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Suboptimal outcomes: On social security boards for unorganised, gig, platform workers
Carta Aberta à Comunidade Portuguesa: Uma comunidade que dá, prospera

Zohran Mamdani disse: “Substituam a frieza do individualismo feroz pelo calor de uma visão coletiva.”
O individualismo feroz pode ser uma referência a uma visão narcísica de uma comunidade que pressupõe que, enquanto operar de acordo com um autodiagnóstico que sugere “quem me vai salvar senão eu mesmo?”, mais ninguém importa.
O mundo não pode funcionar com sentimentos autocráticos que apenas servem o individualismo. A sociedade precisa de mentes abertas que vejam aqueles ao seu redor como embaixadores capazes de trazer harmonia a um mundo fraturado, onde retribuir não seja uma obrigação, mas sim uma experiência de harmonização das nossas mentes e da nossa existência.
Hoje, faço um apelo à minha comunidade e a outras: a Magellan Charities precisa da vossa ajuda. Durante demasiado tempo, demasiados de vós permaneceram à margem, assumindo que a construção da comunidade deve ser feita por outros, esquecendo a propagação cultural e substituindo-a por reconhecimento político e medalhas, enquanto outros sugerem que aqueles que tiveram a coragem de dar um passo à frente e se tornar focos de mudança não passam de colonizadores de interesse próprio no meio de uma população que nunca teve a coragem de assumir riscos. É chegada a hora de ser um obstáculo à cobardia que abunda nas comunidades.
Há algo de profundamente errado numa sociedade que consegue falar sem fim sobre progresso e salvação cultural, compaixão e direitos humanos, mas que volta as costas aos idosos que precisam de cuidados, dignidade e compreensão. Vivemos num mundo que celebra o sucesso, o dinheiro e as realizações pessoais, mas que frequentemente se esquece daqueles que passaram a vida a trabalhar para criar famílias e a construir as próprias comunidades de que hoje desfrutamos.
A diáspora portuguesa no Canadá está a atravessar um momento histórico, após 73 anos de introspecção sem sequer o perceber. Aqueles que viram e se preocupam com a mudança da comunidade começaram a fazer um exame de consciência e uma reflexão sobre a atual liderança e sobre a forma como está a ser administrada, para garantir a sobrevivência das alianças que nos trouxeram até aqui. A minha conclusão pessoal é que nos tornamos preguiçosos em relação às nossas obrigações para com os nossos jovens e precisamos de indivíduos corajosos, com ideologias originais, para nos levarem até à próxima geração. A Magellan pode ser um ponto de partida para implementar uma ideologia de mudança, adotando uma responsabilidade moral de cuidado, respeito, ensino e humildade que possa ser bordada no manto que protegerá a nossa identidade como um povo que se importa. O hiperbolismo não tem lugar numa sociedade baseada no cuidado, e o patronato de lideranças falsamente poderosas morrerá como um momento lascivo e temporário, porque o desejo morre com as secreções líquidas.
Não estou zangado com a minha comunidade, apenas desanimado por ver que as pessoas não reconhecem o que é importante na construção comunitária e não contribuem em conformidade. Os nossos idosos não são um fardo; são pessoas com histórias para contar, lições para partilhar e memórias que unem gerações. No entanto, quando ficam frágeis ou dependentes, alguns veem-se sozinhos, esquecidos e tratados como um inconveniente. Esta é uma forma vergonhosa de julgar o valor humano. Se esquecermos aqueles que ajudaram a construir o nosso mundo, que tipo de mundo estamos a deixar para as gerações que se seguem?
No dia 7 de novembro, a Magellan vai realizar um evento maravilhoso para angariar fundos. Precisamos que a comunidade se una e patrocine o evento através da compra de bilhetes. Lembrem-se de que a Magellan é um projeto da comunidade. Não é verdade?
Manuel DaCosta/MS
A Community that Gives, Thrives
Zohran Mamdani said, “Replace the frigidity of rugged individuals with the warmth of a collective vision.”
Rugged individualism can be a reference to a narcissistic view of a community which assumes that as long as it operates in accordance with self-prognosis that suggests “who’s gonna save me but myself?,” than no one else matters.
