Humanity can stop panicking. I finally beat the robot again.

I went 4-1 in Week 7 and picked up 3.11 units, while ChatGPT finished 2-3 and lost 1.33 units. There’s something especially satisfying about winning four bets when your opponent spends several paragraphs explaining why it wasn’t taking three of them.

Was there some sweating involved? Absolutely. My 49ers-Falcons under cleared by half a point, and the Packers covered by half a point. Those count exactly the same as Cincinnati winning by 22. I checked.

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The only thing standing between me and a perfect week was Tennessee. I guess asking the Titans to win a football game was me being a bit greedy. It happens.

Anyway, we’re back for Week 8.

Both of us get five selections from the same odds board, with a maximum price of -120. Odds were captured Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET.

The stakes are adjusted so every winning bet produces one unit of profit. For example, -110 requires risking 1.10 units, while +110 requires 0.91 units. A push returns the stake and counts as zero units.

Before getting to the new picks, let’s enjoy a results section I actually want to write.

Week 7 NFL Betting Results

Dan’s Week 7 NFL Betting Picks (4-1, +3.11 units)

1. Tennessee Titans Moneyline (+112) ❌ (-0.89 units)
2. Cincinnati Bengals -2½ (-112) ✅ (+1 unit)
3. San Francisco 49ers-Atlanta Falcons Under 49½ (-106) ✅ (+1 unit)
4. New York Giants-Houston Texans Over 42½ (-110) ✅ (+1 unit)
5. Green Bay Packers +3½ (-110) ✅ (+1 unit)

Cincinnati handled Baltimore 35-13, giving both of us a relatively comfortable winner (although the first half was anything but comfortable). Tennessee, meanwhile, lost 27-24 to Cleveland. I backed the Titans to win outright, and that was my one mistake.

Both my totals were sweats, but in a crazy turn of events, the sweats both went my way. Green Bay completed the 4-1 card by losing 20-17 in Detroit. Honestly, the Packers should have won outright, but it doesn't matter for me either way.

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GPT’s Week 7 NFL Betting Picks (2-3, -1.33 units)

1. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-110) ✅ (+1 unit)
2. Cincinnati Bengals -2½ (-112) ✅ (+1 unit)
3. Minnesota Vikings -6½ (-105) ❌ (-1.05 units)
4. Denver Broncos-Arizona Cardinals Under 43½ (-113) ❌ (-1.13 units)
5. Kansas City Chiefs +3 (-115) ❌ (-1.15 units)

The robot cashed Pittsburgh’s 16-10 win over New Orleans in Paris and joined me in backing Cincinnati. Unfortunately, those were its only winners. AI went 0-3 on its other bets and ended the week on a dud of a performance from the Chiefs. I tried to warn the robot about all three of its losses in my pre-week analysis, but it just never listens.

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DAN: 19-15-1, +3.20 units

• Spreads/Moneyline: 12-11-1, +0.54 units
• Totals: 7-4, +2.66 units

GPT: 15-19-1, -5.36 units

• Spreads/Moneyline: 9-13, -4.90 units
• Totals: 6-6-1, -0.46 units

Dan Z.’s Plug Your Nose and Hit ‘Place Bet’ Bet of the Week: 4-2, +2.01 units

Dan’s Week 8 NFL Betting Card

1. Dallas Cowboys -6½ (-120)
2. Baltimore Ravens +3½ (-120)
3. Indianapolis Colts-Jacksonville Jaguars Under 46½ (-108)
4. Los Angeles Chargers +7 (-118)
5. Kansas City Chiefs-Denver Broncos Under 41 (-115)

1. Dallas Cowboys -6½ (-120)

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Dan’s analysis:

We’re going to pay the juice to get under a key number with Dallas. The Cowboys offense finally broke out last week after back-to-back subpar performances in Weeks 5 and 6, and I think they’ve got another big week coming. The Cardinals struggle to score in the red zone, so I think Dallas can win by at least a touchdown. At -6½, that’s enough to cash.

GPT’s analysis:

Dallas’ red-zone efficiency gives it a clear advantage against an Arizona offense that struggles to finish drives. The Cardinals’ offensive-line injuries strengthen that case. My concern is Dallas’ defense allowing Arizona to stay close or score a late touchdown. A seven-point win covers, but that defensive vulnerability kept Dallas outside my five.

2. Baltimore Ravens +3½ (-120)

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Dan’s analysis:

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but we’re paying the juice. I hate betting against Buffalo because Josh Allen is Him, but Baltimore should come out firing with Lamar Jackson back. I’m actually a little surprised this spread is only around a field goal with Buffalo at home, which makes me think bookmakers are begging for Bills action. We’re going to go against their wishes and pay for the hook to get Baltimore at +3½.

