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Brazil Prepares High-Security Logistics For Runoff Vote

23 October 2026 at 19:52

The Superior Electoral Court enforces free public transport mandates and monitors vote access nationwide.

The Brazilian presidential campaign has entered its final stage ahead of the runoff vote scheduled for October 25, 2026. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a candidate for the Liberal Party (PL), after a competitive first-round election on October 4, 2026.

RELATED:
Lula Proposes Constitutional Amendment for Free Weekend Transit in Brazil

The general election results established a narrow margin between the top two candidates. In the first round of voting, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished first, securing 47.03 percent of valid votes, or 56,103,033 ballots. Incumbent President Lula da Silva finished second, receiving 45.16 percent, or 53,870,724 ballots.

Turnout remained consistent with historical participation figures, reaching approximately 79 percent of registered voters. Lula maintained a structural lead throughout the Northeast region, winning majorities in key states such as Bahia, Pernambuco, and Ceará.

Economic indicators and social policy debates formed the primary foundation for candidate speeches throughout the first round. In campaign speeches, President Lula highlighted the accomplishments of his current administration, citing expanding employment rates, social assistance programs, and inflation control measures implemented since 2023.

Flávio Bolsonaro focused his campaign speeches on public security concerns, national debt levels, and economic challenges, presenting his platform as a continuation of conservative governance under his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who remains legally barred from holding office.

Street Mobilization and Electoral Propaganda Networks

Campaign operations shifted toward intensive physical rallies and structured broadcast messaging during the runoff period. The Workers’ Party (PT) and its broader political coalition centered their ground mobilization around major urban centers and traditional working-class strongholds.

Popular social movements, including the Landless Workers Movement (MST) and the Homeless Workers Movement (MTST), along with trade union confederations such as the Unified Workers’ Central (CUT), coordinated door-to-door canvassing operations and public rallies in major metropolitan areas including São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Salvador.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s ground strategy relied heavily on state-level executive endorsements and conservative municipal networks. Key allies, including re-elected conservative governors from São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro, organized regional logistics to boost conservative voter turnout.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign speeches during street rallies emphasized hardline public security measures, moral issues, and support for the agribusiness sector, utilizing alliances with conservative caucus members in Congress to secure local political support.

Broadcast media exposure operated under the free electoral advertising time framework regulated by the Superior Electoral Court. The regulations ensured equal daily broadcast time across television and radio networks for both finalists during the runoff window.

Parallel to traditional broadcast propaganda, digital media networks expanded rapidly. Both campaign organizations directed significant funding toward micro-targeted online advertising and social media distribution channels to capture voters outside traditional media formats.

Digital outreach strategies diverged between the two operational teams. Lula’s digital apparatus utilized organized volunteer networks, endorsements from cultural figures, and policy fact sheets distributed through verified messaging channels.

The Flávio Bolsonaro campaign relied on decentralized messaging channels, emphasizing direct-to-voter video distribution, security rhetoric, and critiques of government institutions.

WHO'S THE REAL THIEF? LULA CHALLENGES BOLSONARO TO SHOW RECORDS

Ahead of Brazil’s presidential election, Brazilian President Lula da Silva publicly challenged rival Flávio Bolsonaro to open his bank accounts, release his phone records, and let the Brazilian people decide who… pic.twitter.com/U6Ge0yOV6A

— Sovereign Media (@sov_media) October 21, 2026

Meta, Disinformation, and Electoral Defense

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) established strict administrative parameters to govern political content across major social networks, focusing heavily on Meta’s platforms, Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

Electoral judicial resolutions prohibited paid digital political advertising in the final 48 hours leading up to the October 25 vote, restricted automated messaging software, and required tech platforms to execute judicial content removal mandates within expedited timeframes.

Monitoring reports submitted to electoral authorities by digital rights watchdogs and research institutes identified recurring patterns in content dissemination across Meta’s channels.

Independent audits logged instances of dark ads, unverified allegations targeting electoral integrity, and micro-targeted digital campaigns deployed in private messaging groups.

Meta adjusted its content moderation operations in Brazil to comply with TSE directives, expanding its ad library transparency protocols and updating content review procedures.

The company reported the removal of non-compliant posts and the deactivation of unauthorized bulk-messaging networks. Despite these technical platform adjustments, electoral oversight bodies noted that closed messaging networks remained a primary vector for unverified political narratives due to end-to-end encryption limitations.

Broad Coalitions, Strategic Endorsements, and Voter Demographics

The transition from the October 4 first round to the October 25 runoff required both campaigns to expand beyond their primary ideological bases.

President Lula da Silva maintained a broad front coalition uniting left-wing parties with center-right political figures. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin returned as Lula’s running mate, reinforcing ties with business sectors and moderate electors, while key cabinet figures and allied governors led outreach campaign efforts aimed at consolidating anti-far-right voter segments.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro expanded his campaign footprint by consolidating conservative regional power structures and legislative blocks. Selecting PL lawmaker Alfredo Gaspar as his vice-presidential running mate, a former prosecutor and public security secretary from Alagoas, Flávio Bolsonaro sought to bolster his law-and-order platform while solidifying backing among conservative lawmakers in Congress.

Flávio’s runoff effort secured endorsement commitments from conservative state governors, agribusiness associations, and international right-wing figures, reinforcing his position across traditional conservative strongholds.