The world cannot operate with autocratic sentiments that only serve individualism. Society needs open minds that view those around each other as ambassadors that can bring harmony to a broken world and where giving back is not an obligation but an experience about harmonizing our minds and our existence. Today, I’m appealing to my community and others that Magellan Charities needs your help. For too long, too many of you have stayed on the sidelines assuming that community building is to be done by others forgetting cultural propagation and substituting with political recognition and medals while others suggest that those who had the courage to step up and become hamlets for change at self-serving colonizers within a population who never had the courage to become risk takers. It is now time to become a liability to the cowardice which abound in communities. There is something deeply wrong with a society that can speak endlessly about progress and cultural salvation, compassion and human rights, yet turns its back on elderly people who need care, dignity and understanding. We live in a world that celebrates success, money and personal achievement, but too often forgets those who spent their lives working to raise families and building the very communities we enjoy today. The Portuguese diaspora within Canada is traversing an historical moment in time after 73 years of introspection without even realizing it. Those of us who have seen and care about the community change have begun to undertake self-examination and reflection on the current leadership and how it’s being administered to ensure survival of the covenants which have brought us here. My personal conclusion is that we have become lazy about our obligations to our youth and we need courageous individuals with original ideologies to carry us to our next generation. ⁷ Magellan can be a stepping stone, which implements an ideology for change, adopting a morality based responsibility of care, respect, teaching and humbleness which can be embroidered into the mantle that will protect our identity as a people that care. Hyperbolism has no place in a society based on care and patronage by faux powerful leaderships will die as a temporary lascivious moment because lust dies with liquid secretions. I’m not angry with my community, only discouraged that people don’t recognize what’s important in community building and contribute accordingly. Our elderly are not a burden, they are people with stories to tell, lessons to share and memories that connect generations. Yet, when they become frail or dependent, some find themselves alone, forgotten and treated as an inconvenience. This is a shameful way to judge human value. If we forget those who help build our world, what kind of world are we leaving for the generations to follow?
On November 7th, Magellan is holding a wonderful event to raise funds. We need the community to come together and sponsor the event by buying tickets. Remember that Magellan is a community project. Isn’t it?
Manuel DaCosta/MS
La salida anticipada de Christine Lagarde
La presidenta del Banco Central Europeo (BCE), Christine Lagarde, confirmó este jueves lo que era un secreto a voces: su marcha anticipada de la institución el próximo mes de febrero, en vez de octubre de 2027, como estaba previsto. Lo que ha precipitado la decisión ha sido la complicada situación política que atraviesa su país, Francia, en vísperas de unas elecciones presidenciales la próxima primavera que pueden llevar por primera vez a la extrema derecha al Elíseo. Lagarde asegura “no poder permanecer neutral” en esta campaña, como le exigiría su cargo, aunque ha dado a entender que ella no es candidata. La salida de Lagarde activa una remodelación de la cúpula del BCE. Y permite que las capitales pacten los nombramientos de la principal institución financiera de la eurozona al inicio de un ciclo electoral que marcará el rumbo del continente.
© Heiko Becker (REUTERS)
A Europa no banco de trás do carro chinês
Netanyahu contra las urnas
Benjamín Netanyahu se ha lanzado a deslegitimar el proceso electoral israelí, es decir, la democracia que él mismo lidera, con una acusación de injerencia que no solo refleja su ya conocida tendencia a cuestionar las instituciones cuando estas no le benefician, sino su desprecio hacia el 20% de la población israelí que es de origen árabe y que en esta ocasión ha votado en masa. Lo hace después de perder la mayoría parlamentaria en las elecciones celebradas el martes y ante un escenario en el que los partidos árabes israelíes, con un resultado histórico, se han convertido en el potencial árbitro político del país.

© Erik Marmor (Getty Images)
<![CDATA[ A missão presidencial ]]>
Open to investigation: On the challenge to the Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2023
Deemed ineligible: On the Supreme Court and SIR
<![CDATA[ Minorias de arruaceiros ]]>
Catástrofes inasumibles

Por segunda vez en nueve meses, España entera está sobrecogida ante las imágenes de dos trenes de alta velocidad destrozados sobre una vía en medio del campo, las pavorosas cifras de muertos y los impactantes relatos de los supervivientes de un accidente ferroviario que tendrá su propia página en la historia. Casi 400 personas viajaban en el tren AVE que, a las 8.53 de este miércoles, chocó con un tren Iryo parado en la vía Madrid-Andalucía a la altura de Urda (Toledo) con otras 146 personas a bordo. El balance de 69 muertos es aún provisional. El número de heridos supera el centenar. En estas horas críticas, es necesario transmitir a quienes han perdido a un ser querido la empatía y solidaridad de toda la sociedad española. Los testimonios de las familias y de los supervivientes serán el ancla para no olvidar en ningún momento las dimensiones de este drama humano.
Peace in Ukraine: the easy way – or the hard way
Diplomacy offers an easy way to peace. But if the West insists on the hard way, then Russia will deliver that way too.
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Diplomacy, as the saying goes, is the art of the possible. A peaceful settlement to the war in Ukraine is possible if all sides were to engage in genuine diplomacy. That’s the easy, more civilized way.
If not, Russia will achieve peace the hard way through complete military victory.
Diplomacy is being prevented because European politicians, in particular, are held hostage by their own twisted ideology and false propaganda.
Ironically, the NATO proxy war in Ukraine was intended to “strategically defeat” Russia. It turns out, however, that it is the NATO axis that is staring at a historic defeat. The chaos surging across Europe is a manifestation of that failure, driven by higher energy prices and reckless, unsustainable militarism.
Thus, peace in Ukraine is concomitant with peace in Europe, and diplomacy would expedite that to obviate more instability and suffering.
But diplomacy is incompatible with parties who possess a diseased mentality of Russophobia.
Diplomatic engagement involves putting pragmatic interests first, ahead of ideological bias. The pragmatic interest of everyone surely should be to find an end to this nearly five-year war that has caused millions of casualties and runs the risk of escalating to a general war in Europe.
