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For Israel’s Neighbors in Middle East, the Election Offers Little Hope of a Reset

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Jordanian Airstrikes in Syria Spark Diplomatic Tension
Airstrikes carried out by Jordan on Monday night against positions in southern Syria—allegedly linked to the jihadist group Islamic State (IS)—have triggered a diplomatic rift between the two nations. The friction stems from a lack of prior coordination and the fact that the strikes resulted in civilian casualties, including children.
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On Tuesday, the Syrian Foreign Ministry criticized the Hashemite Kingdom for conducting the military operation without prior coordination, describing the action as completely unacceptable and a violation of Syria’s national sovereignty.
The Syrian Foreign Ministry also suggested that certain suspicious groups might be attempting to strain relations between Damascus and Amman, though it provided no further details regarding this claim.
Jordan framed the airstrikes as retaliation for an attack last Friday on a church in the western part of the kingdom, which left nine people dead and approximately 40 injured. Jordanian authorities attributed the attack to the Islamic State, although the organization has not yet claimed responsibility.
#Syria hardened its stance on the Jordanian attack carried out yesterday in the South.
— Qalaat Al Mudiq (@QalaatAlMudiq) October 27, 2026
While the Syrian Foreign Ministry initially expressed "reservations" about the Jordanian airstrikes in a statement last night, this morning, as the civilian death toll was confirmed, Damascus… pic.twitter.com/RvgfBLFVIV
Mohammad Momani, Jordan’s Minister of Government Communications and government spokesperson, stated on the social media platform X that the strikes were launched in response to the movements of these organizations and their acts against Jordan’s national security.
Momani expressed regret over the civilian casualties, maintaining that the armed forces had taken every possible precaution to avoid harming innocent people.
Syrian authorities confirmed that seven people were killed in the strikes, which targeted four areas in the southern province of Daraa. The victims included three children and an 80-year-old man.
Both countries have confirmed the establishment of an urgent joint committee to strengthen coordination in the fight against terrorism. Meanwhile, Momani expressed a commitment to developing bilateral ties for the mutual benefit of both nations.
#Syria | At least 14 people were killed and 11 injured in an explosion at a temporary weapons depot near Sarmada in Idlib province.
— teleSUR English (@telesurenglish) September 9, 2026
Rescue teams are searching the rubble for survivors, while authorities have not yet determined the cause of the blast.#Idlib #teleSUREnglish pic.twitter.com/q5utCtzkFE
Jordan Acknowledges Civilian Casualties in Its Airstrikes in Syria, Claims ISIS Fighters Were Also Killed
Jordan strikes armed groups in Syria it says tied to church attack; Damascus: Civilians killed

Deadly Jordanian Strikes Highlight Syria’s Cross-Border Terror Threat (Videos)
Jordanian warplanes struck several sites in southern Syria late on October 26, killing at least seven people, including three children, according to Syrian authorities, after Amman said it had linked a deadly church shooting to terrorist groups operating across the border.
The strikes hit locations in the southern provinces of Daraa and Suwayda. Jordan described the operation as a counterterrorism measure conducted in coordination with Damascus, while the Syrian government said it had received no advance notification and condemned the civilian deaths.
The Royal Jordanian Air Force called the operation “Jordanian Deterrence – Hmoud,” saying it targeted hideouts belonging to terrorist organizations linked to the October 23 attack on a Greek Orthodox church in the Jordanian city of Karak.
“The terrorists behind the Hmoud attack have ties to the targeted terrorist organizations,” the Jordanian military said in a statement carried by the state-run Petra news agency.
It added that the strikes killed and wounded several members of the targeted groups and destroyed their equipment and vehicles. The military did not identify the organizations or specify the locations hit.
Syrian authorities, for their part, disputed Jordan’s account of coordination and said the strikes claimed the lives of civilians.
The Syrian Civil Defense said seven people were killed across several locations in Daraa and Suwayda. Five members of one family, including three children, a woman and a man, died when a strike hit a tent in rural Daraa, while two older men were killed in separate strikes. Three other members of the family were injured.
The Syrian Foreign Ministry said the operation was conducted “without prior coordination or notification with the Syrian side,” according to a statement carried by the Syrian Arab News Agency early on October 27.
Damascus announced an investigation into the strikes and said it had opened direct communication channels with Jordan to address the incident. It also stressed the need for joint security and military coordination along the border, warning that such operations must respect Syrian sovereignty.
The strikes came hours after Jordanian security forces arrested three suspects in connection with the church shooting following a shootout in the Karak area. The suspects, two brothers and their brother-in-law, were wounded during the operation, authorities said.
The October 23 attack took place during a funeral at the Greek Orthodox church in Karak, killing nine people and wounding 34. The shooting shocked the country, where attacks of this kind are rare, and prompted King Abdullah II to promise a forceful response.
