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French centrists divided as Le Pen and Melenchon gain in polls

Infighting has broken out among centrist candidates for France’s presidential race, splitting the mainstream vote and making a runoff between far-right Marine Le Pen and hard-left Jean-Luc Melenchon more likely.

Opinion polls before next April’s presidential election show Le Pen is nearly certain to qualify for a second-round runoff in May and that Melenchon is consistently nudging ahead of mainstream candidates.

Centre-right Edouard Philippe, President Emmanuel Macron’s former prime minister, has so far been the centre’s torchbearer.

Philippe struggles to connect with voters

But Philippe’s lacklustre campaign, voter weariness near the end of Macron’s two terms, an explosive social and security context and the challenges he faces from within his own camp have hurt his polling, people in Macron’s camp and political analysts say.

“There’s panic on board because there was no scenario planned for this. They hadn’t anticipated the cataclysm under way,” said Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet, a political communications specialist at Sciences Po.

Philippe has also faced criticism over several awkward interventions — including suggesting in a podcast that ideally a newly elected president should have three months to rest before taking office — and political analysts say he is struggling to connect with voters at a time of rising political tensions.

“The terrible thing is that he isn’t cutting through,” Moreau-Chevrolet told Reuters. “They didn’t understand that you have to campaign. There’s a kind of dilettantism.”

Rivalry between former prime ministers intensifies

The anxiety has sharpened tensions between Philippe and his main rival, Gabriel Attal, another former prime minister. They are locked in a battle over who should step aside for the centrist ticket.

Philippe fell to 15% support in an IFOP-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro newspaper, a six-point drop since September. That is below the 16.5% for Melenchon, who would have enough to qualify for a runoff against Le Pen.

Attal stood at 13%, behind Melenchon and Raphael Glucksmann, a mainstream centre-left candidate.

Under pressure from lawmakers in his camp to abandon his presidential ambitions and rally to Philippe, Attal irritated many Macron allies this week by reviving the idea of a broad centrist primary, a proposal critics say risks fuelling division at a time when moderates can least afford it.

Still, Attal has leverage. As leader of Macron’s Renaissance party, he controls the purse strings of the party machine.

Polls expose divisions within French centre

“It’s catastrophic,” said Jean-Baptiste Moreau, a former lawmaker from Macron’s camp.

“They are attacking one another in the media and they are both collapsing in the polls. We’re heading straight towards an RN-LFI second round,” he said of Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) and Melenchon’s France Unbowed (LFI). “In the current state of opinion, I don’t see how we avoid it.”

The fragmentation stretches beyond the Philippe-Attal feud.

On the centre-left, Glucksmann has gained ground after winning the Socialist primary. On the right, Bruno Retailleau, a former interior minister, and David Lisnard, the free-market mayor of Cannes, are targeting the same moderate electorate.

Philippe’s supporters say reports of his demise are premature. Laurent Marcangeli, a member of Philippe’s party Horizons, acknowledged recent polling setbacks but said the former prime minister remained the only centrist candidate with a realistic path to the runoff.

“He’s still in the race for the second round and to prevent a Le Pen-Melenchon duel,” said Marcangeli, adding that in some polls Attal scored as low as single digits.

Moderates face pressure to unite

Some Macron allies, however, are openly questioning whether either man should carry on. They say any association with Macron, who is finishing his second term at record-low popularity, will weigh on a centrist candidate.

“The two of them are collapsing,” said Perrine Goulet, a lawmaker from Macron ally MoDem. “Any candidate who has been in a Macron government is going to be struggling.”

With Le Pen and Melenchon consolidating support at opposite ends of the spectrum, she said moderates needed to put aside personal ambitions and rally behind a single contender able to unite supporters of Glucksmann through to Retailleau.

“We’re calling on everyone to put their egos aside and find the best candidate,” Goulet said.

“If we keep Glucksmann on one side, Retailleau on the other, Edouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, we’ll end up with an LFI-RN second round. The danger is simply too great.”

