On October 25, an election list formed after two years of student-led protests in Serbia toppled Aleksandar Vučić and the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). The announcement was met with street celebrations that continued throughout the night, recognizing the outcome as a chance to break with 12 years of the former president’s anti-people policies. 

Election turnout surged to almost 70% of registered voters. The Student List secured roughly 53% of the vote and the SNS came in second with close to 39%. The two options are set to be the only forces in parliament except for minority representatives.

“These results have shown that a genuinely homegrown – even if heterogeneous – movement can articulate social discontent with SNS rule, provided it makes a decisive break with the baggage of the pro-Western opposition,” the Party of the Radical Left (PRL) wrote in a reaction on Monday.

The Students List ran on a platform titled “Serbia or the Mafia,” consisting of anti-corruption promises and plans to tackle the political establishment’s capture of the media sector. It also included a call for more transparency in public procurement and recruitment in the public sector. The platform promised to limit import monopolies, lower drug prices, and make healthcare more accessible.

From the Novi Sad canopy collapse to the ballots

Sunday’s results were made possible by months of demonstrations and public assemblies triggered by the canopy collapse in Novi Sad in November 2024. Sixteen people died in the event. In the aftermath, students across the country threw their energy into a campaign demanding accountability for the tragedy. 

From the beginning, protesters insisted the Novi Sad disaster was a consequence of the SNS’s way of doing politics, marked by widespread corruption, nepotism, and disregard for the public interest. During his tenure as prime minister and president, Vučić attempted to cast himself as a supporter of multilateralism and a political figure critical of the West, yet his actions exposed this as a more rhetorical than anything else.

These actions included supporting extractive deals with British-Australian mining company Rio Tinto – which the European Union included on its strategic projects list despite risks posed to communities in Jadar and mass mobilizations against the project – as well as the launch of a drone factory in cooperation with Israeli arms producer Elbit Systems. In fact, despite the former SNS leader’s efforts to present him as neutral, Serbia’s involvement in arms trade to Israel has been such to warrant notes of particular concern by UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese.

Locally, Vučić’s rule was marked by violent crackdowns on activists and campaigns, from the most recent student campaigns to Palestine solidarity. There was no substantial reaction to these reports from other European countries or the EU.

On the other hand, while very heterogeneous in character, the student movement aligned itself clearly against the Gaza genocide. Some local groups made solidarity with Palestine a central issue in their mobilizations. They also mobilized against projects associated to US interests, including the redevelopment of the former General Staff complex – a Belgrade landmark damaged in the 1999 NATO bombardment of the city – into a luxury hotel by Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of US President Donald Trump. This project was also brokered while the SNS was in power.

Progressives within Student List face difficult task ahead

The student campaign grew in significance through decentralized plenums and consultations across the country. This approach was not abandoned even during the formation of election lists – leading to a roster of new candidates, previously largely unknown to the public. University staff and other education workers who had supported the mobilization from the early days figured prominently on this list.

The success of the Student List represents an extraordinary achievement, especially considering the movement faced obstructions at every turn. These included police violence and institutional intimidation over the past two years, as well as schedule provisions that jeopardized voting rights in the diaspora. 

“The progressive elements within the Student List and the movement now face a difficult task: to resist the forces of the establishment within their own ranks,” the PRL emphasized after the election.

Earlier on, the party and other progressive voices expressed “critical support” for the Student List, recognizing the elements of social justice incorporated in its platform – but also noting aspects belonging to a technocratic vision of governance. 

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“When it comes to the published program, the measures set out in the ‘Serbia or the Mafia‘ plan are not enough to eradicate the structural injustice that has taken root in Serbia over thirty years of privatization, ‘structural adjustment’ to the Euro-Atlantic regime, and the weakening of public institutions – and their systematic incapacitation from carrying out their mandated functions and protecting the public interest against the arbitrary power of capital,” the PRL stated in September.

Despite such reservations, the hope embedded in the movement surrounding the Student List is clear. The PRL observed: “Beyond the mass politicization of students and the raising of awareness on many key social issues – and despite pressure from ‘opposition’ politicians who would rather keep all these topics quiet […] we consider the following to be progressive developments: the construction of a directly democratic movement that antagonizes both the government and the parliamentary opposition in practice […] open communication and cooperation with trade unions, which gave rise to the first mass protest-based May Day commemoration in many years […] and cooperation with informal labor and professional collectives, which gave rise to a new organization – the Social Front.”

