TEL AVIV, Israel: Israel's two Arab parties are in a position to have a say in who the country's next prime minister and government will be — but not if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has anything to do with it, after he alleged serious criminal activities took place during voting in the Arab areas of the nation.
The two parties were projected to win a combined 19 Knesset seats, according to preliminary results. With both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led right-wing bloc and the opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist bloc falling short of the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu wrote on X that Israel’s election had been "stolen by Arab parties that support terrorism and the elimination of the Jewish state," alleging serious criminal offenses, including bribery, threats, violence, forgery and the use of prohibited software to mobilize voters.
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"The Likud party is transferring to the police, the Shin Bet, and the Central Elections Committee hundreds of testimonies and pieces of evidence regarding election theft in many Arab polling stations," he wrote.
He cited allegations of thousands of envelopes containing cash and Ra’am ballot slips, threats and violence against polling station staff, multiple votes cast behind the voting curtain, voting under multiple identities, discrepancies between the number of ballot envelopes and the number of voters, the use of prohibited voter-mobilization software and other offenses.
"We demand from the police and the Shin Bet a thorough investigation into the election theft by the Arab parties and the full prosecution of the criminals. We demand from the Central Elections Committee an immediate response to investigate these criminal offenses that have severely damaged the integrity of the elections in Israel and the election results," he added.
In a letter addressed to Yesh Atid lawmaker Vladimir Beliak, Acting Central Elections Committee Director-General Dean Livne wrote that the elections "were conducted lawfully" and that, "to the best of my knowledge, there is no basis for allegations of systematic violations of election integrity," the Times of Israel reported. He also acknowledged that the request for an investigation concerned classified information whose veracity had not yet been determined.
The political make-up of the Arab parties includes the Joint List, which brings together three parties: Hadash, a predominantly Arab-Jewish left-wing party rooted in Israel’s communist movement, and the Arab nationalist parties Ta’al and Balad. With over 90% of ballots counted, the alliance was projected to win 12 seats.
The other Arab party, the United Arab List (Ra’am), led by Mansour Abbas and affiliated with the Southern Branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel, was projected to win seven seats.
Arab citizens make up approximately 21% of Israel’s population. Turnout in this election reached a near record high between 75% to 80%.
"They are a political force to be reckoned with," Dahlia Scheindlin, a former policy fellow at the Mitvim Institute and a senior analyst at Haaretz, told Fox News Digital.
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Scheindlin said that Netanyahu framed his campaign around the claim that the opposition is prepared to form a government dependent on Arab parties’ support, which he argues would lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state that would become a terror state and ultimately bring about Israel’s destruction.
"This is the most consistent message, and he never stopped saying it, including on election day," she said.
Scheindlin said that the issue had become politically sensitive, prompting leading Zionist opposition parties to pledge not to cooperate with the Arab parties.
"They have sworn they would not build a coalition that depends on Arab votes, either from within the coalition or from outside it. If they receive any help, they will have to break that promise," she added.
It is not inconceivable, though highly unlikely, that Netanyahu could reach out to one of the Arab parties to explore the possibility of cooperation, Scheindlin said.
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Dr. Arik Rudnitzky, a researcher in the Israel Democracy Institute’s Arab Society in Israel Program, said that Arab parties had historically remained in the opposition and had not joined governing coalitions.
During the governments of Yitzhak Rabin and, later, Shimon Peres in the 1990s, Arab parties provided a parliamentary safety net from outside the coalition. This enabled the government to remain in office and complete its term even after it effectively became a minority government amid opposition to the Oslo Accords, as the Haredi Shas party left the government.
"Historically, Arab parties were always in the opposition for many reasons. It was quite uncommon to believe Arab parties could [support] the government. It’s a novelty of recent years, plus the fact that their political strength in terms of the number of seats was not as significant as it is today," Rudnitzky said.
Demographic changes alone do not explain the Arab parties’ growing political strength, Rudnitzky said; shifting voting patterns have also played a role.
"In the past, Arab voters supported both Arab and Jewish parties. In the 1980s and 1990s, approximately half voted for Jewish parties," he continued.
