Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia was fired as part of a broad and highly unusual campaign to find and punish senior military officers who speak to reporters.

© Marcin Bielecki/EPA-EFE, via Shutterstock

A federal judge gave the government until noon on Friday to share which states had received letters trying to enlist them in an effort to find evidence of voter fraud.

© Madison Swart for The New York Times

Last Wednesday, October 28, the United Nations General Assembly voted (for the thirty-fourth time) in favor of ending the economic and commercial embargo – which many refer to as a blockade – that the United States has unilaterally imposed on Cuba for more than sixty years.

With 130 votes in favor, 17 against, and 25 abstentions, the international community once again demanded that the United States end an embargo that has caused unimaginable hardship for the Cuban people and has slowed the Caribbean nation’s development.

One of the countries that voted against the embargo was South Africa, whose ambassador emphasized his concern about the negative consequences the Cuban people are suffering as a result of Washington’s decisions. He also called for Cuba to be removed from the list of countries that allegedly sponsor terrorism, a designation that prevents many companies from doing business on the island.

In recent years, the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs has denounced that high-level US diplomats had pressured several of its partners to vote against such resolutions concerning the embargo on Cuba, under threat of serious consequences. The denunciation was repeated this year by Cuba’s top diplomat.

Despite these efforts, the overwhelming majority of countries once again called on the United States to end the embargo. Washington appeared to have successfully influenced only its closest allies (those fully aligned with its geopolitical ideology) to vote against it. Thus, among the countries that voted against the resolution are several signatories to “Shield of the Americas,” the new international military initiative led by Washington, to which several right-wing and far-right governments in Latin America have aligned themselves.

For its part, the UN news portal reported: “The Assembly expresses its concern that, after decades of votes and appeals, the measure remains in force and continues to negatively affect the Cuban population and Cuban nationals residing abroad, without the expectations of economic normalization having been met.”

A multimillion-dollar blockade

According to Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez, Cuba’s annual losses are estimated at about 8 billion dollars. The total economic losses since the embargo began amount to the astronomical figure of 178 billion dollars, which is a huge sum considering the relatively small size of a country with a population of 10 million.

In this regard, the US economic and trade embargo – the longest-lasting in recent modern history – has been denounced by Cuban authorities as a perverse mechanism employed by Washington to boycott, almost from its inception, the Cuban Revolution, which proclaimed itself anti-imperialist and socialist.

Added to this prolonged damage are the recent energy restrictions that Washington has imposed on Cuba. Since early 2026, when Washington targeted Venezuela (Cuba’s main energy partner), the possibility of sending oil to Cuba has been cut off by a unilateral US order; the United States warned it would increase tariffs on any country that sends crude oil to Cuba. Only one Russian tanker managed to navigate the waters and reach Cuba – a resource appreciated by Cubans but one that ran out quite quickly.

The Caribbean nation depends almost entirely on petroleum for generating electricity, production, trade, and providing hospital care to its population. Added to this are the difficulties in distributing water and meeting other basic needs of the Cuban people, who are the true victims of a new strategy aimed at overthrowing the revolutionary government.

In this regard, the support of the international community – the vast majority of which has called for an end to the embargo, considering it a measure that undermines the sovereignty and self-determination of the Cuban people – provides a platform to remind the world of the situation Cuba is facing.

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel said on X: “Today at the UN, the international community’s overwhelming support for Cuba was evident in its condemnation of the blockade and the US government’s policy of maximum pressure. Most of the speakers, some representing regional blocs, were clear in their condemnation.”

He added: “It is a despicable act on the part of the empire’s representatives to claim they are defending collective punishment – which exacts a high human cost – against the Cuban people, in violation of human rights. It is a futile effort. They are not convincing, and they achieve nothing except through gangster-like coercion.”

Exchange of accusations between Havana and Washington

But the vote was not without controversy. During his address, the US representative to the UN, Mike Waltz, said that concentration camps existed in Cuba where “thousands of homosexuals, Christians, and Afro-Cubans” were allegedly detained.

In response to the statement, the Cuban delegation, visibly upset, began banging on the table and requested a “point of order.” When the Assembly president did not respond, Foreign Minister Rodríguez and the rest of the Cuban delegation approached the presiding officers and Waltz and demanded that he stop lying.

Following the protests, the Assembly president gave the floor to Rodríguez, who said that Waltz was “blatantly lying” and that his “attitude is disgraceful.” He further stated: “Mr. Waltz is lying again, and I wish him a better future in other roles, but at the United Nations and on the Security Council, his performance leaves much to be desired … He is undermining the dignity of the Cuban people and the Cuban government.”

The department has issued grand jury subpoenas to local election officials as part of a widening effort to prove unsubstantiated claims about large numbers of illegal voters in the state.

© Philip Cheung for The New York Times

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Beijing has vowed to defend its firms after Washington blocked imports from China’s leading genomics group, extending the two countries’ trade war into biotechnology weeks before their leaders are due to meet in Shenzhen. The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on Wednesday added three Shenzhen-based companies to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) […]

The post Pre-APEC US ban on Chinese genomic giant widens biotech decoupling appeared first on Asia Times.

Netanyahu sta dicendo a Trump che ora deve portare a termine l’opera di distruzione dell’Iran

Segue nostro Telegram.

Il «Grande Progetto» volto a «mantenere [la civiltà occidentale] al vertice del mondo» (come ha affermato il Segretario di Stato statunitense Marco Rubio) richiede che gli strumenti per garantire l’obbedienza siano di due tipi: La creazione di un fervore rivoluzionario distruttivo dal basso (oggi definito «cambio di regime»); e, in secondo luogo, l’uso di ciò che Theodore Herzl, in una famosa frase, definì «il terribile potere del denaro di esercitare una pressione irresistibile sulla politica internazionale», al fine di cooptare gli strati dominanti in una rete di potere che promuovesse il «progetto» del Grande Disegno.Questo è ciò che stiamo osservando nella guerra di Trump contro l’Iran.

L’attacco israelo-americano del giugno 2025 era principalmente un attacco di decapitazione volto a neutralizzare sia la leadership politica che quella militare dell’Iran, mentre elementi armati addestrati dal Mossad, il MEK e i separatisti baluchi tra gli altri sarebbero stati infiltrati in Iran per fomentare la rivoluzione dalla base. A quel tempo, il figlio dell’ex Scià – in modo poco plausibile – veniva presentato ai media occidentali come il futuro leader dell’Iran.