The Trump administration appears to be renewing peace efforts by dispatching a presidential envoy to Russia this week. Russian President Vladimir Putin cordially greeted American envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg. It is unimaginable that any European politician or envoy would be capable of that rudimentary courtesy. Putin reiterated that Russia’s door is open for negotiations.
Diplomacy can create a path to peace sooner, as internationally renowned Professor Jeffrey Sachs advocated in an eminently reasonable presentation this week.
Key issues for a peace agreement include: 1) indivisible security for all; 2) permanent neutrality status for Ukraine; 3) an armistice, not a temporary ceasefire, based on current lines of conflict; and 4) a declaration by NATO to halt its eastward expansion.
The framework for peace proposed by Sachs is similar to Russia’s position. It addresses the causes of conflict rather than only its symptoms.
Professor Sachs points out that these are not new principles. They were recognized and agreed upon in the past by the United States, its European allies, and Ukraine. In the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, the U.S., Soviet Union, and European states accepted the principle that security is not a zero-sum game. All states must have a mutual right to security.
On the issue of permanent neutrality of Ukraine, that was declared in its constitution when it established independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. The seeking of NATO membership for Ukraine overturns that principle. It was the United States under President GW Bush that initiated the drive for NATO membership with the Bucharest Declaration in 2008, which was repudiated by Russia with the warning that it would inevitably lead to conflict, as history proves.
Sachs also points out that the United States and its NATO allies must return to the pledge made to the Soviet Union in 1989 that there would be no eastward expansion of the military bloc. It is basic common sense that the encroachment of NATO forces on Russia’s borders is destabilizing and a source of confrontation. The relentless expansion is a violation of the principle of indivisible security. Would the United States accept a situation where Mexico was installing Russian or Chinese military forces?
As for the cessation of hostilities and the drawing of territorial lines, that is a thorny issue. Moscow claims that it has a historical right to the territories east and south of the Dniper River, including Sumy, Kharkov, Kherson and Odessa, in addition to the Donbass and, of course, Crimea.
What is unrealistic is for Ukraine to claim the total return of territories that Russia has taken since 2022 (and 2014 in the case of Crimea). From Russia’s point of view, and many international historians would concur, the post-1991 composition of Ukraine was an artifice. It arbitrarily incorporated lands that were historically always part of Russia. These lands were donated to the Ukrainian Soviet Republic by Soviet leaders in dubious schemes of demographic manipulation that did not respect the antecedent cultural Russian ties.
In any case, a framework for a permanent peaceful settlement is feasible if all sides engage in honest discussions that recognize the historical background.
When U.S. President Donald Trump met Russia’s Putin in Anchorage back in August 2025, there seemed to be an acceptance by the American side of Russia’s perspective on addressing “root causes”. Subsequently, Trump failed to follow through on what appeared to be a breakthrough meeting in Anchorage. Part of the problem was the Europeans and the Kiev regime thwarting Trump’s initiative and throwing obstacles in the way of negotiations. European leaders insisted on a temporary ceasefire and NATO peacekeepers, and have persisted in treating Russia like a pariah.
The international context has shifted in a way that makes Trump more amenable. His disastrous war with Iran has blown fuel prices sky-high for American consumers. With the mid-term elections only weeks away, the White House needs some good news to prevent a political wipeout for the Republicans.
Trump made a deal with Putin two weeks ago for diesel supplies from Russia to ease the pain at the pump for American voters. Essential to that is for Ukraine to stop air strikes on Russian oil facilities. The corrupt puppet president in Kiev, Vladimir Zelensky, is defying Trump with churlish remarks and threats to keep striking Russian oil refineries and depots.
One positive thing from the rift with Zelensky is Trump viewing him as the obstacle to a peace deal. Trump is now openly castigating the Ukrainian former comedian and calling for a new president in that country.
The cocaine addict Zelensky, with his loathsome war racketeering, is hanging on to power by a thread, and only because of continuing support from European leaders. These elitist European politicians are driven by anti-Russian ideology and servility to the futile geopolitical agenda of strategically defeating Russia. Europe is witnessing a social upheaval bordering on revolution over the fallout from the soaring cost of living, which is, in turn, a consequence of the NATO proxy war in Ukraine. But the elites have no way to address the chaos because they are the problem.
For all his flaws, and there are many, at least Trump is willing to engage in diplomacy. He is not encumbered with hatred of Russia. His understanding of the root causes of the war may be limited. But at least his administration has the basic quality of respecting Russia as an equal and listening to Russia’s perspective. That is a modicum for negotiations and the art of the possible.
By contrast, the European elites and their pet regime in Kiev are incapable of engaging in any diplomacy. They are obsessed with unattainable and sinister ideological prejudices that hark back to Nazi Germany and the belief that Russians are “subhumans” to be conquered. They have no respect for Russia, nor are they capable of any intelligent, honest discussion about the causes of conflict.
Jeffrey Sachs contends that Trump could promptly end the war and create peace if he were to make a clear policy announcement that the United States is returning to a position whereby it respects indivisible security for all, including Russia, accepts permanent neutrality of Ukraine with no future as a NATO member, and declares that NATO ends its eastward expansion. A rational path to peace is possible.
