Ten years ago, ‘Project Fear’ was at the heart of the ‘Remain’ campaign’s inept efforts to persuade Britons not to vote to leave the EU.
Voting for Brexit, according to David Cameron’s government Doomsday forecasts, would cost every household £4,300 (€5,000) per year from 2030, lead to an immediate recession and mean lower house prices.
It was a huge mistake. That all the pro-EU camp could say about being members of the club was that it would be very expensive to leave was a jarring admission of failure. And the promised economic apocalypse of instant recession and house price warnings didn’t happen. Most people simply didn’t believe the figures or that the politicians behind them were being honest about them. The result, as we know, is that more than 17m Brits gave the ‘establishment’ – or what they perceived it to be – a big kick up the arse.
Fast forward to 2026 and newly-minted UK prime minister Andy Burnham has put all options for UK-EU relations – including rejoining – back on the table.
The UK Treasury, which drew up the prophecies of doom, is now expected to publish a study analysing the potential economic benefits of Britain moving closer to the EU ahead of November’s EU-UK summit.
Personally, I think Brexit and the piecemeal trade and cooperation agreement that governs EU-UK trade has resulted in a small but significant economic hit.
The hope is that the treasury won’t promise milk, honey and gold-paved streets if the UK rejoins the EU or its single market.
If over-promising increases the speed at which voters get disappointed with governments, the Brexit vote is proof that trying to frighten people is the fastest way to lose an election.
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Russian diesel shipments are returning to Türkiye and Brazil after Moscow lifted its export ban and the US temporarily suspended sanctions on Russian fuel supplies, Reuters reported on 20 October, citing shipping data from Kpler and LSEG.
The resumption of exports gives Russia another source of revenue to support its war against Ukraine, allowing Moscow to profit from fuel sales despite the domestic shortages that prompted its export ban. The US sanctions relief is helping Russia restore access to international buyers while its full-scale invasion continues.
According to Reuters, at least two tankers carrying Russian diesel have departed the Baltic port of Primorsk for Türkiye and Brazil in recent days. Each vessel is carrying around 300,000 barrels, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Morocco has also resumed importing Russian diesel since the export ban was lifted.
Russia ended its self-imposed diesel export ban on 9 October after reaching a deal with US President Donald Trump to resume fuel supplies to global markets. Moscow had introduced the ban to address domestic shortages triggered by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries.
Those supply problems have not been resolved, but the US temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian fuel supplies as part of the deal, allowing Moscow to prioritize export opportunities despite domestic shortages. EU and UK embargoes on Russian fuel imports remain in force.
Russian diesel exports remain below last year's levels
Russian diesel exports averaged around 345,000 barrels per day in 2026 so far, down 41% from the previous year, according to shipping data cited by Reuters. Exports had already fallen during the summer before Moscow imposed its ban.
Türkiye accounted for around 34% of Russian diesel loadings this year, followed by Brazil at 24% and Morocco at 10%, Kpler data showed.
Trump said Russia would initially export 300,000 metric tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons afterward. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow could raise exports to as much as 3.5 million metric tons per month by the end of the year.
US seeks to ease diesel prices
The deal comes as Trump seeks to present a picture of bringing down diesel prices ahead of the US midterm elections on 3 November. Fuel prices have risen amid disruptions to global energy supplies caused by Trump's war with Iran, which has shaken oil markets and raised concerns about supply routes.
Trump has blamed Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure for driving up energy prices, despite the broader market disruption caused by his war with Iran. The Russian diesel deal offers a way to increase global fuel supplies, but also allows Moscow to earn revenue from exports while its war against Ukraine continues.
However, the volumes from Russia initially outlined by Trump would cover only a small share of the global supply shortfall.
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Trump says Russia agreed to supply millions of tons of diesel to US and global markets as he blames Ukraine for fuel price hikes driven by Iran war
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the US has restored intelligence sharing with Ukraine, including advance warnings of Russian ballistic missile launches, following talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The lack of advance warnings came amid reports that the Trump administration had threatened to suspend intelligence sharing and weapons supplies unless Kyiv halted attacks on Russian oil refineries. US intelligence usually alerts Ukraine to ballistic missile launches before air raid sirens sound, giving the country time to warn civilians and prepare its air defenses. Russian ballistic missiles can reach Kyiv within minutes, making early notice critical to protecting lives.