Non ha funzionato. E ora Netanyahu sta sostenendo che Israele disponga di «nuove prove» del fatto che l’Iran si stia orientando verso la produzione di un componente bellico nell’ambito del proprio programma nucleare. Sta dicendo a Trump che ora deve portare a termine l’opera di distruzione dell’Iran. E per motivare ulteriormente Trump, il principale quotidiano israeliano Ma’ariv riporta che Israele ha trasmesso direttamente alla Casa Bianca i sondaggi del Likud, secondo cui Netanyahu potrebbe vincere le elezioni israeliane del 27 ottobre. Secondo l’articolo, queste informazioni del Likud (che contraddicono la maggior parte degli altri sondaggi israeliani) hanno spinto Trump a esprimere il proprio pieno sostegno elettorale a Netanyahu.

Allo stesso tempo, i miliardari filosionisti stanno esercitando il «terribile potere del denaro» su Trump: «Non accetteremo nulla di meno della sconfitta dell’Iran. Se continuerà a cercare un accordo, le ritireremo il nostro sostegno finanziario».

Alti funzionari della sicurezza israeliani, sia in carica che in pensione, confutano tuttavia la necessità di un attacco imminente all’Iran e l’affermazione di Netanyahu relativa a nuove prove che l’Iran si stia muovendo verso l’arma nucleare –il Capo di Stato Maggiore delle Forze di Difesa Israeliane (IDF) Zamir ha dichiarato al Canale 13 israeliano: «Non vediamo la necessità di attaccare l’Iran prima delle elezioni»; Il principale stratega militare israeliano Udi Evental ha messo in guardia: «Una guerra per ostacolare le elezioni e la democrazia, non per ostacolare il programma nucleare dell’Iran. Netanyahu, che si sospetta sia immerso fino al collo in considerazioni politiche e personali estranee alla questione, non è idoneo a prendere una decisione del genere. Non glielo si deve permettere».

Che esistano o meno prove del genere non ha davvero importanza. Probabilmente non esistono. L’affermazione costituisce semplicemente il pretesto con cui si sta esortando gli Stati Uniti ad agire per ‘portare a termine l’opera’ contro l’Iran. Come sempre, Netanyahu ha dichiarato negli ultimi giorni: «L’Iran sta ancora una volta cercando di sviluppare le sue armi di morte… C’è un solo modo per eliminare questa minaccia una volta per tutte: rovesciare il regime in Iran, e questa è la mia direttiva all’IDF, al Mossad e alle agenzie di sicurezza».Un alto funzionario iraniano ha dichiarato a Drop Site che l’attuale valutazione dei servizi segreti interni di Teheran indica un’elevata probabilità che possano iniziare bombardamenti su larga scala – anche prima delle elezioni israeliane di martedì.

Il punto è che all’Iran non interessa chi vincerà le elezioni di medio termine, né chi conquisterà la presidenza degli Stati Uniti nel 2028. Per la leadership iraniana è tutto uguale. Comprendono bene il concetto del «Grande Disegno» (come potrebbero non farlo?).In Iran è ben chiaro che il Paese è impegnato in una lunga guerra contro l’intero blocco atlantista: Israele, i suoi servizi di intelligence, i suoi arsenali, i suoi satelliti, la sua industria militare e la sua macchina mediatica. Non importa se alla Casa Bianca ci sia un repubblicano o un democratico. Gli alti funzionari iraniani ritengono che entrambi i partiti siano stati comprati dal terribile potere sionista del denaro.

Comprendere il «Progetto» significa comprendere che la classe dei finanziatori sionisti non si accontenterà mai di un «accordo o compromesso». Essi sostengono con certezza che l’Iran alla fine verrebbe meno a qualsiasi acconsentimento ipotizzato alle richieste statunitensi. Gli israeliani e i loro alleati della classe dei finanziatori semplicemente non credono (e lo ripetono incessantemente) che l’Iran accetterebbe mai di sottomettersi a Israele, né di accettare il dominio politico e culturale degli Stati Uniti. Potrebbero avere ragione. Perché? Semplicemente perché l’Iran possiede una civiltà profonda, che affonda le sue radici in un complesso di credenze e pratiche specificamente persiano-iraniane risalenti al secondo millennio a.C.: il mazdeismo, una cosmologia del dramma divino, rappresentata dalla lotta continua tra Luce e Oscurità.

Il rinomato studioso, il professor Henri Corbin, ha sostenuto che «l’Iran era situato in una posizione centrale… non essendo solo una nazione o un impero, ma un universo spirituale». Egli concepiva quindi l’Iran come una forza mediatrice, sia geograficamente che metafisicamente.

Per millenni, gli iraniani hanno percepito il mondo come dotato di una chiara dimensione metafisica – e di una storia. È quindi improbabile che possano essere attratti da un atteggiamento materialistico e nichilista di stampo occidentale. Gli Stati civilizzatori, siano essi l’Iran o la Russia, che abbracciano valori contrari non soccomberebbero mai al «Grande Disegno». Di conseguenza, devono essere distrutti.

Cosa significa questa storia metafisica? Significa che l’Iran si sta preparando alla guerra, non a un «accordo». Mohsen Rezaei, segretario del Consiglio Supremo di Sicurezza Nazionale iraniano e rappresentante personale della Guida Suprema, l’Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, ha affermato che, «Se la domanda è se l’Iran abbia ancora la capacità di proseguire le operazioni con missili e droni [in caso di attacco], la risposta è “sì” … Gli Stati Uniti dispongono di risorse preziose nella regione. In caso di guerra, anche cavi, centri dati e strutture di intelligenza artificiale potrebbero rientrare nel raggio d’azione. Se il conflitto dovesse riprendere, avremo un piano più ampio». «Tutti devono comprendere che un’azione contro l’Iran comporta un costo».

Alti funzionari iraniani ritengono che la guerra sia imminente. L’Iran dispone di piani di ampia portata (in caso di attacco) che coinvolgono anche l’Arabia Saudita e la sua leadership, ha lasciato intendere un alto funzionario iraniano. Karl Miller (dal campo) afferma che, a questo proposito, un quarto della produzione petrolifera saudita è già stato distrutto e che i danni causati dagli attacchi di rappresaglia di AnsarAllah interessano l’intera catena produttiva saudita – «dalla testa di pozzo alla stazione di servizio» – e che l’Arabia Saudita sta colmando il deficit attingendo alle proprie riserve.

