Kevin M. Warsh, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said an “information-rich” period before the central bank’s gathering in December will help officials determine next steps for policy.

© Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters

The Federal Reserve kept its key rate unchanged Wednesday at about 3.9% despite stubbornly high inflation, while providing little hint about the central bank's next moves.

The central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, just days before the midterm elections.

© Al Drago for The New York Times

The new government, led by Andy Burnham, will deliver its first budget on Wednesday, a plan expected to tread between wide ambition and narrow financial limits.

© Pool photo by Carlos Jasso

Higher mortgage rates and slowing residential construction are again giving landlords the upper hand.

© Grant Hindsley for The New York Times

As next week’s all but certain rate rise looms, there is one thing we can all agree on: the end of war in the Middle East can’t come soon enough

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Jim Chalmers is blaming the latest shocking inflation figures on the worsening Middle East conflict, and he has a point.

The trouble is, voters aren’t buying what the treasurer is selling.

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© Photograph: Lukas Coch/Reuters

© Photograph: Lukas Coch/Reuters

© Photograph: Lukas Coch/Reuters

CPI release comes ahead of Reserve Bank decision next week as the Middle East conflict intensifies the cost-of-living crisis

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Australia’s headline inflation rate has accelerated to 4.3%, with a key gauge that strips out volatile prices also elevated, sharpening expectations of another interest rate rise next week.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred measure of consumer prices, called underlying inflation, came in at an annual 3.6% to September.

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© Photograph: James Gourley/Getty Images

© Photograph: James Gourley/Getty Images

© Photograph: James Gourley/Getty Images

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Online hate is spilling into the real world, AFP warns

AFP Commissioner Krissy Barrett began her late-night appearance at the Senate estimates hearing noting “a heaviness that hangs across Australia” after the alleged attack on independent MP Helen Haines.

Lone actors are being motivated by a convergence of personal grievances, mental health vulnerabilities and ideological concerns …

What helped keep us safe in recent times, such as our geography, analogue systems and far away criminals, has been impacted by fully integrated technology, social media and artificial intelligence.

We hear about the devastating impacts of racism from communities every day. But many experiences go unreported or uncounted, and our systems often do not capture the full picture.

This is not about collecting more data to prove racism exists. We already know it does. It is about making inequality visible, holding institutions to account and giving communities greater agency over their data to drive real change.

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© Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

© Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

© Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

The Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting will be the fourth of Chairman Kevin Warsh's tenure, which has been marked by questions regarding his independence from President Donald Trump, who appointed him earlier this year.

Inflation is moving in the wrong direction and the labor market remains stable, a combination that bolsters the case for higher interest rates.

© Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters

Inflation is moving in the wrong direction and the labor market remains stable, a combination that bolsters the case for higher interest rates.

© Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters

Ahead of the midterms, Natasha Sarin and Catherine Rampell unpack the state of the economy — and how much responsibility the president bears for it.

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When MSCI floated the idea of downgrading Indonesia to a Standalone Market, anxiety quickly swept through Jakarta’s financial community. Predictably, alarming headlines immediately pointed to foreign capital flight, stock prices dropped and local regulators quickly moved to calm jittery investors. Yet, treating this stock market tremor as a proxy for Indonesia’s overall economic health represents […]

The post Don’t mistake Indonesia’s MSCI scare for economic weakness appeared first on Asia Times.

The European Central Bank says artificial intelligence investment, changing energy consumption and increased government spending have helped the eurozone withstand this year’s energy crisis, although economists warn that several sources of growth may prove temporary.

The eurozone economy has proved more resilient to the energy price shock of 2026 than economists initially expected, supported by increased investment in artificial intelligence, reduced dependence on fossil fuels and higher government expenditure, according to an assessment published by the European Central Bank on Wednesday, 21 October.

ECB economists Óscar Arce, Gerrit Koester and Beatrice Pierluigi found that structural changes in European energy consumption have reduced the economic consequences of rising oil and gas prices. Stronger international demand for technology equipment and additional public spending, particularly in Germany, have also supported growth.

The findings come as the ECB faces renewed inflationary pressure following disruption to global energy markets caused by the conflict involving Iran, raising questions about the outlook for interest rates and economic activity.

Eurozone growth withstands energy shock

In their assessment of the eurozone’s economic resilience, ECB economists reported that economic output continued to expand despite the sharp increase in energy prices earlier this year.

Excluding Ireland, where economic statistics are frequently affected by the activities of multinational companies, real eurozone GDP in the second quarter was 0.6 per cent above its level at the end of 2025.

The ECB also identified quarterly growth of approximately 0.3 per cent over the preceding four quarters, excluding Irish figures.

These results exceeded earlier expectations that the disruption to energy markets would have a greater impact on European manufacturing, consumer spending and business investment.

Nevertheless, the eurozone’s rate of expansion remains modest compared with its longer-term historical performance.

The ECB’s findings suggest that the economy has become better able to absorb international disruptions without experiencing the immediate contractions that might previously have followed comparable energy price increases.

Reduced reliance on imported oil and gas

One of the most significant structural changes concerns energy consumption.