Zelenskyy made the announcement on 20 October during a press conference broadcast by Suspilne. He said he had spoken with Rubio earlier that morning while traveling to Oslo, discussing intelligence, Starlink satellite communications, missile interceptors, and Patriot air defense systems.
“We discussed sensitive issues, including Starlink, interceptors, which are very important, and intelligence. We were very specific; the conversation was very positive,” Zelenskyy said.
He added that he plans to speak with Rubio again within the next 48 hours.
On 18 October, Zelenskyy also said that US warnings had returned, which turned out not to be true as Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv that evening before air raid sirens sounded.
Kyiv went days without advance warnings of Russian missiles
The warning gaps began with Russian ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv on 12 October and continued through 19 October. During the attacks on 12 and 13 October, Ukraine received no advance warning from its partners, with air raid alerts sounding only after the attacks had begun.
The problem persisted during subsequent attacks. Overnight on 18–19 October, Russia attacked Kyiv in two waves. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said no warning arrived before the first wave, around 23:00. Information arrived before the second wave, around 03:00, but left little time to respond.
Advance intelligence on ballistic missile launches is particularly important because these missiles can reach their targets within minutes, leaving little time for civilians to seek shelter.
Washington denies suspending intelligence sharing
US President Donald Trump previously denied that Washington had stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, despite the missing warnings. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also rejected claims of a suspension, pointing to a software problem in Ukraine's early-warning system.
However, the disruptions came amid reports that the Trump administration had threatened to suspend intelligence sharing and weapons supplies unless Kyiv halted attacks on Russian oil refineries. The Financial Times reported that Washington was pressuring Ukraine to stop the strikes as part of efforts to secure an energy truce with Russia.
Ukraine temporarily paused attacks on Russian refineries but said Moscow continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Zelenskyy's latest statement indicates that advance ballistic missile warnings are reaching Ukraine again, although the recent gaps have raised questions about the reliability of a capability critical to protecting civilians.
US President Donald Trump said Russia has been “fine” toward Ukraine and suggested Kyiv should appoint someone else other than President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to negotiate on its behalf, even as Russian forces continue attacks across Ukraine and Washington faces questions over its support for Kyiv.
His comments came as Russia continues striking Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, with regular attacks killing civilians and damaging residential buildings and energy facilities. Russia has waged a violent war against Ukraine for more than 12 years, seeking to seize Ukrainian territory and undermine the country’s sovereignty, with widespread violence, grave human rights abuses, and killings of civilians throughout the conflict.
Speaking to reporters on 19 October, Trump said Zelenskyy should have settled the war long ago and could have secured a better deal by following his advice. He accused the Ukrainian president of not doing enough to end the war, claiming that Zelenskyy did not want to stop the fighting. Trump said he wanted the war to end and argued that Russia had “been fine” toward Ukraine, adding that Moscow “hasn’t been doing much.”
On the same day, a Russian drone struck a park near a cafe in Kharkiv Oblast, killing six people, including a 14-month-old girl killed in her stroller and an 11-year-old girl. Another 14 people were injured, including six children, according to Ukrainian officials.
14-month-old Anhelina, who was killed in a Russian attack on a park in Kharkiv Oblast. Her mother, Inna, later died in the hospital. 19 October 2026, Nova Vodolaha. Photo: National Police of Ukraine
Russian attacks intensify as Kyiv loses advance warnings
Russian attacks across Ukraine have intensified in recent months, with large-scale drone strikes, missile attacks, and repeated hits on energy infrastructure. The attacks have killed civilians, damaged homes and businesses, and disrupted electricity and other essential services.
Kyiv has faced repeated Russian ballistic missile attacks without the advance warnings Ukraine normally receives from international partners. The latest attack on 19 October again raised concerns about gaps in warning time, leaving residents with little time to reach shelter.
