Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s effort to restore voting rights to tens of thousands of convicted felons sparked controversy Thursday after an attorney obtained an executive citation addressed to "Betty No Last Name," purportedly notifying the recipient that her voting rights had been restored.
The citation identifies No Last Name as one of more than 66,000 Virginians whose rights to vote, serve on juries and seek public office have reportedly been restored under Spanberger's administration. The controversy comes ahead of a Nov. 3 ballot measure that would make voting rights restoration automatic upon release from prison.
"It’s a big deal," said Virginia Beach attorney Tim Anderson, who first obtained the citation for No Last Name and shared it with Fox News Digital.
"It’s clear [Spanberger] didn’t sign it. No governor and no secretary of the commonwealth would sign a restoration order that says Betty No Last Name, so they’re not looking at it; they didn’t review anything," Anderson told Fox News Digital in an interview Thursday. Each citation bears the signatures of the governor and Secretary of the Commonwealth Candi Mundon-King.
"Whereas, Betty No Last Name, by reason of conviction(s), suffers political disabilities …," the citation obtained by Fox News Digital says.
Anderson said he obtained the citation through a public records request to the Chesapeake Sheriff's Office after reports emerged that restoration notices had been sent to felons who are now deceased. He said the document originated from Spanberger's office and was sent to the sheriff's office.
He speculated that the citations were generated through a mail merge of records and signed using an autopen despite language in the documents indicating that each case had been individually reviewed.
Former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares also questioned whether the administration had individually reviewed the restoration cases.
"Four mentions of ‘Betty No Last Name’ and still no last name. I’m thinking perhaps Abigail Spanberger’s ‘individualized review’ is just imaginary," Miyares said in a statement.
Fox News Digital reached out to Spanberger, Mundon-King and the Chesapeake Sheriff's Office for comment. A sheriff's office official also confirmed veracity of the citation received in No Last Name's name, and provided an additional copy to Fox News Digital.
Anderson said he found the questionable citation after contacting only a handful of Virginia law enforcement agencies and believes similar cases may exist elsewhere in the state. He also suggested that officials whose signatures appear on the citations could face criminal liability if the documents were found to be fraudulent, potentially resulting in forfeiture of office.
Anderson’s finding went viral on social media Thursday, and critics pointed out how No Last Name’s citation colored the upcoming ballot question on automatic rights restoration for felons.
Some Virginia lawmakers have called for an independent audit of Spanberger's rights-restoration process. State Sen. Glen Sturtevant, R-Chesterfield, who has called for the audit, said reports have since emerged of restoration citations being sent to deceased individuals.
FOX One unveiled a new interactive election experience on Thursday that will give users unprecedented access to results, polling, and analysis.
FOX One, Fox Corporation's wholly owned direct-to-consumer streaming service, announced the new election experience developed in partnership with FOX News Media. The experience is designed to give viewers more context and more local relevance as results come in for the upcoming midterm elections.
"Election night is expected to be among the most demanding live events we cover. The results don't arrive in order, and no two viewers are following the same set of races," Amit Dudakia, SVP & Head of Product at FOX Direct to Consumer, said in a statement.
"With FOX One, we're keeping coverage from Fox News and FOX Stations at the center and building the context around it, so viewers aren't toggling between a stream and a second screen to understand what just happened," Dudakia added. "The reporting stays front and center and the answers come to you."
The features will roll out on FOX One in the lead-up to Election Day, and the full experience will be available as election coverage begins.
Hundreds of House, Senate, gubernatorial and local races will be called across every time zone on Nov. 3, and the story of the night is rarely told by any single one of them.
FOX One's tool is built for exactly this kind of live event. As results break in parallel, a race in one state could reframe the math in another and what matters most to viewers may be a ballot measure in their own county.
Fox News Channel and FOX Local Stations’ election coverage will anchor the experience.
FOX One will add a layer of real-time context drawn from Fox News’ industry-leading election coverage and data capabilities, aggregating results, polling and race analysis into the viewing experience itself, so viewers can follow the night at the national level and the local level at the same time.
Feature highlights debuting on the platform for the 2026 midterm elections include a command center, an election hub offering a curated destination for the full breadth of FOX's election coverage, and an in-house built data platform.
Ask FOX, the in-app companion for the questions a live event raises in the moment, will feature an Elections Mode that lets viewers ask election-specific questions and get clear, sourced answers in real time.
When election coverage begins, the command center is the first thing living room viewers will see when opening FOX One. The live stream holds the center of the screen while a surrounding set of widgets carries the context, including voter polling, race-by-race results and Fox News insights on the night's key contests, all updating in real time.
The election hub will include video on battleground races, key ballot measures and the contests shaping control in Washington, editorially programmed by Fox News and Fox News Digital. The hub also surfaces coverage from FOX's local stations based on viewers' markets, so viewers in Los Angeles see what is on the ballot only in Los Angeles.
Elections Mode is being powered by "ElectionAI" – a new AI technology platform deployed for this election cycle that was developed in-house by FOX News Media, allowing for real-time answers to election-related questions.
The results, polling and insights across all FOX One experiences are powered by a single, unified data layer that FOX built alongside FOX News Media, unifying multiple election data sources into a single real-time feed for the app experiences. It is the same underlying infrastructure that also powers live context across FOX One's sports and news programming.
High-profile races that will determine which party controls the Senate for the next two years are extremely tight, according to a new CNN poll, as Maine and Kansas remain close and Democrats extended their leads in Texas and Michigan.
Democrats, who are widely projected to win a majority in the House of Representatives, need to flip four Senate seats from red to blue in order to gain a 51-seat majority, protecting their majority from the vice presidential tiebreaker.
Maine
In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is the only Republican incumbent running in a state that went for Kamala Harris in 2024.
Collins' Democratic challenger is Troy Jackson, the former president of the state Senate who jumped into the race as a replacement for the previous nominee, scandal-plagued Graham Platner.
The race has no clear frontrunner, according to the CNN poll, though Jackson holds a marginal lead.
Forty-nine percent of respondents told the outlet's pollsters they favored Jackson, compared to 45% for Collins. While Jackson is slightly ahead, at least 12.5% of voters say they could still change their minds.
Respondents tied Collins to her party less than any other Republican running for Senate in the nation, with 46% of respondents saying they believe she would choose her constituents over the Republican Party.
With Collins managing to distance herself from Trump, her race has largely become a referendum on her own career. Three-quarters of respondents from either party told CNN pollsters that their choice was motivated more by Collins than Jackson.
In Michigan, despite warnings from some mainstream Democrats and the state's Jewish community, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is building a lead over former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich.
Respondents favored El-Sayed at 49% compared to the 42% who favored Rogers, according to the poll. CNN's previous poll, released in early September, showed El-Sayed with a 47% share compared to Rogers' 44%, showing the former public health director El-Sayed building on his lead.
The Democrat has consolidated his party's support after a contentious primary with Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich. Ninty-five percent of likely Democrat voters say they'll punch the ticket for El-Sayed, up from 90% in the September poll.
Rogers voters, meanwhile, are motivated more by dislike for the Democratic candidate than faith in the Republican. 57% told CNN pollsters they were voting against El-Sayed, up from 41% in a previous poll.
Rogers' favorability has also taken a hit, moving from 58% in September to 50% in October.
Texas
Texas State Rep. James Talarico also built upon a narrow lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, despite Talarico's extended absence from the campaign trail in early October.
Forty-nine percent of likely voters told pollsters they'd vote for Talarico, while 43% said they would vote for Paxton, according to the poll.
Texas, a state that has voted for exactly one new Democratic Senate candidate into office since Lyndon B. Johnson vacated his seat to become vice president, also voted more strongly for Trump in 2024 than in either of his previous elections.
Despite the typically steadfast support for the GOP in the Lone Star State, Talarico is riding a wave of favorability and minority support to remain in pole position five days before polls close.
CNN's poll says 64% of likely voters of color support Talarico, including 22% of the cohort that voted for Trump in 2024.
Talarico is also leading Paxton in favorability within their own parties. 24% of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Paxton, according to the poll. Just 2% of Democrats, meanwhile, view Talarico unfavorably.
Kansas
In Kansas, a state which Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024, incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., is falling behind Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton.
Forty-nine percent of likely voters say they support Hamilton, 45% say they support Marshall.
Hamilton, a relatively unknown candidate, is far outperforming his own party in a state where Democrats are broadly unfavorable. 57% of voters view the Democratic Party as unfavorable while only 38% of them feel the same about Hamilton.
Like Republicans in Michigan, likely voters in Kansas appear to be more highly motivated by a dislike for one candidate than strong positive feelings for another. 59% of Hamilton backers say they're motivated by opposition to Marshall.
