Ukrainian missiles reportedly struck a factory in the city of Oryol on 23 October, with OSINT projects reporting that the target was the Proton electronics plant, which produces components used in Russian weapons systems.

The strike comes amid Ukraine’s broader campaign to target Russian military production facilities and other infrastructure supporting Moscow’s war against Ukraine. Ukrainian strikes on such facilities aim to weaken Russia’s ability to manufacture and maintain the weapons it uses in its invasion.

The plant reportedly supplies electronic components for Iskander-M ballistic missiles, which Russia regularly uses to attack Ukrainian cities, as well as other weapons systems, including the Pantsir-S1 air defense system. 

The strike could disrupt production supporting Russia’s war effort. Photos show extensive damage to the building. Information about casualties remains unclear. 

Reports say a Ukrainian missile strike hit the Proton electronics plant in Russia’s Oryol on 23 October.

The facility reportedly produces components for Iskander-M ballistic missiles used in attacks on Ukrainian cities, as well as other Russian weapons systems.

Exilenova+… pic.twitter.com/nbqGPJ8EJj

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 23, 2026

Plant reportedly produces components for Russian weapons

Proton JSC manufactures semiconductor devices, LEDs, and electronic components for industrial and specialized equipment. According to Exilenova+, the plant’s products are used in the production of Iskander-M ballistic missiles, S-71 Kover missiles, and the Pantsir-S1 air defense system.

Exilenova+ reported that the plant was struck by Storm Shadow cruise missiles. The weapon type has not been independently confirmed, and the extent of damage to the facility remains unknown.

Russian authorities confirm strike on factory

Oryol Oblast Governor Andrey Klychkov announced a missile threat in the region before reporting that missiles had struck a factory in Oryol’s Sovetsky District, according to Liga.net.

Residents reported explosions, a fire in one part of the city, and columns of smoke rising over Oryol, according to local reports cited by OSINT projects Exilenova+, Supernova, and Astra.

A Russian drone strike sank the Comoros-flagged cargo ship Khoryv in the Black Sea near Romania’s port of Constanța on 23 October, killing a Ukrainian sailor and leaving three crew members missing. Nine others were rescued, Digi24 reported.

The sinking comes amid a surge in attacks on commercial shipping near Romania and Bulgaria, threatening civilian crews and routes used to transport Ukrainian agricultural exports. As Russia intensifies strikes on Ukrainian ports and shipping, the Danube corridor and nearby waters have become increasingly important to Ukraine’s maritime trade.

Romanian President Nicușor Dan blamed Russia for the attack, describing it as part of Moscow’s escalation of the war against Ukraine and its attacks on NATO’s eastern flank, Reuters reported. 

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry confirmed to Radio Svoboda that a Ukrainian citizen was among those killed.

Ukrainian sailor killed, three crew members missing

The Khoryv sent a distress signal at around 10 a.m. local time, about 13 nautical miles (24 kilometers) east of Constanța, just outside Romania’s territorial waters, Digi24 reported. The vessel caught fire, sustained major damage, and capsized, with only a small part of its hull remaining visible above the water.

Romania’s naval authority said 13 crew members were aboard: 10 Ukrainians and three Azerbaijanis. Rescue teams recovered nine sailors alive and one body, while three crew members remained missing, Reuters reported.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said the vessel had been traveling from a Turkish port and confirmed that the Ukrainian Embassy in Romania had received information from Romanian authorities about one Ukrainian sailor’s death. Four Ukrainian survivors, including the captain, were taken to a hospital, while two others did not require medical assistance.

Attacks threaten Black Sea shipping

The sinking comes amid a surge in attacks on commercial vessels off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria. At least seven cargo ships have been hit over the past two weeks, with around 30 sailors reported dead or missing, according to Reuters.

The vessels targeted in recent incidents were either anchored near or heading toward the Sulina Canal, which connects the Danube River to the Black Sea. The canal has become a key export route for Ukraine, one of the world’s largest exporters of grain and vegetable oils.

Ukraine has increasingly relied on Danube ports and routes through Romanian territorial waters as Russia attacks its own Black Sea ports. Strikes on commercial vessels threaten crews and risk disrupting Ukrainian agricultural exports to international markets.

Russia has intensified attacks on Ukrainian ports and ships traveling to or from Ukraine. Moscow has described its strikes on vessels as retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on Russian or Russia-linked ships.

NATO plans stronger Black Sea surveillance

NATO said on 20 October it would send additional maritime patrol aircraft, radar systems, and drones to the Black Sea following the attacks on commercial shipping, according to Reuters. The alliance has not specified which capabilities it will deploy.

Romania, Ukraine, and Bulgaria have called on NATO to do more to protect commercial vessels. The latest sinking adds urgency to those calls as attacks increasingly affect shipping near NATO territory.

The latest incident highlights the growing risks to commercial shipping as Russia’s war against Ukraine increasingly affects maritime traffic beyond Ukraine’s own coastline.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has warned that disruptions to global shipping routes could trigger famine in vulnerable countries, citing Russian attacks on Black Sea shipping as part of the wider threat to international food supplies.