GPT’s analysis:

Jackson’s return gives Baltimore a credible way to exploit Buffalo’s vulnerable defense. My concern is his lingering ankle pain against a Bills offense capable of building a lead. I prefer the over, which made my card, but the hook makes Baltimore appealing: a three-point Buffalo victory still cashes this ticket.

3. Indianapolis Colts-Jacksonville Jaguars Under 46½ (-108)

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Dan’s analysis:

The Jags are coming off a bye after back-to-back London weeks, so I see their offense starting slowly in this one. The Colts can’t really score at all, just traded Quenton Nelson and are looking to trade Josh Downs and Jonathan Taylor. With all the uncertainty around a team that already has offensive problems, it’s hard to see where the points are going to come from. Jacksonville’s defense was playing really well before the second London game, when it gave up 34 points against Houston, but the Colts are a perfect bounce-back spot.

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GPT’s analysis:

We agree on this one. Indianapolis’ passing struggles, Jacksonville’s strong run defense and forecast wind support a limited Colts contribution. Losing Quenton Nelson creates another protection concern. The biggest risk is Jacksonville scoring heavily against a defense that just traded DeForest Buckner, particularly if Daniel Jones supplies short fields.

4. Los Angeles Chargers +7 (-118)

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET

Dan’s analysis:

I can’t believe I’m doing this again. I swore off the Chargers, and yet here we are. This just feels like such a big game for the Chargers, and the Rams are all sorts of banged up. Jim Harbaugh said simplifying the playbook was an option. I’m hoping that means leaning on the run game and trying to limit possessions, which favors the Chargers getting a full touchdown. That's why I’d rather pay -118 for +7 than take +6½ at -102.

This is obviously "Dan Z’s Plug Your Nose and Hit ‘Place Bet’ Bet of the Week," but that doesn’t even do it justice. Plug your nose, close your eyes, hell, have someone else place the bet for you.

GPT’s analysis:

The Chargers’ defense and extra preparation give this bet a foundation, while Joe Alt returning and Ladd McConkey being cleared offer hope for offensive improvement. My concern remains an offense averaging just 15 points. Taking a touchdown is understandable, with a seven-point defeat returning the stake, but I prefer the under.

5. Kansas City Chiefs-Denver Broncos Under 41 (-115)

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET

Dan’s analysis:

The Chiefs are second in the NFL, allowing just 17 points per game, and the Denver offense stinks. Quarterback guru and offensive "genius" Sean Payton has a team that has scored 20 points or fewer in four of its seven games. But the Denver defense is rock solid as well. I expect both teams to lean heavily on their run games in an important divisional matchup, so the under is the play for me.

GPT’s analysis:

Denver’s inefficient offense, both teams’ slower pace and Pat Surtain’s return support the under. Rashee Rice returning and injuries elsewhere in both secondaries are the biggest concerns. I lean under, although it missed my five: ordinary stalled possessions can keep this below the number without requiring either defense to dominate.

GPT’s Week 8 NFL Betting Card

For full transparency, I used GPT-6.1 Sol with the thinking effort set to ultra. I supplied the odds board captured Saturday at noon ET and gave it the following prompt:

"Pick your five best bets for Week 8 based on the odds provided. No bet can be priced worse than -120. Review every spread, total and moneyline that falls within those parameters and determine whether it belongs among your five picks. Explain exactly why you’re selecting each of the five bets. Also explain exactly why you’re passing on the eligible bets you don’t select. Use at least 10 different sources for each game so you have a broad understanding of everything surrounding each game. Before delivering the results, do a fact-check and ensure that everything is correct."

1. Baltimore Ravens-Buffalo Bills Over 54½ (-105)
2. Cleveland Browns +3½ (-108)
3. Indianapolis Colts-Jacksonville Jaguars Under 46½ (-108)
4. Minnesota Vikings +3 (+100)
5. Los Angeles Chargers-Los Angeles Rams Under 45½ (-113)

1. Baltimore Ravens-Buffalo Bills Over 54½ (-105)

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

GPT’s analysis:

Buffalo leads the NFL in offensive points per drive at 3.13 while allowing the most defensive points per drive at 2.76. That combination supports scoring from both teams, particularly with Lamar Jackson cleared to return. Jackson’s residual ankle pain and Buffalo listing DJ Moore, Dalton Kincaid and Spencer Brown as questionable are meaningful concerns. Still, Baltimore gets its starting quarterback back against a defense that has repeatedly struggled to end possessions.

