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María Corina Machado on Venezuela’s Future and Her Relationship With the Trump Administration

Blocked from entering her country, Venezuela’s opposition leader spoke with The Times about her efforts to return and her relationship with the Trump administration.

© Nathalia Angarita for The New York Times

María Corina Machado in Panama on Wednesday.
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Rubio visita la più grande raffineria del mondo in India. Trump vuole un accordo con Nuova Delhi per abbassare ancora il prezzo del gasolio

Durante i viaggi ufficiali, solitamente i ministri o i diplomatici si concedono dei momenti privati per visitare determinati siti o luoghi d’interesse nei Paesi che li stanno ospitando. Il segretario di Stato Usa, Marco Rubio, ha tenuto fede a questa tradizione durante la sua recente visita in India. A destare curiosità è stata però la meta scelta: la raffineria di Jamnagar, nello Stato indiano nordoccidentale di Gujarat. Il funzionario statunitense ci è arrivato dopo la tappa compiuta a Mumbai, capitale finanziaria del subcontinente, un itinerario che fa capire la natura soprattutto economica del suo viaggio nel Paese asiatico.

Prevedere un programma di questo tipo è servito all’amministrazione Trump per due scopi principali: primo, evitare tensioni politiche con l’India in una fase di grande vicinanza tra Stati Uniti e Pakistan, arcinemico del gigante asiatico. Ulteriore dimostrazione di questa volontà è il fatto che Rubio non abbia incontrato il primo ministro indiano, Narendra Modi, ma solamente il suo omologo, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Secondo, in questa fase di avvicinamento alle ormai prossime elezioni statunitensi di midterm, l’attenzione della Casa Bianca è tutta dedicata alla necessità di ottenere risultati che gli elettori Usa possano toccare con mano.

E qui si arriva all’impianto di Jamnagar, controllato dalla famiglia del multimiliardario Mukesh Ambani attraverso la società Reliance Industries. La raffineria è la più grande al mondo, al punto da essere in grado di produrre fino a 1,4 milioni di barili di petrolio al giorno, quasi il 2% globale. Un’altra sua particolarità è la capacità di raffinare anche greggio ultra-pesante, come quello che ad esempio esce dai pozzi petroliferi del Venezuela, che richiede cicli di lavorazione molto sofisticati e approfonditi prima di poter essere immesso sul mercato come carburante. Il riferimento al Paese sudamericano non è casuale. Già attualmente l’India è il secondo principale acquirente di greggio proveniente dal Venezuela dietro agli Stati Uniti, che sostengono il governo ad interim che guida Caracas dopo la cattura di Nicolas Maduro del gennaio scorso.

Non sono trapelate dichiarazioni ufficiali dopo la visita di Rubio all’impianto, ma è chiaro come l’obiettivo statunitense sia far sì che l’India aumenti ulteriormente le importazioni di petrolio dal Paese sudamericano e continui a immettere sul mercato diesel a basso costo per calmierare i prezzi a livello globale. C’è da dire che Jamnagar opera già quasi al massimo della sua capacità di raffinazione, ma in ogni caso un maggiore acquisto di petrolio venezuelano potrebbe ridurre le importazioni indiane di greggio russo, uno dei fattori che negli ultimi mesi ha causato maggiori attriti lungo l’asse Washington-Nuova Delhi. Certo, recentemente il presidente Usa Donald Trump ha cambiato tono nei confronti di Mosca – sempre guardando alla riduzione del prezzo del diesel – ma anche solo la diversificazione delle rotte di approvvigionamento favorisce la calma sui mercati internazionali.

Un altro tema che probabilmente è stato affrontato è quello dell’investimento di Reliance Industries sul territorio statunitense. A marzo scorso Trump ha annunciato che la conglomerata indiana avrebbe realizzato una raffineria nei pressi di Brownsville, in Texas, ma da quel momento non sono emersi altri dettagli. Una situazione che ha portato molti osservatori a mettere in dubbio la volontà degli Ambani di procedere. Un tentennamento legato probabilmente anche alla grande vicinanza dell’imprenditore indiano al primo ministro Modi che potrebbe spingere Reliance a tenere in stand-by l’operazione come leva politica nei confronti degli Stati Uniti in una fase di tensione anche sul fronte economico.

