EXCLUSIVE — CBS News editor-in-chief Bari Weiss faced "significant resistance" from staff at Thursday's 9 a.m. meeting about the growing Alaska ballot controversy, network insiders told Fox News Digital.
"This is a scandal," Weiss declared to staff.
According to multiple sources on the call, several CBS News staffers pushed back at Weiss' enthusiasm over the bombshell New York Times report alleging Democrats schemed to find a Dan Sullivan to run against incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, in hopes of aiding Democratic opponent Mary Peltola.
Many on the call shrugged it off as routine politics and said Republicans have also engaged in similar scheming.
When Weiss asked for other examples of ballot confusion, "Face the Nation" moderator Margaret Brennan reportedly pointed to New Hampshire Senate candidate John Sununu, suggesting that midterm voters might confuse him with his brother, former Gov. Chris Sununu.
CBS News political correspondent Ed O'Keefe also insisted that such tactics are nothing new. Earlier that morning, during his appearance on "CBS Mornings," O'Keefe stressed to viewers that what happened in Alaska "could be a dirty trick, but it's not illegal," adding that "this has happened before, kind of." He pointed to the 2016 Alaska Senate race when former Anchorage mayor Dan Sullivan — no relation to the U.S. Senator of the same name — briefly ran against incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the GOP primary, hoping "name recognition" of the other sitting senator would help his own candidacy.
A separate CBS staffer on the call pushed back against the notion that colleagues like Brennan and O'Keefe were trying to downplay the scandal, telling Fox News Digital they were providing context to the story being discussed.
The staffer also said the meeting was never contentious and that it was a "healthy, good conversation."
Still, Weiss called the uproar in Alaska a "great story" that the network should follow and urged staff to push for stories like the one The New York Times broke, calling it a "learning moment."
A spokesperson for CBS News declined to comment.
Republicans have long been suspicious about the candidacy of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher who is among four Senate candidates listed on Alaska's rank-choice ballot. The Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against the state of Alaska seeking to block certification of the election results if the incumbent senator loses and votes cast for the other Sullivan could have changed the outcome.
On Wednesday, The New York Times alleged his candidacy was no coincidence.
"In the summer of 2025, a staffer for Mary Peltola, the Alaska Democrat who was eyeing a run for Senate, received unusual instructions from top campaign aides: Find as many people named Dan Sullivan in Alaska as you can," the Times began its report Wednesday.
"The staffer complied, combing through voter records to produce a list of Dan Sullivans from across the state. ... [I]f the Peltola campaign or its allies could track down and persuade another Dan Sullivan to run for Senate, the confusion could cost the senator crucial votes on the state’s unusual, four-person ballot. The plan worked," the report said.
According to Peltola's former campaign manager, Elisa Rios, Peltola was not directly involved in the scheme but was "definitely aware."
Peltola's campaign has denied involvement in his candidacy.
"But The Times has found, based on interviews and text messages, along with documents prepared for a potential lawsuit against the campaign, that not only did Ms. Peltola’s team work with people trying to recruit Mr. Sullivan to run for Senate, but the effort was much broader," the Times reported. "The group worked to coax other would-be spoilers into the race, to dilute the incumbent’s support and help catapult the Democrat to victory."
Peltola called the Times report a "distraction" and "stuff to sell newspapers." However, Republican Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy has ordered an investigation into whether any crimes or civil violations were committed.
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, suggested that Americans could die if Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is elected, suggesting that the Democrat could use U.S. intelligence to tip off terrorists.
"If Abdul El-Sayed becomes the senator from Michigan, there is absolutely nothing to stop Chuck Schumer from placing Abdul El-Sayed on the Senate Intelligence Committee. The Senate Intelligence Committee has access to our most closely-guarded secrets. And if I am correct that he is a passionate supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, there is a very real risk that Americans will die as a result," Cruz warned.
"We have American service men and women in harm's way fighting Muslim Brotherhood terrorists right now. And we also have intelligence covert operatives heroically going undercover trying to anticipate and stop terror attacks before they happen, before they kill Americans. We have every reason to believe that Abdul El-Sayed, if he found out, 'OK, they're about to apprehend these terrorists,' that he would let those terrorists know," Cruz claimed.
