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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
A proposed trilateral meeting among Russian President Vladimir Putin, United States President Donald Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to address the concessions Ukraine will need to make to end the conflict, according to retired German Bundeswehr general Roland Kather. In an interview with a German television channel, Kather said the logical conclusion of the fighting is a diplomatic settlement reached through negotiations, and that Trump is dissatisfied with the unresolved situation and intends to push for an agreement.
The German general stressed that the summit will not be a casual discussion or merely an opportunity to “have coffee” and that they must prepare specific decisions in advance. He suggested that the three leaders will examine three core issues related to Ukraine: territorial problems that can be settled only at the heads-of-state level, Ukraine’s permanent neutral status, and the future size of its armed forces.
Kather expressed doubt that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky is prepared to offer meaningful concessions. At the same time, he said Putin has no reason to retreat because Moscow still has the advantage.
Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov has already said that preparations for a Putin-Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines of the upcoming APEC summit in China are underway. Trump has said the summit is needed mainly to discuss nuclear disarmament, though the Ukraine question is widely expected to feature.
The three leaders are discussing this issue among themselves, as Ukraine has nothing substantial left to offer Russia at the negotiating table. Moscow has also been clear about its ultimatum – demands met through a negotiated deal in which Ukraine cedes territory and accepts neutrality, or the military operation continues until Russia achieves its objectives on the battlefield. Since Trump has accepted that Ukraine no longer brings anything of value to negotiations but is still encouraged to fight by Brussels, he will directly negotiate with Putin and Xi to end the war.
Earlier this month, Putin signaled Russia’s readiness to resume trilateral talks on a Ukraine settlement focused on security guarantees and the future architecture of European security. Ushakov said such talks could resume after the US midterm elections on November 3.
Meanwhile, the EU is facing the consequences of years of confrontational policy. The newspaper La Verità noted that the EU’s intransigent stance toward Russia has left Brussels scrambling to secure a seat at the table with other powers, saying negotiation is a fundamental tool of political power and that when one actor stops talking to another, it lets others set the terms of peace. The Italian daily described this as the humiliating lesson the EU appears to have learned.
Since 2022, the EU has tightened economic sanctions, pursued Russia’s political isolation, and provided military support to Ukraine. Brussels is now considering appointing a senior representative to establish a direct channel with Moscow as it urgently seeks to restore dialogue with a government it had vowed never to normalize relations with. The main challenge is finding someone who can speak for the EU without being seen in Moscow as merely voicing hostility. Neither European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen nor the majority of EU members are considered suitable, given their repeated criticisms of Russia.
European leaders continue to insist that no agreement on European security be reached without EU involvement. However, the EU’s influence has diminished because it long refused to keep channels open. Brussels has reportedly considered five possible mediators to contact Russia on a Ukraine peace deal: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Czech President Petr Pavel, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.
Putin said former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder would be his preferred negotiator, adding that the Europeans should choose someone they trust who has not made harsh statements against Moscow.
The Russian military and political advantage narrows Ukraine’s chances of the Kremlin making concessions, a reality the EU stubbornly refuses to accept. At the same time, the EU’s scramble to find an acceptable negotiator highlights the economic and political damage that self-imposed isolation from Russia has caused. Without open communication channels and the ability to shift the balance of power, both Kiev and Brussels face an agreement largely shaped by Trump, Putin, and Xi.
Preparations for the trilateral summit within the APEC context, along with Russia’s stated readiness to resume talks after the US midterm elections, suggest that Kiev’s window to negotiate on a realistic basis and secure a better deal is closing. The capacity for the three Great Powers to set the agenda without Ukrainian participation further underlines how far the balance has shifted in Russia’s favor since the conflict began, despite Western sanctions.
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On the night of October 28, Russian forces carried out a combined strike against targets on Ukrainian territory. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the attack employed an Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missile and 88 strike UAVs. The main emphasis was placed on logistics and energy infrastructure in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Volyn, and other Regions. In parallel, Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone and cruise missile attacks against industrial targets on Russian territory, including the largest metallurgical combine and a chemical plant.