Russia has increasingly targeted civilian shipping in the Black Sea as part of its campaign against Ukraine’s maritime trade, striking cargo vessels, port infrastructure, and ships transporting agricultural goods. The attacks threaten Ukraine’s ability to export grain to global markets, raise risks for international shipping companies, and jeopardize food supplies in countries that rely on Ukrainian agricultural exports.

Speaking ahead of a meeting of foreign ministers in Istanbul on Friday, 23 October, Wadephul said attacks and threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea were disrupting trade in food and fertilizers, DW reported. The impact extends far beyond the conflict zones, threatening countries that depend on imported wheat and agricultural inputs.

Wadephul said fertilizer shortages could threaten basic agricultural production in poorer countries, where access to imported food and farming supplies is already limited. He also pointed to Türkiye, the world’s largest wheat-processing country, as vulnerable to disruptions in the supply of grain.

Russian attacks disrupt Ukraine’s grain exports

Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and civilian cargo ships, disrupting a maritime corridor that carries most of the country’s agricultural exports. In July, Russian strikes brought traffic through the corridor close to a standstill during the harvest season, leaving grain with fewer routes to international markets.

The attacks have also hit foreign-flagged vessels carrying or preparing to load Ukrainian grain. On 16 October, Euromaidan Press reported that Russian attacks had sunk merchant ships and damaged others in the Black Sea region, with seafarers missing. The campaign has increased risks for shipping companies and reduced the routes available for Ukrainian exports.

Ukraine is a major supplier of wheat and other agricultural commodities to global markets, including countries in the Middle East and Africa. Disruptions to its exports can tighten global supplies and push prices higher, adding pressure on countries that depend on imported grain.

Wadephul made the remarks ahead of a meeting of foreign ministers in Istanbul, where he said countries must send a signal that they will not accept Iran or Yemen’s Houthi militia holding global trade hostage. He called for an end to indiscriminate attacks on shipping and neighboring countries, warning that prolonged insecurity puts vulnerable populations at greater risk of hunger.

His remarks place Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian shipping within a wider pattern of threats to key maritime trade routes, with consequences for food security far beyond the regions directly affected.

Austria has ordered four Russian diplomats to leave the country over suspected espionage, declaring them persona non grata following findings by Austrian security authorities, Austrian media outlet Heute reported on 23 October.

The expulsions come as European countries step up efforts to counter suspected Russian intelligence operations amid Moscow’s war against Ukraine. Three of the diplomats worked at the Russian Embassy in Vienna, while the fourth served in Russia’s delegation to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which is headquartered in Vienna. 

Austria’s Foreign Ministry said the four had engaged in “activities incompatible with their diplomatic status,” a term usually used for spying, Reuters reported. It did not disclose details of the alleged activities or the intelligence findings behind the decision.

The three embassy diplomats were declared persona non grata under Article 9 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. The fourth, who worked on military security and arms control at Russia’s OSCE delegation, was also ordered to leave Austria. 

Vienna remains a hub for Russian intelligence

The latest expulsions bring the number of Russian diplomats Austria has expelled since 2020 to 18, according to Reuters. In May 2026, Austria expelled three Russian Embassy employees suspected of using antennas on diplomatic buildings to intercept satellite internet data transmitted by international organizations based in Vienna. 

Vienna’s concentration of international organizations, including the OSCE and United Nations agencies, has made it a key location for intelligence activity. A 2024 report by The Wall Street Journal, described Vienna as a major Russian spy hub for operations targeting Western countries, including surveillance of arms supplies to Ukraine.

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Dmitry Lyubinsky said Moscow’s response to the expulsions was unavoidable, according to Russian state news agency TASS, AP reported.

Moldova declared a Russian embassy staff member persona non grata on 23 October after a Russian Geran attack drone violated its airspace and crashed near homes and an energy facility, Moldovan President Maia Sandu said.

The incident highlights how Russia’s attacks on Ukraine are increasingly threatening neighboring Moldova, where Russian drones have repeatedly crossed the border or crashed during strikes. Moldova recorded 39 Russian drone incursions in the first eight months of 2026, compared with 17 in all of 2025, Sandu said in September.

Moldova’s Defense Ministry said its Air Operations Center detected an unauthorized drone flight at 13:59 on 23 October. The drone crossed from the direction of Ukraine’s Vinnytsia Oblast toward Frunzeuca in Moldova’s Camenca district, in the Russian-backed breakaway region of Transnistria.

The drone disappeared from monitoring screens near Pepeni in Sîngerei district at 14:10, briefly reappeared, and then disappeared again near Meșeni in Rezina district, the ministry said.

Sandu condemned the incursion, saying Russia’s war continues to put Moldovan lives at risk. She said the drone had fallen near family homes and an energy facility.

Moldovan police reported finding the crashed drone near the village of Chiștelnița in Telenești district, less than 100 meters from a home. No casualties were reported. Police cordoned off the area and sent explosives specialists to examine the wreckage.

Russia's war keeps putting Moldovan lives at risk. Today, a Russian Geran attack drone violated our airspace and fell near family homes and an energy facility.

We condemn this latest dangerous act. In response, we have declared a Russian embassy staff member persona non grata.

