INDIA’S nuclear jingoism was on ample display during Operation Marka-i-Haq in May 2025 when it fired dual-use BrahMos cruise missiles with conventional payload, unmindful of the fact that the dangerous caper could have been misconstrued by Pakistani air defenders as a nuclear attack. Despite an agreement on pre-notification of flight testing of ballistic missiles, the Indians, while testing the Agni V MIRV-capable missile, have shown a blithe disregard for established pre-notification protocols that mandate a 72-hour pre-test notification, a fact pointed out by Pakistan’s Foreign Office in 2024.

While the Indians keep up an implacable momentum of vertical proliferation of nuclear and missile technology, the world indulges them through exceptionalism enshrined in the nuclear waiver for the Nuclear Suppliers Group and membership of the Missile Technology Control Regime.

The Indians have slyly wangled the concession from the USA and IAEA in the civil nuclear deal to keep eight reactors out of IAEA oversight. These pressurised heavy water reactors consume less nuclear fuel than they produce, which can be harvested for strategic military purposes.

It should be remembered that it was the Indians who introduced the nuclear arms race in the subcontinent because of their grandiose big-power pretensions. Their nuclear explosions in 1974 and 1998 forced Pakistan to follow suit out of its security compulsions.

The world indulges India through nuclear exceptionalism.

The Indian nuclear security architecture was provided conceptual ballast by Gen K. Sunderji and Krishna Subramanyam in the 1980s, when they came up with the notion of no-first use of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear nation, with a caveat of making an exception for biological and chemical attacks. However, India kept developing its conventional forces, especially the armoured and mechanised component, as per the Sunderji doctrine, aimed at tearing Pakistan asunder.

On the geopolitical level the Indians have acquiesced to the status of a regional surrogate to accommodate balancing needs of the US vis-a-vis a rising global competitor, China. While enjoying nuclear exceptionalism the Indians went on a shopping spree for nuclear technology as well as the conventional hardware to operationalise the military strategy that sought an elusive space for conventional wars under the nuclear overhang.

The operational manifestation of these military ambitions was a slew of concepts starting with Cold Start and graduating to proactive operations. The latest manifestation of those concepts is the Dynamic Response Strategy that is based on rapidly deployable all-arms-based integrated battle groups and multidomain-enabled terrain-customised brigade-sized groups called Rudra Brigades.

Pakistan relies on its full-spectrum deterrence, keeping strategic nuclear ambiguity for greater liberty of action to deny India the space for conventional conflict.

While India deploys non-state actors to keep Pakistan destabilised through terrorism, it cleverly conflates Pakistan’s principled support to the victims of Indian state repression in Occupied Kashmir, a UNSC-recognised dispute, with militancy. It has also withdrawn from its international law commitments by illegally holding the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance and imperilling the food security of Pakistan.

India under the BJP and RSS sway has adopted a foreign policy based upon the antiquated notion of ‘Akhand Bharat’ that covets the territories of neighbours based on historical myths. The inflammatory statement of Prime Mi­­ni­s­ter Narendra Modi at Bar­m­­er, Rajasthan, during an el­­e­ction rally that “Indian nukes are not kept for Diwali” in­­dicates a bellicose mi­­­ndset.

It is against the backdrop of the above facts that the notions of nuclear deterrence in the subcontinent have to be understood. Since the stability of nuclear deterrence is based upon nuclear dialectics between two rational actors, Indian irrationality adds dangerous instability to the nuclear equation.

The deployment of canisterised ground-based ready-to-use nuclear missiles and the submarine-launched nuclear ballistic missiles point to an aggressive nuclear intent when viewed in the context of Indo-Pak distrust and irrationality of the ideologically driven BJP leadership.

The well-known military historian Martin Van Creveld had coined a term for wars in the nuclear era: “Non-trinitarian”, where, unlike Clausewitz’s trinitarian wars, the only political objective would be deterring and not winning the wars.

Whether India has strengthened or reduced its strategic deterrence by fielding shallow-range submarine-based missiles is a point to ponder by Indian nuclear strategists.

The writer is a PhD from NUST.

rwjanj@hotmail.com

Published in Dawn, October 30th, 2026

Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, said a security breach had resulted in an estimated $6.3 billion impact that analysts said could amount to the biggest crypto heist ever and might make investors rethink the risks of owning digital assets.

Binance said it had worked with partners to freeze the affected assets, with about $3 billion located so far. It gave no update on the status of the remaining $3.3 billion as Binance co-founder Yi He said the company would cover “all hacking losses”.

An initial investigation suggested the breach may have started with a hacked laptop belonging to one of its engineers, which let an attacker gain access to one of its systems and make unauthorised withdrawals, Binance said.

Markets reacted immediately in early Asian trading on Friday.

Bitcoin dropped more than 3 per cent to a six-week low of $76,368 and ether fell more than 3pc to a two-month low of $2,178. BNB, a token originally launched as Binance Coin that can be used to pay Binance fees, was down 5pc over the past 24 hours at $709.70, according to market aggregator CoinGecko.

Shares in crypto exchange Coinbase Global slid 4.8pc while those of bitcoin buyer Strategy fell nearly 6pc in extended US trading.

The incident could be the world’s biggest crypto heist, according to analytics firm Chainalysis and other industry experts.

“It’s the biggest hack in history,” said Aravind Srinivasan, head of large crypto market maker GSR’s systematic OTC business.

Beyond the potential loss of assets, the security breach was likely to have wider ramifications for crypto, which had already been under pressure lately due to higher US interest rates and softer demand from exchange-traded fund buyers, analysts said.

“It may further dampen risk appetite and prompt investors to reassess the safety of assets held on centralised exchanges, as well as counterparty, solvency and liquidity risks,” said Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, based in Hong Kong.

Binance, which allows users to buy, sell and trade digital assets, has 335 million registered users globally and had about $162.8 billion in assets under custody as of the exchange’s 2025 annual report.

“User funds remain safe,” Binance said in a statement.

“As a precaution, all deposits and withdrawals are temporarily suspended while our security teams conduct checks, secure wallet infrastructure, and trace affected assets, with the close support of our law enforcement and industry partners.”

Binance has secure asset fund

Binance runs a secure asset fund for users, which is a reserve held entirely in bitcoin that is intended to protect user assets in cases of security breaches, according to its website.

“It’s becoming very hard to counter hacks as AI can find vulnerabilities faster than you can fix them,” said Bernardo Brites, CEO of Trace Finance, a payments and stablecoin infrastructure company.

“My view is that users will move away from smaller and medium-sized exchanges, (it is) becoming too risky to park your money somewhere that couldn’t cover a hack of meaningful size.”

Stablecoin issuer Tether said it had frozen nearly $1.57 billion in assets linked to the incident, while Circle froze more than $800 million.

World Liberty Financial, a crypto company linked to US President Donald Trump and his family, said on Thursday it had worked with cryptocurrency custodian BitGo to freeze funds stolen in what it described as a Binance hack. Binance’s Yi said $27 million in stablecoins and about $2 million worth of World Liberty tokens had been frozen.

Crypto firm Ripple also froze roughly $200 million in funds, Yi said. Jack McDonald, senior vice president of stablecoins at Ripple, said the company was closely monitoring reports of a potential exploit involving Binance and was freezing affected funds and coordinating with relevant parties.

