The Israeli military launched large-scale domestic military exercises on Sunday to counter surprise border infiltrations and ground raids across northern and central Israel, mobilizing multiple divisions and air assets amid rising regional tensions.
The drills, set to continue over 48 hours, came as an Israeli security expert invoked the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Egypt and Syria used exercises to disguise preparations for a surprise attack, warning that escalating tensions in the region could in fact trigger what he described as a "dangerous miscalculation."
The large-scale maneuvers, the IDF said, involve the Northern Command’s 210th Division, the West Bank Division, and the Central Command’s 98th and 96th divisions, alongside the Israeli Air Force.
The exercise, scheduled just ahead of Israel's elections Oct. 27, aims to "maintain the forces’ alertness and readiness, strengthen the ability to defend communities, and make full use of aerial capabilities for defense in the area," according to the IDF.
On Friday, the IDF said troops would practice "a variety of scenarios, including a surprise attack and infiltration into Israeli territory by air and land," incorporating lessons learned from the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on Israel.
"This exercise is mostly about non-state actors with or without Iranian support," Israeli national security analyst Dr. Ehud Eilam told Fox News Digital.
"It's aimed at those in Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan who might try to infiltrate into Israel or send ground raids. Some are supported by Iran; others are not. It could be planned by Iran or be a local initiative."
"This is a massive exercise, the biggest one in recent years, aimed at protecting the borders," the former Israeli Ministry of Defense researcher added.
"It's all about making sure that the election day on October 27 will run smoothly. It's also a message to Iran and others: don't try to provoke us during election day, so nothing will be disrupted."
The Israeli drills followed a show of force by Tehran days earlier, during which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired roughly 30 ballistic missiles across two distinct weapon classes, according to reports.
That live-fire display highlighted Iranian strike capabilities and sparked renewed alerts about commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and prompted the Israeli military to heighten its alert level while maintaining maximum readiness for a targeted strike against Iran.
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During a visit to the IDF's Central Command on Wednesday, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir warned that the risk of escalation was growing.
"Given the numerous warnings across all fronts and the sensitivity of the current period, the potential for escalation has increased," Zamir said.
"To ensure better operational control on the ground, we have reinforced our troop deployments across all sectors, including moving the 98th Division into the area to strengthen security and stability."
"Part of mutual deterrence: a few days ago, Iran had their own pretty big exercise, and that was actually more intimidating as far as Israel is concerned because they launched missiles and prepared for a war with Israel," Eilam said.
"This exercise on Sunday and Monday is against Iran's proxies and allies at the border of Israel."
Sunday’s Israeli drill also followed an Oct. 19 mission in which Israeli fighter jets and aerial refueling tankers flew 800 miles across Syrian and Iraqi airspace to Iran’s border.
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Washington was notified in advance and viewed the maneuver as a non-kinetic show of force following the postponement of a broader strike package earlier in the month.
Despite the deterrence signals, Eilam warned that large-scale military exercises carry the "risk of miscalculation" and particularly when troop movements could be mistaken for preparations for an attack.
"During the Cold War, every time the Soviet Union or NATO carried out a major drill, having so many troops in the field meant they might attack if that was the intention," Eilam said.
He pointed to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Egypt and Syria used military exercises to help conceal troop buildups along Israel's borders.
Israeli intelligence largely dismissed the movements as routine drills, allowing the two countries to achieve strategic surprise when they launched a coordinated, two-front attack on Yom Kippur.
"The classic example in Israel is 1973, when Egypt and Syria conducted a major exercise just before the war that turned into the actual attack," the analyst said.
"Israel and Iran are now watching each other very closely and both sides suspect the other might strike first," Eilam added before stating that there is the chance of what they call "miscalculation — that each side suspects the other and strikes first by mistake."
"It's all about sending messages to each other."
"It remains uncertain whether there will eventually be an Israeli attack on Iran because it depends on U.S. authorization," Eilam concluded.
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"Right now, both sides are signaling: 'We are ready, don't mess with us, but we don't want to start a war right now.'"
JERUSALEM — Israel’s high-stakes election on Oct. 27 pits the longest serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, against the highly decorated retired Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot. While fairly new to politics, Eisenkot has an impressive resume that could help him become the Jewish state's next leader.
According to a number of polls, Eisenkot's centrist political party, Yashar, has a narrow lead over Netanyahu's Likud. To form a government, Yashar or Likud will need to cobble together a 61-seat majority of parties to be able to form a new coalition government.
He was born in Tiberias in Israel’s north to a Jewish-Moroccan family who relocated to Israel’s southernmost city, Eilat, on the Red Sea when he was a toddler.
A career soldier, he opted to serve in the infantry. He was part of the elite Golani Brigade and reached the zenith of the military with his 2015 appointment to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff in 2015 until 2019.