“The Nashama have chased them to the very end. We vowed the terrorists would not escape punishment, and no proponent of dark ideologies that divide Jordanians will be tolerated,” the king said on X after the strikes on Syria. “We pray that the martyrs’ souls rest in peace and wish the injured a speedy recovery.”
Jordanian Interior Minister Mazen Al-Faraya described the attack as the product of “a terroristic, extremist way of thinking.”
The investigation has also raised questions about the alleged organizational links behind the shooting. Jordan’s Public Security Directorate chief, Maj. Gen. Obaidallah Abd Rabbo Al-Maayta, said the three suspects were not affiliated with any group, telling reporters, “They only represent themselves.”
Jordan’s military, however, subsequently said those responsible for the attack had ties to terrorist groups in southern Syria without publicly identifying them or detailing the evidence.
Following the strikes, Syrian authorities closed the Nassib border crossing, suspending passenger and commercial traffic between the two countries.
The escalation highlights a growing security threat from terrorist groups operating inside Syria. With southern Syria serving as a base for their activity, and Damascus seen as either turning a blind eye or failing to contain them, neighboring countries face mounting pressure to act on their own.
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Civilians Reported Killed by Jordanian Airstrikes in Syria
[Exclusive] Iran war and Israeli airstrikes derail thousands of EU deportation flights
The US and Israeli-led war with Iran, launched in late February, and other military campaigns in the region have disrupted flights, leaving around 5,500 deportations that would normally receive support from the EU’s border agency Frontex unexecuted.
The disruption comes despite the Warsaw-based agency’s recent announcement that returns rose in the first half of 2026, with Syrians and Iraqis among the 10 nationalities most frequently deported.
Internally, however, Frontex appears concerned.
In July, it highlighted return problems because of the Middle East crisis, a broad swathe of conflicts that has seen various airspace closures over Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Israel, Qatar, Syria, and the UAE.
It said roughly 4,000 returns had not been carried out because of direct cancellations or broader operational standstills, with member states halting the organisation or scheduling of Frontex-supported returns due to the Middle East conflicts.
By 30 September, that figure had climbed to 5,500.

Although now open (as of publication), airspace restrictions, route availability and operational measures may be introduced, amended or lifted rapidly, sometimes with little notice.
European deportation setbacks typically involve everything from fragmented national systems, to people absconding, and to foreign states refusing to accept their own nationals. But war and conflict are now adding another layer of complications.
This article continues, but the full version is available only to EUobserver.com subscribers. Visit account.euobserver.com/membership
Israel drills for surprise attack with massive military exercise as expert invokes 1973 war
The Israeli military launched large-scale domestic military exercises on Sunday to counter surprise border infiltrations and ground raids across northern and central Israel, mobilizing multiple divisions and air assets amid rising regional tensions.
The drills, set to continue over 48 hours, came as an Israeli security expert invoked the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Egypt and Syria used exercises to disguise preparations for a surprise attack, warning that escalating tensions in the region could in fact trigger what he described as a "dangerous miscalculation."
The large-scale maneuvers, the IDF said, involve the Northern Command’s 210th Division, the West Bank Division, and the Central Command’s 98th and 96th divisions, alongside the Israeli Air Force.
The exercise, scheduled just ahead of Israel's elections Oct. 27, aims to "maintain the forces’ alertness and readiness, strengthen the ability to defend communities, and make full use of aerial capabilities for defense in the area," according to the IDF.
On Friday, the IDF said troops would practice "a variety of scenarios, including a surprise attack and infiltration into Israeli territory by air and land," incorporating lessons learned from the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on Israel.
"This exercise is mostly about non-state actors with or without Iranian support," Israeli national security analyst Dr. Ehud Eilam told Fox News Digital.
"It's aimed at those in Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan who might try to infiltrate into Israel or send ground raids. Some are supported by Iran; others are not. It could be planned by Iran or be a local initiative."
"This is a massive exercise, the biggest one in recent years, aimed at protecting the borders," the former Israeli Ministry of Defense researcher added.
"It's all about making sure that the election day on October 27 will run smoothly. It's also a message to Iran and others: don't try to provoke us during election day, so nothing will be disrupted."
The Israeli drills followed a show of force by Tehran days earlier, during which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired roughly 30 ballistic missiles across two distinct weapon classes, according to reports.
That live-fire display highlighted Iranian strike capabilities and sparked renewed alerts about commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and prompted the Israeli military to heighten its alert level while maintaining maximum readiness for a targeted strike against Iran.
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During a visit to the IDF's Central Command on Wednesday, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir warned that the risk of escalation was growing.
"Given the numerous warnings across all fronts and the sensitivity of the current period, the potential for escalation has increased," Zamir said.
"To ensure better operational control on the ground, we have reinforced our troop deployments across all sectors, including moving the 98th Division into the area to strengthen security and stability."