— Maia Sandu (@sandumaiamd) October 23, 2026

Moldova steps up diplomatic response

Sandu said Moldova had condemned the incident and declared a Russian embassy staff member persona non grata. She did not identify the staff member or specify when they must leave the country.

The move follows repeated Russian drone incursions. In September, a Russian drone crossing Moldova’s airspace disrupted seven flights, including one involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, prompting temporary airspace restrictions.

Earlier in October, three Russian missiles and two drones crossed into Moldovan airspace and exploded on Moldovan territory during Russian attacks on neighboring Ukraine, prompting Chisinau to condemn the violations. Debris fell across several districts, damaging windows at an agricultural facility and sparking fires in fields. Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatîi said the country was seeking stronger air defenses to counter the growing threat.

Moldova has limited air defense capabilities and has been working with European partners to strengthen them. Sandu has said the country’s existing equipment can mainly protect individual sites, while the government seeks broader coverage and faster warning systems. The EU has provided €120 million for Moldova to purchase a medium-range air defense system.

Moldovan authorities urged residents not to approach or touch the crashed drone or any fragments, and to call emergency services if they find suspicious objects.

Ukraine has received more than 50,000 rounds of 20-mm ammunition from Denmark for the onboard cannons of its F-16 fighter jets, with Ukrainian pilots already using the rounds to intercept Russian jet-powered Geran attack drones, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said.

The accelerated delivery addresses a key need in Ukraine’s air defense as Russia increasingly deploys faster jet-powered drones that challenge conventional interceptors. Ukraine has also relied on F-16 cannons when stocks of air-to-air missiles are limited, making ammunition supplies important to keeping the aircraft effective against incoming aerial threats.

Denmark responds to ammunition request

The Defense Ministry thanked Denmark for responding quickly to Ukraine’s request for additional ammunition, saying the delivery directly strengthens the country’s air defenses and helps protect civilians from Russian aerial attacks.

The delivery follows a broader effort by Ukraine’s European partners to replenish F-16 cannon ammunition. On October 2, it was reported that Spain, Belgium, and Poland were also sending 20-mm rounds for Ukrainian F-16s to counter Russia’s jet-powered drones.

Belgium is also expanding its support for Ukraine’s F-16 fleet. On 16 October, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever pledged to deliver 10 F-16s by the end of 2026, up from three previously planned, and discussed supplying additional ammunition, including 20-mm rounds produced by Belgian defense company FN Herstal.

Jet-powered drones pose a growing challenge

Russia’s faster attack drones are harder to intercept than older, propeller-driven Shahed-type models. Their speed gives air defenders less time to respond and makes them more difficult for many interceptor drones and conventional short-range weapons to catch.

Ukraine’s air-to-air missile shortages have also increased the importance of F-16 cannon ammunition. Ukrainian pilots have sometimes relied on their aircraft’s built-in 20-mm cannon when air-to-air missiles are scarce.

The threat from jet-powered drones is growing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in late September that Ukraine was intercepting about 55% of Russia’s jet-powered drones, compared with more than 90% of older models.

Denmark’s ammunition delivery gives Ukrainian F-16 pilots more rounds to engage these faster targets, as Ukraine works to strengthen its defenses against Russia’s expanding drone campaign.

US First Lady Melania Trump has secured an agreement for a localized ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, to allow humanitarian aid deliveries and civilian evacuations to begin on 29 October, the White House announced on 23 October.

The proposed truce comes after months of worsening conditions in Oleshky, where Russian restrictions have left residents without reliable access to food, drinking water, medicine, and medical care. Ukrainian officials and international monitors have called for a humanitarian corridor as civilians face hunger, landmines, and regular attacks, with residents unable to leave safely.

Update: Ukraine launches humanitarian mission to occupied Oleshky after US-mediated agreement

Update 21:31: Ukraine’s Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets announced the launch of a humanitarian mission to Russian-occupied Oleshky in Kherson Oblast, saying an agreement had been signed following negotiations coordinated by the US side, with mediation by US First Lady Melania Trump. 

The agreement provides for several stages, including preparations for a ceasefire, clearing routes of mines, delivering humanitarian aid, and unblocking evacuation routes. 

Lubinets said his office had been raising the alarm about the looming humanitarian catastrophe in Oleshky since late February 2026 and would report on each stage of the mission.

Ceasefire aims to open evacuation route

According to the White House, Trump and her representative worked directly with Russian and Ukrainian leadership to agree on the ceasefire's terms, timing, and procedures. Civilian representatives from both countries are expected to visit residents to assess their needs, while those wishing to leave will receive transportation to their preferred destination.

The White House said an American media organization would accompany the teams to document the process and help ensure families' wishes are respected.

Trump said she initiated discussions after learning about the crisis during a private conversation at an event in New York during the 81st United Nations General Assembly. She said the agreement also involves technical preparations, including demining.

Oleshky residents face hunger and isolation

Oleshky, on the Russian-occupied left bank of the Dnipro River, had around 24,000 residents before Russia's full-scale invasion. Recent estimates put the remaining population at roughly 1,700 to 2,000, including about 50 children.