A building in Kyiv damaged in the Russian ballistic missile attack overnight on 19 October 2026. Photo: State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Kyiv
The repeated gaps have fueled concerns about Ukraine’s access to intelligence amid reports of restrictions on some US support. Ukrainian officials warned that missing launch data could weaken the country’s ability to detect incoming ballistic missiles, while Washington denied halting intelligence sharing.
Republicans push back against Trump's Russia policy
Trump's approach has drawn criticism from members of his own party, particularly over his decision to ease restrictions on Russian energy exports and his broader efforts to reach an agreement with Moscow, according to POLITICO.
Republican lawmakers have questioned whether easing pressure on Russia will help end the war or instead give the Kremlin additional revenue and leverage while its military continues attacking Ukraine. The dispute has exposed divisions within the party over how to handle Putin and the future of US support for Kyiv.
The sanctions relief followed a broader push toward economic engagement with Moscow. On 18 October, Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had urged Zelenskyy in September to consider restoring Russian gas transit through Ukraine as part of a potential peace deal.
The proposal would revive a trade that Europe has spent years reducing because of its dependence on Russian energy. Renewed Russian energy exports could provide Moscow with additional revenue while its war against Ukraine continues.
Pressure on Kyiv as Washington considers closer ties with Moscow
Trump's comments add to tensions between Washington and Kyiv over the terms of a potential peace agreement and the level of US support for Ukraine. His suggestion that Ukraine change its negotiator raises further questions about whether his administration is willing to accept Kyiv's position in talks over its own future.
Zelenskyy has urged Washington to maintain pressure on Moscow rather than offer economic concessions. Ukrainian officials have also called for continued military assistance, particularly air defense systems, as Russia continues its campaign against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.
The contrast between Trump's description of Russia's conduct and the situation on the ground remains stark. While Trump says Moscow has behaved relatively decently, Russian forces continue to launch attacks that kill civilians, damage homes, and threaten Ukraine's energy supply. The lack of advance warning before recent ballistic strikes on Kyiv has added to concerns about the consequences of reduced or unreliable US support.
MEPs have put themselves on a collision course with EU governments by rejecting plans for a 17-percent cut in foreign spending – instead demanding additional spending worth €25bn.
Earlier this month, the Irish government, which holds the six-month rotating EU council presidency, proposed that €38bn of cuts be made from the ‘Global Europe’ heading, which covers foreign aid, as part of an overall package of €141bn of cuts to the seven-year EU budget, known as the multi-annual financial framework (MFF).
But in a vote on Monday evening (19 October), the European Parliament’s development committee instead backed a dedicated minimum budget of €25bn for humanitarian aid, as well as dedicated budget lines for a Gaza reconstruction fund and for candidate countries. Put together, that would mean a €25bn increase on the EU Commission’s original budget of €200bn for the Global Europe heading.
The position agreed by MEPs, by a 61-to-34 vote margin, will eventually form the basis of negotiations between MEPs and ministers when EU governments agree their position on the budget.
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Elon Musk approached US President Donald Trump with a proposal to limit the speed of Starlink satellite communications in Ukraine, disrupting Kyiv’s ability to counter Russian drone attacks, The Telegraph reported on 16 October, citing four sources familiar with the discussions.
The restrictions had immediate consequences for Ukraine’s defenses, forcing some drone missions against Russian positions to be called off and threatening the ability to intercept Russian jet-powered drones as they targeted Ukrainian cities at the time.
According to The Telegraph, Trump agreed with Musk’s suggestion, paving the way for the Pentagon to impose restrictions on Starshield, the military-grade version of SpaceX’s satellite network used by Ukrainian forces.
The report contradicts Musk’s public claim that the US military and ultimately Trump were responsible for deciding any limits on the system. However, Trump denied that either he or Musk was responsible for Ukraine losing access, while an anonymous US official told AFP that the president had not requested the reduction in service.
The reported restrictions come amid tensions between Washington and Kyiv over Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. The episode has raised concerns about Ukraine’s dependence on privately controlled communications infrastructure and the risk that changes to US support could weaken its battlefield capabilities.
Starshield is the military-grade version of Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet network. It allows Ukrainian drone operators to maintain communications with aircraft moving at high speeds, supporting both defensive interception missions and strikes against Russian targets.
