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The Geopolitical Balance in the Red Sea: The UAE Being Displaced by New Players

The persistence of current geopolitical alignments, the attention of Eastern actors to the region, the strengthening of Sanaa’s position in the Red Sea, and the expansion of regional opposition to the UAE’s role will diminish Abu Dhabi’s role in the region. UAE approach For the past ten years, the Southern Red Sea has been a […]
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Ukrainian Soldiers, Potential Mercenaries: Have Gun, Will Travel!

Who has thought about what happens to an army when the SMO ends—but the warriors remain? Ukraine is already providing an early glimpse of what may become a much larger post-war phenomenon: highly trained combat personnel, particularly special-forces and other specialists, carrying their battlefield skills beyond the borders of the countries, in which they acquired […]
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The War Is Spreading: What the Houthi Front Means for the Region

Amid the ongoing US–Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the emergence of a Saudi-Houthi confrontation has added a new layer of complexity to the Middle Eastern conflict, with the potential to widen and prolong the war while drawing additional regional actors into an increasingly broader confrontation. The Saudi-Houthi conflict is not […]
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Iran: Not a War, a Military Conflict? — Anything BUT Small Potatoes!

Call it a war, a military conflict, an intervention or something else entirely different—the terminology does little to change the human cost. People are dying, and the fighting has the potential to expand into a far larger regional conflagration. Call it whatever you want—just don’t call it small! The Trump administration insists the fighting with […]
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Five Things the Headlines Might Have Missed About the Saudi-Houthi Escalation

The escalation of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis marks the collapse of the old regional security system, in which traditional U.S. guarantees are losing their effectiveness, and real influence is shifting to actors capable of adapting to the new rules of the “gray zone” and informal diplomacy. As global media focuses on […]
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Pakistan’s Saudi Commitment Must Not Become a Gateway to War

Pakistan should honor its defense commitments to Saudi Arabia through strictly defensive cooperation and protection of maritime commerce, while avoiding offensive military action against the Houthis that could drag Islamabad into a wider Middle Eastern conflict, alienate Iran, and deepen its domestic and strategic vulnerabilities. The Makkah Joint Defense Agreement between Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi […]
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Trump’s Dream of Ending the War: The Gap Between White House Calculations and Battlefield Realities

Donald Trump has set a political deadline for ending the war with Iran: immediately after the US midterm elections. On September 9, he linked that prediction to allegations that Tehran was trying to influence the vote. But what will change on the battlefield or at the negotiating table after the election that cannot change before […]
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A Celebration Turned Into a Nightmare

What were supposed to be moments of immense joy turned out to be the dance of death, brought by the harbingers of war and suffering! On September 1, 2026, in the coastal town of Kuhestak (Sirik County) in the Hormozgan province of southern Iran, a large gathering was underway to celebrate the wedding of a […]
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Then They Came for the Ostriches

J.B. MacKinnon files a remarkable dispatch from among the members of the so-called Ostrich Army, who convened last fall in British Columbia to protest the planned culling of 300 or so birds following an H5N1 outbreak. The plight of the birds and the various claims made in their defense—that their antibodies could yield a cure for bird flu or COVID-19, for instance—are intriguing enough on their own. But it’s MacKinnon’s study of the Ostrich Army itself that helps this story take flight (even if the subjects at its center cannot). As helicopters pass overhead and a suspected kill pen mysteriously catches fire, suspicion mounts among the troops, and interpretations diverge. A genuinely surprising portrait of a loose, wayward movement, delivered with peak dramatic tension.

This was the Ostrich Army way: every event called for interpretation, an attempt to see through to hidden endgames. “One thing with black magic,” one camper would later say to me, “is they tell you what they’re going to do before they do it.” And so, at first light, when firefighters had won the day and the smoke cleared to reveal the ostrich flock still standing, the sight didn’t lead to any reconsideration of the night’s theories of clandestine slaughter. The Army simply moved on, hoping to make better sense of the next move, or the one after that. The birds really could die this day.

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Trump Wants to RENAME Everything: How about “The Trump Quagmire”?