The El-Sayed and Rogers campaigns did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital's comment requests on Thursday.
Speaking to Fox News chief political anchor Bret Baier last week, the Democratic candidate said that he has "never been" and "never will be a member of the Muslim Brotherhood."
"I am interested in serving the United States. I'm interested in swearing an oath to the Constitution that every senator has swore an oath to," El-Sayed said.
El-Sayed is facing President Donald Trump-backed former Rep. Mike Rogers in the Michigan U.S. Senate contest.
High-profile races that will determine which party controls the Senate for the next two years are extremely tight, according to a new CNN poll, as Maine and Kansas remain close and Democrats extended their leads in Texas and Michigan.
Democrats, who are widely projected to win a majority in the House of Representatives, need to flip four Senate seats from red to blue in order to gain a 51-seat majority, protecting their majority from the vice presidential tiebreaker.
Maine
In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is the only Republican incumbent running in a state that went for Kamala Harris in 2024.
Collins' Democratic challenger is Troy Jackson, the former president of the state Senate who jumped into the race as a replacement for the previous nominee, scandal-plagued Graham Platner.
The race has no clear frontrunner, according to the CNN poll, though Jackson holds a marginal lead.
Forty-nine percent of respondents told the outlet's pollsters they favored Jackson, compared to 45% for Collins. While Jackson is slightly ahead, at least 12.5% of voters say they could still change their minds.
Respondents tied Collins to her party less than any other Republican running for Senate in the nation, with 46% of respondents saying they believe she would choose her constituents over the Republican Party.
With Collins managing to distance herself from Trump, her race has largely become a referendum on her own career. Three-quarters of respondents from either party told CNN pollsters that their choice was motivated more by Collins than Jackson.
In Michigan, despite warnings from some mainstream Democrats and the state's Jewish community, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is building a lead over former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich.
Respondents favored El-Sayed at 49% compared to the 42% who favored Rogers, according to the poll. CNN's previous poll, released in early September, showed El-Sayed with a 47% share compared to Rogers' 44%, showing the former public health director El-Sayed building on his lead.
The Democrat has consolidated his party's support after a contentious primary with Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich. Ninty-five percent of likely Democrat voters say they'll punch the ticket for El-Sayed, up from 90% in the September poll.
Rogers voters, meanwhile, are motivated more by dislike for the Democratic candidate than faith in the Republican. 57% told CNN pollsters they were voting against El-Sayed, up from 41% in a previous poll.
Rogers' favorability has also taken a hit, moving from 58% in September to 50% in October.
Texas
Texas State Rep. James Talarico also built upon a narrow lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, despite Talarico's extended absence from the campaign trail in early October.
Forty-nine percent of likely voters told pollsters they'd vote for Talarico, while 43% said they would vote for Paxton, according to the poll.
Texas, a state that has voted for exactly one new Democratic Senate candidate into office since Lyndon B. Johnson vacated his seat to become vice president, also voted more strongly for Trump in 2024 than in either of his previous elections.
Despite the typically steadfast support for the GOP in the Lone Star State, Talarico is riding a wave of favorability and minority support to remain in pole position five days before polls close.
CNN's poll says 64% of likely voters of color support Talarico, including 22% of the cohort that voted for Trump in 2024.
Talarico is also leading Paxton in favorability within their own parties. 24% of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Paxton, according to the poll. Just 2% of Democrats, meanwhile, view Talarico unfavorably.
Kansas
In Kansas, a state which Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024, incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., is falling behind Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton.
Forty-nine percent of likely voters say they support Hamilton, 45% say they support Marshall.
Hamilton, a relatively unknown candidate, is far outperforming his own party in a state where Democrats are broadly unfavorable. 57% of voters view the Democratic Party as unfavorable while only 38% of them feel the same about Hamilton.
Like Republicans in Michigan, likely voters in Kansas appear to be more highly motivated by a dislike for one candidate than strong positive feelings for another. 59% of Hamilton backers say they're motivated by opposition to Marshall.
