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Russia and Ukraine Exchange Strikes: Railway Infrastructure, Energy, Metallurgy, and Chemical Industry Targets Hit

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On the night of October 28, Russian forces carried out a combined strike against targets on Ukrainian territory. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the attack employed an Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missile and 88 strike UAVs. The main emphasis was placed on logistics and energy infrastructure in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Volyn, and other Regions. In parallel, Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone and cruise missile attacks against industrial targets on Russian territory, including the largest metallurgical combine and a chemical plant.

Strikes on Ukrainian Territory

Kharkiv Region

  • Logistics center in Kharkiv. According to a statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the site was used to store military and dual-use cargo intended to supply Ukrainian troops.

  • Locomotive near the settlement of Ordovka.

Dnipropetrovsk Region

  • Pyatykhatky railway station, Kamianske district. Two consecutive Geran-4 UAV strikes during the day. The first strike set a rail trolley on fire, destroyed the driver’s cab, and damaged the overhead contact line and a grain car in a freight train; the second strike set an electric locomotive on fire.

  • Gas station in Shakhtarske.

Chernihiv Region

  • Energy infrastructure in Chernihiv. According to Ukrainian sources, about 210,000 subscribers were left without electricity, and roughly 90 percent of the city was de-energized. The specific target has not been identified.

Volyn Region

  • PS-330 Lutsk-Northern substation, Lutsk. According to a statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the facility supplied power to military-industrial enterprises producing UAVs and components.

  • PS-330 substation, Kovel. A similar target; power outages were recorded in Kovel after the strike.

Kirovohrad Region

  • Railway facility in Znamianka.

Odesa Region

  • Bulk carrier underway toward the port of Chornomorsk. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the vessel was delivering cargo to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Reports also indicated strikes on targets in Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Kherson, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Regions. A blackout was recorded in central Kyiv, with electricity absent in parts of the central districts.

Strikes on Russian Territory

According to a statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense, 531 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight over Russian territory across 13 federal subjects.

Lipetsk Region

  • Novolipetsk Metallurgical Combine (NLMK), Lipetsk. The largest metallurgical enterprise in Russia, with a capacity of about 17 million metric tons of steel per year. According to Ukrainian sources, it was attacked with FP-5 cruise missiles; a fire was reported in the area of the combine. The governor of Lipetsk Region confirmed that UAV debris had fallen and vegetation had caught fire, while denying a “major fire at an industrial enterprise.” A total of 45 UAVs were shot down over the Region.

Tula Region

  • Azot chemical plant, Novomoskovsk. According to Ukrainian sources, the plant was attacked by UAVs, with the AM-70 ammonia production unit reportedly hit. Russian authorities confirmed the attack on the chemical plant and damage to residential buildings, without providing details about production capacity.

Kursk Region

  • Building housing servers for the regional healthcare system, Kursk. Damaged as a result of a UAV attack; disruptions to certain medical services are possible. Over the day, 168 UAVs were shot down over the Region, and three people were injured.

For the week of October 19–25, according to Russian data, attacks on civilian targets killed 50 civilians and injured 263.

On October 28, two opposing directions are evident: Russian strikes are concentrating on Ukrainian railway logistics, energy, and warehouse infrastructure, while Ukrainian drones are attacking large industrial sites deep inside Russia, including metallurgy in Lipetsk and chemical production in Novomoskovsk. The strikes on the substations in Lutsk and Kovel are of particular significance, as they point to an attempt to weaken the power supply to western Ukraine’s logistics and production capacity.


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Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 28, 2026 (Maps Update)

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  • Russian strikes hit targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Chernihiv regions, and the DPR;
  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with an Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missile and 88 strike UAVs;
  • Russian forces struck an electronics manufacturing plant (NTU Ukrspeccommunication LLC) in the Kharkiv region;
  • Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,160 personnel over the past 24 hours.

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  • Russian forces took control of Barilovka in the Sumy region.

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  • Russian forces took control of Alisovka in the Kharkiv region.

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  • During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 531 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
  • Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Kursk, Lipetsk, Oryol, Rostov, Ryazan, Smolensk, Tambov, and Tula regions, and in the Moscow region;
  • Ukrainian drones targeted a building housing servers for the regional healthcare system in Kursk;
  • Ukrainian forces attacked the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant in Lipetsk;
  • Ukrainian forces attacked the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk and targeted multi-story and private houses and infrastructure in the industrial zone of the Tula region;
  • In the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), four civilians were killed and eight injured over the past 24 hours.

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Trump Leaning Toward Bigger Iran Operations After Midterm Elections

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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher

American forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials. The officials said sufficient forces are now in the region to carry out the potential attacks and that new US military operations would likely extend beyond efforts to “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers, and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted. As the sources stressed, this has been the case since Trump halted full combat operations earlier this year.

“It will be a big effort,” one of the officials told CNN. Other current and former US officials familiar with internal military planning say it is a matter of when, not if, Trump will issue a go-order. They believe it could come at any time before the end of the year, though it is most likely after the US midterm elections on November 3.

CNN reported that Iranian forces are now more familiar with US tactics, making it harder for the American military to destroy all intended targets. However, leaders at US Central Command and the Pentagon have been developing a wide-ranging target list that includes Iranian energy infrastructure, military sites, and nuclear facilities.

The planning also takes place against the backdrop of assessments that any larger US and Israeli operation would likely prompt immediate retaliation by Tehran and the Houthis against American personnel and facilities in the region. One US official described the current situation around the Strait of Hormuz as “untenable” over the longer term, citing it as one factor that could influence a decision on military action if diplomacy fails.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also been pushing to launch new attacks against Iran, but US officials have asked him to delay until the Trump administration is ready to conduct joint operations, according to the two US officials and an Israeli security source.

Recent US intelligence assessments indicate that Netanyahu and his allies still lack a clear strategic objective beyond demonstrating some form of “progress” and continuing to degrade the Iranian regime, one source familiar with the reports said.

“Netanyahu really wanted and tried to convince Trump for a joint attack in Iran before the elections, and Trump did not give a green light,” the Israeli security source told CNN. The Israeli prime minister’s office called it “fake news.”

The Israeli security source added that one reason Trump declined was that Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir told US Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, that it would harm Israel’s elections and lead to their postponement.

Israel’s Channel 12 News reported on October 25 that Zamir and Netanyahu had an “unprecedented” confrontation less than 48 hours before the election. According to the report, Zamir received a directive from the political echelon regarding Iran but sought an in-depth discussion and legal authorization before acting, concerned that the move could be miscalculated and trigger an immediate conflict.

Defense Minister Israel Katz said the report was “completely baseless and false.”