"Part of mutual deterrence: a few days ago, Iran had their own pretty big exercise, and that was actually more intimidating as far as Israel is concerned because they launched missiles and prepared for a war with Israel," Eilam said.
"This exercise on Sunday and Monday is against Iran's proxies and allies at the border of Israel."
Sunday’s Israeli drill also followed an Oct. 19 mission in which Israeli fighter jets and aerial refueling tankers flew 800 miles across Syrian and Iraqi airspace to Iran’s border.
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Washington was notified in advance and viewed the maneuver as a non-kinetic show of force following the postponement of a broader strike package earlier in the month.
Despite the deterrence signals, Eilam warned that large-scale military exercises carry the "risk of miscalculation" and particularly when troop movements could be mistaken for preparations for an attack.
"During the Cold War, every time the Soviet Union or NATO carried out a major drill, having so many troops in the field meant they might attack if that was the intention," Eilam said.
He pointed to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Egypt and Syria used military exercises to help conceal troop buildups along Israel's borders.
Israeli intelligence largely dismissed the movements as routine drills, allowing the two countries to achieve strategic surprise when they launched a coordinated, two-front attack on Yom Kippur.
"The classic example in Israel is 1973, when Egypt and Syria conducted a major exercise just before the war that turned into the actual attack," the analyst said.
"Israel and Iran are now watching each other very closely and both sides suspect the other might strike first," Eilam added before stating that there is the chance of what they call "miscalculation — that each side suspects the other and strikes first by mistake."
"It's all about sending messages to each other."
"It remains uncertain whether there will eventually be an Israeli attack on Iran because it depends on U.S. authorization," Eilam concluded.
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"Right now, both sides are signaling: 'We are ready, don't mess with us, but we don't want to start a war right now.'"

Three Shepherds Captured in Latest Israeli Operations in Southwest Syria
Turkey Moves to Rebuild Syria’s Navy, Opening a New Front Against Greece and Israel
Turkey has agreed on a roadmap to rebuild Syria’s naval forces in a move that could expand Ankara’s military influence in the eastern Mediterranean and alter the regional balance with Greece and Israel.
Turkey’s Defense Ministry announced the initiative on October 23 after a senior Turkish naval delegation visited the Syrian port city of Latakia.
The discussions covered ship repair and construction, individual and team training, modernization programs and improvements to naval facilities. The ministry said the two sides had reached an understanding and established a roadmap for cooperation.
The delegation included Rear Adm. Erdinç Yetkin, commander of Istanbul Shipyard; Rear Adm. Timur Yılmaz, the Navy’s logistics chief; Rear Adm. Yücel Darcan, head of naval training and education; and representatives of ASFAT, a Turkish defense company.
The initiative comes as Syria attempts to rebuild its armed forces after more than a decade of civil war that ended with the collapse of Bashar Assad’s government close to two years ago.
The country’s already weakened military infrastructure suffered further devastating losses when Israel launched a large-scale campaign to destroy what remained of the former government’s military capabilities.
Strikes targeted Syrian naval facilities along the coast, sinking more than a dozen warships and destroying all coastal defense systems. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz subsequently announced that the operation had destroyed Syria’s naval fleet.
The attacks left Syria with little capacity to field a modern combat fleet capable of challenging established naval powers in the region. Rebuilding that capability will require equipment, technical expertise, trained personnel and functioning maritime infrastructure — areas in which Turkey possesses a substantial advantage.
For Ankara, the cooperation offers an opportunity to establish a deeper and potentially long-term role in the security of Syria’s Mediterranean coastline.
The latest initiative also follows a significant Turkish naval visit to Latakia in July. Turkish Naval Forces Commander Adm. Ercüment Tatlıoğlu arrived aboard the TCG Istanbul frigate, marking the first visit by Turkish naval vessels to the port since the beginning of Syria’s civil war, according to Anadolu Agency.
The deepening maritime cooperation between Turkey and Syria could provoke the maritime alignment involving Greece, Cyprus and Israel.
Ankara has long disputed aspects of Greece’s maritime claims and opposed regional energy arrangements that it considers exclusionary. Greece, Cyprus and Israel, meanwhile, have pursued closer security and energy cooperation, creating another arena for competition over maritime access and regional influence.
A July analysis published by Anadolu Agency, written by a professor at Turkey’s National Defense University, explicitly presented a stronger Syrian navy and improved naval infrastructure at Latakia as developments that could affect this regional balance.
The analysis described cooperation with Syria as another component of Turkey’s expanding network of partnerships with Mediterranean countries, alongside its existing relationships with Libya and Egypt.
For Israel, a future Syrian navy backed by Turkey could introduce a new variable along a coastline where Israel previously faced a severely weakened Syrian military.