Hamilton, a Christian pastor, is even drawing support from across the aisle. Roughly 12% of Republicans and Republican-leaning likely voters say they support Hamilton, according to the poll.
CNN conducted its polling via telephone between Oct. 20 and Oct. 27. Registered voters were randomly sampled, according to the outlet. 838 likely voters were considered in Kansas, 783 in Maine, 768 in Michigan and 923 in Texas. CNN tabulated its margins of sampling error at plus or minus 4.5% for Kansas and Maine, 4.7% in Michigan and 4.2% in Texas.
Fox News Digital contacted all eight campaigns for further comment.
We’re updating this forecast to move South Carolina from Lean R to Toss-up.
As this week’s Power Rankings reported, Republicans already viewed this as an uncomfortably close race. That belief is now widely shared.
Tonight, the president is headed back there to help Sen. Darline Graham in the Upstate, where she underperformed in her primary runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman.
New polling has Democratic challenger Annie Andrews and Graham tied at 48%-48%.
The Senate is still a toss-up with six states to decide the majority. On a good night for the Democrats, their ceiling rises to 54 seats. A good night for the Republicans could see them retain control with up to 52 seats.
It seems like there are two electorates in these midterms.
The first is frustrated with President Trump and ready to reject Republicans. It includes growing numbers of independent, rural and Hispanic voters who say they’ll vote for a Democrat.
That’s what the latest round of House polling shows, including a survey last week that had Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot and Fox’s most recent national poll.
The second electorate is wavering on Republicans but won’t necessarily hand Democrats the Senate. These are the voters in the Midwest and a few other places. They say they prefer the Democrat or Republican in their states by a point or two at most.
That’s the right conclusion from most of the battleground Senate polling.
How could both things be true? In other words, if Democrats have such a wide lead in the House, won’t the Senate fall too?
Both are true, and a big lead in the House doesn’t necessarily translate to the Senate. These voters are all in the same electorate, and they only seem divorced from each other because the House and Senate maps are so far apart this year.
The president’s declining approval rating and Democratic advantages on the issues will likely deliver them the House and possibly by many seats.
Those advantages have also allowed the blue team to play in a lot of Senate races that Republicans thought were unreachable, but only to the point of making them battlegrounds.
The road to a Senate majority goes through several states that Trump won by 11 points or more. Democrats can win any of these races. If Republicans turn out and stay loyal to their party, the climb for the left will be steep.
That’s why the Senate is a toss-up. Voters could give Democrats a majority and maybe with several seats to spare. They could also let the Republicans keep control.
We’ll find out in seven days.
Democrats have strong advantages on most key issues
In his 11-year political career, President Trump has triumphed over almost all of the threats to his power. The exception was the coronavirus pandemic, which was the top issue for voters in the 2020 election and ushered in the Biden presidency.
It was also one of the few threats that Trump has faced from abroad.
This time, Trump and the Republicans face a new foreign opponent: Iran. The administration’s decision to start joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes against the nation in February has cast a shadow over the GOP.
First, it has impacted Trump’s approval rating, which will decide the fate of many congressional Republicans and has fallen since the war began. It was 44% in the last pre-war survey and sits at 36% now.
The war has also given Democrats advantages on the top issues. In Fox’s October survey, Iran played a role in four issues that more than two-thirds of voters said they were concerned about: inflation (85%), gas prices (83%), government leadership (79%) and the war in Iran itself (75%).
Most voters said they preferred the Democrats to handle those issues: 16 points on inflation, 12 points on gas prices, 11 points on leadership and 9 points on foreign policy.
Republicans are competitive on home turf
Still, voters are not convinced that the Senate should change hands.
That comes down to the territory. Trump won seven of these 10 battleground states in 2024 and six of them by double digits. That includes Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.
Democrats don’t need to win all of those states to take the Senate, but it’s hard to see how they get to 51 seats without at least two of them.
While former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads in Ohio, the other states are close. Turnout, a polling error in either direction, or both could decide them.
There are also a lot of undecided voters. In Alaska, Iowa and Kansas, three states with recent high-quality polling, an average of 10% of voters say they haven’t decided who they will support or won’t support the major candidates.