The preparations US officials described come amid other military plans reported by other American outlets. The New York Times, for example, has reported that the US and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for a short, intensive round of strikes following the American midterm elections, with likely targets including Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. According to the NYT, the two sides have stepped up exercises, including flights over Iraq to practice strike manoeuvres. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also recently met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss options.

ABC News reported that the Israeli military and the US have drawn up plans for renewed joint strikes in the coming weeks, with Israeli sources indicating the operations would almost certainly be delayed until after the US midterms. The White House has publicly stated that the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 elections.

At the same time, Iranian officials have signalled they are preparing for renewed hostilities. Iranian sources have warned that any new US-Israeli campaign would prompt a broader retaliatory response, potentially including attacks on energy infrastructure, data centers, and other economic targets in Gulf states.

Although it is uncertain whether the current planning will lead to a new major operation, it appears that Trump is heading in that direction if Iran does not submit to American demands. Nonetheless, US officials insist that although forces are in position and target lists have been prepared, no final order has been issued—and past periods of apparent readiness have not always led to action.


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Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 27, 2026 (Maps Update)

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  • Russian strikes hit targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Ivano-Frankivsk, Odesa, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Chernihiv regions, and the DPR;
  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles and 280 strike UAVs;
  • Russian forces struck an industrial enterprise, the Oakline LLC UAV assembly workshop, another UAV workshop, and the Yuzhny road-rail bridge in Kyiv;
  • Russian forces struck the unloading and customs terminal of Regional Logistics Centre LLC in Kharkiv;
  • Russian forces struck a dry cargo vessel delivering cargo to the port of Chornomorsk in the Odesa region;
  • Russian forces struck an energy facility in Chernivtsi;
  • Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,115 personnel over the past 24 hours.

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  • Russian forces advanced toward Khatneye.

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  • Russian forces advanced in the tract area near Miropolye and Velyka Rybytsia.

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  • During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 222 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
  • Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Novgorod, Tver, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Kaluga, Oryol, Tula, Voronezh, Smolensk, and Rostov regions, in Krasnodar Krai, in the Republic of Crimea, and over the Black Sea;
  • Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Novgorod, Tver, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Kaluga, Oryol, Tula, Voronezh, Smolensk, Rostov regions, Krasnodar region, the Republic of Crimea, and over the Black Sea;
  • One person was killed and six were injured in Bryansk. Several apartment buildings were damaged;
  • Ukrainian drones targeted a passenger bus traveling from Simferopol to Moscow, One person was killed.

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Russia Continues Strikes on Ukraine’s Attack-Drone Production and Military Supply Hubs

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On the night of October 27, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a massive combined strike across Ukrainian territory. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the attack involved Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles and strike UAVs, 16 missiles and more than 280 drones in total. The Russian Ministry of Defense says it struck defense-industrial enterprises involved in the production of cruise missiles and UAVs, transportation infrastructure, logistics centers handling dual-use cargo, and maritime vessels used to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Strikes by Region

Kyiv and Kyiv Region

• Southern Road-and-Rail Bridge. A key piece of transportation infrastructure in the capital used for the transit of cargo by road and rail. Ukrainian sources confirmed damage to the crossing, which led to a partial suspension of service on the Green Line of the metro and major transport disruption at Darnytsia Station.
• UAV assembly workshop of LLC Oakline. A production site that assembled and stored Fire Point’s FP-1 and FP-2 long- and medium-range unmanned aerial vehicles.
• Industrial facility producing and storing long- and medium-range UAVs. Another Kyiv site struck during the overnight attack; its specific name has not been disclosed.
• UAV assembly workshop producing and storing long- and medium-range fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.

Kharkiv Region
• Unloading and customs terminal of the Regional Logistics Center company. A logistics facility where, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, military supplies, dual-use cargo intended for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and reconnaissance and strike UAVs were stored and distributed.

• Electronics manufacturer LLC NTP Ukrspetssvyaz, in the settlement of Nadtochii. A production site that made automation systems and communications equipment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

• Gas production infrastructure. Naftogaz reported a morning strike on gas production infrastructure in Kharkiv Region. The available information does not identify specific fields or facilities.

• Budmen home-improvement store in Kharkiv. A facility reportedly struck, according to local Telegram channels.

Odesa Region
• Bulk carrier bound for the port of Chornomorsk. A cargo vessel that, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, was delivering supplies intended to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Bulk carrier bound for the port of Odesa. Another cargo vessel en route to Odesa with military cargo; it was struck in the daytime wave of attacks.

Chernivtsi Region
• Energy infrastructure facility. Local sources said the target was a substation; Chernivtsioblenergo warned of possible large-scale emergency outages. In Chernivtsi, trolleybus service was suspended, power was lost in several districts, and water was supplied at reduced pressure.

Chernihiv Region
• Depot holding UAV assets and winter uniforms of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to monitoring channels, a UAV strike sparked a large fire that destroyed unmanned systems and winter uniforms belonging to Ukrainian troops.

Strikes on facilities were also reported in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Lviv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Cherkasy Regions.

The nature of the October 27 strikes points to a continued systematic campaign against Ukraine’s strike-UAV production chain and the logistics hubs supplying its armed forces. Within this framework, the overnight wave combined strikes on Kyiv’s assembly facilities with damage to the Southern Bridge, affecting both drone production and its delivery channels. The strikes on the logistics terminal in Kharkiv Region and on cargo vessels off Chornomorsk and Odesa serve the same purpose: cutting off routes for dual-use cargo and components. The damage to the energy facility in Chernivtsi Region was limited in scale and did not involve major power-generation capacity, unlike earlier attacks on thermal and hydroelectric power plants.

Ukraine’s response is shifting toward scaling output rather than quality: Defense Minister Oleksii Khmara discussed with Western partners the transfer of 10% of their Patriot and IRIS-T missile stockpiles, as well as the possibility of doubling Ukrainian drone production by 2027 with sufficient funding. This aligns with Fire Point’s acknowledgment that the Flamingo missile mattered more as a political signal than as a “superweapon.” According to company head Iryna Terekh, the project was primarily intended to demonstrate Ukraine’s ability to conduct long-range strikes against Russian territory. The company also acknowledged the economic trade-off: delivering a 200-kilogram warhead over 300 kilometers by ballistic missile costs about $600,000, whereas a drone can deliver a comparable payload over 380 kilometers for $40,000-$50,000.

It is precisely this economic logic that explains why strikes on FP-1 and FP-2 assembly capacity and logistics hubs are becoming increasingly significant: drones remain Ukraine’s most numerous and affordable means of long-range strike, and this segment is also the most vulnerable part of its program. In the medium term, Russian strikes are likely to continue prioritizing enterprises that produce components for UAVs and cruise missiles, as well as transportation routes linking Ukraine’s central and western regions to the front line.


