With less than one week until the midterms, many have projected that Democrats could win in a 2018-style "blue wave," when they won 41 House seats, due to their almost 9-point lead in the generic congressional ballot and a national environment that has tilted drastically in their favor.

That is the wrong term for what is occurring.

Indeed, what we are looking at now is a red retreat, a red collapse, and a potential red defeat, not an overwhelming victory for Democrats or their policies.

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Make no mistake, to the extent that we can determine the eventual outcome, Democrats are almost certain to take the House and have nearly a two-thirds chance to take the Senate.

Democratic candidates are ahead or tied in virtually all of the battleground Senate races – North Carolina, Michigan, and Maine among them – while there are signs of a red retreat in typically safe states like Kansas, Texas, and even possibly Alaska.

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At the same time, early voting numbers favor Democrats, as does the enthusiasm gap, which shows Democrats are more motivated to vote than Republicans.

This has shown up in primaries as well. In the twenty-two states that held competitive primaries this year, seventeen saw increases in Democratic voter turnout. In Texas alone, whereas in 2022, Republicans cast 900,000 more votes than Democrats, this year, Democrats cast 150,000 more – a 1.5 million vote swing.

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Likewise, President Trump’s approval, averaging just 38%, is contributing to growing pessimism. When asked whether the country is on the right track or headed in the wrong direction, 32% now say the country is headed in the right direction, versus 63% who say it is on the wrong track, a net-negative 31 points.

In March 2025, that was just under a net-negative 9 points, underscoring the decline that has occurred and just how much Americans have soured on this administration.

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To be sure, if a red retreat turns into a red collapse, Democrats will win the Senate.

However, the data also make clear that the shift in national sentiment can, in no way, be read as an endorsement of Democrats’ policies, to the extent that they have offered an agenda.

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House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries came closest in the New York Times last weekend, outlining priorities on costs, health care, and checking the administration. But that was more a case against Republican rule than a governing blueprint with broad public support.

Indeed, if Democrats win the Senate, it will primarily be a product of frustration with the administration, inflation, and the war in Iran – not because voters endorse a sweeping Democratic agenda.

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Currently, just under 40% of Americans have a favorable view of the Democratic Party. That is statistically tied with President Trump as well as the Republican Party.

Democrats should therefore resist treating victory as a license to move sharply left. Troy Jackson (Maine), Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan), and James Talarico (Texas) are running in different states and may win for different reasons, but no faction can claim ownership of the national result.

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The test will be whether Democrats turn public anger into a disciplined agenda: lowering costs, restoring stability, checking executive overreach, and attracting support beyond their base. If, instead, they spend two years relitigating ideological fights, their majority will be short-lived.

In fact, in a recent ABC survey, democratic socialism was deeply unpopular, with ratings bordering on Trump’s. Less than 4 in 10 (37%) of Americans had a favorable view, while 59% did not.

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In that same vein, even Democratic voters are not sold. When asked whether they prefer the Democratic Party to move further to the political center or the political left, 48% of Democrats preferred the center, versus 27% who preferred moving to the left, according to New York Times polling.

Among independents, arguably the most critical bloc, the findings are even more stark. More than 7 in 10 (72 percent) of independents want Democrats to move to the center, whereas just 11% want the party to go further left.

Even if Democrats do sweep both chambers of Congress, they will have won on a rejection of Trump and Republican governance – not a blank check to govern from the left. Victory would create an opportunity to provide competent, practical leadership, not a mandate.

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All of this will matter for Democrats because the 2028 elections will unofficially start next Wednesday.

Democrats still lack a single recognized leader and remain divided between the far left and establishment wings, and the midterms will not resolve that fight. Their immediate task is proving they can govern competently, appeal to independents, and improve Americans' daily lives.

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Ultimately, these midterms will be a referendum on President Trump and Republicans. Voters will cast their ballots with gas prices, mortgage rates, and other costs foremost in their minds, not with what it means for 2028.