The immediate military implications, however, remain limited. The announced roadmap does not establish publicly disclosed rights for Turkey to permanently base warships at Latakia, and the ministry has not announced specific ship orders, delivery schedules or the scale of the planned force.
The agreement therefore represents the beginning of a potential naval reconstruction program, not evidence that Syria has already regained a meaningful maritime combat capability.
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Israeli Forces Kill Man With Down Syndrome in Raid on Southwest Syria Town
Israel’s vision of regional security rests on keeping Arab states weak


Syrians Fear Election Will Be Pretext for New Israeli Offensives
Syria is Preparing to Send 10,000 Troops to Yemen
A Syrian military delegation has held talks in Saudi Arabia on arrangements to transfer as many as 10,000 Syrian fighters to participate in the war against Yemen’s Houthis (Ansar Allah), Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar newspaper reported on October 20, citing Yemeni intelligence sources.
The reported discussions come despite denials by Syria’s transitional government that Damascus intends to send thousands of fighters to southern Saudi Arabia. The alleged deployment could extend Syria’s involvement in a regional conflict that has intensified in recent weeks.
According to Al-Akhbar, the delegation included Brig. Gen. Khaled Khattab, commander of the 82nd Division in Syria’s new army and a former leader of the al-Qaeda-affiliated Ansar al-Tawhid faction, and Brig. Gen. Haitham al-Ali, also known as Abu Muslim, commander of the army’s 3rd Corps and a former leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Yemeni intelligence sources told the newspaper that Khattab spent four days in the southern Saudi provinces of Asir and Najran, accompanied by Saudi officers, visiting sites reportedly being prepared to receive the Syrian fighters.
Al-Ali, meanwhile, held meetings with Saudi officers at the Defense Ministry in Riyadh to discuss transportation costs, financial arrangements, additional benefits and the military missions the contingent would carry out.
The sources said the visiting team had completed preparations for the logistical transfer of the fighters, but the report did not establish when a deployment might take place.
Al-Akhbar also cited sources aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognized government based in Aden as saying that dozens of Syrian trainers specializing in drone operations were already present at military camps in Asir and several locations in Yemen. These reportedly included facilities near Seiyun in Hadramout province, the al-Khasha camp in Hadramout and the al-Anad military base.
The sources said the trainers were instructing members of the Saudi-backed Homeland Shield forces and Giants Brigades. The sources also alleged that Syrian drone operators had established units within Saudi Arabia’s Emergency Forces in Asir and in the al-Wadiah and Sharurah areas.
The report further raised the possibility that foreign fighters could be transferred alongside Syrians. Al-Akhbar cited Syria’s Sham TV as reporting that Khattab was responsible for assembling foreign recruits for deployment to Yemen.
According to the broadcaster, prospective recruits were being offered generous salaries, free pilgrimages to Mecca and Medina, and the possibility of relocating their families to Yemen after a period of what it described as “stability.”
Al-Akhbar cited analysts specializing in political Islam who said fighters from the Syrian army’s 84th Division, which reportedly includes foreign Islamist fighters, could also be transferred. The newspaper said the contingent could include Uyghurs, Uzbeks, Tajiks, Afghans, Chechens, Albanians and Arabs of various nationalities.
The report suggested that relocating foreign fighters could serve Damascus’ interest in reducing the security burden posed by foreign armed groups while consolidating control over the new military establishment. It also cited concerns among observers in Sanaa that transferring such fighters to Yemen could deepen sectarian divisions and prolong the conflict.
A military source in Sanaa told Al-Akhbar that any Syrian involvement in the war against the Houthis Yemen “would not be official.”
“Sending masses of extremists is an intelligence operation that governments do not acknowledge, because it conflicts with international law,” the source said, arguing that the use of foreign armed groups would amount to covert intervention.
The source also accused the United States, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia of supporting the deployment and training of armed groups in Syria during the campaign against former President Bashar Assad, drawing a connection to their current regional cooperation.
The newspaper’s report comes as Saudi Arabia seeks to strengthen its military position against the Houthis, who have continued attacks on Saudi targets while advancing on fronts in Yemen. However, it remains unclear whether the reported Syrian arrangements will result in an actual deployment or whether the scale of the proposed force could be achieved.
Syria’s fractured and under-equipped military is unlikely to change the course of the war in Yemen. Still, participation could carry profound consequences for Damascus, exposing it to retaliation by Iran and its regional allies, undermining the new government’s promise to keep Syria out of foreign conflicts, and threatening the country’s fragile economic recovery.
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Military Situation In Syria On October 20, 2026 (Map Update)
- Israeli forces reportedly carried out more than 13 ground and aerial incursions across Quneitra, Daraa and the Damascus countryside in less than 48 hours;
- Israeli fighter jets flew over southern and central Syria toward Iraq and back on October 20, but no strikes were reported;
- Syrian media reported Israeli preparations for a possible surveillance and early-warning base in al-Suwayda.
