The European Commission has opened talks with oil producers, refiners and NATO over the future of Europe’s fuel industry, exposing growing tensions between decarbonisation, industrial competitiveness and the demands of military preparedness.

The European Union is reconsidering the strategic importance of its oil-refining industry as disruptions to international energy supplies and growing defence requirements force Brussels to examine whether Europe can afford further reductions in domestic fuel production.

On 28 October, the European Commission convened its first high-level dialogue with the European refining industry, bringing together energy companies, technology providers and representatives of NATO.

The meeting was chaired jointly by Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen and Defence and Space Commissioner Andrius Kubilius.

Its significance extends beyond the immediate increase in fuel prices associated with the conflict in the Middle East.

Brussels is confronting a longer-term problem: Europe intends to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, but its transport networks, industrial infrastructure and military forces remain substantially dependent on petroleum products.

The question is no longer simply how quickly the European economy can decarbonise. It is also how much refining capacity must be retained to guarantee essential fuel supplies during a geopolitical crisis.

A strategic industry under pressure

Europe’s refining industry occupies an important position in the continent’s energy system.

According to figures published by the European Commission, EU refineries supply approximately 70 per cent of the jet fuel and 85 per cent of the diesel consumed in Europe.

These products are essential not only for civilian transport and logistics but also for military aviation, armoured vehicles and the movement of equipment.

Maintaining adequate production capacity therefore has implications for both economic activity and defence readiness.

Yet European refineries have faced difficult commercial conditions for years.

High energy costs, international competition and declining expectations for long-term fossil-fuel demand have complicated investment decisions.

Refineries require substantial capital expenditure to remain competitive, meet environmental requirements and adapt production processes.

Companies considering whether to modernise facilities must consequently assess the profitability of assets that may be expected to operate in a progressively decarbonising economy.

The resulting uncertainty creates a problem for governments seeking to retain strategically important industrial capabilities.

The Middle East conflict changes the calculation

The immediate catalyst for the Commission’s initiative is the disruption to energy markets caused by the continuing conflict in the Middle East.

Interruptions to supply chains and uncertainty over maritime transport have increased concerns about the availability and cost of refined petroleum products.

Importing crude oil and importing finished fuels are not equivalent from a strategic perspective.

A country with domestic refining capacity can process available crude into the particular products required by its economy.

An economy heavily dependent on imported refined products is additionally exposed to processing capacity, transport availability and commercial decisions outside its jurisdiction.

The distinction becomes particularly relevant when governments must guarantee supplies of diesel and aviation fuel during an emergency.

European policymakers are therefore examining ways to improve output from existing facilities and strengthen the resilience of fuel supply chains.

However, the Commission has not announced a binding production target or a programme to reopen closed refineries.

The 28 October meeting represents the beginning of a policy discussion rather than the adoption of a new industrial strategy.

NATO introduces a different perspective

The participation of NATO gives the initiative a wider security dimension.

Military preparedness requires dependable access to energy products, including during periods when normal commercial supply chains are disrupted.

Aircraft, naval vessels, military logistics and ground operations cannot be reorganised around alternative energy sources at the same pace as some civilian activities.

Furthermore, the ability to sustain prolonged operations depends on reliable industrial production, storage, distribution and transport.

A refinery’s strategic importance may therefore exceed its immediate commercial profitability.

That raises difficult policy questions.

Governments may consider whether critical production facilities require targeted support, whether strategic stockpiles are sufficient and how supply arrangements should function during emergencies.

Any intervention would have to address competition rules, public financing and the risk of subsidising facilities that become commercially unviable.

Decarbonisation remains part of the policy

Brussels has not abandoned its climate objectives.

The Commission has explicitly linked its refining discussions to the development of sustainable biofuels and synthetic fuels, commonly known as e-fuels.

These technologies offer potential alternatives for sectors where direct electrification remains technically difficult, including aviation.

