The central bank lifted its policy rate sharply as the country reels from war-fuelled price rises and faces further risk from an approaching 'super' El Nino.
In questi giorni il caro vita turba i sonni del mondo politico e sindacale, compresi quanti finora hanno ignorato i diffusi rincari dell’energia e dei beni di prima necessità, riducendo l’emergenza a mera polemica politica.
In questi giorni il caro vita turba i sonni del mondo politico e sindacale, compresi quanti finora hanno ignorato i diffusi rincari dell’energia e dei beni di prima necessità, riducendo l’emergenza a mera polemica politica.
Tuttavia, anche le poche mobilitazioni in corso dimenticano che la causa primaria dell’inflazione è proprio l’economia di guerra: l’escalation militare ha fatto ripartire la corsa dei prezzi, con conseguenze particolarmente pesanti per le economie europee, dipendenti dal greggio in transito nel Golfo Persico.
Un tempo le forniture principali arrivavano dalla Russia a costi decisamente inferiori a quelli attuali. Affermare che l’economia di guerra sia la causa principale dell’inflazione e del rallentamento economico europeo significa semplicemente prendere atto della realtà.
I dati parlano chiaro: tra marzo e agosto la UE ha sostenuto 54 miliardi di dollari di costi aggiuntivi netti solo per le importazioni di gas e petrolio. Questo dato basterebbe da solo ad aprire un dibattito serio sulle conseguenze economiche dei conflitti.
A confermare il quadro è l’Ufficio Studi della CGIA di Mestre: a fine anno gli italiani pagheranno 29 miliardi di euro in più tra rincari di elettricità, gas e carburanti. Solo in Italia il costo dell’energia elettrica è balzato del 51,2%. Rincari dovuti all’instabilità delle catene di approvvigionamento, alle speculazioni finanziarie e all’aumento delle spese militari, che sottraggono risorse essenziali al welfare.
Di fronte a questo scenario, la risposta del Governo appare timida e priva di coraggio. Mentre sostiene le spese per il riarmo, prova a calmierare con fondi pubblici le bollette degli italiani (che stimano una spesa aggiuntiva media di 153 euro all’anno per l’elettricità e 477 euro per il gas). Parallelamente, i rincari a doppia cifra colpiscono anche i beni alimentari di largo consumo: la dimostrazione che non si tratta di un incidente di percorso, ma di un effetto strutturale dell’economia di guerra.
In questo contesto, le manifestazioni di piazza rischiano di rivelarsi inefficaci, sia per la scarsa adesione sia per la debolezza delle motivazioni. Manca una riflessione complessiva sul sistema economico e sui meccanismi che spingono verso il basso i salari (a partire dai criteri di calcolo dell’IPCA). I bonus non sono la soluzione, bensì il sintomo del progressivo smantellamento del welfare pubblico.
È urgente iniziare a parlare apertamente di “economia di guerra”: un modello di produzione che alimenta la corsa alle risorse, dirotta i fondi pubblici verso la difesa e giustifica la sottrazione di risorse ai servizi essenziali. In caso contrario, continueremo a inseguire singoli provvedimenti tampone senza mai affrontare la vera radice del problema.
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New Zealand's annual inflation rate tumbled to 3.7 percent. The slowdown has raised the odds that the Reserve Bank will lift its benchmark interest rate at next week's policy meeting, even as price pressures are forecast to pick up again soon.
New Zealand's state broadcaster TVNZ faces its first staff strike in two decades after the E tū union rejected a 2.5% pay offer that workers say falls well short of inflation.
The European Central Bank says artificial intelligence investment, changing energy consumption and increased government spending have helped the eurozone withstand this year’s energy crisis, although economists warn that several sources of growth may prove temporary.
The eurozone economy has proved more resilient to the energy price shock of 2026 than economists initially expected, supported by increased investment in artificial intelligence, reduced dependence on fossil fuels and higher government expenditure, according to an assessment published by the European Central Bank on Wednesday, 21 October.
ECB economists Óscar Arce, Gerrit Koester and Beatrice Pierluigi found that structural changes in European energy consumption have reduced the economic consequences of rising oil and gas prices. Stronger international demand for technology equipment and additional public spending, particularly in Germany, have also supported growth.
The findings come as the ECB faces renewed inflationary pressure following disruption to global energy markets caused by the conflict involving Iran, raising questions about the outlook for interest rates and economic activity.
Excluding Ireland, where economic statistics are frequently affected by the activities of multinational companies, real eurozone GDP in the second quarter was 0.6 per cent above its level at the end of 2025.
