Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told US President Donald Trump by phone on 28 October that Türkiye is ready to support efforts to revive Ukraine-Russia diplomacy and end the war that way, the Turkish presidency’s Directorate of Communications said. The same day, a White House official said the US will join the next round of talks with Kyiv and Moscow.

Talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US have been stalled since winter, and the fight now is over timing. On 27 October, Zelenskyy said Kyiv wants that round before a Putin-Trump-Xi summit, which would leave Ukraine out of the room. Putin proposed that summit, The Wall Street Journal reported. Ankara’s statement names neither track, but Ukraine sits at the table only in the first.

Ankara offers support, but no date or venue

The statement named no date or Turkish venue. In July, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in Kyiv that the Türkiye-mediated Istanbul talks should continue in the same format. Türkiye hosted Russia-Ukraine talks in 2022 and 2025. The 2 June 2025 round in Istanbul ended with a prisoner swap deal but no ceasefire. In March, Zelenskyy named Türkiye among possible venues.

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Everyone says soon, but no date is set

On 28 October, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed it was premature to talk about Abu Dhabi: a contact was expected soon and Abu Dhabi had been mentioned as a venue, but Russia was still preparing. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov claimed the talks would come after 4 November, with the date depending in part on the battlefield. On 27 October, Ukrainian presidential adviser Dmytro Lytvyn told journalists it was too early for announcements. A day later, Zelenskyy told The Sun that the round could come as soon as 10 November.

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The White House official told Türkiye Today that the US “looks forward to participating in the next round of trilateral talks, which will take place soon.” The outlet’s question on whether Istanbul was considered had gone unanswered by publication.

Trump told reporters on 28 October that a meeting with Putin and Zelenskyy would be set up soon. The Kremlin keeps its condition. Ushakov claimed on 27 October that such a contact makes the most sense after the negotiation process ends, and repeated that Zelenskyy should come to Moscow.

Another mediator does not decide which meeting comes first. Kyiv and Moscow have both confirmed Abu Dhabi, Zelenskyy said, so it now depends on the US side. Earlier this month, Trump said he waived new sanctions on Russia so as not to drive Moscow from the talks.

Ukraine wants its Abu Dhabi talks with Russia and the US to come before a proposed summit of the US, Russian, and Chinese leaders, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 27 October. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk indicated the first round in Abu Dhabi could come after 4 November.

Abu Dhabi is meant to host the first round of trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US on ending Russia’s war since delegations last met in winter. Meanwhile, Trump has waived new sanctions on Russia and struck a diesel deal with Moscow while pressing Kyiv to spare Russian refineries. In Abu Dhabi, Ukraine would at least sit at the table. A rival idea, a summit of the US, Russian, and Chinese leaders, would leave it out of the room.

Abu Dhabi first

The rival idea came from Moscow. Putin proposed meeting Trump and China’s Xi Jinping at the APEC forum in Shenzhen on 18–19 November to negotiate an end to the war on terms that would favor Moscow, The Wall Street Journal reported on 18 October. A senior US official told the paper Trump had not agreed but could be receptive. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the paper that a meeting was under discussion.

If that summit comes first, a deal shaped around Moscow’s terms could reach Trump before Ukraine’s own talks begin. Zelenskyy wants Abu Dhabi first. “We would very much like our meeting in Abu Dhabi to happen before that,” he said. Both Kyiv and Moscow have confirmed the meeting and view its format positively, he said. That leaves the American side, whose main focus is the Middle East.

Trump’s own remarks early on 28 October pointed to a meeting of leaders instead. One would be set up soon, he told reporters, “with President Putin and President Zelenskyy.”

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For Abu Dhabi, Zelenskyy listed Kyiv’s agenda: de-escalation on energy and at sea, a prisoner exchange, and the format of a trilateral leaders’ meeting. A date is another matter. On the evening of 27 October, presidential communications adviser Dmytro Lytvyn told journalists it was too early for announcements.

Warsaw looks past 4 November

Tusk spoke before a cabinet meeting, after Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre held a 90-minute call with Putin. The two said they spoke for their own countries, not for Europe. Stubb briefed Tusk afterwards. Tusk said the European side came away very moderately optimistic about constructive talks in Abu Dhabi, and pointed to a first round there after 4 November. Yet he urged absolute caution and warned against expecting an easy deal.

China’s updated drone export rules will cover the engines in Russia’s Geran attack drones, Russia’s version of Iran’s Shahed, Ukraine’s sanctions commissioner Vladyslav Vlasiuk said on 27 October. He cited a clarification from China’s Commerce Ministry, Ukrainska Pravda’s defense desk Oboronka reported. The license requirement takes effect on 18 November.

Licensing itself isn’t new. China has required permits for some drone engines since September 2023. Even so, Chinese engines kept reaching Russian drone plants, some shipped as refrigeration units, Reuters reported. Russia’s jet-powered Gerans rely fully on Chinese turbojets, HUR deputy chief Vadym Skibitskyi has said. So the update’s value lies in enforcement, not in the list.

Three agencies, one list

Beijing issued the update in a joint announcement by the Commerce Ministry, the General Administration of Customs, and the Central Military Commission’s Equipment Development Department. Announcement No. 49 bars exports of listed drone items without a license, including specially designed autopilots and certain drone engines. China will approve applications that comply with the rules, a Commerce Ministry spokesperson added.