A red retreat may deliver Democrats power. But if they mistake backlash for ideological conversion, they will squander the opening. Governing from the pragmatic center-left – focused on affordability, stability, and results – is how they rebuild trust.

Carly Cooperman is CEO of Schoen Cooperman Research.

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Watching the broadcast news networks report on campaigns makes you think they’re not creating news as much as they’re trying to make the political weather. On every day, in every way, they labor to place the blackest clouds over the heads of President Donald Trump and the Republicans. Good news is not news.

There is no balance of good and bad. Any hint of neutrality is despised as "normalizing" Trump. Nonpartisanship somehow becomes partisanship. So, resistance against Trump is the norm. A Media Research Center study of the 2024 campaign from July 21 through Oct. 25 found ABC, CBS and NBC evening newscasts punished Trump with 85% negative coverage. Meanwhile, the Democrat nominee, Kamala Harris, received 78% positive coverage. One choice sounded like doom, and the other was painted as hope and joy and "vibes."

With that kind of stark difference in tone, does that sound like news, or campaign advertising?

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Leading the themes two years ago was the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, including Trump’s insistence that the 2020 election was rigged – 47 minutes of coverage. Another 30 minutes was spent amplifying claims that Trump is a "danger to democracy" and/or a "fascist."

It's happening again in 2026. The Media Research Center just found ABC, CBS and NBC evening newscasts from Sept. 28 to Oct. 26 gave Trump and the Republicans almost 57 minutes of negative coverage on the evening news, while the Democrats received almost 19 minutes of negative coverage – a three-to-one ratio. That math could be a little misleading, since the bad scandal news for Democrats, like the immigration agents raiding the home of Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., came wrapped in framing against the Trump administration for doing this in the closing weeks of an election. (These results came before the new eruption over "Decoy Dan" Sullivan in Alaska.)

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It was the same pattern on the formerly taxpayer-funded "PBS News Hour." From Sept. 1 to Sept. 30, the GOP received 94% negative spin, to 6% positive. The Democrats received far more balanced coverage – 53% negative, 47% positive.

No one would say the network news should avoid negative news. Consumers inherently don’t trust happy news any more than they trust gushy positive campaign commercials. Stubbornly high gas prices and a lack of a decisive victory in the Iran war aren’t positive stories. But the overwhelming tone of news coverage should force viewers to understand these broadcast network stars aren’t neutral referees, calling balls and strikes. They’re throwing beanballs at the Republicans.

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Inside the broadcast network news bubble, democracy is mentally associated with the Democrats, autocracy with the Grand Old Party. If the Republicans show party unity, that’s a failing. They are weakening democracy by not weakening Trump. When the Democrats show party unity, that’s not controversial at all.

In fact, the elitist media help enforce party unity. Republicans dissenting from Trump quickly draw positive media attention. "Lifelong Republicans" who endorse Democrats get promoted as the zeitgeist. Democrat dissenters would be ignored and gain no advantage.

The growing radicalism of the Democrat party and its Democratic Socialists of America faction, and what they plan to do if they gain a majority in one or both houses of Congress, have not been serious topics. If the voters are casting ballots for Democrats because of the economy, do the Democrats have an actual solution? The networks weren’t focused on what happens next.

Anyone perusing social media can see the Democrats salivating at more impeachments of Trump, and maybe an impeachment for Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., not to mention some very aggressive hearings into how the Trump family is personally prospering in Trump’s second term.

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During President Joe Biden’s presidency, the broadcast networks obsessed over the House’s Jan. 6 hearings, including incessant live coverage, even in prime time hours. In the last two years, House oversight hearings into subjects like Biden’s use of the autopen and his declining mental fitness, were largely ignored. Republican hearings aren’t news. Democrat hearings will surely be big news – again.

