The Israeli military intensified its deadly attacks on Palestinians in different parts of the Gaza Strip in the last 24 hours that preceded the announcement of the Knesset election results, which are expected by the morning of Friday, October 30.

Read more: Israel’s elections: all roads lead to genocide

At least six Palestinians were killed and dozens of others wounded in Israeli strikes that targeted different areas of the war-torn enclave.

The fatalities include four government employees, who were killed in an Israeli strike on the Ministry of Economy in the Al-Mawasi area, west of the southern city of Rafah. Thirty others were wounded in the same offensive. 

The Gaza-based government media office condemned the assault in a statement published on Telegram, describing it as “a new crime and a horrific massacre that targeted a group of civilian public-sector employees.”

It added that “targeting government teams and civilian public employees is part of the organized crime that the Israeli occupation has practiced, and a malicious exposed attempt to push towards chaos and disorder by undermining the work of government crews and institutions, which seek to maintain the stability and safety of society.”

Meanwhile, two people were killed and several others were wounded when an Israeli drone struck a civilian vehicle near the entrance to the Al-Maghazi refugee camp, in the central Deir al-Balah Governorate.

The latest deaths take the toll of people killed by Israel in Gaza since the US-brokered ceasefire deal was reached in October 2025 to more than 1,574 people, with 5,867 others wounded, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

The ministry also reported that at least 74,570 people have been killed since Israel started its genocidal aggression on the besieged strip in October 2023.

A temporary ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has held for a third day around the occupied town of Oleshky, allowing preparations for food deliveries and civilian evacuations. The agreement, mediated with the involvement of US First Lady Melania Trump, represents a limited diplomatic development in a war where attempts to establish broader ceasefires have repeatedly failed.

Russia and Ukraine have maintained a localised ceasefire around Oleshky in the southern Kherson region, creating an opportunity to deliver humanitarian assistance to civilians who have spent months effectively isolated from regular supplies of food, medicine and drinking water.

Ukrainian Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets said on 29 October that neither side had reported violations of the agreement and that teams were continuing to clear mines from roads intended for humanitarian convoys.

According to Associated Press, the six-day arrangement began on 27 October and is expected to remain in force until 1 November.

The first substantial humanitarian delivery is scheduled for Friday, 30 October.

An estimated 1,700 to 2,000 civilians remain in Oleshky, many of them elderly residents whose health, mobility or personal circumstances have prevented them from leaving.

The town is situated on the Russian-occupied eastern bank of the Dnipro River, opposite Ukrainian-controlled Kherson.

Its geographical position has made it particularly vulnerable to the consequences of the fighting, while damaged infrastructure, mines and military restrictions have complicated access for humanitarian organisations.

Melania Trump’s Unusual Diplomatic Role

The agreement has attracted attention because of the involvement of US First Lady Melania Trump.

In a White House statement issued on 23 October, her office announced that she had worked with Russian and Ukrainian representatives to secure arrangements for a temporary cessation of military activity.

The statement described her as the intermediary in the negotiations, covering the timing of the ceasefire, humanitarian access, evacuation procedures and operational coordination.

Lubinets subsequently acknowledged her involvement and said communication with his Russian counterpart, Yana Lantratova, had helped maintain the arrangement.

The White House originally announced 29 October as the starting date, but Ukrainian officials later reported that the ceasefire had taken effect at 3am on 27 October.

By Thursday, both sides were describing the agreement as holding without recorded violations.

The participation of the American First Lady is an unusual feature of international humanitarian diplomacy, which is more commonly conducted through governments, international organisations or specialist humanitarian agencies.

However, the immediate significance of the agreement will be determined by whether assistance reaches residents and whether those wishing to leave can do so safely.

A Town Cut Off from Essential Supplies

Oleshky has experienced prolonged humanitarian difficulties under Russian occupation.

The town suffered extensive disruption following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in June 2023, which caused severe flooding across communities along the Dnipro.

Subsequent fighting, damage to infrastructure and restrictions on movement further complicated access to essential goods.

According to Ukrainian officials, normal deliveries of food to the town have been effectively interrupted since late May 2026.

Residents have faced shortages of medicines and clean water, while the presence of mines has made movement beyond residential areas hazardous.

The remaining population is believed to consist largely of older people and residents requiring medical attention.

For these civilians, humanitarian access is not simply a matter of replenishing household supplies.

It may determine whether individuals can receive essential treatment, obtain prescription medicines or leave areas where normal medical and social services have ceased functioning.

The Evacuation Challenge

The ceasefire provides for humanitarian teams to assess residents’ needs and arrange transport for those who wish to leave.

The White House has indicated that residents should be able to choose their destination, including Ukrainian-controlled territory or Russia.

Ensuring that such decisions are genuinely voluntary is particularly important in occupied territory.

International humanitarian law provides protections for civilians under occupation, including restrictions concerning forcible transfers and deportations.

A credible evacuation process therefore requires clear information, freedom from coercion and practical arrangements allowing residents to travel safely.

The presence of journalists accompanying the mission may provide additional documentation, although media access does not replace independent humanitarian monitoring.

Russian and Ukrainian representatives have also been coordinating mine clearance along routes intended for humanitarian vehicles.

Until those routes are confirmed safe, the delivery of assistance and movement of civilians remain dependent on operational conditions.

A Ceasefire That Does Not Extend Beyond Oleshky

The agreement remains geographically limited.

Russian strikes continued elsewhere in Ukraine on 29 October, killing civilians in several cities, including Dnipro.

The continuing attacks demonstrate that the localised humanitarian arrangement does not represent a broader change in Russian military operations or the strategic direction of the war.

Nevertheless, the pause has also brought some relief to residents of nearby Ukrainian-controlled Kherson, where repeated attacks have disrupted daily life.

The absence of reported violations around Oleshky suggests that the two sides retain the ability to coordinate narrowly defined humanitarian measures when political and operational arrangements are in place.

That does not necessarily imply an increased willingness to compromise over territory or broader security questions.

What Happens After 1 November?

The agreement is scheduled to expire on 1 November, leaving only a limited period for delivering aid and facilitating departures.

Its effectiveness will depend on the quantities of assistance delivered, the number of residents reached and whether evacuation arrangements operate as intended.

It will also be necessary to establish what protection, if any, is available to civilians who remain after the ceasefire ends.

A successful operation could provide a model for similarly limited humanitarian arrangements elsewhere along the front.

However, extending such cooperation would require further political consent and practical security guarantees.

For Oleshky’s remaining residents, the immediate question is more urgent: whether several days without fighting can provide the assistance and safe passage that months of war have denied them.

Ukraine’s humanitarian mission to Russian-occupied Oleshky in Kherson Oblast has reached a key stage, with mine clearance along designated routes completed and a humanitarian convoy ready to depart, Ukraine’s Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets said on 29 October.

The mission aims to deliver humanitarian aid to civilians trapped in the occupied city facing humanitarian crisis, and provide a safe way out for those who want to leave. The operation is taking place under a localized ceasefire coordinated with the help of US First Lady Melania Trump.

Lubinets said the ceasefire has held for 54 hours without reported violations.

Aid convoy prepared, civilian evacuations planned

Lubinets said the humanitarian convoy was ready to leave and was expected to reach Oleshky’s central hospital. Residents would receive the assistance they need, he said.

