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Gulf states must rethink trillion-dollar defence in light of US-Iran war, says report

IISS study questions over-reliance on American support and ‘over-dependence on expensive, high-end systems’

Gulf states are going to have to reconfigure their trillion-dollar defences given the damage inflicted on their economies and the questionable continued value of US bases in the face of Iranian attack, according to a study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The report says that in the weeks before the 8 April ceasefire, 12 regional states, overwhelmingly in the Gulf, faced 4,670 Iranian one-way attack drones and more than 1,400 ballistic missiles. Nearly half were aimed at the United Arab Emirates. Although the vast majority were repelled, one estimate of the damage to energy infrastructure cited by the report is put as high as $58bn (£43bn).

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© Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Houthis sending Taiz ‘back to the stone age’, governor of besieged Yemen city says

Oxygen, food and water supplies running low and massacres taking place, says Nabil Shamsan

The Houthis are trying to send the city of Taiz back to the stone age, the city’s governor said in a briefing designed to urge the international community to do more to lift the month-long siege.

Nabil Shamsan said massacres were taking place in Yemen’s third city, that oxygen and water supplies were running out and that rubbish was piling up in the streets due to landfill sites being either full or inaccessible.

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© Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Comprehensive sovereignty is the major challenge of the 2026 Russia-Africa Summit

By: A A
30 October 2026 at 08:30

Education binds generations. But “provided sovereignty” is ambivalent – can you build it for someone else?

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Reflection and outlook

The speech delivered by Vladimir Putin on October 28, 2026, at the Gostiny Dvor in Moscow, at the opening of the plenary session of the Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum, lends itself to two interpretations. The first, the most immediate, reduces it to a catalog: wheat, fertilizers, hydroelectric power plants, scholarships, mobile laboratories, and language models. The second takes it for what it is: a programmatic text that would be translated the following day into the 2027–2029 Partnership Action Plan. The summit is the third in the series, following those in Sochi and St. Petersburg. The continuity of the format already speaks volumes: the Russian-African relationship has moved beyond the phase of declarations and is seeking a framework.

Moscow does not offer Africa a volume of resources capable of competing head-to-head with Beijing or Brussels, and it knows this; instead, it offers a set of infrastructures related to sovereignty – food, energy, finance, digital technology, and education – whose political value exceeds its accounting value. The geopolitical value of this cooperation lies in this gap. Its limitations, which do exist, lie in the very same point.

The word that underpins the entire discourse is “sovereignty.” Putin uses it about twenty times, but what matters is the definition he provides halfway through the text. It is no longer merely about control over territory and borders: sovereignty encompasses the political and financial stability of the system, the availability of food, water, and energy, reliable transportation and communications, and a distinct cultural identity. Added to this list is a further layer: jurisdiction over data, platforms, and artificial intelligence models.

This expanded definition has a precise logical consequence. If sovereignty consists of material and technical elements, then it can be built – and if it can be built, it can also be provided by a partner. Sovereignty thus becomes, in the Kremlin’s discourse, something to be exchanged: Russia provides the technical means by which African countries can reduce their dependence on other suppliers. It is no coincidence that Putin concludes by announcing a “platform for the sovereign development of African states,” designed in Russia and presented at a dedicated exhibition. This formula carries an obvious ambivalence, which we will return to.

The second theme is that of anti-colonial memory. The quote from Thomas Sankara on debt as a form of neocolonialism – in which the colonizers have transformed themselves into “technical assistants” – is no mere ornament. Sankara is a figure who speaks to the new leadership in the Sahel – particularly in Ouagadougou – and whom urban African youth know well. Invoking him in Moscow means situating Russia within an African, not a Soviet, genealogy. The next passage makes the strategy explicit: the continent’s infrastructure was built to export raw materials to the metropolises; manufacturing value-added remains below 2 percent; and intra-African trade accounts for barely 15 percent of a total trade volume of 1,500 billion dollars. This diagnosis is the same as that found in African literature on structural dependence. Moscow embraces this analysis and presents itself as the means to overcome it.

The scale of trade

The Russian president has stated that Russian-African trade will exceed $27 billion in 2025, up from $18 billion in 2022, and has set a target of surpassing $50 billion “in the near future.” This growth is real and, considering that it occurred under the most extensive sanctions regime ever imposed on a G20 economy, politically significant. It indicates that a substantial number of African governments have chosen not to align with Western measures and have paid the price for this choice in terms of diplomatic pressure. Putin openly acknowledges this when he thanks his partners for their “firm and principled stance.”