Residents face severe food and medicine shortages, while Russian forces have restricted movement and attacked vehicles attempting to deliver humanitarian supplies. Ukrainian officials have also said Russian troops have seized food parcels delivered by Ukrainian drones and detained or beaten some residents who received them.

The crisis has drawn growing international attention. Pope Leo XIV appealed to Russian leader Vladimir Putin for a truce to allow aid deliveries and safe civilian evacuations, while Ukraine's human rights ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets, said on 18 October that negotiations over a ceasefire and evacuation had advanced to the stage of agreeing on final details.

The White House announcement sets 29 October as the start date for the localized ceasefire. Its implementation will determine whether aid can reach residents and civilians can leave safely after months of isolation.

Ukraine has brought home 270 people from Russian captivity, including 261 military personnel and nine civilians, in the third stage of a prisoner exchange process that began on 19 August, Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War said on 23 October.

Amid Russia’s full-scale invasion, prisoner exchanges remain one of the few channels of communication between Kyiv and Moscow. But with thousands of Ukrainian military personnel and civilians still held in Russian captivity, each swap brings home only a fraction of those awaiting release, while negotiations remain tied to the difficult process of securing the return of captives on both sides.

Most of those released today had been held since 2022, including many defenders of Mariupol. Five survivors of the July 2022 Russian attack on the Olenivka prison barracks are also among those returning home.

The exchange also included American Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old English teacher from Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, who was illegally captured in 2022, then sentenced and tortured by Russia, according to the Coordination Headquarters.

Ukraine brought 270 people home from Russian captivity, including 261 military personnel and 9 civilians.

Most had been held since 2022, including defenders of Mariupol. Five survivors of Russia’s Olenivka prison attack and American teacher Stephen Hubbard are also among those… pic.twitter.com/Uyl8kz64W1

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 23, 2026

Exchange includes soldiers held for up to eight years

The exchange included members of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, National Guard, State Border Guard Service, and other security and defense units, as well as a State Emergency Service rescuer. Thirty-eight of the released military personnel are officers.

According to Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets, the exchange was “historic” because it brought home the largest number of Ukrainian military personnel sentenced by Russia: 86 who had been sentenced and one who had faced criminal prosecution.

Two of those released had been held since 2018 and 2020, spending eight and six years in captivity, respectively.

“The priorities remain unchanged: we bring home those who have been in captivity the longest, the seriously ill, and the seriously wounded,” Lubinets said, adding that efforts to return civilians and people held since 2014 also remain a priority.

Nine seriously ill prisoners among those released

Nine of the returning service members are seriously ill, and some are in critical condition, the Coordination Headquarters said. The youngest person released is 24, while the oldest is 63.

Many of those released had faced criminal prosecution in Russia and been sentenced on what Ukraine describes as fabricated charges, including life imprisonment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said most of those returning had been captured in 2022, and many had defended Mariupol. 

The released also include service members who fought in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Chernihiv directions, as well as defenders of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant.

“We remember every man and woman and continue searching for everyone,” Zelenskyy said.

US and UAE thanked for assistance

Ukraine thanked the United States and the United Arab Emirates for helping secure the releases. 

All those released will undergo medical examinations, receive treatment and financial support, and take part in rehabilitation and reintegration programs after prolonged captivity.

Ukraine’s military intelligence chief and head of the Coordination Headquarters, Oleh Ivashchenko, said the return followed months of negotiations. He stressed that efforts to establish the fate of missing Ukrainians and bring everyone home would continue.

The 23 October exchange follows the previous stage on 19 August, when Ukraine brought home 103 servicemembers from Russian captivity.

Gov. Kathy Hochul’s vision for New York has been largely shaped by her upbringing in a failing western New York town and her family’s move up from a trailer park to affluence.

© Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times

Ten years ago, ‘Project Fear’ was at the heart of the ‘Remain’ campaign’s inept efforts to persuade Britons not to vote to leave the EU. 

Voting for Brexit, according to David Cameron’s government Doomsday forecasts, would cost every household £4,300 (€5,000) per year from 2030, lead to an immediate recession and mean lower house prices. 

It was a huge mistake. That all the pro-EU camp could say about being members of the club was that it would be very expensive to leave was a jarring admission of failure. And the promised economic apocalypse of instant recession and house price warnings didn’t happen. Most people simply didn’t believe the figures or that the politicians behind them were being honest about them. The result, as we know, is that more than 17m Brits gave the ‘establishment’ – or what they perceived it to be – a big kick up the arse. 

Fast forward to 2026 and newly-minted UK prime minister Andy Burnham has put all options for UK-EU relations – including rejoining – back on the table. 

The UK Treasury, which drew up the prophecies of doom, is now expected to publish a study analysing the potential economic benefits of Britain moving closer to the EU ahead of November’s EU-UK summit.

Personally, I think Brexit and the piecemeal trade and cooperation agreement that governs EU-UK trade has resulted in a small but significant economic hit.

The hope is that the treasury won’t promise milk, honey and gold-paved streets if the UK rejoins the EU or its single market.  

If over-promising increases the speed at which voters get disappointed with governments, the Brexit vote is proof that trying to frighten people is the fastest way to lose an election.  

