TEL AVIV, Israel — Updated Israeli exit polls early Wednesday showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gaining ground against his political rivals but still falling short of a parliamentary majority, leaving the country facing a possible political deadlock despite a combined majority of seats projected for parties outside his governing bloc.

An updated Channel 12 exit poll at 3:30 a.m. (Israel time) projected 53 seats for Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc, compared with 49 for the main opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot and another 19 for Arab parties. Together, the opposition and Arab factions would hold 68 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, although they remain divided over forming a government together.

Netanyahu struck a defiant tone in his first election-night speech at Likud headquarters in Jerusalem, declaring that his party had emerged as the largest in Israel and calling for the formation of a strong right-wing government.

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"We are still waiting for the actual results, which we will receive over the next day or two," Netanyahu told supporters. "Two things have become clear. The first is unequivocal: Likud is the largest party in Israel."

"We must establish a strong national right-wing government," he added, warning against a government dependent on Arab parties, which he accused of opposing Israel's existence.

His remarks came hours after Eisenkot took the stage at his campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv, where supporters celebrated earlier projections showing the opposition ahead. Eisenkot called on Netanyahu to accept the results and step aside, but the updated numbers underscored how uncertain the race remains.
Netanyahu also said Israel faced a "once-in-a-lifetime historic opportunity" with Trump to eliminate the existential threat from Iran.

The competing speeches highlighted the central question emerging from the election: Who will be given the first opportunity to form a government?
If Eisenkot can secure recommendations from at least 61 lawmakers, potentially including Arab parties, he could receive the first mandate despite Netanyahu's Likud emerging as the largest individual party. But that would not guarantee he could assemble a governing coalition.
For Netanyahu, the election remains a waiting game. Even without a majority, he could still be tasked with forming a government — or get another opportunity if Eisenkot's efforts fail — leaving Israel facing weeks of political negotiations.

Israelis turned out in exceptionally high numbers Tuesday for the country’s first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas massacre, with initial exit polls showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud emerging as the largest party but his governing coalition falling short of a parliamentary majority, potentially opening the door to a change in leadership.
 

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The results are preliminary projections, not an official vote count, and could change as ballots are tallied in the coming days.

The election followed an extraordinary day at polling stations across Israel, with long lines and voter participation reaching levels not seen in decades.

Israeli voter turnout surged to a historic high, with 77.7% of eligible voters casting their ballots by the time the polls closed, according to Israel's Central Elections Committee. The figure marked the highest turnout recorded since 1999, underscoring the intensity of the country's national election.

The unusually high participation prompted election officials to streamline voting procedures and assure voters that anyone arriving at a polling station before the 10 p.m. deadline would be allowed to cast a ballot.

The vote was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership following three years of war and continuing questions about responsibility for the security failures that allowed Hamas terrorists to kill approximately 1,200 people and abduct 251 others on Oct. 7, 2023.

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Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, campaigned on his record of confronting Iran and its regional proxies, highlighting Israel's military achievements and his relationship with President Donald Trump. His opponents accused him of failing to accept responsibility for the October 7 security failures and opposed his government's approach to investigating the failures that preceded the massacre.

A last-minute battle for every vote

Throughout the final hours of the campaign, Netanyahu, Eisenkot, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and other party leaders mounted an intensive effort to mobilize supporters and win over undecided voters.

Netanyahu's Likud party prepared hundreds of targeted campaign videos and social media messages, making digital outreach a central part of its last-minute election strategy.

Eisenkot's campaign pushed supporters to rally behind Yashar as the leading alternative to Likud, while Bennett traveled between cities and engaged voters directly and through WhatsApp conversations.

The key question now is which candidate can secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers when President Isaac Herzog consults with the newly elected parliamentary factions. If Eisenkot can obtain those recommendations, including from Arab parties, he would have a strong claim to receive the first opportunity to form a government, even though Netanyahu’s Likud is projected to remain the largest individual party. Crucially, Arab parties could recommend Eisenkot without formally joining his governing coalition. However, the final decision rests with Herzog, who is tasked with selecting the lawmaker he believes has the best chance of forming a government. Securing the first mandate would not guarantee Eisenkot could assemble a governing majority, leaving the possibility of another political deadlock.

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The campaign's closing hours also featured personal appeals, phone calls to undecided voters and aggressive turnout operations across the political spectrum.

The final days were particularly important because a relatively small share of voters remained undecided about which party to support.