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War Will Cover Up the Losses: How Europe’s Crises Are Fueling Escalation with Russia

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Europe and Russia are entering a phase in which diplomatic expulsions and explosives-laden drones at airports are no longer treated as exceptions. Germany is openly preparing its hospitals for an influx of wounded personnel, while the assessed threat of sabotage has officially been raised. Meanwhile, expensive energy and competition are costing European industry production capacity and jobs. Under these conditions, an external conflict offers a convenient way to blame economic failures on a foreign enemy. The question is no longer whether escalation is taking place, but how far the two sides are prepared to go before it slips beyond their control.

The autumn of 2026 has brought a series of developments that take the confrontation between Russia and Europe beyond the familiar boundaries of ‘hybrid warfare’. In August, drones carrying explosives were discovered at Leipzig/Halle Airport. The German authorities formally blamed Russia, describing the incident as ‘crossing a red line’ with potentially lethal consequences. Berlin closed Russia’s consulate-general in Bonn and its cultural center. Moscow responded by closing the German consulate in St. Petersburg.

In September, another drone carrying explosives was found near Wunstorf airbase. The Bundeswehr subsequently raised its assessment of the threat from Russian sabotage to ‘significant’, the second-highest level, for the first time. German intelligence services warn that further attacks are likely. Meanwhile, arson attacks have been reported at drone manufacturing facilities in Estonia, Poland and Slovakia, alongside drone incidents over military installations and civilian airports across Europe.

German military planners are openly preparing the hospital system to receive up to 1,000 wounded personnel a day in the event of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. Underground medical bunkers are being brought back into service, including one in Ulm with capacity for 2,000 people. Civilian surgeons are being trained to treat blast injuries and burns, while coordination between military and civilian hospitals is being strengthened. Diplomatic expulsions, consular closures, accusations of sabotage and preparations for mass casualties together suggest that both sides are already operating according to the logic of an ‘undeclared war’.

Military and diplomatic tensions, however, are only one part of the picture. The economic conditions in which this escalation is unfolding, and the political purpose it serves, are more consequential.

Europe’s economy is facing a deep structural crisis that can no longer be concealed behind reports celebrating the ‘green transition’. TTF benchmark gas prices are hovering around €87–88 per MWh, approximately 174% higher than a year earlier. EU gas storage facilities are just 71–74% full, among the lowest mid-October levels of the past decade, compared with around 83% last year. Germany’s position is even weaker, with storage levels fluctuating around 57–60%.

Electricity and fuel costs are putting pressure on the entire supply chain. Annual energy inflation reached almost 19% in September, while average diesel prices across the EU climbed to €2.14–2.23 per liter. Industrial energy costs are four to five times those faced by American competitors. Chemical plants and metal producers, particularly in Germany and northern Italy, are being forced to cut output or shut down production facilities. Industrial production in the eurozone continues to fall; in Germany, it is already almost 10% below its 2021 level. Industry’s share of EU GDP has declined from 17.4% to 14.3%.

The pressure extends to agriculture. Fertilizer prices have risen by more than 13%, while farmers’ energy costs have increased by around 22%. At the same time, the prices farmers receive for their produce are falling. This raises the risk of a poorer harvest in 2027 and a second wave of food inflation. Farmers in several countries are already warning that their operations are becoming commercially unviable, while transport costs are making many deliveries unprofitable.

The situation resembles a familiar scheme: a warehouse owner who has spent years stealing stock eventually sets fire to the building and tells investigators that everything was destroyed ‘by accident’. European governments have spent years pursuing policies that have made energy expensive, imposed excessive regulation and applied sanctions whose heaviest impact has fallen on their own industry and agriculture. Now, as gas, electricity, diesel and fertilizer bills squeeze businesses and households, and Chinese competitors capture market share, an external conflict offers a convenient excuse.

War, or even the prospect of war, allows rising prices, factory closures, cuts to social spending and budget shortfalls to be blamed on an ‘external aggressor’. Instead of acknowledging mistakes in energy and industrial policy, governments invoke the ‘price of freedom’ and the ‘defense of democracy’. The further tensions escalate, the easier it becomes to explain to the public why housing, food and heating cost more, and why industrial jobs are disappearing.

The current situation brings together two parallel developments. Tensions are rising through sabotage incidents, diplomatic expulsions, higher threat assessments and preparations for hospitals to receive large numbers of wounded personnel. At the same time, European elites need a convenient external explanation for economic failure. High gas and electricity prices, low storage levels, expensive diesel, rising fertilizer costs and shrinking industrial output are already a reality. Escalation creates political capital for those responsible for costly mistakes in energy and industrial policy over recent years. It allows them to shift the discussion from domestic policy failures to an ‘external threat’, postponing accountability.

This logic itself increases the risk of an uncontrolled shift from ‘hybrid’ operations to direct confrontation. As long as European governments prefer preparing hospitals for thousands of casualties to reconsidering their energy and industrial policies, the practice of ‘burning down the warehouse to conceal the missing stock’ continues. The remaining question is how far the two sides are prepared to go before the cost becomes too high for European societies themselves.


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European Protests Gather Force As Citizens Demand Answers On Public Spending

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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher

What began in September with student protests and social unrest in France over education reforms and rising tensions, alongside months of anti-government actions in Albania targeting Edi Rama’s long rule, has spread to Belgium, Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, and beyond, turning the streets of many European cities into battlegrounds of tear gas, water cannons, and burning barricades.

Early signs suggest Croatia and Austria could join the protests, which some are calling a “European Autumn.” Beyond Albania’s more political confrontation, the protests reflect the anger of ordinary citizens over high living costs, unaffordable housing, squeezed public services, and the belief that governments prioritize other issues, such as the Ukraine War, over household budgets.

In France, hundreds of thousands have taken to the streets in recent days. Authorities report nearly 1,000 detentions nationwide, a heavy deployment of police and gendarmes, and clashes involving water cannons and tear gas. In Rome, authorities detained more than 200 young people during similar confrontations. In Barcelona, demonstrations escalated into riots, resulting in roughly 100 arrests, dozens of fires, and looted shops. In Tirana, thousands have protested with Molotov cocktails and have faced police tear gas. These are not isolated incidents but reflect youth frustration and public exhaustion as prices rise while wages and services lag.

European officials have repeatedly blamed outside actors, particularly Russia, for the unrest. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto described the violence in Milan and other cities as the result of a “hybrid war” waged through platforms such as TikTok, social media, and YouTube, while Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni ordered intelligence briefings to assess whether foreign actors, including Moscow, had helped amplify the unrest. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said that hostile narratives from Russia, China, Iran, and the MAGA community had exploited high-school student protests in France.

Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed these claims as obvious exaggerations that European citizens can see through.

“To suggest that we are provoking mass protests in major European cities, well, that is clearly going too far, it’s something that, in my view, is obvious to the ordinary citizens of European countries,” Putin said, adding that the accusations reflect “the weakness and inability of certain leaders in European countries to take responsibility for what is happening.”

Leaders and officials blaming Moscow reflect Europe’s long habit of shifting blame outward rather than addressing the rise in energy prices following the cut of cheaper Russian supplies and the redirection of more public funds toward expanding the defense industry since 2022. The protest’s origins in budget cuts to education, housing, and everyday services are evident in the slogans and demands heard on the streets.

In Albania, protests against plans to build a hotel near Vlorë escalated into a broader movement to oust the government. In Spain, anger erupted over the eviction of an elderly resident, whose home was later occupied by migrants. In France, student opposition to enrollment reforms drew in other groups, including people from North African communities. Although each protest had a different trigger, their spread across the continent shows how resistance has inspired youth amid shared economic pressure.

In response to the protests, French authorities are expected to scale back some planned education cuts, which could ease immediate tensions. Yet France has the eurozone’s third-highest debt, behind only Italy and Greece. Without broader social agreement on priorities—including affordable energy, housing supply, and avoiding wasteful defense spending—the protests are likely to continue. Immigration pressures and social divisions further reinforce the sense that resources are being misdirected.

Politically, the unrest accelerates polarization already underway in France. Centrist parties continue to lose ground as voters move toward left- and right-wing alternatives. Some establishment figures try to use the disorder to limit options, including those of the far-right Marine Le Pen’s movement and the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s, but this only further erodes the current administration’s legitimacy.

Le Pen has used images of looting, burned vehicles, and street clashes to reinforce a law-and-order message, arguing that the country needs stronger command and that chaos cannot be a governing project. Mélenchon, by contrast, has aligned himself with the underlying student and cost-of-living grievances, criticizing police tactics and framing the protests as a response to years of underfunding in education and public services. Both draw support from different segments of the French public angered by the center’s failure to deliver affordable energy, housing, and stable public services while maintaining high debt and defense commitments.

Unless governments directly address energy prices, debt constraints, and migration, the so-called Autumn Wave will persist and spread across Europe, deepening polarization, as already evident in French politics. Blaming external actors, from Moscow to social media platforms, will not restore public trust or lower household costs, but will deepen the animosity already building.


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Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 26, 2026 (Maps Update)

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  • Russian strikes hit targets in the the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi regions, and the DPR;
  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 1 Kh-31P anti-radiation missile, 3 Kh-59/69 missiles, and 140 strike UAVs;
  • Russian forces struck a UAV depot and the Zalyutino PS-330 power substation in the Kharkiv region;
  • Russian forces struck the PS-330 power substation in the Khmelnytskyi region;
  • Russian forces struck the infrastructure of three berth terminals in the port of Chornomorsk and a dry cargo ship delivering military cargo to the port of Odesa;
  • Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,285 personnel over the past 24 hours.

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  • Russian forces took control of Obshcheye and Nikolskoye in the Zaporizhzhia region.

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  • Russian forces took control of Mirovoe and advanced north of Dobropolye.

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  • During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 290 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
  • Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Volgograd, Kaluga, Kursk, Lipetsk, Novgorod, Oryol, Pskov, Rostov, Ryazan, Smolensk, Tver, and Tula regions, and in the Moscow region;
  • Ukrainian strikes killed two civilians in Voronezh. Fires broke out at several industrial enterprises, and civilian infrastructure was damaged;
  • Ukrainian strikes injured two children and a man in Melitopol;
  • Ukrainian strikes targeted a freight train traveling from Bryansk to Gomel in Novozybkov. The train driver was killed.

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Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 26, 2026 (Maps Update)

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  • Russian strikes hit targets in the the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi regions, and the DPR;
  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 1 Kh-31P anti-radiation missile, 3 Kh-59/69 missiles, and 140 strike UAVs;
  • Russian forces struck a UAV depot and the Zalyutino PS-330 power substation in the Kharkiv region;
  • Russian forces struck the PS-330 power substation in the Khmelnytskyi region;
  • Russian forces struck the infrastructure of three berth terminals in the port of Chornomorsk and a dry cargo ship delivering military cargo to the port of Odesa;
  • Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,285 personnel over the past 24 hours.

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  • Russian forces took control of Obshcheye and Nikolskoye in the Zaporizhzhia region.

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  • Russian forces took control of Mirovoe and advanced north of Dobropolye.

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  • During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 290 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
  • Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Volgograd, Kaluga, Kursk, Lipetsk, Novgorod, Oryol, Pskov, Rostov, Ryazan, Smolensk, Tver, and Tula regions, and in the Moscow region;
  • Ukrainian strikes killed two civilians in Voronezh. Fires broke out at several industrial enterprises, and civilian infrastructure was damaged;
  • Ukrainian strikes injured two children and a man in Melitopol;
  • Ukrainian strikes targeted a freight train traveling from Bryansk to Gomel in Novozybkov. The train driver was killed.

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Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 25, 2026 (Maps Update)

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  • Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Odesa, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernihiv regions, and the DPR;
  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 153 strike UAVs;
  • Russian forces struck the Epicentr logistics centre, a distribution centre, and the Vasishchevo logistics terminal in the Kharkiv region;
  • Russian forces struck a dry cargo ship in the port of Chornomorsk;
  • Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,145 personnel over the past 24 hours.

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  • Russian forces advanced in the southern part of Belozerskoye;
  • Russian forces took control of Veseloye Pole and Bokovoye;
  • Russian forces advanced near Mirovoe.

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  • Russian forces advanced in the eastern part of Kondratovka;
  • Russian forces advanced in the area of Raiskoye.

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  • During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 532 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
  • Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the following regions: Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh, Tula, Oryol, Lipetsk, Kaluga, Ryazan, Rostov, Saratov, Samara, Penza, Volgograd, and Ulyanovsk; in the Moscow region; in Perm Krai and Krasnodar Krai; in the Republics of Tatarstan, Adygea, Mari El, Crimea, and Udmurtia; and over the Sea of Azov;
  • Ukrainian strikes killed one civilian and injured 14 others in Belgorod. Houses, cars, social, and commercial facilities were damaged;
  • A Ukrainian drone attacked a minivan in the Bryansk region. Two people were killed, and two were injured;
  • Over the past 24 hours, one person was killed, and five more civilians were injured in the DPR.