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Vlasiuk said the core of Russia’s long-range strike drones has formally come under control. He named engines for Gerans, turbojets for their jet versions, autopilots, and jam-resistant navigation. The announcement lists anti-jam navigation as a technology, not as hardware. He called the step an opening for Ukraine because Beijing now formally takes responsibility for these categories. Kyiv will press for the rules to be applied to known suppliers of Russia’s arms industry and, with partners, track licenses, transit routes, and re-exports, he said.

Permits, refusals, and FPV parts

Licensing does not mean a ban, Vlasiuk stressed. Exporters China deems reliable can get general permits for up to three years, while the rules leave broad grounds for refusal. The new thresholds do not cover motors and speed controllers for FPV drones, batteries, cameras, or optical fiber, he added.

The rules do cover brushless motors that meet all of these: at least 48 volts, at least 3 kW, a power density of at least 3 kW per kilogram, and no more than 3,000 rpm. Their speed controllers are covered too, Militarnyi reported. Russia could still obtain parts with Beijing’s approval, the outlet noted. Ukraine, without such close ties, could face delays, inspections, and higher costs.

A small Russian cruise missile of an unconfirmed type came down almost intact in Odesa Oblast, Militarnyi reported on 27 October. Its box-shaped airframe looks unlike the Geran-5 variant whose name a presidential adviser gave it.

Militarnyi describes Russia’s work on the Geran-5 line as iterative: features tested on one version reappear in the next. A variant reported in late September can correct its route by images of the ground instead of satellite signals, which Ukraine jams, according to the monitoring channel Polkovnyk GSh. Official Ukrainian sources have not confirmed that system. The airframe found in Odesa Oblast looks shaped for a different problem: radar. Russia now builds 4,000 jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones a month, Militarnyi says, most of them Geran-4. It is also building new launch sites for the Geran-5.

What the wreck shows

Local Telegram channel Odesa Info Live posted photos of the missile lying in open ground with little visible damage. Militarnyi described a compact cruise missile with a box-shaped fuselage, rounded edges, and a swept wing. The flat-sided body is probably meant to simplify production, the outlet said, and it may also cut radar visibility. A small turbojet engine exhausts through a V-shaped tail and draws air through intakes on both sides. Militarnyi read the dark composite skin as another measure against radar.

Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, the president’s adviser on defense technology, published the first photos of the new missile on 22 October. He wrote that it navigates optically and has greater range, speed, and flight altitude, and he labeled it the Geran-5 K5-K. However, Militarnyi noted that it looks substantially different from the K5-K variant already known by that name. In its 23 October overview, the outlet said Russia had started using two new small cruise missiles, probably developments of the Geran-5.

How Russia got here

Russia first used the original Geran-5 against Ukraine in early January 2026, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) said, describing it as a jet-powered strike drone. Militarnyi now classes the whole line as small cruise missiles.

Until specialists open the airframe, its navigation, range, and speed rest on Beskrestnov’s word. What they find inside will show how much of the design is aimed at Ukraine’s radar.

A Russian jet-powered drone set homes on fire in Kharkiv’s Osnovianskyi district during the night, Ukraine’s State Emergency Service (SES) reported. A small child was among the people hurt. Around 13:00 on 28 October, another Russian drone hit the same district, starting a fire, killing one person and injuring two, Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov said.

Of the 88 Shahed-type drones Russia launched from 18:00 on 27 October, 38 were jet-powered, the Air Force reported. By its preliminary count at 08:00, defenses had downed or jammed 31 of those 38. Several drones were still in the air. Russia also fired an Iskander-M or S-400 ballistic missile from Taganrog. Even so, Russian weapons hit eight locations, and debris fell on two more.

One strike, a casualty count that shifted

Kharkiv Oblast head Oleh Syniehubov reported a drone strike on the district at 22:42 on 27 October. At 23:12, he clarified that a child hurt in the strike had acute stress reaction. At 23:39, he listed four people hurt: women aged 32 and 65, a 56-year-old man, and a 4-year-old boy. Three went to hospital. Eight minutes later, he added that a 65-year-old woman had acute stress reaction. His morning summary of the day’s strikes lists two 65-year-old women in Kharkiv, one wounded and one with acute stress.

The SES put the number of people hurt at five, including the child. Rescuers said a jet-powered drone struck the area, starting a 2,500 m² fire.

Kharkiv’s last two days

The Osnovianskyi fire was part of a run of Russian strikes on Kharkiv and the area around it. On the evening of 26 October, Russian multiple rocket launchers hit the city’s Novobavarskyi district, killing two people and hurting four. That night, jet drones struck three places in Kharkiv district, which surrounds the city. One hit, in the settlement of Vilshany, left people hurt. The SES counted three injured that night.

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During the day on 27 October, another Russian jet drone hit a warehouse in the city’s Slobidskyi district. Preliminary reports showed no casualties. Drones also hit the Shevchenkivskyi district that afternoon, wounding one person, Terekhov said. Another hit damaged an administrative building in the Kholodnohirskyi district, he added. Hours later came the strike on Osnovianskyi. Across Kharkiv Oblast, 14 people were hurt over the past day, including a child, Syniehubov’s morning summary shows. In Osnovianskyi, rescuers were again working under the threat of repeat strikes.

A fire broke out in the area of a major Russian steel plant in Lipetsk late on 27 October, Kyiv time, as air defenses fired at incoming targets, the Ukrainian monitoring Telegram channel Exilenova+ reported. Ukrainian partisans said the strike may have hit the plant. The region’s governor denied any large industrial fire.