Durante la sua visita nel subcontinente, Rubio ha però affermato che la definizione dell’accordo commerciale tra India e Stati Uniti è “incredibilmente vicina”, un’intesa che dovrebbe regolamentare a 360 gradi gli scambi tra i due Paesi e scongiurare l’introduzione di dazi da parte di Washington. Apparentemente, quello del segretario di Stato Usa è stato un viaggio interlocutorio, ma in vista del midterm per Trump ogni sforzo può essere decisivo.

L'articolo Rubio visita la più grande raffineria del mondo in India. Trump vuole un accordo con Nuova Delhi per abbassare ancora il prezzo del gasolio proviene da Il Fatto Quotidiano.

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A 2028 Presidential Poll Finds Vance, Rubio and Several Democrats in the Mix

The Democratic presidential primary race appears to be wide open, while JD Vance and Marco Rubio led among Republican voters, a New York Times/Siena survey found.

© Jillian Vordick/The New York Times

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Cuba Rejects Trump’s New Threats of Military Intervention

In a recent press conference, the Cuban Foreign Minister denounced "brutal pressure and threats from United States" against UN member states to force them to change their vote on the resolution against the blockade. Photo: EFE.

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla on Friday rejected a new threat from U.S. President Donald Trump, who said U.S. ships would make a “small stop” off the island on their return from Iran.


President Donald Trump has issued a new threat against Cuba as U.S. officials reportedly press ahead with military planning for the Caribbean country, an escalation that coincides with an intensified oil blockade and UN vote scheduled for October 28.

At a campaign rally in Fort Myers, the Republican President laid out his plan in vivid terms. “What we are going to do with Cuba is we are going to come back from Iran. Those beautiful ships, we will pass by Cuba, we will have one of them stop about 50 yards (45 meters) from the coast. They will raise their hands and then we will send Marco Rubio to close the deal,” he said.

RELATED: Cuba Denounces U.S. Pressure Ahead of the UN Assembly Vote On Economic Blockade

The U.S. President closed the scene with a concrete promise: “We will take care of Cuba on our return from Iran. We will make a small stop.”

Cuba answered on X. “We reject all threats related to the ambitions of United States toward Cuba,“ wrote the Caribbean nation’s FM Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla.

He added a description of the coastline that carried an unmistakable warning. “Our coastline is full of beautiful beaches, but there ara also razor-sharp limestone spikes,” he said, referring to the karst rock formations along the shore. “Inhospitable to those who arrive with hostile intentions and dreams of domination,” he warned. The jagged coastal limestone, sharp and cutting, gave the response its edge.

We reject every threat related to US ambitions toward Cuba.

Our coastline is full of beautiful beaches, but there are also razor-sharp limestone spikes, an inhospitable environment for those who make it to our shores with hostile purposes and lust for domination.… pic.twitter.com/jrrBc1jR8S

— Bruno Rodríguez P (@BrunoRguezP) October 23, 2026

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio used the same platform to urge those pushing for “change” on the island to engage in “discreet collaboration with the CIA.” In August, The New York Times reported that the intelligence agency had secretly set up a task force focused on Cuba.

The threat came amid a heated campaign in a state that is home to the largest Cuban community in United States. Its lawmakers and an influential segment of that community shape Washington’s decisions on Cuba.

Rodriguez Parrilla’s post also echoes another phrase from the current U.S. President. In March, speaking at the White House, Trump said he would have “the honor of taking Cuba” and that he “could do whatever he wanted with it.” He described Cuba then as a beautiful place, with “good land, landscapes, wonderful weather and great potential for tourism centers.”

On that occasion his unfamiliarity with the territory was on display. He argued that taking control would be good because the country is “not in the path of hurricanes.” “They won’t ask us for money for hurricanes every week,” he said in that time.

