French and US maritime patrol planes are watching the western Black Sea, where drones keep hitting merchant ships, Romanian outlet Curs de Guvernare reported on 19 October, citing flight-tracking data. Romania blames Russia for the attacks, while Bulgaria says it cannot prove who launched them.

Ukraine’s three small Danube ports have kept its grain exports from collapsing further, and Russia has pounded those ports since the summer. The ships serving them are now being hit in the economic zones of two NATO members. Many were anchored near or heading to the Sulina Canal, which links the Danube to the sea. That puts the allied patrols over these waters in the middle of the fight over Ukraine’s grain trade.

Two patrol planes over the western Black Sea

A French Navy Atlantique 2 maritime patrol plane arrived in Constanța, Romania’s main Black Sea port, on the evening of 18 October, Curs de Guvernare said. On 24 October, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said in the Bulgarian port of Varna that a French patrol plane had been operating in the area under NATO for two weeks and had contributed to rescue operations.

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Two tankers burn off Romania’s Sulina as Bulgaria says it lacks proof Russia is behind the Black Sea ship attacks

Meanwhile, a US Navy P-8A Poseidon flew into Varna from Sicily on 18 October, AFP reported, citing flight-tracking data. Two days later, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev said it had begun reconnaissance patrols after Sofia asked allies for help, and that some allies had responded quickly. Bulgarian Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov called the deployment a joint decision of Bulgaria and NATO. He said the plane cannot strike targets and passes its data to NATO, Anadolu Agency reported.

NATO promises more

On 20 October, NATO’s North Atlantic Council met at Romania’s request. Afterward, the alliance said it would send more maritime patrol aircraft, radar systems, and drones to the Black Sea. NATO military spokesman Col. Martin O’Donnell added that allies have sent or will send intelligence personnel and explosives-forensics teams. NATO itself has not attributed the attacks to any country.

Romania names Russia, Bulgaria hedges

Romania has been blunter. On 15 October, after four merchant ships were hit within a day, acting Foreign Minister Oana Țoiu wrote on X that “Russia bears full responsibility for these developments.” On 17 October, Romanian F-16s shot down two jet-powered Russian Geran drones near Sulina, Romania’s Defense Ministry said.

On 23 October, a drone sank the cargo ship Khoryv off Constanța, killing a Ukrainian sailor, and President Nicușor Dan blamed Russia too. “It is part of Russia’s escalation process in its war in Ukraine,” Dan said.

Bulgaria is more cautious. Radev told parliament on 14 October that the attacks worked in Russia’s favor but that Sofia could not prove it. Since taking office in May, he has sought a thaw in ties with Moscow.

A low turnout and security concerns shaped the first round, setting up a close contest between Iotova and pro-Western rival Andrey Gyurov.

Outgoing Bulgarian President Iliana Iotova led the first round of presidential elections on Sunday with between 35% and 36.5% of the vote, according to exit polls, but fell short of the result expected by her supporters. She will face former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov, backed by the pro-Western opposition, in a runoff scheduled for Nov. 1.

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Gyurov secured between 32.2% and 32.5% of the vote, according to the same exit polls, putting him within reach of Iotova ahead of the second round.

The election took place amid security concerns following a series of drone attacks on merchant vessels in the Black Sea. Voter turnout stood at around 20%, as some political parties called for a boycott.

Iotova, 62, has campaigned on dialogue with Russia and opposed military assistance to Ukraine. She has made ending the war in Ukraine a central theme of her campaign, presenting herself as a “president of peace.”

After casting her ballot, she called for a government capable of tackling poverty and regional inequalities. “I believe there must be peace, stability and security,” Iotova said.

Gyurov, meanwhile, called for a Bulgaria oriented toward Europe and the future, emphasizing economic security and effective governance.

He said he had voted for “a European, free and proud country, where incomes are sufficient, where we feel secure about tomorrow and where the state functions as it should.”

