© Marcin Bielecki/EPA-EFE, via Shutterstock
© Hilary Swift for The New York Times
Russia and Ukraine have maintained a localised ceasefire around Oleshky in the southern Kherson region, creating an opportunity to deliver humanitarian assistance to civilians who have spent months effectively isolated from regular supplies of food, medicine and drinking water.
Ukrainian Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets said on 29 October that neither side had reported violations of the agreement and that teams were continuing to clear mines from roads intended for humanitarian convoys.
According to Associated Press, the six-day arrangement began on 27 October and is expected to remain in force until 1 November.
The first substantial humanitarian delivery is scheduled for Friday, 30 October.
An estimated 1,700 to 2,000 civilians remain in Oleshky, many of them elderly residents whose health, mobility or personal circumstances have prevented them from leaving.
The town is situated on the Russian-occupied eastern bank of the Dnipro River, opposite Ukrainian-controlled Kherson.
Its geographical position has made it particularly vulnerable to the consequences of the fighting, while damaged infrastructure, mines and military restrictions have complicated access for humanitarian organisations.
The agreement has attracted attention because of the involvement of US First Lady Melania Trump.
In a White House statement issued on 23 October, her office announced that she had worked with Russian and Ukrainian representatives to secure arrangements for a temporary cessation of military activity.
The statement described her as the intermediary in the negotiations, covering the timing of the ceasefire, humanitarian access, evacuation procedures and operational coordination.
Lubinets subsequently acknowledged her involvement and said communication with his Russian counterpart, Yana Lantratova, had helped maintain the arrangement.
The White House originally announced 29 October as the starting date, but Ukrainian officials later reported that the ceasefire had taken effect at 3am on 27 October.
By Thursday, both sides were describing the agreement as holding without recorded violations.
The participation of the American First Lady is an unusual feature of international humanitarian diplomacy, which is more commonly conducted through governments, international organisations or specialist humanitarian agencies.
However, the immediate significance of the agreement will be determined by whether assistance reaches residents and whether those wishing to leave can do so safely.
Oleshky has experienced prolonged humanitarian difficulties under Russian occupation.
The town suffered extensive disruption following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in June 2023, which caused severe flooding across communities along the Dnipro.
Subsequent fighting, damage to infrastructure and restrictions on movement further complicated access to essential goods.
According to Ukrainian officials, normal deliveries of food to the town have been effectively interrupted since late May 2026.
Residents have faced shortages of medicines and clean water, while the presence of mines has made movement beyond residential areas hazardous.
The remaining population is believed to consist largely of older people and residents requiring medical attention.
For these civilians, humanitarian access is not simply a matter of replenishing household supplies.
It may determine whether individuals can receive essential treatment, obtain prescription medicines or leave areas where normal medical and social services have ceased functioning.
The ceasefire provides for humanitarian teams to assess residents’ needs and arrange transport for those who wish to leave.
The White House has indicated that residents should be able to choose their destination, including Ukrainian-controlled territory or Russia.
Ensuring that such decisions are genuinely voluntary is particularly important in occupied territory.
International humanitarian law provides protections for civilians under occupation, including restrictions concerning forcible transfers and deportations.
A credible evacuation process therefore requires clear information, freedom from coercion and practical arrangements allowing residents to travel safely.
The presence of journalists accompanying the mission may provide additional documentation, although media access does not replace independent humanitarian monitoring.
Russian and Ukrainian representatives have also been coordinating mine clearance along routes intended for humanitarian vehicles.
Until those routes are confirmed safe, the delivery of assistance and movement of civilians remain dependent on operational conditions.
The agreement remains geographically limited.
Russian strikes continued elsewhere in Ukraine on 29 October, killing civilians in several cities, including Dnipro.
The continuing attacks demonstrate that the localised humanitarian arrangement does not represent a broader change in Russian military operations or the strategic direction of the war.
Nevertheless, the pause has also brought some relief to residents of nearby Ukrainian-controlled Kherson, where repeated attacks have disrupted daily life.
The absence of reported violations around Oleshky suggests that the two sides retain the ability to coordinate narrowly defined humanitarian measures when political and operational arrangements are in place.