Il rapporto di Miller, citato da Larry Johnson, avverte che,«se i canali di esportazione dell’Arabia Saudita dovessero chiudersi, il suo petrolio non avrebbe altra destinazione se non le proprie raffinerie, le proprie centrali elettriche e i propri serbatoi di stoccaggio. Una volta che lo stoccaggio fosse pieno, si raggiungerebbe all’incirca il limite massimo di produzione che l’Arabia Saudita potrebbe mantenere. Se Ras Tanura e Yanbu venissero chiusi contemporaneamente, il Regno sarebbe costretto a chiudere la maggior parte dei propri giacimenti petroliferi. Questo è esattamente lo scenario che la campagna di Ansar Allah contro l’oleodotto, il Mar Rosso e i terminali del Golfo è volta a provocare». «Qualsiasi nuova campagna americana o israeliana contro l’Iran si abbatterà su un sistema energetico saudita che non dispone più di margini per assorbirla», osserva Larry Johnson.

Qualsiasi nuovo attacco all’Iran, per estensione, significherà la fine del Golfo così come lo conosciamo, la fine del petrodollaro e la fine del Golfo come principale fornitore di liquidità per Wall Street e il mondo della tecnologia.

Ciononostante, secondo quanto riferito, Trump avrebbe affermato che gli Stati Uniti non stanno attualmente negoziando con l’Iran e che qualcosa accadrà «molto presto».

Forse. (Ma con Trump tutto si riduce a speculazioni). Se però sta bluffando, non funzionerà, e la sua umiliazione sarà ancora più profonda.

Un uomo che conosce Trump meglio di molti altri (avendo scritto quattro libri su di lui), Michael Wolff, sostiene che se i Democratici vinceranno nelle elezioni di medio termine del 3 novembre –

«Cercheranno di far capire al mondo che è “un nuovo giorno”. Trump, dal canto suo, cercherà di far capire al mondo che è ancora lui a controllare la scena. Ci sarà una serie di eventi di questo tipo (come una presunta invasione di Cuba, ad esempio) di portata superiore a qualsiasi cosa possiamo immaginare. Non si mostrerà umile. Il concetto di umiltà non esiste nell’animo di Donald Trump. Pertanto, farà esattamente il contrario».

«Non ritirarsi, ma attaccare».

A líder da oposição venezuelana, María Corina Machado, afirmou nesta quinta-feira (29) que os Estados Unidos sugeriram que o país realize eleições presidenciais no próximo ano — um cronograma que ela já havia defendido anteriormente.

Essa foi a primeira declaração de peso de Machado desde que retornou ao país, no último fim de semana.

O retorno de Machado à Venezuela traz o risco de tensionar suas relações com a administração do presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, cuja gestão esteve envolvida na operação que resultou na captura do ditador Nicolás Maduro, em janeiro. Maduro enfrenta acusações nos EUA por tráfico de drogas e tortura — alegações que ele nega.

Leia Mais:

Washington declarou que Machado — que já foi indicada ao Prêmio Nobel da Paz — tem todo o direito de estar na Venezuela; contudo, Trump também elogiou a presidente interina, Delcy Rodríguez.

A administração Trump apoia negociações entre o governo de Rodríguez e grupos de oposição — das quais o movimento “Vente Venezuela”, de Machado, não participa — visando a uma reestruturação do Conselho Nacional Eleitoral e da Suprema Corte da Venezuela antes do próximo pleito.

Machado agradeceu a Trump e ao secretário de Estado dos EUA, Marco Rubio, pelo papel que desempenharam na destituição de Maduro, ressaltando que a relação entre os dois países baseia-se no respeito mútuo e atende aos interesses de ambas as nações.

“O secretário de Estado Marco Rubio estabeleceu uma sequência de etapas para avançar rumo a uma transição democrática, deixando claro que eleições presidenciais serão realizadas em 2027″, afirmou Machado, acrescentando que trabalhará para garantir que todos os venezuelanos aptos a votar possam exercer seu direito em qualquer eleição futura.

O Departamento de Estado dos EUA não respondeu prontamente a um pedido de comentário.

Anteriormente, Rubio havia manifestado a expectativa de que Machado apoiasse as negociações.

Em uma coletiva de imprensa em Caracas, Machado evitou responder a perguntas sobre declarações feitas por Trump — em janeiro, quando ele disse que ela não teria apoio suficiente para liderar a Venezuela de imediato; e nesta semana, quando sugeriu que a Venezuela poderia se tornar o 51º estado americano.

Há anos, Machado cultiva uma relação com Trump, tratando-o como um aliado.

A líder opositora acrescentou que viu com bons olhos o fato de Rodríguez — em declarações feitas mais cedo naquele dia — também ter defendido a realização de eleições.

Ela ressaltou que aqueles que auxiliarem o país em sua transição de volta à democracia precisarão de garantias. Machado defendeu a necessidade de um processo de justiça de transição, a criação de uma comissão da verdade e uma reestruturação das forças de segurança estatais.

Machado, de 59 anos, retornou à Venezuela no domingo (25), após várias tentativas frustradas ao longo deste ano. Ela foi impedida de concorrer na eleição de 2024, mas seu representante obteve uma vitória expressiva, segundo a contagem de votos apresentada pela oposição na ocasião. As instituições venezuelanas, contudo, apoiaram Maduro.

Alterações em contratos

A Venezuela precisa de contratos transparentes, licitações abertas para projetos públicos e arbitragem internacional, a fim de garantir que tanto os investidores quanto o povo venezuelano obtenham o máximo proveito de futuros investimentos, afirmou Machado.

O governo interino de Rodríguez firmou acordos com diversas empresas interessadas nos setores de petróleo, gás e mineração, com o apoio dos Estados Unidos. Entre eles, destaca-se um acordo entre a norte-americana Blue Energy Partners e o governo dos EUA para a exportação da produção proveniente de 17 campos venezuelanos.

Machado declarou que o contrato da NABEP (Blue Energy Partners) — ​​o qual ela não chegou a examinar — “evidentemente não reflete os níveis de transparência que a sociedade venezuelana deseja”, especialmente devido à figura do CEO da empresa, Alejandro Betancourt. Betancourt já foi alvo de investigações nos Estados Unidos, na Espanha e na Suíça — inclusive por lavagem de dinheiro —, embora nunca tenha sido formalmente denunciado.

“Quero enfatizar, para todos os investidores que hoje analisam a Venezuela, ou que entraram no país recentemente: todo contrato assinado legalmente será respeitado”, disse Machado, acrescentando que alguns contratos poderão ser “ajustados a novas condições que apresentaremos, as quais serão muito mais vantajosas”.