Iotova assumed the presidency earlier this year after Rumen Radev resigned to contest parliamentary elections, seeking to become prime minister. Bulgaria is a member of both the European Union and NATO.

If Iotova wins the Nov. 1 runoff, she would become the first woman elected president of Bulgaria, a country of 6.4 million people with the lowest per capita gross domestic product in the European Union.

Hopes raised for a reset in relations with EU and other partners following the defeat of authoritarian president

• Serbian leader ousted by student movement in seismic election

Back to Serbia, we are expecting to hear from two groups of election monitors in the coming hours: first, very shortly, from Serbia’s Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability (CRTA), and then a bit later from a group of international observers, including from the OSCE, the ODIHR, and the European parliament.

I will keep an eye on their findings and bring you the key lines.

Ukraine will not discuss limits to its armed forces or enforced neutrality at November meeting, president says. What we know on day 1,706

A trilateral meeting between Kyiv, Washington and Moscow will take place in November aiming to restart stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said. “We are ready to talk. If it’s a territorial issue, it must be addressed at a leadership level. Other issues fall within the remit of the technical groups. All this can therefore be discussed in November,” the Ukrainian president said on Sunday in an interview. Zelenskyy also renewed his push ⁠for a meeting between him and Vladimir Putin, believing that Putin is the only person ​in Russia who can make major decisions to end ​the war.

Zelenskyy says that at the trilateral talks, Ukraine will not discuss limits to its armed forces, or enforced postwar neutrality. Kyiv has long sought entry into Nato despite the reticence of some members.

Meanwhile, US warnings about imminent ⁠Russian ballistic missile strikes, critical to Ukraine’s air defences, have been fully restored, according to Zelenskyy. He told Ukraine’s ⁠TSN television channel that SpaceX’s ​Starshield satellite internet had been working at speeds of up to 420km/h since early on Saturday, after a meeting with the US special envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo. Starshield was throttled earlier in October amid diplomatic pressure on Kyiv from Washington.

The US has been trying to pressure Ukraine to suspend strikes on Russian oil refineries, which it says push energy prices higher. However, Zelenskyy has repeatedly said Kyiv will only stop the strikes if Moscow stops hitting Ukraine’s power infrastructure, or if the US allows Ukraine to use of Starshield ‌over Russia to detect launch places of its ballistic missiles, or if it supplies Ukraine with Patriot missiles.

Zelenskyy on Sunday said Russia had launched nearly 2,300 drones targeting Ukrainian cities over the past week, renewing his call on western allies to speed up deliveries of interceptors. “This week alone, Russia has launched about 1,600 guided bombs, 48 missiles of various types, including ballistic missiles, and almost 2,300 strike drones at Ukraine,” he wrote in an online post.

Russia’s defence ⁠ministry said on ⁠Sunday ​its drones had struck a ⁠cargo vessel bound for the Black Sea port of ⁠Chornomorsk in an overnight ​attack ‌and another cargo ‌vessel en route to the ‌port of Odesa during the day. The ministry said the vessels were being used to supply the Ukrainian army. Russian ‌forces also hit a logistics centre, a ​distribution centre and a logistics terminal in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv overnight. Reuters could not confirm the reports.

A Ukrainian drone attack overnight on the Russian border city ⁠of Belgorod killed ⁠three people ​and injured 13, local authorities said on Sunday, while ⁠a separate drone strike later in the day killed another person. The overnight attack on Belgorod ​damaged 30 apartment buildings, regional governor ⁠Alexander Shuvayev said.

The presidential election in Bulgaria on Sunday ended inconclusively, with the next head of state to be picked in a runoff. In a surprisingly strong performance, the candidate of the pro-western reformist opposition, Andrey Gyurov, will face the incumbent leftist president, Iliana Yotova. Iotova opposes military aid to Ukraine and favours dialogue with Russia, while Gyurov has often expressed firm support for Kyiv. The vote was held amid security concerns after a series of drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea.

