Serbia’s student-backed opposition has won a decisive victory in Sunday’s snap parliamentary election, according to preliminary projections, after Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat. The result, if confirmed, would end the Serbian Progressive Party’s (SNS) 14-year hold on power and give the protest movement a majority in the 250-seat National Assembly.

Vučić said his coalition had lost, estimating that the Student List would win between 135 and 140 seats, against about 105 for his political camp. A representative sample by CESID-IPSPS pollsters put the Student List on 138 seats and the SNS on 104. The results announced by Vučić were preliminary; the official count had not been completed when he made his statement.

The independent election-monitoring organisation CRTA put the Student List on 51.47 per cent of the vote and Vučić’s “United Serbia” coalition on 40.42 per cent in its preliminary estimate. Other parties were not projected to pass the threshold for parliamentary representation, apart from lists representing national minorities, which are subject to different rules. Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission has yet to confirm the final results.

The margin was far wider than the close contest suggested by pre-election polling. Surveys cited before the vote showed the student-backed list and Vučić’s coalition within a few percentage points of each other, with estimates varying between polling organisations. The transcript cited similar mixed projections, including polls that put the Student List ahead and one conducted by Sputnik Serbia that favoured Vučić’s bloc. The preliminary count has shifted the focus from whether the governing camp could retain its majority to how the new parliament will be formed.

Turnout was exceptionally high. CRTA estimated that 67.8 per cent of voters had participated by 7pm, while Ipsos and CESID put the figure at 67.6 per cent. The final turnout remains pending, but both estimates were well above the 58.77 per cent recorded in the December 2023 parliamentary election. CRTA’s election-day updates also documented reports of pressure on voters and irregularities at polling stations.

The Student List grew out of demonstrations that began after a concrete canopy collapsed at Novi Sad railway station in November 2024, killing 16 people. Public anger over the disaster and demands for accountability developed into a wider challenge to the government. Students organised protests and blockades, calling for action over alleged corruption and failures in the handling of the station’s renovation.

As EU Today reported before the election, the campaign grew from the protests into an electoral coalition that displaced traditional opposition parties as the central challenger to the SNS. A previous report on the protests and Serbia’s EU accession process traced how the Novi Sad disaster became a wider test of state accountability and democratic standards.

Vučić, who resigned as president during the campaign to head the ruling coalition’s list, has been central to Serbian politics since the SNS came to power in 2012. His political camp has maintained close relations with Moscow while continuing Serbia’s formal bid to join the European Union. The Student List brings together candidates from a range of civic and political backgrounds. Its electoral victory does not, by itself, settle the movement’s positions on foreign policy or Serbia’s future relations with Brussels, Moscow and Pristina.

The vote took place amid reports of intimidation, violence and procedural problems. CRTA observers said they recorded pressure on voters, election workers or observers at 29 per cent of the polling stations they monitored. They also reported ballot photographing, which can compromise vote secrecy, and filed a report over suspected vote-buying and “carousel” voting in Veternik. These are allegations and observer findings; they do not establish that the overall result was invalid.

The election campaign had already drawn scrutiny over the conditions facing the opposition. In its pre-election assessment, CRTA cited pressure on voters, use of public resources and a blurred boundary between the state and the ruling list. Those findings concern the campaign environment; election-day reports concern specific incidents at polling stations.

Vučić’s concession reduces the likelihood of an immediate dispute over which bloc won, but the final count and formal allocation of seats remain necessary. CRTA’s estimate and the projections cited by Vučić both point to the Student List clearing the 126 seats required for a majority. The formation of a government will depend on the certified results and the parliamentary process.

The Student List must now turn a broad protest coalition into a governing administration. Its candidates campaigned under a common banner, but the movement includes participants with differing views and priorities. It will have to agree on a cabinet and determine how quickly it can pursue commitments on accountability, public institutions and the economy.

The result leaves the SNS facing a new role after more than a decade in government. A movement that began after a fatal infrastructure collapse is now on course to take power through parliament. If the preliminary projections hold, the transition will be the clearest test yet of whether Serbia’s student-led opposition can convert mass mobilisation into a stable government.