The UN World Meteorological Organization warned Wednesday that the current El Niño episode could push Pacific sea surface temperatures to 3.8 degrees Celsius above the average between November 2026 and January 2027, levels its top official called unprecedented in four decades of monitoring.
The alert came during a joint press conference in which the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Celeste Saulo acknowledged that the phenomenon now sits “literally outside the scales of monitoring that we have used over the past four decades.”
Her assessment placed the coming months among the most severe climate events recorded since such tracking began.
Saulo and UN humanitarian coordinator Tom Fletcher issued an urgent call for the international community to prepare in advance for the consequences they expect.
Fletcher put the human cost in stark terms. The phenomenon “will shake Latin America, eastern and southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific with extreme heat, droughts and floods,” he warned, and could push food insecurity to affect as many as 50 million people worldwide.
The warning singled out regions already struggling with fragile agricultural systems and limited infrastructure, where a single failed harvest can tip entire communities into crisis.
El Niño is set to hit fragile communities hard.@UNOCHA and @WMO are sounding the alarm, appealing for immediate assistance to support communities already affected by what has been described as the strongest El Niño on record. https://t.co/LDrygGkPPwpic.twitter.com/H1XcVA3AR7
The temperature projection of 3.8 degrees above the long-term average would place this El Niño beyond the upper bands of the monitoring framework built over forty years. Saulo noted that extreme weather events are already being recorded and will tend to multiply as the phenomenon gains intensity. She stressed, however, that the crisis “does not have to inevitably trigger a humanitarian disaster,” a message both officials repeated throughout their appearance.
To front-load the response, Fletcher announced the allocation of 50 million dollars from the UN emergency fund. The money will assist 11 of the most vulnerable countries as a priority, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan. The list reflects the broad geographic reach of the expected impacts, spanning the Horn of Africa, the Sahel and Central America.
Both representatives insisted that a window of opportunity remains open. Extreme conditions “do not have to translate into humanitarian emergencies or fatalities” if precautions are taken in time, they argued, framing preparedness as the difference between a difficult season and a catastrophic one.
A Narrow Action Window
Saulo and Fletcher directed their appeal beyond governments. WMO and the humanitarian office urged development banks and international financial institutions to release funds in a coordinated manner before the worst damage occurs. The underlying premise is simple, El Niño cannot be stopped, but its worst human impacts can be mitigated and prevented.
Latin America appears prominently in the forecast. Central America has already been placed on maximum alert over drought conditions linked to the so-called Super El Niño, and the new warning extends that concern across the region. Africa faces the mirror problem in several zones, with eastern and southern areas bracing for a combination of heat, drought and flood depending on local geography.
WMO’s warnings marks a departure from the cautious phrasing typical of international agencies. Describing the phenomenon as off the scale is not a rhetorical flourish but a technical judgment, one intended to shake loose the funding and coordination that slow-moving bureaucracies often withhold until emergencies are already visible. For Saulo and Fletcher, the next three months represent the period when that response must be assembled, not the period when it can still be debated.
Hurricanes in the North Atlantic have largely disappeared this year, leaving bitterly disappointed scientists without fuel for their climate alarm and having to admit the role of natural variation, says Chris Morrison.
As glaciers melt and permafrost thaws, Longyearbyen, on the remote Arctic islands of Svalbard, faces climate-induced problems from tap water to housebuilding to landslides
On a rugged mountain plateau of snow-dusted rocks, in the remote archipelago of Svalbard, a glaciologist, Andy Hodson, points out the “ears” of ice, white against the rock, that gave Foxfonna glacier its name, after the arctic fox.
The small glacier, on a mountain 8 miles (15km) outside the Norwegian village of Longyearbyen, is a popular summer hike for tourists who come here seeking the Arctic experience.
Helicopters rescued people stranded on rooftops as torrential rain swept across eastern Spain on Monday. Floods and storms killed at least four people, and shelter-in-place orders remained in force for more than 80,000 people. The downpour from Storm Adam cut off several towns along the Mediterranean coast as rivers overflowed their banks and streets turned into rivers. More than 2,000 people were evacuated, mainly in Oliva, and authorities carried out nearly 496 rescues in Valencia and Alicante, the Civil Guard police said
At least three people have died in severe flooding across eastern Spain after Storm Adam brought extraordinary rainfall to the Mediterranean coast, forcing thousands from their homes and leaving residents stranded on rooftops as emergency services struggled to reach inundated communities.