Rudnitzky said historical developments, the impact of the Oslo Accords and the entry of new Arab representatives into the Knesset contributed to a gradual shift away from Jewish parties, with more Arab voters turning to Arab parties.
"Today, we can say that between 85% and 90% of Arab voters support Arab parties. This is the main reason for their increased political strength," he added.
Any support Arab parties might provide to a prospective coalition would come in exchange for political concessions, Rudnitzky said. Their demands would likely include a government decision and a plan to combat crime in Arab communities, as well as a new socioeconomic development plan for the Arab sector involving budget allocations.
Ultimately, he said, such arrangements would involve allocating public goods and resources in exchange for political support. "There is no free lunch in politics. Every collaboration, either within a coalition or from the outside, has its political price."
Scheindlin noted that while the Joint List would not be invited to join a governing coalition — and its members would not want to do so anyway — Mansour Abbas and his United Arab List have pursued a different, more controversial approach. The party has accepted Israel as a Jewish state and seeks to improve the lives of Arab citizens within that framework, she said.
"They are expecting equality as citizens. They accepted Israel’s identity and are willing to work within that framework to improve the lives of their citizens. They are the only ones who have a chance of being invited into a coalition, as they were in 2021," she said.
In September, the Central Elections Committee (CEC) voted to disqualify the Joint List and the United Arab list from competing in the Oct. 27 elections. On Oct. 2, Israel’s Supreme Court overturned the CEC’s decisions against both parties.
Section 7A of the Basic Law: The Knesset bars candidates who deny Israel’s existence as a Jewish and democratic state, incite to racism, or support the armed struggle of an enemy state or terrorist organization against Israel from participating in Knesset elections.
Martin Sherman, founder and executive director of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies, told Fox News Digital that Arab parties in Israel are essentially illegal and should be barred from participating in elections.
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"They have different social agendas, perhaps, but on the political level, they all oppose Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people. One can only hope that politicians in Israel will realize that and that political ambitions and animosity toward Netanyahu will not prevail," he said.
One former Israeli diplomat noted the irony and said it was a good teaching moment for those who don't understand the country. "Arab Israelis voted in huge numbers and, according to the exit polls, won more Knesset seats than ever before. That is the answer to the ridiculously ignorant accusation that Israel is a supposed ‘apartheid’ state," Shahar Azani, veteran israeli diplomat and former spokesperson of Israel’s consulate in New York, told Fox News Digital.
He added, "Arab citizens are shaping the government and taking part in the Jewish state's democratic celebration, and we welcome it. But with great power comes great responsibility: they must now take the next step and reject the extremist positions some voiced as soon as the results came in, that would alienate them from Israel's Jewish majority."
The Israeli military launched large-scale domestic military exercises on Sunday to counter surprise border infiltrations and ground raids across northern and central Israel, mobilizing multiple divisions and air assets amid rising regional tensions.
The drills, set to continue over 48 hours, came as an Israeli security expert invoked the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Egypt and Syria used exercises to disguise preparations for a surprise attack, warning that escalating tensions in the region could in fact trigger what he described as a "dangerous miscalculation."
The large-scale maneuvers, the IDF said, involve the Northern Command’s 210th Division, the West Bank Division, and the Central Command’s 98th and 96th divisions, alongside the Israeli Air Force.
The exercise, scheduled just ahead of Israel's elections Oct. 27, aims to "maintain the forces’ alertness and readiness, strengthen the ability to defend communities, and make full use of aerial capabilities for defense in the area," according to the IDF.
On Friday, the IDF said troops would practice "a variety of scenarios, including a surprise attack and infiltration into Israeli territory by air and land," incorporating lessons learned from the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on Israel.
"This exercise is mostly about non-state actors with or without Iranian support," Israeli national security analyst Dr. Ehud Eilam told Fox News Digital.
"It's aimed at those in Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan who might try to infiltrate into Israel or send ground raids. Some are supported by Iran; others are not. It could be planned by Iran or be a local initiative."
"This is a massive exercise, the biggest one in recent years, aimed at protecting the borders," the former Israeli Ministry of Defense researcher added.