Incident adds to string of crypto thefts

Miguel Morel, CEO of blockchain intelligence firm Arkham, said data indicated that billions of dollars appeared to have been hacked from Binance by an unknown actor.

The incident adds to a string of crypto thefts. Last year, attackers stole $2.9 billion worth of cryptocurrency across nearly 150 attacks, according to researchers at TRM Labs. In September, cryptocurrency exchange Bitget said roughly $350 million in crypto had been stolen from its platform, underscoring the industry’s vulnerability to hackers.

Authorities have warned that organised crime groups are increasingly using cryptocurrencies to move funds across borders outside the traditional financial system.

Binance.US, a separate cryptocurrency exchange, said it was not affected by the security incident.

Coinbase said it was unaffected and was monitoring the situation.

In an unrelated incident earlier on Thursday, prediction market operator Polymarket temporarily halted trading after a security incident involving a third-party provider. It later resumed trading and said it would fully reimburse affected traders.

FEW companies are hailed as proof of free-market genius more than Tesla. Yet, at every turn that mattered, it stood on public capital.

In 2010 it borrowed $465m from a US federal programme open to every carmaker building cleaner vehicles, in a country where transport is now the largest source of greenhouse gases. It paid the Treasury’s own cost, roughly one to 3.4 per cent, with principal deferred until production began. One of the smallest borrowers, it became the star, repaying with interest nine years early. Regulatory credits, earned by beating emission rules and bought by those that fall short, then carried it into profit.

Pakistan asks its banks to do alone what no quintessential capitalist economy asks of its own: lend to priority sectors without the state sharing the risk and the price. This is not a lesson taken from state-led economies such as China, where public support is part of the model. It comes from the market economies themselves, which do it openly and without apology. Tesla is not their exception; it is their method.

Look at where they aim interest subsidies, and how deep. Farming comes first: America lends beginning farmers money to buy land at under 2pc and caps their operating microloans at 5pc, while Canada pays the interest on the first C$250,000 of each grower’s cash advance. Housing is next: France gives first-time buyers zero-interest loans and compensates banks through tax credits. Then enterprise: Britain lends start-ups unsecured at a fixed 6pc, with mentoring, and its firms outlive their peers; Germany’s KfW cheapens founders’ loans and absorbs four-fifths of any loss so local banks will lend.

In every case, the taxpayer took the first risk and part of the financing cost, at the stage private finance would not, and demanded performance in return. And the subsidy went to the borrower, the priority-sector player, not the lender: the bank is paid only the market interest the borrower is spared.

Subsidies have built giants, and an emerging economy needs them more, not less.

That is the global norm. Why, then, is Pakistan so averse to it? Here, subsidy for producers is treated as a dirty word, subsidised credit is misread as a benefit to banks, and lenders are blamed for holding back from risks their peers abroad never shoulder unaided. Asking them to match the world’s lending without the world’s toolkit is neither fair nor realistic.

The money exists; its direction is the problem. This year’s federal budget allocates Rs838bn to the Benazir Income Support Programme, up by a sixth, and almost as much to the power sector; provincial budgets add their own spending on wheat, fertiliser and household relief. Little of it is designed to make the poor bankable.

BISP is indispensable. Reaching some 10 million families through a national registry and digital payments, it is one of the country’s institutional achievements, and that safety net must stay. But a stipend, by its nature, protects rather than transforms. A net that never becomes a springboard keeps the poor safe, but poor.

BISP must now be balanced with wealth creation at the lower strata of society, so that families able to work have a path from support to enterprise. Wealth, like subsidy, is not a bad word. It can be created at every level, including the bottom, and it is what keeps incomes rising sustainably. The cliché about wealth must go, just like subsidies.

So add a ramp without lowering the floor: dedicate a tenth of BISP’s allocation to an enterprise window within the programme; that is smaller than this year’s increase, so no family need receive less than last year.

Run it as the world does. Target precisely: older people, persons with disabilities and households with no working member keep their full stipend; working-age households, starting with the women BISP serves, get concessional credit for livestock, horticulture, cottage industry, solar trades and digital work. Price it for the borrower: the first loan interest-free and repeat loans at no more than 5pc, the state paying the difference. Pay for delivery: lenders earn the subsidy only for verified results, and every loan comes with training and a mentor. Build the exit: the stipend tapers only once the business stands, and the subsidy steps down with each cycle.

Even at today’s rates, that tenth could carry some Rs400bn of lending: over a million small businesses. Audit it independently after three years; scale it only if it works.

Two objections deserve answers. Credit alone, global trials show, raises poor families’ incomes only modestly; what lifts them for good is capital paired with training and continued support while the business finds its feet, which is this design. Nor does the window raid BISP: it is paid for from the programme’s growth and serves the same households.

It is time to retire the reflex that subsidies never create wealth or welfare. Bad design is bad; subsidy is not, if it pays for the initial risk rather than permanent inefficiency. Subsidies have built giants, and an emerging economy needs them more, not less.

Washington’s decisive bet on Tesla was not a stipend but a loan, tied to milestones. Pakistan’s Teslas are smaller — a woman’s dairy herd, a tailor’s workshop, a graduate’s laptop — but they deserve the same deal: capital to start, conditions to keep, and a way out. Then the cycle begins again with the next borrower. That is routine in every quintessential capitalist economy, and it should be in Pakistan too.

The writer is a development-focused and impact-oriented banker.

Published in Dawn, October 30th, 2026

PARLIAMENT has recently been debating the future of Pakistani democracy, but those debates will be for naught unless our leaders also develop the capacity to acknowledge each other’s positions.

The past two days have seen the government and opposition benches trading blame for democracy’s present, rather sorry state.

On Wednesday, JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman accused the government of misusing the Constitution and resorting to unconstitutional measures. He also said his party was “prepared to die” resisting the government if the latter continued pursuing a policy of confrontation and violence, and proposed a new Charter of Democracy as the way out.

Regretting that his efforts to mediate between the government and the PTI had failed because the government had changed course and imposed an emergency and governor’s rule in KP, the maulana said the political leadership had grown too intolerant for parliament to do its job.

He was not wrong, though the fault is hardly the government’s alone.

The maulana’s rebuke drew two kinds of response. Minister of Defence Khawaja Asif resorted to personal attacks, insinuating that the JUI-F chief was merely sore at being denied a share of power in KP.

PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, on the other hand, was more circumspect. Though he, too, laid much of the blame for parliament’s dysfunction on the opposition, he nonetheless urged it to exercise its powers and return to parliamentary committees.

“Those who want this House to remain dysfunctional and do not want the people of Pakistan to benefit from it have succeeded,” he told the opposition benches. “You have played a part in helping these people achieve their objective.” It was a surprisingly candid admission that the House’s dysfunction serves interests other than the people’s, even if the PPP chief left out his own party’s role in getting us here.

They may have yet to come to terms with it, but both ruling and opposition parties have lost credibility and political ground due to their ongoing vendetta. The maulana’s call for a new Charter of Democracy, though welcome, looks difficult to realise when the two sides cannot even agree to sit together in parliamentary committees.

The imposition of emergency and governor’s rule in KP was a gross misstep by the federal government, and it has spoiled the chances of a negotiated settlement. But the opposition, too, has gained little from confrontation.