Incumbent President Lula retained consistent lead margins among female voters, lower-income households earning up to two minimum wages, residents in the Northeast region, and older age demographics.

Conversely, Flávio Bolsonaro maintained stronger support metrics among male voters, higher-income earners, Evangelical Christian voters, and electors situated in the agribusiness-heavy South, Southeast, and Center-West regions.

Both campaign organizations directed their final operational focus toward undecided voters and middle-income suburban districts in the key battleground states of Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo.

Lula's campaign says Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp are muffling the left days before the October 25 vote. Meta blames glitches.https://t.co/qdSD2z01ny pic.twitter.com/SfYhdxpi4L

— The Brazilian Report (@BrazilianReport) October 20, 2026

Debate Performances, Fact-Checking, and Media Coverage

The televised presidential debates between incumbent President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro emerged as decisive turning points during the three-week runoff window. Major media coalitions organized direct face-to-face encounters, allowing the candidates to present competing vision frameworks for Brazil’s governance.

During the live broadcast exchanges, President Lula focused his arguments on economic stability, job creation, and social progress achieved during his term, emphasizing the expansion of public investments, inflation control, and environmental protection initiatives.

Lula confronted Flávio Bolsonaro on fiscal proposals, judicial integrity, and the anti-democratic precedents associated with the far-right movement.

In response, Flávio Bolsonaro framed his candidacy around conservative public security policies, government austerity, and tax reforms. Flávio heavily criticized the economic administration’s public debt metrics and targeted the federal judiciary, presenting his campaign as a necessary alternative to political continuity.

Mainstream media coverage focused heavily on candidate posture, tone, and strategic attempts to appeal to the estimated 10 percent of undecided voters heading into the final days of the race.

Brazil’s top electoral court has said it will fine Meta $200,000 a day until it can prove that president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro get equal treatment on its platforms.

Last week, a judge at Brazil’s top electoral court ruled that… pic.twitter.com/AWLGPT6mKT

— Novara Media (@novaramedia) October 21, 2026

Election Day Execution, Institutional Resilience, and Regional Impact

Supervised directly by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), voting logistics across all 26 states and the Federal District rely on fully digitized electronic voting machines (urnas eletrônicas) to ensure rapid processing and secure transmission of total ballots.

To facilitate maximum democratic access, federal judicial rulings mandated free public transportation (passe livre) across capital cities, while electoral inspectors monitored security forces to prevent voter transportation disruptions or targeted law enforcement checkpoints.

Following the October 4 first round, where Flávio Bolsonaro led with 47.03 percent (56,104,503 votes) against Lula’s 45.16 percent (53,879,538 votes), both organizations focused their final operational pushes on key battleground states like Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo.

The outcome of the October 25 vote carries far-reaching geopolitical implications across Latin America and the broader global stage. A victory for President Lula would ensure the continuation of active multilateral diplomacy, regional integration through BRICS and CELAC, and strong federal commitments to Amazonian environmental conservation.

Conversely, a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would mark a significant resurgence for the continental far-right, shifting Brazil’s diplomatic alignment toward conservative international blocs and introducing sweeping changes to domestic fiscal and environmental policy frameworks.

Sources: Brasil de Fato – Agência Brasil – Gov.br – O Globo – Folha de S.Paulo – O Estado de S.Paulo – El País – CNN Brasil – EFE – Instituto Tricontinental – La Base América Latina – Diario Re

DOJ Seeks to Block Alaska Election Result if Republican Loses. Is This a Test Case?

23 October 2026 at 18:39
The lawsuit invokes voter confusion over two candidates named Dan Sullivan, but its narrow conditions raise questions about the administration’s broader intentions

Friday’s Campaign Round-Up, 10.23.26: Kamala Harris rallies for Colom in Mississippi

23 October 2026 at 17:21

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items from across the country.

* In Mississippi’s unexpectedly interesting U.S. Senate race, former Vice President Kamala Harris headlined a rally in support of local prosecutor Scott Colom, the Democratic nominee.

“Mississippi matters!” Harris shouted to thunderous cheers at Thursday’s event.

The rally came on the heels of Donald Trump’s political operation confirming that the president will hold a rally on Monday in hopes of boosting Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, who’s struggling to a surprising degree in a race the GOP long assumed would be easy.

The news coincides with an Axios report that said Senate Republicans are so concerned about the Mississippi race that it’s “weighing a cash infusion” for the contest.

* In Maine’s closely watched U.S. Senate race, the latest Fox News poll found Democrat Troy Jackson and incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins tied, with each garnering 49% support.

* In Kansas’ closely watched U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall has finally sold his house in Florida. The sale was finalized the same day early voting began in Kansas.

* In Texas’ closely watched U.S. Senate race, The New York Times reported that a covert Russian influence operation is targeting Democratic state Rep. James Talarico’s candidacy as part of an apparent effort to boost Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton.

* Speaking of Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott recently boasted about endorsements he received from several Democratic sheriffs, but The New Republic reported that some of them deny having endorsed the GOP incumbent.

* While voter turnout is expected to be strong in New Hampshire this year, there is a new hurdle for voters to keep in mind: The Supreme Court granted New Hampshire’s emergency request to block the use of student IDs for voting in the midterms.

* Over the first two weeks of October, Republican megadonor Elon Musk invested an additional $76 million to boost GOP candidates. Five months after the billionaire publicly vowed to curtail his campaign spending, Musk has now donated more than $442 million to advance the Republican cause in the 2026 cycle.