Any guess on how those voters will break at the ballot box is only a guess. All we know from prior results is that the overall electorate leans conservative, so the Democrats have the tougher assignment to bring them over to their side (or keep them at home).
There are far fewer undecided voters in Texas, where last week’s Fox News Poll showed a tied race at 49%-49%.
If Democrats only win two Trump-won battlegrounds, they’ll need to win three other races where former Vice President Harris delivered single-digit victories in 2024: Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Democrats are ahead in the latter two. Maine could go either way. While Democrats win its presidential races, it could just as easily be considered a Republican state when Susan Collins is on the ballot.
The final Fox News Power Rankings for 2026 feature three shifts in the Senate and 19 in the House. A tight gubernatorial race is also on the move.
Senate: Democrats are favored in 48 seats; Ohio moves to Lean D and South Carolina moves to Toss-up
Both parties are short of a majority in this forecast. Democrats are favored in 48 seats, and Republicans are ahead in 46 (they would control the Senate with 50 seats because the vice president breaks ties).
On a good night for Democrats, the party would win most or all the toss-ups, taking the majority with up to 54 seats. In that scenario, other competitive states would also come into focus, including one rated Lean R, and on a great Democratic night, two more rated Likely R.
A good night for the Republicans would see them simply hold on to most of the states they already have, up to a ceiling of 52 seats. The party also has opportunities to flip a couple of states, including Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Three states are moving in this forecast.
Ohio
In Ohio, Brown has enjoyed a lead in three Fox News polls this year, including last week’s survey, which had him five points ahead of Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted at 52%-47%.
Ohio voters are very familiar with Brown, having sent him to the Senate three times. That has made it hard for Husted to campaign on socialism and woke politics, themes that Republicans elsewhere see as their strongest cards to play.
Ohio moves from Toss-up to Lean D.
("Lean D" means the Democrat has an edge, but it’s still a highly competitive race. We define every ranking and the process for setting them on FoxNews.com.)
South Carolina
As this week’s Power Rankings previously reported, Republicans already viewed this as an uncomfortably close race. That belief is now widely shared.
Tonight, the president is headed back there to help Senator Graham in the Upstate, where she underperformed in her primary runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman.
South Carolina moves from Lean R to Toss-up.
Mississippi
Mississippi is a Republican stronghold, but Trump’s decision to rally there over other deep red states is a sign that the party thinks it’s competitive.
GOP Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom in a race where protein choice has become a breakout issue.
Mississippi moves from Solid R to Likely R.
House: The floor for Democrats ticks up four seats to 223
Democrats are still likely to flip the House this November, and in this forecast, they’re predicted to take at least 223 seats.
Since a good night for the Democrats would see them take most of the toss-up races, they could end up with as many as 240 seats.
(On a great Democratic night, the party would pick up most of the Lean R districts as well, taking them as high as 252 seats.)
Republicans have 195 seats in their columns. A good night for them would take that total up to around 212. That’s six short of a majority, but enough to make life difficult for the next Democratic House Speaker, who would have to balance the demands of the moderate and far-left wings of the party.
Nineteen more races have shifted in the Democrats’ direction this week, all on the same themes outlined in the last House update: national and district polling, top-of-the-ticket strength and rural voter erosion.
The earliest-closing districts on election night will give some sense of the House’s future. Keep an eye on Kentucky’s 6th district, which covers Lexington and a large central area of the state. Trump won here by 15 points in the last presidential election. Thanks to a combination of left-leaning college voters and farmers grappling with higher costs, it looks close this cycle. The district moves from Lean R to Toss-up.
Governor: Ad or no ad, the Ohio governor’s race moves to Lean D
Finally, Ohio’s gubernatorial race is also on the move. The campaign between Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy was the top story in politics last week after Ramaswamy ran an ad featuring Acton’s mother, who called her daughter a liar.
Acton has been estranged from her mother since age 12, when she says she and her brother left her family home because her mother’s husband was sexually abusing her. Acton’s brother now appears in a response ad discussing their family history.
This ratings change is less about the response to the ad (Ramaswamy and President Trump are supportive of the commercial; most others, including Husted and Governor Mike DeWine, are against it) than it is about the fact that the Ramaswamy campaign felt the need to run it.