The number requires 55 points, but Buffalo’s offensive efficiency and defensive vulnerability make the over my preferred bet.

GPT’s projected score: Bills 31, Ravens 28

Dan’s analysis:

This number is way too high for me to play, but I don’t necessarily hate it. I’d just rather back Baltimore than bet this total.

2. Cleveland Browns +3½ (-108)

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

GPT’s analysis:

Cleveland averages 19 points per game and Pittsburgh 21.9, making the extra half-point above a field goal particularly useful. The Browns have Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson back, while Pittsburgh is missing defensive backs Brandin Echols and Doneiko Slaughter. Cleveland tackle Tytus Howard’s questionable status is the biggest concern against a Pittsburgh pass rush that has Alex Highsmith cleared to play.

I prefer taking the points to asking Cleveland to win outright. Pittsburgh can win a competitive divisional game by a field goal, and this ticket still cashes.

GPT’s projected score: Steelers 23, Browns 20

Dan’s analysis:

I’m not buying Cleveland, and I honestly considered Pittsburgh. But the Browns seem to find a way to keep games close, so that’s why I passed.

3. Indianapolis Colts-Jacksonville Jaguars Under 46½ (-108)

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

GPT’s analysis:

Daniel Jones has four touchdown passes against seven interceptions, while Jacksonville allows just 3.23 yards per carry. That makes it difficult for Indianapolis to compensate for its passing problems through Jonathan Taylor. Quenton Nelson’s departure adds another protection concern, although Sauce Gardner being cleared helps the Colts’ defense. Forecast winds of 13–16 mph provide additional support for the under; showers are expected mainly later in the afternoon.

The biggest concern is Jacksonville scoring heavily against a defense that just lost DeForest Buckner. Still, Indianapolis’ limited scoring outlook makes the under preferable to laying double digits.

GPT’s projected score: Jaguars 27, Colts 16

Dan’s analysis:

We’re on the same page here, GPT. No notes.

4. Minnesota Vikings +3 (+100)

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

GPT’s analysis:

Minnesota leads the NFL in defensive EPA per play and ranks second in defensive DVOA, while Detroit ranks 25th in defensive DVOA. That gives the Vikings a credible way to limit Detroit while finding enough offense against a vulnerable defense. Aaron Jones and Brian O’Neill are cleared, and Detroit safety Kerby Joseph is out. Jared Goff’s excellent performance against blitzes is the biggest concern against Brian Flores’ aggressive approach.

This is my strongest selection at the supplied prices. Even money makes taking the full field goal attractive, with a three-point defeat returning the stake.

GPT’s projected score: Lions 24, Vikings 23

Dan’s analysis:

Another one where I considered playing the other side because the Vikings just aren’t that good. But the defense is legit enough to keep it within a field goal, so I passed on the Lions.

5. Los Angeles Chargers-Los Angeles Rams Under 45½ (-113)

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET

GPT’s analysis:

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The Chargers average just 15 points per game and rank last in offensive EPA per play. Their defense has been considerably better, ranking ninth in EPA per play, while the Rams rank seventh. That supports an under without requiring the Rams to win comfortably. Joe Alt returning and Ladd McConkey being cleared give the Chargers reasons for improvement after their bye. Derwin James’ absence also creates opportunities for Matthew Stafford.

Those are legitimate risks, but the Chargers’ sustained offensive problems and both defenses’ efficiency make staying below 46 more appealing than choosing a side.

GPT’s projected score: Rams 24, Chargers 17

Dan’s analysis:

This number is pretty high for a Chargers offense that is probably the worst in the NFL. I understand the under, but I’d rather take the points with the Chargers.

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That’s it for Week 8! We paid some hefty prices to get the numbers we wanted, and I really want to follow up my 4-1 week with another winning slate. Check back next week to see if the strategy pays off.

College Football brings us another great slate of football games on Saturday. The past few weeks have been full of upsets and wild games. It seems like no one can keep hold of the top few spots in the rankings this year. That provides a much more enjoyable watch than chalky outcomes. After all, we are watching kids play a sport, and most won’t continue on to play professionally. One of the two matches between ranked teams happens today, so we know both of them will move up or down the Top-25 list after this, with Arizona taking on Texas Tech.

