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Ukraine's Starlink slowdown only dropped its interception rate against Russia's new Shaheds by a few percent

A firefighter runs as a building behind him burns.
Firefighters extinguish a fire at a medical facility hit by a Russian drone in Kyiv.

Oleksandr Magula/Suspilne Ukraine/JSC "UA:PBC"/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

  • Ukraine downed about 74% of Russia's turbojet Shaheds while Starshield was throttled, ISW says.
  • That's about 3 percentage points lower than its typical interception rate of about 77%, analysts said.
  • Much of Ukraine's air defense against turbojet Shaheds now relies on fighter jets like the F-16.

Ukrainian data shows its air defenses largely held up against one of Russia's most prominent new threats despite a 10-day Starshield slowdown.

Though high-speed interceptor drones were hindered by the reported throttling, Kyiv's forces managed to intercept 74% of Russian jet-powered Shaheds from October 14 to 24, compared with a typical rate of 77%, according to analysts at the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War.

The organization bases its analyses on interception data released by Ukraine's air force, which said Russia had launched hundreds of the turbojet attack drones over the 10-day period.

The drop of three percentage points, or roughly 3.8%, translates to a "still relatively high interception rate" but doesn't mean Ukraine can rest easy, the ISW analysts wrote.

Many interceptons were owed to Ukrainian fighter jets countering Russian jet Shaheds with air-to-air missiles or guns.

For months, fighter aircraft have been Ukraine's primary and most successful air defense so far against jet Shaheds — an assessment that Ukrainian air force spokesperson Col. Yuriy Ihnat repeated to local media on Monday after Starshield services returned to normal.

"We are counting on the aviation component," he told RBC Ukraine, referring to helicopters and fighter jets.

One of Ukraine's main aircraft in this fight is the F-16 Fighting Falcon, which Ihnat said in April could shoot down 10 Russian Shaheds each in a single night. The F-16 carries the M61A1 Vulcan, a six-barrel, Gatling-style rotary cannon that fires 20mm rounds.

Kyiv requisitioned more than 50,000 of these rounds from Denmark last week in a scramble to bolster its air defenses while Starshield, the military version of Starlink that its interceptor drones rely on, was limited by a speed cap. That many rounds is enough for roughly 100 sorties.

The F-16 pillar can't last forever

But ISW analysts wrote that the F-16 strategy poses a few complications for Ukraine. Using its gun to shoot down jet Shaheds, for example, "requires a high pilot skill level and increases the risk to the airframe and pilot," the wrote.

The practice also increases maintenance demands for Ukraine's already-strained fighter jets and distracts them from other missions they could be needed for, the analysts added.

"Supplementing the Ukrainian air defense umbrella with interceptor drones is Ukraine's best chance at developing a robust air defense umbrella capable of sustaining high interception rates of Russian jet-powered drones over the long term," the analysts wrote.

An F-16 Fighting Falcon seen from under its nose.
Ukraine received its first F-16s in the summer of 2024.

Office of the President of Ukraine/Air Force of Ukraine/Cover Images via Reuters

Indeed, before Russia began surging launches of jet-powered drones, Ukraine had reported much higher interception rates of over 90% against propeller Shaheds in some months.

These had been largely boosted by Ukraine's mass adoption of interceptor drones, or small drones that cost just a fraction of traditional interceptor missiles.

But Russia's increased use of turbojets on its attack drones, the more advanced of which can fly at speeds of up to 370 mph, meant Ukraine has to radically evolve its designs to keep up. While it now has several types of drones capable of catching and destroying jet-powered Shaheds, the new interceptor effort as a whole is still in early stages.

Many of these new interceptors became ineffective during the 10-day slowdown of Starshield, which Ukraine said stopped working when a drone flew faster than 100 mph.

The reason for the connectivity problems is still unclear. They emerged as President Donald Trump and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk both openly criticized Ukraine for strikes on Russian energy infrastructure as the White House sought to lower gas prices.

Trump and Musk have separately said they were not responsible for the slowdown to Starshield, which is owned and operated by the US government.

Musk, while maintaining that the US controls Starshield, later also accused Ukrainian forces of breaching civilian network Starlink's terms of service by using it for drone strikes.

On Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Starshield services were restored.

Meanwhile, some Ukrainians are already bracing for a new threat from Russia through cheap, mass-producible cruise missiles. One such missile, the Filin, has been listed by Russia as capable of flying as fast as 500 mph.

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Ukrainian soldiers surprised a major drone maker with how much explosive weight they packed onto one of its drones

Multirotor drone flies low over a grassy field carrying a strapped cylindrical payload.
Ukrainian drone maker TechEx was surprised at how heavy a payload a Ukrainian unit was able to fly on one of its drones.

Ukrinform/Ukrinform/Sipa USA

  • A Ukrainian drone maker was surprised by how much explosive weight soldiers loaded onto one of its drones.
  • A drone's payload is limited by the weight of its battery, camera, and other equipment.
  • Drone makers push technical limits, but Ukrainian soldiers often go even further.

A major drone maker said Ukrainian soldiers surprised it by packing one of its drones with more explosives than the company ever thought it could carry.

When loading up an attack drone with explosives, combat units are limited by how much weight it can carry and still fly. Batteries, cameras, and other essential equipment also take up some of that capacity. That doesn't stop soldiers from pushing the equipment to its limit.

"One of the most surprising videos I've seen recently is that one of the units has managed to put the huge explosive part on our drone," Oleg, an executive at TechEx, told Business Insider.

The drone was carrying "something like five or seven kilos, and they managed to fly into the building and put it completely to the ground with one single FPV."

"I was like, 'How do you literally put this amount of explosives on one single FPV?' But it managed to carry this on and did the mission," the TechEx exec said, speaking on the condition that he be identified only by his first name for security reasons.

TechEx lists a maximum payload of two kilograms for three of its NATO-codified fiber-optic drones: the Stalker XO-10 China-Free, Stalker XO-15 MAX PRO, and Stalker XO-13.

Weight is a major constraint for Ukraine's drone makers, who are constantly trying to accommodate more firepower and bigger batteries, as well as heavier weapons and cameras. It's a constant trade-off, with every gram mattering.

Soldiers fighting for survival often push beyond advertised limits. Last year, a sergeant major in a heavy bomber company told Army Inform, Ukraine's defense ministry media, that while a Bat drone can fly up 8 kilometers and carry up to 12 kilograms, his unit pushed it to fly a little farther and carry a little more.

Weight is an important consideration for TechEx drone development. The company advertises its "ultralight fiber optic reel" as one of its product advantages. Last year, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense characterized TechEx's Stalker series as having a "record-low spool weight among Ukrainian fiber-optic drones."

A man in camouflage stands behind a drone in a dried field
Fiber-optic drones have to carry their cable spool, which adds extra weight.

Jose Colon/Anadolu via Getty Images

The struggle with weight is particularly acute for fiber-optic drones because, in addition to gear like batteries, they have to carry the spool containing the fiber-optic cable that trails behind them, maintaining a connection with the drone operator. The cable makes them resistant to enemy jamming, but the added weight limits how many explosives they can carry. The cable spool can weigh several kilograms on some drones.

Olha, a TechEx representative, told Business Insider that the company developed its own technology to reduce spool weight, making "tiny tweaks and changes" to how the spool is assembled and the fiber is wound into it. Those adjustments allow the company to keep the spool lightweight while maintaining a stable connection and minimizing the risk of the cable breaking during flight.

The company needs the "perfect balance" to make sure it stays reliable and durable, as not all drone pilots have a wealth of flying experience, Oleg said.

The company faces trade-off decisions. Extending the range of its fiber-optic drones, for instance, would require larger cable spools, potentially leaving less room for explosives, Olha said. But not every drone needs a heavy payload. For some, speed and agility matter more.

Ukraine's soldiers often surprise the manufacturers of their weapons with how they use and adapt their gear, with troops sometimes repairing and modifying equipment near the front lines and experimenting with new tactics.

Kuldar Väärsi, the founder and CEO of Estonian ground robot maker Milrem Robotics, previously told Business Insider that Ukrainian soldiers used the company's technology in ways it was not expecting, including adding and attaching things to the robots. "Ukrainian troops are really creative, and they really find very simple ways how to get even more out of the equipment," he said.