However, their commercial development requires investment, suitable feedstocks, reliable energy supplies and sufficient demand.

Traditional refineries may be able to participate in this transition, although the technical requirements and economic viability vary between facilities.

Jørgensen said the Commission intended to work with industry on a roadmap that would reconcile domestic fuel production with Europe’s longer-term climate ambitions.

The challenge will be translating those objectives into investment decisions.

Europe’s industrial strategy faces a practical test

The initiative illustrates a wider adjustment in European economic policy.

In recent years, the EU has increasingly described industrial capacity as an element of economic security, rather than treating production solely as a commercial activity.

Semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals and defence equipment have all attracted attention because of vulnerabilities in international supply chains.

Oil refining is now entering the same discussion.

The Commission must determine how to preserve sufficient capacity for essential civilian and military requirements while continuing to encourage cleaner technologies.

Those objectives are not necessarily incompatible, but they operate over different timescales and involve different commercial incentives.

For European refiners, the central question is whether governments can provide enough regulatory and investment certainty to support modernisation.

For Brussels, it is whether the energy transition can proceed without creating new strategic dependencies.

The outcome of the dialogue will indicate how the EU intends to balance its climate commitments with the industrial demands of a less predictable security environment.

My home government, the UK, last week somewhat belatedly joined the growing list of EU and European nations advising its citizens to stockpile essential supplies for a minimum of three days, in case of unforeseen (or initially unsolvable) crises.

In doing so, London helped bring into the mainstream what until around a decade ago had been the preserve of nutty survivalist US “preppers” (colloquial abbreviation for the conspiracy loons in woodshacks in backwoods America, preparing for the return of Jesus Christ or a ‘commie invasion’).

Instead, the topic has now become a nervously jokey staple of middle-class dinner parties.

As the conversation wanders from what horrible disaster might befall society, from freak flooding, to nuclear war, to an internet blackout or poisoned water supplies, the talk rapidly becomes one of ‘so what’s in your box’?

The UK list was a ‘success’ in that – unlike the early days of Covid – it didn’t result in mass panic buying, and empty shelves. But the mass panic is a point we’ll come back to.

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France has deployed a maritime patrol aircraft to Romania following a series of attacks on civilian vessels near NATO territory. The escalating threat has prompted closer cooperation between Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey, raising questions about maritime security and the protection of Europe’s eastern flank.

A series of drone attacks on commercial shipping in the western Black Sea has brought the consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine increasingly close to NATO territory, prompting additional military surveillance and renewed regional defence cooperation.

France has temporarily deployed an Atlantique 2 maritime patrol aircraft to Romania, while NATO members bordering the Black Sea are strengthening arrangements to monitor shipping routes, identify airborne threats and protect critical infrastructure.

The French aircraft began operating from Romania’s Mihail Kogălniceanu airbase on 18 October and is scheduled to continue reconnaissance missions until 6 November.

Its deployment follows repeated attacks on merchant vessels near Romania and Bulgaria, both members of NATO and the European Union.

At least eight cargo ships have been struck in the region during October, with approximately 34 sailors reported dead or missing, according to figures reported by Reuters on 27 October.

The incidents have transformed commercial maritime security into an increasingly urgent issue for European defence planners.

Commercial vessels enter the conflict zone

The latest escalation has centred on shipping routes serving Ukraine’s Danube ports and commercial traffic passing through the western Black Sea.

Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian maritime infrastructure have increased the importance of alternative export routes, including those connecting the Danube to international shipping lanes.

However, recent incidents demonstrate that geographical proximity to NATO territory does not necessarily provide commercial vessels with protection from the effects of the conflict.

On 23 October, a drone struck a Comoros-flagged cargo vessel near the Romanian port of Constanța.

According to maritime security company Ambrey, the vessel was hit approximately 16 nautical miles east of the port and subsequently capsized.

One crew member was reported dead, nine were rescued and three remained missing in the initial casualty figures.