Whether or not it was hit, the plant matters to Ukraine. The Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant (NLMK) is Russia’s only producer of electrical steel, Ukrainska Pravda reported in April 2025. NLMK’s tax records, obtained by the outlet, showed sales of that steel to Moscow’s Avangard plant, which builds missiles for S-400 air defense systems. Russia also fires those missiles at ground targets in Ukraine.

Pantsir fires, no visible hit

The targets over Lipetsk were jet-powered, Exilenova+ wrote, citing preliminary reports of impacts and a fire toward the city’s airfield. Footage it posted showed a Pantsir air defense system firing, and the channel suggested the system may have failed to cope. It then reported the fire near NLMK, blaming air defense fire or a falling object.

The Crimean Tatar-Ukrainian partisan movement Atesh said its agents in Lipetsk reported an impact, and in a follow-up said they believe it may have hit NLMK.

Contracts and denials

A 2022 investigation by Disclose and its partners tied 18 NLMK contracts, all signed after 2014, to eight Russian defense firms, including an S-300 maker. NLMK confirmed the contracts but said only a “negligible” amount of civilian steel grades went to those firms.

On 28 October, Lipetsk Oblast Governor Igor Artamonov claimed air defenses downed 45 drones over the oblast overnight. He insisted reports of a large industrial fire were untrue, saying drone debris fell in a tree belt and sparked a fire, since contained. Debris also blew out windows in a Lipetsk apartment block, and one person sought medical help but needed no hospitalization, he added. Whether NLMK took any damage remains unconfirmed.

Earlier strikes on weapons suppliers

Earlier, UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles reportedly struck a battery plant in Yelets, in the same oblast, on 25 October. Two days before that, they reportedly hit an electronics plant in Oryol. OSINT channels described both as suppliers of parts for Russian missiles.

A test satellite for a future communications network under Ukrainian control is working in orbit, Ukraine’s Himera and Denmark’s GomSpace said on 27 October. The companies say it will work for Ukraine’s strategic security, and that the long-term aim is to rely less on foreign communications providers. Public launch records for the mission do not list a satellite by that name, though some of its objects are still unidentified.

Ukraine fights Russia on satellite links it doesn’t control, and the announcement comes two weeks after it saw what depending on an outside provider can cost. The satellite, the companies say, went up on 1 October, before that trouble began. Overnight on 14 October, Starlink and its military version, Starshield, began dropping links on fast-moving terminals, and Ukrainian officials said the cap disrupted drone missions. On 24 October, 10 days after the cap began, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reported speeds restored. Who ordered the cap remains contested. That same day, Elon Musk wrote that Ukraine’s military had violated Starlink’s terms of service and that “that loophole was closed last week,” a claim a Ukrainian presidential adviser disputed.

What the companies say, and what launch records show

Obria Nano flew on SpaceX’s Transporter-18 rideshare mission, the release said. Aalborg-based GomSpace built it on Himera’s order, Himera co-founder and CEO Misha Rudominski wrote on Facebook. He added that the team received the first signals the next day and that the satellite is now working. Its tests are meant to inform the design of the full Obria system, the release said.

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No satellite called Obria Nano appears on SpaceX’s published list for the mission, The Insider found. Public tracking catalogs show one Ukrainian satellite from that launch, named UASAT-Nano. Another 26 objects from the mission are still listed with placeholder names and no confirmed owner. The outlet said it is unclear whether the two names refer to one satellite.

UASAT-Nano is the satellite network Stetman, another Ukrainian company, is building, and its founder said the network’s first test satellite would launch in October. In April, Stetman and GomSpace agreed to set up a joint venture called UASAT and planned a first launch for fall 2026. The Obria release does not mention Stetman or UASAT.

Production in Ukraine is the stated next step

Rudominski wrote that Himera’s next stage is to produce satellites and ground terminals in Ukraine. He called it important not only to use the technology but also to gradually build domestic expertise and manufacturing.

“For us, this project is about more than launching a satellite. It is an opportunity to lay the foundation for an independent communications network for Ukraine,” Rudominski said in the release.

In the long run, the network would cover all of Ukraine and complement European satellite networks, the release said. The network does not exist yet, and Himera has given no timeline.

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Replacing Starlink will not be quick. Lance Hunter, a political scientist at Augusta University, told Time that Ukraine cannot quickly swap out such technology, since diversifying it “takes a lot of time. It takes a lot of resources.” Meanwhile, one Ukrainian interceptor-drone maker has begun rethinking its air-launched designs after the slowdown.

Russia has fired more than 100 ballistic missiles at Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast since 14 October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his evening address on 27 October. He said partners’ air defense packages are being delayed.

Ukraine’s front-line positions are stronger than they have been in a long time, Zelenskyy said. If partners’ support for Patriots and other air defense remained just as strong, he argued, Ukraine would be in a much better position diplomatically as well. He expects trilateral talks with US and Russian representatives in November. The US, on which, he said, “almost everything concerning Patriots depends,” will be one of the three sides.

Delays and the war on logistics

Overnight on 27 October, Russia launched 16 ballistic missiles and more than 280 drones, in what Zelenskyy called a serious escalation of Russia’s campaign against Ukraine’s logistics. The strikes hit the State University of Trade and Economics campus and the Southern Bridge in Kyiv.

