Every year between February and May, when mahua flowers begin to fall, Mamta Tigga collects them. Mamta comes from a village in Gumla in the Indian state of Jharkhand and has been collecting mahua (a flower from Madhuca longifolia), gethi kanda (or air potato, Dioscorea bulbifera) and tendu leaves from the Indian ebony tree (Diospyros melanoxylon) for the past three years. All of these plants are important sources of food, medicine and other traditional uses in her culture. Mamta is not just a tribal gatherer, but a homemaker and a mother of two children. Over the years, she has noticed a change in what the forest gives her. “There is less mahua than before,” she says, and the amount changes with the weather. When there is more heat, more mahua falls and when it rains, the mahua flower sheds off. “This year there was less mahua, between March to April we usually collect around 4-5 quintal [100 kilograms or 220 pounds] but this time due to excessive rain we got around 25 kg of mahua.” Forest produce is an essential source of income for families like Mamta’s. Her husband is a driver, and often, when they are short on money, the funds collected by selling mahua help them survive. But what happens when the resources people depend on begin to change, while the demand for those products continues to grow? A recent review in the journal Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems examines this question in the Indian states of Jharkhand…This article was originally published on Mongabay

For most Indigenous peoples in the Bolivian Amazon, the forest is far more than a collection of trees. It is the casa grande, Spanish for “the main house”, where communities, rivers, wildlife, spiritual beings and ancestral memories coexist. For them, conserving the forest means conserving life itself. Yet data analyzed by Amazonía Traficada (Trafficked Amazon) — a journalistic collaboration backed by the Pulitzer Center in partnership with Mongabay, Bolivian independent environmental journalism platform RAI Bolivia and the multiplatform newsroom Asuntos Centrales — show that this casa grande is now under siege. According to the analysis, between 2003 and 2023, more than 186,500 hectares (460,900 acres) of forest were cleared across the 48 Indigenous territories of the Bolivian Amazon basin — an area nearly three times the size of Madrid. Of that total, the Bolivian Authority for the Supervision and Social Control of Forests and Land (ABT) authorized only 10%; the remaining 90%, or 168,670 hectares (416,800 acres), was cleared illegally. For Rivelino Segundo, leader of Isoso — the Bolivian Indigenous territory with the largest area of illegal forest clearing, more than 43,000 hectares (106,000 acres) — the deforestation eating into ancestral lands is directly tied to land invasions and an expanding agricultural frontier. Those occupying the land illegally seek to convert forest into farmland, he told Mobgabay: “We are not the ones clearing the land. It is the invaders. [In Isoso], they do it to plant large-scale soy. We, as the Guaraní Indigenous people, coexist with nature.” These findings stem…This article was originally published on Mongabay

Seabird protections drew debate at the annual meeting of the Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT), held Oct. 5-8 in Brussels. The eight-member multilateral body that manages the stock has long struggled to curb seabird deaths caused by longline fishing targeting southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) across several oceans. This year’s meeting saw a modicum of progress on the issue. Based on recent modeling, the parties agreed on 13 priority seabird species for conservation efforts and designated high-risk areas for them. However, the designations don’t carry any new mandatory protections: Due to the reluctance of some members, the commission stopped short of adopting proposed conservation measures for the high-risk areas, most notably tighter seabird bycatch mitigation requirements. Oliver Yates, head of the marine program at BirdLife International, a U.K.-based NGO, told Mongabay that the identification of high-risk areas was “a good step forward” but said it was a problem that “they’ve not then adopted any management action to accompany the fishing activity in those spatial areas.” “[T]hey recognise bycatch of seabirds is a very serious issue but again agreed to do nothing about it,” Yates, who attended the Brussels meeting, added in a text message. There are more than a dozen RFMOs in the world, with some overlapping geographically but managing different fish stocks. The map shows the five best-known and most commercially important RFMOs, which focus on tuna and tuna-like species. Image courtesy of Pew Charitable Trusts. Sources: U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO Map Catalog.…This article was originally published on Mongabay