The ECB also identified quarterly growth of approximately 0.3 per cent over the preceding four quarters, excluding Irish figures.
These results exceeded earlier expectations that the disruption to energy markets would have a greater impact on European manufacturing, consumer spending and business investment.
Nevertheless, the eurozone’s rate of expansion remains modest compared with its longer-term historical performance.
The ECB’s findings suggest that the economy has become better able to absorb international disruptions without experiencing the immediate contractions that might previously have followed comparable energy price increases.
Reduced reliance on imported oil and gas
One of the most significant structural changes concerns energy consumption.
According to the ECB, the eurozone economy is now approximately half as dependent on oil as it was during the early 1990s, measured against economic output.
Greater energy efficiency, the expansion of services and investment in alternative electricity generation have progressively reduced the amount of fossil fuel required to produce economic activity.
The growth of renewable energy has also altered the relationship between natural gas prices and electricity costs.
In Spain, the proportion of hours during which gas-fired power stations determined wholesale electricity prices fell from approximately 80 per cent in 2020 to just over 20 per cent during the first nine months of 2026.
France recorded a similar decline, from approximately 60 per cent to around 20 per cent, supported by its extensive nuclear generating capacity.
Consequently, increases in international gas prices are having a smaller effect on electricity markets in countries with substantial renewable or nuclear generation.
The ECB cautioned, however, that European economies remain exposed to global energy disruptions, particularly through industrial activity and international supply chains.
Artificial intelligence provides unexpected support
The international expansion of artificial intelligence has generated an additional source of demand for European manufacturers and technology companies.
Investment in computing infrastructure, digital services and specialised equipment has increased demand for products supplied by European businesses.
According to the ECB, global trade has performed considerably better than expected at the end of 2025.
The latest projections indicate international trade growth of approximately 4.7 per cent in 2026, compared with the 2 per cent forecast in December.
AI-related investment accounts for part of that improvement.
European manufacturers producing specialised machinery and technology equipment have benefited from increased export orders, while domestic investment in technology has supported economic activity.
However, the ECB found that the effects vary considerably between sectors.
Technology-equipment manufacturers recorded comparatively strong growth in output, employment and new orders.
Software companies performed better in output terms, but the improvement was less evident in employment and new business.
This uneven performance suggests that the economic benefits of the AI investment cycle are concentrated in particular industries.
German spending strengthens European demand
Fiscal policy has provided another source of support.
The ECB estimates that the expansionary fiscal stance in the eurozone has increased to approximately 0.5 percentage points of GDP, twice the level anticipated in December 2025.
Much of the additional stimulus reflects higher German government spending on defence and infrastructure.
Other eurozone governments have introduced measures to limit the effect of energy prices on households and businesses.
Public investment and expenditure have therefore helped compensate for weakness in areas affected by higher import costs and international uncertainty.
Yet the ECB warned that fiscal support cannot necessarily continue at its present level.
Several eurozone governments face borrowing constraints, while additional public spending can place pressure on national budgets.
Interest-rate decisions remain difficult
The ECB’s assessment comes amid expectations of further monetary tightening as policymakers respond to renewed energy-related inflation.
The central bank must consider whether higher energy costs will remain temporary or begin influencing wages, prices and inflation expectations more broadly.
Additional interest-rate increases could reduce inflationary pressures but would also raise borrowing costs for businesses, governments and households.
The economic recovery remains exposed to potential reversals in global demand, international trade and investment in artificial intelligence.
The ECB’s economists also identified geopolitical escalation and further supply-chain disruption as continuing risks.
Their findings indicate that reduced fossil-fuel dependence has made the eurozone less vulnerable to energy shocks, while technology investment and government spending have provided additional support.
Whether that resilience continues into 2027 will depend partly on the durability of international demand and the ability of European governments to maintain investment without increasing inflationary pressure.
Fewer than half of New Zealand business leaders feel positive about their own performance, with expectations for improvement sliding to a record low this quarter.
Home values fell across every Australian capital city last quarter, the sharpest decline on record, as high borrowing costs continue to weigh heavily on buyers nationwide.
Kemi Badenoch has said a "red warning light" is flashing on the economy as Britain's debt tops £3 trillion for the first time and inflation surges to 3.5% ahead of the Budget next week.
High debt, tight budgets and long-standing structural problems leave few quick or easy solutions.
Recent protests across Europe have brought social and economic strains into sharper focus, reflecting concerns that extend beyond prices to housing, incomes, public services and economic security. Governments face growing pressure to respond, but high debt, tight budgets and long-standing structural problems leave few quick or easy solutions.
