President Donald Trump is headed back to South Carolina on Thursday, as Republicans grow increasingly worried that Sen. Darline Graham’s once-safe seat could be slipping away.

“It’s a f—-ing train wreck,” Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., said of the race on Wednesday. “It’s a mess.”

Mace told MS NOW that, in both public and private polling, Graham is up in some surveys and down in others, prompting concern among South Carolina Republicans.

“It’s not good,” she said.

A South Carolina GOP official who had also seen private polling on the race struck a similar note, telling MS NOW the election is “tighter than where it needs to be.”

The Republican, who requested anonymity to discuss the race without prompting backlash from the party, said the amount of capital Republicans are allocating toward South Carolina — both in dollars and in the president’s time — was jarring.

“The fact that we’re having to spend time and resources in South Carolina is wild,” the official said.

“The president’s taken a lot of time to go to a lot of different states, including ours,” the GOP official added. “And a lot of that is arguably avoidable, or was avoidable.”

Trump is scheduled to visit South Carolina for the second time in the past two weeks — his third visit in three months — as Graham’s campaign faces a series of recent bad breaks.

On Wednesday, a poll from The New York Times/Siena University reported that Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews were tied at 48%. On Monday, former South Carolina governors — one Democrat and one Republican — issued a joint endorsement for Andrews. And on Friday, the son of South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman penned an op-ed saying he couldn’t vote for Graham.

“There is no true conservative to vote for in this election,” Norman’s son, Warren, wrote.

(Norman lost to Graham in the August primary, but he carried the area where Trump is visiting — Rock Hill, South Carolina, Norman’s hometown — by 28 points.)

The gloomy assessment from Republicans comes with just five days to go until Election Day, as South Carolina’s Senate seat — and the party’s overall control of the Senate — hang in the balance.

The ruby-red Palmetto State hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998, but polls show this year could be the one to break that streak.

As Trump lands in the state, some Republicans see the visit as a double-edged sword.

On one hand, Republicans say Trump has an innate ability to turn out his base, a bloc of voters that is crucial to Graham’s winning coalition.

“He’s going to have to drag her across the finish line,” Mace said of Trump. “If MAGA doesn’t show up to vote on Tuesday, she loses.”

But on the other hand, Republicans warn that some voters could be turned off by Trump’s heavy involvement in the race. The president encouraged South Carolina Gov. H.R. McMaster to appoint Graham to finish her brother’s term. He also urged Graham to jump into the race for the full six-year term. And once she did, the president endorsed her.

“He’s trying to force-feed the candidate for her victory with the people in South Carolina,” Norman said.

Mace used an even more vivid metaphor. “This was shoved down their throat,” she said, “and they don’t like it.”

The sentiment feeds into a broader concern among voters that Graham is only on the ticket because of her last name, a whisper that has grown louder throughout her three-month crash course in elected politics.

“They don’t believe in nepotism,” Mace said.

Of course, plenty of Republicans insist that Graham is in fine shape. A South Carolina GOP strategist, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the race, said Trump’s visit would help her campaign.

“Among the voters that we need to energize and get out to the polls, he is effective,” the operative said. “The people who don’t like Trump, or don’t like the Republican Party, were not going to vote for us anyway.”

But the data suggests that Graham has her work cut out for her on bringing Republicans home.

The New York Times/Siena poll found that just 80% of Republicans were backing Graham — a strikingly low figure compared with the 97% of Democratic support Andrews has secured. Notably, the poll was conducted after Trump rallied twice in the state.

The lagging GOP dynamic is personified by Norman. The South Carolina Republican has said on countless occasions that he plans to vote for Graham, citing a unity pledge he previously signed. But it’s clear he’s not excited about it.

Norman told MS NOW he had no plans to campaign with Graham in the final stretch, noting that he declined an invite to join her on the trail a month ago. Norman also refused to say Graham’s name when asked three times who he was voting for, simply responding, “I support the Republican candidate.”

He also questioned whether Graham had any political opinions beyond Trump.

“What position does she have other than she likes Donald Trump?” he asked.

A write-in campaign is underway for Norman, but he says he’s not involved.

The question of Graham’s beliefs hits on her biggest vulnerability: Many voters are still wondering who she is and what she stands for, and they remain skeptical of her qualifications after she said she was “not that informed on national security” on the debate stage in August.

“Her debate performance in the runoff hurt her tremendously,” the South Carolina GOP official, who had seen polling after the debate, said. “And it’s shaking people’s confidence that, like, who are we electing?”

The numbers also reflect that narrative. Twenty-six percent of likely voters polled by The New York Times/Siena said they were voting for Andrews because they had a negative view of Graham’s character or competence. Of that group, 48% were Republicans.