A Times of Israel poll published five days before the election found that 87% of respondents had already made their final choice, while 2.4% remained undecided between the pro and anti-Netanyahu political blocs.

Other surveys suggested a larger pool of undecided voters, although many were choosing between parties within the same political camp rather than switching sides.

That distinction could prove decisive in Israel's parliamentary system, where political parties need at least 3.25% of valid votes to enter the 120-seat Knesset.

Even a slight change in the vote share of smaller parties could shift several parliamentary seats and determine whether either camp has a realistic path to power.

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What happens next?

Despite the exit poll projections, the identity of Israel's next prime minister may remain uncertain for weeks.

Unlike in the United States, Israelis vote for political parties rather than directly electing their head of government.

The 120 seats in parliament are allocated proportionally, and parties must secure at least 3.25% of valid votes to win representation.

Once the final results are certified, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult with the newly elected political factions and select the lawmaker he believes has the strongest chance of forming a government.

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That candidate will have 28 days to negotiate a governing coalition, with the possibility of a 14-day extension.

Official results are scheduled to be published by Nov. 4. Until a new government takes office, Netanyahu's outgoing government will remain in power.

TEL AVIV, ISRAEL — Campaign banners bearing the faces of Israel's political leaders cover buildings and roadsides, while in homes, coffee shops and family gatherings, the same question dominates conversations: Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remain in power?

With Israelis heading to the polls Tuesday, the country is bracing for a closely contested election that could end in another political deadlock. But this vote is unlike any other in Israel's recent history.

For many Israelis, the election has become a referendum on accountability for the failures that allowed Hamas terrorists to carry out the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre — the deadliest attack in Israel's history.

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Netanyahu, who has dominated Israeli politics for decades, has resisted calls to accept personal responsibility for the security failures and establish an independent state commission of inquiry. His government instead sought a politically appointed investigation, a proposal fiercely opposed by many bereaved families.

Yet Israel's divisions began long before Oct. 7.

In the months preceding the attacks, hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets to protest Netanyahu's proposed judicial overhaul, which critics argued would undermine the country's democracy. The confrontation spilled into the military, where reservists threatened to suspend volunteer service, raising alarms about Israel's preparedness. Some critics have argued that the turmoil projected weakness to the country's enemies, although the extent to which it influenced Hamas's decision to attack remains disputed.

Three years after the massacre, those divisions have only deepened, transforming Tuesday's vote into something intensely personal. Political allegiances have strained friendships and divided families, with much of the national debate reduced to a single question: Are you for Netanyahu, widely known as "Bibi," or against him?

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For some families who lost loved ones on Oct. 7, the answer is painfully clear.

Shir Shai, whose brother Yaron Shai, an Israeli soldier, was killed battling Hamas terrorists that day, delivered a stark message to those considering another vote for Netanyahu.

"If you nevertheless decide to vote again for the man who brought disaster upon us and his accomplices, I have one personal request: Don't come here anymore," Shai said over her brother's grave in his memorial ceremony on October 7.

"You still have 20 days to be part of the process of putting things right. But if you choose to perpetuate the failure rather than honor the fallen, it would be better if you stayed home next year," she added.

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Yet other bereaved families have reached the opposite conclusion, crediting Netanyahu with standing firm through years of war on multiple fronts and arguing that Israel's military and intelligence establishment bears the principal responsibility for failing to anticipate the Hamas assault.

The deeply polarized atmosphere has been intensified by an increasingly bitter campaign. Just two days before the election, Netanyahu shared an AI-generated image depicting a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv, warning of the existential threat posed by Iran if the country elects a leader unable to confront Tehran.

Concerns now extend beyond the election results themselves. Israeli police are preparing for possible unrest after the polls close, while experts have warned about the potential for disputes over the legitimacy of the results — including an extreme scenario resembling the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

With the opposition united in its ambition to replace Netanyahu but divided over how to govern afterward, neither political bloc is assured of a parliamentary majority and the final outcome could take weeks to determine.

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When do polls open and close?

Israelis will vote Tuesday, Oct. 27, with most polling stations opening at 7 a.m. and closing at 10 p.m. local time.

Election Day is a national holiday in Israel, giving voters the opportunity to cast their ballots. Some smaller communities and special polling locations operate on different schedules.

Eligible voters must be Israeli citizens at least 18 years old and generally vote at their assigned polling station. Most Israelis living abroad cannot vote remotely, although exceptions apply to certain official representatives overseas.

How does Israel's election system work?