Hamilton, a Christian pastor, is even drawing support from across the aisle. Roughly 12% of Republicans and Republican-leaning likely voters say they support Hamilton, according to the poll.
CNN conducted its polling via telephone between Oct. 20 and Oct. 27. Registered voters were randomly sampled, according to the outlet. 838 likely voters were considered in Kansas, 783 in Maine, 768 in Michigan and 923 in Texas. CNN tabulated its margins of sampling error at plus or minus 4.5% for Kansas and Maine, 4.7% in Michigan and 4.2% in Texas.
Fox News Digital contacted all eight campaigns for further comment.
TEL AVIV, Israel - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition remained well short of a parliamentary majority Thursday as newly counted ballots showed a dramatic surge in support for Arab parties, potentially giving the opposition enough votes to challenge his control of parliament.
With 93.8% of ballots counted as of 4 a.m. ET Thursday (10 a.m. local time in Israel), including votes from the double-envelope count, Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc was projected to win 53 seats in Israel's 120-member Knesset, compared with 48 for the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. The two predominantly Arab parties were projected to secure a combined 19 seats, bringing the potential anti-Netanyahu parliamentary majority to 67.
The updated figures showed Netanyahu's Likud remaining the largest individual party with 26 seats, followed by Eisenkot's Yashar party with 21 and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's Beyachad party with 12. The figures remain preliminary.
The results leave neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot with the 61 seats required to form a government independently, raising the prospect of difficult coalition negotiations or another election.
The biggest shift came from Israel's Arab voters, whose turnout surged compared with previous elections, potentially reshaping the country's political balance.
Arab voter participation reached approximately 80%, compared with 53.2% in the 2022 election, according to the Israel Democracy Institute. The 2026 figure remains preliminary.
The Joint List was projected to win 11 seats, while Ra'am was projected to secure eight. Together, their 19 seats would nearly double the Arab parties' representation from the 10 seats they won in 2022.
Overall voter turnout reached 77.7% by the official 10 p.m. closing time on election night, the highest level at that hour since 1999, according to Israel's Central Elections Committee.
The increased Arab participation could prove decisive in determining the next government's composition. Although Eisenkot and several other opposition leaders ruled out including Arab parties in their governing coalition during the campaign, their parliamentary support could allow the opposition to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, a Netanyahu ally, and gain greater control over the legislative agenda even before a new government is formed.
The political stakes intensified Thursday following a Channel 12 report alleging that substantial sums originating in Qatar may have been transferred to influence voter participation in Arab communities.
According to N12, some of the funds allegedly traveled through financial channels previously used to transfer money to terrorist organizations, including currency exchanges.
The allegations have not been independently substantiated, and investigators have yet to establish whether foreign financing occurred or whether election-related crimes were committed.
Channel 12 reported that Shin Bet Director David Zini presented intelligence concerning suspected foreign interference to Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg, prompting the judge to order an investigation.
In a letter published by N12, Sohlberg instructed the domestic security agency to investigate the allegations and identify evidence that could either substantiate or disprove them. He requested findings within one week, citing the limited time available during the election count.
The judge's letter did not publicly identify Qatar as the suspected foreign actor. That identification came from N12's reporting.
Qatar strongly denied the allegations Thursday, accusing Israeli politicians of attempting to drag the Gulf nation into Israel's domestic political disputes following the election.
"We categorically deny allegations that Qatar has interfered in Israeli elections or funded any activities intended to influence their outcome," Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Dr. Majed Al-Ansari wrote on X.
Al-Ansari accused Israeli politicians and their allies in the media of launching a "disinformation campaign," saying Qatar had been accused of financing Netanyahu, the Israeli left and now Arab voters.
"If these claims were to be believed, Qatar would apparently own all of Israel," he wrote. "Qatar should not be used as a scapegoat for the political failures of certain Israeli politicians," Al-Ansari added, insisting that Qatar had no involvement in Israel's electoral process and would continue its diplomatic and humanitarian efforts in the region.
Acting Central Elections Committee director general Dean Livne also rejected the allegations in a letter to Yesh Atid MK Vladimir Beliak, who sits on the committee. "The Knesset elections were conducted lawfully. The integrity of the elections at polling stations was rigorously safeguarded, and to the best of our knowledge, there is no basis for allegations of systematic violations of election integrity."
Israel's Shin Bet security agency clarified Thursday that the intelligence behind the investigation was gathered independently and did not originate from any political party. It said no one outside the agency, except Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg, had access to the information before the election ended.
The agency stressed that the investigation remains ongoing and warned against drawing premature conclusions.
The investigation "does not cast aspersions on or accuse an entire sector that went out to vote democratically and lawfully," the Shin Bet said in a statement translated from Hebrew.
The agency also confirmed that Shin Bet Director David Zini had briefed Netanyahu, Eisenkot and opposition leader Yair Lapid on the allegations, with Sohlberg's approval.
But the allegations have already become part of the political confrontation over whether opposition parties should cooperate with Arab lawmakers.
Netanyahu and Likud had challenged the legitimacy of the Arab parties' electoral gains. On Wednesday, before the latest Qatari allegations emerged, Likud accused Arab parties of stealing the election through alleged voter fraud, accusations that had not been substantiated.
In a statement Thursday, Likud argued that the suspected foreign interference made cooperation with the Arab parties unacceptable.
"After it became clear that foreign actors attempted to take control of the Knesset, it is obvious that no Zionist party must cooperate with Ra'am and the Joint List, replace the Knesset speaker using votes bought with cash, or establish a government dangerous to Israel," the party said.
The assertion that parliamentary seats were obtained through purchased votes has not been established by the investigation.
Hauser Tov, a political reporter for Israel's Haaretz newspaper, argued on X that the statement revealed Likud's immediate political objective: preventing the opposition from using its potential parliamentary majority to replace the Knesset speaker.
Israeli journalist Amir Tibon wrote on X, "The main reason they want to prevent this is so that the Knesset won't vote to establish a state commission of inquiry into October 7." He argued that such an investigation could examine Qatari involvement in Gaza and Israel.
Eisenkot responded to the allegations Thursday, after meeting with Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) Director David Zini. "Foreign involvement in Israel is unacceptable and profoundly serious, particularly when it involves a country that funds and supports Hamas," Eisenkot said. "It is serious when it occurs in the Prime Minister’s Office, and it is serious if it occurs in the electoral process."
He called on the Shin Bet to investigate the allegations thoroughly and take the strongest possible action against anyone found to have attempted to compromise the election's integrity.
Eisenkot also accused Netanyahu and his allies of conducting "an illegitimate influence operation targeting the Israeli public," claiming its purpose was to delay the publication of the results and undermine the legitimacy of the newly elected Knesset.
Israeli political commentator Amit Segal also cautioned against assuming the allegations would lead to the cancellation of election results.
"The likelihood of the entire election being invalidated is extremely slim, given the time constraints," Segal wrote on X. He suggested the developments could instead intensify discussions about a unity government or another election.
Meanwhile, Democrats party leader Yair Golan urged opposition leaders to move quickly toward forming a new government.
"The people have spoken. Sixty-seven seats demanded change," Golan wrote Thursday on X, adding that he intended to spend the day meeting with political partners and coalition negotiators. "I intend to leave no stone unturned, act in every possible way and do everything necessary to fulfill the voters' will," he added.
The comments underscored the central question emerging from the election: whether parties united in their opposition to Netanyahu can overcome their differences, particularly over cooperation with Arab lawmakers.
Could Trump help broker a unity government?
Another possibility is a national unity coalition involving Netanyahu's Likud and Eisenkot's Yashar party, potentially excluding the Arab parties and Netanyahu's far-right allies.
Such an arrangement could also align with the preferences of figures close to President Donald Trump, who publicly endorsed Netanyahu ahead of the election.
According to Ynet diplomatic correspondent Itamar Eichner, sources close to Trump said the president wants to ensure that far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir is excluded from the next Israeli government, with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich potentially excluded as well.
A separate Ynet report said Trump associates had contacted Israeli political figures to assess the prospects for a unity government and expressed a preference for a stable coalition without Ben-Gvir.
Trump himself has not publicly endorsed a specific unity arrangement.
Asked Wednesday by Axios whether he would become involved in efforts to establish a Netanyahu-led unity government, Trump said, "I will take a look."
A unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot would face substantial obstacles. Eisenkot repeatedly pledged during the campaign not to join a Netanyahu-led government, while Netanyahu's far-right partners have warned against efforts to exclude them.
The ultra-Orthodox parties present another potential route to a parliamentary majority. Netanyahu's projected 53 seats include 14 held by Shas and United Torah Judaism, which have traditionally aligned with him.