Supporters of Graham have chalked up those dips to the short runway she has had to introduce herself to voters. Wednesday’s rally comes just three months after her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, died.

“Time has not ever been on our side,” the South Carolina GOP strategist said.

But Norman said the president’s actions speak louder than projected optimism and spin.

Asked if Graham’s campaign was in trouble, he pointed to the president’s travel.

“Do you think he’d be coming down here for the second time to South Carolina if she wasn’t?” Norman asked. “No.”

The post ‘Train wreck’: Republicans panic over South Carolina Senate race as Trump swoops in appeared first on MS NOW.

COLUMBIA, S.C. — Annie Andrews says, “Democrats have failed on the border.” She says, “I don’t support Medicare for All.” Asked which national Democrat she would want campaigning with her, she didn’t name one.

Days before Election Day, Andrews is tied with Republican Sen. Darline Graham, in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in almost 30 years. A New York Times/Siena poll released Wednesday puts both candidates at 48%, with 3% undecided.

Andrews, a pediatrician who has never held public office, is running as a centrist, criticizing her own party on some issues and praising the Trump administration on others.

While moderate messaging is little surprise from a Democrat in ruby-red South Carolina, what stands out is how much distance she has put between herself and the national Democratic brand.

Her lines on the border and Medicare for All came at a debate this month where she also hit back at Graham for calling her a “socialist” and trying to brand her “Bernie Ocasio Mamdani.”

On the campaign trail, she has expressed support for no taxes on tips or Social Security, a key provision from the GOP’s reconciliation bill, and likes reminding voters that she was “raised in a Republican household.” But she has also criticized the Iran war, called President Donald Trump’s attacks on her “not presidential” and slammed his tariffs as “unconstitutional.”

For Andrews, the moderate modus operandi is a no-brainer.

“It’s common sense, because I believe all those things,” she told MS NOW of her strategy during an interview in Columbia. “Democrats have failed on the border, and I am not, in fact, a socialist.”

Andrews compared tailoring her message to developing a treatment plan for a patient.

“You can’t make a diagnosis if you don’t listen, and then coming up with a plan to fix it,” she said. “That’s what I’ve been doing in every corner of the state and that’s what people are responding to.”

The poll suggests the approach is resonating. Andrews wins 97% of Democrats, but she also draws 59% of independents and 22% of Republicans, according to the new poll — a remarkable share of GOP voters in a state as conservative as South Carolina.

Andrews is pitching directly to that coalition.

“Whether you voted for Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, or anyone else, if you care more about your bills than the politics in Washington, this campaign is for you,” Andrews said in a statement reacting to the poll. “That’s why independents and Republicans are joining this campaign, and that’s why we’re going to win.”

Andrews’ message reflects the mood on the ground.

Ryan Manuelsmith, a 29-year-old substitute teacher from Columbia, is a lifelong Republican who plans to vote for Andrews. It will be the first time he has voted for a Democrat. He told MS NOW he was “disillusioned” with the Republican Party and was drawn to Andrews’ middle-of-the-road approach.

“I looked at Dr. Andrews’ platform and positions, and I don’t agree with all of them, but overall, I think she’s the best option for this country,” Manuelsmith said. “I think she’s the best option for the state.”

He acknowledged that South Carolina is “a very conservative state” and is unlikely to change “to be very leftist and progressive very quickly.”

“So I think, in general, I think moderate politics is more needed in this country as a whole — but I think if you’re going to be a Democrat and you want to win a statewide election in the great state of South Carolina, you got to be on the more moderate end,” he said.

It isn’t only disaffected Republicans who like the approach. Deborah Martin, a 71-year-old retired law enforcement officer from Columbia and a longtime Democrat, said she was “fine with” Andrews’ down-the-middle strategy.

“I think that is a good way to go,” Martin said. “We need to be able to go both sides of the area and get people to get behind her, and I think that’s a good route to go.”

Andrews is leaning into her centrist pitch in the final stretch of what has been a roller-coaster race in the Palmetto State. In a sign of the height of the stakes, Trump is scheduled to return to South Carolina on Thursday for another rally with Graham. It will be his second in two weeks and his third in three months.

The visit comes a little over three months after the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham — an event that began Darline Graham’s political career and gave Andrews a new opponent in the race.

Trump will speak in Rock Hill, in a northern part of the state that Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., carried in the primary. His remarks will almost certainly include attacks on Andrews, who has become one of the president’s favorite targets.

At previous rallies and on Truth Social, Trump has used an anti-transgender slur to refer to Andrews. Her response to his first use of the word was another break from some in her party.

“I want you to hear me loud and clear: I don’t support biological men playing women’s sports and I don’t support — and haven’t ever performed — gender surgery for minors,” she said in an ad.