Unless both sides start to show some flexibility on key matters, make compromises and enter negotiations without preconditions, they risk further deepening this crisis of their own making.

If enough lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are willing to admit that matters have gone too far, there may yet be hope for parliament, and for Pakistani democracy. The question is, are they ready to do so?

Published in Dawn, October 30th, 2026

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan remained deeply hostile to journalism and its practitioners in 2025-26 despite a decline in documented violations against media workers, according to a new report issued by an Islamabad-based media watchdog.

“About 10 cases a month [against media personnel], their nationwide spread and severity in the period showed that fewer violations did not mean greater safety,” stated Freedom Network’s latest annual Impunity Report 2026, titled “From Violence to Lawfare: Process as Punishment for Journalists”.

Produced with technical assistance from International Media Support (IMS), the report was authored by journalist Adnan Rehmat and Freedom Network Executive Director Iqbal Khattak.

It finds that “impunity has evolved from a failure to punish violence into a broader system of coercion”.

Peca increasingly used to punish dissent, says Freedom Network report

The report was released on Thursday ahead of the International Day to End Impunity for Crimes against Journalists, observed worldwide, including in Pakistan, on Nov 2 each year.

“Despite the presence on the statute books of two laws to combat impunity for crimes against journalists, such a finding should be a matter of concern for those at the helm of affairs of the two safety commissions established under these laws,” Mr Khattak said.

Cases documented between October 2025 and August 2026 included one work-related killing, three attempted assassinations, 18 threats of murder or harm, 11 assaults, 13 legal actions and 32 threats of legal action.

Punjab recorded 49 cases, just over half the total, followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Islamabad and Balochistan. Digital and independent journalists were targeted most often. Victims or their families identified government authorities and officials as alleged instigators in nearly two-thirds of the cases.

The report identifies the controversial Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (Peca) and its increasing use against journalists by the National Cyber Crime Investigation Agency (NCCIA) to punish dissent as “central to this legal siege” of online journalism in the country.

‘Recurring pattern’

A detailed analysis of representative Peca-related cases against journalists reveals a recurring pattern in which allegations of defamation, false information, harassment or reputational harm are channelled through cybercrime procedures, including in cases involving reporting on public expenditure, corruption or official conduct.

Even without a confirmed FIR or conviction, the process itself becomes “punitive” through summonses, device scrutiny, travel, legal costs, detention, repeated hearings, and reputational harm, the report says.

It adds that relief is commonly limited to bail or procedural protection rather than final vindication.

The report also provides guidelines for journalists and other media practitioners facing Peca-related cases to help minimise the harmful effects of legal action.

It expresses concern over the lack of institutional safeguards for media workers despite the establishment of two high-powered safety commissions, one at the federal level and the other in Sindh.

“The federal journalist protection mechanism is effectively dysfunctional, while the Sindh Commission, although more visible, has limited reach and demonstrated protection impact outside Karachi,” it says.

Published in Dawn, October 30th, 2026

• Achakzai questions govt’s handling of Tehran diplomacy, Afghanistan ties
• Senate resolution seeks coordinated national action to curb population growth

ISLAMABAD: Lawmakers in the National Assembly and Senate on Thursday raised concerns over the political situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and alleged human rights violations, while both houses also discussed electoral reforms and the need to strengthen parliamentary institutions.

National Assembly Opposition Leader Mehmood Khan Achakzai criticised the government for failing to take parliament into confidence over recent diplomatic developments in Tehran.

“How can four people decide the future of the whole nation?” he asked, warning that such decisions could push the country towards “anarchy and civil war”.

Mr Achakzai also opposed the suspension of trade with Afghanistan, describing Afghans as traditional friends of Pakistan and criticising the country’s past policies towards its neighbour.

PTI Chairman Barrister Gohar Ali Khan said the parliamentary proceedings and the prevailing political situation in KP were creating a negative impression among the public. He also called for an end to hereditary politics in the country.

Rights concerns raised

Meanwhile, speaking on a point of order in the Senate, PTI parliamentary leader Barrister Syed Ali Zafar accused the government of undermining constitutional protections through the imposition of emergency and governor’s rule in KP.

He argued that fundamental human rights could not be suspended or compromised, regardless of the political situation. “There is one thing that cannot be broken, suspended or compromised: the fundamental human rights of the people of Pakistan,” he said.

Mr Zafar expressed concern over the detention of Noreen Niazi, sister of jailed PTI founder Imran Khan, claiming that she had suffered a heart attack and was hospitalised but her family was not being allowed to meet her.

Responding to the concerns, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Political Affairs Rana Sanaullah said Noreen Niazi had been provided medical treatment in Lahore and was in satisfactory condition.

On allegations that her family was being denied access, Mr Sanaullah assured the house that details would be sought and the matter addressed according to the circumstances.

He defended her detention, alleging that she had sought to create unrest by mobilising people for a protest march towards Islamabad.

Senate Opposition Leader Allama Raja Nasir Abbas also criticised the government’s actions in KP, alleging that the province had been “snatched from the people”.

He also questioned the imposition of emergency and governor’s rule in KP, arguing that democratic institutions could not function without respect for the law.

Population growth resolution

Separately, the Senate passed a resolution calling for urgent and coordinated national action to address the challenges posed by the country’s rapidly growing population.

The resolution, moved by PPP Vice President Senator Sherry Rehman, called for a comprehensive national response to population growth and its impact on public services and socioeconomic development.

Ms Rehman said Pakistan’s population was projected to reach approximately 390 million by 2050 at the current growth rate, placing unprecedented pressure on national resources.

Published in Dawn, October 30th, 2026

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s camp finished ahead of the opposition but remained well short of a majority, final results from general election showed on Friday, setting the stage for tough coalition talks or potentially another vote.

Netanyahu’s coalition of right-wing and far-right parties won 53 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, with his Likud party remaining the largest faction with 27 seats.

The opposition bloc, led by centrist Gadi Eisenkot, secured 48 seats.

The results from the Central Elections Committee also cemented the emergence as potential kingmakers of the Arab party groupings Raam and the Joint List, with the two winning a combined 19 seats.

The fragmented outcome sets the stage for difficult negotiations to form a government that could last weeks, with no single bloc able to reach the 61-seat threshold needed and the prospect of another election remaining if talks fail.

The final tally came after Netanyahu’s camp spent Thursday amplifying unproven allegations that Arab-Israeli groups received foreign funding to influence the vote, accusations rejected by both Arab-majority lists and Qatar.

Israel’s Shin Bet domestic security service said it was investigating suspected irregularities, but stressed the probe was not intended to “cast aspersions or place blame on an entire sector that went out to vote in a democratic and lawful manner”.

The electoral commission also sought to calm tensions, with its acting director general Dean Livne saying any suggestion of widespread issues was “entirely groundless”.

Political earthquake

The controversy centred on allegations that Raam received money from Qatar, the energy-rich Gulf powerbroker that has channels to Hamas, to finance vote-buying operations.

“The Raamgate scandal is a political earthquake. Israel’s elections have been stolen!” Netanyahu’s Likud party alleged on Thursday.

Raam leader Mansour Abbas denied any wrongdoing and welcomed an investigation, while the Joint List accused Netanyahu and his allies of conducting a “campaign of incitement” out of fear of Arab voters’ growing political influence.