Those 14 seats, combined with Eisenkot's projected 48-seat opposition bloc, would mathematically produce a 62-seat majority. But such an arrangement would face major disagreements over military conscription, as Eisenkot has pledged to expand mandatory service to ultra-Orthodox men, while the religious parties have sought to preserve exemptions for yeshiva students.
Political divisions within Eisenkot's own bloc would present additional obstacles to such a coalition.
For now, the foreign interference allegations remain under investigation, while the election results continue to show Netanyahu's existing coalition without the parliamentary majority required to govern on its own.
He has also urged California to lower fuel prices by getting rid of high gas taxes and the costly "green energy" policies that add massive costs to household budgets without doing anything for the planet.
On housing, Hilton has urged California to build out, not up, returning to the single-family homes that people want — not ugly high-rises.
And Hilton has stood up to the madness on the transgender issue, defending the rights of girls in sports and the rights of parents to know what is going on with their children.
Despite the odds stacked against him, Hilton has worked tirelessly across the state, even going to Skid Row and "fentanyl alley" to show the consequences of decades of bad policy in Sacramento.
His opponent, Democrat Xavier Becerra, was nobody’s first choice in the primary. Even former Obama administration staffers were appalled that he might move ahead to the general election.
Close Obama advisor Susan Rice once called Becerra an idiot, a remark she did not deny even when backing her party’s nominee.
Becerra is simply an empty suit. He has failed upwards his entire political career.
Becerra was a do-nothing congressman in Washington. Then he became California’s attorney general when Kamala Harris left, despite his dormant law license. He was invisible as Joe Biden’s HHS secretary, and has no real achievements to speak of, despite decades of involvement in politics.
Businesses that started here are leaving the state, taking jobs with them. That’s especially true in Hollywood, which is losing tens of thousands of jobs.
For 16 years, Democrats have done whatever they wanted to in California, and the results are a disaster.
We have watched the California dream being trampled by the politics of extremism, envy and division. Our big cities have been trashed by rioters. And now socialists want to take over.
While our politicians lecture us about climate change, they allow hundreds of thousands of acres to burn in wildfires every year, erasing all the gains in emissions, and causing untold misery to tens of thousands of homeowners.
Fraud is rampant throughout our government programs, even as spending is out of control.
We’re updating this forecast to move South Carolina from Lean R to Toss-up.
As this week’s Power Rankings reported, Republicans already viewed this as an uncomfortably close race. That belief is now widely shared.
Tonight, the president is headed back there to help Sen. Darline Graham in the Upstate, where she underperformed in her primary runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman.
New polling has Democratic challenger Annie Andrews and Graham tied at 48%-48%.
The Senate is still a toss-up with six states to decide the majority. On a good night for the Democrats, their ceiling rises to 54 seats. A good night for the Republicans could see them retain control with up to 52 seats.
It seems like there are two electorates in these midterms.
The first is frustrated with President Trump and ready to reject Republicans. It includes growing numbers of independent, rural and Hispanic voters who say they’ll vote for a Democrat.
That’s what the latest round of House polling shows, including a survey last week that had Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot and Fox’s most recent national poll.
The second electorate is wavering on Republicans but won’t necessarily hand Democrats the Senate. These are the voters in the Midwest and a few other places. They say they prefer the Democrat or Republican in their states by a point or two at most.
That’s the right conclusion from most of the battleground Senate polling.
How could both things be true? In other words, if Democrats have such a wide lead in the House, won’t the Senate fall too?
Both are true, and a big lead in the House doesn’t necessarily translate to the Senate. These voters are all in the same electorate, and they only seem divorced from each other because the House and Senate maps are so far apart this year.
The president’s declining approval rating and Democratic advantages on the issues will likely deliver them the House and possibly by many seats.
Those advantages have also allowed the blue team to play in a lot of Senate races that Republicans thought were unreachable, but only to the point of making them battlegrounds.
The road to a Senate majority goes through several states that Trump won by 11 points or more. Democrats can win any of these races. If Republicans turn out and stay loyal to their party, the climb for the left will be steep.
That’s why the Senate is a toss-up. Voters could give Democrats a majority and maybe with several seats to spare. They could also let the Republicans keep control.
We’ll find out in seven days.
Democrats have strong advantages on most key issues
In his 11-year political career, President Trump has triumphed over almost all of the threats to his power. The exception was the coronavirus pandemic, which was the top issue for voters in the 2020 election and ushered in the Biden presidency.
It was also one of the few threats that Trump has faced from abroad.
This time, Trump and the Republicans face a new foreign opponent: Iran. The administration’s decision to start joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes against the nation in February has cast a shadow over the GOP.
First, it has impacted Trump’s approval rating, which will decide the fate of many congressional Republicans and has fallen since the war began. It was 44% in the last pre-war survey and sits at 36% now.
The war has also given Democrats advantages on the top issues. In Fox’s October survey, Iran played a role in four issues that more than two-thirds of voters said they were concerned about: inflation (85%), gas prices (83%), government leadership (79%) and the war in Iran itself (75%).
Most voters said they preferred the Democrats to handle those issues: 16 points on inflation, 12 points on gas prices, 11 points on leadership and 9 points on foreign policy.
Republicans are competitive on home turf
Still, voters are not convinced that the Senate should change hands.
That comes down to the territory. Trump won seven of these 10 battleground states in 2024 and six of them by double digits. That includes Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.
Democrats don’t need to win all of those states to take the Senate, but it’s hard to see how they get to 51 seats without at least two of them.
While former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads in Ohio, the other states are close. Turnout, a polling error in either direction, or both could decide them.
There are also a lot of undecided voters. In Alaska, Iowa and Kansas, three states with recent high-quality polling, an average of 10% of voters say they haven’t decided who they will support or won’t support the major candidates.
Any guess on how those voters will break at the ballot box is only a guess. All we know from prior results is that the overall electorate leans conservative, so the Democrats have the tougher assignment to bring them over to their side (or keep them at home).
There are far fewer undecided voters in Texas, where last week’s Fox News Poll showed a tied race at 49%-49%.
If Democrats only win two Trump-won battlegrounds, they’ll need to win three other races where former Vice President Harris delivered single-digit victories in 2024: Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Democrats are ahead in the latter two. Maine could go either way. While Democrats win its presidential races, it could just as easily be considered a Republican state when Susan Collins is on the ballot.
The final Fox News Power Rankings for 2026 feature three shifts in the Senate and 19 in the House. A tight gubernatorial race is also on the move.
Senate: Democrats are favored in 48 seats; Ohio moves to Lean D and South Carolina moves to Toss-up
Both parties are short of a majority in this forecast. Democrats are favored in 48 seats, and Republicans are ahead in 46 (they would control the Senate with 50 seats because the vice president breaks ties).
On a good night for Democrats, the party would win most or all the toss-ups, taking the majority with up to 54 seats. In that scenario, other competitive states would also come into focus, including one rated Lean R, and on a great Democratic night, two more rated Likely R.
A good night for the Republicans would see them simply hold on to most of the states they already have, up to a ceiling of 52 seats. The party also has opportunities to flip a couple of states, including Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Three states are moving in this forecast.
Ohio
In Ohio, Brown has enjoyed a lead in three Fox News polls this year, including last week’s survey, which had him five points ahead of Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted at 52%-47%.
Ohio voters are very familiar with Brown, having sent him to the Senate three times. That has made it hard for Husted to campaign on socialism and woke politics, themes that Republicans elsewhere see as their strongest cards to play.
Ohio moves from Toss-up to Lean D.
("Lean D" means the Democrat has an edge, but it’s still a highly competitive race. We define every ranking and the process for setting them on FoxNews.com.)
South Carolina
As this week’s Power Rankings previously reported, Republicans already viewed this as an uncomfortably close race. That belief is now widely shared.
Tonight, the president is headed back there to help Senator Graham in the Upstate, where she underperformed in her primary runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman.
South Carolina moves from Lean R to Toss-up.
Mississippi
Mississippi is a Republican stronghold, but Trump’s decision to rally there over other deep red states is a sign that the party thinks it’s competitive.
GOP Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom in a race where protein choice has become a breakout issue.
Mississippi moves from Solid R to Likely R.
House: The floor for Democrats ticks up four seats to 223
Democrats are still likely to flip the House this November, and in this forecast, they’re predicted to take at least 223 seats.
Since a good night for the Democrats would see them take most of the toss-up races, they could end up with as many as 240 seats.
(On a great Democratic night, the party would pick up most of the Lean R districts as well, taking them as high as 252 seats.)
Republicans have 195 seats in their columns. A good night for them would take that total up to around 212. That’s six short of a majority, but enough to make life difficult for the next Democratic House Speaker, who would have to balance the demands of the moderate and far-left wings of the party.