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‘Marco Tulio Cicerón’: talento, ambición y poder

“¿Qué dirá la historia de mí dentro de 600 años? Yo la considero a ella mucho más que los rumores de los actuales". La pregunta de Cicerón (Arpino, 106-Formias, 43 a.C.), dirigida a su estimado amigo Ático, revela una obsesión que lo torturó toda su vida: la posteridad. Dos mil años después sabemos que la vanidad quedó compensada con creces por su genialidad; y aunque sea verdad que la figura de Cicerón nos resulta poco simpática, y buena prueba de ello es que pocos personajes de la Antigüedad han sido tan denostados, no es menos cierto tampoco que la admiración que su prosa ha generado a lo largo de los siglos prueba que su talento estuvo muy por encima de su discutible integridad como político, como persona y como intelectual. El hallarnos frente a un animal político como Cicerón y ante una de las épocas más fascinantes de la historia universal, la de la crisis y final de la República romana, convierte en tentador y temerario a la par el poder contar una vida sobre la que poseemos tantos datos y tan profundamente parciales porque buena parte de lo que sabemos de Cicerón procede del egocéntrico cálamo del propio Cicerón. Francisco Pina Polo, insigne ciceroniano por vocación, que no por convicción, acepta el reto de enfrentarse a la escritura de otra biografía de Cicerón demostrando que la Fortuna siempre premia a los audaces.

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Marco Tulio Cicerón

Francisco Pina Polo Ariel, 2026 560 páginas. 22,90 euros

© Andrea Izzotti (Alamy / CORDON PRESS) (EL PAÍS)

Una estatua de Cicerón en Roma.
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Ukraine war briefing: Outrage in Europe after Russian drone kills 14 on rail platform in Dnipro

EU council president calls deadly strike ‘cruel and devastating’; fragile ceasefire holds in Oleshky. What we know on day 1,710

European leaders have reacted with outrage to a deadly attack by a Russian drone that slammed into a busy railway platform in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday, as Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned Ukraine had intelligence about more ballistic missile strikes to come. French President Emmanuel Macron stressed the need for “far more than a localised ceasefire”, referencing the current truce in the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky. The EU council president, António Costa, who described the Dnipro attacks as “cruel and devastating”, called for greater pressure on Russia after the latest strikes against civilians. “The EU will continue to increase the pressure on Russia and to support Ukraine until a just and lasting peace is achieved,” he added. “We call on all our international partners to do the same.”

Later on Thursday, Russian forces ⁠launched ⁠an attack ​on the ⁠Ukrainian capital ⁠Kyiv ​with ‌ballistic ‌missiles, Mayor Vitali Klitschko ‌said on Telegram, hitting warehouses and ‌triggering a fire. Emergency services were headed to ​the scene on the east side ⁠of the Dnipro ​River, he said.

Describing the Dnipro train station attack – which killed at least 14 people and injured another 14 – as “horrific”, the president of Ukraine insisted “sanctions against Moscow and its war machine must not be eased for as long as this Russian war continues”. Zelenskyy warned also that Ukraine had intelligence about preparations by the Russians of new ballistic missile strikes. “We need the means to take out all this Russian ‌evil. We are expecting relevant decisions,” he said. Another attack on Dnipro hit a student dormitory, setting it ablaze, regional governor Oleksandr Hanzha said, adding the assaults had cut power to 350,000 households.

The strikes came as Ukraine and Russia kept to a fragile local ceasefire in the ravaged city of Oleshky and prepared to send a humanitarian convoy to the southern Ukrainian city under Russian occupation since 2022 and where residents have faced months of food, water and medicine shortages. Russia’s human ‌rights commissioner Yana Lantratova ‌said on Friday that local residents had until 2 pm local time (1100 ​GMT) on 30 October to evacuate, Russian news agency Interfax reported. Two ​people, ​including one ​sapper, were killed ​while ‌de-mining in ​Oleshky, ​she said.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military ⁠has paused its strikes on Russian oil refineries after pressure from US President Donald Trump, ⁠according to a report in the Wall Street ⁠Journal ​on Thursday, citing people with knowledge of the operations. Ukrainian units carrying out ⁠long-range strikes were told in mid-October that the campaign against refineries was effectively on hold once ⁠missions already in motion were completed, the Journal reported. The ​unofficial pause is expected ‌to last until ‌after the US midterm elections and potentially deeper into ‌November, the newspaper said.

After the Dnipro attack, Zelenskyy renewed his criticism of a deal struck between Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to ease some US sanctions on Russia allowing Moscow to release diesel on to global markets. “How many such terrorist strikes has Russia carried out against our people since sanctions were lifted on some Russian oligarchs and the energy sector, instead of de-escalating?” he asked.