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Mobilization in Ukraine Continues Unabated: The Daily Reality of Forced “Busification”

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Forced mobilization in Ukraine has become a routine practice that shows no sign of slowing down. According to data obtained through a leak from the National Police, in the first seven months of 2026 alone, Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) officers detained 228,000 people on the streets. Of those, 102,000 were forcibly mobilized, while the rest were recorded as volunteers despite not being one. Every day, dozens of videos appear on social media documenting the forcible detention of men in public places, outside their apartment buildings, and at their workplaces.

The arsenal of methods used by the TCC and police is expanding and becoming increasingly aggressive. Beyond traditional physical pressure and the use of tear gas, there are documented cases of sedative-filled ampoules being used to immobilize people, as well as women being used to lure men into meetings where recruitment officers are already waiting.

Kharkiv: A TCC officer carrying a veterinary rifle for tranquilizer darts

Taxi drivers are also being used to deliver passengers directly to TCC vehicles. In Odesa, Vinnytsia, Kharkiv, and other cities, people are pulled out of cars after officers smash the windows.

Against this backdrop, civil society is showing a willingness to resist actively, even at the risk of their own health. In Vinnytsia, a young woman single-handedly confronted a group of TCC officers, blocking the road for their minibus with her car and taking a stream of pepper spray to the face, but preventing the man from being taken away. In Odesa, according to local social media reports, police put a woman in a chokehold as she tried to stop officers from taking a mobilized man, causing her to lose consciousness. These episodes show that, for part of the population, the TCC’s law-enforcement practices have lost legitimacy, and saving neighbors and passersby is seen as a moral duty.

The response of those being mobilized is also taking extreme forms. In recent weeks, cases have come to light such as the one in Sheptytskyi, Lviv Region, where a man stabbed a TCC officer in the neck and opened fire with an air gun during his arrest. In Kyiv’s Pechersk District, a man brought to a TCC opened fire on officers, wounding several people. Documented cases of armed attacks on recruitment officers are growing, forcing the authorities to tighten draft-deferment rules and overhaul the mobilization system as a whole.

Police in Kharkiv Region received a batch of vans fitted with anti-riot grilles amid what is reported to be escalating street clashes over mobilization, where crowds have blocked vehicles and forcibly freed detainees


Video Roundup From Recent Days

Chernivtsi. Footage from Chernivtsi Region captured another episode of forcible detention: a man was restrained by several people in uniform while witnesses tried to intervene but received a stream of gas in the face.

Vinnytsia. Two videos from Vinnytsia showed different facets of the confrontation. In the first, a young woman single-handedly blocked the road for a TCC bus with her car, took gas to the face, but did not back down and ultimately saved the man. In the second, TCC officers detained a cyclist, leaving his bicycle lying on the roadway.

Odesa. Videos from Odesa captured the harshest scenes. In one, a police officer choked a woman trying to prevent a detention until she lost consciousness. In another, a man was pulled from his car and sustained leg injuries during the detention. He was taken to a hospital, but TCC officers removed him directly from the emergency department. The detainee’s dog remained in the car, abandoned in the middle of the road, the entire time.

Kyiv. Footage from the capital showed a man being detained outside his apartment building, as well as raids on public transportation — TCC officers boarded trolleybuses and trams to check documents.

Kharkiv. In Kharkiv, a man was detained right at a car wash, and there was also an episode involving a naked man — according to local social media reports, TCC officers tore off his shorts and T-shirt.

Zhytomyr Region. Police struck a cyclist with their car to carry out their scheme.

Kryvyi Rih. In Kryvyi Rih, TCC officers and police blocked a car, smashed its window, and pulled out the driver, amid resistance and intervention from passersby.

Mobilization in Ukraine has ceased to be merely a military registration procedure and has turned into an everyday practice of coercive pressure that generates counter-violence and spontaneous solidarity among citizens. Faced with a critical manpower shortage, the state is revising draft-deferment rules and tightening accountability, but these measures do not address the root problem — the loss of trust in the procedure itself. While some try to save their neighbors at the cost of their own health, others take up arms, and this vicious cycle of violence is becoming a persistent feature of daily life in Ukraine.


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Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 25, 2026 (Maps Update)

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  • Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Odesa, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernihiv regions, and the DPR;
  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 153 strike UAVs;
  • Russian forces struck the Epicentr logistics centre, a distribution centre, and the Vasishchevo logistics terminal in the Kharkiv region;
  • Russian forces struck a dry cargo ship in the port of Chornomorsk;
  • Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,145 personnel over the past 24 hours.

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  • Russian forces advanced in the southern part of Belozerskoye;
  • Russian forces took control of Veseloye Pole and Bokovoye;
  • Russian forces advanced near Mirovoe.

Click to see the full-size image

  • Russian forces advanced in the eastern part of Kondratovka;
  • Russian forces advanced in the area of Raiskoye.

Click to see the full-size image

  • During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 532 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
  • Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the following regions: Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh, Tula, Oryol, Lipetsk, Kaluga, Ryazan, Rostov, Saratov, Samara, Penza, Volgograd, and Ulyanovsk; in the Moscow region; in Perm Krai and Krasnodar Krai; in the Republics of Tatarstan, Adygea, Mari El, Crimea, and Udmurtia; and over the Sea of Azov;
  • Ukrainian strikes killed one civilian and injured 14 others in Belgorod. Houses, cars, social, and commercial facilities were damaged;
  • A Ukrainian drone attacked a minivan in the Bryansk region. Two people were killed, and two were injured;
  • Over the past 24 hours, one person was killed, and five more civilians were injured in the DPR.

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Military Situation In Iran On October 25, 2026 (Map Update)

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  • Iranian air defenses shot down a U.S. LUCAS drone near Bandar Abbas on October 25;
  • Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely restricted, with only three commercial crossings recorded in the 24 hours to October 25, compared with a pre-crisis average of about 85 per day.

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Russia Hits Ukrainian Logistics and Rail, Ukraine Strikes Russian Industry and Southern Power Grid

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On October 24–25, 2026, the Russian Armed Forces continued strikes on Ukraine’s energy, transportation, port, and logistics infrastructure, including facilities the Russian Ministry of Defense identifies as supporting the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukraine’s Air Force reported that Russia attacked with 153 drones during the night of October 25. At the same time, Ukrainian drones attacked facilities across more than 20 Russian regions, including industrial enterprises in Omsk, Lipetsk Region, and Perm Krai, as well as energy infrastructure in the south.

Russian Strikes on Ukraine

Kharkiv Region

  • Epicenter logistics center in Kharkiv. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the facility was used to store dual-use products intended to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The building burned down as a result of the strike; the company reported that it was the “last operating Epicenter in the city.”