Arizona comes into the game with a 6-1 record and a 3-1 mark in the Big 12. They are ranked 22nd in the nation. The Wildcats started their season with a win over Northern Arizona. Then in Week 2, they had to face BYU, and we’ve seen the Cougars be one of the best teams in the country. Arizona lost this game 28-17. Since that loss, they’ve run off five straight wins over Northern Illinois, Washington State, Cincinnati, West Virginia, and Iowa State.

The Wildcats really haven’t had a tough game outside of the matchup with BYU. They only have two other ranked teams on the schedule – today against Texas Tech, and in a few weeks against Utah. If they can win both of those games, they have at least a legitimate shot to win the Big 12, and they could even find their way into the College Football Playoffs. He hasn’t gotten a ton of attention in the Heisman talk, but Noah Fifita has been fantastic for the team. Fifita is completing 75% of passes, has 18 touchdowns, and four interceptions.

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Texas Tech is currently ranked 13th in the nation, and they are 6-1 for the year as well. They also have a 3-1 record in Big 12 play. Their lone loss of the season came last week in shocking fashion to Cincinnati. It wasn’t particularly close, either. They went on the road, and they dropped the game to the Bearcats 37-24. The biggest issue in this game was probably the turnovers from Texas Tech. They threw an interception and had two fumbles lost. It didn’t help that the Bearcats scored 24 points in the 2nd quarter of the game, and all of them within the last eight minutes of the half.

Texas Tech had been rolling before last week. They won the first six games of the season. In the first game, they beat Abilene Christian by 23. In Week 2, they were able to top Oregon State by 11 points. In Week 3, they had their first test, and that was a battle against Houston. In that game, they won 28-26, but clearly it was a close battle. The next three games were fairly easy matchups with Sam Houston, Colorado, and Arizona State all not putting up much of a fight against the Red Raiders.

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This afternoon’s game is a battle between two Big 12 beasts. The Wildcats have a legitimate shot at pulling off the upset. I really like the way that Fifita has played and positioned his squad for wins. Texas Tech’s defense has been a big piece of their game, and I’ve been pretty unimpressed with their offense. I think these two teams are fairly evenly matched. I know Texas Tech will be looking for revenge or to bounce back. I’m going to take the Wildcats with the points, though. I think they have the right offense to battle against Texas Tech. Give me Arizona +3.5.

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There are only about five games remaining for most teams before we start to get into Bowl season and the Conference Championship games. There has been a ton of fluctuation on the Top 25 this season, with very few teams looking like a confident option to make it into the College Football Playoffs. Florida and Georgia play today, and a win here for Florida would go a long way for its case and probably hurt the Bulldogs quite a bit.

The Florida Gators are 5-2 for the season, with both losses coming in SEC games. This has been a hard team to judge this year. The Gators have had some really good games, and then a few ugly ones. Their best game came when they destroyed the Ole Miss Rebels. That was a ranked matchup, at home, and they took down the team with a solid 52-28 victory. Unfortunately for them, their success was rather short-lived.

The next week against Missouri, they lost 45-17, barely even showing up for the game. It didn’t get any better the following week as they lost that game 38-19 to South Carolina. That’s a game they will want back at the end of the year. Two weeks ago, they went into Texas and won that game 27-24. It is a bit confusing how the team could’ve beaten both Ole Miss and Texas, but lost to Missouri and South Carolina. The schedule doesn’t really get easier, either. The Gators have Georgia today, and then they face Kentucky in a couple of weeks. Plus Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Florida State are still on the schedule. It does seem like if they lose here but win out, there is still a case to be made for them making the College Football Playoffs, but it would be unlikely.

Georgia is one of the best teams in the country as usual, but the Bulldogs did lose the last game they played. They are 6-1 for the season, with the lone loss coming two weeks ago against Auburn. They had a bye week last week, so they’ve been stewing on it for a few weeks. This is a team that knows how to rebound from losses, but it does feel like the loss never should’ve happened in the first place. This is also the start of three straight games against ranked opponents.

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To start the year, Georgia rocked Tennessee State, then took down Western Kentucky, winning both by more than 50 points. The Bulldogs played Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt in the next three weeks, winning all of them by multiple scores. Against Alabama, in Alabama, the defense did everything it needed to do. The Bulldogs won 20-17 over their rivals, but that may have set up the letdown against Auburn.

Georgia and Florida should put on a good show for us. Both have been off for a week, so they could start a bit slowly. The two of them should have had plenty of time to prepare for this matchup. I don’t see this game being a high-scoring matchup. I feel like each possession will be important. Georgia doesn’t want to lose back-to-back games. Florida can’t really afford to have a third loss on its record. I’m going to take the Gators +12.5, but I do feel like this will be a bit of a nail-biter situation.

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