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Russian diesel shipments are returning to Türkiye and Brazil after Moscow lifted its export ban and the US temporarily suspended sanctions on Russian fuel supplies, Reuters reported on 20 October, citing shipping data from Kpler and LSEG.

The resumption of exports gives Russia another source of revenue to support its war against Ukraine, allowing Moscow to profit from fuel sales despite the domestic shortages that prompted its export ban. The US sanctions relief is helping Russia restore access to international buyers while its full-scale invasion continues.

According to Reuters, at least two tankers carrying Russian diesel have departed the Baltic port of Primorsk for Türkiye and Brazil in recent days. Each vessel is carrying around 300,000 barrels, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Morocco has also resumed importing Russian diesel since the export ban was lifted.

Russia ended its self-imposed diesel export ban on 9 October after reaching a deal with US President Donald Trump to resume fuel supplies to global markets. Moscow had introduced the ban to address domestic shortages triggered by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries.

Those supply problems have not been resolved, but the US temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian fuel supplies as part of the deal, allowing Moscow to prioritize export opportunities despite domestic shortages. EU and UK embargoes on Russian fuel imports remain in force.

Russian diesel exports remain below last year's levels

Russian diesel exports averaged around 345,000 barrels per day in 2026 so far, down 41% from the previous year, according to shipping data cited by Reuters. Exports had already fallen during the summer before Moscow imposed its ban.

Türkiye accounted for around 34% of Russian diesel loadings this year, followed by Brazil at 24% and Morocco at 10%, Kpler data showed.

Trump said Russia would initially export 300,000 metric tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons afterward. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow could raise exports to as much as 3.5 million metric tons per month by the end of the year.

US seeks to ease diesel prices

The deal comes as Trump seeks to present a picture of bringing down diesel prices ahead of the US midterm elections on 3 November. Fuel prices have risen amid disruptions to global energy supplies caused by Trump's war with Iran, which has shaken oil markets and raised concerns about supply routes.

Trump has blamed Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure for driving up energy prices, despite the broader market disruption caused by his war with Iran. The Russian diesel deal offers a way to increase global fuel supplies, but also allows Moscow to earn revenue from exports while its war against Ukraine continues.

However, the volumes from Russia initially outlined by Trump would cover only a small share of the global supply shortfall. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the US has restored intelligence sharing with Ukraine, including advance warnings of Russian ballistic missile launches, following talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The lack of advance warnings came amid reports that the Trump administration had threatened to suspend intelligence sharing and weapons supplies unless Kyiv halted attacks on Russian oil refineries. US intelligence usually alerts Ukraine to ballistic missile launches before air raid sirens sound, giving the country time to warn civilians and prepare its air defenses. Russian ballistic missiles can reach Kyiv within minutes, making early notice critical to protecting lives.

Zelenskyy made the announcement on 20 October during a press conference broadcast by Suspilne. He said he had spoken with Rubio earlier that morning while traveling to Oslo, discussing intelligence, Starlink satellite communications, missile interceptors, and Patriot air defense systems.

“We discussed sensitive issues, including Starlink, interceptors, which are very important, and intelligence. We were very specific; the conversation was very positive,” Zelenskyy said.

He added that he plans to speak with Rubio again within the next 48 hours.

On 18 October, Zelenskyy also said that US warnings had returned, which turned out not to be true as Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv that evening before air raid sirens sounded.

Kyiv went days without advance warnings of Russian missiles

The warning gaps began with Russian ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv on 12 October and continued through 19 October. During the attacks on 12 and 13 October, Ukraine received no advance warning from its partners, with air raid alerts sounding only after the attacks had begun.

The problem persisted during subsequent attacks. Overnight on 18–19 October, Russia attacked Kyiv in two waves. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said no warning arrived before the first wave, around 23:00. Information arrived before the second wave, around 03:00, but left little time to respond.

Advance intelligence on ballistic missile launches is particularly important because these missiles can reach their targets within minutes, leaving little time for civilians to seek shelter.

Washington denies suspending intelligence sharing

US President Donald Trump previously denied that Washington had stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, despite the missing warnings. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also rejected claims of a suspension, pointing to a software problem in Ukraine's early-warning system. 

However, the disruptions came amid reports that the Trump administration had threatened to suspend intelligence sharing and weapons supplies unless Kyiv halted attacks on Russian oil refineries. The Financial Times reported that Washington was pressuring Ukraine to stop the strikes as part of efforts to secure an energy truce with Russia. 

Ukraine temporarily paused attacks on Russian refineries but said Moscow continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Zelenskyy's latest statement indicates that advance ballistic missile warnings are reaching Ukraine again, although the recent gaps have raised questions about the reliability of a capability critical to protecting civilians.

US President Donald Trump said Russia has been “fine” toward Ukraine and suggested Kyiv should appoint someone else other than President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to negotiate on its behalf, even as Russian forces continue attacks across Ukraine and Washington faces questions over its support for Kyiv.