O país necessita de um acordo com o FMI (Fundo Monetário Internacional) para definir como administrará sua enorme carga de dívidas e atenderá às necessidades humanitárias urgentes, afirmou Machado.

Prisioneiros políticos

Machado — que viveu na clandestinidade por mais de um ano antes de deixar o país, período durante o qual muitos de seus colaboradores próximos foram detidos — ressaltou que a libertação dos prisioneiros políticos é fundamental para a restauração da democracia.

Há anos, a oposição venezuelana e grupos de defesa dos direitos humanos denunciam que o governo utiliza detenções para suprimir a dissidência. O governo, por sua vez, nega a existência de prisioneiros políticos.

Segundo a organização jurídica Foro Penal, 322 prisioneiros políticos encontram-se encarcerados na Venezuela; mais da metade deles sequer foi condenada. Cerca de 11 mil pessoas estão submetidas a outras restrições, como a prisão domiciliar.

A Foro Penal tem como foco garantir “a destruição do aparato repressivo” — especialmente no que diz respeito à nova alta corte —, a libertação imediata e integral de presos políticos, a revogação de leis repressivas e a criação de uma eventual comissão da verdade, afirmou à Reuters, nesta semana, o vice-presidente da organização, Gonzalo Himiob.

Rodríguez declarou, ainda nesta quinta-feira, que mais de 9 mil pessoas foram libertadas ou tiveram restrições legais removidas no âmbito de uma lei de anistia limitada.

Na segunda-feira (26), Machado visitou seu advogado, Perkins Rocha, que foi detido após a votação de 2024 e mantido por 18 meses no Helicoide, em Caracas — local onde, segundo defensores e ex-detentos, ocorrem atos de tortura. Rocha permanece em prisão domiciliar e teve seu pedido de anistia rejeitado.

Entenda por que os EUA estão interessados ​​no petróleo da Venezuela

A chegada de Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) aos Estados Unidos gerou forte repercussão no cenário político americano, tornando-se um instrumento de crítica dos democratas contra o presidente Donald Trump.

Congressistas apontaram uma contradição na postura da administração Trump: ao mesmo tempo em que nega asilo a refugiados de países em conflito, estenderia um “tapete vermelho” ao ex-candidato à presidência do Brasil.

Segundo a analista de Internacional da CNN Fernanda Magnotta, no CNN 360°, que acompanhou o desdobramento do caso de Nova York, mais de duas dezenas de páginas oficiais de autoridades no Congresso e no Senado dos Estados Unidos publicaram comentários sobre a decisão da administração Trump de acolher Flávio Bolsonaro.

A analista destacou que existe uma clara coordenação de comunicação entre os democratas, que utilizam o episódio para atacar o que chamam de política imigratória seletiva.

“Eles usam esse episódio para atacar a política imigratória de Trump e dizer que ela é uma política imigratória seletiva”, afirmou Fernanda Magnotta. Os democratas citaram exemplos como Sudão e Haiti, cujos cidadãos teriam solicitado apoio humanitário e refúgio nos Estados Unidos sem terem seus pedidos reconhecidos, mesmo em casos de comprovada violência e perseguição.

Timing favorável à narrativa democrata

O episódio ocorre em um momento particularmente delicado para Trump, a apenas uma semana das eleições de meio de mandato. Magnotta observou que, embora o dia pudesse ter sido menos problemático para o governo americano — dado que dados sobre o crescimento do PIB americano no trimestre vieram acima das projeções —, a boa notícia econômica acabou sendo ofuscada pela crise gerada pela acolhida ao brasileiro.

A analista ressaltou que a questão da imigração aparece nas pesquisas como o segundo elemento de maior sensibilidade para o eleitorado americano, e que o caso Flávio Bolsonaro abriu um novo capítulo nesse debate.

“O Brasil veio parar no coração da disputa eleitoral aqui, ainda que por razões instrumentais no momento-chave”, destacou Magnotta.

Reação republicana

Do lado republicano, a resposta foi de distanciamento do tema. Segundo Magnotta, as principais lideranças do partido tentaram desviar do assunto, sugerindo que ele ficasse em segundo plano.

Enquanto isso, os democratas não pararam de explorar a narrativa, questionando como um governo tão restritivo com imigrantes poderia oferecer acolhimento a um aliado que perdeu uma eleição e contesta seus resultados.

“Muita gente dizendo que o timing favoreceu a narrativa de acusação dos democratas”, concluiu a analista.

 

A recent New York Times article presents evidence that Alaska Democrats sought to confuse voters in that state's 2026 Senate election by introducing a second candidate with a name very similar to that of the Republican incumbent, thereby potentially siphoning off some of the latter's voters. The incumbent senator is named Dan S. Sullivan, while the other candidate is Dan J. Sullivan. As the Times reports, some of the facts here are disputable, and it is not entirely clear whether Democratic candidate Mary Peltola knew about this effort or approved of it. But it seems likely that at least some of her staffers and other Democratic operatives were involved.

Before going further, I should emphasize that this effort is worthy of condemnation. Trying to confuse voters into voting for the "wrong" candidate in this way is not how democratic political participation should work. And the fact that other politicians (including Republicans) engage in various electoral "dirty tricks" doesn't justify this one.

Elsewhere, I have explained why these kinds of actions are not illegal, and why the Trump administration's lawsuit seeking to block certification of the Alaska Senate result deserves to fail. I stand by that conclusion. Legal scholar Rick Hasen (a leading election law expert) has a helpful recent post explaining why the New York Times revelations do not change anything from a legal point of view. But the fact that this scheme is legal doesn't make it right.

That said, it is important to keep this issue in proper perspective, and especially to recognize that many other types of lies and efforts to exploit voter ignorance are much worse. Confusion caused by candidates with similar names is relatively rare, and it is difficult to find examples where it affected more than a small fraction of voters. I am not aware of even one case where it was decisive to the outcome of an election. But I welcome correction on that latter point.

The Alaska case is unlikely to be an exception to the above generalization. In the first round of the ranked-choice voting election (which narrows down the candidates to the top 4), only 2.5% of voters picked Dan J. Sullivan. Peltola led the incumbent senator by a much larger margin than that (8.1 points). Even if every single person who voted for Dan J. did so because of confusion (which is improbable), that's unlikely to change the result.