Passing by the island after Iran is not a new idea. In early May, while signing the Executive Order that launched an unprecedented wave of unilateral and illegal penalties against Cuba, Trump had already spoken of “taking control” once his military objectives in Iran were met. Following that, he has promised the war will end “immediately” after the November 3 elections, without explaining how.

The new threat coincides with the campaign Rubio himself is leading to sway the votes of UN member states on the resolution against the blockade against Cuba. In a recent press conference, Rodriguez Parrilla denounced the pressures and threats against governments to make them change their position.

In recent weeks the U.S. administration has seized fuel shipments bound for Cuba as part of an oil blockade. The campaign against Cuba’s international medical cooperation has intensified in parallel.

Elections Add Pressure

The escalation arrives at a difficult political moment for the U.S. President. Midterm elections take place on November 3, and the Republican Party could lose control of Congress. Trump’s approval has sagged, and a majority of voters now reject his management of the country’s main fronts, a rejection that cuts across every issue.

The domestic scenario is complicated further by the conflict with Iran. Tehran retains control of the Strait of Hormuz and has inflicted significant destruction on U.S. military bases in West Asia.

Fuel prices keep climbing in the meantime. The increase strikes U.S. households directly, and every rise deepens the damage to the President’s public standing at a moment when he can least afford it.

The pattern toward Cuba has hardened even as those pressures mount at home. The fuel seizures, the diplomatic campaign and the military planning all point in the same direction, toward an increasingly explicit posture of confrontation against the island.

With the United Nations vote set for October 28 and the U.S. midterm elections following days later on November 3, the coming weeks will reveal whether the planning described in U.S. media translates into further concrete action against Cuba, or whether it remains a lever of pressure in a campaign that already weighs heavily on the island.

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Under U.S. Watch, Venezuela Grapples With Tensions Over Democracy

President Trump says Venezuela is not ready for elections, and he focuses instead on its oil. But Secretary of State Marco Rubio is nudging talks between opposing politicians.

© Venezuelan Presidency, via Agence France-Presse

Dinorah Figuera, left, Delcy Rodríguez and Jorge Rodríguez during a meeting at the Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas on Thursday, in a photo released by the Venezuelan presidency.
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The Starlink hot potato: Musk points to Trump, Trump points to nobody, then credits Musk with the fix. The speed limit stays

US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk in the Oval Office on 11 February 2025

US President Donald Trump said Elon Musk had restored Ukraine’s Starshield speeds, but the restrictions remained in place on 23 October, according to Ukrainian officials.

The cap, in place since 14 October, has disrupted interceptor drone missions against jet-powered Shaheds flying above 400 km/h for more than a week. On 16 October, Trump told reporters that, from what he understood, nothing had changed with the service. His latest claim that Musk restored it appears to acknowledge the restriction, even as he denies ordering it.

Ukraine says restrictions remain

“At the moment, there is no confirmation that the restrictions have been lifted,” a Defense Ministry official told LIGA.net on the morning of 23 October. The official said connections continued to drop at above 161 km/h.

Presidential adviser Serhii Beskrestnov wrote on Telegram on 23 October that no lifting had been recorded. He said occasional operation above the limit could result from SpaceX algorithms or usage conditions.

A day earlier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had promised to return with information in “48 plus hours,” according to his remarks to reporters in Kyiv. A Ukrainian official separately told The Kyiv Independent that reports of restored speeds were “all false.”

A senior European official told the Associated Press that the cap remained at about 160 km/h and that Ukraine had no clear explanation of who ordered it or why.

Conflicting reports of a lift

Trump said Musk had restored the speeds but declined to clarify whether he had contacted him.

“I guess the bottom line, he put it back,” Trump said.

Meanwhile, AP reported that the Wall Street Journal said Musk had agreed to lift the restrictions. The Ukrainian drone and mapping channel Kartohraf posted on the evening of 22 October that the cap had been lifted. The Economist’s Oliver Carroll said that frontline drone commanders thought it had likely been lifted but were still testing, according to his post on X.