* Speaking of Republican megadonors, billionaire Jeff Yass has now invested nearly $110 million to boost GOP candidates in the midterms. Yass is also the top donor to Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican’s gubernatorial nominee in Ohio.

* And speaking of Ramaswamy, to appreciate the scope of the controversy surrounding his scandalous attack ad, it’s worth noting that 10 sitting Democratic female governors issued a joint statement on Thursday, condemning the candidate’s vile commercial as “an insult to survivors everywhere.”

The post Friday’s Campaign Round-Up, 10.23.26: Kamala Harris rallies for Colom in Mississippi appeared first on MS NOW.

Trump administration sues to block possible Democratic win in Alaska Senate race

23 October 2026 at 16:33

After months of arguments, a state judge in Alaska ruled in late June that retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan could run against incumbent Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, overturning the ruling from the Alaska Division of Elections. A few months later, after the first round of balloting, state election officials finalized the top four candidates for Alaska’s unique system, and both Dan Sullivans advanced to the general election.

That Donald Trump and his political team are worried about the race is obvious, but what the president’s team is doing about it is another matter entirely.

Late Thursday, Trump’s Justice Department filed a preemptive lawsuit that intends to block certification of the Senate race — but only if the Republican incumbent loses while the rival with the similar name remains on the ballot.

As The Associated Press reported, the litigation kicks off “what many have feared could become a lengthy battle between the U.S. government and states over certifying an election where the president’s party is struggling.”

What’s more, it’s entirely possible that former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola will win this race and the efforts by Trump’s DOJ will determine whether she’s seated — and which party ultimately holds a majority in the Senate.

The lawsuit is a dramatic escalation, but it didn’t come out of nowhere. At a White House event in early September, the president publicly urged Attorney General Todd Blanche to pursue a case in Alaska specifically focused on the competing candidates with nearly identical names.

Last week, Trump went further, claiming that federal authorities were “looking into” the matter and pushing assorted conspiracy theories for which there was no evidence. As recently as Wednesday of this week, the president used his social media platform to publish a statement that read, in part, “Dan S. Sullivan is leading by a lot, but this is CHEATING in an Election, and the Judge that allowed this to happen should be ashamed of himself. We are looking at powerful legal options to remove the fraudulent Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. from the Ballot, and holding the Democrats accountable for their Election Interference, in the pursuit of Justice and Fairness.”

The statement included obvious falsehoods — most recent polling in Alaska shows the Republican incumbent trailing, not “leading by a lot” — and there is nothing to suggest Democratic officials have engaged in “election interference,” other than championing their party’s nominee.

Nevertheless, there have long been concerns that the Trump administration might try to derail election results it doesn’t like, and the DOJ’s new lawsuit regarding Alaska suggests those concerns are well grounded.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

The post Trump administration sues to block possible Democratic win in Alaska Senate race appeared first on MS NOW.

Ramaswamy’s vile ad is dividing the Republican Party. Trump is leading the wrong side.

23 October 2026 at 16:04

Any story about a family dispute is bound to be complex, but the politics surrounding Vivek Ramaswamy’s abhorrent attack ad are relatively straightforward. Amy Acton, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Ohio, was allegedly raped by her stepfather when she was a child.

Her Republican opponent, Ramaswamy, is trying to weaponize this in despicable fashion, pushing a campaign commercial that features Acton’s estranged mother, who sided with the stepfather even after his arrest and stayed with him until his death.

But in recent days, it’s become clear that this ad has taken on far greater significance than one commercial in one gubernatorial election. As The New York Times’ Michelle Goldberg summarized in her latest column:

It’s quite a feat, in this numb and debased era, to create a political advertisement so shocking and indecent that people from across the political spectrum feel the need to denounce it. The Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who has long fashioned himself as a kind of Donald Trump 2.0 — younger and brainier but just as brash — has managed it.

By releasing what may be the most disgusting ad in American political history, he’s done more than just reveal his own low character. He’s opened a kind of proxy debate on the right about whether a post-Trump conservatism should try to reclaim some base-line morality or continue along its current smashmouth course.

Donald Trump has changed his party and his nation’s politics in a great many ways, but among the most important shifts is the degree to which the president has championed the politics of cruelty and dishonor. There are messages — from attack ads to speeches to social message postings — that Republican officials used to avoid, even when they agreed with the underlying point, in part to avoid backlash and in part to maintain their public reputations and credibility.

In recent years, however, those scruples have been cast aside. GOP officials and candidates no longer hedge on depraved messaging: After having seen Americans twice elevate a malicious television personality to the nation’s highest office, they now routinely echo his amorality and cynicism, seeing it as a way to satisfy the party’s far-right base, to advance their own ambitions or both.

Most decent people can and will agree that Ramaswamy’s attack ad is indefensible, but the ad has also taken on totemic value.

“What the ad represents … is an opening salvo in the post-midterms fight for the Republican Party’s future,” Politico’s Jonathan Martin explained. “It’s a battle that will accelerate next year but may not culminate until the 2030s. Put simply, what sort of party does the GOP want to be — and what will the market bear?”

Trailing in polls and short on options, Ramaswamy made his choice, and the stain on his character is likely to be permanent. What the Ohioan might not have anticipated, however, is just how much his disgusting tactic has divided his own party.