This is a market thatcan still grow – if that is the goal. China’s trade with the continent is in the range of $300 billion, as is that of the European Union. Russia’s trade is less than one-tenth of either of those figures. Not only that: the balance is highly asymmetrical. Russian agricultural exports to Africa reached 13 million metric tons in the first nine months of 2026, while imports of African agricultural products totaled about $4 billion – 8 percent of Russia’s needs. Putin himself admits that the figure is low and that it will have to grow. This admission is significant because it touches on the most sensitive point of anti-colonial rhetoric: a partner that sells grain, fertilizers, and weapons but buys very little replicates, in numerical terms, the very structure that the discourse denounces.

This leads to an initial assessment. Russia competes in niches where it enjoys comparative advantages that are difficult to replicate: grains and fertilizers, civil nuclear power, hydroelectric power, mining, higher education, and military cooperation. These are sectors in which the quantity of capital matters less than its strategic nature. A country that depends on Russia for wheat and on Russia for its nuclear power plant has a closer tie to Moscow than the monetary value of trade would suggest.

The most important levers: food, energy, currency

The first lever is food security. Over forty African countries import Russian wheat and fertilizers, and for some, supplies have multiplied. This data must be viewed alongside the demographic trends mentioned in the same speech: over 2.5 billion inhabitants by 2050, 70 percent of whom will be under thirty, according to United Nations projections. For a continent with this demographic trajectory, the price of bread is a key factor in political stability, and whoever guarantees the continuity of supply gains a form of credit that does not appear on any trade balance. Putin, however, adds a new element: the provision of seeds, machinery, logistics, and processing capabilities to support African agricultural self-sufficiency within the framework of the African Union’s program. On the surface, this offer reduces dependence on Russian wheat; in practice, it shifts dependence from the product itself to the technological supply chain.

The second lever is energy. The reference to the 55th anniversary of the Aswan Dam serves as historical proof of reliability. The present is entrusted to RusHydro, to modular power generation for isolated areas, and above all to civilian nuclear power, which was mentioned among the forum’s topics. Putin speaks of over thirty energy projects in sixteen countries. Nuclear power has a distinctive feature that makes it geopolitically more significant than any other sector: a power plant binds supplier and customer together for sixty or seventy years, encompassing fuel, maintenance, staff training, and waste management. It is a form of cooperation that outlasts governments.

The third lever – the least spectacular – is probably the most important from a structural standpoint. Putin proposes consolidating settlements in national currencies, expanding banking correspondent networks, opening cross-border branches, and linking Russia’s SPFS to the Pan-African PAPSS. The PAPSS (Pan-African Payment and Settlement System) was developed by Afreximbank in collaboration with the AfCFTA Secretariat and launched commercially in January 2022. The SPFS is the Bank of Russia’s financial messaging system, operational since 2014 as an alternative to SWIFT. The stated goal is to reduce transaction costs and shield payments from “politically motivated interference.” Then comes a sentence that, in the report, goes almost unnoticed: some countries do not have their own financial systems and are tied to European ones, which limits their sovereignty. The reference is to the CFA franc zone. This is the first time, in a speech of this caliber, that the monetary issue has been linked so directly to the question of African sovereignty. The message is directed primarily at the governments of the Alliance of Sahelian States, which have turned the monetary issue into a political one.

This third point warrants careful consideration. The link between the SPFS and the PAPSS, if established, would create a payment circuit between Russia and Africa entirely outside Western infrastructure. The significance of this circuit, however, would depend on the liquidity circulating within it, and liquidity depends on trade volumes, which, as we have seen, remain modest. It is more likely, in the medium term, that the PAPSS will gain significance as an intra-African infrastructure and that the Russian connection will be one component among others, alongside those from China, India, and the United Arab Emirates. Even so, it would be a success for Moscow: there is no need to dominate an alternative circuit; it is enough to contribute to making it possible.

But also technology

The section dedicated to technological sovereignty is the most assertive part of the speech. Putin claims a complete value chain for generative artificial intelligence, two national language models, banking and healthcare platforms, and digital administration systems that he offers to African partners. More than two hundred officials from twenty countries have already participated in skills-transfer programs on digital administration.