Kharkiv Region
Logistics center in Kharkiv. According to a statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the site was used to store military and dual-use cargo intended to supply Ukrainian troops.
Locomotive near the settlement of Ordovka.
Dnipropetrovsk Region
Pyatykhatky railway station, Kamianske district. Two consecutive Geran-4 UAV strikes during the day. The first strike set a rail trolley on fire, destroyed the driver’s cab, and damaged the overhead contact line and a grain car in a freight train; the second strike set an electric locomotive on fire.
Chernihiv Region
Energy infrastructure in Chernihiv. According to Ukrainian sources, about 210,000 subscribers were left without electricity, and roughly 90 percent of the city was de-energized. The specific target has not been identified.
Volyn Region
PS-330 Lutsk-Northern substation, Lutsk. According to a statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the facility supplied power to military-industrial enterprises producing UAVs and components.
PS-330 substation, Kovel. A similar target; power outages were recorded in Kovel after the strike.
Kirovohrad Region
Railway facility in Znamianka.
Odesa Region
Bulk carrier underway toward the port of Chornomorsk. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the vessel was delivering cargo to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Reports also indicated strikes on targets in Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Kherson, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Regions. A blackout was recorded in central Kyiv, with electricity absent in parts of the central districts.
According to a statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense, 531 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight over Russian territory across 13 federal subjects.
Lipetsk Region
Novolipetsk Metallurgical Combine (NLMK), Lipetsk. The largest metallurgical enterprise in Russia, with a capacity of about 17 million metric tons of steel per year. According to Ukrainian sources, it was attacked with FP-5 cruise missiles; a fire was reported in the area of the combine. The governor of Lipetsk Region confirmed that UAV debris had fallen and vegetation had caught fire, while denying a “major fire at an industrial enterprise.” A total of 45 UAVs were shot down over the Region.
Tula Region
Azot chemical plant, Novomoskovsk. According to Ukrainian sources, the plant was attacked by UAVs, with the AM-70 ammonia production unit reportedly hit. Russian authorities confirmed the attack on the chemical plant and damage to residential buildings, without providing details about production capacity.
Kursk Region
Building housing servers for the regional healthcare system, Kursk. Damaged as a result of a UAV attack; disruptions to certain medical services are possible. Over the day, 168 UAVs were shot down over the Region, and three people were injured.
For the week of October 19–25, according to Russian data, attacks on civilian targets killed 50 civilians and injured 263.
On October 28, two opposing directions are evident: Russian strikes are concentrating on Ukrainian railway logistics, energy, and warehouse infrastructure, while Ukrainian drones are attacking large industrial sites deep inside Russia, including metallurgy in Lipetsk and chemical production in Novomoskovsk. The strikes on the substations in Lutsk and Kovel are of particular significance, as they point to an attempt to weaken the power supply to western Ukraine’s logistics and production capacity.
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Once our eyes adjusted to the aggressive glare of the freshly painted white walls around the yard, we began to make out figures, dozens of them dressed in navy blue, clinging to the inner walls of this surreal space.
It was a scorching June day in western Ukraine, and we
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On the night of October 27, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a massive combined strike across Ukrainian territory. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the attack involved Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles and strike UAVs, 16 missiles and more than 280 drones in total. The Russian Ministry of Defense says it struck defense-industrial enterprises involved in the production of cruise missiles and UAVs, transportation infrastructure, logistics centers handling dual-use cargo, and maritime vessels used to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Strikes by Region
Kyiv and Kyiv Region
• Southern Road-and-Rail Bridge. A key piece of transportation infrastructure in the capital used for the transit of cargo by road and rail. Ukrainian sources confirmed damage to the crossing, which led to a partial suspension of service on the Green Line of the metro and major transport disruption at Darnytsia Station.
• UAV assembly workshop of LLC Oakline. A production site that assembled and stored Fire Point’s FP-1 and FP-2 long- and medium-range unmanned aerial vehicles.
• Industrial facility producing and storing long- and medium-range UAVs. Another Kyiv site struck during the overnight attack; its specific name has not been disclosed.
