The European Commission wants member states to assess climate risks, establish national resilience plans and incorporate future warming into public investment decisions. Yet the proposed legislation does not provide the funding needed to implement its ambitions.
The European Commission has proposed a new climate resilience law that would require EU governments to assess their exposure to extreme weather, identify authorities responsible for managing risks and develop national plans to protect infrastructure and economic activity.
Presented on 27 October, the initiative marks a shift in European climate policy towards managing the consequences of changing weather conditions alongside efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the Commission estimates that adapting Europe’s infrastructure and economy to future climatic conditions will require approximately €70 billion annually.
The proposed legislation does not establish a dedicated funding programme of that size.
This creates an immediate question for member states already facing difficult decisions over defence expenditure, energy security and public borrowing.
Brussels wants governments to make climate preparedness a routine part of economic planning, but the financial responsibility for delivering those measures remains largely unresolved.
National governments face new obligations
Under the Commission’s proposed Climate Resilience Law, EU governments would be required to conduct more systematic assessments of climate risks.
The proposal envisages national assessments by 30 June 2029 and strategic resilience plans by 31 December 2030.
These documents would identify threats affecting infrastructure, public services, economic activity and communities.
Governments would also be expected to specify which public authorities are responsible for managing particular risks.
The intention is to prevent situations in which responsibility is divided between institutions without a clear mechanism for action.
The proposed framework would establish a common basis for assessments across the EU, allowing national authorities to compare risks and coordinate responses.
This could be particularly relevant where droughts, floods or disruptions to energy networks affect more than one member state.
The deadlines remain proposals rather than existing legal obligations. The legislation must still be negotiated and adopted by the European Parliament and the Council.
A common warming scenario
One of the most significant elements of the proposal is the introduction of a shared reference trajectory for global warming.
According to the Commission’s announcement, the framework uses a trajectory involving global average warming of approximately 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2030, 2°C by 2050 and 3°C by 2100.
These figures would provide a common planning assumption for evaluating long-term risks.
They are not legally determined temperature outcomes or a guarantee that warming will follow precisely that path.
Instead, they are intended to help authorities examine how buildings, roads, energy facilities and other infrastructure might perform under changing climatic conditions.
For example, a transport project designed to operate for several decades would need to consider possible exposure to extreme heat, flooding or changes in rainfall patterns.
Such assessments could influence engineering requirements, maintenance costs and investment decisions.
The financial problem
The Commission estimates that approximately €70 billion a year will be needed to strengthen Europe’s climate resilience.
That expenditure could include flood protection, water management, urban cooling, agricultural adaptation and improvements to vulnerable infrastructure.
The Commission argues that preventive investment can reduce the economic losses associated with disasters.
According to its figures, climate-related damage across the EU amounted to approximately €200 billion between 2022 and 2025, averaging €50 billion annually.
However, estimating the economic benefits of prevention does not resolve how projects should be financed.
National governments face competing demands on their budgets, while local authorities often bear responsibility for infrastructure without possessing sufficient resources for major investment programmes.
Private financing may contribute in commercially viable areas, but some adaptation projects generate public benefits rather than direct financial returns.
Flood barriers, emergency drainage systems and measures protecting vulnerable communities may therefore require substantial public expenditure.
The proposed legislation establishes a framework for identifying such investments but does not guarantee the resources necessary to undertake them.
Businesses and insurers face changing risks
The Commission also wants climate resilience to become part of business and financial decision-making.
Companies operating transport networks, energy facilities and industrial sites may face increasing exposure to disruption from extreme weather.
Insurers must assess the potential for more frequent or costly claims.
Banks and investors may need to consider whether assets remain commercially viable under changing environmental conditions.
These issues have implications for credit conditions, property values and long-term investment.
However, incorporating climate risks into financial decisions can create difficulties for regions where exposure is high and adaptation costs are substantial.
Insurance premiums may rise, while some properties or economic activities could become increasingly difficult to insure.
The Commission has indicated that further proposals concerning climate insurance and disaster preparedness are being developed.
Their eventual design will influence how financial risks are distributed between households, businesses, insurers and governments.
New European climate information tools
The framework also introduces instruments intended to improve access to scientific information.
The European Climate Viewer will provide mapped information on projected climate hazards.
The Navigator of Climate Resilience Tools will help authorities and businesses identify relevant assessment instruments.
A separate Solutions Explorer will provide examples of adaptation measures developed through European research programmes.
These tools could make climate information more accessible, particularly for smaller administrations without extensive technical resources.
Nevertheless, access to information does not automatically produce the financing or institutional capacity required to implement projects.
A municipality may be able to identify a flood risk more precisely while remaining unable to finance the necessary protective infrastructure.
A new responsibility for Brussels and national capitals
The Commission is expected to present an additional EU strategic plan on climate resilience in 2028.
Separate initiatives are also being prepared on heatwaves, insurance and disaster preparedness.
The resulting framework could substantially influence how public infrastructure and investment projects are planned across Europe.
However, national governments will have to determine how the proposed requirements interact with existing spending obligations and economic priorities.
The European Parliament and Council must also decide whether the legislation should include stronger financial provisions.
The central issue is not whether governments should assess the risks facing infrastructure and public services, but how the measures identified by those assessments will be funded.
Until that question is addressed, the proposed law will establish a more comprehensive system for recognising climate-related risks without guaranteeing that member states possess the resources to reduce them.
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