Here, the ambivalence of “provided sovereignty” becomes evident. An e-government system, a healthcare data platform, or a language model are not neutral assets: whoever controls the code, updates, and hosting retains the ability to access and influence them. The problem does not concern Russia alone – and applies even more to U.S. and Chinese platforms already entrenched on the continent – but the speech does not address this. From an African perspective, the advantage lies in diversification: having a third provider increases bargaining power vis-à-vis the other two. This is the logic of multi-alignment that many African foreign ministries have been practicing for years, and which Russia supports rather than opposes.

Education is the area where continuity with the Soviet experience is most pronounced. Forty thousand African students are enrolled in Russian universities – a 50 percent increase since 2020 – with 5,500 government scholarships for the 2026–2027 academic year, the Russian-African University Network with over seventy universities in seventeen countries, consortia specializing in mineral resources and transportation, and fifty-eight open education centers in twenty-nine countries. The Patrice Lumumba University remains the symbolic reference point. This is the slowest-moving component of the strategy, and also the one that yields the greatest returns. The engineers, doctors, and civil servants being trained today in Moscow and St. Petersburg will, in fifteen or twenty years, hold decision-making positions in African governments and businesses, bringing with them language skills, technical standards, and personal networks. The generation of African professionals trained in the USSR sustained a significant portion of Russian-African relations for decades, even after 1991.

The same applies to the media. The call to build a “common media space” – through the expansion of regional offices of Russian news agencies and a greater presence of African journalists in Russia – is a response to a narrative competition that Moscow considers an integral part of the game. The African continent is today one of the main arenas where the ability to produce competing interpretations of the international order is put to the test.

Africa is becoming polarized, and Russia is facilitating the process

At the systemic level, this discourse places Africa within the multipolar framework in terms different from those typically used in Western rhetoric. The continent is not viewed as a recipient of aid but as one of the emerging poles of the global economy and politics, represented by three members in the BRICS. The reference to the BRICS’ share of global GDP – which exceeds that of the G7 – must be contextualized, but the political point is clear: Africa is being encouraged to view its demographic and economic growth as a source of power rather than merely a development challenge.

Within this framework, Russia presents itself as a facilitator of African agency rather than as a hegemonic power, and this role suits it for a practical reason: it lacks the means to be hegemonic. It supports Africa within multilateral institutions, where Moscow proposes strengthening the African voice in the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. It consolidates this support through its backing of the AfCFTA, which Putin cites in positive terms and which represents the only project capable of addressing the fragmentation of African markets inherited from the colonial era. The calculation can be interpreted in realist terms. A more integrated and autonomous Africa reduces the scope for Western influence – which is Moscow’s primary objective – without requiring Russia to make investments it could not sustain.

The benefit for Moscow is threefold. First, the vote: 54 African states carry weight in the General Assembly, and their abstention or non-alignment on resolutions regarding the conflict in Ukraine has already demonstrated how valuable this is. Second, access: critical mineral resources, outlets for agricultural and energy exports, and markets for Russian technology excluded from Western markets. Third, legitimacy: a summit in Moscow attended by dozens of African delegations effectively refutes the claim that Russia is internationally isolated. And, throughout all this, the summit did not address the important military alliance between Russia and the Sahel, a topic for discussion on other occasions.

The success of Russian-African cooperation will be measured by the ability to truly transfer expertise, to localize the processing of raw materials, and to rebalance trade. Herein lies Russia’s greatest challenge: to help Africa, not to make it dependent. Sankara, whom Putin quoted, warned precisely against those who present themselves as technical advisors. African governments will judge Moscow on this basis, not on the words spoken at Gostiny Dvor.

¿Puede África saltarse etapas en su senda de desarrollo?

30 October 2026 at 04:30

El concepto de leapfrogging equivale en teoría a ahorro de tiempo y dinero en zonas pobres y rezagadas. Evoca innovación y otras formas de imaginar el porvenir. Y está rodeada por un halo de modernidad, con propuestas que oscilan entre lo razonable y los sortilegios tecno-optimistas. Tan halagüeños algunos, que permiten vislumbrar a frágiles economías encabezando la vanguardia digital en tiempo récord, como en un sueño futurista.

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© NurPhoto (NurPhoto via Getty Images)

El ministro de Economía Digital de Nigeria, Bosun Tijani, interviene en una cumbre mundial centrada en la prevención de interrupciones en las redes de conectividad globales, en febrero de 2025 en la capital, Abuya.