Serbia’s student-backed opposition has won a decisive victory in Sunday’s snap parliamentary election, according to preliminary projections, after Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat. The result, if confirmed, would end the Serbian Progressive Party’s (SNS) 14-year hold on power and give the protest movement a majority in the 250-seat National Assembly.

Vučić said his coalition had lost, estimating that the Student List would win between 135 and 140 seats, against about 105 for his political camp. A representative sample by CESID-IPSPS pollsters put the Student List on 138 seats and the SNS on 104. The results announced by Vučić were preliminary; the official count had not been completed when he made his statement.

The independent election-monitoring organisation CRTA put the Student List on 51.47 per cent of the vote and Vučić’s “United Serbia” coalition on 40.42 per cent in its preliminary estimate. Other parties were not projected to pass the threshold for parliamentary representation, apart from lists representing national minorities, which are subject to different rules. Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission has yet to confirm the final results.

The margin was far wider than the close contest suggested by pre-election polling. Surveys cited before the vote showed the student-backed list and Vučić’s coalition within a few percentage points of each other, with estimates varying between polling organisations. The transcript cited similar mixed projections, including polls that put the Student List ahead and one conducted by Sputnik Serbia that favoured Vučić’s bloc. The preliminary count has shifted the focus from whether the governing camp could retain its majority to how the new parliament will be formed.

Turnout was exceptionally high. CRTA estimated that 67.8 per cent of voters had participated by 7pm, while Ipsos and CESID put the figure at 67.6 per cent. The final turnout remains pending, but both estimates were well above the 58.77 per cent recorded in the December 2023 parliamentary election. CRTA’s election-day updates also documented reports of pressure on voters and irregularities at polling stations.

The Student List grew out of demonstrations that began after a concrete canopy collapsed at Novi Sad railway station in November 2024, killing 16 people. Public anger over the disaster and demands for accountability developed into a wider challenge to the government. Students organised protests and blockades, calling for action over alleged corruption and failures in the handling of the station’s renovation.

As EU Today reported before the election, the campaign grew from the protests into an electoral coalition that displaced traditional opposition parties as the central challenger to the SNS. A previous report on the protests and Serbia’s EU accession process traced how the Novi Sad disaster became a wider test of state accountability and democratic standards.

Vučić, who resigned as president during the campaign to head the ruling coalition’s list, has been central to Serbian politics since the SNS came to power in 2012. His political camp has maintained close relations with Moscow while continuing Serbia’s formal bid to join the European Union. The Student List brings together candidates from a range of civic and political backgrounds. Its electoral victory does not, by itself, settle the movement’s positions on foreign policy or Serbia’s future relations with Brussels, Moscow and Pristina.

The vote took place amid reports of intimidation, violence and procedural problems. CRTA observers said they recorded pressure on voters, election workers or observers at 29 per cent of the polling stations they monitored. They also reported ballot photographing, which can compromise vote secrecy, and filed a report over suspected vote-buying and “carousel” voting in Veternik. These are allegations and observer findings; they do not establish that the overall result was invalid.

The election campaign had already drawn scrutiny over the conditions facing the opposition. In its pre-election assessment, CRTA cited pressure on voters, use of public resources and a blurred boundary between the state and the ruling list. Those findings concern the campaign environment; election-day reports concern specific incidents at polling stations.

Vučić’s concession reduces the likelihood of an immediate dispute over which bloc won, but the final count and formal allocation of seats remain necessary. CRTA’s estimate and the projections cited by Vučić both point to the Student List clearing the 126 seats required for a majority. The formation of a government will depend on the certified results and the parliamentary process.

The Student List must now turn a broad protest coalition into a governing administration. Its candidates campaigned under a common banner, but the movement includes participants with differing views and priorities. It will have to agree on a cabinet and determine how quickly it can pursue commitments on accountability, public institutions and the economy.

The result leaves the SNS facing a new role after more than a decade in government. A movement that began after a fatal infrastructure collapse is now on course to take power through parliament. If the preliminary projections hold, the transition will be the clearest test yet of whether Serbia’s student-led opposition can convert mass mobilisation into a stable government.