Yossi Melman, one of Israel’s most respected journalists on intelligence and defense reporting, told Fox News Digital that Eisenkot, "Is 100% a soldier. He is very brave and humble. He is an officer and gentleman."
Melman noted that when Eisenkot was chosen to be the next IDF chief of staff, he declined because he felt that then General Benny Gantz should receive the appointment. Melman asked, "How many people would do that? He was selected after Gantz. It shows his traits of modesty, honesty and not arrogant."
Melman said, "It is a miracle he is leading in the polls. He is the antithesis of a what a politician should be. He is not a great orator when you compare him to Netanyahu. He radiates honesty."
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Eisenkot’s Mizrahi background — Jews who originate from North Africa and the Middle East — would mean, if he prevails, that he would be the first Israeli Prime Minister of Moroccan origin. The Prime Minister’s office has been held by Israelis of Eastern European descent (Ashkenazi) since the rebirth of the Jewish state in 1948.
After Hamas invaded Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 and slaughtered over 1,200 people, including more than 40 Americans, Eisenkot joined Netanyahu’s war cabinet as a minister without portfolio.
Melman said Eisenkot "did not set any political conditions" and "his presence in the cabinet saved Netanyahu." After eight months of serving in the war cabinet, Eisenkot resigned, blaming the prime minister for failing to implement a comprehensive strategy.
The war against the Iran-backed terrorist movement Hamas took an enormous toll on the battle-hardened General Eisenkot and his family. Hamas killed his son, 25-year-old Master Sergeant Gal Eisenkot, in Dec. 2023. The terrorist organization also killed two nephews of Eisenkot. Netanyahu and his wife Sara said at the time that they were devastated by Gal’s death and Eisenkot was a "true hero."
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Danny Orbach, a military historian from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, gave his take on the leading contender to replace Netanyahu. "I think his military record and his prospects as a national leader have both significant strengths and serious weaknesses. He bears considerable responsibility for shaping the IDF that existed on Oct. 7, 2023. And that was, paradoxically, both the army that proved capable of defeating Hezbollah, striking Iran and achieving unprecedented military successes in the extraordinarily difficult, tunnel-ridden battlefield of Gaza and the army that failed so miserably on Oct. 7."
He continued that, "Like other chiefs of staff, Eisenkot bears responsibility for the decisions that reduced the army's size and for the infamous ‘conceptzia’ [Hebrew word for concept] regarding Hamas. In that respect, I consider him just as culpable as Netanyahu."
Israel’s military, intelligence and political establishments bought into the ‘conceptzia’ that Hamas could be housebroken with massive infusions of economic aid. Hamas, however, was wedded to its radical Islamist ideology —the destruction of the Jewish state — and used the funds to advance its war aims.
Orbach noted that "I don't think most of Eisenkot's support stems from his energy, enthusiasm or even his political platform. My impression is that Eisenkot has emerged as the default ‘non-Bibi’ candidate, the politician who currently channels much of the camp's hopes and expectations."
Orbach added that "I also doubt that Eisenkot would have had the political determination to stand up to the Biden administration on such matters."
Netanyahu and former President Biden repeatedly clashed over Biden’s attempts to rope in Israel’s efforts to defeat Iran’s seven-front war against the Jewish state.
The military historian, however, noted that "I believe an Eisenkot government could address several of Israel's most urgent problems. It would remove Ben Gvir from power, confront the growing problem of Jewish extremist violence and terrorism in the West Bank, and begin repairing Israel's severely damaged international legitimacy."
Itamar Ben-Gvir is a controversial right-wing firebrand politician and the current minister of national security since 2022, who has outraged many Western European and foreign leaders with his heated rhetoric against the Palestinians.
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Eisenkot’s wife, Hannah, comes from an American Jewish family. U.S. General Joseph Dunford awarded Eisenkot the Commander of the Legion of Merit because of his "exceptionally meritorious service as chief of the General Staff of the IDF" and his "contribution to the strategic cooperation between the United States and Israel [that] will have a lasting effect on both countries," according to the Washington Institute, where Eisenkot served as a military fellow in 2019.
Nadav Eyal, an Israeli analyst and journalist for the mass circulation Israeli paper Yedioth Aharonoth, told Fox News Digital, Gadi Eisenkot is widely considered one of the most successful Chiefs of Staff that Israel has had in the last thirty years."
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He continued that "Chiefs of Staff in Israel, unlike in other countries, are really extremely capable, in general, to be prime minister. They are leading the country’s biggest organization, the IDF."
Eyal, who writes extensively about the IDF, credited Eisenkot’s military planning against the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon and the significant defeats the Lebanese Shiite entity experienced, including the "discovery of tunnels that Hezbollah built" to enter Israel. Hezbollah immediately joined Hamas’s war against Israel in Oct. 2023.
Given the nature of Israel’s electoral system, an outright winner won’t likely be known for several days, since the leading party will need to form a coalition to get to the 61-seat mandate to run the country.
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