Several prominent Republicans in the state, including outgoing Gov. Mike DeWine, have publicly condemned the ad, and others outside of Ohio have taken similar steps. Former GOP presidential contender Nikki Haley, for example, said via social media that Ramaswamy is “a bad guy.” A day later, Rep. Ashley Hinson, the party’s Senate hopeful in Iowa, called the commercial “absolutely terrible.”

On the other side, there’s the White House, where the politics of cruelty and dishonor still thrive, and where there are Republican leaders who still believe repugnant messaging will dominate for the foreseeable future.

JD Vance, for example, declared this week that he’s “a little bit disgusted,” not by Ramaswamy’s gutter politics, but by members of his own party who are “whining” about civility.

The vice president’s reaction itself drew swift rebukes — The Bulwark published a piece that described Vance as a “sociopath” — but that didn’t stop Trump from picking up where his vice president left off.

On Wednesday, the president told reporters he didn’t “know anything about it,” before shifting gears and talking about how important he considers it to see a mother “hate her daughter that much.”

A day later, Trump went much further and spent much of Thursday defending the ad, urging Ramaswamy to keep running it, demanding the public take the underlying claims “seriously” and at Iowa rally, predicting that the ad would work in the GOP candidate’s favor.

In other words, Trump took care to keep dividing Republicans — with less than two weeks remaining, during the early voting period — in one of the nation’s most important gubernatorial races, by leaning into support for one of the most repulsive campaign ads in recent memory.

Election Day is 11 days away. Watch this space.

The post Ramaswamy’s vile ad is dividing the Republican Party. Trump is leading the wrong side. appeared first on MS NOW.

Big fish hooked in Hungary, as Orbán’s ex-bank chief placed in custody (Day 163 of the Tisza government)

23 October 2026 at 14:09

The series continues as we report on developments following April’s historic election and on the steps taken since then by the Tisza government. This week, we cover the following topics:

  • Orbán’s former right-hand man in custody.
  • What did we learn from Tisza’s first budget?
  • Ursula von der Leyen to give a speech on the anniversary of the revolution.
  • Poll of the week: more than four million people back Tisza.

Orbán’s ex-right-hand man in custody

The last time a central bank governor was taken into custody in Hungary was in 1944, during the German occupation, as Válasz Online pointed out. This 82-year hiatus ended on Wednesday (21 October), when György Matolcsy was taken into police custody.

But Matolcsy is not simply a former central bank governor; he is one of the architects of Orbán’s economic policy, a key figure in the former prime minister’s system, and together with his family he has in recent years become one of the symbols of Fidesz’s taste for luxury.

Who is György Matolcsy?

“I have a very strong emotional relationship with Matolcsy. I owe him a great deal, I have learned a great many things from him. Matolcsy is an economist of historic stature,” prime minister Péter Magyar quoted ex-prime minister Viktor Orbán’s words from an interview last November, after the former central bank governor had been taken into custody.

Matolcsy was a member of the Hungarian Socialist Workers’ Party (MSZMP), and after the regime change he became prime minister József Antall’s chief adviser. In 1999 he joined Orbán’s advisory board, and from 2000 to 2002 he served as economy minister in the first Orbán cabinet.

Even after the 2002 election defeat he remained loyal to Orbán, and in 2010 he became minister for national economy, meaning he was put in charge of both the finance and economy portfolios at the head of a merged super-ministry. It was at this time that Orbán called him his right-hand man.

Matolcsy was the architect of Orbán’s “unorthodox economic policy”; he oversaw the nationalisation of private pension funds, the sending home of the IMF from Hungary, and the introduction of high sectoral surtaxes.

The great bank heist

He was appointed central bank governor in 2013, and by 2016 the foundations scandal had already broken. It emerged that 266bn forints’ worth (€840m) of public assets had been shifted into the foundations of the Hungarian National Bank (MNB). These foundations bought buildings and works of art, and also granted substantial benefits to their own leaders.

Later, the foundations’ money was entrusted to an asset management company, which obtained further funds and thus came to control assets of around 500bn forints, of which some 400bn forints (€1bn) – was public money.

This asset manager built up an international corporate network, behind which stood the central bank governor’s son, Ádám Matolcsy, and his circle. The asset manager bought into risky foreign companies, spending a significant part of its resources. The Matolcsy family visibly became very rich, and Ádám also amassed a notorious Porsche collection.

György Matolcsy’s mandate expired in 2025, and after his departure the State Audit Office also concluded that abuses may have taken place at the central bank. For a long time, however, no police investigation was launched.

The current case

The current charges relate to a case that unfolded in the final days of Matolcsy’s activity as central bank governor. Matolcsy wanted to ensure that his family would control the roughly 500bn forints (€1.25bn) of central bank assets even after he no longer held office.

This article continues, but the full version is available only to EUobserver.com subscribers. Visit account.euobserver.com/membership

Israel is primed for unrest around election day. Is there a way out?

23 October 2026 at 13:13
There’s already violence in the streets, candidates are receiving death threats and a specter of war looms over the country. And that’s before any ballots have been counted

Datafolha Poll Shows Lula and Bolsonaro Tied at 50% Ahead of Runoff

23 October 2026 at 12:53

Both candidates remain statistically tied three days before the presidential runoff.

On Thursday, polling firm Datafolha published a survey showing far-right candidate Flavio Bolsonaro and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva tied at 50% of valid votes, three days before the presidential runoff.