The networks have focused most of their attention on Trump’s rallies, often noting that when he campaigns in red states, it’s a sign that Republicans are anxious about losing in states they should be winning. If former President Barack Obama campaigns in a blue state, like appearing with radical Democrat Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, that’s not painted as desperation.

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PBS reporter Liz Landers oozed on Oct. 26: "Former President Barack Obama brought his own firepower to the trail, rallying Democratic voters in two Midwestern battlegrounds on Saturday, telling crowds in Michigan and Ohio that Trump was responsible for rising costs because of the war with Iran."

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Trump canceling rallies in the closing days of the race is drawing negative coverage. When he rallies, it’s negative. When he moves to "tele-rallies" from Mar-a-Lago for a larger audience, that’s also negative. ABC’s Jonathan Karl warned, "Trump lashed out at a reporter who asked if he was sick of traveling." Most Republicans are sick of the network news manufacturing nightmares for their party on a daily basis.

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McKinney, Texas, is ground zero for the migration of voters from California to Texas over the past several years. On Election Day, it is these newcomers who may well tip the balance not just in the Senate and governor's races.

They may also decide whether the once ruby red Lone Star State will continue to grow bluer.

I met Oren at The Celt on the picture-postcard town square, where we played a friendly game of pool. He moved from California about a year ago "because it’s a lot cheaper to live" but is voting for Democrats because he believes that Texas needs "more social services and public transit" and more support for transgender kids.

When I gently tried to press Oren on the apparent illogic of moving away from a high-tax, big-government blue state for reasons of cost only to vote to make his new home a high-tax, big-government state, he was unmoved, almost arguing that real California progressivism has never been tried.

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It turns out that Oren was not as much of an outlier as I had expected because, not long after, I met Daniel, who works at a local restaurant and moved to McKinney a few years ago with his best friend and girlfriend to start a business. He has also proudly brought his politics with him.

"It’s in the Constitution," Daniel told Fox News Digital. "We can go anywhere we want. It's meant to be that way."

When I asked him if he could understand why so many people born and raised in Texas are worried about transplants changing its politics, he shrugged and said, "Things change."

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In the space of about five hours, I met two more refugees from California prepared to keep voting for Democrats. Like Oren and Daniel, they really did not see any irony in the fact that they may be recreating in Texas exactly the conditions they escaped in California.

The natives, however, do see the problem with the Californication of Texas. Terry, a longtime local in her 60s, told me, "I love to see the growth, and there’s a lot of it, but if they bring Democratic politics with them, then we stand to lose the whole thing bringing people here."

Clint, who was in town from his home just on the other side of the Oklahoma border, is worried not just about Texas turning blue through domestic migration, but even about the Sooner State eventually turning blue.

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"I cannot comprehend why someone would move from a state because there’s high taxes and then come down here and vote for high taxes. I just can’t comprehend it," Clint told Fox News Digital. "And I’ve asked them to explain it to me, but they just cuss me out."

Thankfully, nobody cussed out this columnist for asking, but Clint is correct that the liberal transplants see no problem with transforming the red states they arrive in into blue states, and it's not just Texas.

Arizona and even Montana have seen influxes of liberal California voters. West Virginians have similar fears regarding their neighbors to the south in Northern Virginia, who are also attracted by the low taxes and cost of living.

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In Texas, there is a kind of double-pincer political invasion because, along with the Cali converts, unchecked immigration — illegal and otherwise — over decades has also pushed the needle left in the state. This is, in a nutshell, the new Democratic Party coalition: wealthy, college-educated Whites and immigrants.

The bottom line for Republicans — not just in Texas but in many red states — is that Americans are moving at stunning rates to cheaper states, which almost always means Republican states. The good news is that red states stand to gain in the Electoral College and in Congress after the next census, but that won’t matter if Democrats take them over.

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Between now and then, and especially on Tuesday, "Don’t you turn my red state blue" has to be the mantra of the GOP. If Texas falls this time, then anywhere can, and that is exactly what the Democrats moving to red states are hoping for and creating.