There will be howls of condemnation from the Kiev regime and its European sponsors. There will be howls too from within the U.S. establishment who share the European ideology of demonizing and belligerence towards Russia. Trump may be so weakened by the mid-term elections that it is not politically possible for him to make such a policy announcement.
So be it. Russia will continue to win its military objectives and demand its rightful terms of peace. Diplomacy offers an easy way to peace. But if the West insists on the hard way, then Russia will deliver that way too. The Europeans and Kiev regime will pay an even higher price with their own implosion.
Fuelling Moscow’s war machine? U.S. and Europe are buying record levels of Russian energy exports
The war in Ukraine has always been about fomenting a proxy war to defeat Russia.
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The contradictions are absurd but instructive of the criminal proxy war that the U.S. and European powers have perpetrated against Russia under the guise of “defending Ukraine”.
Western sanctions on Russia – the most heavily sanctioned nation on Earth – were meant to supposedly punish Moscow for its alleged unprovoked aggression against Ukraine.
The United States recently signed into law a “sanctions bill from hell” in honor of the late war hawk Senator Lindsey Graham, aimed at crushing the Russian economy, principally by shutting down its energy exports.
Likewise, the European Union has implemented more than 20 rounds of sanctions imposed on Russia over the past four years, again purportedly to block Russian exports of oil and gas. The EU has vowed to terminate all Russian energy imports by the end of this year.
The official rationale out of Washington and European capitals is to exact retribution on Russia for its alleged invasion and violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Western embargoes on Russia’s economy were immediately announced after Moscow launched its Special Military Operation in February 2022. (The real background to the SMO – unreported by Western media – was the NATO-backed coup in Kiev in 2014, and the arming of NeoNazis to conduct a proxy war against Russia.)
The U.S. and European Union, as well as Britain of course, presented the attempted economic blockade of Russia as a demonstration of the West enforcing international law and supporting Ukraine. The latter is portrayed in Western media as a fair maiden of democracy assailed by a drooling Russian tyrant.
In a nutshell, the sanctions are sold to the Western public as a plausible way of neutralizing “Russia’s war machine.” If Moscow’s oil and gas exports could be cut off, then, the dubious logic goes, Russia would not be able to continue its war effort in Ukraine.
However, laughably, the supposedly noble Western rationale is in tatters this week after the U.S. Treasury lifted sanctions off Russian diesel exports for the next six months in order to boost global oil supplies and curb soaring energy prices.
Another shattering blow to the facade of Western “principles” was the disclosure by Russia’s energy minister, Alexander Novak, that the European Union has continued to buy Russian energy exports at nearly pre-war levels. (Cue Western media silence on that!)
Since 2022, the EU has bought a total of $320 billion worth of Russian hydrocarbons. To put the expenditure in perspective, that far exceeds what the European governments have donated to Ukraine, some $226 bn, according to EU data.
How’s that for a contradiction? The European governments are throwing hundreds of billions of taxpayers’ money at Ukraine supposedly to defend itself against Russia, yet these same governments are giving Russia much, much more by buying its energy resources. In other words, to use their own rhetoric, Brussels and other European capitals are “fuelling the Russian war machine.”
As for the United States, it is equally duplicitous. The Americans blew up the Nord Stream pipeline in 2022 so that Europe would not be at the mercy of Russian oil dependency. Washington also imposed sanctions on Russian energy while increasing its more expensive gas exports to Europe. Yet last Friday, October 9, President Donald Trump announced, to the dismay and alarm of the Europeans and Ukraine, that he had made a deal with Vladimir Putin to release 3.5 million tonnes of Russian diesel onto the world market to ease pressure on crippling pump prices.
Whatever happened to American laws against “trading with the enemy”?
Of course, Trump is desperate for relief over record-high fuel prices as a result of his criminal aggression against Iran and Iran’s closure of the Persian Gulf oil route in retaliation. With the mid-term Congressional elections only three weeks away, Trump is seeking to assuage angry American consumers and spare his Republican Party from an electoral drubbing that will tarnish his presidency.
Out of sheer expedience, Trump wants Russian diesel exports to save his political neck. Some observers may question whether Moscow should oblige Trump considering that Washington is arming the NeoNazi Kiev regime with missiles and intelligence. Perhaps the Kremlin is calculating that Trump could finally pull off a peace deal in Ukraine.
Another smart move by Moscow, perhaps, is that the diesel deal with Trump has managed to unleash a storm of recriminations from Europe and Ukraine, which is severely undermining the transatlantic axis. Is this political judo by Putin?
The European NATO partners and the Kiev puppet president Vladimir Zelensky reacted with unprecedented insults and defiance of Trump. They accused the American leader of treachery and of siding with Russia. Within Washington, Trump has also been lambasted for “betrayal”.
Trump and his aides hit back furiously, dismissing the Europeans as “hypocrites” over their own record purchases of Russian energy exports. Trump even called for Zelensky to be replaced by someone who he can work with.