Moreover, the Alaska ranked-choice voting system reduces the risk of error. Some of those who vote for the "wrong" Dan Sullivan might rank the "right" one second. After the former gets eliminated, those votes get transferred to the latter. On top of that, as Michael Dorf points out, the Alaska ballot explicit indicates that Dan S. Sullivan is the "incumbent." That further reduces any potential confusion. The widespread publicity this issue has gotten over the last few weeks further reduces the risk of error. Many voters have probably now heard about the two Dan Sullivans and will be on guard against the problem.

It is still theoretically possible that confusion between the two Sullivans will end up having a decisive impact on the election. Some people who voted for Dan J. might not rank the other Sullivan second, or might misunderstand how the RCV system works. And some voters might (understandably) not be very careful about how they mark their ballots, thereby making a mistake despite the various safeguards against it. Still, it seems highly unlikely that such errors will have a decisive impact on the outcome.

Overall, this kind of a thing is relative molehill of a problem. Elections where it makes a decisive difference are likely to be extremely rare, at worst. By contrast, candidate lying about policy issues and exploitation of voter ignorance about them is a veritable mountain. I summarized some of the relevant evidence in an earlier post about the Alaska controversy:

Donald Trump is a particularly egregious example, going all the way back to his first campaign in 2016, and more recently with his lies about the 2020 election and other issues. But more conventional politicians also often resort to lies and deception, even if not to the same degree.  President Obama, for example, famously  lied when he claimed that, under the Affordable Care Act, "if you like your health care plan, you can keep it." That deception won the 2013 Politifact Lie of the Year award. But it still helped Obama get reelected in 2012. I am not sure exploiting voter confusion about names is any worse than exploiting their ignorance about policy issues like crime, immigration, and health care….

Ultimately, both exploitation of voter confusion about names and other deceptions used in campaigns seek to exploit widespread voter ignorance. Because of the combination of "rational ignorance" (lack of incentive to seek out political information) and "rational irrationality" (lack of incentive to engage in unbiased evaluation),  most voters know little about government and public policy, and often do a poor job of evaluating the information they do know. This makes them vulnerable to deception and manipulation, and incentivizes politicians to lie and otherwise distort the truth.

I would add that lies and deceptions about policy issues affect vastly more voters and have vastly bigger impacts on electoral outcomes than confusion about candidates' names. To take just a few recent examples, Trump in 2016 and 2024 and Obama in 2012 probably could not have won without the former. If, in 2024, key swing voters had realized that Trump's policy agenda of tariffs and mass deportations was likely to raise prices (as it predictably went on to do) rather than lower them (as he promised to do), he likely would have lost. Polls showed that prices were the biggest issue in the election for key swing voters. Trump also might well have lost if GOP base voters realized he was lying about the 2020 election, among other issues. In 2012, Obama might have lost if swing voters realized that he was lying when said that, under his signature policy initiative (the Affordable Care Act), "if you like your health care plan, you can keep it."

Effective lies and deceptions about policy issues (often exploiting preexisting voter ignorance and bias, but also deliberately seeking to create more of it) are ubiquitous. And they very often affect electoral outcomes. Even when they don't change the outcome between the candidates who run, they often have an impact on the policies those candidates adopt in the first place. As described more fully in my book Democracy and Political Ignorance, political parties and their strategists know most voters are ignorant, and often deliberately select policy agendas based on the likelihood of successfully exploiting that ignorance. The result is that even the lesser of the evils on offer in a given election (or the less egregious liars) are often still very bad.

From a moral point of view, I don't see any reason to believe lying about policy issues and exploiting voter ignorance about them is any worse than trying to trick voters into selecting the "wrong" candidate out of confusion. In practical terms, the former happens much more often than the latter, and has a far bigger effect).

Cornell law Prof. Michael Dorf recognizes that lies about policy issues are bad, but suggests that efforts to create confusion about candidate names are worse, because the latter are harder to combat with "counter-speech." I think the truth is the exact opposite. People can and do use counter-speech to oppose lies and deceptions about policy issues. But "rationally ignorant" voters will often ignore the counter-speech (not wanting to take the time and effort to study it) or reject evidence that goes against their preexisting biases. Many policy issues require considerable time and effort to understand well.

By contrast, it's much easier to find out there are two candidates with similar names in the election, and to take precautions against accidentally voting for the "wrong" one. Counter-speech to that effect need not be very complicated at all, or take a long time to understand.  In the Alaska case, for example, you just need to remember to vote for Dan S. rather than Dan J. or just know to vote for the one marked "incumbent." And figuring this out does not require going against any partisan or ideological biases.

As I have emphasized in previous writings about voter ignorance, I do not believe we can or should fight it by trying to punish politicians for their lies, or by censoring "misinformation." There is, in fact, no easy solution to the problem. But I assess a range of  options in my 2023 article on "Top-Down and Bottom-Up Solutions to the Problem of Political Ignorance, and in Democracy and Political Ignorance. I believe the best approach is to make fewer decisions at the ballot box and more by "voting with your feet," where incentives to seek out information and evaluate it wisely are much better.  In the works linked above, I also argue that we should give consideration to simply paying voters to increase their knowledge levels (e.g. by establishing a "Voter Achievement Test" and offering rewards to high scorers). But I  recognize that any effective approach will take time, and there may be no one fix that is sufficient by itself.

The beginning of wisdom here is to recognize we have a wide-ranging problem of voter ignorance, and to prioritize the most significant types of ignorance and exploitation thereof. On that scale, ignorance about policy issues should rank high, while voter confusion about candidates' names is a very minor problem, by comparison.

UPDATE: I have made minor additions to this post.

The post Creating Voter Confusion About Candidates' Names is Bad - But Exploiting Voter Ignorance About Policy Issues is a Much Bigger Problem appeared first on Reason Magazine.

US President Donald Trump said that Vice President JD Vance’s outreach to Iran was about helping the country get medical supplies, after US media reported Vance had written to Tehran’s top security official to revive peace talks.

Iran has received a letter from Vance but it has not responded to it yet, the country’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Thursday, while adding that Tehran wants the US to meet its conditions and “any position that contradicts this framework is unacceptable.”

Also on Thursday, the US military’s senior officer overseeing the Middle East, Admiral Brad Cooper, met Trump at the White House to outline military options in Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials and other people with direct knowledge of the meeting.

Reuters could not immediately independently verify this report.

Vance sent the letter to Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei in a bid to revive peace negotiations, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing US officials and people familiar with the matter. Reuters could not immediately verify the reports.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Vance sent the letter at Trump’s direction. When asked by reporters later on Wednesday if he directed Vance to reach out to Iran to restart peace negotiations, Trump said: “No.”