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Lula Proposes Constitutional Amendment for Free Weekend Transit in Brazil

This is the first runoff poll to show a numerical tie between the two candidates and represents a two-point recovery for Lula compared with the survey released by the same firm last week.

In terms of voter intention, Bolsonaro has 47%, compared with Lula’s 46%, representing a one-percentage-point increase for the incumbent.

On Wednesday, another poll released by Quaest also showed a trend toward a narrowing gap between the two candidates, in this case with Bolsonaro leading by one point, 45% to Lula’s 44%.

Amazing turnout and energy in London yesterday in support of President Lula, ahead of his crucial election against Bolsonaro. His campaign has given hope to people around the world!

Viva Lula! 🇧🇷 pic.twitter.com/hukUDShmz2

— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) October 19, 2026

In both polls, the results amount to a statistical tie within the margin of error, which is two percentage points for each survey. For its latest poll, commissioned by television network Globo and Folha de Sao Paulo, Datafolha interviewed 2,520 voters between Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.

Bolsonaro received the most votes in the first round of the presidential election, held Oct. 4, with 47.03% of the vote, followed by Lula with 45.16%. This was the narrowest result between two candidates in the first round of a presidential election held in Brazil, demonstrating the extreme polarization of the Brazilian electorate.

In Brazil’s recent democratic history, presidential runoffs have been held seven times, and in every instance, the candidate who received the most votes in the first round has won.

On Friday, Lula and Bolsonaro will face off in the second and final televised debate and will wrap up their respective campaigns on Saturday, the day before voters head to the polls.

teleSUR/ JF

Source: EFE

Ramaswamy controversy pits Trump, Vance against Ohio GOP establishment

22 October 2026 at 23:04
The controversy over Ohio GOP gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s ad featuring his Democratic opponent Amy Acton’s mother is pitting President Trump and Vice President Vance against Ohio’s Republican establishment less than two weeks out from Election Day.  A number of Ohio Republicans, including Gov. Mike DeWine and Sen. Jon Husted, have denounced the ad, which…

Carville says he still believes Trump will quit by Easter

22 October 2026 at 21:02
Democratic strategist James Carville doubled down Wednesday on his prediction that President Trump will leave office by Easter next year. Fox News’s Laura Ingraham asked Carville during an interview on “The Ingraham Angle” if he stuck by the prediction he made earlier this year and why. Carville said he does, adding that Trump’s “not particularly…

Trump rallies in Iowa, where farmers have been hit hard by tariffs and rising fuel prices

23 October 2026 at 03:05

President Donald Trump traveled to Iowa on Thursday, looking to energize his base as he touts a financial-support plan to reassure farmers, a key constituency that has been hit hard by rising prices.

It’s another campaign trip to a reliably red state that has become surprisingly competitive. Trump won Iowa three times — carrying it by 13 points in 2024 — but this year several Republicans are in tight races.

Returning to Iowa for the first time in nearly 10 months, Trump campaigned, in part, for Rep. Ashley Hinson, the GOP Senate hopeful who is running to fill retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s seat. Hinson and her Democratic rival, state Rep. Josh Turek, are almost neck and neck in polling averages from MS NOW/FiftyPlusOne.

“There are a number of Senate seats in play that we did not expect to be in play,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster. “[Trump’s] record and his approach are likely to appeal much more to members of his base than they are to independent or swing voters.”

In Sioux City, Trump sought to appease Americans hurting from high fuel prices by announcing that his administration is using the Defense Production Act to release $150 million to increase U.S. refining capacity to produce more diesel and gas.

Trump spent the first few minutes of the rally railing against familiar political targets he has repeatedly invoked to rile up supporters at recent campaign stops, including Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn. Speaking to Iowans, Trump claimed without providing evidence that Omar used a different name to get elected and sworn into Congress, a claim the congresswoman’s spokesperson has publicly denied.

As the president attacked Omar and argued she should resign, his supporters chanted, “Lock her up.”

The president also spoke at length about a controversial attack ad by Ohio GOP gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy targeting his rival, Democrat Amy Acton. The ad features Acton’s estranged mother saying her daughter lied about being sexually assaulted by her stepfather. Trump told supporters that he asked Ramaswamy to keep running the ad and to “look upstairs and say thank you, God, very much.”

And Trump, who frequently talks about running again in 2028 — despite the Constitution’s two-term limit — again bragged he would beat any opponent if he ran, but acknowledged that, after studying the law, he has learned that there was “not a lot of wiggle room” to allow him to seek another term.

“I think I have the right to run again because they cheated,” Trump said, repeating repeating his false claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him.

Thursday’s rally at Sioux Gateway Airport is the first of at least two planned visits to Iowa by the president in the final stretch of the midterms. The president’s campaign blitz in typically Republican strongholds reflects shifts in the political landscape in a midterm that initially favored the GOP.

“The problem right now is that people perceive that the economy is not better, and inflation has not only not come down, but it’s higher,” Ayres said.

A GOP strategist familiar with Republicans’ thinking in the midterms, granted anonymity to speak freely about internal strategies, told MS NOW the president’s visits to some of the reddest districts in states like Iowa in the final days of the campaign are part of a deliberate strategy to maximize turnout by loyal Trump voters in key races.

“Specifically, the 4th District, where we’re deploying him, is the heart of the base, the heart of Republican support,” the strategist said. “If we can churn out our base voters in that area, Democrats’ path to winning the state just shrinks dramatically.”