His comments came as Russia continues striking Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, with regular attacks killing civilians and damaging residential buildings and energy facilities. Russia has waged a violent war against Ukraine for more than 12 years, seeking to seize Ukrainian territory and undermine the country’s sovereignty, with widespread violence, grave human rights abuses, and killings of civilians throughout the conflict.

Speaking to reporters on 19 October, Trump said Zelenskyy should have settled the war long ago and could have secured a better deal by following his advice. He accused the Ukrainian president of not doing enough to end the war, claiming that Zelenskyy did not want to stop the fighting. Trump said he wanted the war to end and argued that Russia had “been fine” toward Ukraine, adding that Moscow “hasn’t been doing much.”

On the same day, a Russian drone struck a park near a cafe in Kharkiv Oblast, killing six people, including a 14-month-old girl killed in her stroller and an 11-year-old girl. Another 14 people were injured, including six children, according to Ukrainian officials.

Russian attacks intensify as Kyiv loses advance warnings

Russian attacks across Ukraine have intensified in recent months, with large-scale drone strikes, missile attacks, and repeated hits on energy infrastructure. The attacks have killed civilians, damaged homes and businesses, and disrupted electricity and other essential services.

Kyiv has faced repeated Russian ballistic missile attacks without the advance warnings Ukraine normally receives from international partners. The latest attack on 19 October again raised concerns about gaps in warning time, leaving residents with little time to reach shelter.

The repeated gaps have fueled concerns about Ukraine’s access to intelligence amid reports of restrictions on some US support. Ukrainian officials warned that missing launch data could weaken the country’s ability to detect incoming ballistic missiles, while Washington denied halting intelligence sharing.

Republicans push back against Trump's Russia policy

Trump's approach has drawn criticism from members of his own party, particularly over his decision to ease restrictions on Russian energy exports and his broader efforts to reach an agreement with Moscow, according to POLITICO.

Republican lawmakers have questioned whether easing pressure on Russia will help end the war or instead give the Kremlin additional revenue and leverage while its military continues attacking Ukraine. The dispute has exposed divisions within the party over how to handle Putin and the future of US support for Kyiv.

The sanctions relief followed a broader push toward economic engagement with Moscow. On 18 October, Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had urged Zelenskyy in September to consider restoring Russian gas transit through Ukraine as part of a potential peace deal.

The proposal would revive a trade that Europe has spent years reducing because of its dependence on Russian energy. Renewed Russian energy exports could provide Moscow with additional revenue while its war against Ukraine continues.

Trump on Ukraine:

Maybe it's time for Zelensky to get somebody else to negotiate. pic.twitter.com/BA5kKSuONC

— Clash Report (@clashreport) October 19, 2026

Pressure on Kyiv as Washington considers closer ties with Moscow

Trump's comments add to tensions between Washington and Kyiv over the terms of a potential peace agreement and the level of US support for Ukraine. His suggestion that Ukraine change its negotiator raises further questions about whether his administration is willing to accept Kyiv's position in talks over its own future.

Zelenskyy has urged Washington to maintain pressure on Moscow rather than offer economic concessions. Ukrainian officials have also called for continued military assistance, particularly air defense systems, as Russia continues its campaign against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.

The contrast between Trump's description of Russia's conduct and the situation on the ground remains stark. While Trump says Moscow has behaved relatively decently, Russian forces continue to launch attacks that kill civilians, damage homes, and threaten Ukraine's energy supply. The lack of advance warning before recent ballistic strikes on Kyiv has added to concerns about the consequences of reduced or unreliable US support.

MEPs have put themselves on a collision course with EU governments by rejecting plans for a 17-percent cut in foreign spending – instead demanding additional spending worth €25bn. 

Earlier this month, the Irish government, which holds the six-month rotating EU council presidency, proposed that €38bn of cuts be made from the ‘Global Europe’ heading, which covers foreign aid, as part of an overall package of €141bn of cuts to the seven-year EU budget, known as the multi-annual financial framework (MFF). 

But in a vote on Monday evening (19 October), the European Parliament’s development committee instead backed a dedicated minimum budget of €25bn for humanitarian aid, as well as dedicated budget lines for a Gaza reconstruction fund and for candidate countries. Put together, that would mean a €25bn increase on the EU Commission’s original budget of €200bn for the Global Europe heading. 

The position agreed by MEPs, by a 61-to-34 vote margin, will eventually form the basis of negotiations between MEPs and ministers when EU governments agree their position on the budget. 

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Elon Musk approached US President Donald Trump with a proposal to limit the speed of Starlink satellite communications in Ukraine, disrupting Kyiv’s ability to counter Russian drone attacks, The Telegraph reported on 16 October, citing four sources familiar with the discussions.

The restrictions had immediate consequences for Ukraine’s defenses, forcing some drone missions against Russian positions to be called off and threatening the ability to intercept Russian jet-powered drones as they targeted Ukrainian cities at the time.

According to The Telegraph, Trump agreed with Musk’s suggestion, paving the way for the Pentagon to impose restrictions on Starshield, the military-grade version of SpaceX’s satellite network used by Ukrainian forces.

The report contradicts Musk’s public claim that the US military and ultimately Trump were responsible for deciding any limits on the system. However, Trump denied that either he or Musk was responsible for Ukraine losing access, while an anonymous US official told AFP that the president had not requested the reduction in service.

