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College basketball season is almost here, and it is one of my favorite times of the year. I love basketball in general, and getting more of it is even better. When the season starts, we usually see a lot of mismatches because many teams start their season against inferior opponents. However, we also see a lot of softer lines as the books try to figure out how the teams are playing. Before the games start, it makes sense to look at some future bets because we can hold onto them and hedge later on.
As with many seasons, Duke comes in as one of the betting favorites. Duke is +550 to win the national championship right now. I think that is mostly because they do have one of the best recruiting classes in basketball, but they also are a public team. You typically either love or hate the team. I am not expecting them to win every game, but they shouldn't have more than three or four losses in the regular season. I don't think there is much value in betting on them at +500.
Florida is the next favorite in the market at +600. That's mostly because of their returning players rather than a recruiting class. They don't even rank in the top 100 this season. The Gators went 27-8 last year, and they won the Championship two years ago. Considering they have three of their top four leading scorers returning from last year, they should be in a strong position. They have a lot of upperclassmen as well, which usually means they are a bit more poised and should be ready to go. I like them better than Duke, but I think there are better options overall.
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UConn has won two of the past four national championships. They were in contention to win again last year. They return Braylon Mullins and Solo Ball this season, which gives them a strong backcourt. Their recruiting class ranks 18th overall in the nation. They also added some really good players in the transfer portal, including Nikolas Khamenia and Najai Hines. I am an open Dan Hurley hater, but he's good at his job. I will grab UConn at +1250 to win the title, as I think this team will make at least an Elite 8 appearance.
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Texas has the top-ranked recruiting class in the nation for this season. The big key for the Longhorns will be seeing how everyone can gel together. Most of the transfers are four-star recruits, but I don't really think any of them had super impressive seasons last year. They have two forwards coming from high school who already played together at Dynamic Prep in Dallas, Texas. That could provide some familiarity right away. Texas at +1900 is worth a look, but I don't think they win the national title, so this is mostly a hedge ticket.
Kansas hasn't quite been the elite team we've seen in previous years. However, they have a good recruiting class coming into their program this year. Tyran Stokes, the top incoming freshman, is going to lead the squad. He comes to a Kansas team that was 24-11 last year. The Jayhawks lost Darryn Peterson, but they also lost the other three leading scorers. The Jayhawks have a good coach, and I do think there will be some struggles early, but they have the potential to come together and win the championship. I'll grab them at +3000 as well.
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Football is back for Week 8, and it is hard to believe we are almost halfway through the regular season. I still feel like we don't really know all that much about these teams. Are some of these teams that have good records actually bad (the Chiefs), or are some of the bad-record teams actually good (the Cowboys)? Maybe those two teams aren't even the best examples of those situations. There are two teams on Thursday Night Football that are a bit hard to judge, as the Panthers and Packers take each other on.
The Carolina Panthers are 3-3 for the season and 2-1 on the road. Bryce Young is searching for a contract extension, or maybe at this point a new home. The good news for him is that he has looked fantastic in his fourth year under center. He is on pace to have the best season of his career. The running game has been solid for the team, even if they don't really use it as much as they probably need to. Chuba Hubbard is averaging about 4.5 yards per carry, but the team has attempted roughly 100 more passes than runs.
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Defensively, this team has struggled against the run, but has been very good against the pass. They have the worst defense in football when it comes to stopping the run. However, against the pass, they are ranked sixth. That might be a good thing against a Packers team that has struggled to run the ball this season. What is interesting to me is that, if you look at the schedule, the Panthers have won games against Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley. They lost to the Bears, Browns and Buccaneers. No knock on those three, but I don't think their team's running backs would be as feared as the ones they beat.
The Green Bay Packers are 4-3 for the season and have done a good job of protecting their home field, entering with a 2-1 record. Jordan Love is having a really strong season and is arguably being asked to do more than ever before. The team was missing starting running back Josh Jacobs, who was away from the team due to legal issues. Without Jacobs, the Packers really struggled to find any traction on the ground this season. His return last week wasn't transformational; Jacobs only had 36 yards on 11 carries.
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The Packers will continue to rely on Love's arm to get the job done. He's already thrown the ball 270 times this season, which is almost double the number of times they've called a run play. That does make the offense a bit one-dimensional, and against the Panthers' defense, they could struggle.
The Packers, in general, don't score all that many points. They are averaging 20.6 points per game, 25th in the NFL, putting them in the same company as the Cardinals and Broncos.
It would be really hard to imagine that the Panthers and Packers play in a shootout tonight. Despite both of these teams excelling in the passing game, they aren't exactly elite offenses. Both are pretty good at stopping the pass. I think this game is likely to be a slow-starting game with both trying to figure things out. I'd be surprised if it goes over 47.5 for the game, but I think the under in the first half is even more likely. Neither team is a fast-starting team. Give me the under 23.5 for the 1st half.
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