SpaceX founder Elon Musk says that if Ukraine fires through Starlink, Russia would be entitled to shoot the network down. That is why Starlink must remain a civilian operation and cannot be used for outright offensive strikes that would put its very existence at risk.

The warning lands in the middle of a fight over Musk’s own hand on that network. Weeks ago, his company unexpectedly throttled the service Ukraine’s drones depend on amid US President Donald Trump diesel deal with Russia, which led to the disruption of a few operations on the front.

The US Treasury authorized the sale, delivery, offloading, and import of Russian-origin diesel fuel, effectively suspending sanctions on that trade until 7 April 2027, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said on its website on 9 October.

The diesel deal combining intelligence halt and military Starlink, with pressure on Ukraine to make a quick peace deal, has angered both Democrats and Republicans ahead of the US elections on 3 November, where Democrats could win.

Meanwhile, a Ukrainian official interprets Musk's talk of strikes as an attempt to build an alibi before a possible investigation into that decision.

A civilian network, or a target

Musk was responding to a post warning that if Starlink shifted from a civilian network into a military system, Russia could treat it as a target for retaliation, and that destroying satellites in orbit could scatter enough debris to make space unusable for years or centuries.

“An adversary blowing up Starlink satellites would create a domino effect of destruction that would generate a vast field of debris, making space unusable," he writes.

When the shield and the warnings failed together

Overnight into 14 October, SpaceX quietly capped the speed of Starshield, the military version Ukraine’s drones run on, without telling Kyiv. Ukrainian units said the limit broke a series of missions, with connections dropping mid-flight and leaving drones hard to control.

At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine relies on the network for air defense, not attack, to intercept the Russian drones Moscow sends to its cities, and that once the speed was cut, his forces could no longer stop some of them as effectively as before.

Simultaneously, Ukraine's other American lifeline also went dark: for about three days, the US stopped passing the intelligence that warns of Russian ballistic launches. On 12 October, Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv before the air-raid alert reached people, with no advance data from partners. In a strike during that window, three people were killed in the capital, the sirens sounding only after the blasts.

A Ukrainian official sees alibi-building

Meanwhile, Andrii Kovalenko, the ex-head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, read Musk’s statement as self-protection rather than physics

“Musk, having taken responsibility for the restrictions on Starlink and Starshield for Ukraine, is now trying to build himself an alibi before a possible investigation into that decision,” he wrote.

He said that regardless of who was behind the idea of restricting Starlink and Starshield access for Ukraine, it represents a strategic setback for the US in the long run, as it risks portraying the country as an unreliable partner that may fail to honor its commitments.

"Europe purchases around 60% of its imported weapons from the US. Trust in the US as a security guarantor directly supports sales for American defense companies. Moves like this only undermine that trust and encourage European countries to develop their own systems," he said.

The US has sent a message that its guarantees may not be reliable and that even paid-for services can be subject to political decisions, Kovalenko stressed.

If Democrats win the House, and possibly the Senate, a result nonpartisan analysts call plausible, they would gain the power to bring new Ukraine aid to a vote and to push back on President Donald Trump’s deals easing pressure on Russia, Reuters reports in an analysis of how US foreign policy could shift.

The stakes are concrete. Trump has largely halted direct US aid to Ukraine, which lawmakers of both parties had backed, and its current supplies run from packages passed under his predecessor.

Weeks ago, he also waived the sanctions on Russian energy that Congress had written into law and struck a deal to bring Russian diesel back to the market, angering Republicans and Democrats alike.

What a Democratic Congress could do for Ukraine

With both chambers, Democrats could put new Ukraine aid on the floor, and given the bipartisan support such aid has drawn, it could pass with the two-thirds majorities needed to override a Trump veto.

Other steps could be taken, too. Representative Gregory Meeks of New York, in line to chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee if his party wins control, has already introduced bipartisan legislation to block Trump’s plan to return Russian diesel to the global market.

Democrats are also readier than Trump’s Republicans to rein in military spending. They blocked his request for an unprecedented 67% rise in the military budget, to $1.5 trillion, in the Senate, and many say they will try to restore the foreign aid he has withheld or canceled.

The limits of a slice of power

The leverage has limits. Even with both chambers, Democrats would still face a president who can veto, and overriding him would require two-thirds of each chamber. The pattern has already been visible in Iran: Trump launched that war on 28 February without congressional approval, and when a War Powers resolution passed with a handful of Republican votes, his administration ignored it.