For his part, Zelensky doubled down with truculence, badmouthing Trump for being “weak” and accusing him of putting Ukrainian lives at risk. He refused to stop Ukrainian air strikes on Russia’s oil refineries, as requested by the White House. And the little money-grabbing, narco-Führer also attempted blackmail by suggesting to Trump that he would halt air attacks on Russian energy infrastructure “if” the Pentagon supplied more Patriot missiles.
Trump’s anger has exploded over Zelensky and his European patrons. He sees their obstruction of his diesel deal with Russia as not only hypocritical but a political attack on his presidency ahead of the crucial November polls.
The debacle is a rich farce. American and European posturing is seen for what it is, without any principle or genuine motives. It is a plague on all their houses.
Both the U.S. and its European partners are buying Russian energy like never before to sustain their struggling economies. The sanctions they imposed on Russia never had anything to do with “upholding international law” or “defending Ukraine”.
Using their own disingenuous logic, the NATO nations are fuelling the Russian war machine with their continuing business-as-usual purchase of Russia’s oil and gas.
That contradiction, in turn, exposes the fraud of the war in Ukraine. It was never about defending democratic Ukraine – a corrupt NeoNazi dictatorship – or European security from Russian “threat”.
The whole murderous episode has always been about fomenting a proxy war to defeat Russia. That covert policy is a gargantuan crime of aggression that has cost millions of lives and bankrupted Western societies. What’s more, it is an utterly failed policy which Western governments are covering up to avoid accountability. The destruction and deception go hand in hand.
What is all the more damning is that this travesty could have been easily exposed years ago if the Western news media had actually reported on facts instead of being the propaganda service they so evidently are to enable criminal aggression by their imperialist masters.
Le monde ou rien
Quel est le point commun entre Augusto Pinochet, Frédéric Encel et Le Monde diplomatique ? Le premier a enseigné la géopolitique à l'université militaire de Santiago et publié un traité intitulé Geopolítica cinq ans avant son coup d'État au Chili, en 1973. Le deuxième compte au nombre des experts les plus fréquemment invités dans les médias, où il savoure avec un sourire faraud l'énoncé de sa qualité : « docteur en géopolitique ». Le troisième a conçu le manuel que vous avez sous les yeux pour interroger les visions du monde portées par les deux premiers : pour l'un, la compétition entre États pensés comme des organismes voués à la conquête de leur espace vital ; pour l'autre, l'idée que la politique internationale se réduit à l'affrontement entre démocraties libérales et régimes autoritaires, au nom de valeurs que l'Occident aurait vocation à défendre et, au besoin, à diffuser.
Si la vieille géopolitique allemande dont s'inspirait Pinochet a été reléguée aux livres d'histoire, la croisade morale que mènent les éditorialistes connaît, avec le conflit russo-ukrainien et les massacres israéliens à Gaza, un moment de consécration en même temps qu'une mise à l'épreuve. Désorientés par le lâchage de leur tuteur américain, les dirigeants européens et leurs relais médiatiques tiennent simultanément deux discours incompatibles : l'agresseur russe menace les démocraties ouvertes, lesquelles soutiennent l'Ukraine qui se « bat pour nos valeurs » ; mais l'agresseur israélien, qui bombarde ses voisins et multiplie les crimes contre l'humanité, ne fait qu'exercer son « droit de se défendre ».
La supériorité morale de l'Occident, fondement de la politique étrangère
Une telle contradiction, sur des sujets qui engagent la sécurité du continent, serait relevée sans relâche si l'univers des commentateurs internationaux n'était pas aussi étroitement quadrillé. Le statut convoité d'invité permanent suppose de cocher plusieurs cases : atlantiste, pro-européen, adepte d'un idéalisme qui fait de la supériorité morale de l'Occident le fondement de la politique étrangère. Ainsi sélectionnés, analystes et stratèges semblent reprendre le flambeau des néoconservateurs américains, discrédités au mitan des années 2000 par l'aventurisme de George W. Bush.
Leur passion de la démocratie ne supporte pas la contradiction : en France, les voix dissidentes en matière de politique étrangère sont si rarement sollicitées par la presse dominante que chacune des interventions de Dominique de Villepin, Emmanuel Todd, Pascal Boniface ou John Mearsheimer suscite un vif succès d'audience. Le raidissement occidentaliste des commentateurs exprime, faute de mieux, la réaction d'un Vieux Continent déclinant face à une puissance américaine toujours dominante et à l'essor de la Chine. Le contretemps est manifeste : après la crise financière de 2008, historiens, intellectuels publics et journalistes exhortaient leur public à « décentrer le regard » pour penser « un monde multipolaire ». Presque vingt ans plus tard, il reste impossible, à écouter le clergé géopolitique, de se faire une idée de la manière dont les puissances émergentes voient le monde, nous perçoivent, se projettent.
