US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will host his G20 counterparts, including Russia’s Sergei Lavrov, for talks on Friday that are expected to be fractious, with wars in Ukraine and Iran and surging energy prices fanning discord.

The foreign ministers’ meeting in Atlanta, Georgia, taking place just days before crucial US midterm elections, will set the stage for a December G20 leaders’ summit in Miami at President Donald Trump’s Doral resort.

Few breakthroughs are expected this week from the Group of 20 economies — which include China, India, Russia, Japan, Germany and France — as officials face divisions over Moscow’s war on Ukraine and fallout from conflict with Iran.

Russia has been shunned by most of the West after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and Lavrov himself remains under international sanctions.

Rubio’s encounter with Lavrov — whose presence adds an additional layer of tension — will be closely watched as Washington pursues diplomacy on Ukraine while seeking Moscow’s cooperation on reining in fuel prices, a key campaign issue in the midterms.

“The G20 is no longer really a forum where foreign ministers can reach agreement on a statement,” a diplomatic source said.

The source added that the US G20 presidency intends for Miami’s summit to serve “more as a demonstration of American power — and of US commitments to growth, deregulation, trade and business — rather than as a summit with grand ambitions on substantive issues.”

Instead of a final declaration, the source expects a chair summary drafted by the United States to be published from this week’s meeting.

The Trump administration, which is set to hand the rotating G20 leadership to Britain, sees the platform as having strayed from its core mission.

Washington has pledged to return the grouping to its goal of driving economic growth, arguing that security and economic prosperity are “inextricably linked.”

“Conversations in Atlanta will provide an opportunity to discuss energy and supply chain challenges as well as identify ways to collectively address the impact of geopolitical tensions on economic security,” a US State Department official said.

They stressed the importance of energy access — necessary for tech like artificial intelligence — and flagged a “shared resolve to confront urgent crises and keep critical sea lanes open to commerce without threats or tolls.”

‘Test case’

Global energy prices have rocketed since US-Israel strikes on Iran from late February triggered Tehran’s blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

“This is the last test case the G20 has, at least under the US G20 presidency, until Miami,” Alisha Chhangani of the Atlantic Council told AFP. Its outcomes will affect how the December summit shapes up.

She expects Washington will seek to argue that security shocks are also economic shocks.

It will likely push for agreement on what “freedom of navigation” means within and beyond Hormuz, a crucial waterway for oil and gas transit, she said.

But this could face objections from China, which dissented against wording on free navigation in Hormuz and worldwide at an earlier gathering of finance ministers.

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi will not be in Atlanta, and is instead sending his deputy, the US State Department said.

Meanwhile, the possibility of further escalation in the Middle East is mounting, with Israel threatening to strike Iran and Trump signalling he could attack after Tuesday’s midterm elections.

Lavrov attendance

In Atlanta, Rubio is also due to cross paths with Lavrov, who has already reached Atlanta according to Russian state media.

It comes ahead of fresh negotiations between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington in November.

The appearance of Lavrov, who plans to argue against international sanctions at the gathering, will likely frustrate European ministers, Chhangani said.

It is not surprising, however, as Washington has welcomed Russian officials to this year’s G20 events — while excluding member South Africa — and Trump has invited his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to Miami in December.

Trump has eased some sanctions on Moscow recently while touting a deal for Russia to sell diesel as prices soared, squeezing Americans.

The diplomatic source stressed that Russia’s G20 presence “in no way legitimizes its actions.”

All eyes will also be on US engagement with Brazil, whose foreign minister will be in attendance, after Washington granted entry to Flavio Bolsonaro following his defeat in Sunday’s presidential election.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s camp finished ahead of the opposition but remained well short of a majority, final results from general election showed on Friday, setting the stage for tough coalition talks or potentially another vote.

Netanyahu’s coalition of right-wing and far-right parties won 53 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, with his Likud party remaining the largest faction with 27 seats.

The opposition bloc, led by centrist Gadi Eisenkot, secured 48 seats.

The results from the Central Elections Committee also cemented the emergence as potential kingmakers of the Arab party groupings Raam and the Joint List, with the two winning a combined 19 seats.

The fragmented outcome sets the stage for difficult negotiations to form a government that could last weeks, with no single bloc able to reach the 61-seat threshold needed and the prospect of another election remaining if talks fail.

The final tally came after Netanyahu’s camp spent Thursday amplifying unproven allegations that Arab-Israeli groups received foreign funding to influence the vote, accusations rejected by both Arab-majority lists and Qatar.

Israel’s Shin Bet domestic security service said it was investigating suspected irregularities, but stressed the probe was not intended to “cast aspersions or place blame on an entire sector that went out to vote in a democratic and lawful manner”.

The electoral commission also sought to calm tensions, with its acting director general Dean Livne saying any suggestion of widespread issues was “entirely groundless”.

Political earthquake

The controversy centred on allegations that Raam received money from Qatar, the energy-rich Gulf powerbroker that has channels to Hamas, to finance vote-buying operations.

“The Raamgate scandal is a political earthquake. Israel’s elections have been stolen!” Netanyahu’s Likud party alleged on Thursday.

Raam leader Mansour Abbas denied any wrongdoing and welcomed an investigation, while the Joint List accused Netanyahu and his allies of conducting a “campaign of incitement” out of fear of Arab voters’ growing political influence.

Government officials have so far provided no evidence to back the allegations.

Opposition figures accused Netanyahu of attempting to undermine confidence in the results after failing to secure a governing majority.

“He is trying to challenge the election results,” left-wing candidate Yair Golan said.

Eisenkot said he was briefed by the Shin Bet and the election committee, adding it was “too early to understand what happened, and whether anything happened at all”.

But he continued: “It’s already clear that Likud and Netanyahu have embarked on a coordinated, organised campaign seeking to delegitimise the results of the election.”

Netanyahu himself has long been under the cloud of allegations related to Qatar after the arrests last year of two of his aides for allegedly receiving payments from the Gulf state.

Qatar called the latest accusations “ridiculous and dangerous”.

Kingmakers under pressure

Yousef Jabareen, head of the Joint List, told AFP that he is willing to cooperate with the opposition to bring down Netanyahu but without joining it in a government.

Netanyahu had tried during the voting to raise allegations of fraud, saying that Arab parties were caught with envelopes of cash, and Likud peddled the accusations throughout Thursday.

Police said they arrested three suspects but the election commission called it an isolated local case.