Who ordered the cap?

The order came from inside the White House, according to a Reuters report on 15 October. Days later, the Wall Street Journal reported that Musk ordered the slowdown. Rubio denied White House involvement, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on 20 October that the US had not ordered the restriction. Meanwhile, Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal announced an inquiry into how the service was slowed, AP reported.

Ukraine’s gains in Donetsk Oblast rely on drones the cap slows

The 3rd Army Corps’ Operation Vivaldi retook ground north of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast with drones, many of which rely on Starlink or Starshield, and those gains could erode if the cap stays.

At the same time, Radio Svoboda reported that Ukraine needs a limit of at least 450 km/h and that Germany pays for the service under a contract running until April 2027.

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Trump Asked Musk to Reverse Starshield Restrictions on Ukraine

The call from the president about the Starshield network came after officials in Ukraine reported that they found new limits on the use of military drones in their war against Russia.

© Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times

A Ukrainian soldier checking a reconnaissance drone before launching it in the Sumy region last fall.
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Zelenskyy names three postwar security guarantees for Ukraine. Even Russia needs one of them, he says

warnings back starlink cap isn’t zelenskyy says ukraine’s two lifelines one restored · post ukrainian president volodymyr interview nbc’s meet press aired 18 2026 ukraine news reports

The hardest part of ending Russia's war is making sure it cannot start it again. As the peace talks have escalated ahead of the US elections, Ukraine is weighing three options for its postwar security.

Among them are NATO membership, direct US guarantees modeled on NATO’s Article 5, and a European “Coalition of the Willing” backed by Washington, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says, according to UNIAN. But none of them have been agreed to yet.

Zelenskyy describes the guarantees as a single package, with each layer still under discussion with partners. All of it, he says, rests on a strong Ukrainian army, in both numbers and quality.

Three guarantees, none of them signed

Everyone counts on NATO, Zelenskyy says, but Kyiv is also negotiating direct guarantees from the US, including an Article 5-style collective-defense clause, alongside the European Coalition of the Willing that would act together with Washington. The arithmetic, he said, is already done.

“Our colleagues in Europe and America know this. We have already calculated everything: both the financing and the corresponding number of our soldiers, so that our state can be at peace,” he states.

Why Zelenskyy says even Russia should want Ukraine in NATO

He went further, arguing that NATO membership would serve not only Ukraine and the Alliance but also Russia.

“I think, honestly, the Russians need our accession to NATO too, because for them that is more security than Ukraine outside NATO,” he claims.

The talks come as Washington pushes toward negotiations. Zelenskyy says he expects signals from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio within a day or two, as well as a call with envoy Steve Witkoff. He adds that Jared Kushner, on his way to Kyiv in November, told him Russia supports a trilateral meeting of the US, Ukraine, and Russia, at the level of technical teams.

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Trump’s Intensifying Sabotage of the ICC, for Israel’s Sake

The battle to save the global court and its capacity to enforce accountability for the most heinous crimes is one struggle with many fronts, writes Marjorie Cohn.

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European Parliament Awards Sakharov Prize to ICC Amid Escalating US Sanctions

The European Parliament has awarded the 2026 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and its officials, recognising the Hague-based tribunal’s work in investigating and prosecuting war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide.

Announcing the decision in Strasbourg on Thursday, 22 October, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said the award reflected the European Union’s commitment to multilateralism and international institutions.

Metsola praised the Court for its work in upholding international law and justice. The announcement was met with a standing ovation in the parliamentary chamber.

The decision comes amid an escalating confrontation between the European Union and the administration of US President Donald Trump over the ICC’s jurisdiction and independence.

Washington’s sanctions against the Court

On 9 October, the United States imposed sanctions on the ICC as an institution, extending measures previously directed against individual judges and prosecutors.