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A 46-year-old woman was killed and 15 people were injured, among them dormitory residents and two medics, the Kyiv prosecutor’s office said on the morning of 27 October.

Zelenskyy wrote that artificial and lengthy delays in interceptor packages for Patriots and NASAMS directly help Russia achieve the goals of its terror campaign. In his evening address, he added:

“And everyone hears, everyone sees that right now, it is difficult for us to defend against Russian ballistic missiles. And above all, we do not have enough missiles for Patriots.”

A month waiting on Hegseth

Earlier, on 26 October, Zelenskyy wrote that Ukraine had waited almost a month for US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s signature on missiles for Patriots and NASAMS. Kyiv is also working with Europe and other partners, he added.

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Separately, The Washington Post reported on 19 October that some transfers come from allies and need Hegseth’s approval, because the US must sign off on re-transfers. Zelenskyy’s post does not say whether his wait concerns those transfers.

Before Zelenskyy’s latest statements, US officials rejected claims of a deliberate hold. A US government official called Ukraine’s claims “not true,” the Kyiv Independent reported. On 20 October, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there was “nothing being deliberately denied to Ukraine.” Hegseth said the US had not changed its posture toward Ukraine but wants “our guys” to have as many interceptors as possible.

German defense AI firm Helsing has unveiled Contra, an AI-run air defense system and two interceptor missiles designed to chase Russia’s jet-powered Geran drones, the company announced on 26 October. Officials pitch it as cheap, but it won’t reach the market this winter.

That leaves Ukraine on its own defenses as Russia shifts to jet drones. By early October, jet models made up about 40% of Russian drone launches, and Ukraine’s own interceptors for them won’t arrive in needed numbers before late November, Air Force Deputy Commander Yurii Cherevashenko said.

Two missiles, one AI brain

Contra is the command layer of air defense: it links radars and other sensors, tracks incoming drones and missiles, and assigns a weapon to each target, while people keep control over decisions, Helsing said. Besides the company’s own missiles, it can also use other firms’ interceptors, lasers, guns, or nets. AD-1 Inferno is jet-powered and designed to loiter, swarm, and re-engage targets, while AD-2 Ambush, a solid-fuel rocket, is designed to reach Mach 2.5, over twice the speed of sound, and a range of more than 20 km, the company said.

Inferno, with a 700 km/h speed and a 20-km range, would be the everyday shooter. Ambush would handle “leakers,” drones about to hit the ground, said Maxwell Adams, Helsing’s senior product director. Each shot should cost under $100,000, company officials said.

Built for the faster Gerans

Ukraine once downed 90% of Russia’s slower, propeller-driven Gerans, copies of Iran’s Shahed, Defense News reported. Russia has since fielded thousands of jet Geran-4s and Geran-5s flying at 400–700 km/h, and almost half now get through, Helsing co-founder and co-CEO Gundbert Scherf said.

Ukraine’s own nightly rates swing widely. On 28 September, President Zelenskyy put the shoot-down rate for jet drones at 57%. Overnight on 7 October, it exceeded 82%, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Ihor Klymenko said. Russian output of the two models has reached 4,000 a month, Helsing said, citing unspecified intelligence reports.

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Helsing has signed one Contra contract, Scherf said, but the system is still in testing, and he expects it on the market in the second half of 2027. Ukraine already uses Helsing’s HX-2 strike drones. Scherf said they should be integrated into a system like Contra.

Ukraine has finished its share of FREYJA, a joint European project to build a system against ballistic missiles, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told journalists on 17 October, Ukrinform reported. He added that Kyiv wants to test the first system as soon as possible.

Ukraine still relies on US-made Patriot interceptors to stop Russian ballistic missiles. Zelenskyy told ABC News on 23 October that Ukraine had received only 24 of them from the US in three months, while it needs 350 a month on average. FREYJA can not close that gap soon, because the system is still in development.

Ukraine’s missile and launcher, partners’ radars and sensors

Zelenskyy said the partners’ share of the work, with 10 countries taking part, is still underway. He also said he had discussed the project with French President Emmanuel Macron, and he named Norway as a key partner.

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Zelenskyy did not say what the partners still have to deliver. In August, he said Ukraine is capable of making the missile and launcher, while partners would supply critical components such as radars and sensors.

One part not made in Ukraine

In May, Fire Point co-founder and chief designer Denys Shtilerman said all components of the FP-7.x interceptor are made in Ukraine except one. “As for that one part we don’t manufacture in Ukraine, we’ve contracted a certain quantity of it. We already have it,” he said, but did not name the part.

In June, however, Shtilerman told the Financial Times that mass production depended on an infrared seeker Fire Point hoped to get from Germany’s Diehl Defence. Neither statement says whether the seeker is that one part.

Fire Point co-founder Iryna Terekh said in September that FREYJA was going through testing and technical integration in combat conditions in Ukraine. The company plans its first intercept of a ballistic target by mid-2027.

The official timeline has since moved closer. On 21 October, Zelenskyy wrote that officials had identified where to speed up so FREYJA reaches testing by the end of this year. A test is still a step short of an intercept.

Machine tools and other equipment from seven countries, led by China, work at Russian plants that make ballistic missiles and their components, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) said on 26 October. The 30 items are a small slice of HUR’s War&Sanctions portal, which lists 1,698 machine tools at 223 Russian plants.