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New Israeli Base in Syria’s Al-Suwayda Could Expose Druze to Iranian Retaliation
Israel has begun moving military equipment to a strategic peak in Syria’s al-Suwayda governorate in preparation for establishing a military base, Syria 360 reported on October 17, citing an unnamed source inside the governorate.
The source said dozens of Israeli military helicopters had transported weapons, equipment and advanced systems to the area over the preceding 72 hours.
Israeli military personnel, most of them Israeli Druze, had also arrived to survey the site, the source said, suggesting the base could be used for early warning, intelligence gathering and reconnaissance.
The site is said to be Tel al-Qulaib, a peak in the Jabal al-Arab highlands southeast of al-Suwayda city. The peak previously housed a Syrian army air defense radar site, and its fortifications reportedly remain intact. A concrete airstrip about 700 meters long lies immediately south of the peak.
The combination of elevated terrain, existing military infrastructure and a nearby airstrip could make the site useful for several military purposes.
Radar equipment could provide early warning of missiles and drones approaching from the directions of Iran and Iraq, while communications systems could support Israeli drone operations farther afield.
The airstrip could also support helicopter operations. Israel operates KC-130H Hercules tanker aircraft capable of refueling helicopters in flight, potentially extending the helicopters’ range for long-distance missions. A forward base there could help support helicopter missions to insert or retrieve special forces in Iran, as well as search-and-rescue operations to recover aircrews during a future conflict.
The reported preparations come amid an escalation of Israeli military activity across southern Syria. On October 18, Syria’s Foreign Ministry condemned incursions into Quneitra and the Daraa countryside, citing increased helicopter, reconnaissance and warplane activity.
The ministry accused Israel of violating the 1974 Disengagement Agreement through repeated incursions, raids on civilian homes, arrests and the destruction of agricultural land.
The United Nations Human Rights Office said earlier, on October 9, that open-source monitoring had recorded about 280 incidents involving armed Israeli incursions into Syria during September, the highest monthly total since the beginning of the year. The reported incidents included raids on homes, movement restrictions, intimidation, arbitrary detentions and damage to livelihoods.
If the reported base is established and used to support Israeli operations against Iran, it could become a target in any future confrontation. Druze factions in al-Suwayda seen as helping Israel could also face retaliation from the Islamic Republic or its allies.
Such a confrontation could work in Damascus’s favor. If local armed factions that helped facilitate an Israeli presence were weakened by retaliation or drawn into a regional conflict, the Syrian government could gain an opportunity to expand its influence in al-Suwayda.
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Ukraine opens its first war-crime case against a ship captain for carrying off 54,000 tons of its stolen grain

Ukraine has opened its first war-crime case against a ship captain for carrying off its stolen grain. Ukraine’s Security Service and Prosecutor General’s Office have charged the captain of the cargo ship Matros Pozynich with illegally shipping more than 54,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat that Russian forces stole from occupied territory, the Security Service said on Telegram.
Russia has looted grain across the Ukrainian land it occupies and sold it abroad as its own, a trade Ukrainian intelligence puts at more than 2 million tons in 2025 alone. The case against the Matros Pozynich captain is the first time Kyiv has classified a ship captain’s role in that trade as a war crime, prosecutors said.
The captain, a Russian citizen, twice sailed wheat from occupied Sevastopol in Crimea to the Syrian port of Latakia in 2022 and 2023, according to the Security Service. The first shipment of more than 27,000 tons left Crimea in 2022, and another 27,000-plus tons followed in January 2023.
A crime ordered from the top, investigators say
The shipments were no freelance smuggling run. The grain was removed on the decision of the Russian state’s top political leadership, the Security Service stated, in breach of the Geneva Conventions, which forbid pillaging property in occupied territory.
To hide the voyages, the captain periodically switched off the ship’s automatic identification system and transmitted false coordinates, investigators found. He was notified of suspicion in absentia under two articles of Ukraine’s Criminal Code, including the violations of the laws and customs of war. The service said it is working to identify others in the scheme.
One ship in a fleet that feeds the war
The vessel is a single thread in a much larger theft. Russia has taken roughly 15 million tons of Ukrainian grain from occupied territory between 2022 and August 2025 and earned at least $1 billion from it, money that helps fund the war.
Much of it moves through Russian-controlled ports such as Sevastopol, often relabeled as Russian produce or passed between ships at sea to hide its Ukrainian origin. Buyers have included Syria, Egypt, Türkiye, Lebanon, and others, though Egypt has since pledged to stop accepting grain tied to occupied territories.
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Ongoing tales of Syrian chemical weapons
OPCW Inspector Ian Henderson responds regarding alleged newly-found, un-declared chemical weapons.