  • Distribution center in Kharkiv. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the facility stored and distributed military cargo and dual-use goods for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

  • Vasyshcheve logistics terminal. Used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to store military property and dual-use products.

  • Kharkiv energy infrastructure. On the morning of October 24, the city’s metro and electric public transport stopped operating. Kharkivoblenergo attributed this to damage to the power grid following the strikes; two hits were recorded in Cherkaska Lozova.

Poltava Region

  • Main control panel of the 330 kV Poltava substation. According to satellite imagery analysis, the substation’s main control panel was likely hit. The facility distributes electricity across the region.

  • Epicenter shopping center in Poltava. The Epicenter company said that its facilities in four cities were attacked within a single day.

Odesa Region

  • Port of Chornomorsk, unmanned boat production shop. This target is directly linked to the maritime unmanned platforms used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against ships and coastal infrastructure.

  • Cargo ship bound for Chornomorsk. A maritime vessel that, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, was delivering cargo for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

  • Cargo ship bound for Odesa. A second vessel struck during the day on October 25.

Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Regions

  • Locomotives in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and near Pyatykhatky. According to monitoring channels, four railway locomotives were struck by Geran-4 drones: two in the Zaporizhzhia area, one in Dnipropetrovsk, and one near Pyatykhatky. Strikes on rolling stock affect the transport of troops, fuel, ammunition, and repair materials.

  • Epicenter shopping center in Zaporizhzhia. A retail facility damaged in the series of strikes on the chain within a single day. The company reported a fire following the attack.

Vinnytsia Region

  • Epicenter shopping center in Vinnytsia. Another facility in the chain attacked on October 25.

Reports also indicated strikes on facilities in Rivne, Volyn, Zhytomyr, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy Regions.


Strikes on Russia

Omsk Region

  • Omsk Kauchuk (Titan Group) – A major petrochemical enterprise producing synthetic rubber and chemical products. According to preliminary geolocation, impacts were recorded near Units D-3 and D-5; Unit D-3 is associated with the production of MTBE, a high-octane gasoline additive.

  • Ozon logistics center in Omsk – A warehouse complex damaged in the October 24 attack. Ozon confirmed a fire. The facility is located more than 2,500 kilometers from the combat zone.

Lipetsk Region

  • Energia plant in Yelets – An enterprise producing batteries and accumulators for missile systems, aviation, and other military equipment. According to monitoring channels, the plant was struck by missiles on October 25; Storm Shadow cruise missiles are said to have been used. Civilian infrastructure was also damaged.

Perm Krai

  • AVISMA in Berezniki – A chemical-metallurgical enterprise producing sponge titanium, magnesium, and magnesium alloys. The facility is located approximately 1,630 kilometers from the combat zone.

Belgorod Region

  • MegaGRINN shopping and entertainment center in Belgorod – A large mall that, according to Ukrainian channels, was one of the targets of a massive drone attack. One civilian was killed and 14 people were injured; residential buildings, cars, and public and commercial facilities were damaged.

Bryansk Region

  • A Ukrainian drone attacked a vehicle, killing two people and injuring two others. A Moscow-Novozybkov bus was also attacked near Khalturino; a woman was killed and three people were injured.

Oryol Region

  • Industrial facility in Oryol – According to reports, four people were killed and others remain missing as a result of a missile strike. The specific enterprise was not named in the available information.

Crimea and Krasnodar Krai

  • 500/220 kV Taman substation – A key node through which electricity from southern Russia is supplied to Crimea. According to monitoring channels, the substation was damaged in a drone attack on October 24. Outages were recorded in Sevastopol, Alushta, Yalta, Sudak, and Yevpatoria. Power was later restored.

  • Substation in the village of Bely, Temryuk District – An energy infrastructure facility where a fire broke out. Three settlements were left without electricity.

  • Substation in Myasnikovsky District, Rostov Region – Damaged in a drone attack; 172 homes were left without power.

Samara Region

  • Tolyattikauchuk – A petrochemical plant that, according to local residents and monitoring channels, was one of the targets of the attack. Footage of a large fire circulated online.

Thus, on October 24–25, the Russian side concentrated its efforts in three areas: logistics, maritime shipping, and rail transport. At the same time, strikes were carried out on energy infrastructure, including the Poltava substation and Kharkiv’s power grid. The Ukrainian side, in turn, focused its strikes on petrochemical enterprises deep inside Russia, as well as on energy infrastructure in the south, leading to a brief blackout in Crimea. According to monitoring channels, Ukraine used Storm Shadow missiles and carried out large-scale drone attacks, resulting in civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure in Russia.


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Military Situation In Yemen On October 25, 2026 (Map Update)

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  • The death toll from Saudi airstrikes has reached 193 martyrs and 468 wounded, according to the Sanaa-based government’s Ministry of Health;
  • The Yemeni army (Ansar Allah) reportedly targeted Saudi’s East-West oil pipeline and pumping stations, an Aramco facility in Yanbu and the Rabigh refinery;
  • Saudi Arabia reported intercepting 10 ballistic missiles targeting its southern regions on October 25, alongside additional missiles and drones aimed at other locations.

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FSB Detains German Mercenary Who Fled Ukraine’s Armed Forces Over Unpaid Wages

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) announced the detention of a German citizen who, according to the agency, served as a sniper in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). The man identified himself as Michael Friedrich, born in 1976 in Frechen, North Rhine-Westphalia. His testimony was released in a video distributed by the FSB.

According to Friedrich, he is an active-duty member of AFU unit A4024, holding the rank of corporal and serving as a sniper. “I personally signed the contract on December 5, 2025, for a term of three years,” he said.

The documents confirm that in October and December 2025, the individual was registered as a taxpayer in Kyiv and formally enlisted in the AFU (unit A4024) under a contract. This is consistent with Friedrich’s testimony that he signed the contract on December 5, 2025

The detainee said he served in the Bundeswehr from 1996 to 2008. “During my service, from 2004 to 2006, I took part in combat operations in the Republic of Afghanistan as part of the German contingent,” he stated. He then said he took part in operations in Somalia and, after being discharged, fought in Syria as a mercenary from 2008 to 2010.

He first arrived in Ukraine in 2016 and served in the 25th Territorial Defense Battalion until 2018.

“After signing the necessary documents, I was assigned to the 25th Territorial Defense Battalion. I was on the line of contact in the area of the city of Donetsk,” he said. According to his statement, he did not receive any additional training.

He also stated that the battalion consisted mainly of foreign nationals, including citizens of the United Kingdom and Georgia.

“For participating in combat operations, I received the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) participant award – for sacrifice and love for Ukraine,” he added.