Belize is turning to its deep waters to fulfill its pledge to protect 30% of its ocean and achieve the sixth milestone of its Blue Bond agreement. A draft marine spatial plan submitted on Sept. 8 for government approval proposes closing the final gap to 30% by establishing three offshore marine protected areas (MPAs). Officials say the choice serves two ends at once: protecting distinctive deepwater features the country has never fully safeguarded, and steering clear of the coastal grounds fishers depend on. The decision to protect offshore areas emerged from previously agreed criteria for establishing marine protected areas, according to Samir Rosado, who led the plan’s development as head of marine spatial planning at the government’s Coastal Zone Management Authority & Institute (CZMAI). “These criteria contain social as well as ecological considerations for the identification of the areas,” Rosado told Mongabay in an email. “Overwhelmingly, stakeholders expressed their absolute reluctance to increase protections in nearshore areas as they believe this space was already saturated. A gap analysis was done on the representation of ecosystems within the existing MPA network, and it confirmed this.” With more than 50% of Belize’s corals and nearly 40% of its seagrass already within MPAs, he said the underrepresented features of Belize’s MPA network were in the deep. For local fishers who pushed back hard against earlier proposals to close traditional inshore fishing grounds instead, the new zones, sitting well beyond the waters where they work, are welcome. However, experts say this decision is unlikely…This article was originally published on Mongabay

CHIANG MAI, Thailand — Global wildlife trade authorities say Cambodia has made little progress in cleaning up its monkey export industry, a year after the country was flagged as needing major reforms in how it manages the capture, breeding, and export of monkeys used in biomedical research. In November 2025, following years of controversies, the secretariat of CITES, the global wildlife trade convention, issued a series of recommendations to Cambodia. In a document released Oct. 5, CITES stated that limited improvements to Cambodia’s monkey farm governance mean it “cannot confirm or rule out the occurrence of fraud or corruption” in the country’s trade of long-tailed macaques, a species listed as endangered. The statement comes ahead of the Nov. 2-6 CITES Standing Committee meeting in Geneva, where parties to the convention will assess progress made by countries placed under review. Countries unable to meet CITES standards can face trade bans. Monkey poaching has reportedly declined in Cambodia as the populations and habitats of long-tailed macaques are believed to have declined in recent years. Images supplied by source. Cambodia has faced widespread condemnation since a five-year United States Fish and Wildlife Services (USFWS) investigation found substantial evidence of Cambodian monkey farms laundering wild-caught monkeys as captive-bred. This, experts have warned, heightens the risk of zoonotic disease spillover — the transmission of pathogens from wildlife to humans — while also posing a threat to Cambodia’s wild population of long-tailed macaques (Macaca fascicularis), which dropped between 50% and 70% in the last three decades.…This article was originally published on Mongabay

In recent years, there has been a steady stream of ocean conservation pledges, from French Polynesia extending marine protection across its nearly 5 million-square-kilometer exclusive economic zone, including more than 1 million square kilometers of highly or fully protected waters, to the Eastern Tropical Pacific Marine Corridor (CMAR), where Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Panama agreed to establish a contiguous, transboundary safe passage of more than 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles) for migratory species. There is also much greater recognition of the contributions made by traditional stewards, including Indigenous communities, artisanal fishers, and other coastal communities. On paper, at least, this would seem to bode well for progress toward protecting 30% of the ocean by 2030. Yet at the same time that these announcements are being made, we also hear about “paper parks” — those protected in name only — industrial fishing vessels entering protected areas, boats turning off their transponders, and abandoned fishing gear drifting through supposedly protected waters. Coral reef in the Pacific. Photo by Rhett Ayers Butler / Mongabay Over the summer, looking across academic literature and Mongabay’s multilingual coverage, I tried to pin down what the evidence actually shows about marine conservation outcomes in the Americas. Merging peer-reviewed datasets with field reporting has its limitations, but it helps bridge a common divide: studies document broader ecological trends, while journalists track the political compromises and enforcement lapses that shape what happens on the water. Unsurprisingly, the central takeaway is that marine conservation is most likely to…This article was originally published on Mongabay