The speed limit imposed on Ukrainian drones using Starshield was around 160 kph, making it difficult for them to intercept Russian jet-powered drones and missiles traveling at roughly twice that speed.
According to The Telegraph, a senior source said Musk had become concerned about potential backlash from European consumers following the restrictions. A high-ranking European official and two Ukrainian sources reportedly corroborated the account that Musk and Trump were both involved in the decision.
The Pentagon has not publicly explained the restrictions. The report’s account also remains disputed: Trump said on 16 October that he did not believe either he or Musk was responsible for Ukraine losing access, while an anonymous US official cited by AFP said the president had not requested the reduction.
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“Trump and Musk must be held accountable”: US senator warns Starlink network failing over Ukraine could cripple its shield against Russian missiles and drones
Ukraine says Starshield capabilities are being restored
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 16 October that restrictions on SpaceX’s Starshield satellite communications system had disrupted several military operations, including efforts to intercept Russian jet-powered Geran drones attacking Ukrainian cities.
Zelenskyy said Ukraine did not use Starlink to support attacks inside Russia, but relied on the system to intercept drones targeting civilians, conduct mid-range strikes against Russian military targets in occupied Ukrainian territory, and deliver food and water to frontline troops using drones.
“When the speed was reduced, we were unable to intercept a certain number of jet-powered ‘shaheds,’ [Gerans - ed.]” Zelenskyy wrote on X, adding that Ukrainian forces had lost the ability to carry out some operations while the restrictions were in place.
Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s Defense Ministry was in contact with partners and had received signals from the White House that the capabilities would be restored. However, he stressed that speeds had not yet returned to their previous levels, although restoration was underway.
We don’t use Starlink for our responses inside Russia. We use Starlink to intercept jet-powered “shaheds” that attack our civilians and kill families.
Starlink wasn’t turned off – its speed was reduced. And when the speed was reduced, we were unable to intercept a certain number…
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 16, 2026
Europe warns against dependence on Musk’s network
The latest episode has renewed European concerns about relying on Musk and SpaceX for critical communications infrastructure. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned Musk on social media that European customers were watching his actions, The Telegraph reported.
The European Union is developing its own satellite communications system, IRIS², intended to provide an alternative to Starlink, according to The Telegraph. The system is planned to become operational by 2030, leaving Ukraine and European governments dependent on existing providers in the meantime.
The report adds to concerns that decisions made in Washington or by private technology providers could directly affect Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian attacks.
Belgium plans to deliver 10 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of 2026, Prime Minister Bart De Wever announced on 16 October, raising the expected number from three amid delays in transferring the aircraft.
The expanded commitment comes as Ukraine faces sustained Russian drone and missile attacks and needs additional combat aircraft to strengthen its air defenses.
De Wever made the announcement at a press conference in Brussels alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Anadolu Agency reported. He said Belgium’s deliveries had fallen behind schedule because its new US-made F-35 fighter jets arrived later than expected.
Belgium also discussed supplying more ammunition for Ukraine’s F-16s.
F-16 deliveries delayed by F-35 schedule
“We will deliver 10 this year,” De Wever said, explaining that delays in receiving Belgium’s F-35s had held up the transfer of its F-16s. The new aircraft are now beginning to arrive, allowing Belgium to move forward with deliveries to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy confirmed that Kyiv expects additional F-16s from Belgium by the end of the year and thanked Brussels for the agreement.
The announcement marks an increase from Belgium’s previously reported plan to send three F-16s to Ukraine by the end of 2026. The new figure would more than triple the number expected under that earlier commitment.
F-16s to help counter Russian jet-powered drones
De Wever said Ukraine urgently needs operational fighter jets and described the F-16 as one of the few weapons capable of effectively countering Russian jet-powered drones.
The aircraft can also intercept cruise missiles and other aerial targets, while carrying out electronic warfare and combat missions. Ukraine received its first F-16s in 2024 after allies agreed to supply the aircraft and train Ukrainian pilots.
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Belgium rushes three F-16s to Ukraine as Russia expands its drone and missile assault
Belgium discusses ammunition and financial support
Zelenskyy and De Wever also discussed supplying additional ammunition for Ukraine’s F-16s, including 20 mm rounds produced by Belgian defense company FN Herstal.