Graham, meanwhile, has been hacking away at Andrews’ moderate approach. During an interview on “The Brian Kilmeade Show” this week, Graham accused Andrews of “deceiving” South Carolinians.

“Now all of a sudden she’s running these ads like she’s some moderate — I mean, it’s a complete lie,” Graham said, pointing to her stance on transgender surgeries and guns. “She’s deceiving the people of South Carolina, and like I’ve told several people, that’s really what bothers me more than everything.”

“She’s lying to the great people of South Carolina,” she added.

Andrews has kept her party at arm’s length in other ways, too. In the postdebate spin room this month, MS NOW asked her which national Democrat would be most effective campaigning with her in the closing stretch. Her answer was blunt.

“I’m not looking for any partnerships with national Democrats right now because this race is about returning this Senate seat to the people of South Carolina,” she responded.

She has brought in a few national figures, including Democratic Sens. Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island. But she has kept her pitch aimed at voters across the spectrum.

“This is a campaign, as I said on the stage, that is for independents who are ready for change, for Republicans who feel left behind by their own party and for Democrats who are daring to feel hopeful,” she said.

The post As Trump heads to South Carolina, Democrats eye an upset appeared first on MS NOW.

PEARL RIVER, N.Y. — Reps. Mike Lawler and Brian Fitzpatrick are the only two Republicans running for re-election this year in districts where Vice President Kamala Harris prevailed in 2024. And while Democrats are confident that a blue wave will finally wash away these two GOP lawmakers, both think they can once again rise above the political tide — by deploying similar but distinctly different strategies.

“When I agree with the president, I say it. When I disagree with him, I say it,” Lawler, referring to Donald Trump, told MS NOW in an interview on the sidelines of the Pearl River Day street fair. “I have a pretty clear record of pushing back on things that matter to my district and my constituents.”

Fitzpatrick has embraced a similar approach. The Pennsylvania Republican told MS NOW during an interview in Bensalem, Pennsylvania, that voters “feel the way they’re going to feel about the president.”

“My job is to represent a district, and that means opposing him when doing so is in the interest of our district,” he said. “That means supporting policies, no matter who introduces them, when doing so is in the interest of our district.”

For both Republicans, the “disagree when I disagree” approach carries some risks. They could alienate some GOP voters and draw the ire of a temperamental president. But the strategy may also be overstated: Fitzpatrick has voted with Trump roughly 77% of the time, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer. And a 2025 analysis from Congressional Quarterly found that Lawler voted with Trump 94% of the time.

But thus far, the strategy appears to be working. Recent polling shows Lawler neck and neck with Democrat Cait Conley and Fitzpatrick in a close race with Democrat Bob Harvie. Notably, both parties together have dumped more than $80 million into advertisements in the two races, according to AdImpact.

Harris did win a third district that’s currently represented by a Republican. But that GOP lawmaker, Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, isn’t running for re-election, and Democrats think they will pick up that seat.

The situation is much less clear in the cases of Lawler and Fitzpatrick.

In 2024, Lawler won re-election in his Hudson Valley district by 6.3%, sailing to his second term in Congress. That same year, Harris won the district by 0.6%.

The margins were even more pronounced for Fitzpatrick, who marched to a fifth term representing his Bucks County district in 2024 by 12.8%. Harris, meanwhile, carried his district by 0.4%.

Same goal, different playbook

While Lawler and Fitzpatrick share a goal — embrace the president when it helps and distance themselves when it hurts — their playbooks are slightly different.

For every step Lawler has moved away from Trump, he has also taken a step toward him. The New York Republican has criticized the president on a number of policies, including his decision to end Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants, parts of his memorandum of understanding with Iran and, most recently, the rollback of sanctions on Russia.

But Lawler also appeared with Trump at a rally the president held in Rockland County in May, and he spoke at the Republican convention in September — an event that many battleground Republicans skipped.

For Lawler, the calculus is simple.

“He’s the president of the United States, and whether it was Joe Biden or Donald Trump, you show up when the president comes to your district,” Lawler said, noting that he attended Biden’s event in his district in 2023.

“In order to be effective, you got to be able to deal with the president, and I’ve done that,” he said.

Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, has kept Trump at a greater distance. The Pennsylvania Republican did not attend the GOP convention, has never appeared with Trump at a campaign rally and isn’t even endorsed by the president.

Fitzpatrick was also one of just two Republicans to vote against the GOP’s reconciliation package last year, and he was one of the first Republicans to vote to curb Trump’s authority in Iran.

“If he conducts himself in a manner that’s unbecoming — which he has, very, very often — I will say so,” Fitzpatrick said.

But, he added, there is a balance.