Camouflaged service member carrying a rifle walks beside THeMIS unmanned ground vehicles on a gravel training area.
Ukrainian soldiers surprise arms makers with how they adapt, tweak, and use their gear on the battlefield.

2CR

How gear is used in the field often informs how Ukraine's defense companies update and modify their products. Soldiers give feedback to firms like TechEx every day, and companies send their own employees close to the fight to gather feedback and make changes.

Oleg said that TechEx receives direct feedback from soldiers constantly, resulting in weekly changes to its products. Without changes, a product in Ukraine "within three months, it will be outdated, and nobody will use it, because the industry is moving extremely fast," he said.

TechEx encourages soldier experimentation, including by making its drones with parts that are interchangeable. Soldiers can swap components to repair damaged drones or combine parts to create configurations the company never designed.

"Part of what I think TechEx is really great at is the ability to customize," Olha said.

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Ukraine is using drones like hovering WiFi repeaters to help attack drones reach farther

Multirotor drone flies against a blue sky carrying sensors and a patterned calibration panel.
Twist Robotics' drones can be used as signal repeaters to help the connection between a drone operator and their mission drone.

Twist Robotics

  • Drones in Ukraine act as flying communications bridges between operators and mission drones.
  • They repeat the operators' signal to allow drones to fly farther while staying connected.
  • The signal-repeating drones make other drones more resistant to Russia's electronic warfare.

Ukraine has created drones that act as flying relay towers, allowing its drones conducting missions to fly farther while making them harder for Russia to jam.

In a war where drones gather intel and account for more than 95% of Russia's front-line losses, Ukraine wants its operators to keep control of their drones over longer distances with stronger signals that are harder for Russia to break.

One solution is the signal repeater drone, a flying signal booster that operates between a pilot and a mission drone, relaying commands to the aircraft and sending back video and intelligence to the operator. Able to fly much higher than a ground antenna, airborne repeaters can extend a drone's range and help preserve the connection under pressure.

It increases the mission drone's operational range by extending how far it can fly while staying connected to its pilot. It's a similar principle to how wifi repeaters work.

Ukrainian arms maker Twist Robotics makes a signal-repeating drone, born from its Saker Scout drone.

Rostyslav Olenchyn, the company's co-founder and chief information officer, told Business Insider that the drone was widely used for reconnaissance and strike operations, but this war changes rapidly, with arms and warfighting technology quickly becoming obsolete. And without updates, this drone was at risk of falling victim to that pattern in the cat-and-mouse technology race.

Drones needed to be effective at longer ranges, and the Saker Scout's range was "not enough" for many missions. So, the drone was redesigned "for another objective. It became the signal relay station," Olenchyn said.

Masked person in tactical-style clothing operates a wired handheld controller while wearing electronic goggles indoors.
Ukraine's drone operators want to be able to fly their drones as far and with as strong a connection as possible.

Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Saker Scout, able to also be used in other combat roles, can extend the operational range of drones by more than 50 kilometers, according to the company.

The concept of using aircraft as signal middlemen isn't new. Militaries have used helicopters and planes to relay communications between assets and forces disconnected by the terrain, though usually troops rather than drones. These crewed aircraft, however, struggle to operate over Ukraine, but while such air assets are few and far between, drones are prolific.

Large crewed aircraft cannot "necessarily survive in the heavy saturated air of the battlefield," where drones and air defenses are a threatening presence, Olenchyn said. "So the small, versatile platform was a solution." He said that serial production of the Saker Scout with this function started in 2023.

The company's strike drone, the Signal Hunter, can also be used as a relay.

Other Ukrainian companies are also working in the space, with some updating existing drone types and some designing new ones. Roboneers, for example, developed a version of its Wardog drone that can carry relay equipment weighing up to three kilograms, and Skyriper makes the Skyriper-R Airborne Repeater, a dedicated drone with the single function of acting as an airborne repeater.

Volodymyr Zinovskyi, the CEO of the Ukrainian defense firm TAF Industries, told Business Insider that his company started making relay drones last year at the request of units, describing the technology as going from optional to essential.