Civilians wishing to leave the city would have an opportunity to do so until 2 p.m. local time, with security measures organized for their departure. Distribution of humanitarian aid was scheduled to begin after 2:30 p.m.

Delegations from Ukraine, Russia, and the United States had gathered to coordinate the next steps in the mission. Journalists from all three countries were also present, Lubinets said.

Lubinets travels to occupied Oleshky

Earlier on 29 October, Lubinets said he was still traveling toward Oleshky.

He said he wanted to be on the ground to see the situation firsthand and report on the mission’s progress. Lubinets also asked the public to rely on official sources and wait until he returned before raising further questions about the negotiations.

The Ukrainian ombudsman said the negotiations had been difficult and lengthy, adding that the mission had reached only the halfway point toward its goals.

“If I had to go for the sake of one person, I would go again,” Lubinets said, describing the mission as his duty to help Ukrainians in need.

US-mediated ceasefire enables humanitarian operation

The mission is being conducted jointly by Lubinets and Russian human rights commissioner Yana Lantratova, with mediation and coordination by Melania Trump.

The localized ceasefire took effect on 27 October to allow mine clearance, humanitarian deliveries, and civilian evacuations. 

Oleshky, on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, has been under Russian occupation since 2022. Russian occupation and restrictions on access to the city have left civilians facing severe shortages of food, medicine, and other essential supplies, while access to medical care has become increasingly difficult. The humanitarian mission aims to deliver urgently needed aid and help residents who want to leave reach safety.

Lubinets thanked Melania Trump and the Ukrainians and US citizens who helped bring attention to the situation in Oleshky and support the negotiations. He said the mission’s priority remained delivering assistance and helping civilians leave safely.

Jasper Nathaniel and Andrey Khrzhanovskiy recently came to the aid of Washington Post reporter Heidi Levine after she was beaten by Israeli settlers, and spoke out about the attack.

Oleshky residents who choose Ukraine are to be taken through Russia and flown to Belarus, and the ceasefire agreement does not say how they will get from there to Ukrainian-held territory, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted on 28 October. ISW also warned that Russia may use the truce to rebuild its forces in Kherson Oblast.

Oleshky, a town across the Dnipro from Kherson, has been occupied by Russia since February 2022, and about 2,000 people remain there, short of food and medicine. A US-brokered truce took hold on 27 October so aid can go in and residents can leave. The mission will show whether Russia lets those who choose Ukraine actually get home.

Anapa, Homiel, and then?

Pages of the agreement, signed on 23 October by Ukraine’s human rights commissioner Dmytro Lubinets and his Russian counterpart Yana Lantratova, were published by Fox News. They send the Ukrainian delegation and residents who want to go to Ukraine from Oleshky to the airport in Russia’s Anapa. From there, a Russian Defense Ministry military transport plane is to fly them to Homiel in Belarus, with the flight expected on 31 October.

The delegation includes Lubinets, two of his staff, and two Ukrainian journalists, accompanied by a representative of the Russian ombudsman’s office and of the group coordinating the mission. Russia’s Dnepr Grouping of Forces, which holds the left bank of the Dnipro, provides the escort. ISW pointed out that the pages do not explain how evacuees travel on from Belarus, and that it remains unclear whether Russia will give residents “a legitimate and duress-free choice” to return to Ukraine.

A route through Russia may also mean so-called filtration. People leaving occupied Mariupol in 2022 had to pass Russian screening, and many who hoped to reach Ukrainian-controlled territory were taken to Russia instead, Human Rights Watch documented. In Washington, the Congressional Ukraine Caucus welcomed the ceasefire but raised alarm over reports that Russia was keeping Oleshky residents from evacuating to Ukrainian-controlled territory, RFE/RL reported.

On 29 October, the Ukrainian delegation led by Lubinets arrived in Belarus, and the two delegations held their first in-person meeting at Homiel airport, Belarus’s state agency BelTA reported. Belarus has also joined the operation, BelTA said. Lubinets confirmed the same day that he had set off for Oleshky with the delegation to deliver aid and work on making sure people can leave safely.

Aid due on 30 October

The truce has held for 54 hours without violations, Lubinets said on 29 October. Routes are being demined, and an aid cargo is to reach Oleshky on 30 October, he added. The truce is set to last until 22:59 on 1 November. Across the river, the Kherson Oblast administration recorded no shelling and no civilian casualties over the past day.

Lantratova wrote that aid had been sent, saying residents need “food, fuel, medicine, hygiene products,” and that they would be able to leave wherever they wanted to go. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia expected residents to get aid within a day or two and those who wished to leave to be able to do so, Ukrainska Pravda reported.

US First Lady Melania Trump, who brokered the truce, announced that four Newsmax journalists will work in Oleshky alongside the Russian and Ukrainian humanitarian teams. Her post quoted Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who wrote that Russia “welcomes” the Newsmax journalists, rather than any Ukrainian official:

DOCUMENTING OLESHKY
Four American journalists from Newsmax will be on the ground in Oleshky, embedded with Russian and Ukrainian humanitarian leaders.

Serving as neutral observers, they will independently record and permanently document this historic humanitarian mission. https://t.co/orfhcC8URs

— First Lady Melania Trump (@FLOTUS) October 28, 2026

A pause Russia may use

On the truce’s first day, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov inspected the Dnepr Grouping and met its commander, Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky. The ministry said they discussed drone units. Ukrainian serviceman and analyst Volodymyr Molchanov told Radio NV that intelligence shows Russia rapidly reinforcing its forces in Oleshky, bringing in what Ukrainian drones had kept out.

Russian forces may use the limited ceasefire to reconstitute in Kherson Oblast, ISW assessed.

All of Israel's liberal camouflage has been torn away in the state's vicious expansionism and collective desire for vengeance against Palestinians

Israelis headed to voting centers on Tuesday, October 27, in legislative elections to choose the members of the parliament, known as the Knesset.

The event marks Israel’s first general election since the October 7 attacks, which Netanyahu’s government expanded into a multi-front regional war. 

Who is competing in the elections?

For many, these elections serve as a direct referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the far-right bloc he heads. 

The Pro-Netanyahu Bloc 

This bloc comprises the National Liberal Party (Likud) led by Netanyahu, the Religious Zionist Party (HaTzionut HaDatit) led by current Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and Jewish Power Party (Otzma Yehudit) led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

The coalition advocates for the consolidation of Israeli rule throughout the occupied Palestinian territories, explicitly rejects the possibility of Palestinian statehood, promotes the expansion of settlements and the implementation of hardline security measures against Palestinians. It also calls for disavowing the Oslo Accords, and the total disarmament of Hamas.

The anti-Netanyahu bloc 

The primary competitor to Netanyahu and his coalition is the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of the Israeli forces. It represents a center-right to center-left opposition when it comes to Israeli internal affairs, but of course not to Palestinians and their destiny.

Eisenkot is the architect of the “Dahiya Doctrine,” an Israeli military strategy that calls for applying massive, disproportionate firepower and the widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure in order to create long-term deterrence, and discourage the local population from supporting any force resisting Israel.

He was also a member of Netanyahu’s war cabinet for the first eight months of Israel’s genocide in Gaza.

Eisenkot’s bloc includes the Yashar Party, led by Eisenkot, and the Together alliance (Beyachad), led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett. It also includes The Democrats (HaDemokratim) – a merger of the Labor and Meretz parties – led by Yair Golan, a retired IDF Major General.