Late on Thursday, Putin said he supported any steps aimed at restoring relations with ⁠European countries, saying the outbreak of any conflict would leave ⁠a situation with ⁠no ​winners. Commenting on his phone call this week with the leaders of Norway and Finland, Putin told reporters after ‌hosting a summit with African ‌leaders: “And if anyone wants it, let them prepare, but right now they have not achieved their goal – to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. And if things go too far, there will be no winners at all. .”

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© Photograph: Ukrainian Emergency Service/AP

© Photograph: Ukrainian Emergency Service/AP

© Photograph: Ukrainian Emergency Service/AP

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‘Who Will Bomb Me Next?’: Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank on Israel’s Election

As Netanyahu's hold on power hangs in the balance, there is a mixture of hope and skepticism among Palestinians. 'This is a time for caution, not celebration.' In the past, all Israeli leaders turned out to be essentially the same

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President Díaz-Canel Supports Cuba’s Response to U.S. Provocations at the UN

On Wednesday, President Miguel Díaz-Canel praised the actions of the Cuban delegation at the United Nations during the annual debate on the resolution calling for an end to the economic, commercial, and financial blockade imposed by the United States against Cuba. The president affirmed that the island will not back down in the face of Yankee pressure and dictates.

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UN General Assembly Approves Cuba’s Resolution Against U.S. Blockade

In messages posted on the social media platform X, the Cuban leader acknowledged the work of Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez, Ambassador Ernesto Soberón, and the rest of the Cuban delegation, following an incident that took place during a session of the UN General Assembly.

“Today at the UN, the international community’s overwhelming support for Cuba was on display, as they condemned the blockade and the U.S. government’s policy of maximum suffocation. Most of the speakers were clear in their denunciation,” the Cuban president wrote.

These remarks followed an intervention by Bruno Rodríguez, who interrupted U.S. representative Mike Waltz as he was blatantly presenting a series of slanders, distortions, and lies against Cuba.

“You are lying,” Rodríguez stated, while requesting that the president of the General Assembly call the U.S. representative to order.

The Cuban Foreign Minister also denounced pressure exerted by Washington on UN member states and rejected what he described as insults to the dignity of the Cuban people and the international organization itself.

El pretexto más empleado y manipulado por el gobierno de Estados Unidos para tratar de justificar su actuación es presentar a Cuba como una supuesta amenaza para la superpotencia nuclear o, incluso, para el hemisferio. Se sabe que ningún gobierno aquí representado admite o acepta… pic.twitter.com/9ADzwpPsXS

— Bruno Rodríguez P (@BrunoRguezP) October 28, 2026

The text reads, “The most commonly used and manipulated pretext by the United States government to try to justify its actions is to present Cuba as an alleged threat to the nuclear superpower or even to the hemisphere. It is known that no government represented here admits or accepts such a crude fallacy. They lack arguments.”

Díaz-Canel maintained that this international body serves as a space for sovereign equality among states, and he asserted that Cuba will defend the rights granted to it by the United Nations Charter and its regulations, as well as the dignity of its people and its heroes. “Cuba will not back down, and certainly not in the face of Yankee pressures and orders,” emphasized the head of state, who described the U.S. stance as one of imperial arrogance and overbearing conduct.

The Cuban delegation’s protest was voiced at the start of the debate on the resolution titled “Necessity of ending the economic, commercial and financial embargo imposed by the United States of America against Cuba”—an initiative that has garnered broad support in the General Assembly for over three decades.

Cuba denounced a vile campaign of diplomatic pressure aimed at influencing the delegations present, with the goal of eroding support for the Cuban resolution. Nevertheless, the world once again spoke out—by an overwhelming majority—against the embargo, even in the face of pressure and blackmail from the United States intended to alter the outcome.

Díaz-Canel further noted that the U.S. representative—visibly isolated—offered no explanation for the energy blockade imposed on Cuba, nor for the intensified extraterritorial reach of the embargo.

In their remarks, Cuban authorities presented verifiable data demonstrating that the tightening of the embargo—particularly since 2025—has caused severe economic and social hardship on the island. This confirms that the U.S. policy amounts to collective punishment of the population; the authorities warned that the international community must not become complicit in such measures.

“Because we believe in the truth and in global solidarity, we know that the U.S. embargo against Cuba and the energy blockade will be condemned once again in the General Assembly,” Díaz-Canel stated on X.