By Ian HENDERSON | Consortium News | October 11, 2026
If Douma, one of the highest-profile “proven” chemical attacks attributed to Syria’s former Bashar Assad government, has been shown to be fake, what does it say about new, undeclared Syrian chemical weapons that have supposedly been found?
It says we should be extremely skeptical about news of such discoveries.
I spent years compiling an insider’s analysis of the evolving Western narrative of Syrian chemical attacks while I was at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) as well as afterwards.
My conclusion was it is nigh impossible to prove a negative in this situation; to say there had never been a chemical attack by the Syrian government forces.
However, when it came to high-profile allegations of such attacks in the Syrian towns of East Ghouta, Khan Sheykhoun, Ltamenah, Saraqib and Douma, there were fatal flaws in the official narratives.
There were unmistakable signs, clear to us on the inside, of fabrication.
The Douma attack eight years ago appeared to be the last of a series of chemical allegations against the regime.
Yet the saga continues. The OPCW sent a new mission to Syria this May to try to find alleged, undeclared chemical weapons from the government of Bashar al-Assad, who was ousted in 2024.
Before examining the intentions and results of this mission, it is useful to review how the Western-backed OPCW handled its investigation into the 2018 chemical weapons attack in Douma, a suburb of Damascus.
I was an OPCW inspector on that mission and this is why I blew the whistle.
The Establishment Narrative
Just how much of the establishment narrative that blamed Assad for using chemical weapons be believed ?
Devised during the early part of the Western and Gulf-backed jihadist war to overthrow Assad a decade and a half ago – and built upon steadily by Western belligerents throughout the crisis – the story that Assad had “gassed his own people” was widely believed with mainstream media fully on board.
Doubters were glibly dismissed, including “official” dissenters such as some senior inspectors at the OPCW. I was among them.
The chemical allegations followed a well-oiled procedure. Armed opposition groups – who were seeking direct Western military intervention to support their effort to overthrow Assad – would raise the alarm online by posting slick images and videos of an alleged chemical attack.
These opposition groups, sometimes assisted by Western NGOs, would then bring supposed witnesses of these alleged attacks to Gaziantep in Turkey, where the OPCW would send fact-finding missions to interview them.
The OPCW would generally believe the opposition groups and their witnesses and accept items of supposed “evidence” handed over to them, sometimes months after the alleged attack. Until the Douma allegation in 2018, the fact-finding mission never got to the scene of any Syrian chemical attack after an initial attempt in 2014 went awry.
The fact-finding report would be secretly drafted under the direct control of OPCW top management, bypassing any procedural or technical oversight, and would conclude that it was “reasonable to believe” that a chemical attack had indeed taken place.
The follow-up investigations by the heavily politicized Joint Investigative Mechanism (J.I.M.), or by the later Investigation and Identification Team (I.I.T.), would suggest that “a reasonable person would believe” that the Syrian Armed Forces were responsible for the attack.
OPCW inspectors are not fools. Many of us saw what was going on, seeing the tight political control that the U.S. and to a lesser degree the U.K. exerted over anything to do with the Syrian file. But the draconian confidentiality regime in the OPCW kept everyone subdued.
The breakthrough came after the April 2018 Douma allegation.
For the first time, an OPCW team actually got to the scene of an alleged chemical attack, at the town of Douma, in southwestern Syria, about 10 kilometers (6 miles) northeast of Damascus.
We did our job thoroughly, and in doing so we identified serious flaws in the allegation.
OPCW Extreme Measures
The OPCW resorted to ever-escalating measures to bring things back on track. After trying to secretly modify the interim report by withdrawing it from publication and sneaking in the preordained conclusions that were required by influential delegations, senior OPCW officials went to extremes.
They removed all the team members who had gone to Douma and produced a flawed Fact Finding Mission report written by persons unknown, none of whom had much knowledge of what the Douma team had done.
The fact-finding report predictably found that “it was reasonable to believe” there had been an attack with chlorine in Douma. This was followed much later by the OPCW’s inevitable I.I.T. report that blamed the Syrian regime for the attack.
In reaching its conclusions, the drafters claimed, as usual, to have been informed by anonymous experts. The context in the reports was usually along the lines of the fact-finding mission (F.F.M.) “asked an expert about this and the expert said it was possible.” Many qualified experts and commentators, including me, consider this laughable.
The OPCW were going too far, and ultimately this led to the ongoing dispute where the two most senior and experienced inspectors in the F.F.M. team objected.
The drafter of the team’s interim report, Dr. Brendan Whelan (“Inspector B”), was one. I was the other. In my case I had also led the politically-mandated inspections at two facilities of the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Centre (S.S.R.C.) suspected of harbouring illicit chemical weapons activities.
Here again, we did our work thoroughly and in drafting the S.S.R.C. inspection reports I made clear that there was nothing amiss in either of the facilities.