Holding a cardboard sign reading “I am 81 and being evicted,” retiree Maria Teresa Faleiro joined crowds in Lisbon protesting against soaring living costs and a deepening housing crisis.
Despite never missing a payment on the 724-euro (813-U.S. dollar) monthly rent for the home she has lived in for 22 years, Faleiro faced eviction after her landlords refused to renew her lease. With nowhere else to go, she plans to appeal the court-ordered eviction, she said.
Faleiro’s struggle highlights the growing plight many pensioners in Portugal face in securing affordable housing. It also reflects a broader cost-of-living squeeze across Europe, where thousands have taken to the streets to protest rising housing, food, fuel and energy costs, even as headline inflation has eased.
In France, protests that began with students demanding better school conditions and more teaching staff broadened into nationwide demonstrations over rising living costs and wider social grievances.
Violence soon erupted on the sidelines of some rallies, with clashes, looting and arson reported in several cities. The historic city hall in Limoges was largely destroyed by fire.
In Spain, more than 50 protests took place in Madrid and dozens of other Spanish cities on Oct. 3, demanding action on soaring rents, evictions and housing affordability after the government failed to pass emergency housing legislation.
Elsewhere, protests in Italy and Belgium have reflected a broader mix of concerns over wages, prices, public services and fiscal tightening. In Milan, hundreds of black-clad demonstrators besieged Piazza del Duomo on Saturday, throwing firecrackers and bottles at police. At least four officers and 20 protesters were injured, while about 50 demonstrators were detained, according to the Italian news agency ANSA.
Gen Z is leading protests across the world after a global lurch to the right.
Neoliberal governments have gutted publicly funded services, while many young people fear entering a barren job market and a future overshadowed by instability.
Beyond higher daily expenses, mounting financial pressures are fueling a broader sense of economic insecurity across the continent. Although inflation has eased from its peak, households continue to feel the cumulative impact of earlier price increases.
The European Central Bank said food prices across euro-area countries were already 20 percent to 57 percent higher in August 2025 than at the end of 2019. Renewed energy pressures have added to the squeeze, with euro-area consumer energy inflation reaching 18.9 percent in September 2026, according to Eurostat.
Housing pressures are particularly acute among young Europeans. Data released by Eurostat showed that in 2025, 26.9 percent of young people aged 15 to 29 in the European Union (EU) lived in overcrowded households. And 9.1 percent of them lived in households spending at least 40 percent of their disposable income on housing, way above the 7.7 percent recorded for the total population.
Similar pressures are visible beyond the EU. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, property prices have risen by about 70 percent over the past five years, real estate agent Haris Kadic told the Federation News Agency (FENA).
Local media also reported that some residents are borrowing money or relying on help from children and friends to cover basic expenses as housing and fuel costs rise.
Emmanuel Conte, Milan’s city councilor responsible for housing, told Italian daily la Repubblica this month that when people who keep a city running can no longer afford to live there, housing is no longer just a social and economic issue but a political one.
Similarly, Jean Faniel, director general of Belgium’s Centre for Socio-Political Research and Information, told Belgian media outlet BRUZZ that violence accompanying recent protests should be understood in the context of mounting social frustration.
Faniel said peaceful demonstrations and violent confrontations are potentially interconnected rather than entirely separate phenomena, noting that successive austerity measures have placed mounting pressure on people’s living conditions, generating frustration and resentment.
European governments have introduced housing, energy and income support, but high debt, aging populations and competing demands for defense and investment are narrowing their room for further action.
As the European Commission expects France’s deficit to reach 5.1 percent of GDP in 2026 and public debt to reach 118.1 percent, Oliver Nachtwey, a sociologist at the University of Basel, said the country’s efforts to contain public debt through spending cuts leave governments with less room to invest in schools, teachers and other public services.
Experts said the challenge is to reconcile fiscal discipline with social stability. Thomas Decreus, a scholar at the Department of Philosophy at Tilburg University, warned that weakening basic social protections could undermine social peace. “A budget must be sound, but social investments are also necessary,” he said.
Former Croatian Economy minister Ljubo Jurcic told Xinhua that price freezes can help contain immediate pressures, but governments must consider who ultimately bears the cost. In the longer run, stronger productivity and a better economic structure offer more sustainable protection for households, he said.
While subsidies and price controls can provide relatively quick relief, expanding housing supply, improving public services and raising productivity can take years, analysts said.
The challenge lies in how governments should respond to demands for immediate results while pursuing reforms that may take much longer to deliver tangible benefits, they said.