“What that is is they need help with medical supplies and various things. He (Vance) asked me what I thought. I said, if you want to do that, that’s okay. Basically, it’s getting supplies in to help people that are not well,” Trump told reporters.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the letter and Trump’s remark. Vance’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

TEHRAN’S CONDITIONS

Iran’s parliament speaker said on Thursday that Tehran’s conditions had been repeatedly and clearly communicated to mediators and that progress can only be achieved if Iran’s seven conditions are met.

The “carrot-and-stick approach has no effect on Iran,” Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf added.

Conditions Iran says must be met before it will reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz shipping route include, among other demands, lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports, lifting US sanctions on Iranian oil exports and ending hostilities on all regional fronts.

The United States and Israel launched a war against Iran at the end of February. The US has also since imposed a naval blockade on Iran to starve it of oil export revenue and escalated efforts to economically isolate Iran.

Iran has long blamed US sanctions for hindering civilian access to medical supplies.

In an August letter to the UN Security Council, Iran accused the US of intentionally depriving civilians “of access to food, medicines, medical equipment, energy and other necessities, with grave consequences for their rights to life, health, food and a decent standard of living.”

Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal on Sunday to end the war, but a senior Iranian official said Doha had only put forward unacceptable ideas that did not amount to an offer.

The war’s impact on global energy costs has also weighed on support for Republican candidates and hurt Trump’s approval ratings ahead of the US midterm elections that decide control of Congress. Trump’s Republican Party holds a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress.

The Trump administration is carrying out the most intense pressure campaign on Cuba in decades. The Cuban government says its plan is simply to endure.

© Graham Dickie for The New York Times

O presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, alegou que os dirigentes do Fed (Federal Reserve) não decidem por um corte nas taxas de juros porque “isso seria positivo” para o mandatário, ao discursar em um comício na Carolina do Sul, às vésperas da eleição americana de meio mandato.

“Hoje vimos dados que mostram que a economia está em expansão”, defendeu, em referência à leitura de aceleração do crescimento do PIB (Produto Interno Bruto) dos EUA no 3º trimestre.

Na ocasião, Trump disse que o número veio “muito acima” das expectativas. A primeira leitura do PIB mostrou expansão a 3,4%. Analistas consultados pela Broadcast (Sistema de notícias em tempo real do Grupo Estado) esperavam alta de 3,2%.

Já sobre geopolítica, o presidente americano voltou a dizer que a guerra contra o Irã acabará “muito, muito em breve”.

The United States has privately warned Middle Eastern allies to prepare for renewed military operations against Iran following the 3 November congressional elections, according to diplomatic sources. Although President Donald Trump has not authorised further strikes, the warnings have heightened concerns about regional escalation, energy infrastructure and the consequences for European economies already facing rising fuel costs.

American officials have advised several governments in the Middle East to prepare for possible new military strikes against Iran after next week’s US midterm elections, raising the prospect of another escalation in a conflict that has already disrupted international energy markets.

According to an Associated Press investigation published on 29 October, two diplomats familiar with the warnings said US officials had urged regional allies to consider the possibility of Iranian retaliation against energy facilities and other critical infrastructure.

The diplomats emphasised that President Donald Trump had not made a final decision to resume military operations.

Nevertheless, Washington’s warnings suggest that preparations are being discussed for a potential campaign extending over several days.

Regional governments are concerned that retaliatory action by Iran or organisations aligned with Tehran could prolong the fighting beyond the duration initially envisaged by the United States.

The White House and American officials declined to comment on the reported communications.

Military Preparations and Political Timing

The warnings come as Trump approaches the final days of campaigning ahead of the 3 November elections.

The president has repeatedly suggested that further military action against Iran could follow the vote, although he has also claimed that the conflict may be approaching its conclusion.

During a campaign appearance in Texas, Trump said the war could end within weeks, while reiterating his insistence that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons.

The timing of possible military action remains uncertain.

The Pentagon has increased its regional military presence, including the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and additional amphibious forces.

Approximately 9,000 military personnel were associated with the deployment announced in September.

However, the movement of forces does not establish that an attack has been authorised or that particular targets have been selected.

American military preparations can also serve as deterrence, signalling and contingency planning.

The distinction is important because the political consequences of renewed strikes would depend on their scale, objectives and Iranian response.

Tehran Maintains That Diplomacy Remains Possible

Iran has indicated that it remains willing to pursue negotiations.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on 28 October that Tehran was continuing to consider diplomatic proposals and wanted elements of its earlier ceasefire initiative to form the basis for renewed discussions.

That proposal had previously been rejected by Washington.

The continuing disagreement concerns both the conditions for ending military operations and wider questions about Iran’s nuclear programme.

The United Arab Emirates has urged the parties to seek political solutions and avoid returning to large-scale fighting.

Regional governments face a particularly difficult position because they may be exposed to retaliation even when they are not directly involved in American military operations.

Energy facilities, airports, ports and other infrastructure could become targets during an escalation.

Such attacks would also affect civilian populations and commercial activity beyond the immediate combatants.

The Conflict Has Already Spread

The war involving Iran, the United States and Israel began in late February and has subsequently affected other parts of the Middle East.

Iran-aligned Houthi forces have carried out attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and airports, prompting retaliatory operations by a Saudi-led coalition against targets in Yemen.

These developments have complicated attempts to contain the conflict geographically.

The United States has not conducted a strike against Iran since early September, according to the reporting available on 29 October.

However, the absence of recent American attacks has not removed the risk of renewed operations.

Regional governments are therefore considering a range of possible developments, including limited strikes, a longer military campaign or retaliatory attacks preceding any American operation.

None of these scenarios should be treated as inevitable.

Europe Faces Another Energy Risk

For the European Union, a renewed confrontation would have implications extending well beyond diplomatic relations with Washington.

The Middle East remains a major source of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important to international energy shipping, connecting producers in the Persian Gulf with markets in Europe and Asia.

An increase in attacks on shipping, production facilities or export terminals could place further pressure on global energy prices.

The consequences would not necessarily be confined to countries purchasing oil or gas directly from the region.

European consumers compete in internationally connected markets, meaning supply disruptions can influence prices even where import arrangements have been diversified.

The EU has substantially reduced its dependence on Russian pipeline gas since 2022, but growing reliance on liquefied natural gas creates exposure to fluctuations in international supply and demand.

A further Middle Eastern escalation could therefore complicate Europe’s efforts to rebuild gas reserves and contain industrial energy costs before winter.