After his first contract ended, he left for Switzerland. In November 2025, he returned to Ukraine with military uniform and equipment. In Kyiv, he claims, he signed a new contract with the AFU.

“After signing the contract, I was promised a payment of 100,000 hryvnias. However, I never received the money and was forced to flee from the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” the detainee said.

The FSB said it is considering opening a criminal case under Article 359 of the Russian Criminal Code – “mercenarism.” The article provides for a prison term of seven to fifteen years.

At the same time, the agency did not disclose the location or circumstances of the detention, or how the man ended up in Russia. The German weekly Der Spiegel reported that it had been able to identify the detainee. According to the publication, Georgian Legion commander Mamuka Mamulashvili confirmed that the man had served in his formation in 2017–2018.

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Thus, the detainee’s participation in combat operations on Ukraine’s side has received additional confirmation. However, his claims of service in the Bundeswehr and participation in operations in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Syria remain unconfirmed.


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Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 24, 2026 (Maps Update)

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  • Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Volyn, Rivne, Ternopil, Zhytomyr regions, and the DPR;
  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 126 strike UAVs;
  • Russian forces struck a UAV workshop in Chornomorsk and a dry cargo ship in Odesa;
  • Russian forces struck energy infrastructure and an industrial facility in Kharkiv;
  • Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,190 troops over the past 24 hours.

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  • Russian forces advanced in the Lukyanovskoye area.

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  • Russian forces advanced southwest of Andreyevka;
  • Russian forces advanced north of Novoandreyevka and reached Roganskoye along the bank of the Vesko River.

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  • During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 616 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
  • Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Volgograd, Voronezh, Kaluga, Kirov, Kursk, Lipetsk, Oryol, Penza, Rostov, Ryazan, Samara, Saratov, Smolensk, Tambov, Tula, and Ulyanovsk regions, the Moscow region, the Republic of Crimea, the Republic of Tatarstan, Krasnodar Krai, and over the waters of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea;
  • Ukrainian strikes caused a blackout in Sevastopol, Alushta, Yalta, Sudak, and Yevpatoria in the Crimean Peninsula;
  • Ukrainian strikes reportedly targeted the petrochemical plant in the Samara region;
  • Ukrainian strikes reportedly targeted a substation in the Rostov region;
  • Ukrainian strikes killed a woman in the Bryansk region.

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THE M-FILES: SF Launches Mercenary Database

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Who went to Ukraine to fight for Kiev? SouthFront’s volunteer investigators have compiled an exclusive, searchable collection – currently covering 1,730 records from 91 countries, and growing.

Naming Names

Recruitment pitches sell a promise. Battlefield headlines capture a moment. Neither tells the whole story.

Explore MERC.SOUTHFRONT.PRESS to look beyond the callsigns.

Search for individuals or browse by nationality. Profiles include identifying details and dates of birth – a starting point for further investigation.

Callsigns Are Not Cover

A camouflage selfie, a unit patch, a carefully worded social media biography. None of these explains what a foreign fighter actually did in Ukraine. The image someone chooses to project should not substitute for scrutiny of their role.

What brought this person to the conflict? Which formations did they serve with? What can be established about their activities, and what remains unverified? These are questions for investigation, not recruitment publicity.

The database will be updated as new information becomes available.

Stay tuned!  MERC.SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

 

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Putin-Witkoff Talks Expose Broken Western Unity On Ukraine

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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher

On October 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin met in St. Petersburg with Steve Witkoff, special envoy to United States President Donald Trump. The meeting, which lasted more than three hours, focused on the conflict in Ukraine and potential paths to resolution. Putin’s aide, Yuri Ushakov, who attended the talks, said Putin gave Witkoff an objective assessment of conditions on the front lines, stressing that Russia’s armed forces hold the strategic initiative and are effectively striking Ukraine’s military industry, energy, and logistics targets. Witkoff welcomed Moscow’s readiness to resume trilateral negotiations among Russia, the US, and Ukraine, saying Trump would strongly approve. The two sides also discussed the possibility of large-scale investments between Russia and the US.

The meeting followed a series of public statements by Trump criticizing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for refusing to pursue a negotiated end to the conflict. Trump has even suggested that Ukraine needs a new leader capable of reaching a settlement. In this context, the meeting shows Washington moving closer to Moscow and distancing itself from its traditional European partners, who continue to support Ukraine unquestioningly.

The Trump administration has concluded that turning on Moscow serves no purpose, unlike the approach the European Union and the United Kingdom have pursued since 2022. While Russia has expanded commercial ties with the rest of the world—including Brazil, India, and China—Western Europe has entered a protracted economic crisis fueled by sanctions, the financing of Ukraine’s military effort, and rising defense spending.

Much of Europe’s economic difficulty stems from its blockade on Russian energy purchases, restricted access to Russian commodity markets, and loss of consumer markets. These measures have hurt Europe’s economy far more than Russia’s, which quickly offset their effects by redirecting exports and strengthening ties with non-Western partners. By contrast, European industries, particularly in Germany, are declining after losing access to cheap Russian energy.

Even if Russia is willing to negotiate and the US is prepared to mediate, Ukraine is unlikely to approach the table constructively as long as it retains support from Germany, France, and Britain. Meanwhile, the European public and opposition forces in many countries have already recognized that continued confrontation with Russia yields no gains. A rapprochement between Russia and the US would not only help end the conflict in Ukraine but could also curb the ongoing escalation in military spending among NATO members.

Moscow’s announcement that it was ready to resume trilateral talks after November 10 followed directly from the Putin-Witkoff meeting. During the meeting, Putin also praised American mediation efforts.

Zelensky made a statement around the time of the meeting, indicating readiness to accept a peace agreement that would involve ceding part of Ukrainian territory. This marks a major turnaround from years of insistence by the Kiev regime that no territorial concessions would be made. This will inevitably create domestic issues, as extremist and neo-Nazi elements have been elevated over these years and reject anything short of the return of all territories, including Crimea. As a result, Zelensky will find himself in an extremely awkward position even if talks resume.

Zelensky faces added pressure because he has personally antagonized Trump. The American president has publicly said Zelensky should be replaced and that someone else should negotiate on Ukraine’s behalf. Intelligence sharing has also been visibly disrupted. Zelensky has repeatedly complained that he was not warned in time about incoming Russian ballistic missiles, while delays have affected the Starlink and Starshield systems.

Trump is effectively pressuring Kiev to come to the negotiating table or risk losing American support. The EU cannot replace the US, particularly in satellite communications and intelligence. Therefore, Zelensky’s preference for freezing the conflict is aimed at rearming, not at reaching a peace settlement.