Israel Is Our Home Party (Yisrael Beiteinu) led by Avigdor Liberman, is also part of Eisenkot’s coalition.

Liberman, who formerly held ministerial portfolios in the Israeli government as minister of finance, defense, foreign affairs, strategic affairs, transportation, and national infrastructure alongside being a deputy prime minister, is known for his hawkish stances towards Palestinians. 

Defending the use of live ammunition by Israeli forces against Palestinian demonstrators during the 2018 Gaza border protests (known as the Great March of Return), Liberman stated: 

“There are no innocents in Gaza.”

Although the components of this coalition are united by their goal to oust Netanyahu, they remain deeply aligned with their political rival’s traditional right-wing stance regarding the Palestinian cause.

The coalition opposes the creation of an independent Palestinian state, while supporting the ongoing military operations in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and other parts of West Asia, and maintaining existing settlement frameworks.

Some of the coalition’s affiliated parties further encourage separating Israeli and Palestinian populations, and retaining complete Israeli security control over strategic areas such as the Jordan Valley. They also demand the full demilitarization of any future Palestinian entity.

Others call for the dismantling of the Palestinian Authority, the annexation of Area C in the West Bank, and the entrenchment of discriminatory policies against Arab citizens in Israel.

The Arab-led lists

The Arab-led lists represent the minority of Palestinian citizens in Israel (also known as Arab-Israelis), a community that makes up roughly 21% of Israel’s total population, estimated at 10.3 million.

Even though both lists fight for the same minority group’s rights, they hold opposing views on the goals, values, and strategy needed to represent them effectively.

While representing a minority, these lists hold a critical and often polarizing role in Israeli elections, as they frequently act as a critical balance of power that strongly determines whether a governing coalition can be formed.

These lists include the Joint List and the United Arab List.

The Joint List

The Joint List consists of:

• The Democratic Front for Peace and Equality (Hadash) led by Yousef Jabareen, a prominent Palestinian legal scholar, academic, and politician.
• The Arab Movement for Renewal (Ta’al) led by Dr. Ahmad Tibi, a prominent Palestinian politician, who has served as a member of Knesset since 1999.
• The National Democratic Alliance (Balad) led by a prominent Palestinian politician and historian Sami Abu Shehadeh.

The coalition  advocates for Palestinian self-determination and civil rights, for an end to the Israeli occupation, and for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state along the 1967 borders with Jerusalem as its capital.

It also demands full legal equality and state recognition for Palestinian Arab citizens as an indigenous national minority, and calls for immediate government and law enforcement intervention to curb the increase in organized crime in Arab municipalities.

Structural reforms to secure building rights, expand municipal boundaries, and stop punitive home demolitions are top priorities on the Joint List’s agenda.

The United Arab List 

The United Arab List (Ra’am) is an Islamist and conservative political party led by Mansour Abbas, a prominent Palestinian politician, whose party was the first independent Arab-Muslim faction to join an Israeli government.

Unlike traditional Arab political lists, Ra’am demonstrates a willingness to ally with Jewish political parties in government. It uses a pragmatic, integration-focused strategy to gain political influence and enhance the socioeconomic wellbeing of Arab-Israeli citizens.

Ra’am prioritizes the immediate domestic needs of Arab communities inside Israel, such as fighting local organized crime, improving public infrastructure, securing budgets, and resolving housing issues.

Netanyahu is alarmed by surging Arab voter turnout

Media reports indicated that Arab citizens voted in numbers not seen in decades, which in turn pushed Netanyahu to launch an urgent social media campaign, warning of the growing participation of Arabs.

Urging his supporters to go out and vote, Netanyahu appeared in a video, accusing Ra’am of bribing voters with envelopes of cash in the southern areas occupied by Israel.

“My brothers and sisters, Likud voters, this is an emergency call, because they are trying to steal the election from us. This morning, the police announced something serious and unusual. They caught three of Ra’am’s senior financial figures with envelopes of cash in the south. This is criminal. They will get to everyone. You have been warned, the voter turnout in the Arab sector in the south is incomparably higher than in the Jewish sector. You must go out and vote,” Netanyahu said.  

He also claimed that left-wing women escorted Arab women to the polls.

Shortly before polls closed at 10:00 pm local time, the final reported voter turnout reached 74.3%, the highest in decades, with exit polls showing no clear winner, and pointing to a political deadlock.

It is expected that the final tally and initial results will be published between Thursday afternoon, October 29, and Friday morning, October 30, while the official results will be announced on November 4, 2026. 

All roads lead to genocide, no matter which bloc wins

While many are looking forward to the loss of Netanyahu’s bloc in the elections, hoping that a new government will be less brutal against Palestinians and people across the West Asia region, analysts suggest that Eisenkot’s bloc adopts the same Zionist ethnic cleansing-based ideology. 

In an interview with BreakThrough News, Israeli-American author, activist and founder of Palestine House of Freedom Miko Peled argued that there are no differences between the two competing blocs when it comes to issues like Israel’s war on Iran, the mass killing in Gaza, forcing Palestinians to flee the besieged enclave. Meanwhile, disputes on the internal Israeli issues – mainly the draft of ultra-orthodox jews in the military and initiating an independent inquiry into the failure of the army and intelligence on the October 7 attacks – remain serious.

Civilians in Russian-occupied Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, are to be evacuated from the town hospital on the morning of 30 October, Oleksandr Tolokonnikov, deputy head of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration, told DW on 27 October. The date could still change, he said.

Oleshky, a town on the Dnipro’s left bank across from Kherson, has been occupied by Russia since February 2022 and has gone short of food and medicine for months. Of about 24,000 pre-war residents, 1,700 to 2,000 remain, mostly elderly, the White House estimates. Drone strikes and mines have cut the town off from the rest of the region, the Financial Times reported. The evacuation would give them an organized way out, and test whether Russia lets those who choose Ukraine actually leave.

The route for those who want to go to Ukrainian-controlled territory is not yet set and will likely pass through Russia, Tolokonnikov said. “There will be two paths,” he added: one for those who want to stay in occupied territory or in Russia, and one for those who want to leave.

Putin calls Oleshky a “Russian settlement”

On 27 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin described Oleshky as a “Russian settlement” in a call with the leaders of Finland and Norway, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported. ISW said it remains unclear whether occupation authorities will give residents “a legitimate and duress-free choice” to return to Ukraine. It warned that Moscow may treat holders of Russian passports as Russian citizens with no legal recourse to return.

People with knowledge of the talks told the Financial Times that residents who agree to leave would first be taken to occupied Crimea or Russia. The paper also reported that buses would take people out on Thursday morning, 29 October, a day earlier than the date Tolokonnikov gave.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned in a television interview on 25 October, the FT reported, that Russia would “de-mine in such a way that these people go towards Russia and remain there.”

Truce holds into a second day

The ceasefire took effect at 03:00 Kyiv time on 27 October and runs until 22:59 on 1 November, Ukraine’s human rights commissioner Dmytro Lubinets said on X. A day later, he wrote that Oleshky had gone 30 hours without an incident, crediting his contact with Russia’s human rights commissioner Yana Lantratova. The goal, he wrote, is to “create the conditions for the safe departure of those who need it.”

Ceasefire in Oleshky: Agreement Being Fully Honored

As of 5:30 p.m. on October 27, Ukraine and Russia are adhering to the ceasefire agreement in designated areas related to the humanitarian mission.