Cette incapacité à regarder ailleurs tient aussi au petit monde qui fabrique le savoir géopolitique. À cheval entre universités, chancelleries et groupes de réflexion, ce milieu fonctionne en vase clos. Il élabore des récits globaux qui s'imposent moins par la force des arguments que par leur répétition. La matière peut paraître rébarbative, réservée à un milieu d'initiés dont les représentants rappellent le jugement d'Étienne Bonnot de Condillac sur ses adversaires philosophiques : « Ils doivent leur réputation à l'importance des sujets dont ils s'occupent plutôt qu'à la manière dont ils les traitent. » (1) L'introduction de la géopolitique dans certaines filières de l'enseignement secondaire n'a pas encore suffi à combler le fossé entre l'importance des enjeux internationaux pour quiconque participe à la vie publique et leur confiscation par un cercle restreint de spécialistes.
La politique étrangère engage en effet la guerre et la paix, la sécurité de populations entières. Pourtant, les choix militaires et les grandes orientations stratégiques restent largement soustraits à la discussion publique. Au cours des deux dernières décennies, la France a engagé des opérations en Afghanistan, en Côte d'Ivoire, en Libye, au Mali et dans le Sahel, en République centrafricaine, en Irak et en Syrie sans que leurs objectifs, leurs résultats ou leurs conséquences fassent l'objet d'un véritable examen démocratique ; ces interventions extérieures sont d'ailleurs restées largement absentes des campagnes présidentielles. Aujourd'hui, l'explosion des budgets de défense et la militarisation de la politique étrangère européenne, qui servent de palliatif à sa marginalisation diplomatique, s'imposent, elles aussi, sans débat. D'autres choix stratégiques, d'autres priorités diplomatiques seraient pourtant nécessaires quand les interdépendances, le dérèglement climatique, les pandémies, les bouleversements technologiques ou les risques liés à la prolifération nucléaire appellent de nouvelles formes de coopération internationale.
Ce Manuel d'autodéfense intellectuelle entend donner à chacun les outils pour se forger une opinion éclairée sur les conflits et la situation internationale. Appuyé sur les acquis de la recherche, il passe au crible les grandes idées reçues qui façonnent les représentations du monde depuis la fin de la guerre froide. Son appareil cartographique explore les rapports entre espace et puissance — dont le contrôle du détroit d'Ormuz illustre l'importance. Car, si le XXIe siècle offre à la géographie sa revanche sur la Terre prétendument plate et sans histoire de la mondialisation, se réapproprier la géopolitique ouvre un possible nécessaire : contester aux dirigeants le monopole des affaires du monde.
(1) Cité par Olivier Zajec, Nicholas John Spykman, l'invention de la géopolitique américaine, Sorbonne Université Presses, Paris, 2016.
Un défi existentiel
Des sirènes hurlantes, des embouteillages monstres étendus sur des kilomètres, des forces de l'ordre déployées dans les rues pour dissuader émeutes, manifestations et pillages tandis que quatorze millions d'habitants évacuent Téhéran et sa banlieue. Ces scènes dignes d'un film dystopique auraient pu avoir lieu. Ce n'est pas la menace du président américain Donald Trump de faire disparaître la civilisation iranienne en une nuit (lire « Une journée comme une autre ») qui en aurait été la cause, mais un ordre des autorités de la République islamique. En novembre 2025, les pluies d'automne ne sont pas au rendez-vous. L'Iran connaît la pire sécheresse depuis un siècle. Les cinq barrages qui approvisionnent la capitale sont presque à sec et les coupures d'eau sont quotidiennes, surtout la nuit. La tension est identique dans la ville de Machhad (nord-est), que quatre barrages environnants sont bien en peine d'alimenter. Le président Massoud Pezechkian met alors en garde ses compatriotes. Si la situation ne s'améliore pas, il faudra évacuer la mégapole et ses environs (1). Pour le long terme, il évoque même un possible transfert définitif de la capitale surpeuplée vers la région de Makran, près du détroit d'Ormuz. Un projet jugé irréalisable par nombre d'experts mais dont l'évocation frappe tout de même les esprits, tant elle conforte l'idée d'un choc environnemental majeur à venir.
Des villages entiers sont privés d'eau potable, l'exode rural s'aggrave, les équilibres sociaux et territoriaux sont bouleversés
La hausse, toute relative, de la pluviométrie au premier semestre 2026 a conjuré le scénario de l'évacuation forcée, mais le problème de fond demeure. Trente-cinq millions d'Iraniens sont confrontés quotidiennement à la pénurie d'eau. Les réserves totales ont diminué de 211 kilomètres cubes entre 2003 et 2019 — l'équivalent de deux années de consommation nationale —, tandis que le niveau moyen des nappes souterraines a fortement baissé (2). Dans certaines régions, notamment dans l'Est et dans le Sud, l'eau potable n'est accessible aux habitants que via des camions-citernes payants, ce qui provoque de longues files d'attente. Une centaine de zones humides ont disparu, et l'assèchement des rivières contribue à l'aggravation des tempêtes de poussière qui sévissent à partir du printemps.
Contrairement au discours officiel, la sécheresse et le réchauffement climatique, présentés comme une fatalité, ne sont pas les seuls responsables de cette crise. C'est aussi, et avant tout, une affaire de mauvaise gestion et de politiques environnementales erratiques depuis les années 1970. « La pénurie d'eau en Iran, particulièrement à Téhéran, n'est pas un phénomène passager ou le résultat d'une seule année de sécheresse, écrit ainsi le très critique quotidien économique de Téhéran Jahan-e Sanat. C'est le signe d'un déséquilibre profond et structurel du système national d'approvisionnement et de consommation » (17 février 2026).
