❌

Normal view

Indemnités de rupture : le PLFSS taxe l'ancienneté, pas les parachutes dorés

19 October 2026 at 09:34

Par Vincent Clairmont

Le gouvernement plafonne à 48 060 euros l'exonération sociale des indemnités de rupture et assure ne viser que 5 % de salariés aisés. Le barème des prud'hommes désigne un salarié à 3 000 euros brut, licencié à tort après trente ans. Rendement : 300 millions d'euros.

Indemnités de rupture : le PLFSS taxe l'ancienneté, pas les parachutes dorés
LE COURRIER
DES STRATÈGES
Restez libre !
Indemnités de rupture : le PLFSS taxe l'ancienneté, pas les parachutes dorés

LA NEWSLETTER · GRATUITE

Le Courrier,
chaque matin.

L'essentiel de l'actualité, passé au crible par les cinq plumes du Courrier. Dans votre boîte, chaque jour ouvré.

Gratuit. Vous restez libre de partir quand vous voulez.

JE M'INSCRIS lecourrierdesstrateges.fr
lecourrierdesstrateges.fr
Restez libre !

Les indemnités de rupture du contrat de travail ont représenté environ 9 milliards d'euros en 2024, versés à plus de 800 000 salariés, selon le rapport IGAS-IGF publié le 22 mai 2026. Les inspections chiffrent leurs exonérations à 1,9 milliard : 0,4 pour l'impôt sur le revenu, 1,5 pour le volet social. L'article 6 du projet de loi de financement de la Sécurité sociale pour 2027, dont la discussion s'ouvre demain en séance, ramène l'exonération de cotisations et de CSG à un plafond unique d'un plafond annuel de la Sécurité sociale (PASS), soit 48 060 euros, contre deux aujourd'hui. Rendement attendu : 0,3 milliard d'euros.

Le gouvernement présente la mesure comme une simplification, et ajoute qu'elle ne concerne que « 5 % des salariés les mieux rémunérés », les 95 % restants demeurant intégralement exonérés.

Ma thèse : ce plafond ne vise pas les hauts salaires. Il vise l'ancienneté. Il frappe d'abord des salariés ordinaires licenciés après cinquante ans, pour 300 millions d'euros, soit 2,4 % du déficit prévu de la Sécurité sociale.

Budget 2027 : ce que l'Assemblée a fait mardi du PLF et du PLFSS
Motion de rejet repoussée par 236 voix contre 149, « le comment, pas le combien », PLFSS en commission : ce que l'Assemblée a fait mardi du budget 2027, mesure par mesure
Indemnités de rupture : le PLFSS taxe l'ancienneté, pas les parachutes dorés
LE COURRIER
DES STRATÈGES
Restez libre !

ABONNEMENT

Allez au fond
des choses.

Deux grands formats par jour. Les cinq plumes du Courrier. La série Sécession, le dimanche.

Le monde commente. Vous, vous comprenez.

S'ABONNER lecourrierdesstrateges.fr
lecourrierdesstrateges.fr
Restez libre !

Premier point : les 5 % ne sont pas ceux qu'on croit

Le seuil d'un PASS s'applique au montant de l'indemnité, pas au salaire. Or le montant d'une indemnité dépend d'abord de l'ancienneté. L'avocat Xavier Berjot, dans son analyse du texte, prend un salarié payé 3 000 euros brut par mois, licencié après trente ans de maison. C'est moins que le salaire brut moyen du privé, 3 602 euros en 2024 selon l'Insee. Le barème des prud'hommes lui accorde au plus vingt mois de salaire, soit 60 000 euros. Il dépasse le plafond de 11 940 euros, qui

France’s Unrest Exposes the Failure of Macron’s Centrist Political Model

19 October 2026 at 02:54

What began as a student protest over deteriorating schools has developed into a nationwide revolt against economic hardship, political paralysis and declining public services. With the 2027 presidential election approaching, the violence has exposed problems that neither the government nor its principal opponents have convincing plans to resolve.

France’s latest wave of unrest has developed into one of the most serious domestic crises of Emmanuel Macron’s presidency. More than 550,000 people participated in demonstrations on 17 October, according to official estimates, before violence spread through Paris and other major cities. Shops were looted, police confronted rioters, and the historic town hall in Limoges was largely destroyed by fire.

The scale of the destruction prompted emergency government consultations and a televised presidential address. Macron promised to prosecute those responsible, while stopping short of declaring a state of emergency. Yet the immediate security challenge conceals a more difficult political question: why have protests that began with relatively specific demands over education become a confrontation involving such different sections of French society?