As American troops face renewed danger in the Middle East, with Iran striking U.S. positions across the region, President Donald Trump is busy contemplating something rather more personal: renaming the Strait of Hormuz the “Trump Strait.” Perhaps “The Trump Quagmire” would be more appropriate—not as a name for a body of water, but for a […]
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The Houthis of Yemen bring Riyadh to its knees, traumatize Trump, and mortgage Suez

Even as Americans commemorate the pain of the September 11 attacks, at the same time, the Houthis of Yemen, under coordination along the “axis of resistance,” are taking absolute control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the entire Yemeni coast of the Red Sea. On Friday, September 11, 18 hours of warfare were enough to […]
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The Mecca Pact Turned Up Short: Escalation in Yemen

Having provoked a new round of conflict with the Yemeni Houthis, Saudi Arabia has landed itself in a dire situation. Despite the seriousness of the situation, the US and its allies in the “Islamic NATO” have so far taken up the role of outside observers. Essence of the Conflict The Shi’a “Ansar Allah” movement (the […]
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From Prediction to Resilience: Rethinking National Security in the 21st Century

In an increasingly unpredictable and multidimensional strategic environment, states can no longer rely solely on anticipating future crises; they must complement strategic foresight with national resilience capable of absorbing and withstanding crises they fail to predict. The Erosion of Strategic Predictability Technological advancement, especially in warfare and security, has made certainty an illusion. For much […]
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Is the Noose Tightening on Iran?

The Western takeover of Syria, the weakening of Hezbollah, and now the capitulation of Hamas signal that Western/American/Israeli penetration of Iranian outer defenses is essentially complete. The only remaining coherent and unassailed bastion outside of Iran is found among the Houthi. There remains Iran itself, which has weathered six months of American and Israeli aggression. […]
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Lebanon in the Grip: Stalemate at the Negotiating Table and Sovereignty Under Siege

In 2026, Lebanon finds itself at a historic crossroads. Fighting rages in the south, while political instability grips the north. The once “Switzerland of the Middle East” is enduring its most severe crisis since the 1975 civil war. Since the start of Israel’s large‑scale military offensive against Lebanon on March 2, about 3,700 people have […]
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Field developments of Sana’a approach in Yemen

Even with the full-scale involvement of Saudi Arabia and its regional allies in the conflict against Ansar Allah, the fighting could develop into a protracted war of attrition. Any large-scale escalation could also trigger a chain of reactions that would be difficult to contain. Introduction In June and July 2026, conflict between the Aden and […]
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Oil prices jump more than 2% after US and Iran trade strikes

Oil prices rose more than 2% Monday after the United States attacked an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz and drew retaliation from Tehran, as the six-month-old conflict between the two countries showed no signs of easing. Brent crude futures climbed $2.21, or 2.51%, to $90.31 a barrel as of 0436 GMT. U.S. West ... Read more

The post Oil prices jump more than 2% after US and Iran trade strikes appeared first on BOL News.

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Days Disrupted

The war in Iran began five months ago. Headline news about the conflict tends to focus on when and how it might end. In the meantime, the impacts of the conflict are felt worldwide—by drivers, farmers, business owners, and families. The Associated Press shares the stories of seven people suffering because of the war. Among them is Edgar Funelas, a jeepney driver in the Philippines who lives with his ten-year-old daughter:

He uses laundry soap—harsher, but cheaper—to wash his body and his clothes in the same motion, stretching what little money he has. Even before the war in Iran, he was living on the margins. A fire took their home and their belongings, forcing them to move into the brightly colored minibus he drove.

He’d hoped to be able to rent a room by now. Then diesel prices surged, and he could no longer afford the fuel to run his jeepney.

He hasn’t earned a single peso in days. There will be no breakfast. Hunger gnaws, but it’s the small rituals of privacy that he misses most: to be able to wash out of sight, to sleep behind walls, to keep his desperation from being laid bare.

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Why an insurgency in Mali matters in Moscow

A coup is underway in Mali, though it has not brought down the governing junta just yet. The country’s military leader, General Assimi Goïta has, after days in hiding, appeared in public to claim, unconvincingly, that the “situation is under control.” But rebel forces — an alliance of Al-Qaeda affiliates and Tuareg separatists — have taken over provincial cities and are calling for a blockade of the capital Bamako. Mali’s military junta hangs on by a thread, in a familiar regional story of violence, civilian suffering and international intrigue.