Brave1, Ukraine's state-backed innovation platform, wrote last year that "the use of UAVs over long distances or in difficult terrain requires the use of repeaters - special devices that help increase the range of a stable signal several times."

Some Ukrainian drones are built for this relay mission, while others can be fitted with add-on repeater equipment.

Quadcopter drone carrying a mounted payload flies against a bright blue sky with scattered clouds.
Twist Robotics' Saker Scout repeats the signal from a drone operator to their mission drone, and the reverse.

Twist Robotics

Beyond overcoming geographical challenges, airborne repeaters also help counter Russian electronic warfare by strengthening the communications link between operators and mission drones, making it harder to disrupt, though Russia can still target the relay itself.

An analysis published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US think tank, last year described the creation of relay systems as a response to growing electronic warfare tactics, including the ability that both sides have to trace drone control signals back to their source for strikes on operators, priority targets in this war.

Dmytro "Liber" Zhluktenko, a former drone operator who now serves as a lessons-learned analyst with Ukraine's 413th Unmanned Systems Regiment "RAID," told Business Insider that Ukrainian forces are "keeping somewhat a stable radio link by mass utilizing signal repeaters."

He said that some uncrewed repeater aircraft are fixed-wing drones, while some are repurposed bomber-type drones. Instead of bombs, it just carries the signal repeater," he said.

"We optimize those signal repeater carriers to just stay in the air for an extremely long time, like one hour plus," he said. "That's their only job: to be in the air." Working with strike drones, they give operators a "great radio link over the target."

Oleksiy, the commander of the 2nd UAV engineer platoon of the International Defense Legion of Ukraine, told ArmyInform, the official information agency of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, last year that his unit uses repeaters on drones to expand the radio horizon of the drones they want to use and fly further to target Russia.

Russia is using the technology too, including to help attack drones fly deeper into Ukrainian territory.

And these lessons aren't limited to the Ukraine war. The US military is also experimenting with ways to extend drone operations and keep operators connected from farther away. The Marine Corps, for instance, has experimented with using helicopters as FPV motherships, as well as handing off control after launch.

Though different from Ukraine's airborne repeater work, both address a similar battlefield problem, which is that drones are only useful if operators can launch them, control them, and keep receiving information at tactically relevant distances.

Olenchyn said that updates, like the signal repeating ability, are critical in combat. He said that every two weeks, the company has "a new update, new kinds of techniques, new kinds of drones or functionality which are released."

Read the original article on Business Insider

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A NATO drone maker says Ukraine's underground factories hold a lesson for the West. It's learning that firsthand.

Several quadcopter drones rest in a line on a gravel path with trees in the background.
ORQA makes drones used by NATO militaries and parts used by Ukrainian manufacturers, and is now learning lessons about building in wartime.

Reuters

  • A NATO drone maker is partnering with a Ukrainian firm to manufacture drone parts underground.
  • ORQA says the partnership offers lessons in keeping factories running during wartime.
  • Western companies often overlook Ukraine's experience in manufacturing under attack, it says.

A NATO drone maker is teaming up with Ukraine's defense industry and building drone parts underground. The company's CEO said it's seeking to learn lessons in wartime production that could prove critical for Western defense companies in a crisis.

Croatian drone technology company ORQA and Ukrainian drone maker General Cherry are jointly developing and manufacturing interceptor drones, components, and other counter-drone systems in both countries. As part of the partnership, they are building an underground factory in Ukraine to make components.

Working amid Ukraine's wartime risks teaches the company valuable lessons in manufacturing while under attack, ORQA CEO Srđan Kovačević told Business Insider. Producing components in Ukraine is also more efficient than making them in NATO and shipping them to the Ukrainian military, he said.

Kovačević said his company is "learning from Ukraine," where industry is "under constant threat."

"They were also compelled to go underground, to go wide, to de-risk their assets in distribution," he said. "So I think that's the way forward for any critical capabilities."

Ukrainian defense firms are splitting their manufacturing across multiple sites, frequently relocating, and moving some work underground to avoid being targeted by Russian attacks. It's less efficient, but more resilient to attacks. Some Western officials and companies warn that it's time for European industry to learn these practices amid concerns about Russian aggression.