Government officials have so far provided no evidence to back the allegations.

Opposition figures accused Netanyahu of attempting to undermine confidence in the results after failing to secure a governing majority.

“He is trying to challenge the election results,” left-wing candidate Yair Golan said.

Eisenkot said he was briefed by the Shin Bet and the election committee, adding it was “too early to understand what happened, and whether anything happened at all”.

But he continued: “It’s already clear that Likud and Netanyahu have embarked on a coordinated, organised campaign seeking to delegitimise the results of the election.”

Netanyahu himself has long been under the cloud of allegations related to Qatar after the arrests last year of two of his aides for allegedly receiving payments from the Gulf state.

Qatar called the latest accusations “ridiculous and dangerous”.

Kingmakers under pressure

Yousef Jabareen, head of the Joint List, told AFP that he is willing to cooperate with the opposition to bring down Netanyahu but without joining it in a government.

Netanyahu had tried during the voting to raise allegations of fraud, saying that Arab parties were caught with envelopes of cash, and Likud peddled the accusations throughout Thursday.

Police said they arrested three suspects but the election commission called it an isolated local case.

ISLAMABAD: A private think tank has found more fiscal faults than benefits of the much-discussed creation of new provinces, advising priority to stronger local governments instead of new provinces if public service delivery was actually intended.

In its latest market analysis release on Thursday, Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (Prime) highlighted the additional annual recurring cost of Rs47 billion to Rs57bn in case of creation of two more provinces — South Punjab, Bahawalpur and remaining Punjab — and up to Rs730bn if 30 divisional units were to upgrade to provincial status.

“Any proposal for creating new provinces should include a formal fiscal costing exercise before constitutional or legislative changes are pursued”, the think tank said, adding that the costing should estimate the recurring expenditure required for the governor, chief minister, provincial assembly, secretariat, high court and other core institutions, together with the likely NFC resource envelope of each proposed unit. This would make it possible to assess whether the expected administrative benefits justify the additional recurring burden,” it said.

If the number of provinces increases to six, South Punjab receives an illustrative allocation of Rs1tr under the existing NFC, while Bahawalpur receives Rs537bn. In case of 30 provinces, allocations differ considerably, ranging from Rs7201bn for Lahore and Rs691bn for Karachi to Rs46bn for Loralai and Rs50bn for Zhob. Thus 11 of the 30 proposed units receive less than Rs150bn per annum.

Think tank puts annual recurring bill at Rs47-57bn for two provinces and up to Rs730bn for 30

The estimated annual recurring cost of a new provincial government is Rs22.4bn under the low-cost scenario and Rs25.9bn under the high-cost scenario, therefore Rs47-56bn per annum for two and Rs610-730bn for 30 provinces.

Using a 10pc fiscal sustainability benchmark based on the low recurring-cost estimate, 16 of the 30 proposed provinces would remain at or below the threshold, while 14 exceed it. The burden is particularly high in the smallest units: the core provincial structure would absorb around 49pc of Loralai’s allocation, 45pc of Zhob’s and 37pc of Rakhshan’s even under the low-cost estimate.

Every proposed province with a population below 1.2 million would require more than one-third of its NFC allocation to finance the core provincial government structure.

The findings therefore show that the fiscal implications of restructuring depend strongly on the number and size of the provinces created. Limited restructuring involving relatively large units produces a much smaller recurring burden, whereas several smaller division-based provinces would face disproportionately high administrative costs relative to their expected NFC resources.

Therefore, at the fiscal level, creation of new provinces will put additional pressure on fiscal resources of smaller provinces, especially those with lower NFC allocations and constrained revenue generation capacity. A greater portion of their available resources would be consumed by ongoing government expenses, resulting in reduced fiscal room for other provincial spending, such as public service provision and developmental expenditure, the analysis showed.

Therefore, the think tank emphasised that provincial restructuring should be evaluated not only in political and administrative terms, but also through a clear fiscal framework.

Published in Dawn, October 30th, 2026

• Ex-health officials slam country’s ‘too little, too late’ disaster response; demand climate-proof hospitals, early warnings, heat action plans
• Study calls for climate change to be declared global health emergency
• Heat-related deaths rise 36pc since Paris accord; economic losses estimated at over $1tr

ISLAMABAD: Health and environmental experts in Pakistan have called for urgent measures to address growing climate-related health risks after a Lancet report warned that rising heat-related deaths, floods, droughts and economic losses are outpacing global efforts to combat climate change.

The 2026 Lancet Countdown report, launched at the British Library in London, called for climate change to be recognised as a “global health emergency”, warning that climate-related health risks continue to worsen a decade after the Paris Agreement.

The report found that average annual heat-related deaths worldwide have risen 36 per cent since the Paris Agreement. In 2023, heat was linked to a record 710,000 deaths, with more than 70pc attributed to human-caused climate change. Meanwhile, heat-related economic losses reached an estimated $1.07 trillion in 2025.

Former Punjab health minister Professor Dr Javed Akram told Dawn that the warning was particularly urgent for Pakistan, where the devastating 2022 floods displaced communities, damaged health care infrastructure, disrupted access to essential medicines and increased the risk of waterborne diseases and malnutrition.

“Extreme heat further threatens vulnerable populations, particularly children, older adults, outdoor workers and people living with chronic illnesses,” he said.

Mr Akram criticised Pakistan’s disaster management approach, saying policies had historically been reactive rather than proactive, with preparations beginning only after disasters strike.

“Pakistan must strengthen heat-health action plans, establish effective early-warning systems, climate-proof hospitals, improve disease surveillance, and expand access to safe water and sanitation,” he said.

He urged federal and provincial governments to allocate dedicated funding for climate-resilient health care and called on international partners to provide predictable, grant-based climate finance.

Former special assistant to the prime minister on health Dr Zafar Mirza also warned that climate change had become a growing public health emergency in Pakistan.

“Extreme heat, flash floods, cloud bursts and worsening air quality cause illness and death, while disrupting healthcare, contaminating water, undermining nutrition and deepening poverty and psychological distress,” he told Dawn.

Dr Mirza said Pakistan needed climate-resilient health facilities, stronger disease surveillance, early-warning systems and coordinated action across health, climate, water, energy and finance.

Dr Muhammad Irfan Khan, professor of environmental science and former dean at International Islamic University, expressed concern that Lancet Countdown’s launch statement did not mention Pakistan despite its exposure to climate-related disasters. “Pakistan’s experience should inform global priorities, research and investment,” he said, citing Germanwatch’s Climate Risk Index 2025, which ranked Pakistan as the country most affected by extreme weather in 2022.

He urged international institutions to give greater visibility to vulnerable countries and ensure affected communities help shape climate responses.

Published in Dawn, October 30th, 2026

• President says outreach focused on medical supplies, not peace talks
• Tehran confirms receiving vice president’s letter, no response yet
• US media claims correspondence sought to avert new strikes

TEHRAN: Iranian media reported on Thursday that Tehran had received a letter from US Vice President JD Vance but had not yet responded, amid efforts to revive peace talks between the countries, though President Donald Trump said the outreach was about helping the country get medical supplies.