Residents of Phra Samut Chedi, one of Thailand’s most erosion-prone districts, have long struggled against coastal erosion. It’s located in the muddy heart of the Chao Phraya River Delta, where Bangkok’s major watercourse empties into the Gulf of Thailand. Here, roughly 20-60 meters (about 66-200 feet) of land is claimed by the sea annually, eating into farmland and forcing families to relocate their homes. However, a new study suggests a new coastal defense system based on artificial mangrove roots could offer struggling communities some respite. Trialed at 11 sites in Phra Samut Chedi and other parts of Samut Prakan province over 15 months, the nature-inspired system encouraged a varying amount of sediment deposition at 10 of the sites, according to the study published in Ocean & Coastal Management. Success varied by site, ranging from 16-88 centimeters (6-35 inches) of sediment retention, depending on localized conditions. By helping stabilize the shoreline, the researchers say the system could potentially function as an effective hybrid nature-based solution — a mechanism whereby engineered or “bioinspired” structures work in consort with natural ecological processes, such as mangrove restoration. Butsawan Bidorn, senior author of the study and an assistant professor of coastal engineering at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, said the dynamic nature of the Chao Phraya Delta means rapid and accessible solutions are key. “Aquaculture farmers sent us a video of the waves hitting their dikes,” Butsawan told Mongabay in an interview. “By the next day, the dike had collapsed and they’d lost everything. They need…This article was originally published on Mongabay

“It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets.” — Voltaire (1694-1778) A government that claims the authority to kill persons after they have been subdued, disarmed, tried, convicted and confined in prison has made a startling claim about the nature of […]

On 1 October 2026, Jeffrey Isaac Jarquin, a 35-year-old Nicaraguan man, was deported from the United States by ICE and, on arrival in Managua, was immediately sent to prison by Nicaraguan authorities. Reports described him as a “torture victim,” a “political prisoner,” and a “prominent figure in the anti-government protests” that occurred in Nicaragua in […]

“The wet markets in Laos are like wildlife parks; however, while you can only look at the animals in our zoos back in China, the wild animals in Lao markets can be eaten.” So proclaimed a Chinese vlogger as he toured a wildlife market. As he explored, he filmed himself showing off bear paws, various birds, dried rats, monitor lizards, and a live pangolin in his hands. The Chinese Embassy in Laos has issued repeated warnings to citizens that “Lao law prohibits the sale of ivory, rhinoceros horns, pangolins, and other wildlife products. Violators will be punished by law.” But vloggers continue to imply, incorrectly, that such sales are legal. “Brothers, look at what this is. This is not a zoo, but a wet market in Laos. The owner just weighed it and said it’s 3.3 kilograms for 1,200 Chinese yuan [about $54 per kilo or $24.60 per pound]. Back in China, let alone 3.3 kilograms, even for a single scale, you would have to go to jail,” he added, referring to the pangolin. Videos like this are easily found on Chinese social media platforms — WeChat Channels (known as Weixin Channels in mainland China), Douyin, and Xiaohongshu — using Chinese search terms like 老挝穿山甲 (Laowo chuanshanjia or Lao pangolin); 老挝野味 (laowo yewei or Lao wild game); and 老挝熊掌 (Laowo xiongzhang or Lao bear paw). With the opening of the China-Laos Railway in 2021 and the lifting of China’s pandemic lockdowns in early 2023, Laos has become a top choice…This article was originally published on Mongabay