The reported restrictions come amid tensions between Washington and Kyiv over Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. The episode has raised concerns about Ukraine’s dependence on privately controlled communications infrastructure and the risk that changes to US support could weaken its battlefield capabilities.

Starshield restrictions hampered Ukraine’s drone defenses

Starshield is the military-grade version of Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet network. It allows Ukrainian drone operators to maintain communications with aircraft moving at high speeds, supporting both defensive interception missions and strikes against Russian targets.

The speed limit imposed on Ukrainian drones using Starshield was around 160 kph, making it difficult for them to intercept Russian jet-powered drones and missiles traveling at roughly twice that speed.

According to The Telegraph, a senior source said Musk had become concerned about potential backlash from European consumers following the restrictions. A high-ranking European official and two Ukrainian sources reportedly corroborated the account that Musk and Trump were both involved in the decision.

The Pentagon has not publicly explained the restrictions. The report’s account also remains disputed: Trump said on 16 October that he did not believe either he or Musk was responsible for Ukraine losing access, while an anonymous US official cited by AFP said the president had not requested the reduction.

Ukraine says Starshield capabilities are being restored

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 16 October that restrictions on SpaceX’s Starshield satellite communications system had disrupted several military operations, including efforts to intercept Russian jet-powered Geran drones attacking Ukrainian cities.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine did not use Starlink to support attacks inside Russia, but relied on the system to intercept drones targeting civilians, conduct mid-range strikes against Russian military targets in occupied Ukrainian territory, and deliver food and water to frontline troops using drones.

“When the speed was reduced, we were unable to intercept a certain number of jet-powered ‘shaheds,’ [Gerans - ed.]” Zelenskyy wrote on X, adding that Ukrainian forces had lost the ability to carry out some operations while the restrictions were in place.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s Defense Ministry was in contact with partners and had received signals from the White House that the capabilities would be restored. However, he stressed that speeds had not yet returned to their previous levels, although restoration was underway.

We don’t use Starlink for our responses inside Russia. We use Starlink to intercept jet-powered “shaheds” that attack our civilians and kill families.

Starlink wasn’t turned off – its speed was reduced. And when the speed was reduced, we were unable to intercept a certain number…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 16, 2026

Europe warns against dependence on Musk’s network

The latest episode has renewed European concerns about relying on Musk and SpaceX for critical communications infrastructure. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned Musk on social media that European customers were watching his actions, The Telegraph reported.

The European Union is developing its own satellite communications system, IRIS², intended to provide an alternative to Starlink, according to The Telegraph. The system is planned to become operational by 2030, leaving Ukraine and European governments dependent on existing providers in the meantime.

The report adds to concerns that decisions made in Washington or by private technology providers could directly affect Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian attacks.

Belgium plans to deliver 10 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of 2026, Prime Minister Bart De Wever announced on 16 October, raising the expected number from three amid delays in transferring the aircraft.

The expanded commitment comes as Ukraine faces sustained Russian drone and missile attacks and needs additional combat aircraft to strengthen its air defenses. 

De Wever made the announcement at a press conference in Brussels alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Anadolu Agency reported. He said Belgium’s deliveries had fallen behind schedule because its new US-made F-35 fighter jets arrived later than expected.

Belgium also discussed supplying more ammunition for Ukraine’s F-16s.

F-16 deliveries delayed by F-35 schedule

“We will deliver 10 this year,” De Wever said, explaining that delays in receiving Belgium’s F-35s had held up the transfer of its F-16s. The new aircraft are now beginning to arrive, allowing Belgium to move forward with deliveries to Ukraine.

Zelenskyy confirmed that Kyiv expects additional F-16s from Belgium by the end of the year and thanked Brussels for the agreement.

The announcement marks an increase from Belgium’s previously reported plan to send three F-16s to Ukraine by the end of 2026. The new figure would more than triple the number expected under that earlier commitment.

F-16s to help counter Russian jet-powered drones

De Wever said Ukraine urgently needs operational fighter jets and described the F-16 as one of the few weapons capable of effectively countering Russian jet-powered drones.

The aircraft can also intercept cruise missiles and other aerial targets, while carrying out electronic warfare and combat missions. Ukraine received its first F-16s in 2024 after allies agreed to supply the aircraft and train Ukrainian pilots. 

Belgium discusses ammunition and financial support

Zelenskyy and De Wever also discussed supplying additional ammunition for Ukraine’s F-16s, including 20 mm rounds produced by Belgian defense company FN Herstal.

The leaders also reportedly discussed Ukraine’s financial needs, though neither provided details on potential next steps. Belgium remains at the center of discussions over frozen Russian assets, as Brussels hosts Euroclear, which holds a large share of the immobilized funds.

Ukraine has received undisclosed assistance from Poland as it struggles to defend against increasingly intense Russian drone and missile attacks, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hinted during a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Brussels on 15 October, Radio Svoboda reported.