The ceasefire came into effect today at 3:00 a.m. Kyiv time and 4:00 a.m.… pic.twitter.com/2dzMIXRANX

— Dmytro Lubinets (@lubinetzs) October 27, 2026

The truce also covers Kherson Oblast’s coast, and Kherson city has gone quiet, Tolokonnikov told DW. The city has “literally come alive,” Lubinets wrote on 28 October, adding that both sides were still fully complying as of 12:00. On the truce’s first day, Volodymyr Obertas, an Oleshky-born press officer of Ukraine’s 34th Marine Brigade, was killed in central Kherson while escorting journalists. The brigade’s communications chief told Suspilne he stepped on an unidentified explosive device. The Defense Ministry’s Army TV said Russian forces detonated it remotely.

The deal reaches beyond Oleshky. Under terms both sides signed, Russia and Ukraine are to organize aid deliveries and repatriation in Kherson Oblast settlements as needed, at least once a month, after the Oleshky mission, Fox News reported.

The White House announced the ceasefire on 23 October, crediting First Lady Melania Trump with brokering it.

“I anticipate some will want to go to Russia, and some to Ukraine,” she said.

Drone-dropped aid and warning of staged Russian videos

Ukraine’s 34th Marine Brigade, working with National Guard and border guard units in Joint Forces South, delivered about 4 tons of food and medicine to Oleshky by drone, the command said on 25 October. According to intelligence, Russia is preparing dozens of staged videos in the town, in which residents would be forced to say on camera that they are well fed and grateful to the occupiers, it added.

Residents who try to leave the front-line town on their own cross mined ground, and Russian troops have seized food that Ukraine dropped in by drone.

LIVE | Tuesday, October 27 | Socialist Joe Tache and Republican John Deaton are vying for Democrat Ed Markey’s Senate seat in Massachusetts. But with only one televised candidate debate, voters still have questions.

BT Live hosts Zoe Alexandra and Rania Khalek press the 2026 midterm challengers on everything from Trump’s war on Iran and incursion into Latin America to Medicare for All, ICE and immigration reform – and why Massachusetts voters are getting so few chances to hear from the candidates courting their votes. (Ed Markey was invited but his team did not respond.)

Ukraine’s military intelligence estimates that only 10–20% of the prewar population may remain in the Russian-occupied left bank of Kherson Oblast, accusing Moscow of forcing Ukrainians from their homes while relocating Russian citizens to the area.

Russia’s efforts to displace Ukrainians and bring Russian citizens into occupied Kherson Oblast are part of Moscow’s broader campaign to consolidate control over occupied territory, impose Russian institutions, and erode Ukrainian national identity. Similar practices have been documented in other occupied Ukrainian territories, including the resettlement of Russians into homes in Mariupol and efforts to replace Ukrainian education with Russian curricula.

The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry (HUR) said Russia was creating intolerable living conditions for Ukrainian residents and unlawfully seizing private property to displace them. The agency said Moscow was simultaneously using financial incentives to recruit Russian teachers, doctors, and other professionals to work in occupied areas.

Russia brings in Russian workers as Ukrainians are pushed out

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, around 500,000 people lived on the left bank of Kherson Oblast, according to HUR. The agency estimates that only 10–20% of that population may remain.

Moscow is using state-backed recruitment programs, including “Zemsky Teacher,” “Zemsky Doctor,” “Zemsky Feldsher,” “Zemsky Cultural Worker,” and “Zemsky Coach,” to attract Russian citizens to occupied Ukrainian territory, HUR said.

Under these programs, Russian teachers and doctors who agree to work in occupied areas are offered one-time payments of 2 million rubles, while junior medical staff can receive 1 million rubles. The incentives also include higher salaries and other benefits, with contracts lasting at least five years.

HUR said hundreds of Russian teachers and doctors had already been brought to occupied Ukrainian territories from regions across Russia, including Krasnodar, Khabarovsk, Stavropol, and Perm Krais, as well as Rostov, Kursk, and Leningrad oblasts.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian medical personnel are needed primarily to serve occupying forces, while Russian teachers are being brought in to undermine Ukrainian children’s national identity.

Ukraine accuses Russia of war crimes and genocidal practices

HUR said Russia’s efforts to displace Ukrainian residents and bring in Russian citizens bore signs of war crimes and genocidal practices against the Ukrainian population.

The agency’s allegations concern both the coercive removal of Ukrainians from occupied territory and the replacement of local residents with people brought from Russia. Ukrainian authorities say these policies are part of Moscow’s broader effort to consolidate control over occupied Ukrainian land and impose Russian identity and institutions.

Kherson Oblast faces displacement, attacks, and a humanitarian crisis

Russian forces occupied much of Kherson Oblast in the early months of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Ukrainian forces liberated the oblast’s right-bank areas, including the regional capital, in November that year, but Russia continues to occupy the left bank of the Dnipro River.

Russian forces regularly attack Ukrainian-controlled areas of Kherson Oblast with artillery and drones, killing and injuring civilians. Ukrainians have described repeated drone attacks on civilians as a “human safari.” In May 2025, a UN commission of inquiry concluded that Russian forces’ repeated drone attacks on civilians along the Dnipro’s right bank amounted to crimes against humanity of murder.

The occupied town of Oleshky, on the left bank, has also faced severe shortages of food, medicine, and medical care amid restrictions on movement and continued fighting.

Russia’s occupation has also exposed residents of Kherson Oblast to major humanitarian disasters. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in June 2023 flooded settlements along the Dnipro, including Russian-occupied communities on the left bank, damaging homes and forcing residents to flee. Russian forces’ restrictions on access and evacuation further endangered civilians in the affected areas.

While Russia occupies the left bank of Kherson Oblast, its forces continue to target civilians on the Ukrainian-controlled right bank. Across the oblast, residents face the consequences of Russia’s invasion, from forced displacement and property seizures under occupation to deadly drone and artillery attacks.

The ceasefire around Russian-occupied Oleshky in Kherson Oblast has expanded beyond the town to provide safe passage for humanitarian convoys, US First Lady Melania Trump said on 27 October. The expansion is intended to facilitate aid deliveries to civilians trapped under Russian occupation.

Ukraine and Russia are observing a localized ceasefire to enable a humanitarian mission to reach Oleshky, where residents have faced months of shortages of food, medicine, and medical care under Russian occupation. 

Trump said the ceasefire took effect at 04:00 Moscow time on 27 October, two days ahead of the original schedule, to protect civilians and facilitate the delivery of critical humanitarian aid. Russia’s chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, had confirmed the arrangement, she said.

Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said no ceasefire violations had been recorded by 19:49 Kyiv time on 27 October, and Russian forces had made no attempts to advance. He added that he remained in constant contact with his Russian counterpart, Yana Lantratova.

THE CEASEFIRE HAS COMMENCED
The ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia took effect at 4:00am Moscow time on October 27, 2026. 
 
Timing was accelerated two days ahead of schedule to protect the safety of civilians and to facilitate the delivery of critical humanitarian aid. The…

— First Lady Melania Trump (@FLOTUS) October 27, 2026

Road to Oleshky must be cleared before aid can arrive

Lubinets said the ceasefire began at 03:00 Kyiv time and would remain in effect until 22:59 Kyiv time on 1 November. He reported no violations since it began and said Russian forces had made no attempts to advance.