The US midterms could restore Ukraine’s American aid and curb Trump’s Russia deals, if Democrats win Congress

Ukraine reportedly struck the Energiya plant in Yelets, Russia’s Lipetsk Oblast, with UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles on 25 October, according to the OSINT channel Exilenova+.

The plant manufactures batteries and power sources used in Russian weapons systems, including Iskander and Kinzhal missiles, air defense systems, and guided aerial bombs, according to Exilenova+. The reported strike targeted a facility that supplies components for Russia’s military-industrial complex as Moscow continues its war against Ukraine.

According to Exilenova+, Energiya is Russia's only producer of batteries for glide bomb planning and correction modules, as well as a key supplier of specialized power sources for several missile systems.

Storm Shadow missiles reportedly hit plant buildings

Exilenova+ reported multiple missile impacts at the Energiya plant, sharing footage and photos showing explosions, thick smoke, and fires at the facility. The channel later reported that the plant was still burning and that the surrounding area had been cordoned off, with numerous ambulances heading to the site.

Dnipro OSINT reported that at least two missiles struck two buildings at the plant.

The Energiya plant is located in Yelets, approximately 250 km (150 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

Plant produces components for Russian weapons

According to Dnipro OSINT, Energiya specializes in developing and manufacturing chemical power sources. Its products are used in several Russian weapons systems, including Iskander-K and Iskander-M missiles, Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, Zircon missiles, and Pantsir air defense systems. The plant also supplies power sources for UMPB D-30SN guided aerial bombs.

Many of these weapons are used in Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities, killing civilians and destroying residential buildings and civilian infrastructure.

Dnipro OSINT said the plant had been attacked at least four times before the 25 October strike.

The strike comes two days after a reported Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile attack on the Proton electronics plant in Russia’s Oryol on 23 October, which produces electronic components used in Russian weapons systems, including Iskander-M ballistic missiles and Pantsir-S1 air defense systems.

A drone attack damaged an industrial facility in Russia’s Perm Krai early on 25 October, injuring five workers, Ukrainian monitoring channel Exilenova+ reported. Exilenova+ identified the target as the AVISMA chemical and metallurgical plant in Berezniki, around 1,500 km from Ukraine’s border. 

The reported strike highlights Ukraine’s ability to reach industrial facilities deep inside Russia that support its military-industrial complex. 

AVISMA produces titanium materials used in aviation and aerospace manufacturing, including military aircraft, aircraft engines, missiles, and space technology, according to Exilenova+.

Regional governor Dmitry Makhonin said the industrial facility sustained damage but continued operating normally. He said five workers were injured in the attack.

A target deep inside Russia

Perm Krai lies in Russia’s Ural region, roughly 1,500 km from Ukraine’s border. The distance places the reported strike far beyond Russia’s border regions, where Ukrainian drone attacks have frequently targeted military and industrial infrastructure.

The reported attack follows a broader Ukrainian campaign against Russian industrial and energy facilities linked to the country’s war effort. 

Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed that air defenses intercepted and destroyed 532 Ukrainian drones overnight across 23 Russian regions and over the Sea of Azov, according to Russian state news agency TASS. 

The reported interceptions included drones over Perm Krai, as well as regions around Moscow and areas in southern and western Russia. The figures have not been independently verified.

The extent of damage at AVISMA and any impact on its operations have not been independently established.

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the MegaGRINN shopping and entertainment complex in the Russian city of Belgorod during a mass drone attack overnight on 25 October, when the mall was closed and no visitors were inside, according to the Ukrainian monitoring channel Exilenova+.

Russian authorities reported that a civilian was killed and 10 people were injured in the broader mass drone attack on Belgorod. One of the injured was an ambulance worker, according to the regional operational headquarters. 

The majority of the drones reportedly targeted one area in the city center, according to ASTRA.

Belgorod’s largest shopping complex targeted

Exilenova+ identified the reported target as MegaGRINN, Belgorod’s largest shopping and entertainment complex covering about 163,000 square meters. The facility houses more than 200 stores, a supermarket, restaurants, a cinema, and entertainment areas.

Belgorod is a Russian city about 34 kilometers (21 miles) from Ukraine’s northeastern border and roughly 70 kilometers (43 miles) from Kharkiv. The city and surrounding oblast have repeatedly come under Ukrainian drone attacks during Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.

Belgorod Oblast borders Ukraine’s Sumy, Kharkiv, and Luhansk oblasts. Russian forces have used the region to launch missile and drone attacks on Ukraine and to stage ground offensives across the border.