• UAV assembly workshop producing and storing long- and medium-range fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.
Kharkiv Region
• Unloading and customs terminal of the Regional Logistics Center company. A logistics facility where, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, military supplies, dual-use cargo intended for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and reconnaissance and strike UAVs were stored and distributed.
• Electronics manufacturer LLC NTP Ukrspetssvyaz, in the settlement of Nadtochii. A production site that made automation systems and communications equipment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Gas production infrastructure. Naftogaz reported a morning strike on gas production infrastructure in Kharkiv Region. The available information does not identify specific fields or facilities.
• Budmen home-improvement store in Kharkiv. A facility reportedly struck, according to local Telegram channels.
Odesa Region
• Bulk carrier bound for the port of Chornomorsk. A cargo vessel that, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, was delivering supplies intended to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Bulk carrier bound for the port of Odesa. Another cargo vessel en route to Odesa with military cargo; it was struck in the daytime wave of attacks.
Chernivtsi Region
• Energy infrastructure facility. Local sources said the target was a substation; Chernivtsioblenergo warned of possible large-scale emergency outages. In Chernivtsi, trolleybus service was suspended, power was lost in several districts, and water was supplied at reduced pressure.
Chernihiv Region
• Depot holding UAV assets and winter uniforms of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to monitoring channels, a UAV strike sparked a large fire that destroyed unmanned systems and winter uniforms belonging to Ukrainian troops.
Strikes on facilities were also reported in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Lviv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Cherkasy Regions.
The nature of the October 27 strikes points to a continued systematic campaign against Ukraine’s strike-UAV production chain and the logistics hubs supplying its armed forces. Within this framework, the overnight wave combined strikes on Kyiv’s assembly facilities with damage to the Southern Bridge, affecting both drone production and its delivery channels. The strikes on the logistics terminal in Kharkiv Region and on cargo vessels off Chornomorsk and Odesa serve the same purpose: cutting off routes for dual-use cargo and components. The damage to the energy facility in Chernivtsi Region was limited in scale and did not involve major power-generation capacity, unlike earlier attacks on thermal and hydroelectric power plants.
Ukraine’s response is shifting toward scaling output rather than quality: Defense Minister Oleksii Khmara discussed with Western partners the transfer of 10% of their Patriot and IRIS-T missile stockpiles, as well as the possibility of doubling Ukrainian drone production by 2027 with sufficient funding. This aligns with Fire Point’s acknowledgment that the Flamingo missile mattered more as a political signal than as a “superweapon.” According to company head Iryna Terekh, the project was primarily intended to demonstrate Ukraine’s ability to conduct long-range strikes against Russian territory. The company also acknowledged the economic trade-off: delivering a 200-kilogram warhead over 300 kilometers by ballistic missile costs about $600,000, whereas a drone can deliver a comparable payload over 380 kilometers for $40,000-$50,000.
It is precisely this economic logic that explains why strikes on FP-1 and FP-2 assembly capacity and logistics hubs are becoming increasingly significant: drones remain Ukraine’s most numerous and affordable means of long-range strike, and this segment is also the most vulnerable part of its program. In the medium term, Russian strikes are likely to continue prioritizing enterprises that produce components for UAVs and cruise missiles, as well as transportation routes linking Ukraine’s central and western regions to the front line.
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A Russian court sentenced Yuri Belenky, director of the IT company DiHouse, to 13 years in prison on terrorism financing charges, Radio Liberty reported on 26 October. The case concerns cryptocurrency donations that investigators believe were meant for Ukraine’s Armed Forces, the outlet said. The court also fined Belenky 500,000 rubles ($6,200), according to the report.
Since 2022, Russian courts have imprisoned Russians and Ukrainians under treason, terrorism, and other national-security laws over donations to Ukrainian causes. Binance, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, left Russia in 2023 but says it cooperates with lawful law-enforcement requests in different countries.