This didn’t stop the U.S., U.K. and France from conducting punitive missile strikes on Barzah S.S.R.C., on the basis of social media postings on the Douma allegation, even before the OPCW team had arrived at the incident scene.
Rather than another detailed analysis of the Douma scandal, suffice it to say, the official Douma narrative has been clearly and scientifically picked apart by many credible observers, including by Dr. Whelan and myself.
This has been widely reported, although predictably not much in the mainstream media.
The OPCW and Western delegations have been in crisis management mode ever since the first leak, that of an internal engineering summary that cast doubt on the allegation that chlorine cylinders had been dropped from aircraft, raising the possibility that militants had placed the cylinders to stage the scene of a chemical attack.
I was the author of that report.

Nose of chlorine cylinder alleged to have smashed through a steel-reinforced concrete roof, April. 21, 2018. (OPCW, courtesy former Syrian government)
Worse still for the prevailing Douma narrative, Dr. Whelan recently won a legal case against the OPCW for their charges against him of confidentiality breaches.
In their submissions, the OPCW inadvertently admitted to suppressing the key toxicology assessment (incidentally by NATO specialists) that dismissed chlorine as the likely cause of death of deceased victims shown in images posted from the scene.
[See: OPCW Inadvertently Admitted Burying Critical Evidence on Syria Chemical Weapons Investigation]
The OPCW has refused to engage in any discussion on the facts and scientific substance of the case, ever since concerns were first raised by Dr. Whelan and myself.
This intransigence to re-open the file is likely dictated by the needs of the three belligerent governments that subjected Syria to punitive missile strikes in retaliation for the supposed Syrian chemical attack even before the Douma F.F.M. had started work.
Any updated or corrected findings on Douma would be inconvenient.
The New OPCW Mission
Still apparently seeking to prove its case, the OPCW formed a new Syria mission in May aimed at “finding” alleged missing, un-declared chemical weapons.
At the end of May the mission reported finding 42 empty chemical weapons munitions; a launcher; bomb-mixing units; precursor-type containers; a facility whose contents were not revealed and thousands of pages of documents that are still being reviewed.
The mission also found 650 kg of “a chemical compound known to have been used by the former government for the production of nerve agents,” which the report does not name. It says an unknown quantity of hexamine, a legal chemical with wide industrial use, was found but it is not clear if this is the same compound as in the 650 kg.
In September, the Syrian government, now under the leadership of a former al-Qaeda and ISIS leader, began destroying the empty bombs, but not any of the chemicals that were found, presumably meaning none were banned.
Despite all the fanfare of these results being presented at a U.N. Security Council meeting last month, it appears that the new OPCW mission came up as empty as those bombs.
None of these discoveries does anything to prove that Assad ever used a chemical weapon, in other words, nothing to prove that I, along with other OPCW officials and countless observers and commentators who challenged the Assad chemical weapons narrative were wrong.
Presumably after all the effort in creating that narrative, Western governments and mainstream media that promoted the Iraq war and then the Syrian conflict to achieve regime change in that country, require a tidier ending than the mess they made of the Iraqi WMD story.
An early press release from the OPCW is telling. It shows what they were attempting to prove with this May mission, in particular two rather flimsy suggestions.
They report the discovery of some of the empty munitions,
“including the same type of aerial bombs that were used in chemical attacks in Ltamenah in March 2017 and Khan Shaykhun in April 2017.”
This refers to empty M4000 aerial bombs, declared by the Syrians as part of their stockpile.
Aside from the questionable Douma-like irregularities surrounding “evidence” used by the OPCW to conclude that sarin-filled M4000 bombs were used in those attacks, it’s important to mention something else.
The Syrians had clearly explained to us that 2,000 of these bombs, never filled, had been set aside to be “repurposed,” in other words to be filled with high explosive to turn them into conventional munitions. These could turn up anywhere.
A second questionable statement in the press release is,
“Rockets were also found, of the same type as those that were used in the Ghouta chemical weapons attack in August 2013.”
This relates to artillery rockets crudely modified with a large cylindrical payload container added at the front.
For a start, the U.N./OPCW report of Ghouta did not attempt to identify the perpetrators of that sarin attack, since it was not part of their mandate. The accusations against the regime have always been political, something the mainstream media happily took up.
The Most Credible Analysis So Far
The Ghouta sarin attack took place on Aug. 21, 2013 and according to Western sources killed more than 1,000 people in the Damascus suburb.
The most serious investigation of the Ghouta incident to date points to the attack being launched from opposition-occupied positions, and remains the most credible analysis of the attack.