The leaders also reportedly discussed Ukraine’s financial needs, though neither provided details on potential next steps. Belgium remains at the center of discussions over frozen Russian assets, as Brussels hosts Euroclear, which holds a large share of the immobilized funds.
Ukraine has received undisclosed assistance from Poland as it struggles to defend against increasingly intense Russian drone and missile attacks, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hinted during a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Brussels on 15 October, Radio Svoboda reported.
Ukraine’s air defense needs are greater than at any point since 2022, as intensified Russian drone and missile attacks strain existing systems and expose shortages of interceptor missiles. With US support increasingly uncertain amid tensions between Kyiv and Washington, European military aid is becoming more critical to Ukraine’s ability to defend its cities and infrastructure.
Zelenskyy thanked Warsaw for its support, suggesting that some assistance had to remain confidential. He also specifically mentioned 20 mm ammunition, which Ukraine needs to defend its cities against Russian attacks.
“Sometimes this has to stay between the two of us,” Zelenskyy said, thanking Tusk for the aid.
European support increasingly important amid US rift
Ukraine is facing mounting pressure on its air defenses as Russia increases the scale of its aerial attacks. Ukrainian forces are also struggling with shortages of interceptor missiles, particularly Patriot missiles needed to counter Russian ballistic strikes, leaving the country vulnerable to further attacks.
The need for additional support comes amid growing uncertainty over US assistance under President Donald Trump. Washington has taken steps that have strained ties with Kyiv, including easing some restrictions on Russian fuel and pressing for an energy ceasefire that Ukraine says Russia has continued to violate.
Recent disruptions to US-linked intelligence and satellite support have also raised concerns about Ukraine's ability to detect and counter Russian attacks.
As uncertainty over Washington's role grows, European military assistance is becoming increasingly important for Ukraine's defense.
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White House ordered limits on Ukraine’s military satellite service — Reuters. Who made the decision remains unclear
Defense cooperation continues despite political tensions
Tusk reaffirmed Poland's commitment to supporting Ukraine, saying Kyiv could count on Poland and the European Union. He also opposed easing EU sanctions against Russia, arguing that Europe should not take steps that help Moscow finance its war.
The meeting also came amid strained relations between Kyiv and Warsaw over historical disputes. However, Poland's government has maintained that these disagreements should not undermine military support for Ukraine, whose ability to resist Russian aggression is closely tied to Poland's own security.
Europe’s trade deficit with China reached a record $34.8bn [€31bn] in September, as EU leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday (15 October) to discuss Europe’s competitiveness agenda and what they call “macroeconomic imbalances” — a euphemism to avoid mentioning China by name.
EU heads of state and government are expected to give a mandate to the EU Commission to propose a set of trade defence measures and tools to reduce the EU’s reliance on Chinese industry, based on a new Franco-German blueprint, as a united front spreads across the bloc.
There was a move towards a “surprising unitary position” on Beijing among member states, said an EU diplomat, ahead of a two-day summit in Brussels which began on Thursday (15 October).
A joint letter and policy paper submitted by French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Friedrich Merz to commission president Ursula von der Leyen last week was viewed by many EU diplomats as marking a decisive shift towards a more consolidated EU stance on trade relations with China.
“For a long time, there were significant differences between these two countries on how to deal with China, how to address the economic situation,” parliament president Roberta Metsola told reporters on Thursday.
The diplomat added that the commission’s trade diversification package, designed to reduce the bloc’s reliance on Chinese industrial inputs and curb Chinese exports, will be presented by the end of the year and will be based on the Franco-German paper.
But the commission, for its part, has downplayed the prospect of rapid progress to EU-Chinese trade statistics. “It’s an issue which is not going to be solved in a couple of months,” said one official.
‘Be ready for escalation’ but do nothing
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A backlash is building against an EU ‘omnibus’ bill that seeks to make it easier to authorise and use pesticides across the bloc.
MEPs are still yet to set a date to vote on the European Commission’s proposal to extend how long pesticide active substances can stay approved in the EU, amid a series of protest letters from scientists, UN health experts, and divisions among member states.