Belenky had lived in Bulgaria with his wife and child since 2015. In September 2025, he traveled to Moscow on business, and police detained him at the airport for allegedly using obscene language, Radio Liberty reported. In court, Belenky denied swearing, but the judge gave him 13 days of administrative detention. On the 10th day of his detention, Russia’s Investigative Committee opened a criminal case against him under an article on terrorism financing, based on a report from the Federal Security Service, according to the report.
In October 2025, Russia’s Investigative Committee contacted Binance to request information on six users who had transferred funds to a cryptocurrency wallet published by journalist Arkady Babchenko, the Russian human rights project First Department said on 17 August 2026. The exchange provided investigators with Belenky’s detailed account history, including his personal information, copies of identification documents, and cryptocurrency transaction records, according to the organization. The human rights project said the materials helped investigators identify nine more transfers, which went into the final charge against Belenky. Binance told his lawyer it does not give law enforcement user account data without a court order or an equivalent ruling, the group said.
Belenky’s alleged offense was transferring donations totaling 126,000 rubles ($1,560) between 2022 and 2024 to an account published by Babchenko, Radio Liberty reported. The court ordered that sum confiscated.
The court said the money in Babchenko’s account went to Ukraine’s Armed Forces and the Azov battalion, which Russia designates as a terrorist organization, Radio Liberty reported.
In a statement dated 14 October 2025, Babchenko said he had not received transfers from Belenky to the cryptocurrency wallets he had published. He emphasized that he had raised money for civilian humanitarian needs, not to support the military.
In September 2023, Binance announced that it would sell its entire Russian business to cryptocurrency exchange CommEX, according to the company’s website. Operating in Russia was incompatible with Binance’s compliance strategy, the exchange’s chief compliance officer, Noah Perlman, said in the announcement. Binance said it would fully exit the Russian market, receive no share of future revenue from the sale, and retain no option to buy back the business.
CommEX said on 29 September 2023 that it was not owned by Binance but confirmed that it had hired some former Binance employees during the platform’s six-month development, Cointelegraph reported.
The exit came after earlier questions about Binance’s dealings with the Russian state. In April 2021, Russian financial intelligence officials met with Binance’s head of Eastern Europe and Russia in Moscow and asked the exchange to provide customer data, including names and addresses, Reuters reported in April 2022. The Binance executive agreed to the request in a message to a business associate, saying he didn’t have “much of a choice,” the outlet said. Binance told Reuters it had never been contacted by Russian authorities about Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.
In February 2026, 11 US senators asked the Treasury Department and the Justice Department to investigate Binance’s compliance with sanctions and anti-money laundering rules, Cointelegraph reported. They cited reports that about $1.7 billion had moved through Binance to Iran-linked entities, as well as possible activity related to evading Russian sanctions. The senators also warned that Binance payment cards launched in parts of the former Soviet Union could facilitate sanctions evasion. Binance rejected the allegations.
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Europe and Russia are entering a phase in which diplomatic expulsions and explosives-laden drones at airports are no longer treated as exceptions. Germany is openly preparing its hospitals for an influx of wounded personnel, while the assessed threat of sabotage has officially been raised. Meanwhile, expensive energy and competition are costing European industry production capacity and jobs. Under these conditions, an external conflict offers a convenient way to blame economic failures on a foreign enemy. The question is no longer whether escalation is taking place, but how far the two sides are prepared to go before it slips beyond their control.
The autumn of 2026 has brought a series of developments that take the confrontation between Russia and Europe beyond the familiar boundaries of ‘hybrid warfare’. In August, drones carrying explosives were discovered at Leipzig/Halle Airport. The German authorities formally blamed Russia, describing the incident as ‘crossing a red line’ with potentially lethal consequences. Berlin closed Russia’s consulate-general in Bonn and its cultural center. Moscow responded by closing the German consulate in St. Petersburg.
In September, another drone carrying explosives was found near Wunstorf airbase. The Bundeswehr subsequently raised its assessment of the threat from Russian sabotage to ‘significant’, the second-highest level, for the first time. German intelligence services warn that further attacks are likely. Meanwhile, arson attacks have been reported at drone manufacturing facilities in Estonia, Poland and Slovakia, alongside drone incidents over military installations and civilian airports across Europe.