Bulgaria’s presidential election is heading for a run-off on 1 November after incumbent Iliana Yotova led Sunday’s first round but fell well short of the majority required to win outright. The result was closer than pre-election polling had indicated, leaving her challenger, former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov, within reach of the presidency.

An Alpha Research exit poll put Yotova and her running mate, Kiril Valchev, on 35.3 per cent, and Gyurov and his running mate, Georgi Kandev, on 32.4 per cent. Other agencies produced slightly different estimates, but all placed the two tickets in the lead and showed a narrow gap. These figures are preliminary; Bulgaria’s Central Election Commission has yet to confirm the official result.

The outcome contrasts with pre-election surveys that gave Yotova a sizeable advantage. A Market Links poll published before voting put her well ahead of Gyurov. The first-round estimates instead suggest that the contest has tightened as voters weighed the candidates’ positions on foreign policy, domestic economic pressures and the direction of the government.

Yotova became president in January after Rumen Radev resigned to enter parliamentary politics. She had served as his vice-president for nine years and is now seeking a five-year mandate in her own right. Her candidacy is backed by Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria party and the Bulgarian Socialist Party. The election is the first nationwide test of Radev’s influence since Progressive Bulgaria won April’s parliamentary election. A Yotova victory would leave the presidency and government in the hands of political allies.

Gyurov, an economist and former deputy governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, served as caretaker prime minister earlier this year. He is supported by pro-Western reformist parties. During his premiership, his government signed a security co-operation agreement with Ukraine, and he has argued for closer co-operation with Western allies.

Their foreign-policy differences have been a defining feature of the campaign. Yotova has called for negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine and for better relations with Moscow. Gyurov has taken a more supportive position towards Kyiv. The choice reflects a longstanding debate in Bulgarian politics over how the country should balance its relationship with Russia against its EU and NATO commitments.

The war’s impact on the Black Sea has given that debate a direct security dimension. Drone attacks on commercial vessels near Bulgaria’s coast have raised concerns about shipping safety and the conflict’s potential to spread. The government has sought support from its partners to strengthen maritime security. Both leading candidates condemned the attacks, while their differences over the wider war have kept Bulgaria’s response and its ties with Moscow in focus. The attacks on merchant shipping were a prominent issue during the campaign.

Rising energy prices and inflation have also featured in the campaign, as households face pressure from the cost of living. Those concerns may matter to voters who backed neither of the two leading tickets. The second round will require Yotova and Gyurov to appeal beyond their first-round supporters, while also persuading voters who did not participate to return to the polls.

Revival party leader Kostadin Kostadinov placed third. His ticket with Petar Volgin received 12.6 per cent in the Alpha Research exit poll, though other estimates were higher. Kostadinov has opposed military support for Ukraine; Ukraine imposed a ten-year entry ban on him in 2022. His supporters could influence the run-off, but their votes should not be treated as a single bloc: some may back Yotova, others Gyurov, and some may stay at home.

Turnout was exceptionally low. Alpha Research estimated participation at 22.3 per cent by 7pm, with other agencies reporting similarly low figures. The Bulgarian constitution requires more than half of eligible voters to participate and a candidate to receive more than half of valid votes for a first-round victory. Neither threshold was met. Polling analysis cited election fatigue after April’s parliamentary vote and the fact that the presidential election was held separately.

The low participation makes Sunday’s estimates an uncertain guide to the run-off. A higher turnout could change the balance, particularly if one candidate succeeds in mobilising voters who stayed away or attracting supporters of eliminated candidates.

The presidency is largely ceremonial, with executive authority resting mainly with the prime minister and parliament. It nevertheless carries political weight: the president leads the armed forces, can veto legislation, signs international treaties and appoints ambassadors. The 1 November vote will decide whether Yotova secures a mandate of her own and consolidates the governing camp’s position, or whether Gyurov can turn his stronger-than-expected first-round showing into a change at the top of the state.