"Distributed systems are much more resilient to any disruption than concentrated systems, centralized systems," Kovačević said. "It's simply about not having a single point of failure."

Ukraine has "this immensely valuable lived experience of building and scaling under fire," the ORQA CEO said, "that's being often abstracted and neglected by Western companies." That, however, is starting to change, he said.

"I think the thinking is really shifting on the European side as well, that this distributed nature actually reinforces resilience even though there are economic downsides to it."

A masked person holds a black fixed-wing drone against a clear blue sky.
Ukraine's General Cherry has experience building, innovating, and scaling while at risk of attack.

AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File

Raivis Melnis, the defense minister of Latvia, told Business Insider that NATO companies work in a far more concentrated way than Ukrainian ones do, and "the question is whether we are ready to produce the systems in different locations, dispersed, and how we organize that."

He wants Latvian and Ukrainian defense industries to work together in part so they can learn how Ukrainian companies maintain production during a war.

Davyd Aloian, the deputy secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, told Business Insider earlier this year that defense companies within parts of NATO should "definitely" start breaking up their production more.

Some defense industry figures have voiced similar concerns about the state of production in the West. Karmo Saar, the head of sales for Estonian drone maker Krattworks, told Business Insider that in a war with Russia, if European companies don't disperse more, "I think we're going to be punished."

Dispersing production is not without trade-offs, though. Achi, CEO of the Ukrainian-Estonian defense technology company and ground robot maker Ark Robotics, told Business Insider that such defensive steps are "necessary," but "not ideal." Operations would be easier with everything in one place.

Choosing Ukraine despite the danger

Some Ukrainian companies have begun setting up production in NATO countries, both to better share their expertise with partner nations and to operate without the risk of Russian attacks.

But Kovačević, whose company makes drones as well as drone technology, including controllers, receivers, goggles, video equipment, and flight simulators, said that building in Ukraine comes with upsides.

The company, which supplies 24 NATO allies, could have done all of its work with General Cherry in Croatia, but instead, they are spreading their joint work across both countries.

Kovačević said building components in Europe and then importing them into Ukraine is "more inefficient than actually doing it in Ukraine." It's also more expensive, and Ukraine has shown its ability to produce in large volumes.

Stacks of partially assembled multirotor drones with exposed wiring and propeller motors fill an indoor workspace.
Ukrainian companies like General Cherry are building at a scale and in conditions that their Western counterparts are typically not used to.

AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File

Localizing the supply chain also means that all parties can "exchange information more efficiently," including about what's happening and what's needed on the battlefield.

He said he understands why some Ukrainian companies are building gear on NATO soil, but he sees value in partnering with General Cherry in Ukraine. He said the Ukrainian company, one of the country's largest drone makers, has "a high operational excellence in running their own manufacturing operations in a safe manner, even under constant threat."

The partnership also offers lessons beyond manufacturing. He said that while the West "has a very deep technology expertise," it lacks "this lived experience of taking that technology and applying it to the operational reality of the 21st-century warfare."

The goal is to both supply Ukraine and to equip NATO with weapons shaped by Ukraine's battlefield experience and expertise. In Croatia, the partners are establishing a joint serial-production facility for co-developed interceptor drones and other counter-drone systems destined for NATO, while in Ukraine, they intend to create drone components, including electronics and communications systems, which General Cherry says it will supply to "all our partners in Ukraine," not just use itself.

Ukraine is already able to make the drones that the partnership will produce in Croatia, but "what they lack is the capacity to build components that go into those systems," Kovačević said, explaining the focus of the Ukrainian facility. He said the project won't disrupt Ukraine's existing supply chains. One of ORQA's priorities is to reduce reliance on Chinese products, and it wants to help Ukraine's industry do the same.

"Now," he said, "it's time to merge the two and emerge better off on both sides of this partnership."

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A Western drone company explains why setting up shop in Ukraine is necessary to build better weapons for NATO

Quadcopter drone flies above a road with a blurred armored vehicle in a grassy training area.
ORQA supplies drones to NATO militaries and views working in Ukraine as key to making the standard of drone technology that the alliance needs.