Israel has a parliamentary system in which voters select a political party rather than an individual candidate for prime minister.

The country's parliament, known as the Knesset, has 120 seats, distributed through a system of nationwide proportional representation.

Each party submits a ranked list of candidates, and the number of seats it receives depends on its share of the national vote.

To enter parliament, a party must win at least 3.25% of the valid votes. Parties falling below that threshold receive no seats, potentially changing the balance between rival political blocs.

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When will election results be announced?

Israel's major television networks are expected to release exit polls immediately after voting ends at 10 p.m. Tuesday (4 p.m. EST).

Those projections will provide the first indication of how many seats each party may win and whether Netanyahu or his rivals appear better positioned to assemble a coalition.

But exit polls are not official results, and even small differences in the final vote could determine whether parties cross the electoral threshold.

Actual vote counts will emerge as ballots are counted, with preliminary results developing after polls close and over the following days.

Israel's Central Elections Committee has scheduled the publication of official results for Wednesday, Nov. 4, eight days after the election.

Who are the main candidates?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 77, leads the conservative right-wing Likud party and is seeking to extend his record tenure as Israel's longest-serving prime minister.

His main challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, 66, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces who leads the centrist Yashar party and has positioned himself as an alternative to Netanyahu's leadership.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, 54, is also seeking a political comeback, running on a joint ticket with former Prime Minister Yair Lapid.

Other significant political figures include former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Democrats leader Yair Golan and Netanyahu's right-wing populist allies Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

Arab political parties, including Ra'am and the Joint List, could also play a crucial role in determining the final parliamentary balance.

How many seats does a party need to win?

The key number in Israeli politics is 61 — a majority of the 120-seat Knesset.

No single Israeli party has ever won enough seats to control parliament alone, meaning parties generally need to form coalitions with other political factions.

This means the party that wins the most seats does not automatically get to lead the government.

Instead, the decisive question is which political leader can secure enough parliamentary support to govern.

How is Israel's next prime minister chosen?

Once the official results are published, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult representatives of the newly elected parliamentary factions.

Within seven days, the president must assign a member of the Knesset the task of forming a government.

The president generally selects the politician considered most likely to assemble a governing coalition, who is not necessarily the leader of the largest party.

That candidate initially has 28 days to reach agreements with other parties, with the possibility of an extension of up to 14 additional days.

The proposed government must then win a confidence vote in the Knesset before taking office.

What happens if nobody can form a government?

If the first candidate fails, the president can ask another lawmaker to attempt to form a government, giving that person 28 days without an extension.

If that effort also fails, a majority of 61 lawmakers can request that another candidate be given 14 days to try.

If no government emerges, Israel could face another national election.

Coalition negotiations can take weeks or months. According to the Israel Democracy Institute, the process of forming an Israeli government has historically taken between 20 and 100 days.

Until a new government is sworn in, the outgoing government remains in office.

Why is this election particularly consequential?

Tuesday's vote is the first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks, which triggered the war in Gaza and raised profound questions about Israel's security leadership.

Beyond Netanyahu's political future, the next government will face decisions over Israel's national security, the future of Gaza, military conscription, relations with the United States and the country's regional diplomatic relationships.

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With pre-election polling showing no clear path to a parliamentary majority for either major political bloc, the contest could remain unresolved long after Tuesday's votes are counted.

Ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 national vote, President Donald Trump issued a sweeping endorsement of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s re-election bid, calling him a "great warrior," an "even greater partner for peace" and an ally in the confrontation with Iran.

The backing could give Israel’s longest-serving prime minister a boost ahead of the country’s first national vote since the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, massacre. The election is widely viewed in Israel as a referendum on whether to grant Netanyahu another term to pursue his war objectives, including disarming Hamas and Hezbollah and countering the nuclear threat from the Islamic Republic.

In response, Netanyahu thanked Trump for his "extraordinary endorsement." "Together we will never let Iran’s regime get nuclear weapons," he said.

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Addressing the endorsement, Doron Spielman, international spokesman for the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, told Fox News Digital that no personal or professional bond in the history of U.S.-Israel relations compares with the current partnership.

"Israel and the U.S. have stood together as the two countries bearing the torch for the West, and that is a direct result of the incredible relationship between President Trump and Netanyahu," he said.

He reiterated Netanyahu’s long-standing foreign-policy priority and central campaign promise: ensuring that Iran does not acquire atomic bombs under his watch.