EI parliament’s environment and agriculture committees were originally expected to hold a joint vote on a compromise text on 5 October, but shelved that date without proposing another as this article went to publication.
Sustained criticism has come from the scientific community.
Last month, a group of more than 500 scientists signed an open letter to the commission on 16 September demanding a pause on the file pending “an independent assessment, whether carried out by parliament’s own research service or by an equivalent independent body.”
They warned that the commission’s plan to extend grace periods for products withdrawn on safety grounds, widen derogations for hazardous substances, and restrict the use of the latest independent scientific evidence “seem difficult to reconcile with the precautionary principle and with obligations to respect, protect and fulfil human rights, including the rights of peasants and other people working in rural areas”.
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Belgium’s foreign minister has called on the EU to deepen its economic, trade, and defence ties with Turkey, amid concerns from Ankara that it risks being shut out of the bloc’s new rules on industrial supply chains and multi-billion euro defence procurement scheme.
Speaking at a Turkey-EU business forum in Brussels on Tuesday (13 October), Belgian foreign minister Maxime Pévot said that European manufacturers were increasingly looking for reliable partners closer to home as they seek to reduce their reliance on Chinese inputs.
“We should make values of its proximity, particularly in sectors where Europe needs to reduce strategic dependencies,” he added.
“Our economic relationship should no longer be limited to buying and selling goods. We should also be developing, producing, and investing together,” he said.
For his part, following talks with Ankara’s trade minister, Ömer Bolat, EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič told reporters that the two sides had agreed on reforms to Turkey’s import control system to make the system easier for EU exporters to use and a mutual recognition pact on trusted traders.
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Getting co-decision powers on the budget, finally enshrined in the Lisbon Treaty after more than a decade of inter-institutional battles, was one of the European Parliament’s big wins.
The challenge facing MEPs in the coming months is whether they are really going to use those powers on the 2028-34 budget.
The early signs are that they are spoiling for a fight. The Irish government’s compromise proposal tabled on Saturday (10 October) – an 8 percent cut worth €141bn to the European Commission’s spending plan – isn’t exactly butchery.
But it does display a startling lack of ambition, in particular on the raft of ‘own resources’ proposed by MEPs to make the budget process less vulnerable to member states wanting to reduce or at least freeze their annual contributions
This time round, MEPs have proposed a digital services levy, an online gambling levy, and a levy on crypto-asset capital gains.
Put together the parliament reckons that these new taxes could bring an additional €30bn to the EU’s budget, on top of the €57.4bn that the EU commission believes can be raised from other levies, such as the emissions trading scheme and the carbon border levy.
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The Irish government has set the path for a showdown between MEPs and governments over the next seven year EU budget after proposing an 8 percent cut worth €141bn to the European Commission’s spending plan.
Savings from the commission proposal have been found across all headings in the so-called ‘negotiating box’ for the 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). But farmers’ subsidies under the common agricultural policy and the bloc’s cohesion policy, which provides funding to the EU’s poorest regions, have been exempted from any cuts.
That is a nod to a sustained lobbying effort by a group of seventeen EU countries, known as ‘Friends of Cohesion’.
As expected, meanwhile, cuts totalling €38bn have been made from the ‘Global Europe’ heading, which covers foreign aid, while €75bn has been taken from the competitiveness fund and €10bn from the EU’s administrative costs.
In a statement on Saturday (10 October), Ireland’s minister for Europe, Thomas Byrne, said that the €1.62 trillion spending plan was “intended to bridge the many differences between Member States. It brings us closer to resolving the critical questions our Union faces on how to balance both new priorities and core policies, whilst also reflecting the fiscal realities that all Member States face.”
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EU and Chinese officials agreed a series of trade concessions covering electric cars, rare earths and tariffs that dragged them away from a damaging trade war on Friday (9 October), following two days of crisis talks.
Following two days of talks in Beijing, EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said that he and China’s commerce secretary Wang Wentao had made a “crucial first step” towards rebalancing EU-China trade relations.
Europe can point to progress on hybrid vehicles, stronger assurances over the supply of critical raw materials, and continued engagement on market access issues in China.