The restrictions place the Court under the US Treasury’s sanctions regime, limiting financial transactions involving American individuals, businesses and institutions. Washington has issued several temporary and limited exemptions intended to allow specified operations to continue.

The measures followed earlier sanctions against senior ICC officials, including Court President Tomoko Akane, and form part of Washington’s campaign to prevent the tribunal from exercising jurisdiction over American personnel.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has argued that the ICC threatens American sovereignty by asserting authority over nationals of countries that have not accepted its founding treaty.

The Court rejected the latest restrictions, describing them as an attempt to obstruct the administration of international justice.

Established under the Rome Statute, the ICC operates independently of national governments and investigates serious international crimes where its jurisdictional requirements are satisfied.

Neither the United States nor Israel is a party to the Rome Statute.

Arrest warrants involving Russia and Israel

The dispute with Washington has intensified since the ICC issued arrest warrants in November 2024 for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity connected with military operations in Gaza.

Israel rejects the Court’s jurisdiction and disputes the allegations. Washington has similarly opposed the proceedings against Israeli officials.

The ICC has also pursued investigations into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In March 2023, its judges issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova, Russia’s commissioner for children’s rights, over the alleged unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children.

Further warrants followed in 2024 against senior Russian military commanders and officials in connection with attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.

The proceedings demonstrate the geographical scope of the Court’s investigations, although its ability to secure arrests depends heavily on cooperation from individual states.

The ICC has no independent police force and relies on national authorities to execute its warrants.

European Parliament backs international justice

The ICC’s nomination for the Sakharov Prize was submitted by the Socialists and Democrats group in the European Parliament.

Its selection comes as European lawmakers examine how the EU should respond to American sanctions affecting the Court and organisations supporting its activities.

The October restrictions have raised practical questions about access to banking, technology services and other infrastructure required by the tribunal.

European governments must also consider how to support an institution established through an international treaty while maintaining relations with Washington.

The Sakharov Prize carries no legal authority to reverse American sanctions or compel governments to cooperate with ICC investigations. Nevertheless, the award represents an explicit institutional endorsement of the tribunal at a time when its operations face increasing external pressure.

Other nominees and award ceremony

The ICC was selected from three finalists announced earlier this month.

The other nominees were Tanzanian opposition leader Tundu Lissu and Iranian sisters Taraneh and Romina Rahimi, whose cases have attracted international attention over political persecution and judicial proceedings.

The Sakharov Prize, established by the European Parliament in 1988, is named after Soviet physicist, dissident and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Andrei Sakharov.

It recognises individuals and organisations defending human rights, freedom of expression and fundamental liberties. The award includes €50,000.

Previous recipients include Nelson Mandela, Malala Yousafzai and imprisoned journalists.

In 2025, the prize was awarded jointly to Belarusian journalist Andrzej Poczobut and Georgian journalist Mzia Amaglobeli.

The formal presentation of the 2026 prize is scheduled for 16 December at the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

The award places the ICC alongside previous Sakharov laureates while drawing further attention to the unresolved dispute between Washington and European governments over international criminal jurisdiction.

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When Starshield Cut Out, Ukrainian Drones Fell From the Skies

Ukraine says it still doesn’t know why the military satellite internet service, a sister to Starlink, was abruptly throttled, leaving troops vulnerable to Russian attacks.

© Reuters

A Ukrainian soldier flying a drone in the Donetsk region last week. Members of the military have reported issues with drone connectivity since Starshield was disrupted.
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The secret terms of Trump’s Venezuelan oil deal

In late August, President Donald Trump announced what he called the “biggest oil deal in world history.” Since then, the full text of the accord — which grants the U.S. sweeping access to Venezuela’s oil reserves — has been one of the most sought-after secrets in Washington, DC.  ProPublica has reviewed a copy of the […]

The post The secret terms of Trump’s Venezuelan oil deal appeared first on Asia Times.

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Marco Rubio. Encontro entre Zelensky e Witkoff foi positivo

Iniciativa diplomática de Witkoff ocorre após uma semana de forte tensão entre a Ucrânia e os Estados Unidos, sobretudo no que diz respeito à partilha de informações e às comunicações via SpaceX.