Friday briefing: Israel has a dilemma - can its opposition govern with Palestinian parties?

30 October 2026 at 06:44

In today’s newsletter: Benjamin Netanyahu has been left without a majority, now it is up to the coalition to find out whether the desire for change will prove to be a defining political moment

Good morning. It was described by many Israelis as the most consequential election in their country’s history. And, as the final votes were tallied, it has delivered a result that presents Israel with a significant dilemma.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition has lost its mandate while the opposition has a clear majority: but only if the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc, led by retired general Gadi Eisenkot, is prepared to make a governing pact with Palestinian Israeli parties, which have secured a historic result.

UK politics | John Healey has backed away from cutting the cost of welfare this parliament, amid dire warnings his first budget could lead to brutal spending cuts because of a £28bn shortfall in public finances.

Patrick Stewart | The acclaimed British stage and screen actor renowned for both Shakespeare and sci-fi, died at his home in Los Angeles after “a brief and poignant journey with Alzheimer’s disease and Lewy body dementia”, his longtime spokesperson said.

Environment | One of the most ambitious nature recovery projects ever undertaken in England can go ahead after campaigners announced they had raised £30m to buy an estate in Northumberland.

Europe | Spain began three days of mourning on Thursday for at least 69 people who died in a high-speed rail collision, as hospitals continued to treat dozens of injured passengers and train drivers went on strike to urge more investment in railway safety.

US news | The Trump administration has opened a criminal investigation in California over claims that thousands of noncitizens are registered to vote in the state, and has begun subpoenaing election officials.

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© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

Sinkholes, scarred land and scapegoats: the scourge of illegal gold mining in Johannesburg

There is no end in sight for the drivers of illegal mining, while police action appears ineffective

Cora Bailey has been encountering illegal miners ever since she first started treating injured animals in the townships around Roodepoort, west of Johannesburg, in 1991. But as the price of gold has soared, so too has activity in the abandoned mine shafts that mark the area.

In late September, dozens of zama zamas – the name given to illegal miners in South Africa, meaning roughly “to take a chance” in Zulu – arrived to dig for gold across the dirt road from her charity, Claw (Community Led Animal Welfare).

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© Photograph: James Oatway/The Guardian

© Photograph: James Oatway/The Guardian

© Photograph: James Oatway/The Guardian

Sudanese diaspora and human rights groups denounce UAE nominee for UN top job

Critics cite Lana Nusseibeh’s denial of accusations the UAE is fuelling Sudan war by supporting paramilitary RSF

Members of the Sudanese diaspora and international human rights monitors have denounced the candidature of an Emirati diplomat for the top job at the UN, citing her denial of accusations that the United Arab Emirates is fuelling the war in Sudan by supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

The UAE nominated Lana Nusseibeh last week to replace the UN secretary general, António Guterres, as he finishes his second five-year term ⁠this year, upending a race that had become gridlocked.

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© Photograph: David Dee Delgado/Reuters

© Photograph: David Dee Delgado/Reuters

© Photograph: David Dee Delgado/Reuters

Los derechos retroceden en África occidental: pena de muerte, persecución de homosexuales y arrestos arbitrarios

30 October 2026 at 04:30

Los derechos y libertades están en retroceso en África occidental. Ocho años después de su abolición, Burkina Faso acaba de reinstaurar la pena de muerte para delitos como la alta traición, el terrorismo o actos de espionaje. Hace un año, incluyó a la homosexualidad en la categoría de delitos con pena de cárcel, mientras su vecino Senegal endurecía hasta los ocho años de prisión los castigos contra los gais. Tanto en Burkina Faso como en Malí y Níger, el arresto y encarcelamiento de periodistas y activistas se ha convertido en moneda corriente. Hace apenas una década, esta región presumía de ser la excepción democrática de África. En la actualidad, nada menos que seis de sus 15 países están gobernados por militares o viven bajo regímenes autocráticos.

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© Anadolu (Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

El presidente de Burkina Faso, Ibrahim Traoré (izq), se reúne con el presidente de Malí, Assimi Goïta, en Bamako, en noviembre de 2022.