German military planners are openly preparing the hospital system to receive up to 1,000 wounded personnel a day in the event of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. Underground medical bunkers are being brought back into service, including one in Ulm with capacity for 2,000 people. Civilian surgeons are being trained to treat blast injuries and burns, while coordination between military and civilian hospitals is being strengthened. Diplomatic expulsions, consular closures, accusations of sabotage and preparations for mass casualties together suggest that both sides are already operating according to the logic of an ‘undeclared war’.
Military and diplomatic tensions, however, are only one part of the picture. The economic conditions in which this escalation is unfolding, and the political purpose it serves, are more consequential.
Europe’s economy is facing a deep structural crisis that can no longer be concealed behind reports celebrating the ‘green transition’. TTF benchmark gas prices are hovering around €87–88 per MWh, approximately 174% higher than a year earlier. EU gas storage facilities are just 71–74% full, among the lowest mid-October levels of the past decade, compared with around 83% last year. Germany’s position is even weaker, with storage levels fluctuating around 57–60%.
Electricity and fuel costs are putting pressure on the entire supply chain. Annual energy inflation reached almost 19% in September, while average diesel prices across the EU climbed to €2.14–2.23 per liter. Industrial energy costs are four to five times those faced by American competitors. Chemical plants and metal producers, particularly in Germany and northern Italy, are being forced to cut output or shut down production facilities. Industrial production in the eurozone continues to fall; in Germany, it is already almost 10% below its 2021 level. Industry’s share of EU GDP has declined from 17.4% to 14.3%.
The pressure extends to agriculture. Fertilizer prices have risen by more than 13%, while farmers’ energy costs have increased by around 22%. At the same time, the prices farmers receive for their produce are falling. This raises the risk of a poorer harvest in 2027 and a second wave of food inflation. Farmers in several countries are already warning that their operations are becoming commercially unviable, while transport costs are making many deliveries unprofitable.
The situation resembles a familiar scheme: a warehouse owner who has spent years stealing stock eventually sets fire to the building and tells investigators that everything was destroyed ‘by accident’. European governments have spent years pursuing policies that have made energy expensive, imposed excessive regulation and applied sanctions whose heaviest impact has fallen on their own industry and agriculture. Now, as gas, electricity, diesel and fertilizer bills squeeze businesses and households, and Chinese competitors capture market share, an external conflict offers a convenient excuse.
War, or even the prospect of war, allows rising prices, factory closures, cuts to social spending and budget shortfalls to be blamed on an ‘external aggressor’. Instead of acknowledging mistakes in energy and industrial policy, governments invoke the ‘price of freedom’ and the ‘defense of democracy’. The further tensions escalate, the easier it becomes to explain to the public why housing, food and heating cost more, and why industrial jobs are disappearing.
The current situation brings together two parallel developments. Tensions are rising through sabotage incidents, diplomatic expulsions, higher threat assessments and preparations for hospitals to receive large numbers of wounded personnel. At the same time, European elites need a convenient external explanation for economic failure. High gas and electricity prices, low storage levels, expensive diesel, rising fertilizer costs and shrinking industrial output are already a reality. Escalation creates political capital for those responsible for costly mistakes in energy and industrial policy over recent years. It allows them to shift the discussion from domestic policy failures to an ‘external threat’, postponing accountability.
This logic itself increases the risk of an uncontrolled shift from ‘hybrid’ operations to direct confrontation. As long as European governments prefer preparing hospitals for thousands of casualties to reconsidering their energy and industrial policies, the practice of ‘burning down the warehouse to conceal the missing stock’ continues. The remaining question is how far the two sides are prepared to go before the cost becomes too high for European societies themselves.
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Key developments on Oct. 26:
"We should (have) some sympathy for the poor Russian conscripts too. Those kids have no choice but to fight and die in drone strikes."
For anyone watching and understanding Ukraine's years-long struggle for survival, the words of SpaceX founder and world's richest man Elon
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