© ALEXANDROS BELTES/EPA

Ao abordar as negociações diplomáticas em curso, Rubio observou que no centro delas estão as zonas do Donbass que a Rússia reivindica
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Rubio’s Central Asia pitch is about more than minerals

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Samarkand on October 19 with nearly 300 American business leaders, seeking to deepen US commercial ties with Central Asia. Washington’s renewed interest will matter less for how many agreements it produces than for whether American investment helps the region move beyond being merely a supplier of raw […]

The post Rubio’s Central Asia pitch is about more than minerals appeared first on Asia Times.

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Trump Presses Ukraine Towards a Settlement Putin May Have No Intention of Accepting

Talks in Oslo have restored diplomatic contact between Kyiv and Washington, but Donald Trump continues to demand concessions from Ukraine while Moscow shows little willingness to compromise. Steve Witkoff’s forthcoming meeting with Russian officials will expose the limits of the American peace initiative.

The latest negotiations over Russia’s war against Ukraine have produced a renewed diplomatic initiative, with US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff preparing to travel to St Petersburg on Wednesday, 21 October, following consultations with Ukrainian and European leaders in Oslo.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met Witkoff alongside Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb on Tuesday. Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law, participated remotely. The discussions covered territorial questions, security guarantees, sanctions and proposals for a partial ceasefire.

The meeting concluded with cautious expressions of optimism. Stubb suggested that the negotiating process was back on track, while Støre confirmed that Witkoff would present proposals developed by American, Ukrainian and European representatives to the Russian leadership.

However, the diplomatic improvement contrasts with Trump’s renewed public pressure on Zelenskyy, raising questions about Washington’s negotiating strategy and whether Moscow has any intention of accepting the proposed settlement.

Washington’s contradictory signals

Speaking in the Oval Office on Tuesday, Trump again insisted that Ukraine must reach an agreement with Russia, portraying Moscow’s military position as increasingly advantageous.

His remarks closely resembled arguments advanced during earlier disputes with Zelenskyy, when Washington pressed Kyiv to accept territorial concessions rather than increase pressure on the Kremlin.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio sought to reassure the Ukrainian leadership that American military cooperation had not been deliberately restricted.

Rubio denied that Trump had ordered changes to intelligence-sharing or weapons assistance. Zelenskyy subsequently confirmed that Ukraine was again receiving American early-warning intelligence concerning Russian ballistic missile attacks.

Nevertheless, serious problems remain. Ukraine has reported delays in deliveries of American-made Patriot interceptors purchased by European allies, while restrictions affecting the military Starshield satellite communications system have not been fully resolved.

These difficulties are particularly serious as Russia intensifies attacks against Ukrainian electricity infrastructure, attempting to undermine civilian services ahead of winter.

The conflicting signals leave Kyiv negotiating with an administration whose diplomatic representatives promise continued cooperation while its president publicly demands Ukrainian concessions.

Security guarantees without NATO membership

Among the proposals discussed in Oslo were security arrangements intended to provide Ukraine with protection comparable to NATO’s Article 5 collective-defence provision.

Zelenskyy acknowledged that American representatives had discussed such guarantees, although their precise obligations and enforcement mechanisms remain undisclosed.

The proposal presents a fundamental negotiating problem.

Russia has consistently opposed Ukrainian NATO membership, partly because the alliance’s collective-defence commitments would increase the consequences of any renewed Russian aggression.

An alternative arrangement offering genuinely comparable protection would consequently encounter many of the same Russian objections.

Conversely, guarantees lacking a credible enforcement mechanism would leave Ukraine exposed to another attack after a ceasefire.

Moscow’s record provides little reassurance. Russia violated Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders in 2014 and launched its full-scale invasion in 2022 despite previous commitments to respect Ukrainian sovereignty.