Seventeen of the 30 were made outside China, in Germany, Taiwan, the US, Türkiye, Switzerland, and Italy. One of HUR’s proposals reaches past Russia and China, to the firms that supply parts for Chinese machine tools. The list comes two weeks after the EU blacklisted 1,569 Russian arms suppliers and executives. More than half of those listings hit the ballistic missile supply chain, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said. Sanctioning a company, though, does not stop the machines in its workshops.

A Chinese machine at the Iskander plant

HUR’s statement leads with a GX-650 five-axis machining center made by China’s Hyper Machine Tool. Such computer-controlled machines cut complex metal parts from several angles. HUR said it works at the Votkinsk Plant, which the agency described as the maker of 9M723 missiles for the Iskander-M system and the missile section of the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, an air-launched ballistic missile.

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HUR has flagged Votkinsk before. In November 2025, it published hackathon findings showing that Russian companies supplied Chinese and Taiwanese machine tools to the plant after the full-scale invasion began.

Chinese Shtral turning and milling centers work at PEMZ Molot, which builds electronics units for Iskander-M missiles, according to HUR’s statement. At UPKB Detal, which makes altimeters for hypersonic Zircon cruise missiles, HUR found measuring equipment from Germany’s Rohde & Schwarz.

The portal entries paint a broader picture. Only four of the 30 entries list a ballistic missile among the plant’s weapons. Most of the rest list cruise missiles, glide-bomb kits, guided artillery shells, or Geran-2 attack drones. HUR did not publish its evidence, though the portal says partner agencies can request it.

Foreign parts inside Chinese machines

Russian plants use the equipment to make missiles and parts such as altimeters, control surfaces, and gyroscopes, HUR said. The agency noted a growing number of Chinese machine tools, including five-axis models. According to HUR, those Chinese machines contain European, Japanese, and Taiwanese components, from numerical control systems to precision spindles and bearings. In HUR’s assessment, Russia still cannot replace equipment from leading foreign makers with its own.

A new video transmitter for Wild Hornets’ drones, including its STING interceptors, has passed state tests, the Ukrainian drone maker told Militarnyi. The module sends a drone’s camera feed to its pilot. The company expects it to widen its interceptors’ operating radius.

Russia launched 140 Shahed-type drones at Ukraine overnight on 26 October and 280 the next night, when its main target was Kyiv, Air Force figures as of the morning show. Interceptor drones, which cost dozens of times less than the Shaheds they hunt, are one of Ukraine’s answers. The STING alone downed more than 3,000 drones in its first seven months of use, Wild Hornets says. If the company’s estimate holds, a 30 km radius would let each ground station cover more than twice the area it covers at 20 km.

What the testers checked

Specialists from the State Research Institute for Testing and Certification of Arms and Military Equipment and the Defense Ministry’s State Quality Assurance Directorate confirmed the module’s declared characteristics on three drone types, the company said. The three were the STING interceptor, the Queen of Hornets cargo platform, and the 10-inch Wild Hornets Digital anti-aircraft drone.

Some of the drones’ figures exceeded the values the company had set for them, Wild Hornets told Ukrainian defense outlet Oboronka, without saying which ones. Those figures will enter the official specifications after further field tests, it said.

More than double the power

The module, called HV VTX Pro, is part of an upgrade to Wild Hornets’ Hornet Vision digital video system. It more than doubles the transmitter’s maximum power, to 4 W. That sends a clear picture farther and makes the feed steadier in crowded airwaves and under electronic jamming, the company said.

Wild Hornets first described the module in August, when it was already in serial production. Its interceptors’ operating radius would grow from around 20 km to 30 km, the company said at the time. That estimate assumed good line of sight and the 360-degree antenna on its ground stations, according to a company statement Interfax-Ukraine quoted. Interception could also become at least 20% more effective against targets flying extremely low, the statement said.

Wild Hornets is a Ukrainian company that designs and builds drones, from strike FPV drones and cargo platforms to the STING, which the company says flies at up to 280 km/h to hunt Shaheds. Its drones serve with more than 100 units of Ukraine’s Defense Forces, from the army and the National Guard to military intelligence, the Air Force, and the border guard, according to Interfax-Ukraine.

Russia is expanding drone storage at the Hvardiiske military airfield in occupied Crimea, Ukrainian OSINT channel Dnipro Osint reported on 26 October, citing new satellite images. The channel did not say who took the images or when. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said it struck drone hangars at the same airfield in July, and the military said strikes on 13 October damaged four drone storage sites nearby.

Hvardiiske has stayed in use since then. Ukraine’s General Staff has listed it among the sites Russia launched attack drones from in every daily report since 7 October. The airfield was on the list again on 24, 25, and 27 October, the night Russia aimed its main strike at Kyiv. The new construction, as the channel describes it, adds protected storage at a base Ukraine has already shown it can reach.

Shelters and “garages”

The images show more than 20 small shelters under construction, each protected by earth berms, the channel said. It also counted about 40 smaller structures it calls “garages.” It said they are meant for storing, servicing, and preparing Geran drones for launch.

Geran is the name Russia gives the Iranian-designed Shahed drones: the Shahed-136 became the Geran-2, which Russia now builds itself. The images show at least one hangar damaged by a Ukrainian drone hit, Dnipro Osint noted.