On April 25, coordinated attacks across Mali exposed the junta’s fragile hold over the country. Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), the al-Qaeda affiliate that has driven insurgency across the region for over a decade, joined forces for the first time with Tuareg separatist groups — who have been fighting the central government for even longer — to simultaneously strike cities hundreds of miles apart, including the capital Bamako, Gao, Kidal, Sévaré, and the garrison town of Kati. A suicide car bomber drove into the residence of defence minister General Sadio Camara, killing him along with his wife, two grandchildren, and several civilians. Camara was one of the most influential figures in Mali's ruling junta and had been widely seen as a possible future leader of the country. He was also the key architect of Mali's military alliance with Russia. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, which together form the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), have all in recent years realigned away from France, the former colonial power in the region, and towards Russia.

Russian mercenaries, in the form of the Wagner Group and more recently the Africa Corps, have backed military juntas in the Sahel, after coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger led to the withdrawal of French troops from France’s former colonies. But during these latest rebel strikes, it was Russian fighters that were chased out of the northern city of Kidal to the sound of jeers. Africa Corps, the Kremlin-controlled paramilitary group, described the insurgent attacks as a "coup attempt" backed by "Western intelligence services." RT amplified these claims, accusing France and the West of orchestrating the violence, even as it claimed Russian fighters successfully repelled rebels. In 2024, Ukraine’s military agency said it had provided information to help Tuareg rebels ambush and rout a Wagner convoy, killing dozens of Russian mercenaries. Both Mali and Niger have cut diplomatic ties with Kyiv. Burkina Faso has described Kyiv as a destabilizing force in the region, making the Sahel effectively a front in Russia’s war with Ukraine. 

The Kremlin’s combination of misinformation and mercenaries helped exploit growing anti-Western sentiments in the Sahel to give Russia a propaganda win in the region. Former colonial powers such as France didn’t help themselves, as can be seen even now in Madagascar, the latest nation to expel a French diplomat and accuse Paris of fomenting unrest. But the success of Russian propaganda hasn’t been matched on the ground. As Mali struggles to contain a rebel alliance that has fresh impetus and energy, Moscow’s control is weakening and the effectiveness of its military support is under question. Already, with Russian weapons in short supply because of war with Ukraine, it is China that the Malian junta turns to for arms. China’s strategic efforts in the Sahel have been similar to its efforts in the rest of the African continent – a focus on securing infrastructure contracts as part of the Belt and Road Initiative and securing access to mineral resources. But rebel attacks in the Sahel are bad for Chinese business. In February, the Chinese embassy in Niamey, the capital of Niger, warned Chinese companies to take their workers out of the firing line as rebels increasingly targeted Chinese infrastructure projects, including a $4.5 billion oil pipeline from Niger to Benin.

In 2024, the United States was forced to leave neighboring Niger after a coup, to withdraw from a $100 million base. It seemed the U.S. was losing ground to both Russia and China in the Sahel. Earlier this year, though, as security concerns in the Sahel escalated sharply, the U.S. adjusted its approach, choosing to deal pragmatically with military juntas. By late February, the U.S. lifted sanctions on top Malian officials, including General Camara, the recently slain defence minister. It may see closer cooperation with Sahel countries as essential to its security interests and a way to undercut Chinese access to Sahelian resources.

The three Sahel states, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, have turned away from France and Europe and towards Russia, while increasingly flirting with the U.S. and reliant on Chinese weapons. The result has been disaster. All three Sahel states are ranked in the top 5 for countries impacted by terrorism. And the humanitarian toll has been severe. Millions of people face internal displacement across the region and cuts in aid programmes mean many millions, especially children, also face acute hunger. But, as the great powers circle the region, jockeying for geopolitical gain, the talk remains about the logistics of propping up failing juntas, providing military solutions to human crises, and maintaining power rather than confronting problems.

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – all led by military authorities that came to power in a coup – have also isolated themselves from the rest of their neighbors by withdrawing from the West African regional bloc, Ecowas. Meanwhile, they sell their model as an alternative to Western-style democracy, a narrative that Russian propaganda networks have been all too eager to promote. But the strength of the insurgency against Mali’s government, and Russia’s apparent inability to protect it, sends a different message to the rest of the African continent.

The post Why an insurgency in Mali matters in Moscow appeared first on Coda Story.

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