“That doesn’t mean you just make a living out of just poking people in the eye all day, every day,” he said.

The slightly different strategies for Lawler and Fitzpatrick are coming into focus one week before Election Day. Democrats need to flip just four seats to take control of the House — and both Lawler and Fitzpatrick are prime targets.

However, as Republicans begin spending in districts where Trump won by double digits, Lawler and Fitzpatrick have stubbornly made both of their races no sure thing.

Still, even as public polls show the races in dead heats, Democrats are projecting confidence.

“This is the year that Brian Fitzpatrick and Mike Lawler lose their seats,” a Democratic strategist working on House races told MS NOW.

The operative, who requested anonymity to candidly discuss the elections, cited Harvie’s roots in Bucks County and Conley’s status as a decorated combat veteran.

“It’s why Republicans spent millions to meddle in the Democratic primary,” the strategist said. “They are scared to death of losing to her next week.”

The voters

For voters, the question of whether Lawler and Fitzpatrick are genuinely independent is far from settled.

Roger DeBonis, a financial adviser from Tappan, New York, told MS NOW he is a Trump supporter voting for Lawler, citing the congressman’s independent streak.

“He doesn’t just tow the line for the Republican Party,” DeBonis said. “I happen to be a very big fan of our president, but he’s not right all the time.”

Bernadette Murray, a 65-year-old accountant from Pearl River, told MS NOW she’s voting for Conley. Asked about Lawler’s moderate streak, Murray said she didn’t really think it made a difference.

“Republicans are never going to go anywhere,” she said. “I think he’s just in a party that is just failing, hurting people left and right.”

Plenty of voters — perhaps a decisive number — remain persuadable.

Jeanine Salvato, a 62-year-old retiree from Pomona, told MS NOW she voted for Harris in 2024 and was planning on supporting Conley. But after meeting Lawler at the street fair, she’s reconsidering.

“When I spoke to him, he kind of reiterated that and said he’s more in the middle,” Salvato said, adding that Lawler “pushes back when he can, and I think that’s important.”

Voters in Pennsylvania’s 1st District are similarly divided. Some see Fitzpatrick’s middle-of-the-road approach as genuine. Others say it’s an act.

Linda Crawe, an assistant deli manager from Bucks County, told MS NOW she is voting for Fitzpatrick and supports his independent streak.

“I do support Trump, but sometimes there are things that can go either way,” Crawe said.

In contrast, Michelle Tobia, an 81-year-old retired nurse from Philadelphia, said she is voting for Harvie because Fitzpatrick is “a chameleon.”

Carol Mikulsky, a 72-year-old retiree, also plans to vote for Harvie, though she’s not sure this will be the year Democrats oust Fitzpatrick.

“We’re in a purple district,” she said. “I think the turnout is good, we have a chance. But I still think it’s going to be difficult.”

The path to victory

Despite the challenges, both Republicans believe the political makeup of their districts gives them a path to victory.

For Lawler, it’s a numbers game. He points to the shrinking Democratic advantage in his district: In 2020, Joe Biden won New York’s 17th District by 10.1 percentage points, compared with Harris’ 0.6-point victory in 2024.

Lawler also noted that polling suggests voters’ opinions of Trump have remained remarkably consistent. In more than a dozen surveys of his district he has conducted over the past four years, he said, Trump’s disapproval rating has hovered around 49%.

The statistics lead Lawler to believe that voter feelings about Trump are largely baked in — and that winning requires appealing to both his supporters and his critics.

“People are frustrated across the board,” Lawler said. “But I can tell you, this district is notorious for being ticket-splitters — for being pragmatic, for being commonsense.”

For Fitzpatrick, the argument is less about data and more about demographics. While the Democratic margin of victory on the presidential level decreased from 2020 to 2024 — 4.6% to 0.4% — the Pennsylvania Republican cited the broad coalition of support he has built.

“I have a ton of Democrat supporters, independent supporters and Republican supporters,” Fitzpatrick said. “I also have detractors in both parties, because many in the parties want me to be ideologically pure on one side or the other.”

With Election Day approaching, Lawler and Fitzpatrick are confident they can win. But they are also confident in their brand of politics — a style that, they say, is the only kind they can perform.

“This is the only kind of district I could represent,” Fitzpatrick said. “I could never represent a lopsided district, and I’ve thought about that a lot. When people say it’s a tough district, it’s not tough for me. Any other district would be tough for me.”

Lawler, in true New York fashion, was even blunter: “To me, I am who I am, and I don’t care the political consequence of standing up for what I believe in.”

“And if it pissed them off,” he said, “so be it.”

The post The only two Republicans defending blue districts have very different playbooks appeared first on MS NOW.