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Israel desplaza a casi 5.000 palestinos tras intensificar asedio a Hebrón

Las fuerzas de ocupación imponen un bloqueo militar en Hebrón que deja casi 5.000 palestinos desplazados y familias atrapadas, mientras la ONU advierte sobre el riesgo de limpieza étnica y castigo colectivo en Cisjordania.
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Ukraine says it has finished its part of FREYJA, Europe’s joint anti-ballistic project. Partners’ work is still underway

ukraine advertise its new ballistic missiles until factories can mass-produce ex-security officer says · post test launch fp-7 missile prototype fire point news ukrainian reports

Ukraine has finished its share of FREYJA, a joint European project to build a system against ballistic missiles, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told journalists on 17 October, Ukrinform reported. He added that Kyiv wants to test the first system as soon as possible.

Ukraine still relies on US-made Patriot interceptors to stop Russian ballistic missiles. Zelenskyy told ABC News on 23 October that Ukraine had received only 24 of them from the US in three months, while it needs 350 a month on average. FREYJA can not close that gap soon, because the system is still in development.

Ukraine’s missile and launcher, partners’ radars and sensors

Zelenskyy said the partners’ share of the work, with 10 countries taking part, is still underway. He also said he had discussed the project with French President Emmanuel Macron, and he named Norway as a key partner.

Fire Point concept graphic showing the FP-7.x interceptor missile beside a table of proposed specifications.
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Ukraine’s missile, Europe’s sensors—FREYJA enters active development on an early-2027 clock

Zelenskyy did not say what the partners still have to deliver. In August, he said Ukraine is capable of making the missile and launcher, while partners would supply critical components such as radars and sensors.

One part not made in Ukraine

In May, Fire Point co-founder and chief designer Denys Shtilerman said all components of the FP-7.x interceptor are made in Ukraine except one. “As for that one part we don’t manufacture in Ukraine, we’ve contracted a certain quantity of it. We already have it,” he said, but did not name the part.

In June, however, Shtilerman told the Financial Times that mass production depended on an infrared seeker Fire Point hoped to get from Germany’s Diehl Defence. Neither statement says whether the seeker is that one part.

Fire Point co-founder Iryna Terekh said in September that FREYJA was going through testing and technical integration in combat conditions in Ukraine. The company plans its first intercept of a ballistic target by mid-2027.

The official timeline has since moved closer. On 21 October, Zelenskyy wrote that officials had identified where to speed up so FREYJA reaches testing by the end of this year. A test is still a step short of an intercept.

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French student protests set to continue as Macron and Lecornu fail to meet demands

France is gearing up for another round of anti-austerity mobilizations on Saturday, October 31. As the weekend approaches, President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu have still not substantially addressed the protest demands tabled by the student movement. 

For the past weeks, students and their organizations have taken to the streets in the hundreds of thousands, denouncing the state of the education sector, including overcrowded classrooms, overworked teachers, and dilapidated buildings. Authorities have responded with a full-blown crackdown – police violence, curfews, and protest bans – while avoiding meaningful conversation about the protests’ causes.

“The authorities’ top priority is to strip the movement of the political meaning it carries: the condemnation of the neoliberal policy that has ruined the French education system,” presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon pointed out in a recent interview. “Young people are pulling at the thread of a larger unraveling.”

Government tried to break student unity

Lecornu and his ministers called a meeting with high school and university student groups on Monday, announcing the government was ready to open dialogue on their demands. Yet even before the meetings kicked off, a list of government-proposed measures published by the media only fueled frustration. 

These measures included a transparency-oriented reform of the higher education recruitment platform Parcoursup, the creation of 15,000 additional higher education placements, low-interest loans to regional authorities for renovating school infrastructure, and the indexation of grants to inflation.

Read more: Students in France are fighting for stronger public education

Students criticized the officials for attempting to set a negotiation agenda before even speaking to them. They also called them out for trying to break their unity by organizing separate meetings with different groups instead of a joint discussion. In this process, they emphasized, crucial voices were left out. 

Among others, the Fédération Lycéenne des Quartiers (FLQ), representing high school students from working-class neighborhoods – the demographic group from which the protest wave originated – was not invited to meet Lecornu. Students interpreted this as yet another sign of the government’s failure to grasp what is at stake. “They see us first and foremost as ‘young people from the banlieues,’ rather than young people who, like everyone else, want to make their voices heard,” FLQ’s Soumaya Sarré told Mediapart. 