Autrement dit, l'Iran manque d'une politique centralisée et cohérente de l'eau qui arbitrerait entre les besoins. Les efforts consentis en faveur de l'agriculture — laquelle représente 90 % de la consommation des ressources hydriques — sont pointés du doigt. Afin de procurer des revenus décents aux populations rurales, mais aussi pour garantir la sécurité alimentaire d'un pays exposé aux sanctions internationales, les autorités ont multiplié les mesures pour doper la production agricole. Des dizaines de barrages et de retenues plus modestes ont été construits un peu partout, le plus souvent sans planification ni études préalables, déplaçant des populations et affectant les écosystèmes. Faute d'entretien, nombre de ces structures sont délabrées ou connaissent des taux d'envasement élevés. Le gouvernement est tout aussi incapable de contrôler la consommation d'eau des sites industriels, surtout quand ils sont liés à des dignitaires du régime ou à la galaxie interlope des gardiens de la révolution.
Dans le même temps, les forages illégaux se multiplient et contribuent à la diminution des ressources. Un comble quand on sait que l'Iran s'enorgueillit de techniques plurimillénaires de gestion rationnelle de l'eau souterraine — tels les fameux qanat ou galeries. La corruption et le népotisme endémiques ont ainsi engendré des passe-droits qui génèrent le gaspillage et des inégalités d'accès. Tout le contraire de la traditionnelle « justice de l'eau » garantissant sa répartition équitable.
« Des groupes paraétatiques et paramilitaires contrôlent les ressources naturelles, notamment l'eau, à travers la construction et la gestion de barrages », confirme la chercheuse Dorna Javan (3). Tout cela a un coût. Des villages entiers sont privés d'eau potable, l'exode rural s'aggrave, et ce sont les équilibres sociaux et territoriaux qui sont bouleversés.
Jusqu'à présent, le régime a minimisé, pour ne pas dire nié, l'importance des problèmes écologiques. La recherche sur ces thèmes est entravée, comme l'a montré la répression subie par les personnes qui ont lancé l'alerte, il y a plus de dix ans, concernant le brutal assèchement d'Ourmia, qui fut le plus grand lac du Proche-Orient et qui a quasiment disparu. Mais la réalité risque fort de rattraper un pouvoir de plus en plus contesté. On le sait, l'absence de libertés individuelles et politiques, la corruption, la crise économique, l'effondrement de la monnaie, les sanctions internationales et les attaques américano-israéliennes sont autant de dangers pour la pérennité du régime islamique. Mais, avec la crise de l'eau, c'est l'avenir d'un pays et de son peuple qui se joue.
(1) Agence France-Presse (AFP), 22 novembre 2025.
(2) Peyman Saemian, Mohammad Tourian, Amir AghaKouchak, Kaveh Madani et Nico Sneuuw, « How much water did Iran lose over the last two decades ? », Journal of Hydrology : Regional Studies, vol. 41, Amsterdam, juin 2022.
(3) « Dorna Javan : En Iran, les crises environnementales agissent comme un puissant accélérateur du mécontentement social », entretien accordé à Eva Sammadar, Reporterre, 21 janvier 2026.
Macron, worst ever president?
Emmanuel Macron leaves the Élysée in eight months. And, in keeping with the political journalism tradition whereby last-minute criticism apparently makes up for a decade of deference, the brickbats are coming thick and fast. The Economist, having once regarded him as the ‘saviour of Europe', now mocks a ‘lame duck' president. Two Parisian courtiers have devoted a book to ‘the story of an exceptional man … who screwed things up in an exceptional way'. Alain Minc, mouthpiece of the liberal (…)
- 2026/09 / editorialFut-il le pire ?
Dans huit mois, M. Emmanuel Macron quittera l'Élysée. Et, suivant la tradition du journalisme politique, comme si une heure de dissidence rachetait une décennie de révérences, les critiques fusent. L'hebdomadaire The Economist moque un « canard boiteux » après avoir cru au « sauveur de l'Europe ». Deux courtisans parisiens racontent dans un livre « l'histoire d'un homme exceptionnel… qui s'est exceptionnellement planté ». Porte-voix des élites libérales, M. Alain Minc voit en lui le « pire président de la Ve République (1) ».
Ingratis servire nefas — « on ne gagne rien à servir les ingrats ». Car, depuis 2017, M. Macron a, largement, suivi les orientations du rapport Minc (1994) ou de la commission dirigée par M. Jacques Attali (2008), dont il était alors l'adjoint. De même celles de l'Union européenne ou de l'Organisation du traité de l'Atlantique nord (OTAN) sur les dépenses de défense. Davantage qu'aucun de ses prédécesseurs, ce président a débarrassé la diplomatie du Quai d'Orsay des traces d'indépendance qui la distinguait encore. Paris a désormais la politique russe de Kiev, la politique vénézuélienne de Washington, la politique iranienne d'Abou Dhabi, la politique commerciale de Berlin, et plus de politique africaine du tout depuis que les États du Sahel ont congédié son armée.