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that “Iran has received the letter, but has not yet responded,” while the Fars news agency carried a similar account, citing “a source familiar with the matter.”

The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing US officials and people familiar with the matter, that Vance had sent the letter to Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei at Trump’s direction in a bid to revive peace negotiations and avert new US strikes.

The letter and subsequent contact between US and Iranian officials focused on a possible framework for negotiations rather than specific terms for a peace deal, the Journal reported.

When asked by reporters later on Wednesday if he directed Vance to reach out to Iran to restart peace negotiations, Trump said, “No”.

“What that is is they need help with medical supplies and various things. He asked me what I thought. I said, if you want to do that, that’s OK. Basically, it’s getting supplies in to help people that are not well,” Trump told reporters.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York and Vance’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the letter and Trump’s remark.

The reported correspondence comes as diplomatic efforts to end the war have yet to produce a lasting agreement.

On Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was discussing a plan with mediators, mainly Qatar and Pakistan, to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that normally carries about one-fifth of global oil consumption.

Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal Sunday to end the war, but a senior Iranian official said Doha had only put forward unacceptable ideas that did not amount to an offer.

Tehran insists that Washington meet seven conditions it has set for reopening the strait. The conditions include a ceasefire across the Middle East, the unfreezing of Iranian assets abroad, the lifting of sanctions on its oil sector and an end to the US naval blockade.

Tasnim reported that “any position that undermines this firm framework established by Iran is unacceptable”.

The war began Feb 28 with US-Israeli strikes on Iran that assassinated former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior military commanders. Iran retaliated with attacks on Israel and US assets in the region, while the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports to starve it of oil export revenue.

Iran has long blamed US sanctions for hindering civilian access to medical supplies.

Published in Dawn, October 30th, 2026

• CPPA seeks Rs2.56 per unit additional fuel cost adjustment to recover Rs33bn
• Industrial representatives insist fuel levies inflating generation costs

ISLAMABAD: The manufacturing sector and the power division on Thursday unanimously called for the removal or reduction of the petroleum levy on furnace oil and diesel used for power generation, stressing that it was resulting in about Rs10 per unit additional impact to electricity costs.

The demand emerged during a public hearing on the Rs2.56 per unit additional monthly fuel cost adjustment (FCA) sought by power companies to recover about Rs33 billion for electricity consumed in September.

The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) conducted the hearing on a request by the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) to allow distribution companies to charge the additional FCA in November bills. A government official said the proposed adjustment was the highest for comparable months in recent years.

Industrial representatives Amir Shaikh, Arif Bilwani, Tanveer Bari and Rehan Javed, representing various chambers of commerce and industry, said the government was charging substantial petroleum levies — about Rs76,000 per tonne on furnace oil and Rs80 per litre on diesel — which could otherwise be reduced to lower generation costs amid the energy crisis arising from the Iran conflict.

Representatives of entities under the power division confirmed that furnace oil- and diesel-based generation accounted for 3.6 per cent of total power generation in September because of the unavailability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and other cheaper sources.

Industrial representatives said removing the levies could reduce generation costs from around Rs62 per unit to Rs44-50 per unit.

They argued that the levy was also increasing the government’s subsidy burden, effectively shifting money from one pocket to another.

The representatives said the prime minister had previously removed certain charges to subsidise power tariffs, but the relief had since been discontinued. They also pointed out that continuation of the surplus incremental package was imposing an additional burden of around Rs11 per unit on grid consumers and demanded its immediate suspension.

Naveed Qaiser, chief financial officer of the Power Planning and Monitoring Company (PPMC), agreed that petroleum levies on diesel and furnace oil had a substantial impact on generation costs.

He said the power division had been fighting for their removal or reduction at relevant forums and urged business representatives to continue raising the issue with senior government officials.

Mr Qaiser said reducing electricity tariffs remained a government priority, particularly for industry, to improve competitiveness with regional economies.

He said these efforts had already helped reduce tariffs by around Rs10 per unit for consumers generally and up to Rs18 per unit for industry, achievements that should also be acknowledged.

CPPA’s Rehan Akhtar said the actual fuel cost in September stood at Rs10.022 per unit against the reference rate of Rs7.46, resulting in the request for an additional FCA of Rs2.56 per unit.

He said the total financial impact was estimated at Rs32.76bn, mainly because of changes in the generation fuel mix and higher costs of alternative fuels.

However, he maintained that the net increase in the FCA would not exceed Rs1.45 per unit, as the existing positive adjustment in October would expire and be replaced by the proposed Rs2.56 adjustment in November.

Nepra and industrial representatives also raised concerns over discrepancies in power generation data submitted by the CPPA and demanded greater transparency.

They questioned a previous adjustment of Rs16bn on account of LNG prices, arguing that timely reporting of those prices could have avoided a substantial portion of the proposed additional FCA.

Officials from Nepra’s Monitoring and Enforcement Division also questioned the authenticity and consistency of information supplied by government entities.

Nepra member Amina Ahmed acknowledged the concerns, saying the regulator was aware of the discrepancies but did not want to turn the proceedings into a “circus” by publicly taking up every inconsistency.

Industrial representatives also questioned coal procurement practices at the Port Qasim power plant, alleging that the producer was procuring coal through affiliated entities at prices significantly higher than those paid by other plants.

They demanded a comprehensive investigation, including by the National Accountability Bureau. Nepra assured participants that only prudent coal costs would be allowed and that the producer would have to bear the impact.

Government entities reported a 6.5pc increase in overall power demand in September, including a 6.7pc rise in industrial consumption.

Industry representatives maintained that the higher industrial consumption reflected a shift from captive power generation to the national grid rather than the impact of the incremental package.

Average fuel cost surged by almost 37.5pc year-on-year in September, mainly because expensive, heavily taxed fuels were used to compensate for reduced LNG supplies amid the regional conflict and increased reliance on imported coal.

According to CPPA data, high-speed diesel (HSD) accounted for 213 gigawatt-hours (GWh), or about 1.6pc of total grid supply, at a generation cost of Rs62.14 per unit. This compared with 80GWh generated at Rs54 per unit in August.

Furnace oil-based generation stood at 263GWh in September, down from 321GWh in August, while its generation cost declined to Rs44.86 per unit from around Rs46.

Its share of total generation remained close to 2pc.

Published in Dawn, October 30th, 2026

LAHORE: The Lahore High Court has held that merely uploading an appellate order to the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) Inland Revenue Information System (IRIS) does not constitute valid service under the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001.

An LHC division bench comprising Justice Mirza Viqas Rauf and Justice Anwaar Hussain decided three connected reference applications led by Tahir Mehmood.

The applications challenged three orders of the Appellate Tribunal Inland Revenue, which had dismissed the taxpayers’ appeals as time-barred on the ground that uploading the orders to IRIS constituted sufficient service.

In one case, the taxpayer argued that Covid-19 and quarantine following a foreign trip had prevented him from accessing the portal. In the other two cases, the taxpayers said they learned of the Commissioner (Appeals)’ orders only after receiving recovery notices in April 2026, months after the orders had been passed.

Justice Anwaar Hussain, who authored the judgement, held that Section 218(1)(d) of the ordinance recognises electronic service only when carried out in the prescribed manner.

He observed that Rule 74 of the Income Tax Rules limits an electronic addr­e­ss to a fax number or an email address and requi­res confirmation of transmission.