Launched from vehicles

Hvardiiske, north of Simferopol, uses mobile launch platforms instead of fixed installations, according to Dnipro Osint. Crews load drones onto specially equipped vehicles, which then launch them from the runway.

Struck repeatedly since June

On 24 June, the SBU said it hit infrastructure at Hvardiiske and at the Saky airbase. On 3 July, the SBU reported that its drones struck two hangars at Hvardiiske that stored Shaheds and aviation equipment. Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces struck the airfield again overnight on 5 July, and the SBU said a day later that it hit three hangars with aviation equipment there. A strike on 3 August destroyed nine aviation-fuel tanks and damaged two aircraft hangars, the General Staff said. Strikes on 13 October damaged four drone storage sites near Hvardiiske, with signs of secondary detonation, it reported two days later.

Not the only base Russia is building up

Hvardiiske is not the only Russian drone base Ukrainian OSINT channels have flagged this month. On 13 October, the anonymous channel Absolutely Reliable Source said Russia had nearly finished the first section of a launch site for jet-powered Geran-5 drones near Millerovo in Rostov Oblast, with eight launcher positions and 32 drone-preparation spots. Hvardiiske and Millerovo were both among the launch areas the General Staff listed for the night of 27 October, when Russia launched 280 Shahed-type drones, 69 of them jet-powered, with Kyiv as the main target.

Ukrainian drones damaged a process pipeline, two butyl-rubber units, and a rectification (distillation) unit at Russia’s Tolyattikauchuk petrochemical plant on 24 October, Ukraine’s General Staff said on 26 October. The damage hits the production chain of solid rocket fuel for tactical and ballistic missiles, it added.

The strike was part of a string of Ukrainian hits on Russian plants over four days, most of which the General Staff links to missile production. Ukraine hit an electronics plant in Oryol on 23 October and struck a battery plant in Yelets on 25 October or the following night. The General Staff ties both to missiles: Oryol makes components for missiles Russia fires at Ukrainian cities, and Yelets makes batteries for Iskander-M systems. Then, overnight on 26 October, drones also went after Voronezhsintezkauchuk, another Russian synthetic-rubber plant. For Tolyattikauchuk, this is the third time this year that strikes have reached its butyl-rubber shops.

What Kyiv and Russian officials say

The General Staff first confirmed the strike on 24 October with a report of an explosion and fire near the plant. It said the plant makes synthetic rubbers, monomers, fractions, and high-octane gasoline additives, and that its synthetic rubbers are used in solid rocket fuel.

Meanwhile, Russian officials have not named the plant in their statements. However, Tolyatti Mayor Ilya Sukhikh claimed that industrial facilities were damaged and, citing preliminary data, that no one was killed or injured, Russian outlet Expert reported.

What OSINT channels report

Drones hit at least two production facilities, Ukrainian monitoring channel Exilenova+ said. One is the shop where isobutane is turned into isobutylene, a raw material for synthetic rubbers. The other is outdoor unit No. 2 in shop BK-4, which produces and purifies high-purity isobutylene for butyl rubber.

The damage could delay rubber output and the supply of feedstock for other processes, including solid rocket fuel. Tolyattikauchuk can make about 260,000 metric tons of synthetic rubber a year, OSINT-Varta data show.

Hit again and again

Tolyattikauchuk had come under fire before. Overnight on 4 April, about 10 drones reached the plant by various accounts. Footage showed fires at storage shops D-12 and D-1 and at the BK-2, BK-3, and BK-4 units, though more sites may have been hit, the analysts added. Ukrainian forces struck the plant again on 12 June, the General Staff confirmed.

Then, on 12 September, a strike set fires at the BK-2, BK-3, and BK-4 shops, an OSINT community Absolutely Reliable Source reported. Without those shops running steadily, the line that makes MTBE, a key high-octane gasoline additive, is cut, the channel noted.

Russia’s aircraft plants still turn out modern fighter-bombers and fighters, enough to partly cover its losses, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency HUR told Ukrainian news agency UNIAN, which published the reply on 23 October. Its older bombers are a different story. Russia has no serial production of new Tu-95s, Tu-22M3s, or Su-24s and keeps them flying through repairs and upgrades, so each one lost for good leaves a lasting gap, HUR said.

Ukraine’s Navy said its Neptune missiles hit six Su-34M bombers at Borisoglebsk airbase in Russia’s Voronezh Oblast overnight into 15 October. Zelenskyy later said four were destroyed and two damaged. The Su-34 is one of the jets that drop Russia’s glide bombs, heavy bombs fitted with wing-and-guidance kits, on Ukrainian positions and towns.

How fast Russia replaces its jets

Russia can probably deliver 10–15 Su-34s a year now, HUR estimated. Deliveries grew from eight in 2022 to 11 in 2023 and 12–14 in 2024. But the agency said that trend does not confirm the same pace today.

For the Su-35S fighter, HUR pointed to an average of about 11–12 a year in 2021–2025. It called that a rough benchmark, not an established 2026 output. Su-30SM2 and Su-57 production continues, but reliable rates cannot be determined. Su-30 figures also mix new builds with upgrades of older Su-30SMs, HUR noted.

What Russia had, and what it lost or saw badly damaged in 2026

By the end of 2025, Russia had about 125 Su-34 and Su-34M bombers, which HUR counts together. It also had 140–145 Su-30 jets of various versions, 135–140 Su-35S, and about 20 Su-57s, HUR estimated. These are only fleet estimates, not a guaranteed number of jets Russia can send on combat missions at the same time, the agency cautioned. Some are under repair or upgrade, and HUR is not disclosing the current fleet size.