El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern that involves unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean can alter atmospheric circulation and significantly influence rainfall and temperatures patterns far beyond the ocean, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The WMO, the United Nations’ weather agency, says this warming is already underway and getting stronger. In an Oct. 8 update, it put the chance of an El Niño continuing through February 2027 at nearly 100%. It expects the event to be strongest in December. Regional forecasters predict a 90% chance of heavier-than-usual rain in southern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia and northeastern Kenya between October and December 2026. Excessive rainfall could cause flooding, destroy crops, spread disease and make health services inaccessible in some areas, depending on local conditions and the season. A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) map illustrates typical seasonal rainfall shifts associated with El Niño, rather than a specific forecast for 2026. Graphic courtesy of NOAA. Action Against Hunger, an international aid organization, says families in southern Madagascar are enduring food shortages earlier than usual following a season of poor harvests. Its teams are treating children for malnourishment, as households continue to endure worsening food insecurity. Cuts in aid are also making help to tackle malnourishment harder to obtain. The United Nations International Children’s Fund (UNICEF) reported on Aug. 21 that 205 health and nutrition facilities in Somalia had closed because of funding cuts, forcing families to travel farther to find care.…This article was originally published on Mongabay

Home of the world’s largest biodiversity, the Brazilian Amazon is one of the main hubs for international wildlife trafficking. Every day, thousands of animals are taken from the rainforest to be sold in other parts of the country and abroad. Despite its key role in this illegal market, there is still a lack of information about wildlife trafficking in the region. ​ Data on animal seizures is scattered at the municipal, state and federal levels. The lack of an integrated system, along with the region’s vast territories and porous international borders, makes it difficult to get a full picture of wildlife trafficking in the rainforest. ​ “Every river you travel on in the Amazon will have traffic incidents,” conservation intelligence specialist Antônio de Carvalho, from the conservation NGO WCS Brazil, told Mongabay in a phone interview. ​ WCS Brazil is currently working on a Global Wildlife Trafficking Observatory, which will rely on artificial intelligence to gather information about wildlife trafficking from news websites and academic researchers. The goal is to support the work of investigators, environmental agents and journalists. ​ “A lot of data on seizures is lost because the seizure is simply carried out and the animals are released right there on the spot, and that doesn’t even make it into official statistics,” Carvalho said. The zebra pleco (Hypancistrus zebra) lives only in a small stretch of the Xingu River, in Pará, and is highly coveted as an ornamental fish. Image courtesy of Birger A. In another attempt to…This article was originally published on Mongabay

TSHAKHUMA, South Africa — Divhani Rashaka moved up and down the yard of the homestead he has looked after for 26 years, looking toward the Tshamugwana River. He recounted experiencing several floods in the time he has lived here. The riverbed, a few meters from his house in the Tshakhuma area of Limpopo province in the north of South Africa, is now covered with tall grass and bushes. Channels carved into the ground during the January floods show where water found its way toward the house. Rashaka, who is a resident of Tshiswiswini village, has placed stones along some of the channels in an effort to slow or redirect the water if heavy rains return. Farther up the yard, between his house and his neighbor’s, the grass had also grown thick, but Rashaka and his neighbor cleared the area to allow water to pass through more easily. Beyond these small measures, Rashaka has no formal plan for protecting his homestead, should it flood again. In January, floods affected communities across Limpopo, killing people, damaging homes and infrastructure, washing away food and disrupting schooling and access to some areas. Tshakhuma was among the communities badly affected. During these floods, 21 families whose homes were badly damaged were relocated to temporary accommodation at a lodge in Nkuna village, about 20 kilometers (12 miles) away, while temporary residential units were being prepared. If another flood comes, Rashaka said, he will have to rely on those around him. “I can seek shelter from my…This article was originally published on Mongabay