While Ramaswamy sat only two points behind Acton in last week’s Fox poll, he’s an average of seven points behind in other high-quality polls since September.
The businessman and onetime presidential hopeful has struggled in favorability ratings throughout his political career. This ad is unlikely to help.
The Ohio governor’s race moves from Toss-up to Lean D.
Fox News’ special coverage of the 2026 midterm elections begins at 6 p.m. ET next Tuesday, November 3, anchored by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. Tune in for the latest race calls and projections for control of the House and Senate from the Fox News Decision Desk.
Fox News’ recent report on how a Democratic majority could expose the limits of the progressive agenda identifies the tension at the center of the next Congress: Democrats could win the House with a coalition of progressive members and moderates elected in competitive districts, then struggle to agree on what their majority should do. Fox’s House rankings also show how narrow that majority could be, while its Senate analysis describes a chamber where a 50-50 split would leave Republicans with the vice president’s tiebreaking vote.
For Republicans, the strategic task is clear: hold the Senate, keep House losses as small as possible and make the case for governing around voters’ priorities.
A Democratic House would have the authority to investigate the administration. Oversight is a legitimate responsibility, but if Democratic leaders make investigations the organizing principle of their majority, hearings, subpoenas and document disputes could consume the calendar and political attention that Congress needs to address the cost of living, energy prices, border security and national defense.
That choice could also deepen divisions inside the Democratic caucus. In a House majority measured by only a few seats, a small group of members can gain leverage over leadership votes, procedural decisions and the price of passing legislation. Fox's reporting describes how Democratic leaders are already navigating progressive demands alongside the concerns of members from more competitive districts.
That is where members of the Democratic Socialists of America, along with other lawmakers aligned with its priorities, could become the party’s outliers. They would not control the entire caucus, but could have an outsized role in deciding the legislative schedule. When the margin is razor-thin, even a handful of members can press leadership for commitments on policy or use a close vote to extract concessions. If Democrats do not go far enough for them, they could slow or block their own party’s agenda.
Republicans should understand the opportunity. The DSA could dictate key decisions in a Democratic House. The risk for Democratic leaders is a recurring internal negotiation that makes compromise harder and gives moderates another reason to hesitate. If progressives demand more than swing-district members can defend, Republicans can argue that Democratic leaders are spending their majority on intraparty disputes instead of practical results. How the tables would have turned.
Keeping the Senate matters for the same reason. A Republican Senate would preserve a check on the House majority, shape judicial and executive confirmations and give bipartisan proposals a place to move if members in both parties are willing to negotiate. A tie would still leave Republicans with effective control through the vice president’s tie-breaking vote. That would not let Republicans pass major legislation on their own. Most bills would still require cooperation across chambers, and many would need broad support in the Senate. But it would keep the chamber from becoming an extension of the House Democratic agenda.
In the campaign’s final days, Republicans should make the case that pocketbook issues require a Congress focused on governing, not one consumed by investigations or pulled toward the loudest voices in either party. The objective is to keep the House margin close enough that Democrats must answer to their moderates, while retaining a Republican Senate as a check and a forum for bipartisan dealmaking.
Voters should see the stakes clearly: a narrowly divided House, a Senate no faction can dominate, and a Democratic caucus pulled between progressives and members elected in competitive districts. Republicans can close by promising what voters want from Congress: serious debate and workable solutions. If we hold the Senate and limit our House losses, divided government does not have to mean gridlock.
FREMONT, Neb. — Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., likes to joke that he’ll be whatever his candidates need him to be in order to win their races.
"I tell all of our candidates, I'll come out for you or against you, whichever helps you the most," Thune told Fox News Digital.
Thune’s tongue-in-cheek response came just before he attended a roundtable in Nebraska alongside Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb., who is running a tight race against independent Dan Osborn. That stop inside a corrugated metal building nestled among row after row of cornfields was among several visits the top Senate Republican has made across the country this cycle.
Since the Senate left Washington, D.C., last month to hit the campaign trail, Thune has been busy, hitting key states like Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa and Ohio. But as Thune racks up miles on the road, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has been largely absent.