Nineteen more races have shifted in the Democrats’ direction this week, all on the same themes outlined in the last House update: national and district polling, top-of-the-ticket strength and rural voter erosion.
The earliest-closing districts on election night will give some sense of the House’s future. Keep an eye on Kentucky’s 6th district, which covers Lexington and a large central area of the state. Trump won here by 15 points in the last presidential election. Thanks to a combination of left-leaning college voters and farmers grappling with higher costs, it looks close this cycle. The district moves from Lean R to Toss-up.
Governor: Ad or no ad, the Ohio governor’s race moves to Lean D
Finally, Ohio’s gubernatorial race is also on the move. The campaign between Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy was the top story in politics last week after Ramaswamy ran an ad featuring Acton’s mother, who called her daughter a liar.
Acton has been estranged from her mother since age 12, when she says she and her brother left her family home because her mother’s husband was sexually abusing her. Acton’s brother now appears in a response ad discussing their family history.
This ratings change is less about the response to the ad (Ramaswamy and President Trump are supportive of the commercial; most others, including Husted and Governor Mike DeWine, are against it) than it is about the fact that the Ramaswamy campaign felt the need to run it.
While Ramaswamy sat only two points behind Acton in last week’s Fox poll, he’s an average of seven points behind in other high-quality polls since September.
The businessman and onetime presidential hopeful has struggled in favorability ratings throughout his political career. This ad is unlikely to help.
The Ohio governor’s race moves from Toss-up to Lean D.
Fox News’ special coverage of the 2026 midterm elections begins at 6 p.m. ET next Tuesday, November 3, anchored by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. Tune in for the latest race calls and projections for control of the House and Senate from the Fox News Decision Desk.
In the wake of a New York Times report detailing an alleged Democrat-linked election scheme that involved the recruitment of a candidate with nearly the exact same name as an incumbent GOP senator, Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy announced that he was ordering a probe into the matter.
"Today’s New York Times reporting reveals disturbing new evidence of an organized effort to manipulate Alaska’s elections by recruiting candidates — including one with the same name as an incumbent U.S. Senator — to deliberately confuse voters and misdirect their votes. The Alaska Division of Elections investigated these very concerns in June of this year. The new reporting substantially supports the Division’s findings," Dunleavy noted in a post on X.
"I am therefore directing the Department of Public Safety to investigate whether this scheme violated Alaska’s laws and whether criminal charges or civil action are warranted. The evidence will determine what happens next," the GOP governor continued.
"Alaskans have a fundamental right to vote for the candidate they actually intend to support. Deliberately tricking voters into casting their ballots for someone else strikes at the integrity of our elections. Anyone or any organization found to have broken the law must be held accountable," he added.
While incumbent Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan is one of the candidates on the ballot in Alaska's ranked-choice U.S. Senate voting contest, there is another candidate on the same ballot named Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr., a retired teacher who is listed without party affiliation.
According to the paper's article, titled "Inside Democrats’ Secret Effort to Stack Alaska’s Ballot," the Times found "that not only did Ms. Peltola’s team work with people trying to recruit Mr. Sullivan to run for Senate, but the effort was much broader. The group worked to coax other would-be spoilers into the race, to dilute the incumbent’s support and help catapult the Democrat to victory."
On Oct. 22, the DOJ filed a federal lawsuit seeking to delay certification if Sen. Dan S. Sullivan loses and votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan could have changed the result, pending an investigation into whether voters mistakenly selected the wrong candidate.
In an interview with Sean Hannity on Wednesday night, Sen. Dan Sullivan said, "This is what happens when you have a candidate like Peltola, far left, who's got nothing to run on. I have a much stronger record we're running. We have a vision for Alaskans that the Alaskan people want, and when they recognize that, they're like, ‘shoot, I guess we got to cheat.’
"What's remarkable here is that even today, she has not apologized. Even today, she's kind of playing as if nothing happened," Sen. Sullivan added.
"The Alaskans for Mary campaign has no involvement with either Sullivan campaign and did not recruit any candidates into the race," the Peltola campaign asserted in a statement to the Times.
With less than a week until Election Day, both parties are making a final push to shape the fight for control of Congress.
President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance are rallying Republicans across the country, while former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris are campaigning for Democrats.
The map traces their campaign stops so far this month, with states visited by both sides shaded gray.
Trump has been on the campaign trail nearly every day this month, visiting states from Oklahoma to Florida.
He said in early October he planned to hold five to seven rallies a week, a pace he maintained last week with stops in Corinth, Mississippi; Corpus Christi and Lubbock, Texas; and Chillicothe, Ohio.
His schedule continues this week, with rallies planned in South Carolina, Florida, Kansas and Iowa.
The map tracks campaign travel, not a ranking of the most competitive races. Still, the stops show both parties deploying high-profile surrogates in states where control of Congress could be decided.
Ohio, Texas and Iowa have competitive Senate contests. Recent Cook Political Report polling showed Democratic candidates narrowly ahead in all three, while Michigan is also a key Senate battleground.
Obama and Harris have campaigned in several states with closely watched contests. Obama stumped in Ohio and Michigan, while Harris made recent stops in Nevada, Mississippi and New Hampshire to support Democratic candidates.
Their visits show Democrats leaning on familiar national figures to boost candidates ahead of Election Day.
Fox News’ recent report on how a Democratic majority could expose the limits of the progressive agenda identifies the tension at the center of the next Congress: Democrats could win the House with a coalition of progressive members and moderates elected in competitive districts, then struggle to agree on what their majority should do. Fox’s House rankings also show how narrow that majority could be, while its Senate analysis describes a chamber where a 50-50 split would leave Republicans with the vice president’s tiebreaking vote.
For Republicans, the strategic task is clear: hold the Senate, keep House losses as small as possible and make the case for governing around voters’ priorities.
A Democratic House would have the authority to investigate the administration. Oversight is a legitimate responsibility, but if Democratic leaders make investigations the organizing principle of their majority, hearings, subpoenas and document disputes could consume the calendar and political attention that Congress needs to address the cost of living, energy prices, border security and national defense.
That choice could also deepen divisions inside the Democratic caucus. In a House majority measured by only a few seats, a small group of members can gain leverage over leadership votes, procedural decisions and the price of passing legislation. Fox's reporting describes how Democratic leaders are already navigating progressive demands alongside the concerns of members from more competitive districts.
That is where members of the Democratic Socialists of America, along with other lawmakers aligned with its priorities, could become the party’s outliers. They would not control the entire caucus, but could have an outsized role in deciding the legislative schedule. When the margin is razor-thin, even a handful of members can press leadership for commitments on policy or use a close vote to extract concessions. If Democrats do not go far enough for them, they could slow or block their own party’s agenda.
Republicans should understand the opportunity. The DSA could dictate key decisions in a Democratic House. The risk for Democratic leaders is a recurring internal negotiation that makes compromise harder and gives moderates another reason to hesitate. If progressives demand more than swing-district members can defend, Republicans can argue that Democratic leaders are spending their majority on intraparty disputes instead of practical results. How the tables would have turned.
Keeping the Senate matters for the same reason. A Republican Senate would preserve a check on the House majority, shape judicial and executive confirmations and give bipartisan proposals a place to move if members in both parties are willing to negotiate. A tie would still leave Republicans with effective control through the vice president’s tie-breaking vote. That would not let Republicans pass major legislation on their own. Most bills would still require cooperation across chambers, and many would need broad support in the Senate. But it would keep the chamber from becoming an extension of the House Democratic agenda.
In the campaign’s final days, Republicans should make the case that pocketbook issues require a Congress focused on governing, not one consumed by investigations or pulled toward the loudest voices in either party. The objective is to keep the House margin close enough that Democrats must answer to their moderates, while retaining a Republican Senate as a check and a forum for bipartisan dealmaking.
Voters should see the stakes clearly: a narrowly divided House, a Senate no faction can dominate, and a Democratic caucus pulled between progressives and members elected in competitive districts. Republicans can close by promising what voters want from Congress: serious debate and workable solutions. If we hold the Senate and limit our House losses, divided government does not have to mean gridlock.
Which candidates for Senate are in a better position to help their state and, by extension, their citizens in the six years ahead?
This is the question voters in every state with a contested Senate seat should ask themselves before they vote between now and the close of voting Tuesday.
Example number one is Maine, where Senator Susan Collins is matched against Troy Jackson. Jackson is the man picked by Maine’s Democratic Party — not the voters — after Graham Platner crashed, burned and withdrew from the race on July 10. The party’s state committee picked Jackson even though he had finished third in the Democratic governor’s primary the same day Platner won his primary. Polls rate the Maine race as a toss-up, but polls at the close in 2020 had Collins behind by at least four percentage points, and she in fact won by more than 8%.