HUR also named specific 2026 cases of Russian aircraft destroyed or critically damaged. A Tu-22M3 crashed in Irkutsk Oblast on 15 June. Strikes on Engels airbase on 17 July and 28 August hit two Tu-95MS. The first suffered critical damage to its tail section, and HUR treats the second as a probable irrecoverable loss.

The list also includes a Su-35 that Ukraine’s military says it shot down on 8 July, a claim backed by published materials showing debris. It adds a Su-57 crash in Moscow Oblast on 23 July and a collision of two Su-35S over Kursk Oblast on 7 September. Full official details on those two incidents are still missing, HUR noted. Strikes on several Su-57s and a Su-34 at Shagol airbase on 25 April, and on a Su-24 in Crimea on 7 September, were also reported, but the state of those jets is unknown, so counting them as destroyed would be premature, HUR said. The list, as published, leaves out the Su-34s at Borisoglebsk and the Tu-95MS that Russia’s defense ministry said crashed on takeoff in Amur Oblast in late September.

French and US maritime patrol planes are watching the western Black Sea, where drones keep hitting merchant ships, Romanian outlet Curs de Guvernare reported on 19 October, citing flight-tracking data. Romania blames Russia for the attacks, while Bulgaria says it cannot prove who launched them.

Ukraine’s three small Danube ports have kept its grain exports from collapsing further, and Russia has pounded those ports since the summer. The ships serving them are now being hit in the economic zones of two NATO members. Many were anchored near or heading to the Sulina Canal, which links the Danube to the sea. That puts the allied patrols over these waters in the middle of the fight over Ukraine’s grain trade.

Two patrol planes over the western Black Sea

A French Navy Atlantique 2 maritime patrol plane arrived in Constanța, Romania’s main Black Sea port, on the evening of 18 October, Curs de Guvernare said. On 24 October, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said in the Bulgarian port of Varna that a French patrol plane had been operating in the area under NATO for two weeks and had contributed to rescue operations.

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Two tankers burn off Romania’s Sulina as Bulgaria says it lacks proof Russia is behind the Black Sea ship attacks

Meanwhile, a US Navy P-8A Poseidon flew into Varna from Sicily on 18 October, AFP reported, citing flight-tracking data. Two days later, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev said it had begun reconnaissance patrols after Sofia asked allies for help, and that some allies had responded quickly. Bulgarian Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov called the deployment a joint decision of Bulgaria and NATO. He said the plane cannot strike targets and passes its data to NATO, Anadolu Agency reported.

NATO promises more

On 20 October, NATO’s North Atlantic Council met at Romania’s request. Afterward, the alliance said it would send more maritime patrol aircraft, radar systems, and drones to the Black Sea. NATO military spokesman Col. Martin O’Donnell added that allies have sent or will send intelligence personnel and explosives-forensics teams. NATO itself has not attributed the attacks to any country.

Romania names Russia, Bulgaria hedges

Romania has been blunter. On 15 October, after four merchant ships were hit within a day, acting Foreign Minister Oana Țoiu wrote on X that “Russia bears full responsibility for these developments.” On 17 October, Romanian F-16s shot down two jet-powered Russian Geran drones near Sulina, Romania’s Defense Ministry said.

On 23 October, a drone sank the cargo ship Khoryv off Constanța, killing a Ukrainian sailor, and President Nicușor Dan blamed Russia too. “It is part of Russia’s escalation process in its war in Ukraine,” Dan said.

Bulgaria is more cautious. Radev told parliament on 14 October that the attacks worked in Russia’s favor but that Sofia could not prove it. Since taking office in May, he has sought a thaw in ties with Moscow.

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kenya are seeking the return of citizens drawn into Russia’s war, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) said on 25 October. According to relatives and officials the agency cites, many of the men had gone to Russia for work, only to be tricked or forced into its army.

Russia fills its ranks partly with foreigners. In April, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) said the Russian Defense Ministry plans to enlist at least 18,500 of them in 2026. Foreign recruits let the Kremlin put off hard choices about another mobilization at home, the Atlantic Council argued in May. Home governments have pushed back before, among them Ghana in August. The new statements show the limit of that pushback. Once a man is serving in Russia’s army, his government has to ask Russia to let him go.

Kyrgyz minister: contracts are forced in enlistment offices and jails

Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev addressed the problem at a parliamentary committee on 13 October, answering lawmakers’ questions. He said Kyrgyz citizens in Russia are forced to sign contracts at military enlistment offices or in pretrial detention centers. If warned in time, diplomats try to stop the men from reaching the front.

Kazakhstan is compiling a list for Moscow

Kazakhstan is negotiating with Russia over citizens in the combat zone. Its Foreign Ministry said on 7 October that it was checking each hotline request. Once the checks are complete, the ministry said, it will send the compiled list to the Russian side.

SZRU separately cited unnamed relatives of one Kazakh worker. After he complained about working conditions, they said, he and other men were taken to an enlistment office and forced to sign contracts.

Kenya wants five men held by Ukraine treated as possible trafficking victims

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who also handles foreign affairs, gave lawmakers a count on 8 October. “The Ministry has records of 354 Kenyan nationals involved in the Russian-Ukraine crisis,” he told them. Families who petitioned Parliament dispute that number and put their own count at 841, Kenya’s The Star reported.