Primer ministro de Etiopía concluyó visita en Rusia

30 October 2026 at 04:54

Moscú, 30 oct (Prensa Latina) El primer ministro Abiy Ahmed regresa hoy a Etiopía tras concluir su participación en la Tercera Cumbre Rusia-África, visita que puso de relieve el potencial de la asociación estratégica entre Addis Abeba y Moscú para generar resultados tangibles.

The post Primer ministro de Etiopía concluyó visita en Rusia first appeared on Noticias Prensa Latina.

Third Russia-Africa Summit Ends With AI Deal, 2027-29 Action Plan

30 October 2026 at 00:49
Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that bilateral relations are underpinned by historical bonds of friendship for the building of a multipolar world order, genuinely democratic and free from impositions or hegemonic double standards. Photo: Russia-Africa Summit.

The third Russia-Africa Summit concluded in October 29 in Moscow with a final declaration deepening strategic cooperation and a 2027-2029 action plan, as Vladimir Putin framed the partnership as a pillar of a multipolar world free from neocolonial practices.


The 3rd Russia-Africa Summit concluded on October 29 at the Kremlin, where the plenary session approved the final declaration, a specific agreement on artificial intelligence, and the action plan that will govern the 2027-2029 period, presenting the A7 platform as a sovereign alternative to Western banking.

These documents set out the agreed roadmap for expanding cooperation between Moscow and African states while advancing what both sides describe as a fairer international system. A world order free from hegemonies ultimately summarizes the goal declared by the parties.

RELATED: Moscow Hails Africa as Multipolar Pillar Ahead of Russia-Africa Summit

The final declaration consolidates what the Kremlin describes as steady progress toward a just international system, while the separate statement on artificial intelligence opens a new technological front in the partnership.

Alongside the summit, the Economic and Humanitarian Forum also took place, serving as a platform to deepen bilateral exchange. According to participants, the forum sought a joint response to financial pressures and coercive measures imposed by Western countries.

Multipolar Order Takes Shape

Addressing the plenary session, Vladimir Putin stated that bilateral relations rest on a shared history of friendship, which he described as the foundation for a global architecture with multiple centers of power and no double standards. In this sense, the Russian President reaffirmed his country’s commitment to international law, the Charter of the United Nations (UN), and the sovereignty of African nations, which he argued is essential for strengthening their economies and social sectors.

The model currently promoted by Moscow combines technology transfer with sovereign investment. Through this approach, the parties reaffirm their rejection of resource exploitation and their commitment to stronger cooperation across the Global South.

Putin insisted that the Russian business model breaks sharply with the extractivism practiced throughout history by the imperial powers of the collective West. “Their approach is the exact opposite. Far from extracting profits in the manner of the colonial practices once employed by former imperial powers, they reinvest their earnings in the development of their national economies,” the Russian leader said.

This combination of technology transfer and sovereign investment, he argued, underpins the rejection of resource plunder and moves forward the integration of the Global South on more equal terms.

🇷🇺🌍 Putin Pushes for $50B+ Russia–Africa Trade and Alternatives to Western Finance

At the Russia–Africa summit in Moscow, Putin called for doubling bilateral trade, expanding payments in national currencies and sharing Russian technology in energy, AI, agriculture and… pic.twitter.com/JJ8ZaU53v3

— Think BRICS (@RealBRICSnews) October 29, 2026

Sovereign Payment Alternative

Russian President Putin underscored the operational efficiency of the A7 platform, explaining that conversions between currencies, digital ones included, are processed instantly, slashing the costs, delays and financial intermediation that have long made Global South trade more expensive.

“Digital currencies are developing all over the world, both in the United States and here in Russia, but why can’t the African continent connect to this high-tech system?” he asked the international delegates. His answer was unequivocal. “This system is sovereign as well. It is not tied to anyone or anything, and nobody is going to block it,” he stressed.

⚡️Russia showcases payment systems operating beyond Western control

Finance Minister #Siluanov highlighted Russian company A7, which is preparing to offer cross-border payment services in #Africa, with transactions processed "in one click" for a fee of just 0.3% pic.twitter.com/xFlbWGK15b

— Russian Embassy in South Africa 🇷🇺 (@EmbassyofRussia) October 29, 2026

Created in the wake of the Western financial measures introduced in 2022, the A7 platform now processes around 2,000 transactions per day on average. It is being presented to African countries as a mechanism for selling raw materials, purchasing industrial inputs, financing infrastructure projects, and importing food using their own currencies, without relying on Western banking systems or their associated conditions and transaction costs.