Ambrey assessed it as highly likely that Russian forces carried out the attack, pointing to the vessel’s links with Ukrainian Danube ports.

That assessment represents an attribution by a commercial security organisation, rather than a final determination by an international investigative body.

Other incidents have similarly raised questions over responsibility.

Ukraine has accused Russia of attacking civilian shipping, while Bulgarian authorities have acknowledged difficulties in conclusively identifying the operators of drones involved in some strikes.

France strengthens maritime surveillance

Romania’s Defence Ministry announced on 27 October that the Atlantique 2 deployment followed a request from Bucharest in response to the deteriorating security situation.

The aircraft is conducting surveillance and reconnaissance over the western Black Sea, working with Romanian naval authorities and maritime rescue coordination services.

Its principal responsibilities include identifying hazards to navigation and improving awareness of threats to critical infrastructure within Romania’s exclusive economic zone.

That infrastructure includes offshore energy facilities and maritime installations whose protection is increasingly relevant to European energy security.

The deployment adds to Romanian naval patrols conducted by ships, helicopters and unmanned systems.

Romanian authorities are also providing navigational warnings and recommended routes to commercial vessels.

Nevertheless, additional surveillance does not automatically prevent attacks.

The practical challenge lies in detecting relatively small unmanned aircraft or maritime drones, determining their intentions and responding before they reach civilian targets.

Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey coordinate their response

The security crisis was also discussed at a trilateral meeting of defence ministers in Sofia on 28 October.

Romania’s Defence Minister, Ștefan-Radu Oprea, met his Bulgarian counterpart, Dimitar Stoyanov, and Turkey’s Defence Minister, Yaşar Güler, to examine the consequences of attacks on commercial shipping.

According to the Romanian Defence Ministry, the ministers discussed closer intelligence-sharing, improved maritime surveillance and better coordination between their naval forces.

They also reaffirmed the importance of the existing Black Sea mine-countermeasures initiative involving the three countries.

Maritime mines remain a persistent hazard because they can drift beyond their original deployment areas, endangering civilian vessels irrespective of their destination or ownership.

The trilateral format provides a practical mechanism for neighbouring countries to coordinate activities while retaining responsibility for their respective national waters.

It also gives Turkey a central role in regional discussions, reflecting its position on the Black Sea and its control of access through the Turkish Straits under the Montreux Convention.

The limits of NATO’s maritime protection

The attacks raise a complicated legal and operational question: what responsibilities do NATO members have when civilian ships are attacked near their coastlines?

The distinction between territorial waters and an exclusive economic zone is important.

A coastal state’s territorial sea generally extends up to 12 nautical miles from its baseline, while its exclusive economic zone can extend considerably further and confers particular economic and jurisdictional rights.

An attack within a NATO member’s exclusive economic zone does not automatically constitute an armed attack against that member’s territory.

Nor does every strike on a civilian ship near NATO territory automatically trigger the collective-defence provisions of Article 5.

The circumstances, attribution, location and consequences of an incident would all influence the response.

This creates a security problem in which threats can affect European economic interests without necessarily crossing a threshold requiring collective military action.

Maritime trade and energy infrastructure face increasing risks

The implications extend beyond individual vessels.

Repeated attacks can increase insurance costs, complicate shipping schedules and discourage operators from using particular routes.

They can also affect Ukrainian agricultural exports and the wider commercial networks linking Black Sea ports to European markets.

Offshore energy installations face related vulnerabilities, particularly where surveillance and response capabilities are insufficient.

For NATO, the challenge is therefore to strengthen deterrence and protection without unintentionally escalating the conflict.

France’s reconnaissance deployment and the trilateral cooperation between Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey indicate that regional governments are moving towards a more coordinated response.

However, the continuing attacks demonstrate the difficulties of protecting civilian maritime activity against comparatively inexpensive unmanned systems.