M. Macron a aussi achevé de transformer l'État en Comité de salut privé, assurant des dividendes record aux actionnaires (2). La France est devenue un paradis pour les fonds spéculatifs, qui ont désormais la main sur des milliers d'entreprises, dont plusieurs fleurons. La Sécurité sociale, elle, n'a plus vocation à allouer à chacun selon ses besoins, tandis que le service public, asphyxié, vire au cauchemar pour les agents et les usagers.
Le président a joué la partition de l'extrême centre libéral atlantiste en virtuose. Mais à contretemps. Héros de la mondialisation et du dépassement de la politique, il n'a vu venir ni l'éclipse de l'une ni le retour de l'autre. Démonétisée par la résurgence internationale de la souveraineté ou de la planification, sa stratégie de l'offre a échoué. Le chômage repart à la hausse, la croissance stagne. Le déficit commercial reste élevé, au point que la moitié de l'empreinte carbone nationale tient aux émissions importées ; celui des finances publiques justifierait le manque de pompiers comme de Canadair.
C'est donc un pays livré aux flammes que M. Macron nargue sur son Jet-Ski en trombe. L'allégorie d'un mandat qui s'achève dans une double fuite en avant. La cause ukrainienne doit, d'une part, ressouder son camp après la dissolution ratée de l'Assemblée nationale et relancer l'industrie de défense européenne. Au nom de l'autonomie stratégique. Au risque, surtout, d'un grand réarmement allemand (lire notre dossier), voire d'une confrontation avec la Russie. D'autre part, le choix récent d'un défenseur des droits réactionnaire ou le soutien du gouvernement à une présomption de légitime défense pour les forces de l'ordre confirment le verrouillage opéré depuis quelques années.
« Voilà un homme qui a réprimé les libertés (…) avec une violence sans précédent (…). Et qui vient dire ensuite que Marine Le Pen est un danger pour les libertés individuelles et la démocratie, constatait déjà la favorite de la prochaine présidentielle dans Le Figaro il y a cinq ans. C'est une plaisanterie. » Au soir du 7 mai 2017, M. Macron avait, lui, eu ce mot à propos des électeurs de Mme Le Pen : « Je ferai tout pour qu'ils n'aient plus aucune raison de voter pour les extrêmes. » Deux quinquennats plus tard, on mesure le résultat.
(1) The Economist, Londres, 8 janvier 2026 ; Nicolas Domenach et Maurice Szafran, Néron à l'Élysée. Comment il a tout gâché, Albin Michel, Paris, 2026 ; Alain Minc dans L'Express, Paris, 7 octobre 2025.
(2) Lire Pierre Rimbert et Grégory Rzepski, « Le Comité de salut privé », Le Monde diplomatique, septembre 2022.
Governar ou representar?
Hoje assinala-se o Dia Mundial do Teatro. Em teoria, é um dia para celebrar a arte, os
atores, os textos que nos fazem pensar e sentir. O teatro, quando é sério, não é só
entretenimento, é um espelho desconfortável daquilo que somos. Expõe, provoca,
obriga a encarar verdades que muitas vezes preferíamos evitar.
Talvez por isso seja impossível não fazer um paralelismo com aquilo em que se
transformou a nossa vida política.
Há qualquer coisa de profundamente teatral — no pior sentido da palavra — na forma
como hoje se faz política. Não no sentido nobre da representação, mas na encenação
vazia. Nos discursos cuidadosamente ensaiados. Nas indignações seletivas. Nas
conferências de imprensa onde já se sabe, à partida, o que vai ser dito e como vai ser
dito.
Tudo parece coreografado. Nada parece espontâneo.
Os políticos falam, mas raramente dizem. Prometem, mas quase nunca se
comprometem. E, acima de tudo, representam proximidade, representam convicção,
representam firmeza. É uma sucessão de papéis, ajustados ao momento, ao público e
às sondagens.
O problema é que isto já não engana muita gente.
Ao contrário do teatro a sério, onde há talento, trabalho e respeito por quem está a
ver, esta versão política da representação vive de clichés e de frases feitas. É uma peça
repetida vezes sem conta, com pequenas variações, mas sempre com o mesmo fundo:
pouco conteúdo e muita aparência.
E depois há o público — nós. Durante muito tempo, aceitámos este papel de
espectadores. Uns aplaudem, outros assobiam, mas no fundo continuamos sentados, à
espera que a peça melhore.
O mais grave é que, enquanto se representa, o essencial vai ficando por fazer. Os
problemas acumulam-se, as decisões adiam-se, e a realidade — essa, que não se deixa
encenar — acaba sempre por impor-se.
Talvez este Dia Mundial do Teatro sirva, pelo menos, para isto: para nos lembrar que
há uma diferença enorme entre representar bem e fingir mal.
A política não precisa de mais atores. Precisa de menos teatro.
(Aqui tem uma gravação com o texto lido pela autora)
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