IRIS, by contrast, is an internal, web-based workflow system for tax administration, the judge noted, adding that placing an order in a taxpayer’s account does not establish its transmission to an electronic address as required under the rule.

The judge distinguished between accessibility and service, observing that an order may be accessible wi­­thout having been served in accordance with the law.

He further held that the limitation period could not begin from an event that the law did not recognise as its starting point.

Rejecting the department’s argument that Rule 74 could not restrict the parent provision, the jud­ge said the requirement of service in the “prescribed manner” was part of the ordinance itself.

The judge also dismissed the contention that taxpayers were required to routinely monitor IRIS.

The judge said the dep­artment could not dismiss the pandemic-related exp­lanation, as the corre­ct­n­ess of the tribunal’s conclusion involved a question of law that the high court was competent to examine.

Observing that technology was an instrument of statutory administration ra­­ther than an independent source of statutory au­­thority, the judge said mo­­d­ernisation could not disp­ense with legal safeguards.

The court referred to rulings of the Peshawar and Islamabad high courts and the Delhi High Court, as well as Articles 4 and 10A of the Constitution.

The bench set aside the impugned orders and dire­cted the tribunal to decide the appeals afresh on merit.

Published in Dawn, October 30th, 2026

US stock prices retreated on Thursday, with investors reassessing big tech’s massive AI spending spree as they digested high-profile earnings, crucial inflation data and the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

All three major US stock indexes were in negative territory, with the Nasdaq dragged sharply lower by tech and tech-related megacaps in the wake of Alphabet’s disappointing quarterly results released late Wednesday.

In contrast, the smallcap Russell 2000 advanced 0.8 per cent.

Semiconductor stocks were poised to snap their four-day winning streak, dropping 2.0pc as investors sought to distinguish between companies that can fund their lofty AI ambitions from those that burn through cash and borrow funds to realise their ambitions.

Alphabet was in the latter camp following its quarterly report released late on Wednesday. The Google parent’s revenue miss was compounded by its accelerated AI-related cash burn. Its shares slid 13.2pc.

“A risk-off day like this, with small caps outperforming, is a good sign that thus far the market’s interpretation of cracks in the AI story doesn’t mean cracks in every corner of the market,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky.

“There’s plenty of other places to go with your money outside of the AI trade that have pretty decent prospects.”

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve policymakers chose to hold US rates steady, acknowledging that while price pressures remain “elevated”, the central bank will decide on its next move as it “accumulates more information”.

A raft of economic data released on Thursday answered that call, with a first take on third-quarter GDP that showed the US economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the third quarter, while price growth continued to gain heat with a war-related oil supply crunch feeding into broader, systemic inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 315.36 points, or 0.59pc, to 52,163.07, the S&P 500 lost 48.73 points, or 0.63pc, to 7,695.25 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 441.15 points, or 1.66pc, to 26,108.35.

Among the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, communication services and tech were down the most, while healthcare led the gainers.

Third-quarter earnings season has crossed the halfway point, with 253 of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. Of those, 81pc have beaten analyst expectations, according to the most recent LSEG data.

Analysts now expect aggregate third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth of 31.0pc, year-on-year, per LSEG.

Caterpillar topped quarterly profit estimates but left its growth targets unchanged. The heavy equipment maker’s shares tumbled 9.5pc.

Eli Lilly jumped 6.3pc after the drugmaker lifted its revenue outlook on the strength of weight-loss drug sales.

Ford gained 2.9pc following the automaker’s third-quarter revenue beat.

Merck beat earnings expectations on the strength of its cancer drug Keytruda and its HPV vaccine Gardasil. The drugmaker’s shares advanced 4.4pc.

Software stocks were broadly weak. Fortinet and ServiceNow dropped more than 20pc each after their quarterly results.

Marvell Technology slumped 12.8pc after media reports said the company was in advanced talks to buy data-centre optics maker Lumentum Holdings. Lumentum shares rose 2.0pc.

Amazon’s shares were off 3.9pc ahead of its earnings report, expected after the closing bell.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.59-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 113 new highs and 155 new lows on the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq, 2,416 stocks rose and 2,221 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.09-to-1 ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 19 new 52-week highs and six new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 81 new highs and 131 new lows.

Former Afghanistan captain Rashid Khan became the first bowler to claim 200 wickets in men’s Twenty20 Internationals on Thursday, reaching the milestone during Afghanistan’s second T20 against Zimbabwe in Sharjah.

The leg-spinner brought up the landmark when he trapped Tadiwanashe Marumani lbw for two in the ninth over.

Rashid achieved the feat in his 120th T20 international, with the 28-year-old boasting an average of 13.96 and an economy rate of 6.13 in the format.

His record includes two five-wicket hauls, with best figures of 5-3.

The Afghan sits comfortably atop the list of leading wicket-takers in men’s T20 internationals with 200 wickets, 29 clear of England’s Adil Rashid in second place.

Rashid Khan became the first Afghanistan bowler to reach 200 ODI wickets during a match against Bangladesh in Abu Dhabi in October last year.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday affirmed that Pakistan and Turkiye would continue to push for dialogue and diplomacy while strengthening their defences under the Makkah Defence Agreement.

He made the remarks while addressing an event in Islamabad marking the 103rd national day of Turkiye, with which Pakistan enjoys strong bilateral ties and maintains multi-sectoral cooperation.

The premier said the pact, signed on Aug 7 between Pakistan, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia, marked an “important milestone” in cooperation between Islamabad and Ankara.

“It strengthens our collective deterrence and reinforces our shared commitment to regional peace and stability,” PM Shehbaz noted.

“While we strengthen our defences, we shall continue to champion dialogue, diplomacy, respect for international law and the peaceful settlement of disputes.”

The prime minister hailed Turkiye’s diplomatic support during Marka-i-Haq last May, when India initiated unilateral aggression against Pakistan, triggering a four-day conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

“Turkiye stood firmly by our side with unwavering commitment and dedication. This sincere act of solidarity was a profound source of comfort and strength for the people of Pakistan, a gesture that will forever remain etched in our hearts and our memories,” he emphasised.

Additionally, the premier observed that Islamabad and Ankara’s relationship had evolved into a “multifaceted strategic partnership”, spanning political dialogue, defence, trade, culture and people-to-people ties, among other areas.

He stressed that the economic partnership between Pakistan and Turkiye needs to match the heights of the political and strategic bond between both nations.

“In July this year, at the Pakistan-Turkiye business conference in Istanbul, I announced the establishment of the President Tayyip Erdogan Special Economic Zone in Karachi,” PM Shehbaz said.

“Now I invite Turkish businessmen to look at Pakistan with its young population, strategic location and growing economic opportunities. Let us translate the goodwill between our two peoples into joint ventures, shared prosperity and meaningful jobs for our young people.”

During his speech, the prime minister highlighted the longstanding, historic ties that the two countries shared, recalling that during the Khilafat Movement — a campaign to protect the Ottoman Empire after World War I — people donated whatever they could from the subcontinent, including money and jewellery, to support their “Turkish brethren”.

“A century ago, our forefathers sent their love across the seas. Generations later, that love returned to our doorsteps during our darkest times,” he added, referring to humanitarian aid from Turkiye during the 2005 earthquake and the devastating floods of 2010.