The longer-term question is whether increased surveillance, counter-drone capabilities and naval cooperation can make western Black Sea shipping sufficiently secure while the war in Ukraine continues.

Defence Minister Vasilis Palmas has said that Greek F-16 fighter jets and a Greek Navy vessel now have a permanent presence in Cyprus, in what appears to mark a shift from his earlier statements that the deployment was temporary.

“There is a permanent presence of F16 fighter aircraft while at the same time there is a Greek Navy vessel permanently in Cyprus, ” he said, with Thessaloniki port as the backdrop to his statements.

Speaking to Defence Redefined in the city, where he attended Wednesday’s celebrations marking the anniversary of October 28, 1940, Palmas said defence cooperation between Cyprus and Greece had moved “from slogans to political action”.

He described cooperation between Athens and Nicosia as excellent at both political and military levels, stressing the close historical and national ties between the two countries.

Palmas also referred to the participation of Cypriot commandos in the Ochi Day military parade, a first, saying their presence carried both symbolic and practical significance, demonstrating the close relationship between the armed forces of the two countries.

The minister highlighted bilateral defence agreements and joint programmes, including cooperation under the European Union’s Safe defence financing scheme.

Turning to Cyprus’ wider defence partnerships, Palmas referred to cooperation with European countries, including France and Israel, which has become an increasingly important supplier of military equipment to the National Guard.

He confirmed that a new contract for the acquisition of an offshore patrol vessel from Israel had been signed on October 26.

The agreement involves Israel Shipyards building the new vessel, with Rafael Advanced Defence Systems supplying its naval systems, while the existing Ioannides patrol vessel will also undergo a systems upgrade.

The deal follows earlier Israeli media reports of a naval procurement agreement valued at approximately €150 million.

Palmas indicated that further Israeli defence equipment programmes are being planned to meet the operational requirements of the National Guard and strengthen the Republic’s deterrent capabilities.

His remarks came as he met Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias in Thessaloniki on Wednesday, with the two ministers discussing the latest international security developments and bilateral defence cooperation.

The minister’s latest statements on the Greek military presence are particularly significant given that, Palmas had explicitly ruled out any decision on a permanent deployment of Greek military assets to the island.

In the statements made in June, he said the F-16s and the Greek frigate Elli remained in Cyprus as part of a temporary deployment following heightened regional tensions.

“We have not discussed either a temporary extension or a permanent presence,” he said in June, adding that any longer-term arrangement would depend on a reassessment of security conditions.

The latest Greek frigate publicly identified as deployed to Cyprus is the Nikiforos Fokas (F-466), which replaced the Elli in July following the latter’s almost 100-day deployment. Like its predecessors, the vessel is equipped with Greece’s Kentavros counter-drone system.

The deployment forms part of a continuous Greek naval presence established in March, following the drone strike on the British base at Akrotiri. The frigates Kimon and Psara were initially dispatched, followed by the Elli and subsequently the Nikiforos Fokas.

Palmas and Dendias had reviewed the deployment during talks in Athens, with the Cypriot minister describing Greece’s response as providing a “protective umbrella” for the Republic.

Although Palmas maintained in June that the deployment was temporary, Greek military aircraft and naval vessels continued to operate in and around Cyprus in subsequent months.

In September, Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis described the deployment as a demonstration of Greece’s military capabilities.

In an interview with the Cyprus Mail in June, Palmas defended Cyprus’ expanding network of defence partnerships, insisting that the Republic would not seek anyone’s approval before entering into military agreements.

“The Republic of Cyprus is a recognised state and has every right to conclude agreements, develop relations and forge alliances with any member of the international community it considers appropriate,” he said at the time.

“We will not ask anyone’s permission for the agreements we make, whether they concern the country’s political activity, defence or security. The security of our citizens is non-negotiable.”

The government has also budgeted more than €1.28billion for defence strengthening between 2027 and 2029, with spending expected to rise substantially as procurement programmes move forward.