"Israel prefers to do this with the U.S., which has been our greatest ally and friend, and who has already entered the front with us twice. But already at the time of Operation Rising Lion, Israel showed that it was willing to act alone. Israel acted for over a week before the U.S. joined," he said, in reference to the June 2025 military mission against Iran.

Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, with roughly 20 years in office, Netanyahu began his diplomatic career in 1982 as deputy chief of mission at Israel’s embassy in Washington, D.C. He served as Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations from 1984 to 1988 before entering politics with Likud. He became the party’s chairman in 1993 and was first elected premier in 1996.

After losing the 1999 election, Netanyahu returned to government in 2002 as foreign minister and later served as finance minister. He returned to the premiership in 2009, serving until 2021 and again from late 2022. He is widely credited with liberalizing Israel’s economy and helping transform the country into a global high-tech hub.

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Netanyahu’s current political allies include Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism-Zehut, and the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism. The newcomer Amcha Yisrael, led by Ofer Winter, could also join the bloc, although Winter is currently feuding with Likud over concerns that his party, which is hovering near the electoral threshold, could split the right-wing vote and potentially "waste" tens of thousands of ballots.

According to most Hebrew-language media polls, neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot currently has a clear path to securing the 61 Knesset seats needed to form a government.

If no candidate can assemble a governing coalition, Israel could head to another election, repeating the cycle of political instability that saw the country hold four national votes between April 2019 and March 2021.

Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told Fox News Digital that any incoming government will face the same formidable security challenges as the current one, with few prospects for quick victories.

"The major challenge in this election will be what Netanyahu discussed in terms of adjusting the national security concept to prioritize prevention. That means taking very serious, assertive and aggressive military counterterrorism and nonmilitary actions against our enemies," Diker said.

The Israeli left, center and even far-right believe Netanyahu has failed to meet the expectations associated with his image as "Mr. Security," according to professor Tamar Hermann, a senior researcher at the Israel Democracy Institute.

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"He promised to topple the Iranian regime, he promised to dismantle Hamas, he promised to crush Hezbollah. None of it was achieved," Hermann told Fox News Digital. "He gave a green light to not punishing vigilantes in the settlements who act against Palestinians. He also gave too much to the ultra-Orthodox parties, giving up on the idea of universal conscription."

Hermann said that Netanyahu’s current term has been his least successful, beginning with the judicial reform push, which triggered mass protests in 2023, and followed by the Palestinian terror attacks on Oct. 7. Netanyahu subsequently faced public anger over his handling of the hostage crisis, although, in coordination with Trump and his envoys, he ultimately secured the return of all the captives.

"In the eyes of some, his legacy will be that he inflicted a huge disaster upon Israel in terms of what happened to civilians on Oct. 7 and the deterioration of Israel’s international image," she said.

Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, framed the upcoming election in terms of legacy and how Netanyahu will be remembered 50 years from now.

"There are two types of leaders: leaders in history and leaders of history," he told Fox News Digital. "There are leaders who go into office and perform as best they can, and there are leaders who go into office and see themselves as transformative, as having a historical role like Abraham Lincoln, Roosevelt or Churchill. Benjamin Netanyahu belongs to this category."

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Oren said Netanyahu sees his mission as saving Israel from existential threats, foremost among them Iran, a goal he has yet to achieve.

"He is willing to endure virtually limitless criticism and condemnation around the world, as well as mass demonstrations against him, to fulfill this one role," he said. "To understand that is to understand Benjamin Netanyahu: He is a leader of history."

Polling ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 election projects that National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit Party will win between seven and ten seats in the 120-member Knesset, potentially making any future government led by Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party contingent on his support and positioning him to secure senior ministerial portfolios.

His political rise mirrors a broader trend across Europe and the West, where parties such as Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella's National Rally in France, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, Australia's One Nation leader, Pauline Hanson, Italy’s Matteo Salvini and Germany's Alice Weidel of the AfD have all gained ground on traditional conservative political parties.

The highly controversial Ben-Gvir, as national security minister, oversees the ministry responsible for internal security, including the Israel Police, Israel Prison Service and civilian firearms licensing.

"I always say that Minister Ben-Gvir, if he were in America, he would just be called a Texan," Yishai Fleisher, international spokesman for the Jewish community of Hebron and a candidate ranked No. 12 on the Otzma Yehudit list, told Fox News Digital.