"It's all about making sure that the election day on October 27 will run smoothly. It's also a message to Iran and others: don't try to provoke us during election day, so nothing will be disrupted."
The Israeli drills followed a show of force by Tehran days earlier, during which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired roughly 30 ballistic missiles across two distinct weapon classes, according to reports.
That live-fire display highlighted Iranian strike capabilities and sparked renewed alerts about commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and prompted the Israeli military to heighten its alert level while maintaining maximum readiness for a targeted strike against Iran.
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During a visit to the IDF's Central Command on Wednesday, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir warned that the risk of escalation was growing.
"Given the numerous warnings across all fronts and the sensitivity of the current period, the potential for escalation has increased," Zamir said.
"To ensure better operational control on the ground, we have reinforced our troop deployments across all sectors, including moving the 98th Division into the area to strengthen security and stability."
"Part of mutual deterrence: a few days ago, Iran had their own pretty big exercise, and that was actually more intimidating as far as Israel is concerned because they launched missiles and prepared for a war with Israel," Eilam said.
"This exercise on Sunday and Monday is against Iran's proxies and allies at the border of Israel."
Sunday’s Israeli drill also followed an Oct. 19 mission in which Israeli fighter jets and aerial refueling tankers flew 800 miles across Syrian and Iraqi airspace to Iran’s border.
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Washington was notified in advance and viewed the maneuver as a non-kinetic show of force following the postponement of a broader strike package earlier in the month.
Despite the deterrence signals, Eilam warned that large-scale military exercises carry the "risk of miscalculation" and particularly when troop movements could be mistaken for preparations for an attack.
"During the Cold War, every time the Soviet Union or NATO carried out a major drill, having so many troops in the field meant they might attack if that was the intention," Eilam said.
He pointed to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Egypt and Syria used military exercises to help conceal troop buildups along Israel's borders.
Israeli intelligence largely dismissed the movements as routine drills, allowing the two countries to achieve strategic surprise when they launched a coordinated, two-front attack on Yom Kippur.
"The classic example in Israel is 1973, when Egypt and Syria conducted a major exercise just before the war that turned into the actual attack," the analyst said.
"Israel and Iran are now watching each other very closely and both sides suspect the other might strike first," Eilam added before stating that there is the chance of what they call "miscalculation — that each side suspects the other and strikes first by mistake."
"It's all about sending messages to each other."
"It remains uncertain whether there will eventually be an Israeli attack on Iran because it depends on U.S. authorization," Eilam concluded.
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"Right now, both sides are signaling: 'We are ready, don't mess with us, but we don't want to start a war right now.'"
JERUSALEM — Israel’s high-stakes election on Oct. 27 pits the longest serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, against the highly decorated retired Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot. While fairly new to politics, Eisenkot has an impressive resume that could help him become the Jewish state's next leader.
According to a number of polls, Eisenkot's centrist political party, Yashar, has a narrow lead over Netanyahu's Likud. To form a government, Yashar or Likud will need to cobble together a 61-seat majority of parties to be able to form a new coalition government.
He was born in Tiberias in Israel’s north to a Jewish-Moroccan family who relocated to Israel’s southernmost city, Eilat, on the Red Sea when he was a toddler.
A career soldier, he opted to serve in the infantry. He was part of the elite Golani Brigade and reached the zenith of the military with his 2015 appointment to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff in 2015 until 2019.
Yossi Melman, one of Israel’s most respected journalists on intelligence and defense reporting, told Fox News Digital that Eisenkot, "Is 100% a soldier. He is very brave and humble. He is an officer and gentleman."
Melman noted that when Eisenkot was chosen to be the next IDF chief of staff, he declined because he felt that then General Benny Gantz should receive the appointment. Melman asked, "How many people would do that? He was selected after Gantz. It shows his traits of modesty, honesty and not arrogant."
Melman said, "It is a miracle he is leading in the polls. He is the antithesis of a what a politician should be. He is not a great orator when you compare him to Netanyahu. He radiates honesty."
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Eisenkot’s Mizrahi background — Jews who originate from North Africa and the Middle East — would mean, if he prevails, that he would be the first Israeli Prime Minister of Moroccan origin. The Prime Minister’s office has been held by Israelis of Eastern European descent (Ashkenazi) since the rebirth of the Jewish state in 1948.