Defence Minister Vasilis Palmas met his Greek counterpart Nikos Dendias in Thessaloniki on Wednesday, with discussions focusing on the latest international security developments and defence cooperation between Cyprus and Greece, as the two countries marked the 86th anniversary of October 28, 1940.

Palmas is representing the Cyprus government at the Ochi Day celebrations in Thessaloniki, which culminate in a major military parade attended by Greece’s political and military leadership.

“I had the pleasure of meeting today in Thessaloniki with the Defence Minister of the Republic of Cyprus, Vasilis Palmas, on the anniversary of October 28, 1940,” Dendias said in a social media post.

“We discussed the latest international developments concerning security issues and defence cooperation between our countries,” he added.

Speaking separately to ‘Defence Redefined’in Thessaloniki, Palmas said defence cooperation between Cyprus and Greece had moved “from slogans to political action”, pointing to what he described as the permanent presence of Greek F-16 fighter jets and a Greek Navy vessel in Cyprus.

He said cooperation between Athens and Nicosia was excellent at both political and military levels, highlighting bilateral agreements and joint programmes, including those under the EU’s SAFE defence financing scheme. He also described the participation of Cypriot commandos in the Thessaloniki military parade as both symbolic and a practical demonstration of the close ties between the two countries.

Turning to defence procurement, Palmas referred to Cyprus’ cooperation with France and Israel, confirming that a contract for the acquisition of a new offshore patrol vessel from Israel had been signed on October 26. He added that further Israeli defence equipment programmes were being planned to strengthen the National Guard’s deterrent capabilities.

Palmas on Wednesday described Greece’s historic “No” of October 28, 1940, as a defining moment in Greek history and a symbol of resistance with worldwide significance, as he attended Ochi Day commemorations in Thessaloniki.

In a message on social media marking the 86th anniversary, Palmas said the Greek people’s refusal to surrender to fascist Italy sent a powerful message against totalitarianism, expansionism and disregard for human dignity.

He said the events of 1940 left behind an enduring responsibility to preserve historical memory, defend democratic ideals and strengthen unity among Greeks.

That responsibility, he added, extended to working towards “a Europe and a world where freedom, peace and justice are non-negotiable values and firm foundations.”

Palmas concluded by extending his wishes to Greeks around the world.

The Cyprus presidency also marked the anniversary, paying tribute to the Greek people’s resistance against fascism and their contribution to the wider Allied struggle during the Second World War.

“We honour the epic of 1940, the unparalleled resistance of the Greek people and the Greek nation against fascism, which marked a milestone in the broader effort to halt the Axis powers,” the presidency said.

It added that the events of 1940 demonstrated that “the dignity and pride of a people cannot be measured by the strength of weapons.”

The foreign ministry similarly described October 28 as a day of determination and resistance, when Greeks stood united in defence of their freedom and national independence.

It also highlighted the contribution of Cypriots who supported Greece during the war.

“Cypriots stood alongside Greece then, supporting the struggle in every possible way,” the ministry said.

“We honour the memory of those who defended the ideals of democracy. Our duty remains to continue the struggle for freedom,” it added.

The commemorations in Thessaloniki mark the culmination of three days of celebrations honouring the city’s liberation from Ottoman rule on October 26, 1912, the feast of its patron saint, Saint Demetrios, and the anniversary of October 28, 1940.

The military parade along Megalou Alexandrou Avenue is being attended by Greek President Konstantinos Tasoulas, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, opposition leader Nikos Androulakis, Defence Minister Nikos Dendias and European Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism Apostolos Tzitzikostas, alongside Palmas and other dignitaries.

The programme includes a wreath-laying ceremony at 10.15am, followed by the parade at 11am.

For the first time this year, military contingents will march ahead of civilian groups, with the parade scheduled to conclude with a precision flying display by an F-16 fighter jet from the Greek Air Force’s Zeus demonstration team, piloted by Squadron Leader Christos-Paris Charitos.