Stefan Wermuth/REUTERS

  • A major Western drone firm says working in Ukraine is key to getting gear to the standard NATO needs.
  • ORQA is partnering with Ukraine's industry to co-produce drone systems, including for the NATO market.
  • Its CEO said Ukraine has battlefield experience and operational excellence that can shape gear for NATO.

A Western company developing drone technology for NATO militaries says that working in Ukraine is the best way to ensure its gear meets the alliance's needs for a future fight.

ORQA, a Croatian company that makes drones and drone technology, including controllers, receivers, goggles, video equipment, and flight simulators, already supplies parts and systems to two dozen NATO allies. But it wants to draw on Ukraine's battlefield experience to improve its products.

Working in Ukraine "creates an opportunity to really channel this sort of operational expertise to shape these products. And then these products can be made to a standard that NATO demands," CEO Srđan Kovačević told Business Insider.

ORQA produces components used by Ukrainian defense tech company General Cherry and is partnering with the firm to jointly make drone systems and spread Ukraine's drone expertise.

The war in Ukraine is the most intense drone war ever fought, and getting feedback from the battlefield provides critical insight into what soldiers need most.

Large multi-rotor drone displayed on a trade-show stand beneath a “GENERAL CHERRY 13” sign.
ORQA and General Cherry are working together to produce for both Ukraine and the NATO market.

John Keeble/Getty Images

"If I'm being blunt, there are only a few parts of the world where you can actively shoot down these unmanned aerial threats in a real-world environment," Kovačević told Business Insider.

That same drive has prompted Western defense companies, ranging from small start-ups to major primes, to set up manufacturing facilities, repair hubs, and offices in Ukraine, seeking battlefield feedback to improve their technology faster.

ORQA is also seeking to better understand how Ukraine's defense industry scales, moves quickly, and works in wartime.

Ukrainian defense firms are producing drones and other weapons at a much faster rate than many of their Western counterparts.

Kovačević said that "the West has a tremendous amount to learn from Ukraine," saying that the "operational excellence that Ukrainian defense forces have developed is unparalleled in the Western world."

He said that while the West "has a very deep technology expertise," it lacks "this lived experience of taking that technology and applying it to the operational reality of the 21st-century warfare."

"Now," he said, "it's time to merge the two and emerge better off on both sides of this partnership."

General Cherry is one of Ukraine's biggest drone companies and has announced partnerships with other Western defense tech companies.

A person in tactical gear adjusts a fixed-wing drone mounted on a stand in a wooded outdoor area.
Ukraine is fighting the most drone-heavy war ever.

Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images

ORQA and General Cherry intend to manufacture in both countries, supplying NATO and its allies with Ukrainian-developed counter-drone technology while expanding domestic production of drone components in Ukraine.

Kovačević said Ukrainian companies like General Cherry have "immensely valuable lived experience of building and scaling under fire," something that is often "neglected by Western companies," but they can learn.

The significant "volumes that Ukrainian drone companies are able to produce really dwarf anything that's happening in the West right now," he added.

Western leaders are encouraging industrial collaboration, and NATO has launched programs to bring Ukrainian and allied defense companies together.

ORQA isn't alone in looking to Ukraine's extensive battlefield experience to develop better weapons for NATO. Latvia-based Origin Robotics, for example, makes BLAZE interceptor drones purchased by several NATO militaries and BEAK, a drone-launched precision-guided weapon used by Ukrainian forces.

Its CEO, Agris Kipurs, previously told Business Insider that the company takes lessons from its work in Ukraine, "but we adapt those weapons systems specifically to be used in a NATO country. And NATO countries and the armies of NATO countries are our customers. That is the user we build for."

Kovačević said Ukrainian technology can't simply be transplanted into NATO militaries. Ukraine has had to develop weapons at breakneck speed and make do with what's available.

NATO, however, has time to take operational knowledge, contextualize it for alliance forces, and build these products to the necessary standards using Western technology, he said.

Kovačević said the goal of these industrial partnerships is to supply NATO without undermining Ukraine's ability to meet its own wartime needs.

ORQA also aims to boost Ukraine's domestic production of drone components and reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers.