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Kenya says Russia agreed to stop recruiting its citizens – families of the missing are still waiting

Ukraine holds five Kenyans captured while fighting for Russia, and Nairobi has already appealed to Kyiv over them. The government told Parliament it wants them treated as people who may have been trafficked abroad.

For Kenyans still serving in Russia’s army, the way out runs through Russian officers. Moscow informed Nairobi that unit commanders will consider requests to end military contracts case by case, the same government response said.

Ukraine, the US, the EU, and NATO plan to meet in Brussels this week to discuss security for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Ukrainian TV. The meeting would follow last week’s talks in Oslo and a US envoy’s visit to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Guarantees are what would oblige Ukraine’s allies to act if Russia attacks again. The Paris Declaration laid plans for that commitment in January. Kyiv had a briefing from the Americans, and now the partners want a broad discussion of security and guarantees, Zelenskyy said. Brussels comes ahead of three-way talks with Russia, which the Kremlin says Putin is ready in principle to resume in mid-November.

Zelenskyy: meeting planned for Tuesday or Wednesday

The meeting is planned for Tuesday or Wednesday, 27 or 28 October, Zelenskyy said in the interview, aired on 25 October. The EU would take part at the presidential level and NATO at the level of its secretary general. He did not know whether anyone else would join. He also said Ukraine’s neutrality and limits on its army are not up for discussion.

After Oslo, Witkoff briefed Putin in St. Petersburg

Earlier, on 20 October, Zelenskyy met US special envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo, with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre present. According to Zelenskyy, a wider round there included national security advisers from Germany, the UK, France, and Italy, the chief of staff of the European Commission president, and NATO representatives.

A day later, Witkoff met Putin in St. Petersburg and said he had brought papers setting out possible paths to a settlement. He told Putin the Oslo talks had been productive. However, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov claimed the new ideas from the Europeans and Kyiv that Witkoff relayed held little of use for a settlement.

Russia is ready to resume three-way talks with Ukraine and the US, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in an interview with Pavel Zarubin of state broadcaster VGTRK, published on 22 October. He said they should settle security for both countries after a final peace deal, not a brief pause.

Putin spoke a day after he hosted US envoy Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would accept freezing the war along the front line. In May, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov named Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donbas and Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts as the only condition for peace. Any new round would start from that gap: Kyiv offers to stop where the armies stand, while Moscow’s last stated terms demanded more land.

Talks in November

Putin stated that Moscow and Washington had agreed Russia was ready to resume trilateral contacts. He added that he generally agreed with a US point that European security architecture should also be discussed.

On 21 October, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov stated that the sides had settled on mid-November, with Abu Dhabi as the likely venue.

"Historical Russia"

In a 21 October Fox News interview, asked about a freeze leaving Ukraine 75% or more of its land, Zelenskyy answered: “Yes, right now, we have to freeze.”

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Asked about the land Ukraine would give up, Putin replied that the occupied regions were not Ukraine’s but "historical Russia." He claimed their residents had voted for independence and then to join Russia, and called any talk of territorial losses inappropriate.

Putin linked Russia’s readiness to negotiate to Ukrainians being a people very close to Russians. He claimed the latest genetic studies show they are one people. Independent outlet Meduza noted it is unclear which studies he meant. Putin’s 12 July 2021 essay on the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians made the same case, which Ukraine’s national memory institute rebutted.

He closed that answer by asserting Russia would achieve all the goals of what the Kremlin calls its special military operation. He made a similar vow on 17 December 2025.

A Malta-flagged tanker carrying Russian diesel is heading for New York after the fuel deal between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Reuters reported in an exclusive on 23 October, citing LSEG shipping data. Two weeks earlier, the US Treasury temporarily waived sanctions on Russian diesel.

The tanker is due in the US on 7 November, four days after Americans vote in the midterms. So the first US-bound cargo cannot reach American pumps before the election. Energy analysts also doubt the deal will lower diesel prices meaningfully. US fuel prices rose mainly because the war with Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump, however, has blamed Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries.

Loaded on the day Moscow promised

The medium-sized tanker Agioi Fanendes took on 40,000 metric tons of ultra-low sulfur diesel at the Baltic port of Primorsk on 22 October, shipping data showed. In March, Ukraine’s General Staff said its drones hit the Transneft oil terminal at that same port.

A day before the loading, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that the first tanker would sail for the US on 22 October. He pledged more shipments and said Russia would meet US needs within its capabilities.

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Russia resumes diesel exports to Türkiye, Brazil, after Trump lifts sanctions on fuel supplies, boosting Moscow’s war revenue – Reuters

From a pledge to a partial lift

On 9 October, Trump wrote that Russia would immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel “to the American and Global Marketplace.” Another 500,000 tons would follow in November, then 1 million tons “immediately thereafter.”

Moscow had banned diesel exports on 8 July, after Ukrainian drone strikes shut down refineries and caused fuel shortages inside Russia. The Russian government stated on 10 October that it had partially lifted the ban, clearing 500,000 tons for the world market at this stage. Russian diesel shipments to Türkiye and Brazil have since resumed, boosting Moscow’s war revenue.

Trump has made other moves to cut diesel prices before the vote, Reuters reported. He waived parts of a new sanctions law against Russia. He also threatened Europe with a US diesel export ban unless countries released more fuel from their emergency reserves.