Ukraine’s air defense needs are greater than at any point since 2022, as intensified Russian drone and missile attacks strain existing systems and expose shortages of interceptor missiles. With US support increasingly uncertain amid tensions between Kyiv and Washington, European military aid is becoming more critical to Ukraine’s ability to defend its cities and infrastructure.

Zelenskyy thanked Warsaw for its support, suggesting that some assistance had to remain confidential. He also specifically mentioned 20 mm ammunition, which Ukraine needs to defend its cities against Russian attacks.

“Sometimes this has to stay between the two of us,” Zelenskyy said, thanking Tusk for the aid.

European support increasingly important amid US rift

Ukraine is facing mounting pressure on its air defenses as Russia increases the scale of its aerial attacks. Ukrainian forces are also struggling with shortages of interceptor missiles, particularly Patriot missiles needed to counter Russian ballistic strikes, leaving the country vulnerable to further attacks.

The need for additional support comes amid growing uncertainty over US assistance under President Donald Trump. Washington has taken steps that have strained ties with Kyiv, including easing some restrictions on Russian fuel and pressing for an energy ceasefire that Ukraine says Russia has continued to violate. 

Recent disruptions to US-linked intelligence and satellite support have also raised concerns about Ukraine's ability to detect and counter Russian attacks.

As uncertainty over Washington's role grows, European military assistance is becoming increasingly important for Ukraine's defense.

Defense cooperation continues despite political tensions

Tusk reaffirmed Poland's commitment to supporting Ukraine, saying Kyiv could count on Poland and the European Union. He also opposed easing EU sanctions against Russia, arguing that Europe should not take steps that help Moscow finance its war.

The meeting also came amid strained relations between Kyiv and Warsaw over historical disputes. However, Poland's government has maintained that these disagreements should not undermine military support for Ukraine, whose ability to resist Russian aggression is closely tied to Poland's own security.

Europe’s trade deficit with China reached a record $34.8bn [€31bn] in September, as EU leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday (15 October) to discuss Europe’s competitiveness agenda and what they call “macroeconomic imbalances” — a euphemism to avoid mentioning China by name.

EU heads of state and government are expected to give a mandate to the EU Commission to propose a set of trade defence measures and tools to reduce the EU’s reliance on Chinese industry, based on a new Franco-German blueprint, as a united front spreads across the bloc. 

There was a move towards a “surprising unitary position” on Beijing among member states, said an EU diplomat, ahead of a two-day summit in Brussels which began on Thursday (15 October).

A joint letter and policy paper submitted by French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Friedrich Merz to commission president Ursula von der Leyen last week was viewed by many EU diplomats as marking a decisive shift towards a more consolidated EU stance on trade relations with China. 

“For a long time, there were significant differences between these two countries on how to deal with China, how to address the economic situation,” parliament president Roberta Metsola told reporters on Thursday. 

The diplomat added that the commission’s trade diversification package, designed to reduce the bloc’s reliance on Chinese industrial inputs and curb Chinese exports, will be presented by the end of the year and will be based on the Franco-German paper. 

But the commission, for its part, has downplayed the prospect of rapid progress to EU-Chinese trade statistics. “It’s an issue which is not going to be solved in a couple of months,” said one official. 

‘Be ready for escalation’ but do nothing

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A backlash is building against an EU ‘omnibus’ bill that seeks to make it easier to authorise and use pesticides across the bloc. 

MEPs are still yet to set a date to vote on the European Commission’s proposal to extend how long pesticide active substances can stay approved in the EU, amid a series of protest letters from scientists, UN health experts, and divisions among member states. 

EI parliament’s environment and agriculture committees were originally expected to hold a joint vote on a compromise text on 5 October, but shelved that date without proposing another as this article went to publication. 

Sustained criticism has come from the scientific community. 

Last month, a group of more than 500 scientists signed an open letter to the commission on 16 September demanding a pause on the file pending “an independent assessment, whether carried out by parliament’s own research service or by an equivalent independent body.” 

And last week, a group of five UN health experts penned their own letter to the EU executive.

They warned that the commission’s plan to extend grace periods for products withdrawn on safety grounds, widen derogations for hazardous substances, and restrict the use of the latest independent scientific evidence “seem difficult to reconcile with the precautionary principle and with obligations to respect, protect and fulfil human rights, including the rights of peasants and other people working in rural areas”. 

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Belgium’s foreign minister has called on the EU to deepen its economic, trade, and defence ties with Turkey, amid concerns from Ankara that it risks being shut out of the bloc’s new rules on industrial supply chains and multi-billion euro defence procurement scheme. 

Speaking at a Turkey-EU business forum in Brussels on Tuesday (13 October), Belgian foreign minister Maxime Pévot said that European manufacturers were increasingly looking for reliable partners closer to home as they seek to reduce their reliance on Chinese inputs. 

“We should make values of its proximity, particularly in sectors where Europe needs to reduce strategic dependencies,” he added. 

“Our economic relationship should no longer be limited to buying and selling goods. We should also be developing, producing, and investing together,” he said. 

For his part, following talks with Ankara’s trade minister, Ömer Bolat, EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič told reporters that the two sides had agreed on reforms to Turkey’s import control system to make the system easier for EU exporters to use and a mutual recognition pact on trusted traders. 

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