That does not necessarily imply an increased willingness to compromise over territory or broader security questions.
The agreement is scheduled to expire on 1 November, leaving only a limited period for delivering aid and facilitating departures.
Its effectiveness will depend on the quantities of assistance delivered, the number of residents reached and whether evacuation arrangements operate as intended.
It will also be necessary to establish what protection, if any, is available to civilians who remain after the ceasefire ends.
A successful operation could provide a model for similarly limited humanitarian arrangements elsewhere along the front.
However, extending such cooperation would require further political consent and practical security guarantees.
For Oleshky’s remaining residents, the immediate question is more urgent: whether several days without fighting can provide the assistance and safe passage that months of war have denied them.
O cálculo considera mudanças no Bolsa Família, a perda de arrecadação relacionada à bets e um pacote de medidas voltado aos microempreendedores individuais (MEI).
O relatório também alerta para a necessidade de um ajuste fiscal para estabilizar a dívida pública e aponta perspectivas de déficit primário este ano e em 2027.
Os R$ 40 bilhões estimados pela IFI estão associados a três frentes de medidas anunciadas durante a campanha:
O impacto fiscal poderá ser maior caso outras propostas sejam implementadas.
A instituição ressalta que o cálculo não contempla o Pé-de-Meia Universitário nem a isenção de tarifas de transporte coletivo aos fins de semana.
A IFI projeta déficit primário de 0,5% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB, soma dos bens e serviços produzidos no país) este ano. Para 2027, a avaliação apresentada na abertura do relatório indica que os novos compromissos, somados às divergências entre as estimativas da instituição e os números do Projeto de Lei Orçamentária Anual (PLOA), podem elevar o déficit primário efetivo potencial a 1% do PIB.
O déficit primário ocorre quando as despesas do governo superam as receitas, desconsiderando o pagamento dos juros da dívida pública.
A instituição calcula que seria necessário alcançar um superávit primário de 2,1% do PIB para estabilizar a relação entre a dívida pública e o tamanho da economia.
“Considerando que a IFI estima ser necessário um superávit primário de 2,1% do PIB para estabilizar a relação dívida pública/PIB, esse quadro indica a necessidade de um ajuste fiscal equivalente a algo como 3 p.p. [pontos percentuais] do PIB”, afirmaram os diretores Marcus Pestana e Alexandre Andrade na apresentação do relatório.
O relatório também destaca que a elevação das estimativas para a taxa de juros real neutra (aquela que, em tese, não estimula nem desacelera a atividade econômica) aumenta o esforço necessário para estabilizar o endividamento público.
A mediana das estimativas de juro neutro chegou a 6,1% ao ano no terceiro trimestre deste ano, acima dos 5% utilizados anteriormente como referência pela IFI.
Nesse cenário, o superávit primário necessário para estabilizar a dívida subiria de 2,1% para 2,9% do PIB, mantidas as demais hipóteses do exercício apresentado no relatório.
A instituição também calcula que a probabilidade de a dívida bruta superar 90% do PIB até 2030 aumenta de 78,9% para 81,6% quando considerada a incerteza sobre o juro neutro.
Outro ponto abordado no relatório são as operações de crédito realizadas pela União com recursos do Orçamento, classificadas como despesas financeiras e que não entram diretamente no cálculo da meta de resultado primário.
Segundo a IFI, os pagamentos relacionados a créditos concedidos com recursos orçamentários passaram de R$ 71,7 bilhões em 2023 para R$ 220,3 bilhões acumulados até outubro deste ano.
Descontados os retornos ao Tesouro Nacional, as saídas líquidas chegaram a R$ 147,7 bilhões em 2025 e a R$ 180,5 bilhões nos dez primeiros meses deste ano.
Embora essas operações não comprometam formalmente o cumprimento das metas fiscais, a instituição avalia que elas têm impacto efetivo sobre a trajetória da dívida pública.
A IFI também identificou pontos de atenção nas projeções orçamentárias para o Regime Geral de Previdência Social (RGPS) e o Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC).