The Kremlin’s objectives extend beyond territory

Washington’s approach appears increasingly concentrated on securing an agreement involving territorial concessions and restrictions on Ukraine’s future security arrangements.

Yet Putin’s objectives have consistently extended beyond the territories occupied by Russian forces.

The Kremlin has demanded constraints on Ukraine’s military capabilities, international alliances and strategic independence. Accepting territorial gains alone would not necessarily satisfy Moscow’s wider political ambitions.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has maintained that Moscow is unwilling to make substantial political concessions, while the Kremlin continues to insist that any agreement must address what it describes as the underlying causes of the conflict.

Those conditions have previously included demands that would substantially restrict Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Consequently, even a Ukrainian willingness to consider elements of Washington’s proposals would not guarantee Russian acceptance.

The political calculation behind an energy ceasefire

One possibility under consideration is a limited ceasefire protecting energy and potentially food-related infrastructure.

Zelenskyy has indicated that Ukraine could suspend attacks against Russian energy facilities if Moscow stopped striking Ukrainian infrastructure.

Such an arrangement could reduce immediate civilian suffering. It would also have military and economic consequences.

Ukrainian attacks against Russian refineries, oil terminals and other energy installations have increasingly targeted infrastructure supporting Moscow’s war economy.

A temporary suspension could allow Russia to repair damaged facilities, restore production and stabilise export revenues. Without credible monitoring and enforcement, Moscow could exploit a limited agreement while leaving the wider conflict unresolved.

Trump has additional reasons to seek a rapid diplomatic result. With American congressional elections scheduled for 3 November, his administration is attempting to contain domestic fuel prices and demonstrate progress towards ending the war.

His recent decision to ease restrictions on Russian diesel exports has already provoked concern in Kyiv and European capitals over the potential financial benefits to Moscow.

The danger for Ukraine is that an agreement presented as a diplomatic achievement in Washington could provide Russia with economic relief without altering its military objectives.

The decision awaiting Washington

Witkoff’s visit to St Petersburg will establish whether Moscow is prepared to engage with the proposals developed in Oslo.

Putin could accept a temporary arrangement, particularly one suspending Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, while postponing discussions over territorial and political questions.

Alternatively, Moscow could reject the initiative and maintain its existing demands.

In either case, Washington will face a decision over the consequences of Russian intransigence.

For Kyiv, continued engagement with the United States remains essential because American intelligence, satellite communications and advanced air-defence weapons cannot readily be replaced.

But the prospects for a negotiated settlement will depend less on further Ukrainian concessions than on whether Russia faces sufficient political, military and economic pressure to abandon its maximalist demands.

The Oslo negotiations have restored cooperation between Ukraine, Europe and American mediators. They have not established that Putin is prepared to end the war on terms compatible with Ukraine’s continued independence.

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US restores ballistic missile warnings to Ukraine after a week without advance notice before Russian attacks, Zelenskyy says

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 20 October 2026. Photo: Zelenskyy / Telegram

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the US has restored intelligence sharing with Ukraine, including advance warnings of Russian ballistic missile launches, following talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The lack of advance warnings came amid reports that the Trump administration had threatened to suspend intelligence sharing and weapons supplies unless Kyiv halted attacks on Russian oil refineries. US intelligence usually alerts Ukraine to ballistic missile launches before air raid sirens sound, giving the country time to warn civilians and prepare its air defenses. Russian ballistic missiles can reach Kyiv within minutes, making early notice critical to protecting lives.

Zelenskyy made the announcement on 20 October during a press conference broadcast by Suspilne. He said he had spoken with Rubio earlier that morning while traveling to Oslo, discussing intelligence, Starlink satellite communications, missile interceptors, and Patriot air defense systems.

“We discussed sensitive issues, including Starlink, interceptors, which are very important, and intelligence. We were very specific; the conversation was very positive,” Zelenskyy said.

He added that he plans to speak with Rubio again within the next 48 hours.

On 18 October, Zelenskyy also said that US warnings had returned, which turned out not to be true as Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv that evening before air raid sirens sounded.