After Hamas invaded Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 and slaughtered over 1,200 people, including more than 40 Americans, Eisenkot joined Netanyahu’s war cabinet as a minister without portfolio.
Melman said Eisenkot "did not set any political conditions" and "his presence in the cabinet saved Netanyahu." After eight months of serving in the war cabinet, Eisenkot resigned, blaming the prime minister for failing to implement a comprehensive strategy.
The war against the Iran-backed terrorist movement Hamas took an enormous toll on the battle-hardened General Eisenkot and his family. Hamas killed his son, 25-year-old Master Sergeant Gal Eisenkot, in Dec. 2023. The terrorist organization also killed two nephews of Eisenkot. Netanyahu and his wife Sara said at the time that they were devastated by Gal’s death and Eisenkot was a "true hero."
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Danny Orbach, a military historian from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, gave his take on the leading contender to replace Netanyahu. "I think his military record and his prospects as a national leader have both significant strengths and serious weaknesses. He bears considerable responsibility for shaping the IDF that existed on Oct. 7, 2023. And that was, paradoxically, both the army that proved capable of defeating Hezbollah, striking Iran and achieving unprecedented military successes in the extraordinarily difficult, tunnel-ridden battlefield of Gaza and the army that failed so miserably on Oct. 7."
He continued that, "Like other chiefs of staff, Eisenkot bears responsibility for the decisions that reduced the army's size and for the infamous ‘conceptzia’ [Hebrew word for concept] regarding Hamas. In that respect, I consider him just as culpable as Netanyahu."
Israel’s military, intelligence and political establishments bought into the ‘conceptzia’ that Hamas could be housebroken with massive infusions of economic aid. Hamas, however, was wedded to its radical Islamist ideology —the destruction of the Jewish state — and used the funds to advance its war aims.
Orbach noted that "I don't think most of Eisenkot's support stems from his energy, enthusiasm or even his political platform. My impression is that Eisenkot has emerged as the default ‘non-Bibi’ candidate, the politician who currently channels much of the camp's hopes and expectations."
Orbach added that "I also doubt that Eisenkot would have had the political determination to stand up to the Biden administration on such matters."
Netanyahu and former President Biden repeatedly clashed over Biden’s attempts to rope in Israel’s efforts to defeat Iran’s seven-front war against the Jewish state.
The military historian, however, noted that "I believe an Eisenkot government could address several of Israel's most urgent problems. It would remove Ben Gvir from power, confront the growing problem of Jewish extremist violence and terrorism in the West Bank, and begin repairing Israel's severely damaged international legitimacy."
Itamar Ben-Gvir is a controversial right-wing firebrand politician and the current minister of national security since 2022, who has outraged many Western European and foreign leaders with his heated rhetoric against the Palestinians.
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Eisenkot’s wife, Hannah, comes from an American Jewish family. U.S. General Joseph Dunford awarded Eisenkot the Commander of the Legion of Merit because of his "exceptionally meritorious service as chief of the General Staff of the IDF" and his "contribution to the strategic cooperation between the United States and Israel [that] will have a lasting effect on both countries," according to the Washington Institute, where Eisenkot served as a military fellow in 2019.
Nadav Eyal, an Israeli analyst and journalist for the mass circulation Israeli paper Yedioth Aharonoth, told Fox News Digital, Gadi Eisenkot is widely considered one of the most successful Chiefs of Staff that Israel has had in the last thirty years."
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He continued that "Chiefs of Staff in Israel, unlike in other countries, are really extremely capable, in general, to be prime minister. They are leading the country’s biggest organization, the IDF."
Eyal, who writes extensively about the IDF, credited Eisenkot’s military planning against the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon and the significant defeats the Lebanese Shiite entity experienced, including the "discovery of tunnels that Hezbollah built" to enter Israel. Hezbollah immediately joined Hamas’s war against Israel in Oct. 2023.
Given the nature of Israel’s electoral system, an outright winner won’t likely be known for several days, since the leading party will need to form a coalition to get to the 61-seat mandate to run the country.
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