No caso da Previdência, o relatório aponta que o Projeto de Lei Orçamentária de 2027 não contabiliza o impacto de uma decisão do Supremo Tribunal Federal sobre aposentadoria especial, estimado em R$ 13 bilhões.
Em relação ao BPC, a instituição observa divergências entre as projeções do governo e os dados disponíveis até agosto deste ano. Enquanto a estimativa governamental pressupõe redução do número de beneficiários no segundo semestre do ano e aumento das cessações em 2027, os registros indicavam expansão no total de benefícios emitidos.
Sobre a condução da política econômica após a reeleição de Lula, a instituição não prevê mudanças bruscas. A expectativa é de continuidade da estratégia gradualista de ajuste fiscal, com correções pontuais.
Os diretores da IFI, no entanto, defendem medidas consistentes para enfrentar o desequilíbrio das contas públicas e criar condições para a retomada dos investimentos.
“Sem um ajuste fiscal consistente não haverá retomada relevante dos investimentos estratégicos, crescimento acelerado, criação de empregos de qualidade, incremento da renda e dinheiro para financiar políticas públicas essenciais”, avalia Marcus Pestana.
O relatório também recomenda a apresentação de um plano fiscal para os próximos quatro anos e a definição do comando do Ministério da Fazenda, em meio às incertezas dos mercados financeiros.
Para a instituição, o desafio é conciliar o controle do endividamento, o financiamento de políticas públicas e a abertura de espaço no Orçamento para investimentos capazes de estimular o crescimento econômico.
Na semana passada, o Ministério do Planejamento e Orçamento informou que pretende remanejar R$ 20 bilhões do Orçamento de 2027 para fazer frente aos novos gastos. A pasta não divulgou o impacto total das medidas anunciadas durante a campanha eleitoral. Apenas informou que o restante da diferença seria coberto pela revisão para baixo de estimativas de gastos obrigatórios no projeto de lei do Orçamento do próximo ano.
A mensagem de alteração do Projeto de Lei Orçamentária Anual (PLOA) de 2027 será encaminhada ao Congresso Nacional assim que for designado o relator do projeto.
Para este ano, a pasta informou que os impactos serão residuais porque a maior parte das medidas anunciadas só começam efetivamente a valer no próximo ano.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour recently told Reason's Nick Gillespie there's a "big group" of lawmakers in both parties who are "actually" in favor of prediction market platforms. Utah Attorney General Derek Brown is not one of them.
On Wednesday, Brown filed criminal charges in state court against Kalshi, Mansour, and fellow co-founder and chief operating officer Luana Lopes Lara. Mansour, Lopes Lara, and Kalshi are charged with one count of general gambling promotion, a class A misdemeanor; one count of pattern of unlawful activity, a second-degree felony; and 12 counts of online gambling promotion, a third-degree felony.
The feud between Kalshi and Utah has been brewing for quite some time. In August, U.S. District Court Judge Robert J. Shelby found that federal law did not preempt Utah from enforcing its anti-gambling laws against Kalshi, meaning the platform could not legally operate in the Beehive State. Last week, Utah filed a civil suit against the prediction platform alleging it had continued to engage in a "brazen pattern of unlawful conduct." The criminal case comes a day after the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed its lawsuit to block Utah from enforcing its anti-gambling laws against Kalshi.
Even though it's been illegal to use Kalshi in Utah since August, Special Agent Scott Eggerman of the Attorney General's Office was able to "create an undercover Kalshi account, using an undercover name and an undercover Visa Debit Card," according to Wednesday's complaint.
All of Eggerman's personal user information identified him as a Utah resident with a local phone number and bank account through a "Utah-based banking establishment." Over two weeks, Eggerman spent $114.87 on a dozen wagers spread across the NFL, MLB, a local college football game, and a Major League Soccer match involving Utah-based Real Salt Lake. In one instance, he lost $20 on a wager that the Troy Trojans football team would upset the Utah State Aggies.