PM Shehbaz also highlighted that under Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s instructions, Turkiye established a modern hospital, a school and modern villages for the people of Muzaffargarh after the floods.

“The 100 years between the Khilafat Movement and that moment seemed to close into a single circle,” the premier said, noting that when a massive earthquake rocked Turkiye in February 2023, “the people of Pakistan grieved as if the rubble lay upon our own homes”.

“We stood with our Turkish brothers and sisters, in their hour of sorrow, just as they had stood with us.”

Earlier this week, Pakistan, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Iran participated in a quadrilateral meeting where Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called for “regional unity” and hoped that the presence of other Islamic powers would “further consolidate regional unity and cohesion”.

Earlier this month, both nations signed an agreement to enhance cooperation in combating terrorism, narcotics trafficking and organised crime and agreed to establish a joint working group to strengthen collaboration between their interior ministries.

The decisions were taken during a meeting between Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and his Turkish counterpart Mustafa Çiftçi in Istanbul.

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan rose to 95th place among the 139 economies of the world featured in the ‘Global Innovation Index 2026’ published by the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO), it emerged on Thursday.

Advancing in rank from 99th place in 2025, Pakistan also reclaimed its “overperformer” status for the fourth time, a status given to economies identified as performing above expectations for their level of economic development. It also held the status in 2022 and 2024.

The global index report showed that Pakistan performed better in innovation outputs than innovation inputs in 2026. This year, Pakistan ranked 121st in innovation inputs and 72nd in innovation outputs — both higher than last year.

“Innovation overperformance shows that innovation does not follow a straight line from income to results,” the report said.

“The 2026 overperformers show that economies can generate more innovation than expected for their level of development when they build on focused strengths.”

WIPO highlighted that Pakistan’s strengths were concentrated in the digital economy, particularly mobile app creation, ICT services exports, high-tech imports, and software spending. It added that the country’s “relatively strong” scientific production and university quality supported a developing digital economy.

In the 2026 index, Pakistan ranked 15th among the 36 lower middle-income group economies and eighth among the 11 economies in central and southern Asia. It did not rank among the top innovation clusters in any specific innovation pillar of the index (including ‘human capital and research’, ‘infrastructure’, etc).

Pakistan’s GII ranking (2020-2026) showed a rise over the past seven years, ranking 107th in 2020; 99th in 2021; 87th in 2022; 88th in 2023; 91st in 2024; and 99th in 2025.

Meanwhile, Switzerland, Sweden and the United States remained the world’s top three innovation economies, with Switzerland ranking first for a 16th consecutive year. The organisation noted, “In a period of major geopolitical and economic turbulence, the most striking feature about the top of the ranking is its stability.”

According to the report, the leading economies broadly remain the same as in 2025, with no new economy in the top 15 since last year, and Europe once more accounting for the largest share of the group with 14 economies out of 25 innovation leaders. Additionally, the Netherlands moved up to seventh place and Austria to 18th.

“The main signal at the innovation frontier this year is continuity, rather than the emergence of any single new entrant,” the report said.

Five Asian economies were also among the top 25: South Korea and Singapore in fourth and fifth place respectively; China remaining 10th — as the only middle-income economy among the innovation leaders — Japan at 12th and Hong Kong, China in 14th place.

The report highlighted that the presence of Asian economies was now an “established feature of the top ranks, rather than a development unique to this year”.

According to the report, the GII 2026 Innovation Tracker pointed to “continued but slower progress across the innovation cycle”. Most indicators advanced, with notable gains in scientific output, corporate research and development (R&D), battery costs and technology adoption; however, about three-quarters remained below the decade average.

Research effort nonetheless remained at a historic high, it pointed out, with global R&D intensity close to two per cent of GDP.

The WIPO report identified that the near-term environment was more demanding than the previous year: “Global growth of about 3.4pc in 2025 is expected to ease to around 3pc in 2026, held back by higher energy prices and elevated uncertainty, before recovering modestly in 2027.”

It highlighted that AI-related investment remained “the main engine on the upside”, with the largest hyper-scalers set to spend over $1 trillion on AI infrastructure across 2025 and 2026.

“This will be increasingly financed through debt and private credit, meaning a downward revision of expected AI returns could tighten financing conditions well beyond the sector,” it added.

The report noted that emerging economies, including Pakistan, could build on their standout strengths to improve their overall innovation performance.

ISLAMABAD: Despite a massive 90 per cent cut in subsidies and higher-than-targeted revenue collection, Pakistan’s fiscal and current account buffers weakened at the beginning of the current fiscal year (FY27) owing to an almost 37pc increase in interest payments coupled with greater development spending.

The “overall fiscal surplus narrowed to 0.8pc of GDP (Rs1.198 trillion), compared with 1.7pc of GDP (Rs2.124tr)” in the corresponding period of FY26, said the Ministry of Finance’s Monthly Economic Update & Outlook report issued on Thursday.

“Similarly, the primary surplus declined to 1.6pc of GDP (Rs2.3tr), from 2.3pc of GDP (Rs2.94tr) recorded in the same period last year,” it added in the report’s October edition.

The government, however, pledged to keep fiscal policy focused on preserving stability through stronger revenue mobilisation and prudent expenditure management.

The report said the overall fiscal operations began on a positive note in FY27 as tax revenues surpassed target. Net federal revenue amounted to Rs2.9123 trillion, exceeding federal expenditure of Rs2.124tr. This contributed to a federal fiscal surplus equivalent to 0.5pc.

The Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) tax collection posted 3.6pc growth during July-August. Total expenditure increased by 20.7pc, “driven primarily by a 69.5pc surge in development expenditure, significantly outpacing the 14.7pc growth in current expenditure”, the report said.

“The relatively moderate increase in current expenditure was largely attributable to an 8.1pc decline in non-interest expenditure, mainly reflecting a sharp 90pc reduction in subsidies. In contrast, mark-up payments increased by 36.6pc,” it highlighted.

While flagging the geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, elevated commodity prices and uncertainty around technology investment as principal downside risks, the government also expressed cautious optimism over continued economic recovery, drawing support from better crop output, selective manufacturing industries and improving external earnings.

“The recovery in FY2027 is expected to draw support from improving crop prospects, selected manufacturing industries, domestic construction activity and expanding external earnings,” the finance ministry said in its report.

It expressed hope that steady demand in Pakistan’s main markets – the United States, the United Kingdom and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – would support the outlook for goods and services exports.

FBR revenues grows 7pc in 1st quarter

During July-September FY27, the report said the FBR tax collection grew by 7pc to reach Rs3.086tr, exceeding the target by Rs33.2bn.

Both direct and indirect taxes posted positive growth, increasing by 5.5pc and 8.3pc, respectively. Within indirect taxes, sales tax recorded the strongest growth at 11.6pc, followed by federal excise duty at 3.6pc and customs duties at 0.5pc.

In its report, the finance ministry also supported the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) decision to increase the policy rate by 50 basis points to 12pc earlier this week despite higher interest burden on the fiscal account.

It said the decision was meant to address rising inflationary risks stemming from the intensifying Middle East conflict and persistently high global energy prices.