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In a video interview with Fox News Digital, Fleisher continued, "Meaning law and order, the death penalty for murderers, tough conditions for jihadists in our prisons and gun rights for the average Jewish person to be able to defend themselves in our national state. That’s what Itamar Ben-Gvir stands for," he added.

Fleisher said that mass immigration had fueled Islamist extremism and unrest in parts of Europe, saying Israelis want to avoid similar developments.

"There is a jihadist takeover that has come in through immigration, and now the streets of Paris are burning, and the people of Belgium and the U.K. want their countries back," Fleisher said. "In Israel, we don’t want to see Tel Aviv burning," prompting politicians to embrace what are known in the United States as "law-and-order" and "tough-on-crime" candidates.

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Former Israeli Ambassador to Washington Danny Ayalon said that Ben-Gvir had missed an opportunity to change course despite his lack of military service and past conviction, arguing that his tenure had instead had a damaging impact, including on Israel’s diplomatic standing.

"Ben-Gvir spoke in a way that turned the entire world against Israel, portraying it as a racist country by making statements that made Israel a pariah state," Ayalon said.

Fleisher praised Ben-Gvir, who he said has cracked down on protection rackets in southern Israel and made significant progress toward what he described as greater equality for Jews on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, Judaism’s holiest site.

"Minister Ben-Gvir was an activist from a very young age. He saw the dangers and evils of the Oslo process with the Palestinians and tried to stop it. He was arrested and stopped many times because of that, and he faced the court many times. It was then-Chief Justice Aharon Barak who once told him, ‘Why don’t you go study to be a lawyer?’" Fleisher said.

Ben-Gvir, who studied law, became active in public and political affairs and was first elected to the Knesset in 2021. Following the 2022 elections, he was appointed minister of national security by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

His many critics have taken issue with his firebrand style and what many view as a lack of political correctness.  Ambassador Ayalon, a former deputy foreign minister, told Fox News Digital that he also viewed Ben-Gvir’s performance as national security minister negatively.

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"During his tenure, Israel has become less secure internally because crime is rising. Many young people believed in the last election that he would bring governability and authority to areas such as the Negev and the Galilee, on the outskirts of the country, where there is almost no law," Ayalon said.

In 2007, Ben-Gvir was convicted of supporting a terrorist organization and inciting racism.

His campaign told Fox News Digital that the conviction stemmed from displaying a sticker of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane, whose Kach party was outlawed in 1994, and reflected his support for a Jewish nationalist movement.

"As a young man, Minister Ben-Gvir was an intense Jewish nationalist. He has said many times, publicly, that he has matured since then and moved on from those positions."

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Recent posts on Ben-Gvir’s social media accounts, along with statements issued through Netanyahu’s and Likud’s official channels, have raised questions about whether the two remain fully aligned.

On Oct. 15, Ben-Gvir shared a Hebrew-language media report quoting Netanyahu as saying that he would not serve again as national security minister. In response, Ben-Gvir wrote: "Dear Prime Minister, only the people will decide. Ben Gvir is strong, Israel is strong!"

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Last Wednesday, Netanyahu's Likud party appeared to reverse course, posting a message on its official WhatsApp channel stating: "Ben-Gvir is a senior minister in our government, and he will remain so in the next government — provided that the bloc consisting of the Left and Arab parties does not win."

Despite the public statements, Ayalon said Netanyahu could opt not to include Ben-Gvir in the next government, even if it meant forming an alliance with opposition parties such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar.

"Netanyahu is brilliant. He kept Ben-Gvir because it suited him. If he could, he would get rid of him in a minute. Bibi is capable of changing his mind on a dime," Ayalon said.

Fleisher credited Ben-Gvir with tripling the number of personal firearms and firearms licenses issued to Israelis over four years, establishing 1,000 rapid-response teams, overhauling the prison system and demolishing 9,000 illegally built homes, particularly in the Negev.

In March, the Knesset approved a death-penalty law sponsored by Otzma Yehudit and other lawmakers, a measure Ben-Gvir has strongly championed.

"No more hotel-like conditions in our prisons. You’ll know you are being punished for your crime, and these simple policies ultimately deter jihadism," Fleisher told Fox News Digital.

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"They understand that he represents a full-throated pushback against the jihadist takeover of our land. Ben-Gvir also represents a strong Jewish identity, strong policies and strong laws to ensure that we don’t lose control of our country," he said.

The latest polls show Netanyahu’s bloc slightly behind the opposition, led by Yashar party chief Gadi Eisenkot, but neither side has a clear path to the 61 seats needed for a governing majority.