The next steps are to clear mines from the road to Oleshky and deliver humanitarian supplies. Representatives of Ukraine, Russia, and the United States will be present once the route is cleared and the aid arrives, Lubinets said in an interview with Ukrainian broadcaster 1+1.

He added that everyone who wants to leave for Ukrainian-controlled territory would be able to do so and that assistance would be provided to everyone who needs it.

The Financial Times earlier reported, citing sources familiar with the negotiations, that residents who agree to leave Russian-occupied Oleshky during the ceasefire would first be transported to occupied Crimea or Russia before being allowed to return to Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Humanitarian mission follows months of efforts

Oleshky has been under Russian occupation since 2022. The town has been cut off for months, with shortages of food, medicine, and medical care worsening. 

The White House announced on 23 October that Melania Trump had secured a localized ceasefire originally scheduled to begin on 29 October. Russia subsequently announced a ceasefire on the Kherson axis from 27 October, with preparations to secure a route for a humanitarian convoy.

Lubinets said efforts to address the humanitarian crisis in Oleshky began in late February 2026, but progress accelerated in September following Melania Trump’s involvement.

The expanded ceasefire area is intended to facilitate the humanitarian operation, but the route must still be cleared and supplies delivered before the mission can reach residents. The new boundaries of the ceasefire area have not been specified publicly.

Israel's refusal to welcome int'l observers raises red flag. What is going on?

The constituents of the recently created Mecca Defence Alliance held their maiden meeting with Iran in Tehran on Monday, October 26, seeking ways to end the ongoing conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen and a larger understanding over regional security.

The participants agreed “to continue the dialogue to strengthen cooperation among the four regional countries, including for peace and security in the region,” a brief joint press statement, issued after the meeting said.

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Türkiye created the Mecca Pact in August amidst the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran and the growing fear of Israeli expansionism. The members have claimed the pact is based on the principle of collective security and was defensive in nature. Some of them have also hinted they are seeking to expand its membership.

On Monday, Defense Minister of Saudi Arabia Khalid Bin Salman, Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir, and Türkiye’s National Intelligence Organization Director Ibrahim Kalin met with the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Mohsen Rezaei and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

The Mecca Pact officials also met separately with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier in the day.

The meeting came at a time when there is a growing speculation about the renewal of US-Israeli aggression on Iran which has ceased since August. It also coincides with escalation in Saudi Arabia’s conflict with Ansar Allah in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia has faced increased retaliatory attacks from Ansar Allah forces in Yemen after it violated a 2022 UN-sponsored ceasefire and attacked Sanaa International Airport in July. Ansar Allah seeks the end of Saudi interference in the country and the lifting of over a decade-long Saudi blockade on the country.

Pakistan and Türkiye have since announced the deployment of their forces in Saudi Arabia.

Citing unknown Pakistan officials, Reuters claimed that the negotiations between the four countries also featured fresh proposals to end the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Regional cooperation on peace and security

Informing about the meeting, Esmail Baghaei, official spokesperson of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had earlier said that it could be a prelude to establishing endogenous security in the region.

“From our perspective, the fact that regional countries are seeking to establish, or at least consider, regional security mechanisms based on their own interests and concerns is a welcome development,” Baghaei said, underlining that Iran has long advocated for ending external reliance and building a regional security mechanism.

Iranian resilience against the joint US-Israeli aggression has “shown that sustainable and reliable security in our region can only be achieved through building trust and cooperation among regional countries,” Baghaei had claimed.

After the meeting, Rezaei announced that all the participants have agreed that “the security in West Asia must be endogenous and that any foreign interference must be prevented.”

SNSC’s Deputy Secretary Bagheri Kani also claimed that though there were differences in priorities and approaches, the quadrilateral meeting “reflected a shared understanding among the four parties of the need for cooperation,” Press TV reported.

Reacting to the development, Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute claimed that though the meeting had the immediate objective of the Mecca alliance seeking Iranian help to resolve the ongoing conflict between Yemen and Saudi Arabia, it also reflects a changing security dynamic in the region.

Contrary to “Washington’s conventional wisdom,” the countries in the region “are showing greater agency and taking responsibility for the region’s security themselves” as the US pulls back militarily following the humiliation faced in its eight-month-long war against Iran, Parsi claimed.

US is not a reliable partner

“Some regional countries once imagined that by aligning themselves with a major power like the US they could shield themselves from any threat. In practice, however, they discovered that this notion did not align with reality,” he said.

Saudi Arabia and Türkiye have several US military bases in the country. Pakistan has maintained a close military partnership with the US for decades.

Some of the US bases in Saudi Arabia were damaged during Iranian retaliation earlier this year. The US has reportedly refused to come to Saudi’s aid despite it seeking the same to counter Ansar Allah’s advances in Yemen.

The meeting on Monday was a result of the realization “that there is no alternative but to rely on regional engagement and to establish security based on cooperation and synergy among the countries of the region,” Kani said.

He also claimed that the members felt the urgency for the meeting as the Zionist regime has “demonstrated its savagery and an unbridled appetite for expansion” in recent years, indicating the ongoing Israeli genocide in Gaza and its aggression and occupation in other Palestinian territories, Lebanon, and Syria.

It was reported that all parties of the meeting demanded that Israel must end its genocide in Gaza and end its occupation in Lebanon and Syria.

The article examines how editorial disputes, legal restrictions and institutional decisions shape the way Palestinian history, suffering and political expression are presented to the public.

A ceasefire around Russian-occupied Oleshky in Kherson Oblast took effect at 03:00 on 27 October Kyiv time, and both sides were complying with the agreements, Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that its forces had stopped firing on the Kherson axis at 04:00 Moscow time, at the same moment.

Russia has kept Oleshky cut off for months. In June, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine documented worsening shortages of food, medicine, and medical care there and in neighboring Hola Prystan. As of 8 October, Lubinets’ office still saw no practical breakthrough toward an organized evacuation, with 358 residents verified as needing help to leave. The ceasefire is the first step that has to hold before aid can go in and residents can leave, an operation Marc Beckman, the first lady’s chief adviser, expects to take five to seven days.

By 09:00 on 27 October, Russian forces were still observing the ceasefire, according to Pavlo Drohal, spokesperson for Ukraine’s 30th Marine Corps. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Presidential Office, announced that the mission had begun and that Lubinets had gone to the site to coordinate it.

Ceasefire planned for occupied Oleshky as residents face starvation and blocked escape routes, White House announces

Ceasefire brought forward by two days

The White House announced on 23 October that First Lady Melania Trump had secured a localized ceasefire, set to begin on 29 October. The same evening, Russia’s chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov announced a ceasefire on the Kherson axis from 27 October, with engineering reconnaissance and a secured route for a humanitarian convoy. Ukraine’s General Staff followed, introducing a ceasefire in a designated area from the same hour.

Beckman told Ukrinform on 26 October that Russia had moved the ceasefire two days earlier and extended it beyond Oleshky into Kherson Oblast. Lubinets said on 23 October that the mission should effectively begin on 29 October, after demining, adding that the date was not a matter of principle for either side.

A day after the announcement, Lubinets and his Russian counterpart Yana Lantratova, who lead the two negotiating groups, confirmed the timing in an online meeting, he said. According to Lubinets, the agreement covers demining the road to Oleshky, delivering food, water, medicine, and hospital equipment, and safe movement for civilians.