After decades of losses, new data show the world’s mangrove forests are beginning to rebound. It marks a modest but significant turnaround for the salt-tolerant coastal trees and shrubs, which provide vital ecosystem services, including carbon storage, habitat for thousands of species and protection from storms and erosion. Global mangrove cover increased by 477 square kilometers (184 square miles) between 1985 and 2025, according to the latest Global Mangrove Watch (GMW) data released in July. Restoration and stronger protections drove the modest net gains, which represent a 0.3% increase over four decades. The new assessment follows a separate study, published in June, that reached a similar conclusion about overall growth in mangrove cover. GMW, a mapping initiative of the NGO consortium known as the Global Mangrove Alliance, has tracked mangrove gains and losses since 2011. In this third update, researchers used 10-meter (33-foot) resolution satellite imagery and machine learning to map changes in mangrove cover across 108 countries. It’s the first of the updates to span a 39-year period, from 1985 to 2024, according to Lammert Hilarides, the GMW program lead at the Netherlands-based NGO Wetlands International. The previous version only tracked changes in the data since 1996, covering about 24 years. “The importance of tracking changes in mangroves lies in the need to have accurate information if you want to successfully halt loss, protect and restore mangroves,” Hilarides told Mongabay by email. He added that the new data show significant differences between regions, countries and the timing of gains…This article was originally published on Mongabay

A backlash is building against an EU ‘omnibus’ bill that seeks to make it easier to authorise and use pesticides across the bloc. 

MEPs are still yet to set a date to vote on the European Commission’s proposal to extend how long pesticide active substances can stay approved in the EU, amid a series of protest letters from scientists, UN health experts, and divisions among member states. 

EI parliament’s environment and agriculture committees were originally expected to hold a joint vote on a compromise text on 5 October, but shelved that date without proposing another as this article went to publication. 

Sustained criticism has come from the scientific community. 

Last month, a group of more than 500 scientists signed an open letter to the commission on 16 September demanding a pause on the file pending “an independent assessment, whether carried out by parliament’s own research service or by an equivalent independent body.” 

And last week, a group of five UN health experts penned their own letter to the EU executive.

They warned that the commission’s plan to extend grace periods for products withdrawn on safety grounds, widen derogations for hazardous substances, and restrict the use of the latest independent scientific evidence “seem difficult to reconcile with the precautionary principle and with obligations to respect, protect and fulfil human rights, including the rights of peasants and other people working in rural areas”. 

This article continues, but the full version is available only to EUobserver.com subscribers. Visit account.euobserver.com/membership

A Chinese-controlled coal mine in South Africa’s Limpopo province is moving toward full production even as a legal challenge mounted by a coalition of community members and environmental groups remains unresolved amid concerns about water security in the region. Kinetic Development Group controls MC Mining, whose Makhado hard-coking-coal project is expected to reach steady-state operation by the end of the year. Earlier this year, the Hong Kong-listed Kinetic group acquired a 51% stake in MC Mining for $90 million. The open-cast mine lies within the Vhembe Biosphere Reserve, which includes the Mapungubwe Cultural Landscape, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, and the Ramsar-designated Makuleke wetlands. Environmental groups say clearing for the mine has destroyed sensitive habitat, including protected baobab and marula trees native to the region’s savannas and woodlands. The Makhado mine’s coal-handling and processing plant (CHPP). Image courtesy of MC Mining. Contested environmental authorization Makhado’s developers first received an environmental authorization, or EA, in August 2013. This original authorization has been amended several times over the years, and one such amendment has become highly controversial. In May 2021, the then-Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) amended the Makhado EA to remove a condition that required mining to begin by a fixed deadline. In June 2021, a coalition of community, farming, and environmental groups appealed the decision to remove the deadline. (The DMRE has since become the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources.) The appellants argued the DMRE had effectively given the project an open-ended authorization without proper public participation…This article was originally published on Mongabay

KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysia’s coastal waters are home to 27 species of marine mammals. These include protected species like the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis), Irrawaddy dolphins (Orcaella brevirostris), Indo-Pacific finless porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides), dugongs (Dugong dugon) and Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus). But few Malaysians know about these sea animals, and even fewer are aware that there is a scientist who studies the vocal communications of these aquatic mammals. Meet Saliza Bono, the bioacoustics officer at MareCet, the country’s only NGO dedicated to research and conservation of marine mammals. Saliza, 32, who also leads the NGO’s Langkawi Dolphin Research Project, studies marine mammal sounds, as she believes learning about these animals is the first step toward saving them. Her research focuses on the impacts of underwater noise, particularly on Indo-Pacific humpback and Irrawaddy dolphins in Malaysia. Saliza Bono is a bioacoustician at Malaysia’s only marine mammal conservation organization, MareCet. Image courtesy of MareCet. In an interview with Mongabay via video call, the marine biologist discusses her journey into bioacoustics, how underwater noise pollution impacts dolphin behavior and the challenges of her research. Mongabay: How did you get interested in becoming a bioacoustician? Saliza Bono: I think I saw my very first dolphin when I was in Australia. As a 10-year-old, I was amazed at how these are mammals. They have lungs like us but live underwater. I was so curious, and I wanted to know more. Then I heard the term “marine scientist,” and I knew I wanted to…This article was originally published on Mongabay

For Boston Magazine, Kara Baskin explores a growing subculture of tweens and teens who don’t feel entirely human. Some identify as one animal, like a cat or a dog; others identify with multiple animals. One kid Baskin speaks to, Sol, says she “doesn’t summon the animals, but rather they come and go on their own schedule.” These young people call themselves therians (distinct from furries, who are fans of anthropomorphic animal characters). Baskin provides a fascinating glimpse into a world where adolescents can express themselves and explore their identities.

Bafflement is the baseline condition of raising kids right now. The adolescent quest for self-discovery is timeless—but today’s parents experimented in ways that were analog: new hairstyles, inscrutable music, beer snuck in the woods. Their own parents might not have liked it, but they could at least relate.

Now the landscape of adolescent discovery is literally foreign, thanks to social media, which has turbocharged once-obscure subcultures like the furry fandom—and, at its rarer edge, therianthropy—and redefined what “fringe” even means. Even if a kid is the only therian at school, she can find 400 more people just like her online. That’s one of the biggest challenges for parents in the algorithm age: The world your kid actually lives in is one you can’t enter. It touches the fear in every parent, therian kid or not: What happens when our kids inhabit a world we don’t understand, with idols we don’t recognize?

In recent years, a series of high-profile investigations implicated the Chinese fleets targeting squid in international waters in illegal fishing practices, environmental violations, and poor working conditions, including forced labor and deaths at sea. They’ve also identified abusive working conditions in Chinese squid-processing factories. The revelations received widespread public attention, including from elected officials in the U.S. and Europe. Yet a Mongabay analysis shows that Western markets have continued to import Chinese squid products in large quantities. The findings raise concerns about regulatory gaps, lack of transparency and consumer awareness, and the difficulty of adopting effective measures to prevent products linked to abuses from entering the market. “For us, the main problem is that the product, in this case from the Chinese fleet, enters the European market and is difficult to distinguish,” Edelmiro Ulloa, director of the Vigo Shipowners’ Cooperative in Spain, told Mongabay. According to Ulloa, the Spanish fleet, which is based in Vigo and fishes for squid primarily in international waters off Argentina, faces unfair competition. “On Chinese vessels, the working conditions are not only poor, but truly worrying,” he said. According to Ulloa, differences in production standards, including lower labor costs, result in Chinese squid prices being as much as 40% lower than Spanish squid prices. In 2025, China was the world’s leading exporter of frozen squid and cuttlefish products, which represent the vast majority of international trade in these species, with a total export value of $1.6 billion, according to data from ITC Trade Map, a…This article was originally published on Mongabay

Last month, a coalition of economists, politicians and AI experts released a report entitled Transformative AI Strategy for Europe. It provides yet more disturbing analysis of Europe’s deep dependency on overseas providers of essential AI. The concept of ‘Transformational AI’ is clearly gaining currency among policy elites as are the dangers it represents.

Co-signatory of the report, ex vice president of the European Commission, Margaret Vestager rightly comments: “We cannot allow Europe to become a playground for foreign powers. Our citizens are already bearing the economic and social consequences of decisions taken elsewhere. AI will accelerate this development, transforming our personal lives and relations, learning and jobs at an unprecedented pace.” 