Ukraine is "relying heavily on non-Ukrainian and non-European supply chains," Kovačević said, adding that reducing that dependence is strategically important. ORQA says it manufactures key components in-house and avoids Chinese-made parts to strengthen its supply chain.

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Russia's new type of 3D printed missile will make jet Shaheds look like a 'small problem,' Ukraine's drone gurus warn

Debris from the chassis of a Filin cruise missile lies on the ground.
A photo of debris from the Filin cruise missile, as posted by Sternenko and Beskrestnov.

Screenshot via Telegram/Serhii Sternenko

  • Russia looks to be moving toward 3D printed cruise missiles for its next era of air attacks on Ukraine.
  • The threat could be so major, turbojet Shaheds would seem like a small problem, one drone guru said.
  • GUR recently posted details of the Filin, a cheap Russian missile reported to fly as fast as 500 mph.

Russia's next big bet in the air war will likely move past jet-powered Shaheds to a deep arsenal of new cruise missiles, two of Ukraine's most prominent drone experts warned on Thursday.

Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov and Serhii Sternenko wrote separately on their Telegram channels about the Filin, an 11-foot Russian winged cruise missile that Ukraine's military intelligence service recently unveiled.

These cheap weapons possess superior capabilities that would easily overshadow the threat posed by the Shahed, according to the pair, both former drone advisors to Ukraine's defense ministry.

"The mass use of this type of aerial attack weapon is what awaits us very soon," wrote Sternenko, who runs a major foundation that crowdfunds for Ukraine's military, in a Telegram post.

"Then we will remember the jet Shaheds only as a small problem compared to this," he added.

Beskrestnov, a drone analyst, said he had "long predicted that our adversary is betting on cheap cruise missiles for the future, not on jet Shaheds."

He wrote on his Telegram channel that the Filin can fly faster, maneuver better, and carry a heavier payload than Russia's current turbojet drones,

"They do not need drone ports, many of them can be launched from helicopters and UAVs. And most importantly, they can be produced from Russian components," Beskrestnov added.

A strike at nearly 500 mph for cheap

On Wednesday, Ukraine's military intelligence agency, GUR, released extensive details on the Filin, which it said Russia had begun deploying at the end of summer 2026.

The Filin, it said, is the "continuation of the trend of the Russian military-industrial complex to develop inexpensive air attack weapons with jet propulsion and ground launch."

The ground-launched missile can carry a 100kg warhead, and Russia has said that it can fly at speeds of almost 500 mph at a range of 745 miles. By comparison, the Kremlin's most advanced jet-powered drone deployed so far, the Geran-5, is known to fly at a maximum speed of 370 mph.

The Filin can also fly at "ultra-low altitudes" and as high as 3.7 miles, GUR said.

Similar to Russia's Shahed drones, the Filin features a carbon and fiberglass fuselage, with some of its parts produced via 3D printing, the intelligence service added.

And as with turbojet Shaheds, GUR also said that the Filin is filled with foreign electronics in its flight controller, inertial navigation system, equipment control unit, and counter-jamming hardware.

The agency listed 35 components from the US, including transistors and converters; 22 from China; and 13 more from Japan, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the Netherlands.

Notably, GUR said the Filin's engine is Russian-made, compared to the Chinese engines used on many of Moscow's turbojet drones. The same engine has been found on other recently unveiled Russian missiles, such as the air-launched Kover and Monochrome.

Much of Russia's ability to reduce the cost of its new cruise missiles is owed to its use of commercial engines and components. Another high-profile Russian missile that also uses civilian tech is the Banderol, which emerged in the spring of 2025 and has been straining Ukraine's air defense networks in the last few months.

The Banderol flies more slowly and has a shorter range than the Filin, but it still reaches a max speed of 435 mph, making it much harder for Ukraine to intercept with drones. Its estimated price is $150,000 per unit — about a sixteenth the cost of a traditional Kh-101 cruise missile — so it's easier to mass-produce.

The frequent use of weapons like the Banderol over the summer has led to fears that Russia will lean into its tactic, often nicknamed "missile spam," to keep pushing Ukrainian air defenses.

"What is the Air Force command doing now to build up countermeasures in advance?" Sternenko wrote on Wednesday about the missile threat.

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