Maine voters are unlikely to surrender the seniority Collins holds — she is chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee — for a rookie who would rank tied for last in the currency that matters the most in the Senate: the incumbent’s years served in the body. Add to that reality the fact that every Mainer seems to know the senator at least in passing and that communities across the state have benefited from the influence she has accumulated over more than 10,000 consecutive roll call votes, and Collins is poised to win. Again.
In South Carolina, Sen. Darline Graham has been serving since her brother Lindsey died. That gives her a leg up on new senators elected this year, and in a state that went for Donald Trump by 18% in 2024, it’s very likely Graham will return for a full six-year term.
Ohio’s incumbent Sen. Jon Husted has been in the Senate since January 2025. As a member of the majority, he’s in a position to deliver more for the Buckeye State than the recycled Democrat Sherrod Brown, who was ousted by Ohio voters two years ago after collecting government paychecks for almost 50 years. Brown’s very liberal career lost touch with an Ohio electorate that went for Trump in 2024 by more than 11 points. Husted is the best candidate to deliver for Ohio.
In Michigan, either Republican Mike Rogers or Democrat Abdul El-Sayed would be a freshman senator, but El-Sayed’s white-hot radicalism will put him in a corner of the Senate that is empty except for Bernie Sanders. Rogers, by contrast, is a mainstream, moderate Republican with 14 years of experience in the House. Expect Rogers to receive a warm welcome from the Senate GOP, which is eyeing Michigan as a battleground state in the 2028 presidential election.
There’s a reason why most contenders for the GOP nomination have been to Michigan to lend Rogers a hand. Pennsylvania’s Senator Dave McCormick was in the Wolverine State this week, and not surprisingly, McCormick’s name is in the mix for 2028.
That's also true for Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who seems to have been everywhere this election cycle helping everyone (as a prospective candidate for the presidency does). Cruz was in Alaska on October 17 to give an assist to Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is a two-term incumbent with enormous ability to deliver for Alaskans. Democratic nominee Mary Peltola, by contrast, would be a freshman in the minority party if, as I expect, the GOP retains the majority. That’s a terrible trade and one that it is doubtful most Alaskans want to make.
President Trump’s campaign trip to Alaska — rare for a sitting president — was intended to juice turnout there and to focus attention on the dirty tricks at work up north. A second "decoy" Dan Sullivan was planted on the four-choice ballot in the hopes of draining even a few votes from the real Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s weird ranked-choice voting scheme.
The real Dan Sullivan, the retired Marine Corps colonel on the Armed Services Committee with great seniority, is asking all voters, "Don’t rank Mary," to counteract the trickery. The electorate’s about a quarter of a million people. It’s a savvy bunch because the federal government matters so much in our 49th state. Expect the real Sen. Dan Sullivan to pull through.
President Trump won Alaska by more than 13% in 2024. He also won Texas and Iowa by more than 13%, which tells us that while Sen. Sullivan’s seniority will help him, even first-time candidates Ken Paxton in Texas and Ashley Hinson in Iowa should prevail against Democratic first-time nominees in both states, even in the "tough environment" of a president’s sixth year in office. President Trump has been to both states this week to energize the base. Whatever the polls say — and polls say both races are toss-ups — Paxton and Hinson appear to be in good shape and rising in the polls, and both would be joining a majority in the Senate, not the minority with vastly diminished powers.
Kansas went for Donald Trump by more than 16% two years ago. Its farmers have been hit hard by the high cost of diesel, but they know Sen. Roger Marshall has the seniority to help on the "Ag Bill" and deliver relief for the state. The nice pastor running against the nice Dr. Marshall doesn’t. The same is true for Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska.
Which brings us finally to Minnesota, which is a deep blue state but one that nominated a far-far-to-the-left Democratic candidate in Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, whose eight years in that state job coincided with the massive fraud scandals in Minnesota and soaring violence among gangs of Somali-American youths. The Democratic Farmer-Labor Party decided to go way left even as the GOP nominated the sparkling political "Rookie of the Year" in Michele Tafoya.
Michigan might have the most-watched race because there’s never been an extremist like El-Sayed so close to winning a Senate race before, but the biggest upset could come in Minnesota, with Gopher State voters returning to the tradition of sending their occasional Republican to the Senate.
American polling is as broken as Israeli polling, which just face-planted in Israel’s elections Tuesday. (Prime Minister Netanyahu emerged with the largest party and the largest coalition, which very few, if any, major polls saw coming.) Trusting polls to place bets on the prediction markets for American Senate races is as foolish as using the Farmers’ Almanac to plan your vacation in an El Niño year.
The enormous advantage of seniority plus the record amount and pace of campaigning by President Trump don’t combine to leave the GOP anxiety-free. But Republicans surely don’t take their cues from legacy media and pollsters, which are, again, almost all openly tilted toward Democrats. The vote will be intensely interesting, but if "toss-ups" turn out to be blowouts in red states, don’t be surprised.
Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, told Fox News that Democrats will do "anything" to gain power while addressing reports that the campaign of his Democratic challenger Mary Peltola secretly participated in a yearlong process to recruit people with his name to run in the Alaska U.S. Senate race.
The New York Times reported Wednesday that Peltola’s campaign, as well as senior aides at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, carried out the alleged election scheme in hopes that voters would be confused by two Dan Sullivans and therefore draw support from the incumbent Republican senator.
"This is a scandal at the highest order," Sen. Sullivan said during an interview on "Hannity" Wednesday.
"She and her team, and at the highest levels of the DSCC, spent over a year scheming in a secret operation to trick Alaskans to get them to throw away their vote," Sullivan said. "It's remarkable. The Democrats will do anything to gain power."
The Justice Department is moving to delay certification of Alaska’s U.S. Senate election results since two individuals by the name of Dan Sullivan appear alongside each other on the ballot. Listed on the ballot as "Sullivan, Dan S.," is the state’s incumbent U.S. senator, while "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr.," is a retired schoolteacher.
"They've been lying for almost a year about it, and now they're caught," Sullivan told Fox News host Sean Hannity.
Peltola has dismissed reports of the alleged election scheme as "just another distraction," arguing that The New York Times’ report was solely purposed to "sell newspapers."
Her campaign also continues to assert innocence, previously telling Fox News in part that the Alaskans for Mary campaign "has no involvement with either Sullivan campaign."
Republican Sen. Sullivan called out what he described as Peltola’s hypocrisy, saying the alleged election scheme shows her "total contempt" for the people of Alaska.
"She's run a campaign about supposed corruption. She's the corrupt one working with D.C. insiders to trick Alaskans," he said.
"[Peltola and the DSCC] think so little of Alaskans that they thought they can trick them," he added.
The Alaska senator argued that Peltola made a concerted effort to trick voters with another Dan Sullivan because her campaign had "nothing to run on."
"This is what happens when you have a candidate like Peltola — far-left — who's got nothing to run on," Sullivan said. "I have a much stronger record … We have a vision for Alaskans that the Alaskan people want, and when they recognize that, they're like, 'Shoot, I guess we've got to cheat.’"
Sullivan also noted that the alleged ballot scheme does not just apply to Alaska, but to the entire country as the state’s Senate race holds significant power in determining which party will hold a majority in the Senate.
"This goes to the highest levels of the government," he said on "Hannity." "The seat in Alaska could determine who controls the United States Senate. This isn't just about Alaska — this is about America."
Federal prosecutors are conducting an "aggressive criminal investigation" into how the second Sullivan secured a spot on Alaska's ballot, two sources familiar with the matter told Fox News.
Sullivan told Hannity he will do his best to inform every single Alaskan of the scheme.
"We're going to make sure every single Alaskan knows about this," Sullivan said.
"We are campaigning 24/7, and we're telling every Alaskan, ‘Don't let your vote be stolen.’"
Fox News Digital reached out to the Peltola campaign for comment.
Fox News Digital's Robert Schmad and Olivia Palombo contributed to this report.
TEL AVIV, Israel — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political bloc gained ground Wednesday morning as Israel counted votes from its first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas massacre, but remained short of the majority needed to form a government, leaving the country facing another potential political deadlock.
With approximately 70% of votes counted, Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc stood at 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, compared with 47 for the main opposition and 19 for Arab parties, according to partial election results reported by Israeli media. Netanyahu's Likud led with 27 seats, while former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party held 20.
As both Netanyahu and Eisenkot claimed victory Tuesday night, Israelis told Fox News Digital that although they had expected a tight race, the shifting numbers and uncertainty over who could form a government had left many confused about what comes next.