Newsmax to document the operation

Meanwhile, Melania Trump said she had secured an “impartial American media organization” to accompany the Russian and Ukrainian teams. Beckman named it as Newsmax. He said he had worked directly with the channel’s owner, and that its journalists would record testimony as what he called neutral American observers.

Residents could leave for Ukraine or Russia, or stay, Beckman said. He added that Russia had assured Kyiv and Washington it would respect their choice of destination. Both governments asked him not to disclose what guarantees Russia gave or how violations would be handled, he said. He expects the operation to take five to seven days after 29 October, with an extension possible if both sides agree.

Diplomat doubts the truce will move peace talks

At the same time, Kostiantyn Yelisieiev, Ukraine’s ambassador to the EU in 2010–2015, told Radio NV the truce became possible only through the personal involvement of Donald and Melania Trump. The US president, he said, sees it as a way to show Americans he is bringing peace closer. He said he expects Russia to attempt provocations aimed at pushing residents toward the Russian side.

Yelisieiev said he does not share the optimism of those who think Oleshky could push the wider peace process forward. He compared it to the Black Sea grain corridor, a one-off arrangement that no longer works. He warned of a “diplomatic smokescreen”: Russia imitates negotiations while it keeps fighting, hoping Ukraine and its partners weaken over time.

A town under blockade

Oleshky lies on the left bank of the Dnipro, about 4 km from Kherson, and has been occupied since February 2022, Radio Svoboda reported. The White House says it had about 24,000 residents before the war and estimates 1,700 to 2,000 remain, mostly elderly, including about 50 children. Russian troops have also seized food dropped by Ukrainian drones, a local official said.

Two Palestinian men carried out a shooting attack, targeting a group of Israeli soldiers near the Farsh al-Hawa military checkpoint in the southern West Bank governorate of Hebron on Friday, October 23.

According to media reports, the attackers were assassinated by the Israeli forces after engaging in an exchange of fire for about 20 minutes. They were later identified as Firas al-Ju’ba and Hamoudah al-Ju’ba.

The attack also resulted in the killing of two Israeli soldiers and the injury of three others.

Netanyahu announces refugee-camp model campaign in Hebron and broader West Bank operation

In response to the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a full lockdown in the West Bank and a large-scale operation that will start from the city of Hebron and the neighboring city of Halhul, and further expand to the entire occupied territory.

Wearing a bulletproof vest, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened from Hebron that the Israeli military will apply the “successful and aggressive model” that the Israeli forces used in the Palestinian refugee camps in the north.

The operations in those refugee camps already resulted in the displacement of tens of the thousands of Palestinians, the killing of hundreds, the arrest of over 1,000, and severe damage and destruction of residential buildings, infrastructure, and properties.

“We will evacuate the residents, we will go house to house, remove the weapons there, and all terrorist infrastructure will be dealt with and destroyed,” Netanyahu threatened.

The Israeli military already began to demolish buildings and homes in Hebron shortly after the attack was carried out.

Referring to the West Bank as Judea and Samaria, Netanyahu continued:

“The defense minister and I have seen plans for a very extensive IDF operation in Judea and Samaria, the likes of which have not been carried out since the Six-Day War.”

The Six-Day War was a brief, intense conflict fought between Israel and a coalition of Arab states, primarily Egypt, Syria, and Jordan in 1967.

As a result of the war, Israel occupied Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, Syria’s Golan Heights, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip. It also forced 300,000 Palestinians and 100,000 Syrians to flee into neighboring countries. 

It is worth noting that Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have already threatened a possible war in the West Bank in the last couple of weeks.

These threats came hand in hand with an unprecedented escalation of settler violence under the protection of Israeli forces across the occupied territory, alongside intensified military raids. 

Over 79 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank in 2026, and more than 1,870 others have been injured since the beginning of 2026.

Analysts suggest that the escalation in the West Bank aims to push Palestinians towards a confrontation with the Israeli military, a few days before Israel’s legislative elections, scheduled for October 27.

Benjamin Netanyahu will almost certainly stay as prime minister after Israel’s elections on Tuesday, Miko Peled predicts – but he argues it won’t really matter if he doesn’t.

The Israeli-American author, activist and founder of Palestine House of Freedom in Washington, DC tells Rania Khalek and Zoe Alexandra who wins control of Knesset doesn’t really change things for Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank; with challengers like Gadi Eisenkot, the ex-army chief behind the Dahiya doctrine of flattening civilian neighborhoods, and ex-premier and settlement champ Naftali Bennett who vows to block a Palestinian state, the war machine stays the same. But Peled says the ultra-Orthodox fight over the military draft and growing demands for an October 7 investigation are tearing Israeli society apart.

He explains why settler attacks on Washington Post photographer Heidi Levine and Congressional candidate (and liberal zionist) Brad Lander show the state’s true face, pointing out “it’s all settler violence, because they’re all settlers.” Peled warns that a new Israeli attack on Iran could finally test the limits of Tehran’s restraint – and that if Netanyahu falls, Democrats may rush to re-embrace Israel ahead of the midterms, but the honeymoon won’t last. Watch full episodes of BT Live, join breakthroughnews.org as a member today! #breakthroughnews

US First Lady Melania Trump has secured an agreement for a localized ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, to allow humanitarian aid deliveries and civilian evacuations to begin on 29 October, the White House announced on 23 October.

The proposed truce comes after months of worsening conditions in Oleshky, where Russian restrictions have left residents without reliable access to food, drinking water, medicine, and medical care. Ukrainian officials and international monitors have called for a humanitarian corridor as civilians face hunger, landmines, and regular attacks, with residents unable to leave safely.

Update: Ukraine launches humanitarian mission to occupied Oleshky after US-mediated agreement

Update 21:31: Ukraine’s Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets announced the launch of a humanitarian mission to Russian-occupied Oleshky in Kherson Oblast, saying an agreement had been signed following negotiations coordinated by the US side, with mediation by US First Lady Melania Trump. 

The agreement provides for several stages, including preparations for a ceasefire, clearing routes of mines, delivering humanitarian aid, and unblocking evacuation routes. 

Lubinets said his office had been raising the alarm about the looming humanitarian catastrophe in Oleshky since late February 2026 and would report on each stage of the mission.

Ceasefire aims to open evacuation route

According to the White House, Trump and her representative worked directly with Russian and Ukrainian leadership to agree on the ceasefire's terms, timing, and procedures. Civilian representatives from both countries are expected to visit residents to assess their needs, while those wishing to leave will receive transportation to their preferred destination.

The White House said an American media organization would accompany the teams to document the process and help ensure families' wishes are respected.

Trump said she initiated discussions after learning about the crisis during a private conversation at an event in New York during the 81st United Nations General Assembly. She said the agreement also involves technical preparations, including demining.

Oleshky residents face hunger and isolation

Oleshky, on the Russian-occupied left bank of the Dnipro River, had around 24,000 residents before Russia's full-scale invasion. Recent estimates put the remaining population at roughly 1,700 to 2,000, including about 50 children.

Residents face severe food and medicine shortages, while Russian forces have restricted movement and attacked vehicles attempting to deliver humanitarian supplies. Ukrainian officials have also said Russian troops have seized food parcels delivered by Ukrainian drones and detained or beaten some residents who received them.