“The decision aims to anchor inflation expectations, contain second-round effects, and keep inflation within the target range while preserving macroeconomic stability and supporting sustainable economic growth”, it said.

According to the report, the current account deficit in the first quarter of the current fiscal year was reported at $874 million, almost 16pc higher than $755m in the comparable period last year.

The finance ministry boasted of the $3bn Eurobond issue in September as the “quarter’s significant development” in delivering stronger foreign inflows and improved access to international capital markets.

The report said portfolio investment consequently recorded net inflows of $2.9bn, compared with net outflows of $633.3m a year earlier. Foreign direct investment (FDI) also increased by about 20pc to $720m, “providing further support to the financial account”.

“Together, these developments helped deliver an overall balance of payments surplus of $3.1 billion, compared with a deficit of $274 million in the corresponding quarter last year,” the report underlined.

It added that by Oct 16, the SBP’s liquid reserves stood at $21.5bn and total liquid reserves at $26.8bn.

“The stronger reserve position and broader financing access enhance Pakistan’s capacity to meet external obligations and sustain economic activity despite fluctuations in global energy prices,” it said.

The finance ministry expected the stronger agricultural output to support food processing, rural incomes and trade, while machinery imports contribute to productive capacity as investment projects are implemented.

“Rising services exports and remittances provide a further source of foreign exchange and household income. The stronger reserve position and broader access to external financing are creating a more supportive environment,” the report stated.

The report projected the headline inflation to be in the range of 9.5pc to 10.5pc for Oct 2026 and linked the subsequent price trajectory to international energy prices, food supplies and base effects.

“Continued progress on tax administration, energy efficiency, and state-owned enterprise reform is expected to support a durable expansion while containing pressures on the external account,” it said.

Pakistan head coach Mike Hesson is banking on his experienced top order to deliver when it matters most as the hosts prepare to face Sri Lanka in Saturday’s One-day International (ODI) tri-series final at Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore, with the opening batters’ inconsistent form remaining a major concern.

Pakistan qualified for the final with three consecutive victories before suffering an eight-wicket defeat against Sri Lanka in their last league match, when they were dismissed for just 110. The hosts will need a substantial improvement from their leading batters to avoid a repeat against the Islanders, who chased down the target with more than 30 overs to spare.

Speaking to PCB Digital in a video released on Thursday, Hesson said Pakistan had secured their wins despite some key players failing to make significant contributions, and expressed hope that the final would bring out their best.

“It’s been a pretty good couple of weeks. We have played some decent cricket without being perfect. To get three wins in a row without contributions from a few of our key players is a good sign,” he said.

“I still don’t think we have played our best game yet. Hopefully, we are saving that for the final.”

The numbers underline the challenge facing Pakistan’s top order. Fakhar Zaman has managed just 31 runs in four innings, while former captain Babar Azam has scored 118 in the same number of outings. Saim Ayub, who opened alongside Fakhar in the first three matches before being released from the squad at his own request, scored 21 runs in three innings.

Fakhar made 16 against Sri Lanka in the opening match, fell for a first-ball duck against England and scored 10 in the second England fixture before managing only five against Sri Lanka on Tuesday. Babar began with 45 against Sri Lanka, followed it with 34 against England and then made 10 before scoring 29 in the latest defeat.

Saim scored seven, eight and six in his three appearances. He was subsequently released to return to domestic cricket and work on his batting form, with Sahibzada Farhan named as his replacement, while opener Maaz Sadaqat was also called up earlier.

Hesson, however, remains confident that Pakistan’s senior batters Fakhar and Babar can rise to the occasion, describing the final as an ideal opportunity for them to produce a match-winning performance.

“You are talking about two of the greatest players in Pakistan’s history in the top three. I expect big players to stand up in big games,” he said.

“The fact that we have been able to achieve the wins that we have without the top order performing as well as we know they are capable of is a good sign. A couple of our key players are searching for that match-winning performance and there’s no better place to do it than in a final.”

While the top order has struggled, Pakistan’s middle order has provided important contributions. Salman Ali Agha struck a commanding 107 off 90 balls in the opening victory over Sri Lanka, while Hasan Nawaz scored 79 against England. Arafat Minhas also made 59 in that match.

Shadab Khan’s unbeaten 113 against England in Lahore proved decisive, as he and Haris Rauf put together an unbroken 89-run stand for the last wicket to secure a remarkable one-wicket win.

Hesson singled out Salman’s achievements and praised Hasan’s development, particularly his growing ability to manage pressure in the middle order.

“Salman Ali Agha has got the most hundreds of any Pakistan player batting at number five or below in an ODI,” he said. “His performance is often underrated.”

He added that Hasan was learning to “control the chase, understand risk and manage it”, describing his progress as encouraging.

Pakistan’s bowling, led by captain Shaheen Shah Afridi, has also offered positives, with Hesson praising the left-arm pacer’s ability to take early wickets and acknowledging contributions from Naseem Shah, Haris Rauf and young Arafat Minhas.

Pakistan, who have won 12 of their 19 ODIs since Hesson took charge as white-ball head coach last year, will hope their collective strength is complemented by a decisive contribution from the top order when the trophy is at stake.

ISLAMABAD: The PTI on Thursday reaffirmed its support for Sohail Afridi, the ex-chief minister who was rendered nonfunctional after the imposition of governor’s rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, ruling out any move within the party to consider an alternative candidate for the office.

Afridi has not been seen since the Centre imposed governor’s rule and emergency in KP on Oct 11. The very next day, a federal minister confirmed that he and some of his cabinet members were in preventive custody.

In the notification issued by the party’s central secretariat for the “purpose of clarity and emphasis”, PTI Chairman Barrister Gohar Ali Khan said that Afridi “remains and shall continue” to serve as the KP chief minister with the “confidence and support” of party founder and ex-premier Imran Khan.

“All PTI members, office-bearers, parliamentarians and party functionaries are hereby directed not to convene or participate in any meeting, introduce any agenda, initiate or entertain any proposal, or encourage or engage in any discussion concerning the nomination, replacement or consideration for the office of chief minister,” the notification said.

“It is categorically reiterated that no one other than the founding chairman has the authority to nominate an alternative candidate or alter this decision in any manner whatsoever. His decisions in this regard are final and binding upon all party members,” it said.

In a post on X, Barrister Gohar said that all party members part of the KP Assembly were a “source of pride for us” and that they had stayed loyal to Imran, complied with every decision and remained steadfast.

“However, in view of the unnecessary speculation and discussions circulating on social media and certain TV channels regarding the chief minister, this notification has been issued to provide further clarification and reassure party workers and supporters that decisions within our party are made solely in accordance with the directives of Imran Khan sahib,” he said.

The development comes after several PTI members expressed dissatisfaction with the party leadership’s handling of the prevailing challenges, questioning its decisions and overreliance on Afridi.

Heated arguments were witnessed during a joint parliamentary party meeting on Tuesday that lasted over seven hours, with some questioning why the top leadership had handed so much authority to Afridi, who, they said, held no position within the party hierarchy.

Some criticised the PTI chairman and Secretary General Salman Akram Raja, questioning why the party leadership appeared to be functioning under Afridi.

They alleged that the top leadership had left everything to Afridi, who had become non-functional after the imposition of governor’s rule in KP, because of its interest in transfers, postings and financial matters in the province.