Seeking to address the financial hardships hitting major agricultural states like Iowa, the Trump administration has announced an $8 billion relief package for farmers and construction plans for a $15 billion steel plant in the state. The president himself has also touted new foreign trade deals to export American farm products and other efforts to boost farmers and ranchers.

But some farmers MS NOW spoke to say Trump’s trade deals have made little impact on their businesses as their operating costs have increased from rising diesel and fertilizer prices. And the president’s announcement that he would lower tariffs on ground beef from Argentina earlier this year came as a blow to the state’s cattle industry, with both Hinson and Turek calling the policy a bad idea.

Craig Moss, a fifth-generation cattle and hog farmer from Hull, about 50 miles north of Sioux City, told MS NOW the volatile cattle market had been “rough” in the past year, in part because of the president’s lifting of tariffs on Argentine ground beef.

“Trump makes a trade deal with Argentina, and then when he’s questioned about it by reporters, he says, ‘You don’t know anything about what’s going on over there,’” Moss said. “Well, sir, you don’t know anything about the cattle market.”

Moss said the current diesel price “kind of stinks,” adding that the ongoing Iran war was to blame. Still, Moss, who voted for Trump in the past, said he agreed with the president on most issues and did not regret voting for him before.

Julius Schaaf, a corn-and-soybean farmer of more than 40 years based in Fremont County, voted against Trump in past elections and said the current volatility in the farming industry was because of Trump’s trade policies. Schaaf criticized the administration as a “rude and difficult” trading partner.

“A lot of the people that supported him were farmers that have a lot of equity in their property, and they can weather a storm for a while,” Schaaf said. “But you talk to the young guys that are just getting started and trying to buy inputs and inputs have gone through the roof — they’re the ones that are really struggling.”

Vice President JD Vance addressed some of those concerns last month at a rally in the state, telling supporters that the Trump administration’s trade and tax policies have directly benefited farmers and blue-collar workers. He has also sought to show understanding of economic realities, acknowledging the high cost of gas and telling voters “we’re working on it.” Trump, for his part, has at times downplayed those concerns, calling the focus on affordability a “hoax” and insisting that prices would plummet once the Iran war ends.

Many Iowans across the political spectrum whom MS NOW spoke with agreed that their No. 1 concern was the cost of living. And while Trump’s performance got mixed reviews, they still had not decided how they would vote in the Senate and House races.

Tiffany, an Iowa voter who backed Trump in 2024, plans to vote in the midterm races but said she is currently undecided. Her top issue: the cost of living, she said, because “prices keep going up.”

“If you can’t afford to put gas in your car, how can you go to work to make money to put a roof over your head to put food on your table?” said Tiffany, who asked to go by her first name only. “You can only stretch your penny and your dollars so far until you can’t stretch it anymore.”

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Flávio Bolsonaro’s Campaign Uses AI to Engineer Fake Support

21 October 2026 at 23:17
Flávio Bolsonaro at a rally for his presidential campaign. Photo: JOTA.

Digital models modified Flávio Bolsonaro’s event photography to artificially expand audiences and simulate support from female voters.


The Brazilian presidential election has become an arena for modern, dirty digital tactics. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, representing the Liberal Party (PL), has centered his campaign strategy around coordinated digital reach and automated content production.

RELATED: UN Experts Raise Concerns Over Meta’s Handling of Political Expression During Brazil Elections

Rather than working as a traditional political campaign of physical rallies, the operation relies heavily on digital distribution infrastructure across social media platforms.

Flávio’s strategy operates through two main mechanisms. First, the campaign uses synthetic consensus tools, automated social media accounts, AI image generation, and digital avatars to simulate organic public backing.

Second, the campaign benefits from algorithmic distribution asymmetries on digital platforms, which amplify far-right material while placing system restrictions on competing political content.

Collected evidence by independent researchers, journalism networks, and electoral authorities indicates that systemic digital manipulation and platform-level infrastructure played a decisive role in shaping voter perception and electoral engagement in Brazil.

Industrial Bot Networks

A core component of Flávio Bolsonaro’s digital strategy involves the commercial purchase of automated networks designed to manufacture artificial public support.

An investigation by The Intercept Brazil revealed that Flávio Bolsonaro paid Elytron, a cybersecurity firm, to carry out data collection and voter identification to spread rumors and create fake accounts.

These automated tools operate primarily across WhatsApp, Instagram, and X, generating synchronized posts and artificial engagement to bypass standard organic distribution patterns.

This infrastructure uses astroturfing techniques to alter online public discourse. By deploying thousands of automated accounts programmed to post identical messaging scripts, the campaign artificially inflates engagement metrics, pushes specific political hashtags into regional trending lists, and floods comment sections on public news pages.

This creates a false impression of widespread popular momentum, designed to sway undecided voters through perceived consensus.

Technical evaluations submitted during electoral court proceedings reveal the scope of these automated operations. Data presented to electoral monitors shows coordinated account clusters posting at frequencies humanly impossible without software automation.

🚨 BREAKING: Flávio Bolsonaro paid R$600,000 to a company that offered AI to manipulate elections, according to Intercept Brasil. pic.twitter.com/eFcRp74vNw

— Pop Core (@TheePopCore) October 16, 2026

Deepfakes, AI Avatars, Demographic Manipulation

Various social organizations and media outlets have denounced the deployment of AI image and video generation tools as another facet of Flávio Bolsonaro’s digital strategy.