The crisis has drawn growing international attention. Pope Leo XIV appealed to Russian leader Vladimir Putin for a truce to allow aid deliveries and safe civilian evacuations, while Ukraine's human rights ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets, said on 18 October that negotiations over a ceasefire and evacuation had advanced to the stage of agreeing on final details.

The White House announcement sets 29 October as the start date for the localized ceasefire. Its implementation will determine whether aid can reach residents and civilians can leave safely after months of isolation.

Drone strikes disrupted communications and power in part of Russian-occupied Luhansk overnight on 23 October, Ukrainian monitoring channel Exilenova+ reported. It was the third night in four that drones went after communications in occupied eastern Ukraine. A pro-Russian local channel also showed a damaged factory, and the occupation authorities have stayed silent.

Ukraine's drones have spent months hitting what keeps Russia's occupation running, from fuel depots to supply lines and now communications.

Blasts before dawn, then outages

Explosions hit Luhansk before dawn, and the strikes probably targeted communications facilities, Exilenova+ said. Another Ukrainian monitoring channel, Supernova+, wrote that the city's TV tower came under attack. Exilenova+ posted night footage of the strikes.

The moment of arrival in Luhansk. Following the explosions, we are experiencing disruptions to communications and the electricity supply. pic.twitter.com/rNHXRJcVNt

— Exilenova+ (@Exilenova_plus) October 23, 2026

A drone attack damaged the building of the local telecom company, pro-Russian local channel Ogonyok Luhanska wrote on 23 October. It listed switches and servers among the damaged equipment and said the damage could explain landline outages and possible internet problems. The channel did not say whether the damage came from this attack or the one two nights earlier.

Strikes on local communications facilities in occupied Luhansk. pic.twitter.com/4Jz7aK7tKs

— Exilenova+ (@Exilenova_plus) October 23, 2026

By morning, water stopped flowing in parts of Luhansk and nearby villages, including Metalist and Tsvitni Pisky. A notice posted by local Telegram channel Luhansk Online cited unstable voltage at water facilities. The city's water utility later switched to backup phone numbers after its dispatch lines failed.

Third night in four

Overnight on 20 October, drones struck Ugletelecom, the occupation's telecom operator in Donetsk. A night later, they hit the seized Ukrtelecom building in Luhansk, which houses the occupation's mobile operator Lugacom. That strike disrupted the internet so badly that service centers across occupied Luhansk Oblast stopped accepting documents.

Silence from the occupation

The occupation authorities have not commented. Leonid Pasechnik, the Russian-installed head of occupied Luhansk Oblast, posted nothing about the attack. On 21 October, he claimed Kyiv was carrying out "terrorist strikes" on civilians. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed it downed 443 drones overnight over Russian regions, Crimea, and two seas, without mentioning Luhansk. The same night, Russia launched 176 drones at Ukraine, some from occupied Donetsk and from Hvardiiske in occupied Crimea, Krym.Realii reported, citing Ukraine's Air Force.

Ukraine's General Staff has not reported on the attack yet. After the previous strike on Luhansk, it said Ukrainian forces hit command posts of Russian units in the Luhansk area.

A pipeline-valve plant hit, too

Ogonyok Luhanska also posted daylight photos of the Marshal plant after what it called a "night arrival." They show a damaged workshop roof, and the channel wrote it had information that the drone hit inside the plant. The Luhansk Pipeline Valve Plant Marshal, registered in Ukraine in 1994, makes taps and valves at 13 Montazhna Street, according to Ukrainian state registry data published by VB.ua.

Earlier that morning, Luhansk Online reported restricted traffic on Montazhna Street between Brestska and Sukhodilska streets.

Ukraine has hit industrial sites in occupied Luhansk Oblast before. For example, in March, drones struck a plant in Alchevsk that made artillery shell casings.

Trita Parsi puts the odds of a new round of US-Israeli war on Iran at 90% – and it could start as soon as this weekend. The US and Israeli militaries have plans for renewed strikes after the midterms, the New York Times reports; three aircraft carriers are en route to the region, and Netanyahu, trailing ahead of Tuesday’s elections, says he’s ordered Israel’s military and Mossad to topple Iran’s government. Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, tells Rania Khalek and Zoe Alexandra why Trump’s third round will be far worse than the first two.

Parsi argues that Trump, initially driven by hubris, is now out for revenge against a Tehran he believes is deliberately dragging out the war to destroy his presidency. He explains why time is on Iran’s side; how Washington is spinning the war of attrition in the Strait of Hormuz; why soaring gas prices make the war impossible to tune out; and why even European conservatives say the protests sweeping the continent are fueled by the war’s economic fallout. Parsi warns Netanyahu may see escalation as the Hail Mary pass he needs to lock in his legacy, and says that if Democrats take control of Congress, they’ll have the power to stop this – and will be complicit if they don’t.

Watch full episodes of BT Live, join breakthroughnews.org as a member today!

#breakthroughnews
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Rough transcript follows:
[Interviewer:]

It’s very difficult to see this war lead to a scenario in which the impact on the global economy is sufficiently insignificant for it not to translate to any political changes. If you look at the polls right now, the top issues motivating people in this election are inflation and gas prices. That’s all due to the Iran war. Nearly eight months ago, the US and Israel launched a very destructive war on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader and disrupting global oil markets. Trump wanted a quick knockout, but instead, he got a war he can’t contain, a stalemate that nobody seems able to break, and a deal to end it that looks further away than ever.

Somehow, this war has become background noise in the US, and the next round may already be on the calendar. The New York Times reports that the US and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the midterms. This campaign would hit energy infrastructure, nuclear sites, and Iran’s missile and drone arsenal. They came close to doing this earlier this month before Trump pulled the plug at the last minute. Now, three aircraft carriers and thousands of Marines are on the way. Netanyahu, trailing in the polls ahead of next week’s elections in Israel, says he’s ordered the military to prepare for preemptive action and to topple the regime. Iran’s intelligence assessments suggest strikes could come even before Israel votes on Tuesday. The White House says nothing happens before the midterms. Meanwhile, the State Department has ordered non-emergency staff and their families out of Saudi Arabia, and the AFP cites a diplomatic source saying families of embassy staff in the UAE, Jordan, Qatar, and Bahrain have been ordered out as well.

Netanyahu is making big threats a week before elections. Trump says this time the fight will be neither quick nor limited, with no restraints. So what breaks this stalemate? Is escalation the only way out? And who can last longer, Iran or Washington? Joining us now to discuss all of this is Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute. Trita, welcome back to BT Live.

[Trita Parsi:]

Good to be with you.

[Interviewer:]

You are putting the odds of a new round of war at 90%. That’s quite high. The New York Times says the plans are drawn up and carriers are on their way. Why are you and the New York Times so confident? Some US planners think that three days of intense strikes will manage to break Iran’s economy and force concessions. Is that a serious theory?

[Trita Parsi:]

First of all, it’s kind of insulting to say that the New York Times and I are on the same page on this. I’m just kidding. But look, I’ve been warning about this for more than five weeks now that a third round was extremely likely because of a couple of factors. What we’re seeing now is more the motions necessary to bring about this disastrous third round being put in place. The signs and the logic as to why we were going in this direction were clear to me several weeks ago because Trump, at the end of the day, his psychology does not allow for him to lose. He is willing to sacrifice everything to win.