“Crumbs” instead of solutions

The way meetings were set up was not the only problem. Following the publication of the government’s proposals, the university students’ association Union Étudiante described them as “crumbs” and detailed how they fail to address the movement’s concerns. 

“There are not 15,000 places missing but at least 250,000,” the organization warned. “Where are those 250,000 places needed for young people who have been denied their right to education because of classist and racist selection?” 

Union Étudiante similarly criticized the lack of clarity surrounding proposed financing for infrastructure investment, employment plans, and the promise to “reform” rather than abolish Parcoursup. 

Roughly 800,000 people participated in nationwide protests on October 24. Source: Union Étudiante/X

This last demand has become emblematic for the student movement over the past weeks of protest. Young people on the streets have repeatedly explained how the tool allows university selection to maintain racist and classist tones – all while pushing tens of thousands of students without placements toward the private sector. 

“We are not asking for a reform that offers more transparency or clarity; we already know how the selection process works, and it will remain unjust even if the selection criteria are made public,” Union Étudiante wrote. “The problem is selection itself. Why should young people be denied the right to pursue higher education? We must abolish all forms of selection while keeping a centralized platform for enrolling in academic programs.” 

Mobilizations against racism and the far right

Trade unions and progressive organizations continue to support the students ahead of Saturday’s demonstrations, while building toward a general strike on November 5. The networks remain connected over shared austerity-related problems, linking budget cuts in public services, attacks on pensions, and precarious working conditions. 

In between regular nationwide mobilizations, the past few days have also seen significant protests against racism and the far right. After a racist attack in the Trappes working-class suburb of Paris last Friday – where one person was killed and five, including a 12-year-old, were seriously injured – calls are circulating for solidarity assemblies. 

“This crime did not come out of nowhere,” wrote Saint-Denis mayor Bally Bagayoko. “For years, the perpetrator blamed ‘Black people and Arabs’ for all his misfortunes.”

“He claimed he wanted to avenge a looting that never actually happened – a piece of false information broadcast on television,” he added.

“This hatred has its architects: those who, hour after hour on the airwaves, designate our neighborhoods as the problem and ‘the other’ as a threat.”

Read more: Students across the US South demand justice for Nolan Wells

The far-right National Rally – whose program ahead of the 2027 presidential election endorses exactly this vision of “the other” – held its congress in Orléans over the October 24-25 weekend. Approximately 26,000 people joined a local march against the policies endorsed by the party, signaling continuous resistance in the lead-up to the April 2027 presidential election.

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The Guardian view on the far right’s plans for Brussels: doing the work of Xi, Putin and Trump | Editorial

If ever enacted, proposals by Marine Le Pen and the AfD leader, Alice Weidel, to hollow out EU institutions would be a continental act of self-harm

Following the Brexit referendum in 2016, Marine Le Pen was in a predictably celebratory mood. Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, she told one interviewer, was the first breach in the “Brussels Wall”. Ms Le Pen’s Front National party was at that point committed to taking France down the same path, given the chance. But as the UK’s self-inflicted economic wounds became a cautionary tale for the rest of Europe, the notion of Frexit was put on ice.

Instead, Ms Le Pen now hopes to lead far-right allies in hollowing out the EU from within. This month, both she and the leader of Alternative für Deutschland, Alice Weidel, outlined their visions of a “Europe of nations” in which EU institutions would be stripped of both cash and power. Ms Weidel’s “new deal for Europe” would abolish elections to the European parliament, and seek German opt-outs in areas such as migration, defence and common borrowing. Ms Le Pen’s party, now called National Rally, proposes slashing French contributions to the EU budget by 60% over a five-year presidential term, and ending the role of Brussels in proposing common policies for the 27 member states.

Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.

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© Photograph: Christophe Petit-Tesson/EPA

© Photograph: Christophe Petit-Tesson/EPA

© Photograph: Christophe Petit-Tesson/EPA

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‘There are no dreams here’: How Israel’s outgoing gov’t remade the West Bank

Expanded land seizures, military restrictions, mass displacement, and over 100 new Jewish settlements have transformed an already fragmented territory — and the very fabric of Palestinian life.

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Netanyahu, Katz Blocked IDF Plan to End Hebron Raids, Allow Locals to Return

IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir said that the West Bank operation had completed its goals, but the prime minister and defense minister refused to allow the more than 2,000 displaced residents to return to their homes

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