A prominent example occurred during campaign launch events, where the campaign broadcast an AI-generated digital avatar of former president Jair Bolsonaro endorsing his son’s candidacy. This technique allowed the campaign to maintain the political presence of the former president Bolsonaro in public events despite judicial rulings restricting his direct participation in political activities.

In addition, the campaign used AI tools to manipulate visual documentation of campaign gatherings. Documented instances show event photography processed through image generation models to alter crowd compositions.

These AI modifications included scaling up crowd sizes to exaggerate physical attendance and digitally swapping male attendees with female faces. The primary objective of this demographic engineering was to simulate broader support among female voters, a demographic group where polling data consistently showed lower support for the candidate.

An investigation by a Brazilian media outlet identified more than 50 TikTok videos altered using AI, specifically on-the-street interviews in which subjects claimed they would vote for Flávio Bolsonaro. These videos garnered over 7 million views, yet in only 18% of them did the platform indicate that the individuals featured were AI-generated.

While Brazilian law prohibits the use of AI-generated videos in political campaigns, it is difficult to determine when such content is created by third parties with no direct affiliation to the campaigns.

Due to a lack of female supporters, Brazilian presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro has resorted to using AI to transform middle-aged men into attractive young women.

This AI-generated creation has been dubbed the "Bolsonaro Bombshell." pic.twitter.com/ap1ecKou9K

— Vatnik Soup (@vatniksoup) October 20, 2026

Disinformation and Aggressive Public Discourse

Flávio Bolsonaro’s public communications strategy relies heavily on coordinated attack campaigns directed against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the Workers’ Party (PT).

The Flávio campaign’s public messaging routinely utilizes sensationalist allegations and targeted attacks. Online networks affiliated with the campaign circulate manufactured claims regarding public safety, economic stability, and social values, framing the current administration in terms of moral crisis.

On Sunday the 18th, the public debate between the two candidates took place, and Flávio Bolsonaro spent most of his time attacking Lula during his turns to speak.

Throughout the debate, Flávio was sarcastic and mocking toward President Lula; he attempted to intimidate him physically, to which Lula responded by moving away, stating that he did not want to be near either Flávio or the Bolsonaro family.

Furthermore, when the discussion turned to public safety, Flávio claimed that Lula is the preferred candidate of organized crime, pointing out that Lula received a large number of votes from within the country’s prisons. Lula replied, “I want 100% of them to vote for me -even your father,” a reference to the fact that Jair Bolsonaro is currently incarcerated.

This aggressive messaging strategy directly impacts the broader political environment. By flooding public discourse with inflammatory claims, the campaign creates heightened polarization, distracts from substantive legislative evaluations, and systematically delegitimizes established democratic processes and electoral monitoring bodies.

Hundreds of Brazilians protested outside Meta’s São Paulo offices, accusing the technology giant of limiting President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s campaign reach while boosting far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, just six days before the presidential runoff. The demonstration… pic.twitter.com/KRAxExFjMO

— teleSUR English (@telesurenglish) October 20, 2026

Meta’s Structural Bias in the Campaign

The Brazilian presidential race was shaped by asymmetries within Meta’s platforms, including Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook.

Filings submitted to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE, in Spanish) by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s legal team documented clear disparities in how content from both campaigns was handled by the different platforms.

A primary issue involved Meta’s generative AI features. When users requested campaign materials incorporating Lula’s official ballot number, 13, the system repeatedly rejected the prompts, citing political content restrictions. Conversely, identical requests containing Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidate number, 22, were routinely processed, generating promotional material for the far-right campaign.

In other instances, the AI tool inserted Bolsonaro’s electoral number into completely unrelated image requests. Following formal complaints, the Superior Electoral Court ordered Meta to ensure equal treatment. Meta attributed these outcomes to technical errors and implemented broad restrictions on political image generation.

Internal Meta communications revealed that technical errors caused Lula’s official Instagram profile to be excluded from platform search results and recommendation engines, while Flávio Bolsonaro’s profile remained fully discoverable and actively recommended to users. Furthermore, internal technical escalations confirmed that temporary account restrictions had hindered the reach of Lula’s messaging assets.

WHO'S THE REAL THIEF? LULA CHALLENGES BOLSONARO TO SHOW RECORDS

Ahead of Brazil’s presidential election, Brazilian President Lula da Silva publicly challenged rival Flávio Bolsonaro to open his bank accounts, release his phone records, and let the Brazilian people decide who… pic.twitter.com/U6Ge0yOV6A

— Sovereign Media (@sov_media) October 21, 2026

Regulatory Imperatives and Popular Sovereignty

The execution of Flávio Bolsonaro’s digital presidential campaign illustrates the evolving mechanics of far-right electoral operations.

By combining commercial bot procurement, generative AI deepfakes, coordinated public attacks, and platform-level algorithmic advantages, the campaign constructed a heavily synthetic media environment designed to influence voter perception.

These developments underscore the limitations of existing legal and regulatory frameworks in addressing digital campaign manipulation. While judicial interventions by the Superior Electoral Court forced technical corrections, reactive oversight remains insufficient to counteract real-time automated suppression and algorithmic imbalance.

Protecting democratic processes requires structural regulatory reform, including mandatory algorithmic transparency, strict auditing of generative AI systems, and clear accountability standards for global technology corporations operating within national borders.