Hours before Šefčovič arrived, Beijing rejected an EU demand for so-called “voluntary export restrictions” on its electric vehicles (EVs). However, in a joint statement on Friday, the two sides said that they had reached an “understanding on trade in hybrid vehicles in a WTO compliant manner”, but without providing further details.
They added that further negotiations on reducing tariffs and minimum pricing deals would allow Chinese EVs to enter the EU at a lower duty rate.
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Persuading China that its €1bn daily trade surplus with the EU is not sustainable was always going to be a hard sell for EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič.
And the early signs are that Šefčovič’s two days of talks with Chinese commerce secretary Wang Wentao, which conclude on Friday (9 October), are not going to deliver the breakthrough demanded by EU leaders when they gather for a summit in Brussels next week.
“The message around the table was clear: the need to improve access to the Chinese market, while boosting our economic security,” Šefčovič posted on X ahead of the first day of talks.
But rhetoric aside, three months after the EU Commission set up a series of ‘work streams’ with Chinese officials, with a mandate to address the multi-layered EU-Sino trade dispute, it is hard to see much tangible progress.
Hours before Šefčovič arrived, Beijing rejected an EU demand for so-called “voluntary export restrictions” on its electric vehicles (EVs).
In August, data published by Schmidt Automotive Research found that 14 percent of EV sales across Europe this year were Chinese-made, up from 9.4 percent last year.
That is despite the EU imposing additional tariffs of between 17 and 36 percent on Chinese EVs in October 2024.
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European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has joined MEPs in urging the bloc’s governments not to gut the EU’s next seven-year budget, as talks on spending reach a critical phase.
The commission has proposed a budget worth just under €2 trillion, equivalent to 1.26 percent of the EU’s gross national income, a small increase on the previous seven year spending plan. But the so-called ‘frugal’ group of countries, led by Germany, have demanded hefty cuts, complaining that they are contributing too much.
“Having no new financial framework is by far the most financially advantageous solution for Germany,” chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Monday.
But 17 EU countries from Southern and Eastern Europe signed a joint letter last week, demanding that farmers’ subsidies via the Common Agricultural Policy are maintained, as well as spending across the EU’s poorest regions, known as cohesion policy
During a press conference on Tuesday, Siegfried Muresan, the Romanian centre-right MEP who is co-leading parliament’s negotiating team on the seven-year budget with Portuguese socialist and democrat Claudia Tavares, said that there was “still time” for the Irish presidency to avoid proposing “unjustified cuts” that “would make Europe weaker and severely undermine the institutional cooperation between parliament and council.”
Though Muresan conceded that governments did not want to increase their national contributions, “there is a way out”, he said.
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Having said several months ago that he had no intention of a ‘rerun’ of the Brexit debate, UK prime minister Andy Burnham told Labour delegates at the party’s annual conference in Liverpool last week that nothing should be off the table as far as EU-UK relations are concerned.
Brexit had “done more harm than good”, he said, adding that “we will not give Britain the clear path we need into the rest of the century until we decide on a long-term relationship with what is still our largest market.”
In fact, Britain could “go all the way” back into the EU, said Burnham.
The new prime minister is still enjoying something of a honeymoon period. His Labour party now tops the opinion polls, albeit by less than 30 percent, and his early policy announcements on nationalising utilities and pension reform are the most radical in a generation.
Even so, Burnham’s remarks were a surprise that left pro-European columnists positively giddy with optimism over the weekend.
In truth, rejoining the EU – if it happens – would probably take a decade.
Burnham didn’t offer any timetable or any other specifics, and has said that no moves towards EU membership would be taken before the next UK election due in 2029. And talk of rejoining the EU is not purely borne out of pro-European enthusiasm.
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The Trump administration came perilously close to launching another bombing campaign against Yemen this weekend. According to a September 20 New York Times report, US commanders had approved their targets, American troops were loading bombs onto warplanes, and an attack on Yemen’s Ansar Allah forces was about to begin when President Trump abruptly reversed course. […]
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the United States spent $21 trillion on its military between 2001 and 2024 (in constant 2024 dollars), equal to the combined military spending of the next eighteen countries. Iran barely made that list at all, spending only 2% of what the US did, and SIPRI estimated […]
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