Utah argues Eggerman should never have been able to set up an account, let alone place any wagers on the platform. When Kalshi challenged Shelby's ruling, it asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit for an injunction while the appeal proceeded. However, in September, the 10th Circuit denied Kalshi's request for an injunction pending appeal, meaning Shelby's order remained in effect while the court considered the case.
"A federal court has already ruled that Utah's gambling laws apply to Kalshi," Brown told Deseret News. "Kalshi kept taking bets from Utahns anyway. That is illegal, and we're putting a stop to it."
Utah joins Arizona as the only two states to pursue criminal charges against Kalshi. However, the prediction platform has more than 20 lawsuits and cease and desist actions pending across the country, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. The issue might soon come before the Supreme Court. Earlier this month, the NFL, 39 states, and Washington, D.C., filed amicus briefs, arguing that conflicting decisions in the 6th and 9th Circuit Courts of Appeals left them unsure whether the states or the CFTC has regulatory authority over prediction markets.
Kalshi is a supporter of Reason Foundation, the nonprofit that publishes Reason. In a statement to the Deseret News, a Kalshi spokesperson called the criminal charges a "crazy overreach" and said Brown was "playing politics." With Shelby's ruling still in effect, so long as Utah considers Kalshi a gambling platform, its continued operation violates state law. Still, the criminal charges are an attempt to strong-arm Kalshi into acquiescing to his demands instead of letting the pending court case play out.
Utah acknowledges that there's been a "rapid increase in volume on the Kalshi platform" from users in the Beehive State. Yet its attorney general seems intent on restricting adults in the state from spending their money as they see fit.
The post Utah Files Criminal Charges Against Kalshi Co-Founders appeared first on Reason Magazine.
Ukraine’s humanitarian mission to Russian-occupied Oleshky in Kherson Oblast has reached a key stage, with mine clearance along designated routes completed and a humanitarian convoy ready to depart, Ukraine’s Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets said on 29 October.
The mission aims to deliver humanitarian aid to civilians trapped in the occupied city facing humanitarian crisis, and provide a safe way out for those who want to leave. The operation is taking place under a localized ceasefire coordinated with the help of US First Lady Melania Trump.
Lubinets said the ceasefire has held for 54 hours without reported violations.
Lubinets said the humanitarian convoy was ready to leave and was expected to reach Oleshky’s central hospital. Residents would receive the assistance they need, he said.
Civilians wishing to leave the city would have an opportunity to do so until 2 p.m. local time, with security measures organized for their departure. Distribution of humanitarian aid was scheduled to begin after 2:30 p.m.
Delegations from Ukraine, Russia, and the United States had gathered to coordinate the next steps in the mission. Journalists from all three countries were also present, Lubinets said.
Earlier on 29 October, Lubinets said he was still traveling toward Oleshky.
He said he wanted to be on the ground to see the situation firsthand and report on the mission’s progress. Lubinets also asked the public to rely on official sources and wait until he returned before raising further questions about the negotiations.
The Ukrainian ombudsman said the negotiations had been difficult and lengthy, adding that the mission had reached only the halfway point toward its goals.
“If I had to go for the sake of one person, I would go again,” Lubinets said, describing the mission as his duty to help Ukrainians in need.
The mission is being conducted jointly by Lubinets and Russian human rights commissioner Yana Lantratova, with mediation and coordination by Melania Trump.
The localized ceasefire took effect on 27 October to allow mine clearance, humanitarian deliveries, and civilian evacuations.
Oleshky, on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, has been under Russian occupation since 2022. Russian occupation and restrictions on access to the city have left civilians facing severe shortages of food, medicine, and other essential supplies, while access to medical care has become increasingly difficult. The humanitarian mission aims to deliver urgently needed aid and help residents who want to leave reach safety.
Lubinets thanked Melania Trump and the Ukrainians and US citizens who helped bring attention to the situation in Oleshky and support the negotiations. He said the mission’s priority remained delivering assistance and helping civilians leave safely.
Moscow's consent to a temporary ceasefire in Russian-occupied Oleshky seems like a long-overdue and welcome concession from a country that has repeatedly rejected or violated ceasefire proposals during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
So why is the Kremlin so on board with Oleshky? Experts, as well as information
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