ANZ economists say New Zealand's housing bubble has largely deflated after two years of price corrections. The bank expects only mild further declines nationwide, with Reserve Bank interest-rate moves still shaping buyer affordability.
Nigeria's finance minister, Taiwo Oyedele, said excessive money creation by the central bank and heavy petrol subsidy spending have driven up inflation pressures nationwide. He linked roughly 30 trillion naira in monetary financing directly to the price surge squeezing households and businesses.
Britain's annual inflation rate accelerated more than expected in September, rising to 3.5% on surging fuel prices. The data lands a week before the government presents its autumn budget, and as UK public-sector net debt tops £3 trillion.
US housing data weakened further in September, according to separate reports released Tuesday, even as the Federal Reserve weighs additional interest-rate increases. The figures add to signs that higher borrowing costs are weighing on home sales and construction activity. Economists say the reports complicate the central bank's next policy decision.
Donald Trump loves to put his name on things, and when it comes to the recent burst of inflation, it’s totally deserved. Trump and Republican politicians are doing their best to try to make a simple story complicated. But there is no doubt that Trump is the lead and almost sole author of the inflation […]
Social Security is racing towards insolvency because the program pays out more in benefits to retirees than it collects in taxes from working Americans.
Handing out even more generous benefits will make that situation worse. Yet that is exactly what the trustees who run Social Security are planning to do: Retirees will get a 3.6 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) next year. That increase is 0.8 percentage points higher than last year's, and it is 0.9 percentage points higher than what Social Security was expecting to pay.
The Social Security trustees are doing what the law requires during a time of high inflation. That's why Congress ought to intervene here.
It should cancel the COLA.
No, this isn't a demand that lawmakers stick it to America's retirees. It's an appeal for some fiscal common sense. There are three good reasons to cancel this year's COLA.
First: Handing out higher benefits to wealthy retirees simply doesn't make sense when Social Security is trending towards insolvency.
As the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget notes, the announced COLA would be a $900 increase in benefits for the average retired household—but some retirees could receive as much as $3,600 more.
Paying generous benefits to wealthy households is the main reason Social Security is facing insolvency in the first place. A program originally intended to keep seniors from falling into poverty has become a huge wealth-transfer scheme that overwhelmingly benefits those who don't need the handouts. The COLA doubles down on this flaw.
Second: What about the workers who are paying for those lavish benefits? Wages have risen by 3 percent, on average, over the past year. Those pay increases have already been outpaced by inflation, which is up 3.7 percent in the past 12 months.
You'll often hear retirees talk about how they are living on a "fixed income," but the math simply doesn't bear this out. Social Security beneficiaries will get a COLA that is larger than the average pay increase for the workers who are funding the COLA. Retirees are protected from the impact of inflation while younger Americans must deal with inflation and finance that protection for the elderly. That's crazy.
Third: Cutting the COLA could kick-start a conversation about how to solve Social Security's looming insolvency. The Social Security trustees estimate that an across-the-board cut of about 22 percent will be necessary in 2032. Eliminating COLAs won't meaningfully change that arithmetic, but it would change the conversation—which has for too long been dominated by politicians promising seniors that nothing needs to change. That's wrong—and the sooner that becomes apparent, the better off the political system will be.
If eliminating the COLA is too radical a change, Congress should instead change how the trustees calculate the annual increase.
Currently, the COLA is based on one particular measure of inflation: the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, otherwise known as CPI-W. This is a relatively narrow index that reflects the spending habits of only about one-third of all Americans, as Romina Boccia points out in her newletter, The Debt Dispatch.
Instead, Boccia suggests using the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, or C-CPI-U, which covers about 93 percent of all Americans and is generally regarded as a better measure of the rising cost of living. Other parts of the federal government already use C-CPI-U to update such things as tax brackets.
If Congress simply changed how Social Security's COLA was calculated, it could close 12 percent of the program's long-term shortfall. And while some retirees would see smaller COLAs as a result, the result would more closely match those increases to inflation.
Social Security's COLA reflects many of the fundamental flaws with America's old-age entitlement program. Like Social Security as a whole, it is too generous to the rich, too costly to the taxpayers, and too unfair to younger, poorer workers.
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TOKYO — An unwelcome blast of US inflation is blowing across Asia’s markets. September’s hotter-than-expected price data revived concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer, threatening fresh pressure on currencies, capital flows and economic growth across the region.
Last month’s 3.7% year-on-year increase in consumer prices didn’t just exceed forecasts. It ensured the Fed is on an even bigger collision course with both the bond market and US President Donald Trump’s White House. It’s arguably the last thing both Trump and US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh wanted to see less than three weeks ahead of the mid-term elections.
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