From school protests to a national revolt

The movement originated among secondary-school students demanding better facilities, more teachers and improvements in educational standards. Their complaints subsequently attracted trade unions, workers, farmers and elements of the Gilets Jaunes, the Yellow Vest movement that challenged Macron’s government in 2018.

The resulting coalition has no coherent political programme. Students protesting overcrowded classrooms share demonstrations with workers concerned about purchasing power and motorists angered by fuel prices. Their interests are not necessarily compatible, but they reflect a common dissatisfaction with the government’s ability to deliver functioning public services while containing living costs.

This distinction matters. The presence of masked rioters and organised groups engaged in violence does not establish that the hundreds of thousands who demonstrated peacefully supported their actions. Equally, the destruction of public buildings, attacks on police and widespread looting raise legitimate questions about the state’s capacity to maintain public order.

The economic problem behind the protests

At the centre of the discontent lies a structural problem that successive French governments have struggled to confront: the distribution of public expenditure between an ageing population and the services required by younger generations.

A French government budget assessment published in October revealed that pension obligations accounted for approximately 32 per cent of the education ministry’s budget, including €28.5 billion in pension expenditure. These obligations restrict the resources available for other departmental priorities.

France nevertheless remains a substantial spender on education. According to official figures, expenditure reached €199.2 billion in 2025, equivalent to 6.7 per cent of GDP. However, after inflation, the annual increase was only 0.1 per cent.

The issue is therefore not simply how much France spends, but how efficiently resources are allocated and whether expenditure meets changing educational needs.

The OECD’s 2025 PISA assessment found that French pupils’ performance in mathematics and reading had declined compared with 2022. Results were among the country’s lowest recorded, although broadly comparable with the OECD average.

These figures give the student protests a significance extending beyond the immediate condition of classrooms. They raise questions about France’s longer-term economic competitiveness and its capacity to provide younger generations with opportunities comparable to those enjoyed by their predecessors.

The limits of Macron’s reform programme

Macron entered office in 2017 promising to modernise the French economy and overcome the traditional division between left and right. Nearly a decade later, his administration faces a fragmented parliament, constrained public finances and growing resistance to further structural reforms.

The suspension of his pension reform illustrated the difficulty. Raising the retirement age was intended to reduce pressure on the pension system, but parliamentary opposition forced the government to defer the measure until after the presidential election.

The underlying financial pressures have not disappeared. Nor can they be resolved easily through additional spending when public debt, borrowing costs and budgetary obligations already restrict the government’s room for manoeuvre.

This creates an uncomfortable political reality: the state is expected to provide better services, greater purchasing-power protection and stronger security, while the available resources remain limited.

Can the opposition benefit?

The unrest comes approximately six months before the presidential election, with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed competing to establish themselves as alternatives to Macron’s political centre.

Le Pen has sought to combine support for economic grievances with demands for tougher policing. That position may attract voters concerned by the violence, but it also exposes tensions within a movement that previously supported the Yellow Vest protests.

Mélenchon faces a different difficulty. Supporting demonstrations against government policy is consistent with his political programme, but the involvement of violent groups risks shifting public attention from social demands towards questions of security.

A recent presidential opinion poll even suggested that Le Pen and Mélenchon could contest the final round, illustrating the weakening position of more conventional political alternatives.

Neither, however, can escape the fiscal constraints that have frustrated Macron’s government. A change of president would not automatically provide the resources required to expand public services, reform pensions and reduce the deficit simultaneously.

A wider problem for France and Europe

President Donald Trump has attributed the French unrest to immigration, although the movement’s documented origins lie principally in education, living costs and dissatisfaction with public services. Without established evidence about those responsible for individual acts of violence, broader claims about the demonstrators’ backgrounds remain speculative.

For the European Union, France’s instability carries consequences beyond its domestic political debate. France is central to European defence, fiscal negotiations and support for Ukraine. Sustained political paralysis would complicate its ability to negotiate and implement decisions requiring substantial public expenditure.

The immediate task for Macron’s government is to restore security without allowing the legitimate grievances of peaceful demonstrators to disappear from political consideration. The more difficult task will fall to whoever enters the Élysée in 2027.

France’s crisis is not simply a repetition of the Yellow Vest movement. It reflects a growing conflict over public resources, expectations of the state and the ability of established political institutions to reconcile competing demands.

The violence may subside, but the economic contradictions that brought such different groups onto the streets will remain. The presidential election will determine who inherits them, rather than whether they exist.

❌