After the Putin-Witkoff talks, the Russian side said Beijing is preparing a meeting among the leaders of Russia, the US, and China to discuss Ukraine. The meeting could take place on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18–19, and all three leaders have already indicated they will attend. If Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping agree on the basic principles of a peace deal, it will make it nearly impossible for the EU to continue making extreme demands from a different position.

Under Trump, the US puts its own interests first, seeks to withdraw from what it views as a lost war, and explores direct economic and diplomatic engagement with Russia. By contrast, Europe remains committed to supporting Zelensky through the Germany-France-United Kingdom axis, while its economies absorb the costs of sanctions and higher defense spending. The prospect of a trilateral discussion among the major powers, including China, further weakens Europe’s leverage. The St. Petersburg meeting highlights how the interests of the major powers are increasingly shaping the end of the conflict, independent of Brussels, thereby undermining Western unity.


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Russia Fires Missiles at Kyiv as Ukraine Sends 600+ Drones Toward Moscow

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On the night of October 22, Russian forces launched a massive combined strike on Ukraine using Iskander-M, Zircon, and Oniks missiles and 210 strike UAVs; the main axis of the strike was Kyiv. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the targets were military-industrial enterprises producing cruise missiles and medium- and long-range unmanned aerial vehicles, transport infrastructure in Kyiv, as well as port infrastructure in Odesa Region and maritime vessels used in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine carried out a massive drone attack on Russian territory: according to Russian sources, 808 UAVs were shot down over 18 federal subjects of the Russian Federation, including 630 on approach to Moscow.

Russian Strikes on Ukraine by Region

Kyiv and Kyiv Region

  • Antonov State Enterprise (Kyiv) — an aircraft manufacturer whose facilities, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, were used to produce medium- and long-range unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles and FP-7 and FP-9 operational-tactical missiles. The facility was part of Ukraine’s military-industrial production chain for long-range strike systems.

  • Khladokombinat No. 3 warehouse complex (Kyiv) — according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the warehouse premises were used to produce fixed-wing medium- and long-range unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as Hornet loitering munitions. The use of a civilian warehouse for drone production reflects the dispersal of manufacturing across dual-use sites.

  • Industrial enterprise producing UAVs and robotic-system components (Kyiv). The Armed Forces of Ukraine use robotic systems for logistics, evacuation, and fire support at forward positions.

  • Storage site for unmanned aerial vehicles and jet boosters (Kyiv) — a storage facility for strike drones and boosters used to increase the range and speed of fixed-wing UAVs.

  • Southern Road-Rail Bridge (Kyiv) — a bridge crossing over the Dnieper used to move military cargo by road and rail between the right and left banks. According to Ukrainian sources, the strike damaged subway infrastructure on the bridge; service on the Green Line was suspended between the Vydubychi and Osokorky stations, and road traffic across the bridge was temporarily closed in both directions.

  • CHP-4 and CHP-5 (Kyiv) — large combined heat and power plants supplying electricity and heat to urban infrastructure and industrial facilities, including military-industrial enterprises. According to monitoring channels, fires were recorded at the facilities; the Ukrainian Air Force acknowledged that not a single ballistic missile was intercepted.

  • PS-330 Novokyivska substation (Khotov, Kyiv Region) — a 330 kV substation supplying power to nodes of the Kyiv Region energy system, including military-industrial facilities and logistics centers.

Odesa Region

  • Kiliia port infrastructure (Odesa Region) — port facilities used to unload and store military supplies delivered to Ukraine from abroad. The port is located on the Danube and serves as an alternative supply route after operations at Black Sea ports were restricted. Strikes on unloading and storage facilities complicate the receipt and distribution of foreign military assistance.

  • Three bulk carriers at sea (bound for the ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk) — strikes on vessels approaching the ports complicate the delivery of military supplies and create risks for shipping in the northwestern Black Sea.

Zhytomyr Region

  • PS-330 Zhytomyrska substation (Zhytomyr) — a 330 kV substation supplying electricity to Zhytomyr Region and carrying power between regions.

Kharkiv Region

  • Truck parking area (Kharkiv) — according to monitoring channels, a Geran drone strike destroyed about 10 trucks. The site is used to transport military and logistics cargo; the loss of vehicles reduces the road logistics capacity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv and Sumy directions.

  • Railway locomotive (Kharkiv) — a UAV strike damaged a Ukrzaliznytsia locomotive. Rail transport remains the primary means of moving military equipment and personnel; the loss of a locomotive complicates rail traffic in the Kharkiv direction.

Kirovohrad Region

  • Production and warehouse complex (Kirovohrad) — according to monitoring channels, the facility was attacked by Geran-4 drones on the evening of October 21.

Poltava Region

  • Television and radio company building (Kremenchuk) — the facility provided broadcasting and communications, including for military needs.

Strikes on Russia

  • Moscow and Moscow Region — according to Russian sources, 630 UAVs were shot down on approach to Moscow overnight; Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said most were intercepted at distant lines, with 163 downed closer to the city. Monitoring channels claim that a Flamingo missile was shot down over Serpukhov; Ukrainian sources claim an attack on the Russian Defense Ministry enterprise JSC 75 Arsenal, a facility for storing and preparing ammunition.

  • Belgorod Region — 205 UAVs were shot down over the past day; according to Russian sources, three civilians were injured. Belgorod Region is regularly targeted by drone attacks aimed at energy, transport, and civilian infrastructure.

  • Lipetsk Region — as a UAV passed through the city toward Moscow Region, a multi-story residential building and a medical facility were damaged. Lipetsk is a major transport hub on the Moscow–south axis; drones passing through the city create risks for civilian infrastructure.

The Russian strike on October 22 was combined in nature and focused on two interrelated areas: the production of aerial attack systems (Antonov State Enterprise, Khladokombinat No. 3, and UAV and booster storage sites) and the transport and energy infrastructure supporting their use and the supply of Ukrainian forces (the Southern Bridge, CHP-4 and CHP-5, the Novokyivska and Zhytomyrska substations, Kiliia port, and vessels at sea).

Ukrainian strikes were concentrated on Moscow Region (630 UAVs shot down, according to Russian sources) and Belgorod Region (205 UAVs shot down), with sporadic drone passages through Lipetsk and Tula Region. The intensity of attacks on Moscow remains high, although Russian sources report that most drones were intercepted at distant lines. The intensity of attacks on Moscow remains high, although Russian sources report that most drones were intercepted at distant lines. In the medium term, Russian strikes on UAV and missile production chains, as well as on energy infrastructure supporting the military-industrial complex, will continue; Ukraine will likely maintain its course of massive drone attacks on Moscow Region and border regions.


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