The worst flooding struck parts of Valencia and Alicante, where swollen rivers overwhelmed roads, flooded residential districts and disrupted transport. Authorities ordered residents of 145 municipalities to remain indoors as rescue operations continued on Monday, 19th October.
The disaster has revived memories of the October 2024 floods, which killed more than 230 people in the Valencia region and prompted widespread criticism of the authorities’ emergency warnings and response.
Thousands evacuated as rivers burst their banks
The coastal town of Oliva, in Valencia province, was among the worst affected areas. Approximately 2,000 people were evacuated from seven campsites as floodwaters spread through low-lying neighbourhoods, while residents elsewhere sought refuge on upper floors and rooftops.
According to reports from the Spanish news agency EFE, emergency crews were reinforced by Spain’s Military Emergencies Unit, whose personnel were deployed from their base at Bétera to assist local firefighters and rescue teams.
Helicopters were used to reach people trapped by the rising water. Roads became impassable, vehicles were swept away and several settlements were temporarily isolated as streams and drainage channels overflowed.
The scale of the rainfall was exceptional even for a region accustomed to intense autumn storms. In parts of Valencia and Alicante, precipitation approached 700 litres per square metre over approximately 48 hours, equivalent to 700 millimetres of rain.
Pego, in neighbouring Alicante province, recorded more than 600 millimetres within approximately 36 hours, placing considerable pressure on local waterways and drainage infrastructure.
Fatalities and emergency restrictions
Two women died during the weekend, including one swept away by floodwaters near Cabrera de Mar, north of Barcelona, and another whose body was recovered near Sagunto, in Valencia.
A third woman was found dead inside a flooded property in Oliva during rescue operations on Monday. Separately, a 64-year-old man died after suffering a heart attack at a flooded campsite in the same town, according to EFE’s account of the incident.
The regional authorities activated level-two emergency arrangements, enabling additional resources to be mobilised as local services confronted the consequences of prolonged rainfall.
At the height of the emergency, stay-at-home restrictions covered approximately 800,000 people. These measures were subsequently eased in many municipalities, although restrictions remained in force in particularly exposed districts.
Schools were closed in affected areas, roads were blocked and rail services disrupted. The situation remained particularly difficult where floodwaters had entered homes, commercial premises and tourist accommodation.
Renewed examination of emergency preparedness
Storm Adam has inevitably drawn comparisons with the disaster of October 2024, when catastrophic flooding in eastern Spain exposed serious weaknesses in emergency communication, evacuation procedures and coordination between public authorities.
That earlier disaster generated disputes over responsibility between regional and national institutions, particularly concerning the timing of warnings and the deployment of rescue resources.
The latest flooding places those questions back on the political agenda. Spain’s decentralised administrative structure gives regional governments substantial responsibility for civil protection, while the central government can provide military assistance and additional emergency resources.
The deployment of the Military Emergencies Unit demonstrates how rapidly local incidents can require national intervention when extreme rainfall affects several municipalities simultaneously.
The challenge extends beyond issuing weather warnings. Authorities must determine whether warnings reach vulnerable residents, whether evacuation routes remain accessible and whether emergency personnel can intervene before flooding becomes dangerous.
In communities close to rivers, floodplains and coastal drainage systems, these decisions become particularly consequential when rainfall accumulates over a short period.
European implications of repeated flooding
The disaster also raises questions about infrastructure investment and the application of European flood-risk legislation.
Under the EU’s Floods Directive, Member States are required to assess flood risks, prepare hazard maps and develop management plans designed to reduce the consequences for human health, economic activity and the environment.
Those obligations require national and regional authorities to identify vulnerable areas and consider preventive measures, including land-use planning, flood defences and emergency preparedness.
Extreme rainfall does not produce the same consequences everywhere. The effects depend partly on local geography, drainage capacity, urban development and the condition of waterways.
Meteorological warnings had also extended towards Catalonia as the weather system moved northwards, creating additional concern in areas where saturated ground could increase the risk of further flooding.
For the affected municipalities, the immediate priorities remain the completion of rescue operations, restoration of essential services and assessment of damage to homes, roads and businesses.
The longer-term examination will concern whether the emergency arrangements and infrastructure improvements undertaken since the 2024 disaster were sufficient to reduce the consequences of another major autumn storm.
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The eye of Hurricane Simon was just off the Pacific coast of Mexico early Sunday and was expected to move inland later in the day as an extremely powerful storm.
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Eight million properties in Britain are at risk of flooding by mid-century due to climate change, the Environment Agency has claimed. That's a quarter of the total. It's completely preposterous, says Paul Homewood.
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