Schumer has shifted to virtual events while high-profile surrogates, like former President Barack Obama, former Vice President Kamala Harris and others have descended upon battleground states that could make or break his ambitions of Democratic control of the Senate.
His most recent event came earlier this week: a virtual fundraiser for Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon, the Democratic Socialists of America-affiliated nominee running against Sen. Ashley Moody, R-Fla.
Many candidates running in key races across the map from Michigan to Mississippi have tried to distance themselves from Schumer or outright said they wouldn’t support him to lead Senate Democrats.
One of those candidates includes Scott Colom, a district attorney in Mississippi running against Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, R-Miss. The Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC closely aligned with Schumer, has teed up $1.2 million in advertising in the state, but Colom isn’t welcoming the top Senate Democrat with open arms.
When asked by Fox News Digital if he would support Schumer should he win his race, Colom said, "I don't want to get into hypotheticals, because I don't know what the options are, who the options are."
"But I'll say this, I don't like that our party is represented by two people that live in the same borough," Colom said, referring to Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.
"We need to have people that understand rural America. You know, that's part of the problem is we don't have enough rural voices in leadership in the Democratic Party, because we have values and we have a vision that might not be the same as the people in New York," he continued. "And we need to make sure our values and visions are part of the Democratic Party."
Others, like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan or Adam Hamilton in Kansas, have been more explicit in saying they won’t support Schumer if they make it to the Senate.
Republicans have leaned into that growing schism between Schumer and the ones who could make his wish of a Democratic-controlled Senate come true.
"If you look at Republicans, there's not a single Republican running nationally that's saying, ‘Hey, if you elect me, I'll vote against John Thune as leader,’" Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, said. "On the Democrat side, you have virtually every candidate running saying, ‘If you elect me, I will vote against Chuck Schumer.’"
"They're going to have a huge problem, because the Democrats are really, really pissed off about Schumer," he continued. "So he's the problem."
Meanwhile, as the outlook for control of the Senate remains in the air, Thune has dedicated his time to showing up wherever his candidates need him.
"We're getting out and about — It's whatever we can do to help," he said.
On the other side of the political coin, Thune argued that the Democratic Party was struggling to find its identity in an election with high stakes for both parties.
He contended that socialists were the rising faction within the party, which was "creating problems for their leadership. And I think it's in both the House and the Senate, you're having to decide, is that what we want to be? Does that really represent us?"
And that ascendant left flank of Schumer’s could cause problems in a political environment that could be leaning Democrats’ way, Thune said.
"They've gotten so far left that they really are out of the mainstream of where the country's at," Thune said. "And I think that's going to hurt them in this election in what otherwise might be arguably a decent political environment for them, but I just — their party has really, really drifted."
Which candidates for Senate are in a better position to help their state and, by extension, their citizens in the six years ahead?
This is the question voters in every state with a contested Senate seat should ask themselves before they vote between now and the close of voting Tuesday.
Example number one is Maine, where Senator Susan Collins is matched against Troy Jackson. Jackson is the man picked by Maine’s Democratic Party — not the voters — after Graham Platner crashed, burned and withdrew from the race on July 10. The party’s state committee picked Jackson even though he had finished third in the Democratic governor’s primary the same day Platner won his primary. Polls rate the Maine race as a toss-up, but polls at the close in 2020 had Collins behind by at least four percentage points, and she in fact won by more than 8%.
Maine voters are unlikely to surrender the seniority Collins holds — she is chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee — for a rookie who would rank tied for last in the currency that matters the most in the Senate: the incumbent’s years served in the body. Add to that reality the fact that every Mainer seems to know the senator at least in passing and that communities across the state have benefited from the influence she has accumulated over more than 10,000 consecutive roll call votes, and Collins is poised to win. Again.
In South Carolina, Sen. Darline Graham has been serving since her brother Lindsey died. That gives her a leg up on new senators elected this year, and in a state that went for Donald Trump by 18% in 2024, it’s very likely Graham will return for a full six-year term.