Unrelated to the report, European Central Bank chair Christine Lagarde has also said: “A withdrawal of access [to AI models], or a change in its terms, would … reach every ​sector at once … That is leverage of a kind no trade partner has ever ​held over Europe, and it could be used in any negotiation, on tariffs or on digital taxes, for example.”

This is going to be expensive

Yet the solutions proposed by this assembly of experts would exacerbate, not mitigate, the control over European economy and society currently wielded by a handful of ultra-dominant, mainly US-headquartered, corporations.

Two approaches are outlined by the signatories of the report. One is to invest and build European frontier models to compete and participate as equals in the transformation AI economy. This, however, is almost immediately written off as too costly and too high risk to undertake.

The second, strongly recommended route, suggests trading power and land for access to frontier models – Europe will fast-track Big Tech build out on European soil in exchange for “guaranteed” preferential access to their frontier models.

This is little more than capitulation to the dominance of that handful of mega corporations under the control of foreign regimes. It is ironically resonant, in times when we speak of frontier models, of Native Americans trading land for a few trinkets – and we know how well that worked out.

Naïve expectation

It is naïve in the extreme to expect to negotiate lasting privileged access to frontier models in return for power and land in Europe. For one thing – Big Tech already has this access. Europe has a weak hand if trying to extract conditions in return for inward investment to build capacity that it needs.

In addition, current behaviours suggest that corporations and nation states already appreciate and are leveraging the economic and political power that possession of leading frontier models confers. Export restrictions on latest models are already in place, as are mark-ups of 20-50 percent to run models within defined jurisdictional boundaries, like EU clouds. 

Recent news unwittingly confirmed that the largest AI developers already guard and retain their best models for themselves. To solve part of the Navier-Stokes equation, a notoriously unsolvable maths riddle, OpenAI used, “a tool only used within the company, as it is “significantly more capable” than the company’s most recent AI model release.”

This clearly illustrates that OpenAI, and surely others, are keeping the best models to use internally. It is therefore inconceivable that Europe, or anyone, will really be able to negotiate access to the true frontier – we would be paying more for a worse model. This is not how you get ahead.

Surrender is not an option

Europe needs sovereign capacity and models to benefit from, rather than become subject to, transformational AI. Europe does not have to accept the Big Tech narrative on what or where the frontier is. Deciding for ourselves how AI can and should be deployed to have the most beneficial impact and best support European values is within our control and is our responsibility.

Regulation gets a bad rap, but one reason we have regulation is to enforce the values we share as Europeans. We care about product safety, fairness, and personal freedom. We do not accept intellectual property theft at massive scale in the name of technological innovation.

We may never catch-up to the US or Chinese frontier Large Language Models, but perhaps we should not blindly accept this as the right race to run. Asking ourselves how can AI positively transform what we already value in Europe must be the first question: what do we really want AI for? Then, perhaps Europe can work on its own large but focused AI models to leapfrog and create AI transformation that matters to us and conforms to our ideals and values. 

First, stop digging!

Action is clearly needed, and urgently. But the first step cannot be to negotiate away our assets be they land, power, data or values as part of a surrender to the status quo ante bellum.

The saying goes that when you find yourself in a hole (as Europe most surely is) stop digging. That means, as of now, stop giving new workloads to overseas AI and cloud giants by default.

We already have European alternatives for the majority of cloud services, and for AI, there are both European and open weight models that run with European providers – why are we not using them? Where there are gaps, we can develop bespoke European solutions with European providers. This creates reliable demand for homegrown AI models and compute capacity. It allows sovereign models to train and improve on sovereign data. Crucially, it deprives oversees models from using our data, resources and energy to further cement their control and dominance.

Buy or build European

Nudging public procurement towards European players grows the market and creates reliable demand against which venture capital and corporate funds can invest.

Only by flipping the paradigm – so that the default action is to consider how can we use or create a European solution first – can we fully prepare for the AI transformation and maintain our sovereign control.