Update: Ukraine’s General Staff reports strikes on Russian radar stations in Belgorod Oblast

Update 18:00: Ukraine’s General Staff said Ukrainian forces struck Russian radar stations near Hostishchevo and Kurgannoye in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast on 24 October and overnight on 25 October.

The General Staff said the strikes would create gaps in Russian radar coverage and expand Ukraine’s ability to use unmanned systems. 

The update did not mention an attack on Belgorod city or the shopping mall.

Russia steps up attacks on Ukrainian retail infrastructure

The reported strike comes amid an intensified Russian campaign against Ukrainian retail and logistics infrastructure. These attacks have included strikes on shopping centers during business hours, including a 21 August Russian drone attack on the crowded Soniachna Halereia mall in Kryvyi Rih, where 16 people were killed and more than 120 injured.

The reported strike on MegaGRINN took place overnight, when the complex was reportedly closed and empty of visitors. Russian authorities reported casualties from the wider attack on Belgorod, but have not linked them to the mall.

Ukraine's military satellite links work at full speed again after a cap that hobbled its drones, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said on 24 October. Hours later, SpaceX owner Elon Musk, who earlier pointed at Washington, said his company had enforced its own rules. A Ukrainian presidential adviser and a drone volunteer replied that civilian Starlink could not fly such missions.

Ukraine holds off Russia with American tools it doesn't control, so any pause decided abroad, like stalled Patriot deliveries or the Starlink cap, opens gaps in its defense. With no stated rule on what Ukraine's forces may do, the next cutoff could again come unannounced and unexplained.

Kyiv records full speed again

The ministry recorded stable connections above 400 km/h (250 mph). Before, Kyiv said, links on Starlink and its military version, Starshield, cut out above 161 km/h (100 mph).

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the restoration began overnight. "The speeds are now where they need to be," he said, citing defense against jet-powered Shahed drones. He thanked US lawmakers, the media, the State Department, and the US President, but not Musk or SpaceX.

Musk: "That loophole was closed last week"

Musk replied "Correct" to an X user who called Starlink "not a weapons system." "Ukraine military violated Starlink terms of service and used it for offensive drone strikes to kill people. That loophole was closed last week," he wrote.

Correct.

Using Starlink, a civilian commercial service, for offensive drone strikes to kill people has never been allowed, nor should it be.

Starshield, a different system, is controlled by the US government. What they decide to do is up to them.

Ukraine military violated… https://t.co/ZXBB8bYfPn

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 24, 2026

He called Starshield "a different system" the US government controls, and warned: "Were Starlink to be turned off, the Ukrainian front line would collapse immediately. This is NOT a threat, it is simply a statement of fact."

Musk named no evidence, cases, or time frames. Overnight, he answered a headline on the US financial blog ZeroHedge saying he "admits" SpaceX throttled Starlink.

"We simply enforced our terms of service when they were bypassed. There has been no change to our terms of service," Musk wrote.

When the cap hit on 14 October, Musk wrote that the US government owns and controls Starshield and that the US military and "ultimately POTUS" decide any limits. US President Donald Trump, who credited Musk with the fix while Kyiv still saw the cap, said on 24 October he had spoken to Musk about Ukraine but gave no details.

Ukrainians note contradiction to reality

Ukrainian presidential adviser on defense technology Serhii Beskrestnov, known by the callsign Flash, wrote:

"It is very strange that Elon Musk doesn't know about the restrictions on Starlink operations in Ukraine."

Since winter 2026, every Starlink terminal over Ukraine, occupied areas included, has been limited to 70–90 km/h (43–56 mph), he said, and over Russia, Starlink does not work. "So we PHYSICALLY CANNOT USE COMMERCIAL STARLINK for deep strikes and mid-range strikes," Beskrestnov wrote. Deep strikes hit targets far inside Russia, mid-range ones targets closer to the front.

Ukrainian activist and drone fundraiser Serhii Sternenko called Musk's claim untrue. He said Ukraine introduced whitelists of terminals in February, and any terminal used on the move had to be listed and connected to Starshield.

"So using civilian Starlink for drone missions was technically impossible. All drone missions that needed satellite communication could be carried out only with Starshield," Sternenko added.

European governments help pay for Ukraine's Starlink service. Germany funds it under a contract that runs until April 2027. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, whose country pays around $50 million a year for the service, said on 23 October: "Mixing business with politics usually ends badly, especially when we talk about Elon Musk."