Despite Netanyahu's lead, the parties outside his governing bloc collectively held 66 seats, a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, creating a potential path for the opposition to challenge his leadership if it can secure sufficient cooperation from Arab lawmakers.
The results marked a shift from Tuesday night's initial exit polls, which prompted celebrations at Eisenkot's campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv. Eisenkot called on Netanyahu to accept the results and step aside, while Netanyahu declared later in the night from his headquarters in Jerusalem that Likud had emerged as the country's largest party and urged the formation of a strong right-wing government.
President Donald Trump took credit Wednesday morning for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's stronger-than-expected election performance, suggesting his endorsement helped shift the momentum of the race.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump shared a statement from Irving C. Schwartz, who wrote, "When President Trump endorsed Bibi Netanyahu, the whole tide turned, and now, rather than a decisive defeat for a Great Prime Minister, it looks like a big come-from-behind stalemate, or even a WIN for Netanyahu."
Later, speaking to reporters near Air Force One, Trump said, "I heard the poll numbers were wrong ... the exit polls; I heard he [Netanyahu] did very well. It was pretty close, but very well. When the endorsement went out, it helped him a lot."
"It's a little bit early, but I'm hearing in Israel, top people say, 'Wow! He did a lot better than people thought.' It's looking like maybe a stalemate or a win," Trump added.
The growing influence of Arab parties has emerged as one of the most consequential factors in determining Israel's next government.
According to the partial results, the Joint List held 13 seats and Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, held six, giving Arab parties a combined 19 seats.
Abbas signaled openness to political negotiations, saying figures from both sides of Israel's political divide had approached him.
"Everyone is talking to us, not just the change bloc," Abbas told Israel's Channel 12.
Democrats leader Yair Golan went further, openly calling for the formation of a new government in cooperation with Arab parties. "Netanyahu lost. I know how to count to 120–65 is greater than 55. That's how Israeli democracy works. Period," Golan wrote on X. Golan also rejected Netanyahu's distinction between Jewish and Arab political support, arguing that every Israeli citizen's vote should carry equal weight. "The vote of an Israeli citizen in Tira is worth exactly the same as the vote of an Israeli citizen in Givat Shmuel," he wrote.
Golan's figures reflected an earlier stage of the count, but his argument highlighted an emerging disagreement within the opposition over whether to include Arab parties in the next government.
Eisenkot has previously expressed opposition to including Ra'am in his coalition, while Netanyahu has warned against any government dependent on Arab parties.
Netanyahu could attempt to expand his current coalition by winning support from at least seven lawmakers outside his right-wing and religious bloc, which would bring him to the 61 seats needed for a conventional parliamentary majority.
Alternatively, Eisenkot could seek enough parliamentary recommendations, potentially including those of Arab parties, to persuade President Isaac Herzog to give him the first opportunity to form a government.
Those recommendations would not necessarily require Arab parties to join a future coalition. However, Eisenkot would still need enough parliamentary support to secure a confidence vote.
A third possibility is another deadlock, with neither leader able to form a government and Israel potentially facing another election.
The final outcome remains uncertain as vote counting continues, including ballots cast by soldiers and other voters using special voting procedures.
Official results are scheduled for Nov. 4, after which Herzog will consult with parliamentary factions and select a lawmaker to attempt to form the next government.
TEL AVIV, Israel — Updated Israeli exit polls early Wednesday showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gaining ground against his political rivals but still falling short of a parliamentary majority, leaving the country facing a possible political deadlock despite a combined majority of seats projected for parties outside his governing bloc.
An updated Channel 12 exit poll at 3:30 a.m. (Israel time) projected 53 seats for Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc, compared with 49 for the main opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot and another 19 for Arab parties. Together, the opposition and Arab factions would hold 68 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, although they remain divided over forming a government together.
Netanyahu struck a defiant tone in his first election-night speech at Likud headquarters in Jerusalem, declaring that his party had emerged as the largest in Israel and calling for the formation of a strong right-wing government.
"We are still waiting for the actual results, which we will receive over the next day or two," Netanyahu told supporters. "Two things have become clear. The first is unequivocal: Likud is the largest party in Israel."
"We must establish a strong national right-wing government," he added, warning against a government dependent on Arab parties, which he accused of opposing Israel's existence.
His remarks came hours after Eisenkot took the stage at his campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv, where supporters celebrated earlier projections showing the opposition ahead. Eisenkot called on Netanyahu to accept the results and step aside, but the updated numbers underscored how uncertain the race remains. Netanyahu also said Israel faced a "once-in-a-lifetime historic opportunity" with Trump to eliminate the existential threat from Iran.
The competing speeches highlighted the central question emerging from the election: Who will be given the first opportunity to form a government? If Eisenkot can secure recommendations from at least 61 lawmakers, potentially including Arab parties, he could receive the first mandate despite Netanyahu's Likud emerging as the largest individual party. But that would not guarantee he could assemble a governing coalition. For Netanyahu, the election remains a waiting game. Even without a majority, he could still be tasked with forming a government — or get another opportunity if Eisenkot's efforts fail — leaving Israel facing weeks of political negotiations.
Israelis turned out in exceptionally high numbers Tuesday for the country’s first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas massacre, with initial exit polls showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud emerging as the largest party but his governing coalition falling short of a parliamentary majority, potentially opening the door to a change in leadership.
Netanyahu fights for political future as Israel heads to polls with Iran threat looming
The results are preliminary projections, not an official vote count, and could change as ballots are tallied in the coming days.
The election followed an extraordinary day at polling stations across Israel, with long lines and voter participation reaching levels not seen in decades.
Israeli voter turnout surged to a historic high, with 77.7% of eligible voters casting their ballots by the time the polls closed, according to Israel's Central Elections Committee. The figure marked the highest turnout recorded since 1999, underscoring the intensity of the country's national election.
The unusually high participation prompted election officials to streamline voting procedures and assure voters that anyone arriving at a polling station before the 10 p.m. deadline would be allowed to cast a ballot.
The vote was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership following three years of war and continuing questions about responsibility for the security failures that allowed Hamas terrorists to kill approximately 1,200 people and abduct 251 others on Oct. 7, 2023.
Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, campaigned on his record of confronting Iran and its regional proxies, highlighting Israel's military achievements and his relationship with President Donald Trump. His opponents accused him of failing to accept responsibility for the October 7 security failures and opposed his government's approach to investigating the failures that preceded the massacre.
Netanyahu's Likud party prepared hundreds of targeted campaign videos and social media messages, making digital outreach a central part of its last-minute election strategy.
Eisenkot's campaign pushed supporters to rally behind Yashar as the leading alternative to Likud, while Bennett traveled between cities and engaged voters directly and through WhatsApp conversations.
The key question now is which candidate can secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers when President Isaac Herzog consults with the newly elected parliamentary factions. If Eisenkot can obtain those recommendations, including from Arab parties, he would have a strong claim to receive the first opportunity to form a government, even though Netanyahu’s Likud is projected to remain the largest individual party. Crucially, Arab parties could recommend Eisenkot without formally joining his governing coalition. However, the final decision rests with Herzog, who is tasked with selecting the lawmaker he believes has the best chance of forming a government. Securing the first mandate would not guarantee Eisenkot could assemble a governing majority, leaving the possibility of another political deadlock.
The campaign's closing hours also featured personal appeals, phone calls to undecided voters and aggressive turnout operations across the political spectrum.
The final days were particularly important because a relatively small share of voters remained undecided about which party to support.
A Times of Israel poll published five days before the election found that 87% of respondents had already made their final choice, while 2.4% remained undecided between the pro and anti-Netanyahu political blocs.
Other surveys suggested a larger pool of undecided voters, although many were choosing between parties within the same political camp rather than switching sides.
That distinction could prove decisive in Israel's parliamentary system, where political parties need at least 3.25% of valid votes to enter the 120-seat Knesset.
Even a slight change in the vote share of smaller parties could shift several parliamentary seats and determine whether either camp has a realistic path to power.
Despite the exit poll projections, the identity of Israel's next prime minister may remain uncertain for weeks.
Unlike in the United States, Israelis vote for political parties rather than directly electing their head of government.
The 120 seats in parliament are allocated proportionally, and parties must secure at least 3.25% of valid votes to win representation.
Once the final results are certified, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult with the newly elected political factions and select the lawmaker he believes has the strongest chance of forming a government.
TEL AVIV, ISRAEL — Campaign banners bearing the faces of Israel's political leaders cover buildings and roadsides, while in homes, coffee shops and family gatherings, the same question dominates conversations: Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remain in power?
With Israelis heading to the polls Tuesday, the country is bracing for a closely contested election that could end in another political deadlock. But this vote is unlike any other in Israel's recent history.