The action plan running through 2029 supplies the framework for converting the summit’s pledges into concrete mechanisms over the next three years, consolidating what both parties describe as movement toward a just international system.

Tunisians drawn into Russia's war in Ukraine

29 October 2026 at 21:48
In tonight's edition: Concern is growing in Tunisia as the families of several men who travelled to Russia for work or study are still searching for an answer about the fate of their loved ones forcibly conscripted to the war in Ukraine. Also, a year after Tanzania's controversial election, fear hasn't faded. And Dakar is ready to make history, as the first Olympic event ever held on African soil gets underway this weekend. 

Across Africa: Real estate scams growing in Ivory Coast

29 October 2026 at 21:43
This week in Across Africa: in Ivory Coast, severe housing shortage has fueled demand for land, creating opportunities for fraudsters selling fake properties and non-existent plots. Also, Kenya’s women are changing the game. From the track to the boxing ring, female athletes are delivering some of the country’s biggest sporting successes. And Addis Ababa pushes ahead with ambitious plans to become East Africa’s clean-energy powerhouse.

How the UAE is fueling Sudan’s catastrophic war

29 October 2026 at 23:15

Sudan’s “civil war” is a proxy war for gold, now waged from above with foreign-armed drones. Journalist and researcher Mosaab Baba says Sudan’s “gold curse” has both the army and the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) increasingly striking civilian targets in a neocolonial war entering its fourth year, which has already killed thousands of civilians and left millions facing famine.

With most of Sudan’s gold now funneled to Abu Dhabi, Baba tells Rania Khalek and Zoe Alexandra the country has become a “backyard” for the UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to extract precious minerals, farmland and access to the Red Sea. A year after the fall of El Fasher, he also explains why the world’s largest humanitarian crisis keeps slipping out of the headlines. Baba also unpacks how the legacy of the December Revolution still offers hope for a sovereign, people-led Sudan, and lays out the stakes driving the Sudanese campaign against Emirati diplomat Lana Nusseibeh’s potential bid to become the next UN secretary-general.

“The only glimmer of hope is that Sudanese people themselves are starting to realize how insane this war is [and] how much they need to remove these neocolonial leaders from the country.”

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Rough transcript follows:
[Speaker 1:] The UAE is the main culprit in pushing for the RSF to take over Sudan, driven by the gold trade and regional domination. They’re closely allied with the Ethiopian government, and unfortunately, Abiy Ahmed is aligned with them, though not fully carrying out their wishes. They have a strong influence on Chad and are the biggest investors in Egypt. This is why we explain this as a neo-colonial war. These powers might support both sides but have no issues with each other.

[Speaker 2:] Moving on to Sudan, another drone strike occurred this week, blamed on the Sudanese army, killing dozens in a crowded market in Nala. The RSF’s de facto capital in Darfur was affected, and RSF drones knocked out power across central and eastern Sudan, including Khartoum. Sudanese journalist and researcher Mossab Baba joins us to discuss this proxy war, now in its fourth year, and the foreign-supplied weapons that have killed thousands of civilians.

[Speaker 3:] Thank you for having me. I appreciate it.

[Speaker 2:] We appreciate your time and analysis. Let’s start with the latest in Nala. Local tolls range from 21 to over a hundred killed. The army claims it’s softening RSF positions ahead of a ground assault. This follows hundreds killed in drone strikes last week. Is this recent strike the opening of a push into Darfur?

[Speaker 3:] There have been changes in how both sides conduct this war, with drone strikes becoming more prominent. It shifted from relying on mortars and ground forces to drone strikes over the last year and a half. The pattern is unusual; whenever there’s stagnation between the forces, drones start firing. The SAF targets markets, as seen in Nala and a disputed area between Sudan and South Sudan.

After these attacks, the RSF retaliates by hitting civilian infrastructure in SAF areas, leaving millions without power. The strikes in Nala were fatal, and similar incidents have occurred before, like in West Darfur. This shift to drone warfare is partly due to the increasing international drone market, with both sides having partners willing to supply weapons. The SAF, as the official army, faces fewer issues bringing in weapons, but the RSF relies on a network traced by a UN report, mainly through Libya and Chad.

[Speaker 2:] The Sudanese citizen is being pummeled by this war, and neither side takes responsibility. The SAF doesn’t acknowledge strikes hitting civilians, and the RSF remains silent on their attacks. This leads to speculation about rogue elements within these camps. The SAF camp is fragmented, with different factions and militias, while the RSF has rogue elements crossing borders.

