The "Ruthless Podcast" Fellas have some of the best political insights in the game, and we asked them what they'll be looking at ahead of Tuesday's critical midterms.

Control of the House and U.S. Senate are at stake as Democrats try to take back Congress after Republicans swept the White House and both chambers in 2024.

From what polls are or aren't reliable, to the races sparking the most interest, to what the media continues to get wrong in political coverage, the Fellas have your answers.

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Comfortably Smug

If you could only watch one race on election night, which is it, and what’s the first thing you check when the polls close?

Maine Senate. Susan Collins has an incredible ability to lose every poll and win every election, thus far. Will she be able to overcome the atmosphere of this election is a huge question. The first thing I check when polls close is early exits, which I find to be the most reliable and illuminating data on election night.

What’s the one number you trust more than the polls (early vote, turnout, special election overperformance, fundraising, something else), and what threshold would make you feel good or bad about your side?

EARLY EXIT numbers are the most trustworthy!  Dems always talk about a red mirage followed by a blue wave on election nights. If early exits don't go Republicans' way, it will be a bad night. 

What is the media overhyping going into the midterms, and what is it ignoring?

The media is overhyping Barack Obama as a candidate surrogate. He stumped for Hillary [Clinton], he stumped for Kamala [Harris], and they both lost. Obama has no coattails. 

Which poll, pundit, or conventional wisdom do you not believe, and why?

I do not trust any polls. Early exits are the only reliable source of data. 

John Ashbrook

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If you could only watch one race on election night, which is it, and what’s the first thing you check when the polls close? 

Ohio Senate. Watch returns in the 50 counties where President Trump outperformed Mitt Romney by 10 or more points. 

What’s the one number you trust more than the polls (early vote, turnout, special election overperformance, fundraising, something else), and what threshold would make you feel good or bad about your side? 

[Mike] Rogers' performance in Oakland County is a number to watch. And also his share of the vote in Michigan’s Seventh Congressional District. He could come out on top if he outperforms his 2024 vote totals in those areas. 

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What is the media overhyping going into the midterms, and what is it ignoring? 

The media always overhypes late-breaking vibes and underreports multi-year, local level grassroots operations. Good candidates can overperform the environment with competent campaigns.

Which poll, pundit, or conventional wisdom do you not believe, and why? 

Public polling is often less reliable than professional private surveys based on years of state and local level expertise. So I’m always skeptical of public polling. But the one thing they’ve captured accurately is the difficult environment Republican candidates are currently navigating.  

Michael Duncan

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If you could only watch one race on election night, which is it, and what’s the first thing you check when the polls close?

Michigan's Senate race. First thing we're checking is Abdul El-Sayed's support with Black voters in Wayne County.

What’s the one number you trust more than the polls (early vote, turnout, special election overperformance, fundraising, something else), and what threshold would make you feel good or bad about your side?

Early vote. Banking votes early makes you sweat election night less, and it lets you know where you're getting enthusiasm. 

What is the media overhyping going into the midterms, and what is it ignoring?

The Florida Senate race. Angie Nixon is a DSA loon and every interview she gives is a disaster. The media hasn't really covered the ranked choice process in Maine and Alaska. It's possible it could take weeks for us to know who has the Senate Majority.

Which poll, pundit, or conventional wisdom do you not believe, and why?

The pollsters who were off by 10+ points in the Dem primaries in Wisconsin and Michigan and are now publishing general election polls. 

A Colorado mother of three says her family was denied $12,000 in taxpayer-funded preschool benefits because she chose a Catholic education for her children, accusing the state of discriminating against religious families through a program promoted as universal.

Erika Nagle, whose children attend St. Mary Catholic School in Littleton, Colorado, told Fox News Digital that two of her children were denied access to the state's preschool funding program, leaving her family to cover additional education expenses.

"We are being excluded from this benefit because we are Catholic," Nagle said in an interview with Fox News Digital. "And so in a state that preaches inclusion, they are actively going out of their way to exclude a huge chunk of people because of our religious beliefs."

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At the center of the dispute is Colorado's universal preschool program, which Nagle says provides more than $6,000 per eligible child for preschool education. Catholic schools challenging the program argue that the state's participation requirements unfairly burden their religious beliefs and admissions practices.

According to Becket, Colorado launched its preschool funding program in 2023, offering eligible families approximately $6,300 to cover 15 hours of preschool per week. The organization said the program was promoted as a universal benefit that would allow parents to choose among public, private and religious preschools, prompting Catholic families across the state to seek participation.

Nagle says the consequences go beyond her family's finances.

"We have had two preschools in the archdiocese that have been closed down," she said, arguing that the program is affecting Catholic school enrollment and pressuring families to abandon the religious education they want for their children.

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"The state is dangling a carrot over here, incentivizing people to leave their faith, to abandon the Catholic education that they want," she said.

Nagle argued that nearly every school has admissions criteria tailored to the community it serves, whether that means prioritizing neighborhood children, people who identify as LGBTQ, children with special needs or low-income families. She said St. Mary similarly prioritizes Catholic families while welcoming students whose families are willing to respect the school's religious teachings. Nagle questioned why the Catholic school's admissions practices should be treated differently.

"The state grants $6000 per family to be used during the year before kindergarten, so the year when they're in pre-K, which is technically the year before kindergarten, and you can use it at the school of your choice," Nagle said. "And so Catholics are forced to pay the price for the school of our choice, which is Catholic school. And so you have thousands of Coloradans that are being forced to pay more than anyone else."

The legal battle raises questions about the extent to which religious schools can participate in publicly funded education programs while maintaining faith-based admissions policies.

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"Colorado shouldn't force Catholic families to give up their choice, which is a faith-based school, and, you know, the state is letting other schools serve their communities, but they're not letting Catholic families serve their communities," Nagle said. "And to me, it also makes me wonder, is this by design, is this paving the way for godlessness or for what? Why can't Catholic families receive this benefit when there are other schools that were granted their exemption for other admissions requirements?"

The Supreme Court is hearing the case on Tuesday.

A spokesperson for the Colorado Department of Early Childhood (CDEC) said the department could not comment on pending litigation.

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Fox News Digital reached out to Colorado Gov. Jared Polis' office for comment but did not immediately receive a response.