According to the ECB, the eurozone economy is now approximately half as dependent on oil as it was during the early 1990s, measured against economic output.

Greater energy efficiency, the expansion of services and investment in alternative electricity generation have progressively reduced the amount of fossil fuel required to produce economic activity.

The growth of renewable energy has also altered the relationship between natural gas prices and electricity costs.

In Spain, the proportion of hours during which gas-fired power stations determined wholesale electricity prices fell from approximately 80 per cent in 2020 to just over 20 per cent during the first nine months of 2026.

France recorded a similar decline, from approximately 60 per cent to around 20 per cent, supported by its extensive nuclear generating capacity.

Consequently, increases in international gas prices are having a smaller effect on electricity markets in countries with substantial renewable or nuclear generation.

The ECB cautioned, however, that European economies remain exposed to global energy disruptions, particularly through industrial activity and international supply chains.

Artificial intelligence provides unexpected support

The international expansion of artificial intelligence has generated an additional source of demand for European manufacturers and technology companies.

Investment in computing infrastructure, digital services and specialised equipment has increased demand for products supplied by European businesses.

According to the ECB, global trade has performed considerably better than expected at the end of 2025.

The latest projections indicate international trade growth of approximately 4.7 per cent in 2026, compared with the 2 per cent forecast in December.

AI-related investment accounts for part of that improvement.

European manufacturers producing specialised machinery and technology equipment have benefited from increased export orders, while domestic investment in technology has supported economic activity.

However, the ECB found that the effects vary considerably between sectors.

Technology-equipment manufacturers recorded comparatively strong growth in output, employment and new orders.

Software companies performed better in output terms, but the improvement was less evident in employment and new business.

This uneven performance suggests that the economic benefits of the AI investment cycle are concentrated in particular industries.

German spending strengthens European demand

Fiscal policy has provided another source of support.

The ECB estimates that the expansionary fiscal stance in the eurozone has increased to approximately 0.5 percentage points of GDP, twice the level anticipated in December 2025.

Much of the additional stimulus reflects higher German government spending on defence and infrastructure.

Other eurozone governments have introduced measures to limit the effect of energy prices on households and businesses.

Public investment and expenditure have therefore helped compensate for weakness in areas affected by higher import costs and international uncertainty.

Yet the ECB warned that fiscal support cannot necessarily continue at its present level.

Several eurozone governments face borrowing constraints, while additional public spending can place pressure on national budgets.

Interest-rate decisions remain difficult

The ECB’s assessment comes amid expectations of further monetary tightening as policymakers respond to renewed energy-related inflation.

The central bank must consider whether higher energy costs will remain temporary or begin influencing wages, prices and inflation expectations more broadly.

Additional interest-rate increases could reduce inflationary pressures but would also raise borrowing costs for businesses, governments and households.

The economic recovery remains exposed to potential reversals in global demand, international trade and investment in artificial intelligence.

The ECB’s economists also identified geopolitical escalation and further supply-chain disruption as continuing risks.

Their findings indicate that reduced fossil-fuel dependence has made the eurozone less vulnerable to energy shocks, while technology investment and government spending have provided additional support.

Whether that resilience continues into 2027 will depend partly on the durability of international demand and the ability of European governments to maintain investment without increasing inflationary pressure.

TOKYO — An unwelcome blast of US inflation is blowing across Asia’s markets. September’s hotter-than-expected price data revived concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer, threatening fresh pressure on currencies, capital flows and economic growth across the region.

Last month’s 3.7% year-on-year increase in consumer prices didn’t just exceed forecasts. It ensured the Fed is on an even bigger collision course with both the bond market and US President Donald Trump’s White House. It’s arguably the last thing both Trump and US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh wanted to see less than three weeks ahead of the mid-term elections.

The post Hot US inflation singes Asia as higher-for-longer Fed rates loom appeared first on Asia Times.

It’s not often that events in Mumbai reverberate through global markets. But the Reserve Bank of India’s first interest rate hike in almost four years speaks volumes about the chaotic state of play. The inflation slamming Asia’s third-biggest economy and the rupee’s drop to record lows left RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra with no choice but […]

The post India’s rate hike a loud warning shot for Modinomics appeared first on Asia Times.

TOKYO – For decades, the US enjoyed a remarkable luxury: its two biggest creditors, Japan and China, kept showing up at Treasury auctions with checkbooks open. Now, Donald Trump’s trade wars, tariff threats and widening geopolitical confrontations raise an uncomfortable question: what happens if Washington’s most reliable bankers decide they’ve had enough? Granted, global investors […]

The post When Asia’s central banks turn bond vigilante on Trump appeared first on Asia Times.

Consumers could be facing higher borrowing costs for longer as bond markets are once again signalling rising economic risk to the finance and investing community.

Consumers could be facing higher borrowing costs for longer as bond markets are once again signalling rising economic risk to the finance and investing community.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose to 8.7% year-over-year in August, up from 8.4% in July.

The post Pakistan’s inflation rises to 11.15% in August 2026 appeared first on BOL News.