatory policies, defend Palestinian communities and influence legislation affecting their daily lives.

Opponents maintain that electoral participation helps Israel project an image of democracy while Palestinians continue to face discrimination, displacement and restrictions on their political and national rights.

For decades after the Nakba, Palestinian political representation largely took place through Israeli parties, notably the Communist Party, and mixed political organisations rather than independent Palestinian electoral lists.

Efforts to establish autonomous political movements faced restrictions from Israeli authorities, alongside ideological divisions within Palestinian society.

One early attempt came in 1958 with the establishment of the Popular Arab Front, bringing together Arab nationalists and communists who demanded an end to martial law then in force against Palestinian citizens, the return of Palestinian refugees and an end to discrimination.

The movement later collapsed following internal disagreements and pressure from Israeli authorities.

The nationalist Al-Ard movement subsequently attempted to establish an independent political presence but was barred from contesting the 1965 election.

How did Palestinian political parties emerge?

The 1970s and 1980s saw the emergence of competing approaches to political participation.

The Abnaa al-Balad movement, established in 1972, rejected Knesset elections and called for a boycott, arguing that parliamentary participation could not fulfil Palestinian national aspirations.

The Islamic Movement, which gained significant support during the 1970s, initially opposed participation in parliamentary elections but later split into two branches.

Its northern branch, led by Sheikh Raed Salah, maintained its boycott position, arguing that participation legitimised Israeli rule, while the southern branch, associated with Ibrahim Sarsour, entered parliamentary politics through alliances with other Palestinian political groups.

A significant turning point came in 1988 when Abdulwahab Darawsheh established the Arab Democratic Party, opening the way for greater independent Palestinian representation.

Further developments followed in the 1990s, including the emergence of the National Democratic Assembly, known as Balad, and the Arab Movement for Change.

Ra'am also entered parliamentary politics in 1996, representing the southern branch of the Islamic Movement.

When previously did Palestinians manage to increase their representation?

A major breakthrough came in 2015 when four Palestinian political factions united under the Joint List, winning 13 seats and more than 443,000 votes.

The alliance achieved an even stronger result in 2020, securing 15 seats with more than 581,000 votes, its previous parliamentary record.

However, renewed political divisions weakened Palestinian representation in the 2022 election, when Ra'am and the Hadash-Ta'al alliance contested the vote separately.

Ra'am secured five seats, while Hadash-Ta'al also won five. Balad contested the election independently but failed to cross the electoral threshold.

The combined representation of Palestinian parties fell to 10 seats, highlighting the electoral consequences of fragmentation.

Tuesday's election has now surpassed the previous record, with Palestinian parties projected to hold 19 seats, nearly double their representation in the outgoing Knesset.

Could Palestinian parties decide Israel's next government?

The historic result has placed Palestinian parties at the centre of coalition negotiations, although their ability to influence the next government remains uncertain.

With approximately 90% of ballots counted, Netanyahu's coalition was projected to secure 53 seats, while Eisenkot's opposition bloc held 48, leaving both short of the 61 required to govern.

Together, the opposition and Palestinian parties would hold 67 seats, potentially giving them enough parliamentary support to prevent Netanyahu from forming another government.

However, longstanding opposition among Jewish-led parties to relying on Palestinian parliamentary support remains a major obstacle.

Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen has indicated that his party could support a minority government led by Gadi Eisenkot from outside the coalition, while Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas has expressed willingness to participate in government.

Eisenkot, however, ruled out governing with Arab parties during the election campaign, leaving uncertainty over whether their record parliamentary gains could translate into political influence.

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