[Speaker 3:] The use of drones is a dangerous escalation in this war, now over three years old, causing one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes. International players are involved on both sides. This isn’t merely a Sudanese conflict. Powers like the UAE, Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are involved. How did Sudan become a battleground for these powers?

[Speaker 3:] The SAF and RSF were part of the same government under an imperial order. Decisions about Sudan go through Cairo, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh. This control carries over from the Bashir regime, which handed Sudan to Gulf countries. Both SAF and RSF were recruited for the war in Yemen in 2015 and remain there. The war’s goal was to kill the people’s movement calling for sovereignty and wealth redistribution. The West views these demands as socialism, though in Sudan, it’s seen as government responsibility.

Forcing Sudan to sign the Abraham Accords is another factor. Netanyahu often includes Sudan in his maps of the new Middle East. This is a late-stage neo-colonial order, with military forces lacking loyalty to the Sudanese people, allowing countries like Turkey, the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia to exploit Sudan for resources like gold and farmland.

[Speaker 2:] Speaking of resources, what’s up for grabs in Sudan? Gold, farmland, Red Sea access—what are foreign powers targeting?

[Speaker 3:] Gold is the most fatal, with the RSF utilizing it economically. Most gold ends up in the UAE, which has destabilized regions for gold mines. This gold rush causes instability, similar to the oil curse. Livestock is a close second, while agriculture struggles due to sustainability issues and food crises. Gold is a quick fix for militias and warlords running the economy and war.

[Speaker 2:] It’s been one year since the ethnic cleansing in Al-Fashir, and several massacres have occurred since. Why hasn’t Sudan registered more on people’s radars? What international efforts are being made to end the conflict, and who’s stopping them?

[Speaker 3:] Internally, there are efforts for national dialogue and a negotiated end to the war. Political parties and traditional leadership engage in people-to-people dialogue. Activists, especially in the diaspora, campaign against the UAE, which lobbies the UN and influences US policy. The UAE’s deep pockets are the main reason this conflict lacks attention. They’re pushing for the RSF to take over Sudan for gold trade and regional domination.

[Speaker 2:] Eight years ago, the Sudanese revolution began, a hopeful moment for organizing across sectors. Now, the military establishment has co-opted and crushed it. Your thoughts on this?

[Speaker 3:] The December revolution was a historic moment, uniting Sudan against the Bashir government. It was coerced by leadership and countries pressuring the military. Protests in Khartoum last December remembered the revolution. Many volunteers and activists emerged from it, maintaining social fabric and aid efforts. The revolution’s core discourse remains valid, and though affected by war, it will manifest differently as people realize the war’s insanity.

[Speaker 2:] Before we wrap up, regarding the UAE, one name floated for the next UN Secretary-General is Lana Nusseibeh, an Emirati diplomat. After the UN accused the RSF of genocide, she dismissed the allegations. If she becomes Secretary-General, it could undermine confidence in international bodies. Any thoughts?

[Speaker 3:] People see through it. Human rights organizations are making noise about this. Sudanese have a campaign against her appointment. If she’s allowed to become Secretary-General, it will erode trust in international bodies. The UN’s role in documenting atrocities is crucial, and her appointment would damage confidence in any Western body, even those with good intentions.

[Speaker 2:] Thank you, Mossab, for your time and analysis. We look forward to speaking with you again soon.

[Speaker 3:] Thank you, Ronnie and Zoe. Appreciate it.

JD Vance letter may offer last chance to avert fresh conflict between US and Iran

US vice-president writes to top Iranian security official in sign Washington has not abandoned diplomacy

Hopes of averting a major new conflagration between Iran and the US soon after Tuesday’s midterm elections could rest on Iran’s response to a personal letter from the US vice-president, JD Vance, offering to restart diplomacy.

The letter, written after predominantly Qatari mediation, was sent to the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, Mohsen Rezaei on Sunday. It requires Tehran to agree to make commitments on its nuclear programme at the start of a process that would lead to the opening of the strait of Hormuz within seven days in return for US sanctions relief.

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© Photograph: Evan Vucci/Pool Reuters/AP

© Photograph: Evan Vucci/Pool Reuters/AP

© Photograph: Evan Vucci/Pool Reuters/AP

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