The opposition forces allegedly responsible were from the al-Nusra Front, which conducted joint operations in 2013 in the Damascus area with the Liwa Al Islam opposition group. Al-Nusra were known to be in possession of sarin, according to reporting by Seymour Hersh, who wrote:
“In the months before the [Aug. 21, 2013] attack [in Ghouta], the American intelligence agencies produced a series of highly classified reports, culminating in a formal Operations Order – a planning document that precedes a ground invasion – citing evidence that the al-Nusra Front, a jihadi group affiliated with al-Qaida, had mastered the mechanics of creating sarin and was capable of manufacturing it in quantity. When the attack occurred al-Nusra should have been a suspect, but the administration cherry-picked intelligence to justify a strike against Assad.”
Indeed the U.N./OPCW team was in Damascus at the time of the attack in Ghouta because it was responding to an earlier request from the Syrian government to investigate chemical attacks against their forces.
The OPCW release also mentions a typical catch-all referring to “quantities of separately stored chemicals and related equipment, the nature of which is currently under technical analysis.”
There will always be suggestions of vague bits and pieces, rusty remnants that “may have been a part of” alleged undeclared elements of a chemical weapons program.
And, keep in mind, it’s been 22 months since the Assad government was ousted and their enemies in the opposition group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have been running the country.
So far as I can see, the OPCW hasn’t found anything remotely close to the desired smoking gun. Anything real, I should say.
Partners in the Anti-Assad Chemical Narrative

Syrian President Ahmaad Al Shaara, former Al Nusra/HTS fighter, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio in New York City, September 2025. (State Department Photo, Wikimedia)
We need to keep in mind how this is working. There are three partners in this latest endeavour on the anti-Assad chemical narrative.
First, we have the Western governments, belligerents in the Syrian conflict, which worked hard on building the chemical narrative to delegitimise the regime.
The U.K. government offered specialists to check out suspected sites in Syria to prepare them for the May mission in order to “assist” the current government in finding evidence of hidden chemical weapons.
That leads us to the second group, the government in Syria, reportedly eager to please their Western sponsors in return for economic favours. They are the Al-Nusra/HTS extremists who, in the case of Douma, fabricated the scene to raise a chemical false flag allegation against the Assad.
The third partner is the OPCW.
That means the various groups who have been on this mission are a) those who staged scenes of chemical attacks; b) those who directed them to do so (including Western intelligence agents who allegedly coached and assisted them); and c) the organisation that went along with the narrative and dutifully produced reports damning the Assad regime.
It may appear to the reader that I’m suggesting that the OPCW reports on Syrian chemical weapons will continue to be little more than propaganda, the usual sexed-up nonsense. Perhaps so. In disputing this, these assertions will be dismissed as conspiracy theories.
However, this argument is weakened because the source of the alternative narrative is the scientists and senior inspectors (many “Western”) from within the OPCW teams, including the Douma fact-finding mission and Scientific Studies and Research Centre inspections.
This is why Douma remains a key element in the debate. If they did it once (and doggedly stuck to their guns), they probably did it before.
Many serious and eminent observers are imploring the OPCW to conduct a review of the Douma case, including by the OPCW’s own Scientific Advisory Board.
I see this being done by credible, independent and neutral experts in the fields of chemistry, toxicology, metallurgy and engineering, overseen by the relevant professional institutes.
These experts would report their findings transparently, putting their names and reputations behind their analysis. This will clear up the Douma controversy, either demonstrating that it could have actually happened as alleged, or demonstrating the flaws in the OPCW reports.
Exposing a clear and deliberate fraud would seriously weaken the Western narrative on alleged Syrian chemical attacks. Therefore, in my view, it is not going to happen under the purview of the OPCW.
Ever.
I don’t mean to suggest that those calling for a review are unrealistically hopeful. But the risks of such a review are perhaps too high for it ever to be envisaged by the Western group that was aligned with the efforts on regime change in Syria — chiefly the U.S., the U.K. and France.
This does not mean it can’t happen. There is more than enough open-source material, as well as now-unclassified facts, images, analysis results and information available from the OPCW itself, from former OPCW officials and inspectors, and held by Member States, that would support a credible in-depth review.
The basis for expert analysis would be the material used in the fact-finding mission and I.I.T. reports themselves.
By now we know there isn’t any “smoking gun” evidence. If there had been, it would have been cited in the mission and I.I.T. reports.
Trust me, this study will bear clear results. My hope is that someone sufficiently curious and responsible will commission and fund it.
Ian Henderson served as an OPCW inspector from the establishment of the Chemical Weapons Convention in 1997, and was appointed as one of the first Inspection Team Leaders. An experienced chemical engineer with military experience, he led many of the more complex missions to more than 55 countries. After returning to a career in the chemical industry for 10 years he rejoined the OPCW in 2016 as part of the “rehire” scheme aimed at bringing back experienced inspectors. It was during this time that he became involved in the Syrian chemical weapons operations and, along with others, objected to the apparent influences of political control in the organization. He was suspended from the OPCW in May 2019 after the leak (by unknown others) of his dissenting engineering report on the Douma cylinders.