For many Israelis, the election has become a referendum on accountability for the failures that allowed Hamas terrorists to carry out the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre — the deadliest attack in Israel's history.
Netanyahu, who has dominated Israeli politics for decades, has resisted calls to accept personal responsibility for the security failures and establish an independent state commission of inquiry. His government instead sought a politically appointed investigation, a proposal fiercely opposed by many bereaved families.
Yet Israel's divisions began long before Oct. 7.
In the months preceding the attacks, hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets to protest Netanyahu's proposed judicial overhaul, which critics argued would undermine the country's democracy. The confrontation spilled into the military, where reservists threatened to suspend volunteer service, raising alarms about Israel's preparedness. Some critics have argued that the turmoil projected weakness to the country's enemies, although the extent to which it influenced Hamas's decision to attack remains disputed.
Three years after the massacre, those divisions have only deepened, transforming Tuesday's vote into something intensely personal. Political allegiances have strained friendships and divided families, with much of the national debate reduced to a single question: Are you for Netanyahu, widely known as "Bibi," or against him?
For some families who lost loved ones on Oct. 7, the answer is painfully clear.
Shir Shai, whose brother Yaron Shai, an Israeli soldier, was killed battling Hamas terrorists that day, delivered a stark message to those considering another vote for Netanyahu.
"If you nevertheless decide to vote again for the man who brought disaster upon us and his accomplices, I have one personal request: Don't come here anymore," Shai said over her brother's grave in his memorial ceremony on October 7.
"You still have 20 days to be part of the process of putting things right. But if you choose to perpetuate the failure rather than honor the fallen, it would be better if you stayed home next year," she added.
Yet other bereaved families have reached the opposite conclusion, crediting Netanyahu with standing firm through years of war on multiple fronts and arguing that Israel's military and intelligence establishment bears the principal responsibility for failing to anticipate the Hamas assault.
The deeply polarized atmosphere has been intensified by an increasingly bitter campaign. Just two days before the election, Netanyahu shared an AI-generated image depicting a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv, warning of the existential threat posed by Iran if the country elects a leader unable to confront Tehran.
Concerns now extend beyond the election results themselves. Israeli police are preparing for possible unrest after the polls close, while experts have warned about the potential for disputes over the legitimacy of the results — including an extreme scenario resembling the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.
With the opposition united in its ambition to replace Netanyahu but divided over how to govern afterward, neither political bloc is assured of a parliamentary majority and the final outcome could take weeks to determine.
Israelis will vote Tuesday, Oct. 27, with most polling stations opening at 7 a.m. and closing at 10 p.m. local time.
Election Day is a national holiday in Israel, giving voters the opportunity to cast their ballots. Some smaller communities and special polling locations operate on different schedules.
Eligible voters must be Israeli citizens at least 18 years old and generally vote at their assigned polling station. Most Israelis living abroad cannot vote remotely, although exceptions apply to certain official representatives overseas.
How does Israel's election system work?
Israel has a parliamentary system in which voters select a political party rather than an individual candidate for prime minister.
The country's parliament, known as the Knesset, has 120 seats, distributed through a system of nationwide proportional representation.
Each party submits a ranked list of candidates, and the number of seats it receives depends on its share of the national vote.
To enter parliament, a party must win at least 3.25% of the valid votes. Parties falling below that threshold receive no seats, potentially changing the balance between rival political blocs.
Israel's major television networks are expected to release exit polls immediately after voting ends at 10 p.m. Tuesday (4 p.m. EST).
Those projections will provide the first indication of how many seats each party may win and whether Netanyahu or his rivals appear better positioned to assemble a coalition.
But exit polls are not official results, and even small differences in the final vote could determine whether parties cross the electoral threshold.
Actual vote counts will emerge as ballots are counted, with preliminary results developing after polls close and over the following days.
Israel's Central Elections Committee has scheduled the publication of official results for Wednesday, Nov. 4, eight days after the election.
Who are the main candidates?
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 77, leads the conservative right-wing Likud party and is seeking to extend his record tenure as Israel's longest-serving prime minister.
His main challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, 66, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces who leads the centrist Yashar party and has positioned himself as an alternative to Netanyahu's leadership.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, 54, is also seeking a political comeback, running on a joint ticket with former Prime Minister Yair Lapid.
Other significant political figures include former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Democrats leader Yair Golan and Netanyahu's right-wing populist allies Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Arab political parties, including Ra'am and the Joint List, could also play a crucial role in determining the final parliamentary balance.
How many seats does a party need to win?
The key number in Israeli politics is 61 — a majority of the 120-seat Knesset.
No single Israeli party has ever won enough seats to control parliament alone, meaning parties generally need to form coalitions with other political factions.
This means the party that wins the most seats does not automatically get to lead the government.
Instead, the decisive question is which political leader can secure enough parliamentary support to govern.
How is Israel's next prime minister chosen?
Once the official results are published, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult representatives of the newly elected parliamentary factions.
Within seven days, the president must assign a member of the Knesset the task of forming a government.
The president generally selects the politician considered most likely to assemble a governing coalition, who is not necessarily the leader of the largest party.
That candidate initially has 28 days to reach agreements with other parties, with the possibility of an extension of up to 14 additional days.
The proposed government must then win a confidence vote in the Knesset before taking office.
What happens if nobody can form a government?
If the first candidate fails, the president can ask another lawmaker to attempt to form a government, giving that person 28 days without an extension.
If that effort also fails, a majority of 61 lawmakers can request that another candidate be given 14 days to try.
If no government emerges, Israel could face another national election.
Coalition negotiations can take weeks or months. According to the Israel Democracy Institute, the process of forming an Israeli government has historically taken between 20 and 100 days.
Until a new government is sworn in, the outgoing government remains in office.
Why is this election particularly consequential?
Tuesday's vote is the first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks, which triggered the war in Gaza and raised profound questions about Israel's security leadership.
Beyond Netanyahu's political future, the next government will face decisions over Israel's national security, the future of Gaza, military conscription, relations with the United States and the country's regional diplomatic relationships.
With pre-election polling showing no clear path to a parliamentary majority for either major political bloc, the contest could remain unresolved long after Tuesday's votes are counted.
Polling ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 election projects that National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit Party will win between seven and ten seats in the 120-member Knesset, potentially making any future government led by Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party contingent on his support and positioning him to secure senior ministerial portfolios.
His political rise mirrors a broader trend across Europe and the West, where parties such as Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella's National Rally in France, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, Australia's One Nation leader, Pauline Hanson, Italy’s Matteo Salvini and Germany's Alice Weidel of the AfD have all gained ground on traditional conservative political parties.
The highly controversial Ben-Gvir, as national security minister, oversees the ministry responsible for internal security, including the Israel Police, Israel Prison Service and civilian firearms licensing.
"I always say that Minister Ben-Gvir, if he were in America, he would just be called a Texan," Yishai Fleisher, international spokesman for the Jewish community of Hebron and a candidate ranked No. 12 on the Otzma Yehudit list, told Fox News Digital.
In a video interview with Fox News Digital, Fleisher continued, "Meaning law and order, the death penalty for murderers, tough conditions for jihadists in our prisons and gun rights for the average Jewish person to be able to defend themselves in our national state. That’s what Itamar Ben-Gvir stands for," he added.
Fleisher said that mass immigration had fueled Islamist extremism and unrest in parts of Europe, saying Israelis want to avoid similar developments.
"There is a jihadist takeover that has come in through immigration, and now the streets of Paris are burning, and the people of Belgium and the U.K. want their countries back," Fleisher said. "In Israel, we don’t want to see Tel Aviv burning," prompting politicians to embrace what are known in the United States as "law-and-order" and "tough-on-crime" candidates.
FORMER IDF CHIEF GADI EISENKOT EMERGES AS NETANYAHU’S LEADING ELECTION CHALLENGER Former Israeli Ambassador to Washington Danny Ayalon said that Ben-Gvir had missed an opportunity to change course despite his lack of military service and past conviction, arguing that his tenure had instead had a damaging impact, including on Israel’s diplomatic standing.
"Ben-Gvir spoke in a way that turned the entire world against Israel, portraying it as a racist country by making statements that made Israel a pariah state," Ayalon said.
Fleisher praised Ben-Gvir, who he said has cracked down on protection rackets in southern Israel and made significant progress toward what he described as greater equality for Jews on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, Judaism’s holiest site.
"Minister Ben-Gvir was an activist from a very young age. He saw the dangers and evils of the Oslo process with the Palestinians and tried to stop it. He was arrested and stopped many times because of that, and he faced the court many times. It was then-Chief Justice Aharon Barak who once told him, ‘Why don’t you go study to be a lawyer?’" Fleisher said.