Higher fuel prices would also affect transport, food production and household expenditure.

The Strategic Dilemma for European Governments

European governments must balance several interests.

They support efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation, maintain relations with the United States and preserve stability in the Middle East.

At the same time, they have a direct economic interest in avoiding prolonged disruption to maritime trade and energy production.

A new American military campaign could revive debates concerning the legality, necessity and proportionality of military action, particularly if diplomatic alternatives remain available.

European governments may also face decisions about the protection of their nationals, regional diplomatic missions and commercial shipping.

The immediate significance of Washington’s warnings lies in the possibility of renewed hostilities, not in confirmation that such hostilities have been ordered.

With the American elections approaching, governments across the Middle East and Europe are preparing for developments that remain contingent on decisions in Washington and Tehran.

Whether the warnings lead to military action or renewed diplomacy will determine the next phase of a conflict whose economic effects are already being felt far beyond the region.

Photo: Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Kaylianna Genier / US Navy / Wikimedia Commons (Public Domain).

Democrats lead national polls as Trump and Obama campaign in key states six days before the US midterm elections.

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) deve fazer a solicitação de residência permanente nos Estados Unidos “em algum momento”, e o pedido seria processado rapidamente pelo governo de Donald Trump, assim como ocorreu com Eduardo Bolsonaro, segundo o NYT (New York Times).

O green card, documento que deve ser solicitado por Flávio, permite que estrangeiros residam e trabalhem legalmente nos EUA por tempo indeterminado, desde que cumpram as regras da legislação migratória norte-americana.

Eduardo conseguiu o green card em julho deste ano, após mais de um ano esperando pelo atendimento da solicitação à administração federal.

Atualmente, o senador e sua família receberam do governo de Trump uma autorização condicional para permanecer nos Estados Unidos por até um ano. Assim, poderão ficar no país até outubro de 2027, pelo menos.

Essa permissão é concedida em casos específicos, incluindo casos de urgência humanitária.

Assessor de Trump providenciou jato em que Flávio fugiu

Ainda segundo o NYT, Jason Miller, um funcionário da área de comunicação da Casa Branca, providenciou o jato utilizado por Flávio Bolsonaro na fuga para os EUA.

O senador viajou na noite de terça-feira (27) com essa aeronave da Argentina para o Equador, onde foi feito o reabastecimento, e, então, para Miami, de acordo com uma fonte “a par da logística” dessa viagem ouvida pelo jornal americano.

Eduardo Bolsonaro manteve contato com o assessor de Donald Trump, ainda de acordo com o NYT. “O plano foi colocado em prática na segunda-feira, depois que o Sr. [Flávio] Bolsonaro foi orientado a entregar seus passaportes, informou a fonte”, pontua a reportagem.

Questionada sobre o assunto pela CNN Brasil, a Casa Branca redirecionou os questionamentos a Jason Miller. A CNN Brasil também entrou em contato com o Departamento de Estado dos Estados Unidos e com o assessor de Trump e aguarda retorno.

Trump diz que não vai se envolver

Na quarta-feira (28), Donald Trump confirmou que os Estados Unidos concederam a permissão para que Flávio entrasse no país.

Entretanto, quando foi perguntado por repórteres sobre a carta com teor golpista em que Flávio se autodeclarou “presidente eleito” do Brasil, o líder dos EUA afirmou que não comentaria o caso.

“Não vou me envolver. Foi uma eleição muito estranha, isso é certo”, acrescentou em outro momento.

Trump tem feito acusações, sem mostrar provas, de que a eleição brasileira pode ter sido fraudada. Autoridades do Brasil e de outros países, além de especialistas de órgãos independentes, atestaram a lisura da votação.

O presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) foi reeleito no domingo (25) com vantagem de cerca de 4,4 milhões de votos sobre Flávio Bolsonaro. O petista recebeu 64,2 milhões de votos, contra 59,8 milhões do adversário.

A área internacional do Palácio do Planalto avalia que o governo brasileiro deve aguardar a situação envolvendo a fuga do senador Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) “decantar” antes de conceder o agrément ao indicado por Donald Trump à embaixada dos Estados Unidos no Brasil.

A avaliação é de que não faz sentido dar o aval diplomático ao republicano enquanto o presidente americano questionar o processo eleitoral no Brasil.

Além disso, o Planalto aguarda qual será a estratégia da Casa Branca em relação ao Brasil após o resultado das eleições de meio de mandato nos EUA, que vai definir a composição no Congresso local, se de maioria republicana ou democrata.

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Até o momento, Donald Trump não parabenizou o presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) pela vitória no domingo (25). Pelo contrário, nos últimos dias, o americano tem sugerido, sem apresentar provas, que a votação para a Presidência do Brasil teria sido fraudada. Mas destaca que gosta de Lula e que se dá bem com o petista.

O governo Lula decidiu não se manifestar oficialmente sobre a declaração do republicano, nem sobre uma suposta participação da Casa Branca na fuga de Flávio Bolsonaro.

Embora a avaliação no Planalto seja de “aguardar” conceder as cartas credenciais ao indicado de Trump, a avaliação sobre a concessão de agrément é de competência do Itamaraty, processo que corre sob sigilo.

Até antes do segundo turno das eleições, ainda sob duvidas de quem sairia o vencedor nas urnas, a equipe diplomática do Palácio do Planalto havia sido informada de que o Itamaraty não havia identificado, até o momento, nenhum indicativo que impeça o nome de Daniel Perez para exercer a função de embaixador no Brasil.

Com expectativa de que a concessão do aval poderia acontecer até o fim do ano, mesmo que o petista não vencesse as eleições para um próximo mandato.

Lula suspendeu a concessão de agréments até depois do segundo turno das eleições, o que acabou paralisando a autorização para países como o próprio Estados Unidos, Ucrânia e Síria.

EUA rebaixou visto da embaixadora brasileira

A área internacional do Palácio do Planalto sugere que o governo brasileiro deve condicionar a autorização de visto com livre trânsito a Daniel Perez, indicado pelos Estados Unidos a embaixador no Brasil, ao mesmo tratamento dado pela Casa Branca à embaixadora brasileira em Washington, Maria Luiza Viotti.

Em agosto, Viotti teve o visto de entradas múltiplas em território americano, prerrogativa de um embaixador, revogado. A medida foi tomada pelo Departamento de Estado americano, que equivale ao Ministério de Relações Exteriores no Brasil.

Na época, o secretário de Estado, Marco Rubio, alegou reciprocidade em razão de o governo brasileiro ainda não ter autorizado o novo embaixador americano no país.