Exposing the mechanics of digital manipulation through independent research and data-driven journalism remains essential to safeguarding electoral integrity against automated distortion and platform bias.

Sources: Brasil de Fato – Agência Brasil – Gov.br – O Globo – Folha de S.Paulo – O Estado de S.Paulo – El País – CNN Brasil – EFE – Instituto Tricontinental – La Base América Latina – Diario Red – The Intercept – El Salto

Train contract blow for Hungary’s richest man, plus Orbán will not mark 1956 anniversary (Day 156 of the Tisza government)

15 October 2026 at 16:43

The series continues as we report on developments following April’s historic election and on the steps taken since then by the Tisza government. This week, we cover the following topics:

  • Another blow for Hungary’s richest man;
  • New chief prosecutor nominee, plus a former chief prosecutor ready to testify on political pressure;
  • Parliament has adopted the new child-protection law;
  • A state secretary has unexpectedly left the government;
  • Orbán to keep quiet on one of Hungary’s most important national holidays;
  • Ukraine adopts the minority education law;
  • More EU funds and money from the Norway Grants have become available.

Another blow for Lőrinc Mészáros

Last Friday (9 October), prime minister Péter Magyar and Dávid Vitézy, minister for transport and investments, announced that the state was suspending implementation of one of Hungary’s largest rail projects – the Budapest southern circular railway, and will launch a new public procurement procedure.

The works had been carried out by V-Híd, the most profitable company of Lőrinc Mészáros, who became Hungary’s richest man during Viktor Orbán’s premiership.

However, the European Court of Auditors uncovered serious public-procurement irregularities: V-Híd may have colluded with the company that drafted the project plans and thus already possessed information at the time of the tender that its competitors did not have. Because of this, the European Court of Auditors would withdraw EU funding from the project.

The Hungarian government does not want to forfeit the EU money and make Hungarian taxpayers foot the bill for the costs of the project, which is why it is terminating the contract with Mészáros’s company and launching a new tender.

The Hungarian state had already taken away from Mészáros the right to operate a motorway section, and later also terminated the 35-year motorway concession.

Previously, one of his food-industry companies had EU funding already granted to it withdrawn, while his energy company was excluded from a call for proposals financed from the repatriated RRF funds.

New chief prosecutor nominee, plus former chief prosecutor ready to testify

On Monday (12 October), president András Baka nominated a former chief prosecutor, Péter Fejes, for the post of chief prosecutor. His first nominee, Zoltán Szathmáry, was not voted through by the Tisza group in parliament after it emerged that his brother was implicated in the so-called gold convoy case, in which a Ukrainian cash shipment was stopped and confiscated by the Hungarian authorities.

Fejes was dismissed in 2012 from his position as chief prosecutor of Vas county by Péter Polt, the chief prosecutor serving the Orbán system, citing loss of confidence. Since then he has continued to work within the prosecution service and as a university lecturer, and he has no party affiliation. For the time being neither prime minister Magyar nor the Tisza group has stated whether they support Fejes’s nomination.

Since the change of government, another former chief prosecutor, Pál Fürcht, has frequently spoken to the media. Among other things, he has claimed that the gold convoy case was created for political purposes, and that the authorities raided the Ukrainian cash couriers on Orbán’s orders.

On Sunday (11 October), Magyar sharply criticised Fürcht in a Facebook post, reproaching him for having been a servant of the system himself. According to Magyar, Fürcht constructed a criminal case, on political orders, out of the notorious nightclub altercation for which the prime minister is currently under investigation on charges of theft.

It was likewise Fürcht who left former propaganda minister Antal Rogán out of the corruption case known as the Völner–Schadl affair.

In response to Magyar’s criticism, Fürcht said he was ready to make an official statement before any authority. In parliament on Monday, the prime minister was already referring to the former chief prosecutor as a future witness.

Parliament has adopted the new child-protection law

Child protection was one of the most important topics of the campaign and played a major role in Orbán’s downfall. Magyar kept the issue on the agenda even after his government took office; most recently, last Thursday, the prime minister and the state secretary responsible for the field, Szilvia Gyurkó, presented the report on the children’s home in Bicske.

This home had been run by a director who was decorated by Orbán and later convicted of paedophile crimes, together with his deputy, who helped cover up the abuses. The presidential pardon granted to the deputy shook the Orbán government and helped lead to its collapse.

On Tuesday (13 October), parliament adopted an amendment to the child-protection law, which takes a tougher stance against media content accessible to minors that propagates sexual violence, manipulation and exploitation, and would speed up the placement of babies abandoned in hospital.

The amendment removed those homophobic passages that the Orbán government forced into law in 2021, and which the Court of Justice of the European Union also ruled to be contrary to EU law.

Fidesz, the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) and the far-right Mi Hazánk did not vote for the amendment; Magyar called this a disgrace.

A state secretary unexpectedly leaves the government

On Tuesday, András Tótth, state secretary for energy at the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy and minister István Kapitány’s most important aide, unexpectedly resigned.

This article continues, but the full version is available only to EUobserver.com subscribers. Visit account.euobserver.com/membership

Who Will the Next Party Leaders Be?

13 October 2026 at 13:00

Amid renewed speculation about an early General Election, now is the time to look at whom to put money on as the next party leaders, says Mark Littlewood in his latest Political Betting column for the Daily Sceptic.

The post Who Will the Next Party Leaders Be? appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.

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