Ohio’s incumbent Sen. Jon Husted has been in the Senate since January 2025. As a member of the majority, he’s in a position to deliver more for the Buckeye State than the recycled Democrat Sherrod Brown, who was ousted by Ohio voters two years ago after collecting government paychecks for almost 50 years. Brown’s very liberal career lost touch with an Ohio electorate that went for Trump in 2024 by more than 11 points. Husted is the best candidate to deliver for Ohio.
In Michigan, either Republican Mike Rogers or Democrat Abdul El-Sayed would be a freshman senator, but El-Sayed’s white-hot radicalism will put him in a corner of the Senate that is empty except for Bernie Sanders. Rogers, by contrast, is a mainstream, moderate Republican with 14 years of experience in the House. Expect Rogers to receive a warm welcome from the Senate GOP, which is eyeing Michigan as a battleground state in the 2028 presidential election.
There’s a reason why most contenders for the GOP nomination have been to Michigan to lend Rogers a hand. Pennsylvania’s Senator Dave McCormick was in the Wolverine State this week, and not surprisingly, McCormick’s name is in the mix for 2028.
That's also true for Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who seems to have been everywhere this election cycle helping everyone (as a prospective candidate for the presidency does). Cruz was in Alaska on October 17 to give an assist to Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is a two-term incumbent with enormous ability to deliver for Alaskans. Democratic nominee Mary Peltola, by contrast, would be a freshman in the minority party if, as I expect, the GOP retains the majority. That’s a terrible trade and one that it is doubtful most Alaskans want to make.
President Trump’s campaign trip to Alaska — rare for a sitting president — was intended to juice turnout there and to focus attention on the dirty tricks at work up north. A second "decoy" Dan Sullivan was planted on the four-choice ballot in the hopes of draining even a few votes from the real Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s weird ranked-choice voting scheme.
The real Dan Sullivan, the retired Marine Corps colonel on the Armed Services Committee with great seniority, is asking all voters, "Don’t rank Mary," to counteract the trickery. The electorate’s about a quarter of a million people. It’s a savvy bunch because the federal government matters so much in our 49th state. Expect the real Sen. Dan Sullivan to pull through.
President Trump won Alaska by more than 13% in 2024. He also won Texas and Iowa by more than 13%, which tells us that while Sen. Sullivan’s seniority will help him, even first-time candidates Ken Paxton in Texas and Ashley Hinson in Iowa should prevail against Democratic first-time nominees in both states, even in the "tough environment" of a president’s sixth year in office. President Trump has been to both states this week to energize the base. Whatever the polls say — and polls say both races are toss-ups — Paxton and Hinson appear to be in good shape and rising in the polls, and both would be joining a majority in the Senate, not the minority with vastly diminished powers.
Kansas went for Donald Trump by more than 16% two years ago. Its farmers have been hit hard by the high cost of diesel, but they know Sen. Roger Marshall has the seniority to help on the "Ag Bill" and deliver relief for the state. The nice pastor running against the nice Dr. Marshall doesn’t. The same is true for Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska.
Which brings us finally to Minnesota, which is a deep blue state but one that nominated a far-far-to-the-left Democratic candidate in Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, whose eight years in that state job coincided with the massive fraud scandals in Minnesota and soaring violence among gangs of Somali-American youths. The Democratic Farmer-Labor Party decided to go way left even as the GOP nominated the sparkling political "Rookie of the Year" in Michele Tafoya.
Michigan might have the most-watched race because there’s never been an extremist like El-Sayed so close to winning a Senate race before, but the biggest upset could come in Minnesota, with Gopher State voters returning to the tradition of sending their occasional Republican to the Senate.
American polling is as broken as Israeli polling, which just face-planted in Israel’s elections Tuesday. (Prime Minister Netanyahu emerged with the largest party and the largest coalition, which very few, if any, major polls saw coming.) Trusting polls to place bets on the prediction markets for American Senate races is as foolish as using the Farmers’ Almanac to plan your vacation in an El Niño year.
The enormous advantage of seniority plus the record amount and pace of campaigning by President Trump don’t combine to leave the GOP anxiety-free. But Republicans surely don’t take their cues from legacy media and pollsters, which are, again, almost all openly tilted toward Democrats. The vote will be intensely interesting, but if "toss-ups" turn out to be blowouts in red states, don’t be surprised.
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