 

A temporary ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has held for a third day around the occupied town of Oleshky, allowing preparations for food deliveries and civilian evacuations. The agreement, mediated with the involvement of US First Lady Melania Trump, represents a limited diplomatic development in a war where attempts to establish broader ceasefires have repeatedly failed.

Russia and Ukraine have maintained a localised ceasefire around Oleshky in the southern Kherson region, creating an opportunity to deliver humanitarian assistance to civilians who have spent months effectively isolated from regular supplies of food, medicine and drinking water.

Ukrainian Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets said on 29 October that neither side had reported violations of the agreement and that teams were continuing to clear mines from roads intended for humanitarian convoys.

According to Associated Press, the six-day arrangement began on 27 October and is expected to remain in force until 1 November.

The first substantial humanitarian delivery is scheduled for Friday, 30 October.

An estimated 1,700 to 2,000 civilians remain in Oleshky, many of them elderly residents whose health, mobility or personal circumstances have prevented them from leaving.

The town is situated on the Russian-occupied eastern bank of the Dnipro River, opposite Ukrainian-controlled Kherson.

Its geographical position has made it particularly vulnerable to the consequences of the fighting, while damaged infrastructure, mines and military restrictions have complicated access for humanitarian organisations.

Melania Trump’s Unusual Diplomatic Role

The agreement has attracted attention because of the involvement of US First Lady Melania Trump.

In a White House statement issued on 23 October, her office announced that she had worked with Russian and Ukrainian representatives to secure arrangements for a temporary cessation of military activity.

The statement described her as the intermediary in the negotiations, covering the timing of the ceasefire, humanitarian access, evacuation procedures and operational coordination.

Lubinets subsequently acknowledged her involvement and said communication with his Russian counterpart, Yana Lantratova, had helped maintain the arrangement.

The White House originally announced 29 October as the starting date, but Ukrainian officials later reported that the ceasefire had taken effect at 3am on 27 October.

By Thursday, both sides were describing the agreement as holding without recorded violations.

The participation of the American First Lady is an unusual feature of international humanitarian diplomacy, which is more commonly conducted through governments, international organisations or specialist humanitarian agencies.

However, the immediate significance of the agreement will be determined by whether assistance reaches residents and whether those wishing to leave can do so safely.

A Town Cut Off from Essential Supplies

Oleshky has experienced prolonged humanitarian difficulties under Russian occupation.

The town suffered extensive disruption following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in June 2023, which caused severe flooding across communities along the Dnipro.

Subsequent fighting, damage to infrastructure and restrictions on movement further complicated access to essential goods.

According to Ukrainian officials, normal deliveries of food to the town have been effectively interrupted since late May 2026.

Residents have faced shortages of medicines and clean water, while the presence of mines has made movement beyond residential areas hazardous.

The remaining population is believed to consist largely of older people and residents requiring medical attention.

For these civilians, humanitarian access is not simply a matter of replenishing household supplies.

It may determine whether individuals can receive essential treatment, obtain prescription medicines or leave areas where normal medical and social services have ceased functioning.

The Evacuation Challenge

The ceasefire provides for humanitarian teams to assess residents’ needs and arrange transport for those who wish to leave.

The White House has indicated that residents should be able to choose their destination, including Ukrainian-controlled territory or Russia.

Ensuring that such decisions are genuinely voluntary is particularly important in occupied territory.

International humanitarian law provides protections for civilians under occupation, including restrictions concerning forcible transfers and deportations.

A credible evacuation process therefore requires clear information, freedom from coercion and practical arrangements allowing residents to travel safely.

The presence of journalists accompanying the mission may provide additional documentation, although media access does not replace independent humanitarian monitoring.

Russian and Ukrainian representatives have also been coordinating mine clearance along routes intended for humanitarian vehicles.

Until those routes are confirmed safe, the delivery of assistance and movement of civilians remain dependent on operational conditions.

A Ceasefire That Does Not Extend Beyond Oleshky

The agreement remains geographically limited.

Russian strikes continued elsewhere in Ukraine on 29 October, killing civilians in several cities, including Dnipro.

The continuing attacks demonstrate that the localised humanitarian arrangement does not represent a broader change in Russian military operations or the strategic direction of the war.

Nevertheless, the pause has also brought some relief to residents of nearby Ukrainian-controlled Kherson, where repeated attacks have disrupted daily life.

The absence of reported violations around Oleshky suggests that the two sides retain the ability to coordinate narrowly defined humanitarian measures when political and operational arrangements are in place.

That does not necessarily imply an increased willingness to compromise over territory or broader security questions.

What Happens After 1 November?

The agreement is scheduled to expire on 1 November, leaving only a limited period for delivering aid and facilitating departures.

Its effectiveness will depend on the quantities of assistance delivered, the number of residents reached and whether evacuation arrangements operate as intended.

It will also be necessary to establish what protection, if any, is available to civilians who remain after the ceasefire ends.

A successful operation could provide a model for similarly limited humanitarian arrangements elsewhere along the front.

However, extending such cooperation would require further political consent and practical security guarantees.

For Oleshky’s remaining residents, the immediate question is more urgent: whether several days without fighting can provide the assistance and safe passage that months of war have denied them.

Tankers, tracked by Greenpeace, are first phase of Trump-Putin deal – but there is uncertainty over whether they will unload

Seven oil tankers carrying an estimated 288,000 tonnes of Russian diesel are now sailing towards the US, though it is uncertain if the vessels will be able to unload amid a political row about the legality of the shipments.

The transport, tracked by the pressure group Greenpeace, is the first phase of a contentious supply deal negotiated between presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin earlier this month, reversing years of sanctions on Russia oil.

Continue reading...

© Photograph: Martin Witte/Alamy

© Photograph: Martin Witte/Alamy

© Photograph: Martin Witte/Alamy

Tankers, tracked by Greenpeace, are first phase of Trump-Putin deal – but there is uncertainty over whether they will unload

Seven oil tankers carrying an estimated 288,000 tonnes of Russian diesel are now sailing towards the US, though it is uncertain if the vessels will be able to unload amid a political row about the legality of the shipments.

The transport, tracked by the pressure group Greenpeace, is the first phase of a contentious supply deal negotiated between presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin earlier this month, reversing years of sanctions on Russia oil.

Continue reading...

© Photograph: Martin Witte/Alamy

© Photograph: Martin Witte/Alamy

© Photograph: Martin Witte/Alamy