Kyiv went days without advance warnings of Russian missiles

The warning gaps began with Russian ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv on 12 October and continued through 19 October. During the attacks on 12 and 13 October, Ukraine received no advance warning from its partners, with air raid alerts sounding only after the attacks had begun.

The problem persisted during subsequent attacks. Overnight on 18–19 October, Russia attacked Kyiv in two waves. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said no warning arrived before the first wave, around 23:00. Information arrived before the second wave, around 03:00, but left little time to respond.

Advance intelligence on ballistic missile launches is particularly important because these missiles can reach their targets within minutes, leaving little time for civilians to seek shelter.

Washington denies suspending intelligence sharing

US President Donald Trump previously denied that Washington had stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, despite the missing warnings. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also rejected claims of a suspension, pointing to a software problem in Ukraine's early-warning system. 

However, the disruptions came amid reports that the Trump administration had threatened to suspend intelligence sharing and weapons supplies unless Kyiv halted attacks on Russian oil refineries. The Financial Times reported that Washington was pressuring Ukraine to stop the strikes as part of efforts to secure an energy truce with Russia. 

Ukraine temporarily paused attacks on Russian refineries but said Moscow continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Zelenskyy's latest statement indicates that advance ballistic missile warnings are reaching Ukraine again, although the recent gaps have raised questions about the reliability of a capability critical to protecting civilians.

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Rubio thinks Starlink is fixed. Kyiv says it still cuts out above 161 km/h

rubio

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 20 October that he had spoken with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about ballistic missile interceptors, early warning of Russian launches, and “the situation with Starlink/Starshield, which needs to be restored,” he wrote on X. He thanked Rubio for “his readiness to help and his clear position” and said they would speak again soon. A day earlier, he had told US senators how each of those supplies had stalled.

This comes as the US presses Kyiv to stop its strikes on Russian oil refineries, which Trump has blamed for high fuel prices at home, and Zelenskyy counts the Starlink slowdown among the steps he says look like an effort to push Ukraine to capitulate. Ukraine’s interceptor drones depend on the service to hunt Russia’s jet-powered Shaheds, and Kyiv says they now lose the link at speeds too low to catch them. The call appears not to have settled whether that cap is gone. If it stays, Ukrainian cities could face Russia’s drone waves this winter with one fewer means to stop them, as Russia keeps striking the grid.

On 17 October, Rubio told reporters that nobody in the US ordered Starlink slowed, that the slowdown “wasn’t deliberate,” and that “my understanding is it’s been restored.” He drew a line between the two services. Ukraine’s drones, he said, ran on commercial Starlink, while Starshield, the military version, is not available to Ukraine. Kyiv has asked for it to carry out strikes deep inside Russia, and that request is under discussion, he said.

The next day, Zelenskyy told Bloomberg that Starlink in Ukraine cuts out above 161 km/h, and Kyiv says its Starshield terminals are capped as well. His post after the call still says the service needs to be restored.

Reuters’ sources point to the White House. Washington denies it

The order to slow Starshield came from inside the White House, Reuters reported, citing two US officials and a Western official. They described it as the Starshield service for the Ukrainian military, the version Rubio says Ukraine does not have. A senior Ukrainian official told Reuters that Kyiv had been told it was a White House decision. A senior US official told the agency the president never made such a request, and the White House did not answer whether other officials had. Rubio called a report that the White House ordered Starlink slowed “categorically false.”

Missile warnings and Patriots are also in dispute

Overnight on 18–19 October, Ukraine got no partner warning before the first of two Russian ballistic waves, Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said on the national telethon. That came hours after Zelenskyy said US warnings had resumed. On 19 October, Rubio pushed back against suggestions of a pause in US intelligence sharing, AFP reported.

Zelenskyy also told Bloomberg the US sends only 12 Patriot interceptors a month and has authorized only part of those “we have paid for” under PURL. Ukrainian officials told the Kyiv Independent that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has not signed the contracts. A US government official called those claims “not true.”

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