Earlier on, he thought that the MOU and a diplomatic deal could end the story in a way that made the war look worth it or at least acceptable. But he had a bad experience with the MOU. He got attacked for it by Democrats, Republicans, the pro-Israel crowd, everyone. He realized the political cost was very high. So now he thinks diplomacy won’t end it acceptably. Blockade won’t end it acceptably, even though they’re putting forward this mythology that they’re winning on the blockade. And the limited amount of war he’s had won’t do it. So now the only thing he hasn’t tried is this all-out war that he threatened several times but never did—taking out Iran’s oil infrastructure, energy infrastructure, desalination plants, critical infrastructure. He avoided that, knowing it would lead to massive retaliation by the Iranians against GCC infrastructure, which would throw the global economy into a depression. But now he doesn’t seem to care. The midterms are over, and he’s just looking to do something that brings this to an end on his terms.

There’s another element that makes matters worse now, which is last time he went in with hubris. He thought he could do this in four days. The Israelis had sold him that mythology. He had managed to do Venezuela quickly, so he was very confident. This time, it’s not hubris bringing him back; it’s vindictiveness. He’s very angry about the war’s outcome so far. He believes the Iranians deliberately dragged things out to destroy his presidency, and to a certain extent, they have. Now there’s this new element of revenge. So we may very well go towards a third disastrous round of war, not because of a flawed geopolitical miscalculation, but because of one man’s desire for vengeance.

[Interviewer:]

It’s truly tanking the global economy, putting tens of thousands of lives at risk because of vengeance. Trump has previously vetoed a major return to combat, including at the last minute earlier this month. He’s pulled back from major threats repeatedly. The White House says no strikes before midterms. Iran’s intelligence says it could come before Israel votes on Tuesday. Which clock is correct? If the Republicans lose Congress, can Democrats stop a possible escalation? Will they?

[Trita Parsi:]

Unfortunately, not to the extent that they should be. It’s perhaps a different political calculation before the midterms versus after. But with the MOU, there were Democrats who should have known better, who played a fantastic role in the JCPOA, who now returned a favor to the Republicans by doing bad faith attacks against the MOU. It contributed to the MOU collapsing. It’s not the only reason, but it contributed to Trump’s conception that a deal with Iran is not a win because of the high political price, a conception every previous American president has had. It’s interesting that Trump didn’t have it. It’s part of why he was willing to strike a deal with Iran, willing to strike a deal with North Korea because he was immune to the idea of a political cost for such an agreement. But that’s changed, and the Democrats contributed to it.

After the midterms, it will be critical for Democrats to do everything they can, from using the power of the purse to other means, to put an end to this war. Once they’re in control of the House and particularly if they also control the Senate, they’re no longer bystanders. They’re complicit if this is allowed to continue because they will have the power to stop it.

[Interviewer:]

There’s so much damage incurred from this war, obviously not as much as the Iranian side, but it still stands to be seen just how deep that damage can go. Iranian officials are now talking about expanding targets to data centers and undersea internet cables. Iran analysts floated hitting Saudi refineries like Aramco to spike oil prices. A top adviser to Ghalibaf called the idea of that 72-hour war a fantasy. What does the next round look like from Iran’s side? How much more can they escalate? Why do you think Iran has decided to wait out Trump rather than cut any more deals?

[Trita Parsi:]

I spoke to a senior advisor to a European president who’s no longer in office, not particularly unsympathetic to Trump. I asked him about the protests around Europe, not just in France, but in many other countries. How much of that is driven by the economic consequences of this war? To my surprise, he said overwhelmingly, a lot of it has to do with the economic consequences of this war. The focus is often on immigration, but it’s not the driving force. Even someone from the right, more on the anti-immigrant side, said what we’re seeing in Europe is largely driven by the economic consequences of this war. The global repercussions so far, in the first two rounds, are going to be benign compared to the third round, which will become overwhelming.

The other part of your question, if you could repeat?

[Interviewer:]

I was wondering why Iran has decided to wait out Trump rather than cut any more deals.

[Trita Parsi:]

That’s a very good question. In this war of attrition, the Iranians have been comfortable—not in the sense that they’re not hurting, but because they believe time is on their side. The Trump administration is putting forward a different story, saying they’re winning. They won the battle of Hormuz, more volume is coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, and they’re winning the war of attrition. Yet, it’s the US and Israel about to start this war, which tells you something about who actually is winning that war of attrition. The administration has been successful not because of their brilliance but because of the lack of brilliance in the media and analytical core. They said focus only on the volume of oil coming out, not the cost or oil prices. The impression was that the war of attrition is being won by the American side, and if anyone wanted to escalate, it would have been the Iranians. But reality seems to be the opposite.

Israel goes to vote on October 27th. If Netanyahu loses, he’ll be a caretaker, and technically, it would be hard for him to launch a war. Some analysts think he could use the threat of an imminent strike to force his rivals into a unity government. Are these threats about Iran or about keeping his job, or is that essentially the same?

[Trita Parsi:]

I think they’re pretty much one and the same. I’m not convinced that being a caretaker would make it more difficult for him to start. There will be resistance from within the security establishment, but the resistance may be higher because they’re worried he’ll start this war to impact the elections or force their postponement. The chief of staff of the army has publicly said this. Once the elections are over, and it’s in the process of forming a coalition, I’m not convinced he won’t have the ability to start a war, and certainly not convinced he wouldn’t want to. If he feels he’s about to lose the coalition, this would be his last chance for his legacy to do what his secretary of defense said is the Israeli objective: bomb Iran back to the stone age, shift the balance of power in the region so dramatically that Israel will no longer have a problem with Iran providing any deterrence against Israel. That has been the Israeli objective, and the Israelis are so openly talking about it, yet it almost never translates to any real conversation in Washington.

[Interviewer:]

Lastly, before we let you go, this war has really fallen off the front page. It’s become so normalized, like background noise. Do you think there’s a risk that opposition to this war fades because it’s becoming a kind of forever war that people just tune out, or is it too damaging to the global economy to stay a forever war?

[Trita Parsi:]

Part of the reason the US could have forever wars was because the political cost of ending the war was higher than the political cost of continuing a losing war, which was because the cost of continuing the war was relatively low. In Afghanistan, it was not good, but as long as casualties were low, the anger never reached a critical mass. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan had no significant impact on the economy or oil markets in the manner that this war has had. It’s difficult to see this war lead to a scenario where the impact on the global economy is insignificant enough not to translate to political changes. If you look at the polls, the top issues motivating people in this election are inflation and gas prices, all due to the Iran war. Corruption ranks even higher, but both sides believe the other is corrupt, whereas with the Iran war, there’s no debate about who started it and why. The risk of escalation is far greater than the opportunities for de-escalation, which does not lend itself to an endless, low-intensity war that just continues. It could be a long war with highs and lows, still costly, but not just simmering in the background.

[Interviewer:]

Real quick, put a number on it. You believe there’s going to be another round starting this weekend. Since you like percentages, put a percentage on it.

[Trita Parsi:]

I put it at 90%. It could only change if Trump changes his mind. He’s been on the point of approving something and changed his mind seven times. We can’t have a situation like this continue without him agreeing at some point. That’s why the odds are the way they are. He’s not going to constantly back off last minute. At some point, he’s going to say yes, go through with it, and all of us are going to pay the price for it.

[Interviewer:]

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, always appreciate your analysis. Thank you so much for joining us.

[Trita Parsi:]

Thank you so much. Appreciate it.