Ben-Gvir, who studied law, became active in public and political affairs and was first elected to the Knesset in 2021. Following the 2022 elections, he was appointed minister of national security by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
His many critics have taken issue with his firebrand style and what many view as a lack of political correctness. Ambassador Ayalon, a former deputy foreign minister, told Fox News Digital that he also viewed Ben-Gvir’s performance as national security minister negatively.
"During his tenure, Israel has become less secure internally because crime is rising. Many young people believed in the last election that he would bring governability and authority to areas such as the Negev and the Galilee, on the outskirts of the country, where there is almost no law," Ayalon said.
In 2007, Ben-Gvir was convicted of supporting a terrorist organization and inciting racism.
His campaign told Fox News Digital that the conviction stemmed from displaying a sticker of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane, whose Kach party was outlawed in 1994, and reflected his support for a Jewish nationalist movement.
"As a young man, Minister Ben-Gvir was an intense Jewish nationalist. He has said many times, publicly, that he has matured since then and moved on from those positions."
Recent posts on Ben-Gvir’s social media accounts, along with statements issued through Netanyahu’s and Likud’s official channels, have raised questions about whether the two remain fully aligned.
On Oct. 15, Ben-Gvir shared a Hebrew-language media report quoting Netanyahu as saying that he would not serve again as national security minister. In response, Ben-Gvir wrote: "Dear Prime Minister, only the people will decide. Ben Gvir is strong, Israel is strong!"
Last Wednesday, Netanyahu's Likud party appeared to reverse course, posting a message on its official WhatsApp channel stating: "Ben-Gvir is a senior minister in our government, and he will remain so in the next government — provided that the bloc consisting of the Left and Arab parties does not win."
Despite the public statements, Ayalon said Netanyahu could opt not to include Ben-Gvir in the next government, even if it meant forming an alliance with opposition parties such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar.
"Netanyahu is brilliant. He kept Ben-Gvir because it suited him. If he could, he would get rid of him in a minute. Bibi is capable of changing his mind on a dime," Ayalon said.
Fleisher credited Ben-Gvir with tripling the number of personal firearms and firearms licenses issued to Israelis over four years, establishing 1,000 rapid-response teams, overhauling the prison system and demolishing 9,000 illegally built homes, particularly in the Negev.
In March, the Knesset approved a death-penalty law sponsored by Otzma Yehudit and other lawmakers, a measure Ben-Gvir has strongly championed.
"No more hotel-like conditions in our prisons. You’ll know you are being punished for your crime, and these simple policies ultimately deter jihadism," Fleisher told Fox News Digital.
"They understand that he represents a full-throated pushback against the jihadist takeover of our land. Ben-Gvir also represents a strong Jewish identity, strong policies and strong laws to ensure that we don’t lose control of our country," he said.
The latest polls show Netanyahu’s bloc slightly behind the opposition, led by Yashar party chief Gadi Eisenkot, but neither side has a clear path to the 61 seats needed for a governing majority.
JERUSALEM — Israel’s high-stakes election on Oct. 27 pits the longest serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, against the highly decorated retired Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot. While fairly new to politics, Eisenkot has an impressive resume that could help him become the Jewish state's next leader.
According to a number of polls, Eisenkot's centrist political party, Yashar, has a narrow lead over Netanyahu's Likud. To form a government, Yashar or Likud will need to cobble together a 61-seat majority of parties to be able to form a new coalition government.
He was born in Tiberias in Israel’s north to a Jewish-Moroccan family who relocated to Israel’s southernmost city, Eilat, on the Red Sea when he was a toddler.
A career soldier, he opted to serve in the infantry. He was part of the elite Golani Brigade and reached the zenith of the military with his 2015 appointment to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff in 2015 until 2019.
Yossi Melman, one of Israel’s most respected journalists on intelligence and defense reporting, told Fox News Digital that Eisenkot, "Is 100% a soldier. He is very brave and humble. He is an officer and gentleman."
Melman noted that when Eisenkot was chosen to be the next IDF chief of staff, he declined because he felt that then General Benny Gantz should receive the appointment. Melman asked, "How many people would do that? He was selected after Gantz. It shows his traits of modesty, honesty and not arrogant."
Melman said, "It is a miracle he is leading in the polls. He is the antithesis of a what a politician should be. He is not a great orator when you compare him to Netanyahu. He radiates honesty."
Eisenkot’s Mizrahi background — Jews who originate from North Africa and the Middle East — would mean, if he prevails, that he would be the first Israeli Prime Minister of Moroccan origin. The Prime Minister’s office has been held by Israelis of Eastern European descent (Ashkenazi) since the rebirth of the Jewish state in 1948.
After Hamas invaded Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 and slaughtered over 1,200 people, including more than 40 Americans, Eisenkot joined Netanyahu’s war cabinet as a minister without portfolio.
Melman said Eisenkot "did not set any political conditions" and "his presence in the cabinet saved Netanyahu." After eight months of serving in the war cabinet, Eisenkot resigned, blaming the prime minister for failing to implement a comprehensive strategy.
The war against the Iran-backed terrorist movement Hamas took an enormous toll on the battle-hardened General Eisenkot and his family. Hamas killed his son, 25-year-old Master Sergeant Gal Eisenkot, in Dec. 2023. The terrorist organization also killed two nephews of Eisenkot. Netanyahu and his wife Sara said at the time that they were devastated by Gal’s death and Eisenkot was a "true hero."
Danny Orbach, a military historian from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, gave his take on the leading contender to replace Netanyahu. "I think his military record and his prospects as a national leader have both significant strengths and serious weaknesses. He bears considerable responsibility for shaping the IDF that existed on Oct. 7, 2023. And that was, paradoxically, both the army that proved capable of defeating Hezbollah, striking Iran and achieving unprecedented military successes in the extraordinarily difficult, tunnel-ridden battlefield of Gaza and the army that failed so miserably on Oct. 7."
He continued that, "Like other chiefs of staff, Eisenkot bears responsibility for the decisions that reduced the army's size and for the infamous ‘conceptzia’ [Hebrew word for concept] regarding Hamas. In that respect, I consider him just as culpable as Netanyahu."
Israel’s military, intelligence and political establishments bought into the ‘conceptzia’ that Hamas could be housebroken with massive infusions of economic aid. Hamas, however, was wedded to its radical Islamist ideology —the destruction of the Jewish state — and used the funds to advance its war aims.
Orbach noted that "I don't think most of Eisenkot's support stems from his energy, enthusiasm or even his political platform. My impression is that Eisenkot has emerged as the default ‘non-Bibi’ candidate, the politician who currently channels much of the camp's hopes and expectations."
Orbach added that "I also doubt that Eisenkot would have had the political determination to stand up to the Biden administration on such matters."
Netanyahu and former President Biden repeatedly clashed over Biden’s attempts to rope in Israel’s efforts to defeat Iran’s seven-front war against the Jewish state.
The military historian, however, noted that "I believe an Eisenkot government could address several of Israel's most urgent problems. It would remove Ben Gvir from power, confront the growing problem of Jewish extremist violence and terrorism in the West Bank, and begin repairing Israel's severely damaged international legitimacy."
Itamar Ben-Gvir is a controversial right-wing firebrand politician and the current minister of national security since 2022, who has outraged many Western European and foreign leaders with his heated rhetoric against the Palestinians.
Eisenkot’s wife, Hannah, comes from an American Jewish family. U.S. General Joseph Dunford awarded Eisenkot the Commander of the Legion of Merit because of his "exceptionally meritorious service as chief of the General Staff of the IDF" and his "contribution to the strategic cooperation between the United States and Israel [that] will have a lasting effect on both countries," according to the Washington Institute, where Eisenkot served as a military fellow in 2019.
Nadav Eyal, an Israeli analyst and journalist for the mass circulation Israeli paper Yedioth Aharonoth, told Fox News Digital, Gadi Eisenkot is widely considered one of the most successful Chiefs of Staff that Israel has had in the last thirty years."
He continued that "Chiefs of Staff in Israel, unlike in other countries, are really extremely capable, in general, to be prime minister. They are leading the country’s biggest organization, the IDF."
Eyal, who writes extensively about the IDF, credited Eisenkot’s military planning against the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon and the significant defeats the Lebanese Shiite entity experienced, including the "discovery of tunnels that Hezbollah built" to enter Israel. Hezbollah immediately joined Hamas’s war against Israel in Oct. 2023.
Given the nature of Israel’s electoral system, an outright winner won’t likely be known for several days, since the leading party will need to form a coalition to get to the 61-seat mandate to run the country.
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